Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [18] Core Viewpoints - The capital market in China has been sluggish for the past three years, but recent policy measures announced on September 24, including a 50 basis point reserve requirement cut and other financial incentives, have led to a significant market rally [4][6] - Major indices have recorded historic gains, with the Shenzhen Component Index rising 17.83% in a week, marking the largest weekly increase since 2000, and the ChiNext Index achieving a 22.71% weekly gain, also a record [4][6] - Investor sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish in the short term, with 84% of surveyed institutional investors expecting further market increases [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a peak of 3731.69 points on February 18, 2021, before declining to 2635.09 points on February 5, 2024, representing a maximum drop of 29.39% [6] - The trading volume surged dramatically, with a record total turnover of 2.59 trillion yuan on September 30, 2024, surpassing the previous high of 2.36 trillion yuan on May 28, 2015 [4][6] Investor Sentiment - A survey of 422 institutional investors revealed that 84% are bullish on the short-term market outlook, while 14% expect a wide range of fluctuations, and only 2% anticipate a downturn [5][6] - There is a split opinion on whether the current rally is a rebound or a reversal, with 52% believing it is a reversal [8] Future Expectations - Investors expect the market to oscillate within a range of ±200 points, with 80% identifying 3000 points as a strong support level [11][12] - The sectors expected to perform well include consumption, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), cyclical stocks, and manufacturing, with consumption and TMT being particularly favored due to their significant declines over the past three years [12][13]

证券研究报告 海外 行业专题报告 证券分析师 朱芸 S1350524070001 zhuyun@huayuanstock.com 研究支持 联系人 市场表现： 2024 年 10 月 6 日 节后港股配置思路 投资要点： ➢ 国庆假期期间看多情绪升温，港股表现较好、美股市场看多中国资产指标精确。国庆 假期间，恒生指数、恒生科技指数涨幅分别为 7.59%、4.77%，成交量分别达到 10059 亿港元、2779 亿港元，延续假期前上涨趋势。细分各板块表现看，资讯科技、非必 需性消费、能源、医疗、地产建筑、金融涨幅居前，分别达到 9.05%、8.55%、8.15%、 8.04%、7.89%、7.39%。从成交量看，非必需性消费和金融关注度最高，分别达到 2407 亿港元、1916 亿港元。美股市场情绪较好，以富时中国 A50 指数为锚的多个 做多杠杆 ETF 在美股市场涨幅较高，基于港美股市场情绪表现，我们认为下周 A 股 大概率会延续节前强势表现。 ➢ 配置思路 1：折价金融、地产链等国央企。在 A/H 两地上市的公司大多数为优质国 央企，两地市场股价存在折价情况。我们梳理了当前在 A/H 股上市且市值大于百亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [3][34]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical market has shown significant performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 25.5% and the pharmaceutical index increasing by 28.1% during the observed period. The report suggests focusing on undervalued sectors such as CXO and consumer healthcare, as well as medical devices, which are expected to rebound in 2025 [3][4][28]. - The report highlights that the pharmaceutical index has declined by 7.18% year-to-date, but is currently at a historical low valuation, making it an opportune time for strategic investments [4][28]. - Key investment themes include innovation in pharmaceuticals and medical devices, international market expansion, aging population healthcare needs, high-barrier industries, domestic substitution, and smaller, high-potential companies [28]. Summary by Sections Weekly Highlights - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index rose by 15.86%, with notable individual stock performances including Tigermed (+32%) and Kanglong Chemical (+31%) during the National Day holiday period [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the CXO sector and suggests monitoring undervalued A-share assets in this area [4][7]. Industry Perspective - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a rebound, with a notable increase in stock prices across various segments, particularly in medical services and medical devices [12][16]. - The report indicates that the pharmaceutical index has outperformed the broader market in the short term, with a 11.15% increase in the last week [12][16]. Investment Recommendations - Suggested stocks for investment include innovative pharmaceutical companies such as Heng Rui Medicine and Kanglong Chemical, as well as companies focusing on international markets like Mindray Medical and Yuyue Medical [28]. - The report also recommends monitoring companies that cater to the aging population and those in high-barrier industries, as well as smaller firms with strong growth potential [28].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [3]. Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market has seen a significant increase in core asset prices, surpassing $65,000, influenced by global liquidity and stimulus measures from China [5][20]. - Meta has launched its first AR glasses prototype, Orion, integrating AI and AR into daily life, which is expected to lead the next generation of computing technology [3][16]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose over 20% this week, indicating strong performance in the tech sector [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas AI - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 4453.2, with a weekly increase of 20.2%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 7.2 percentage points [8]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 4.3%, closing at 5217.2, also outperforming the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices [8]. 2. Web3 and Cryptocurrency Market - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies reached $2.32 trillion as of September 28, 2024, up from $2.20 trillion the previous week [20]. - The total trading volume for cryptocurrencies was $77 billion, accounting for 3.31% of the total market capitalization [20]. - Year-to-date, the total trading volume for cryptocurrencies has accumulated to $21.70 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 192.25% [20]. - The sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is currently neutral, with the Fear and Greed Index at 56.67 [20]. 