Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the public utility sector for Q3 2024 [4]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a decline in the performance of coal and green electricity sectors, while hydropower shows overall improvement but with regional disparities [4]. - Coal prices have remained stable month-on-month but have increased year-on-year, leading to expected declines in the thermal power sector's performance for Q3 [4]. - The hydropower sector benefits from improved water inflow, with significant increases in generation reported for major hydropower plants [4][7]. - Nuclear power performance is expected to remain stable, with differences in growth rates attributed to maintenance schedules [4][7]. - The report highlights strong investment in the power grid, with a notable increase in investment in electrical infrastructure [10][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Public Utility Sector Q3 Performance Outlook - The coal price has shown a month-on-month stability but a year-on-year increase, leading to a general decline in the thermal power sector's performance for Q3 [4][7]. - The hydropower sector is expected to perform well due to improved water conditions, although some companies like Huaneng Hydropower are forecasted to see declines due to less favorable water inflow [4][7]. - The nuclear power sector is projected to remain stable, with China Nuclear Power's generation down by 2.74% due to maintenance [4][7]. 2. Power Equipment Q3 Performance Outlook - Investment in the power grid has reached a historical high, with a 23.1% year-on-year increase in investment [10][12]. - The report predicts a slowdown in conventional power generation capacity additions, with a peak expected in late 2024 [12][13]. - Specific companies in the power equipment sector are expected to see varied performance, with some like Rigong Nengke showing growth while others like Dongfang Electric may experience slight declines [14][15]. 3. Distributed Photovoltaics Participation in Power Market - The new regulations for distributed photovoltaics are expected to significantly impact the market, emphasizing the need for participation in power trading [17][21]. - The report identifies potential growth areas in source-network-load-storage models and virtual power plants, recommending companies like Guoneng Rixin and Langxin Group for investment [21][22]. 4. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the public utility sector, indicating various ratings and expected earnings per share for 2024 [22].

证券研究报告 金属与材料|有色金属 行业定期报告 证券分析师 田源 S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 联系人 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 相关研究 2024 年 10 月 13 日 美国 9 月就业和通胀数据超预期，金价高位震荡 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（24/9/30-24/10/11） 投资要点： ➢ 贵金属板块：美国 9 月就业和通胀数据超预期，市场开始定价 11 月降息 25BP 并交易再通胀预期，金价 高位震荡。伦敦现货黄金下跌 0.49%、上期所黄金下跌 0.34%、沪金持仓量下跌 11.96%，伦敦现货白银 下跌 2.26%、上期所白银下跌 2.28%、沪银持仓量下跌 9.71%，钯金上涨 6.45%，铂金下跌 1.51%。美 联储 9 月非农数据超预期和失业率低于预期，显示其就业仍具备韧性，同时 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the pharmaceutical industry, indicating a positive outlook for potential investment opportunities [34]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical market experienced a significant pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.25% and the pharmaceutical index down 6.00% from October 8 to October 11, 2024. This decline follows a period of substantial growth, suggesting a market correction [4][14]. - The report highlights that the pharmaceutical sector's performance has been mixed, with certain sub-sectors like innovative drugs showing strong growth, while others like medical services and biological products have faced significant declines [8][31]. - There is an expectation for a recovery in specific segments, particularly in medical devices and traditional Chinese medicine, driven by improved inventory management and policy stabilization [5][11]. Summary by Sections Weekly Analysis - From October 8 to October 11, the pharmaceutical index fell by 6.00%, with 31 stocks rising and 460 stocks declining. The report suggests focusing on companies with strong Q3 performance trends, such as Meihua Medical and Kefu Medical [4][14]. - Sub-sectors like chemical preparations, biological products, and medical devices all showed declines, with the medical services sector down 23.3% year-to-date [19][31]. Sub-sector Outlook - The medical device sector is showing signs of stabilization, with procurement demand recovering and positive bidding data expected in Q4 2024. This sector is anticipated to see continued improvement into 2025 [5][11]. - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is expected to rebound as inventory levels normalize and policy support strengthens, with companies like Yiling Pharmaceutical and Taiji Group highlighted for potential recovery [11][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests strategic investments in sectors poised for growth, including: 1. International expansion: Companies like Mindray Medical and Sinocare are recommended for their potential in overseas markets [31]. 