Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a favorable investment environment [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the domestic policy easing has exceeded expectations, leading to significant price increases in industrial metals. The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to further support metal prices, particularly gold and copper [4][5][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached historical highs, with London spot gold rising by 2.15% to a peak of $2,685 per ounce. The market anticipates a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November, contributing to the bullish sentiment in gold [4][21]. - Silver prices also saw increases, with London spot silver up by 1.92% [21]. 2. Copper - Copper prices surged, with London copper increasing by 4.83% and Shanghai copper by 3.88%. The report notes a significant reduction in copper inventories, with Shanghai copper stocks down by 14.87% [5][28]. - The report indicates that the copper smelting profit margin has narrowed, with a loss of 1,236 RMB per ton, reflecting improved market conditions [28]. 3. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose, with London aluminum up by 4.75% and Shanghai aluminum by 1.42%. The report mentions a decrease in aluminum inventories and an increase in alumina prices, which supports the profitability of aluminum producers [5][36]. - The profit margin for aluminum companies increased to 2,849 RMB per ton, indicating a positive trend in the sector [36]. 4. Minor Metals - The report notes mixed price movements in minor metals, with some prices increasing, such as germanium and silicon manganese, while others like titanium and molybdenum saw declines. The report suggests monitoring specific companies in this sector for potential investment opportunities [6]. 5. Market Performance - The report states that the non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 12.91% compared to the index's 12.81% rise [14][15]. 6. Valuation Changes - The report indicates that the TTM PE ratio for the non-ferrous metals sector is 19.44, reflecting a 2.24 increase, while the PB ratio stands at 2.09, up by 0.24 [19][20]. 7. Economic Indicators - The report discusses macroeconomic indicators, including a lower-than-expected PMI in the U.S. and a decrease in initial jobless claims, which may influence market sentiment and investment decisions in the metals sector [11][12]. 8. Policy Impacts - The report emphasizes the impact of recent monetary policy changes in China, including interest rate cuts and liquidity support measures, which are expected to bolster demand for metals [11][12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating an expectation of outperforming the overall market [2][58]. Core Insights - The report highlights a weak overall trend in energy metal prices, with lithium carbonate prices increasing by 1.82% to 75,550 CNY/ton, while hydroxide lithium prices decreased by 0.87% to 68,675 CNY/ton. The supply side shows a steady increase in lithium carbonate production since the beginning of the year, although there was a slight decline in August. Demand has stabilized, leading to a relatively quiet spot market [2][15]. - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and Yongxing Materials due to their potential in the current market environment [2]. - The cobalt market shows mixed price movements, with overseas MB cobalt prices rising to 10.98 USD/pound and domestic cobalt prices increasing to 172,000 CNY/ton. However, the supply remains ample, and demand is relatively low [2][21]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing demand for soft magnetic materials driven by the electronics and power sectors, particularly benefiting from trends in renewable energy and AI computing [2][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Important developments include Enjie Co., Ltd. planning a 2 billion CNY investment in a lithium battery separator project in Malaysia, and Wanrun New Energy's subsidiary planning a 168 million USD investment in a lithium iron phosphate project in the USA [7]. 2. Energy Metals - Lithium prices: Spodumene increased by 2.95% to 769 USD/ton, lithium carbonate rose by 1.82% to 75,550 CNY/ton, while hydroxide lithium fell by 0.87% to 68,675 CNY/ton [15]. - Cobalt prices: Domestic cobalt prices increased to 172,000 CNY/ton, while sulfuric cobalt dropped to 28,300 CNY/ton [21]. - Nickel and manganese prices remained stable, with sulfuric manganese at 6,100 CNY/ton and sulfuric nickel at 28,100 CNY/ton [26]. - Rare earth prices: Praseodymium-neodymium oxide rose by 1.30% to 428,000 CNY/ton, while dysprosium oxide increased by 0.57% to 1,770,000 CNY/ton [30]. 3. New Materials - In the new materials sector, lithium iron phosphate prices increased to 32,900 CNY/ton, while the price of hexafluorophosphate lithium rose to 55,500 CNY/ton [41]. - The report notes a stable trend in photovoltaic materials, with silver paste prices increasing by 4.89% to 7,726 CNY/kg [46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the shipping sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a shift in Saudi Arabia's oil price strategy, moving away from a target of $100 per barrel to regain market share, which may positively impact oil shipping demand [3]. - The ongoing production cuts by OPEC+ have led to a significant reduction in global oil production share, from 33.2% in 2022 to an expected 31.8% by Q2 2024, creating a complex situation for Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ [3]. - The report anticipates that if OPEC+ releases its production cuts, it could lead to an increase in VLCC shipping volumes by 3.4% to 7.3%, depending on the extent of the cuts released [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report notes that the VLCC fleet is aging, with more vessels expected to be retired than new deliveries from 2024 to 2028, tightening supply and enhancing upward pressure on shipping rates [4]. - The VLCC fleet is projected to decrease from 908 vessels in 2024 to 807 vessels by 