3. Key Events in the Cryptocurrency Market - This week, core asset spot ETFs in the cryptocurrency market recorded net inflows, totaling $1.107 billion for the week [25]. - Significant individual stock performances included Cipher Mining (+42%), BitFuFu (+26%), and Microstrategy (+22%) [23][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the public utility sector, particularly green electricity [4]. Core Insights - The market recovery is favorable for green electricity, supported by the recent announcement of six merger and acquisition guidelines by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) [4][5]. - The liquidity and risk appetite in the market have improved, benefiting the green electricity sector. The central bank's measures, including the creation of 500 billion yuan in securities and fund swap facilities, are expected to enhance institutional funding capabilities [4][9]. - The report emphasizes that the valuation recovery for green electricity may not solely depend on the absolute increase in Internal Rate of Return (IRR), but rather on the enhancement of IRR certainty under multiple policy supports and improved market risk appetite [4][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Recovery and M&A Guidelines - The report highlights that the recent market recovery is beneficial for the green electricity sector, with the CSRC's new M&A guidelines expected to facilitate asset restructuring among state-owned enterprises in the electricity sector [4][5]. - The guidelines aim to optimize restructuring review processes and enhance market activity, which could lead to increased asset securitization rates among major power groups [5]. 2. Green Electricity Sector Insights - The report identifies key recommended stocks in the green electricity sector, including Longyuan Power, Datang New Energy, CGN New Energy, and China Power, suggesting that these companies are undervalued and have significant upside potential [4][18]. - The report notes that the green electricity sector is currently experiencing a decline in valuation due to market risk aversion, but anticipates a recovery as market conditions improve [4][18]. 3. Resource Recycling Group - The establishment of the China Resource Recycling Group is expected to accelerate the development of a waste recycling system, enhancing resource recovery efficiency and addressing challenges faced by recycling enterprises [6][5]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like High Energy Environment, Greeenme, and BWS for potential investment opportunities in this emerging sector [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the transportation industry as of October 6, 2024 [3]. Core Views - The transportation sector is expected to benefit from cyclical recovery, particularly in aviation and logistics, which show significant elasticity [3]. - The shipping industry is experiencing a tightening supply due to limited new orders for oil tankers and an aging fleet, which is likely to enhance demand over the next three years [7]. - The express delivery and logistics sectors are closely tied to macroeconomic growth, with expectations for continued recovery and valuation improvements [5][8]. - The aviation sector is witnessing a strong recovery in passenger demand, particularly during the National Day holiday, indicating robust travel trends [6][30]. Summary by Sections Shipping - Labor negotiations have temporarily resolved wage disputes at East Coast ports, but further negotiations on automation remain a risk [3]. - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has decreased by 9.8% week-on-week, indicating a drop in shipping rates [3]. - The MR-TC2&14 Atlantic basket freight rate has surged by 4034 USD/day, reflecting strong demand in that segment [4]. - The oil tanker market is expected to see sustained improvement due to increasing non-OPEC production and limited new orders [7]. Express and Logistics - The express delivery sector is showing resilience, with a year-on-year growth of 28.9% in business volume as of August 2024 [16]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the logistics sector, particularly for companies like DeBang and AnNeng Logistics, which are expected to benefit from strategic improvements [5][8]. - The chemical logistics sector is anticipated to grow alongside the recovery in the chemical industry, with increasing demand for third-party logistics [5]. Aviation - Passenger traffic in the civil aviation sector has increased by over 10% year-on-year during the early days of the National Day holiday, indicating strong travel demand [6]. - The aviation industry is expected to experience improved performance due to a favorable supply-demand balance and ongoing recovery in international routes [7]. - Key airlines such as Spring Airlines and China Eastern Airlines are highlighted as companies to watch due to their potential for profitability in the current cycle [7][8]. Road and Rail - In August 2024, road passenger traffic increased by 140.39% year-on-year, while freight volume saw a modest increase of 0.94% [25]. - Rail passenger traffic also showed growth, with a 10.58% increase year-on-year, indicating a recovery in this segment as well [25]. Market Overview - The A-share transportation index has shown a significant increase of 18.49% over the past week, reflecting positive market sentiment [13][15]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the transportation industry, with various segments poised for recovery as economic conditions improve [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its stock performance [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is initiating a significant asset restructuring, aiming to enhance its position as a clean energy leader by acquiring shares in Yuanda Environmental through its hydroelectric assets [3]. - The restructuring aligns with national policies promoting state-owned enterprise reforms and capital market improvements, capitalizing on a favorable regulatory environment [3]. - Following the restructuring, the company will establish a red-chip structure, with Yuanda Environmental serving as the platform for integrating hydroelectric assets, while the company will operate as a comprehensive clean energy platform [3][4]. - The company’s valuation is currently at a low price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.76, suggesting potential undervaluation in the market, especially in light of recent capital increases from institutional investors [4][3]. - The earnings forecast for the company remains