2. Innovative drugs and devices: Firms such as Heng Rui Medicine and Hengrui Medicine are noted for their growth potential in this area [31]. 3. Domestic substitution: Companies like Kaili Medical and Aohua Endoscopy are highlighted for their market opportunities [31]. 4. Aging population and outpatient consumption: Companies like Yuyue Medical and Kunming Pharmaceutical are recommended due to the growing health consumption needs of the elderly [31]. 5. High-barrier industries: Companies in anesthetics and blood products are noted for their stable demand and supply [31]. 6. Small but high-quality firms: Companies like Baiyang Pharmaceutical and Pumen Technology are suggested for their potential valuation recovery [31]. Current Investment Portfolio - The current investment portfolio includes companies such as Hehuang Medicine, Baiyang Pharmaceutical, and Yuyue Medical, reflecting a focus on firms with strong fundamentals and growth potential [6][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, specifically for energy metals and new materials [2][3]. Core Insights - Energy metals are experiencing a weak price trend, with lithium carbonate prices dropping by 1.04% to 76,450 CNY/ton, and hydroxide lithium prices decreasing by 0.29% to 68,425 CNY/ton. Supply has increased steadily since the beginning of the year, but demand has softened due to sufficient downstream inventory [3][14]. - Cobalt prices show mixed trends, with overseas MB cobalt prices falling to 10.80 USD/pound while domestic cobalt prices rose to 181,000 CNY/ton. The supply remains ample, but demand is low, maintaining an oversupply situation [3][23]. - The rare earth permanent magnet market is seeing fluctuations, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices down by 0.92% to 432,000 CNY/ton and dysprosium oxide down by 3.21% to 1,810,000 CNY/ton. The market is expected to stabilize due to recovering orders and reduced supply from mines [3][33]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for soft magnetic materials, driven by the dual demand from the electronics and power sectors, particularly benefiting from trends in renewable energy and AI computing [3][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides key updates on lithium carbonate auction results and joint ventures in lithium projects, indicating ongoing developments in the sector [8][9]. 2. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are under pressure, with carbonate and hydroxide prices declining. The report suggests monitoring companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium for potential investment opportunities [3][14]. - Cobalt prices are fluctuating, with domestic prices showing resilience while international prices decline. Companies like Tengyuan Cobalt and Huayou Cobalt are highlighted for potential investment [3][23]. - Nickel and manganese prices remain stable, but the market is cautious due to rapid price declines affecting profitability [3][29]. - Rare earth prices are experiencing slight declines, but the market outlook remains cautiously optimistic due to recovering demand [3][33]. 3. New Materials - The report notes stable pricing in the power new materials sector, with phosphoric acid and lithium iron phosphate prices holding steady. Companies in this space are expected to benefit from ongoing technological advancements [3][44][49].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.07 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.5% [3] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.4%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders was 330 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [3] - The net profit margin continued to improve, reaching 26.5% in Q3 2024, up from 25.5% in H1 2024, indicating strong long-term growth potential for the company as a leader in the blood products industry [3] - The company has significantly increased its plasma collection stations, with 102 stations as of mid-2024, up from 59 at the end of 2020, and a plasma collection volume of 1,294 tons in H1 2024, a 15% year-on-year increase [3][4] - The introduction of new products, such as the fourth-generation chromatography immunoglobulin, is expected to enhance profit margins significantly [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company is projected to have a net profit of 1.3 billion yuan, with growth rates of 17.5%, 19.5%, and 19.0% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6] - The total revenue for 2024 is estimated at 5.493 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.0% [6] Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading player in the blood products sector, with a strong backing from its controlling shareholder, China National Pharmaceutical Group [3][4] - The company has demonstrated robust capabilities in acquiring new plasma collection stations, which is crucial for sustaining future performance [3] Product Development - The company has several products in the pipeline, including those in clinical trials, which are expected to enhance its product portfolio and profitability [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses the historical