2028, which will likely lead to increased operational efficiency challenges due to aging vessels [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends core shipping stocks such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation, suggesting they are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated increase in oil shipping demand [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in the technology sector, particularly in Hong Kong, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 6.4% during the week [8]. - A significant event was the signing of a 20-year power purchase agreement between Microsoft and CEG, which will restart a nuclear power plant, adding approximately 835 MW of carbon-free energy to the grid and creating 3,400 jobs [17]. - The cryptocurrency market saw a total market capitalization increase to $2.20 trillion, with a total trading volume of $67.9 billion for the week, reflecting a 191.97% year-to-date increase in total trading volume [20][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas AI - The technology sector in Hong Kong experienced a rebound, with the Hang Seng Technology Index closing at 3703.8, up 6.4% [8]. - Microsoft hosted the Microsoft 365 Copilot Wave 2 launch event, introducing new collaborative tools aimed at enhancing productivity [15]. 2. Web3 and Cryptocurrency Market - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies reached $2.20 trillion, up from $2.10 trillion the previous week, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [20]. - The report noted that the cryptocurrency market is currently in a neutral sentiment zone, with a fear and greed index of 49.76 [20]. - The report identified top-performing companies in the cryptocurrency sector, including SOS, Bit Digital, Core Scientific, TeraWulf, and 博雅互动, while also noting significant declines in others like BitFuFu and Cipher Mining [24]. 3. Key Events - The report mentions the significant power purchase agreement between Microsoft and CEG, which is expected to have long-term implications for the energy sector and job creation [17]. - It also highlights the performance of various stocks within the technology and cryptocurrency sectors, with notable gains in companies like CONSTELLATION ENERGY and VERTIV [11][13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (Maintain) for non-ferrous metals [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a weak overall trend in energy metal prices, particularly lithium, cobalt, and nickel, with expectations of continued price fluctuations [2][10] - There is a sustained positive outlook for soft magnetic materials due to their benefits from the electronic and power sectors, driven by trends in renewable energy and AI computing [2][10] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report mentions the opening of Europe's first lithium hydroxide refining plant by AMG Lithium, which aims to produce 20,000 tons annually [9] - International Lithium Corp. has reduced its stake in the Avalonia lithium project, increasing Ganfeng Lithium's share to 79% [9] 2. Energy Metals - Lithium prices: - Lithium carbonate decreased by 0.13% to 74,200 CNY/ton - Lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.86% to 69,275 CNY/ton - Lithium spodumene price fell by 0.40% to 747 USD/ton [13][16] - Cobalt prices: - Overseas MB cobalt price fell to 10.90 USD/pound - Domestic cobalt price decreased to 169,000 CNY/ton [23] - Nickel and manganese prices remained stable, with sulfuric manganese at 0.61 CNY/ton and sulfuric nickel at 2.81 CNY/ton [30] - Rare earth permanent magnets showed price increases, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide rising by 2.42% to 422,500 CNY/ton [33] 3. New Materials - In the power new materials sector, prices for lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate remained stable at 10,400 CNY/ton and 32,600 CNY/ton respectively [40] - In the photovoltaic new materials sector, the average price of soldering strips remained at 4.25 CNY/kg, while the average price of 421 metal silicon powder was 13,150 CNY/ton [46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the public utility sector, particularly focusing on green electricity and low-covariance assets [4][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing value of green electricity as policies shift towards carbon neutrality, with a focus on the development of a dual control system for energy consumption and carbon emissions [6][10]. - August 2024 saw a record high in electricity consumption among urban and rural residents, driven by high temperatures and increased demand [14][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Carbon Neutrality Policy Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) outlined key areas for carbon neutrality, including the establishment of a new mechanism for energy consumption and carbon emissions control, and the promotion of advanced green technologies [10][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of green electricity in achieving carbon neutrality, with various industries being encouraged to increase their use of renewable energy [12][13]. 2. August Electricity Consumption Data - In August 2024, total electricity consumption reached 964.9 billion kWh, marking an 8.9% year-on-year increase [14][15]. - Urban and rural residential electricity consumption surged by 23.7% year-on-year, attributed to high temperatures [15][16]. 3. Recommended Investment Combinations - The report recommends a diversified portfolio including companies like Yangtze Power, Huaneng Hydropower, and China Nuclear Power, which are expected to perform well in the current market [5][21]. - The recommended portfolio has outperformed the broader market indices significantly since the beginning of 2024, with a 21.64% increase compared to a decline in major indices [22][21]. 4. Key Company Valuations - The report provides a detailed valuation table for key companies in the public utility sector, indicating a generally positive outlook with several companies rated as "Buy" or "Increase" [25].