strong, with projected net profits of 48.1 billion, 56.6 billion, and 64.1 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10, 8, and 7 [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is part of the State Power Investment Corporation and is focused on integrating its coal, hydro, and renewable energy assets to create a leading clean energy platform [3][4]. Financial Data - As of September 30, 2024, the company's closing price is HKD 3.71, with a market capitalization of HKD 459 billion and a PB ratio of 0.76 [2]. - The total assets amount to 325,581 million RMB, with net assets of 100,271 million RMB, translating to a net asset value per share of 4.46 RMB [2]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 44,262 million RMB in 2023 to 58,543 million RMB by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.2% [5]. - The net profit is expected to increase significantly, with a forecasted growth rate of 80.8% in 2024 compared to 2023 [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [2][11]. Core Insights - The company has been included in the Hang Seng Composite Index, effective September 10, 2024, which is expected to enhance its visibility and trading volume [1]. - The company has shown robust operational performance, with a 30% year-on-year increase in student enrollment, reaching approximately 130,000 students [1]. - The company is expanding its management services for schools, having signed contracts for eight managed schools this year, which is anticipated to create a second growth avenue [1]. - Revenue and profit have experienced significant growth, with FY2024H1 revenue reaching 1.645 billion RMB, a 73.8% increase year-on-year, and adjusted net profit of 319 million RMB, up 70% [1]. - The company has initiated a share buyback program, repurchasing 3.847 million shares at HKD 3.35 per share, reflecting management's confidence in the company's long-term prospects [1]. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 3.315 billion RMB, 4.536 billion RMB, and 6.014 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 43.97%, 36.8%, and 32.6% respectively [3][4]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 544 million RMB, 752 million RMB, and 1.029 billion RMB, with growth rates of 48.9%, 38.1%, and 36.8% respectively [3][4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 17X, 12X, and 9X, which are below the average PE ratios of comparable companies [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the building materials sector from "Neutral" to "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The real estate industry is expected to reach a turning point due to recent significant policy announcements, indicating a shift in attitude from the top levels of government [3] - The building materials sector is identified as a key area for investment as the real estate policies reverse, with historical data supporting this view [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of three factors in stabilizing the real estate market: reducing constraints, supply adjustments, and deleveraging [3][4] Summary by Sections Sector Tracking - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 12.8%, while the building materials index increased by 18.6% during the same period [7] - Key stocks in the building materials sector showed significant gains, with the top five performers including King Kong Photovoltaic (+34.7%) and Weixing New Materials (+30.2%) [7] Data Tracking - Cement prices averaged 386.0 CNY/ton, up 4.5 CNY/ton month-on-month and up 26.7 CNY/ton year-on-year [14] - The average price of 5mm float glass was 1268.4 CNY/ton, down 48.8 CNY/ton month-on-month and down 932.7 CNY/ton year-on-year [24] - The price of carbon fiber remained stable, with large tow carbon fiber priced at 72.5 CNY/kg, unchanged month-on-month but down 5.0 CNY/kg year-on-year [37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [3][34]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector has shown significant recovery, with the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index rising by 15.7% and the pharmaceutical index increasing by 15.28% in the recent week. Notably, medical services and consumer healthcare assets have rebounded strongly, with individual stocks like Aier Eye Hospital and Zhifei Biological seeing gains exceeding 30% [3][10]. - The report suggests that the pharmaceutical market will experience differentiation in performance moving forward, with specific focus on companies expected to report strong Q3 earnings and those positioned for valuation recovery [4][8]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Performance - The pharmaceutical index rose by 15.28% this week, with 491 stocks increasing in value and only 3 declining. Medical services (+21.1%), biological products (+16.8%), and traditional Chinese medicine (+15.1%) performed particularly well, while chemical preparations (+12.5%) and pharmaceutical commerce (+14.3%) lagged behind [3][10][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring Q3 earnings reports, particularly for companies like Jiutian Pharmaceutical and Baiyang Pharmaceutical, which are expected to show rapid growth. It also highlights the potential for recovery in the medical device sector by 2025, suggesting a focus on companies like Kaili Medical and Mindray Medical [4][8][27]. - The report identifies several key investment themes, including innovative drugs, overseas expansion, and aging population-related healthcare consumption. Specific companies recommended include Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, He Huang Pharmaceutical, and Yuyue Medical [4][27][28]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - As of September 27, 2024, the overall PE valuation for the pharmaceutical sector stands at 29.18X, indicating that valuations are at historical lows despite recent recoveries. The report notes that while some segments like chemical raw materials have higher valuations, others like pharmaceutical commerce remain relatively low [20][28]. Selected Investment Portfolio - The report lists a current investment portfolio including Kaili Medical, Mcland, Sanor Biological, and Baiyang Pharmaceutical, reflecting a strategic focus on companies with strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [4][28].