context of the dollar's dominance and the current challenges it faces, particularly in light of increasing U.S. debt and geopolitical tensions, suggesting a potential shift towards de-dollarization and the rise of alternative assets like gold and VIX [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Historical Perspective on Dollar Privilege - The establishment of the Bretton Woods system post-World War II solidified the dollar's status as the global reserve currency, with countries pegging their currencies to the dollar, which was in turn pegged to gold [7] - The U.S. emerged as a financial and industrial powerhouse, with significant gold reserves and a dominant position in global trade [12] 2. Current Challenges Facing the Dollar - The report identifies several unprecedented challenges for the dollar, including rapid increases in U.S. debt, the weaponization of the dollar, diversification of global payment systems, and the strengthening of BRICS nations [3][6] - It highlights that the current situation differs from past challenges, as BRICS countries are not under U.S. military influence and have substantial economic independence [3] 3. Investment Opportunities - The report expresses a positive outlook on gold, VIX, and Chinese assets, predicting that gold prices will rise as U.S. debt supply exceeds demand, leading to higher interest rates [3] - It suggests that the VIX index can be used to protect positions in the current market environment, where economic disparities may lead to significant market corrections [3] - The report anticipates a resurgence of interest in Chinese assets due to strong monetary and fiscal policies aimed at counter-cyclical adjustments [3]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][13]. Core Views - The company is a global leader in copper processing, with ongoing overseas expansion and production line upgrades driving capacity growth [5][10]. - In H1 2024, the company's copper product sales exceeded 500,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 14.04%, and the copper foil segment significantly contributed to net profit [4][5]. - The company plans to invest in new production lines in Morocco, enhancing its global supply chain and market presence [7][10]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of October 9, 2024, the closing price is 8.79 CNY, with a market capitalization of 176.65 billion CNY [2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved copper sales of 506,900 tons, with a net profit contribution from traditional businesses of 7.64 billion CNY, a 3.7% increase year-on-year [4]. - The gross margins for copper pipe, rod, and strip products were 5.78%, 5.56%, and 1.88%, respectively, showing slight declines in some segments [4]. Production Capacity Expansion - The company is upgrading its copper pipe production lines to the fifth generation, with an expected capacity increase from 79.8 million tons to 131 million tons, significantly enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs [10][12]. - The total investment for the upgrades is approximately 76.4 million CNY for new projects and 69.5 million CNY for retrofitting existing lines [10][12]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 13.06 billion CNY, 15.80 billion CNY, and 17.34 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 11, and 10 [13][14]. - The company is compared to peers with average PE ratios of 27, 21, and 17 for the same years, indicating a favorable valuation [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5][8]. Core Views - The company is a leading clean energy enterprise in North China, driven by both wind power and natural gas, with a strong cash flow supporting steady asset growth [3][10]. - The company achieved revenue of CNY 20.282 billion and a net profit of CNY 2.207 billion in 2023, with wind and solar contributing approximately two-thirds of net profit and natural gas contributing about 26% [3][18]. - The report highlights the company's strong cash flow generation capabilities, with operating cash flow at CNY 4.852 billion, which is 1.77 times the net profit, indicating a robust cash creation ability [4][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Wind and Natural Gas Dual-Drive - The company has established a dual-drive business structure focusing on wind and natural gas, with significant growth in installed capacity [16][17]. - As of the end of 2023, the company had a wind power installed capacity of 6,293.75 MW and solar capacity of 126.12 MW, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.5% since 2010 [18][32]. 2. Wind Power: Superior Asset Quality - The company benefits from high-quality wind resources, with an average utilization hour of 2,419 hours in 2023, outperforming the national average [32][34]. - The report notes that the company's wind power and solar segments have a net profit compound annual growth rate of 17.8% from 2010 to 2023 [32][38]. 