证券研究报告 医药生物 行业定期报告 证券分析师 刘闯 S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 林海霖 S1350524050002 linhailin@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： -20% -10% 0% -40% -20% 0% 20% 2023-09-20 2023-12-20 2024-03-20 2024-06-20 2024-09-20 医药生物(申万) 沪深300 相关研究 2024 年 09 月 22 日 医疗设备板块见底了吗？ 看好（维持） ——医药行业周报（24/9/18-24/9/20） 投资要点： ➢ 本周医药市场表现分析：本周沪深 300 指数上涨 1.32%，医药生物（申万）指数下跌 0.79%。个股 表现方面，受新一轮国家医保谈判工作启动影响，化药板块有所波动，科伦药业、荣昌生物等标的 跌幅明显；受手套等出口美国关税上调影响，英科医疗等低耗标的亦有调整。整体来看，近期医药 行情表现疲软，政策扰动有所放大，短期建议关注：1）创新药/械：政策预期相对稳定，创新药迈 入高质量发展阶段、国际竞争力提升，盈利能力拐点信号积极，持 ...

证券研究报告 板块表现： 交通运输 行业定期报告 投资要点： 证券分析师 孙延 S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 联系人 张付哲 S1350124070010 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 相关研究 2024 年 09 月 22 日 油运旺季蓄势待发，快递价格易涨难跌 看好（维持） ——2024 年 9 月 16 日-9 月 22 日交通运输行业周报 一、行业动态跟踪 ➢ 航运船舶： 1）美联储开启降息通道刺激需求，VLCC大西洋市场回升或将带动整体市场上涨，油运旺 季蓄势待发：上周，美联储将利率下调 50 个基点，降息通常会促进经济活动和能源需求 ，美国上周初请失业金人数降至四个月来的最低水平，续领失业金人数下降至 6 月初的水 平，美国第三季度经济继续扩张。美国能源信息署(EIA)公布数据显示，截至 9 月 13 日当 周，美国除却战略储备的商业原油库存减少 163.0 万桶至 4.18 亿桶，降幅 0.39%，为一 年来低位。随着旺季临近， ...

Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [2][5] Core Views - The company is a global leader in oil and gas shipping, with the largest oil tanker fleet globally [2][5] - The crude oil shipping cycle is on an upward trend, and the refined oil shipping market remains highly prosperous [2][3] - The company's performance is highly correlated with the oil shipping cycle, with international oil shipping being the main source of earnings elasticity [2][13] - The demand for crude oil shipping is expected to increase due to longer shipping distances and limited supply, particularly for VLCCs [2][21][27] - The refined oil shipping market is expected to remain strong due to increased demand from east-to-west oil movements and limited supply growth [34][37] Business Overview - The company focuses on oil and gas transportation, including international and domestic crude oil, refined oil, and LNG shipping [2][13] - The company's historical performance was influenced by both dry bulk and oil shipping cycles, but since 2016, it has focused solely on oil and gas transportation [13][14] - The company's VLCC fleet is the core driver of its earnings elasticity, with each $10,000/day change in TCE contributing approximately RMB 950 million in marginal profit [18][19] Market Outlook Crude Oil Shipping - Demand for crude oil shipping is expected to grow due to increased global crude oil production and longer shipping distances, particularly from the Americas to the Far East [21][27] - Supply is constrained by limited shipyard capacity, with VLCC deliveries expected to be very limited from 2024-2026 [21][22] - The VLCC fleet is aging, with the number of ships expected to decline from 908 in 2024 to 807 in 2028 due to retirements exceeding new deliveries [30][31] - OPEC+ production cuts and non-OPEC production increases are expected to support VLCC demand, particularly in the Q4 2024 peak season [30][31] Refined Oil Shipping - Demand for refined oil shipping is expected to remain strong due to the east-to-west movement of refined oil and increased refining capacity in Asia [34][37] - Supply growth is limited by an aging fleet and environmental regulations, with only 45.15% of the current order book expected to be delivered by 2025 [37][41] - The aging fleet and environmental regulations are expected to further constrain supply, particularly for older ships [41] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 26.37 billion in 2024 to RMB 29.66 billion in 2026, with net profit increasing from RMB 5.81 billion to RMB 7.48 billion over the same period [5][43] - The oil transportation business is expected to contribute the majority of revenue and profit, with revenue growing from RMB 24.44 billion in 2024 to RMB 27.48 billion in 2026 [6][43] - LNG transportation revenue is expected to grow modestly, from RMB 1.84 billion in 2024 to RMB 2.11 billion in 2026 [6][43] Valuation - The company's current PE ratios are 10.84x for 2024, 8.92x for 2025, and 8.04x for 2026, based on projected earnings [5][43] - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 15.45% in 2024 to 16.74% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability [4][43]

证券研究报告 金属与材料|有色金属 行业定期报告 证券分析师 田源 S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 联系人 陈轩 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 相关研究 2024 年 09 月 22 日 美联储开启降息周期，黄金和工业金属价格上涨 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（24/9/16-24/9/20） 投资要点： ➢ 贵金属板块：美联储 9 月降息 50BP 开启降息周期，金价持续创历史新高。伦敦现货黄金上涨 1.19%、上 期所黄金上涨 1.21%、沪金持仓量上涨 6.56%，伦敦现货白银上涨 4.51%、上期所白银上涨 1.67%、沪 银持仓量下跌 2.43%，钯金上涨 0.57%，铂金下跌 0.80%。在美联储 9 月议息会议前一周，市场开始逐 步定价降息 50BP，周四的 FOMC 会议如期兑现降息 50BP。根据 Fe ...