3. Natural Gas: LNG Supports Sales Growth - The company has diversified its natural gas operations, enhancing its sales structure and profitability through the Tangshan LNG project [3][10]. - In 2023, the company achieved a gas sales volume of 4.503 billion cubic meters, with revenue from natural gas sales reaching CNY 14.027 billion [18][30]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of CNY 2.38 billion, CNY 3.07 billion, and CNY 3.41 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 7.8%, 29.0%, and 11.1% [5][8]. - The intrinsic value of the company is estimated at approximately HKD 27.4 billion, indicating a potential upside of about 49% from the current market value [5][8]. 5. Cash Flow Generation - The company demonstrates strong cash flow generation, with a net cash creation ability of approximately CNY 4.75 billion in 2023, covering 77% of its capital expenditures [4][23]. - The report emphasizes that the high depreciation and amortization costs primarily from wind power operations do not reflect the true cash generation capacity of the company [4][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the utility sector [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing asset integration within the state-owned electric power sector, particularly focusing on the establishment of the State Power Investment Corporation's (SPIC) nuclear platform and the consolidation of hydro and renewable energy assets [4][7][12] - The report emphasizes the significance of the recent regulatory changes by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aimed at facilitating mergers and acquisitions in the state-owned enterprise sector, which is expected to enhance asset securitization rates and reduce debt levels [4][19] Summary by Sections 1. Establishment of SPIC's Nuclear Platform - SPIC's asset restructuring plan aims to create the third-largest nuclear power platform in China by acquiring controlling stakes in its nuclear energy subsidiary [8][9] - The nuclear assets under SPIC include 9.2 GW of installed capacity, generating annual profits exceeding 3 billion yuan [9][10] 1.1 Establishment of China Power as a Clean Energy Flagship - China Power is set to become the flagship platform for hydro, wind, and solar energy under SPIC, with plans to acquire hydroelectric assets from its subsidiary [12][13] - The group currently holds 14 GW of unlisted hydroelectric assets, with a significant portion located in the Yellow River basin [14][16] 1.2 Regulatory Changes and M&A Opportunities - The CSRC's new guidelines for mergers and acquisitions are expected to streamline the restructuring process for state-owned enterprises, enhancing market activity [19][20] - The report recommends focusing on SPIC's subsidiaries, including China Power and the newly formed platforms, as potential investment opportunities [20][21] 2. EU Battery Carbon Footprint Controversy - The report discusses the delays in the EU's battery carbon footprint regulations, which are crucial for the electric vehicle market [23][24] - China's average carbon emission factor for electricity generation is significantly higher than that of major European countries, which may impact its competitiveness in the global market [27][29] 2.1 Strategic Recommendations - The report suggests that integrating renewable energy sources and establishing a green certificate market will be essential for adapting to international policies [29] - It highlights investment opportunities in undervalued renewable energy companies in both Hong Kong and A-share markets, including Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy [29]

Group 1: Policy Impact on Consumption - The report highlights that multiple government departments have launched significant policies aimed at driving consumption recovery, including financial support for high-quality economic development and measures to enhance market liquidity [5][6][8] - The central bank is expected to lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the financial market, with potential further reductions based on market liquidity conditions [5][8] - Local governments are actively implementing consumption promotion policies, such as "trade-in" programs and consumption vouchers, which are expected to enhance consumer willingness and ability to spend [5][9] Group 2: Performance of Beauty and Textile Industries - The report notes that the Shenwan Beauty and Personal Care Index rose by 43.55% from September 24 to September 30, outperforming the CSI 300 by 21.27 percentage points, ranking second among 31 industry indices [12][17] - The Shenwan Textile and Apparel Index increased by 22.39% during the same period, but has seen a cumulative decline of 8.57% in 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 by 25.67 percentage points [12][17] Group 3: Insights and Investment Recommendations for Beauty and Textile Sectors - In the beauty sector, the report suggests focusing on undervalued stocks with strong fundamentals and growth certainty, such as Proya and Juzhibio, as the domestic brand revenue share in the cosmetics market has risen to 57% in H1 2024 [19][20] - The textile sector is advised to prioritize stocks with strong brand potential and those benefiting from macroeconomic policies, with recommendations including Anta Sports and Wah Lee Group, as the sector is expected to experience valuation recovery [20][21]