证券研究报告 金属与材料|有色金属 行业定期报告 证券分析师 田源 S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 联系人 相关研究 2024 年 8 月 11 日 碳酸锂持续新低，关注软磁和铜合金材料的主题机会 看好（维持） ——有色金属 能源金属＆新材料周报（24/8/5-24/8/11） 投资要点： 能源金属方面，价格整体呈弱势运行趋势。锂：本周，碳酸锂价格下跌 0.68%至 80250 元/吨，氢氧化锂 价格下跌 0.64%至 77100 元/吨，近期市场偏弱运行。供给端，碳酸锂产量稳步攀升，6 月碳酸锂产量 64868 吨，环比上升 4%；需求端，补库行情结束，部分下游库存足够满足生产需求，长协客供稳定下现 货成交相对清淡。过剩格局下预计后续价格偏弱运行。建议关注：天齐锂业、赣锋锂业、中矿资源、永兴 材料。 钴：海外 MB 钴价下跌为 11.58 美元/磅，国内电钴价格下跌为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that gold prices have stabilized following a significant drop due to temporary liquidity shocks caused by yen arbitrage trading unwinding. The expectation of a U.S. recession is gradually being disproven, leading to a recovery in gold prices. The report suggests that gold has medium to long-term upside potential due to loose monetary and fiscal policies in the U.S., a contraction in dollar credit, and increasing geopolitical tensions [2]. - In the copper sector, prices are under pressure due to rising inventories and lower demand expectations. The report notes that copper smelting margins have worsened, indicating a challenging environment for producers. However, the long-term outlook remains positive due to supply constraints [3]. - The aluminum sector is facing weak downstream demand, leading to price pressures. The report indicates that while short-term conditions are challenging, there may be improvements in the supply-demand balance towards the end of the year [3]. - The small metals segment shows mixed performance, with certain metals like germanium and magnesium experiencing price increases, while others like molybdenum and vanadium pentoxide have seen declines [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Recent macroeconomic data from the U.S. shows initial jobless claims lower than expected, indicating a potentially stronger labor market. Additionally, the U.S. wholesale sales data was below expectations, suggesting economic challenges [9]. - The report notes significant market volatility due to yen arbitrage trading unwinding, which has affected global asset prices [9]. 2. Precious Metals - Gold prices fell by 1.72% in London and 2.32% on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, while silver prices dropped by 4.75% and 5.59%, respectively. Palladium rose by 1.99%, and platinum fell by 4.84% [18][19]. 3. Industrial Metals - Copper prices decreased by 2.07% in London and 2.75% in Shanghai, with inventories rising by 20.24% in London. The report indicates that copper smelting margins are negative, reflecting a challenging operational environment [24]. - Aluminum prices showed a mixed trend, with London prices increasing by 2.02% while Shanghai prices fell by 0.68%. The report highlights a rise in aluminum processing margins [30]. - Lead prices fell by 0.54% in London and 3.39% in Shanghai, with lead inventories showing a mixed trend. Zinc prices increased by 1.86% in London but decreased by 2.03% in Shanghai [36]. 4. Valuation Changes - The report states that the current PE_TTM for the non-ferrous metals sector is 18.98, with a slight decrease from the previous week. The PB_LF stands at 1.87, also reflecting a minor decline [16][17].

证券研究报告 医药生物 行业定期报告 证券分析师 刘闯 S1350524030002 liuchuang@huayuanstock.com 林海霖 S1350524050002 linhailin@huayuanstock.com 2024 年 08 月 11 日 GLP-1 显著放大注射笔需求，重点推荐美好医疗 看好（维持） ——医药行业周报（24/8/5-24/8/9） 投资要点： 本周医药市场表现分析：本周沪深 300 有所调整（-1.6%），医药板块表现较好(-0.41%)，标的涨 幅方面，香雪制药、东北制药、奥精医疗等表现亮眼，并购、业务拓展等事件催化走势较强，中药、 流通类等具有业绩催化、安全边际较高的资产表现相对较好。建议关注：1）中报业绩：中报陆续 披露，建议关注中报表现超预期个股；2）超跌反弹：医药指数呈现底部企稳迹象，超跌资产和个 股有望迎来阶段反弹；3）创新药械：产业趋势较为确定，我们持续看好，优质创新药个股有望取 得相对收益。4）主题性个股：近期医药成交量放大，活跃度提升，主题性个股表现较好。 医药指数和各细分领域表现、涨跌幅：本周医药指数下跌 0.41%，上涨个股数量 224 家，下 ...

证券研究报告 公用事业|电力 证券分析师 查浩 S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邓思平 S1350524070003 dengsiping@huayuanstock.com 研究支持 联系人 市场表现： 相关研究 2024 年 08 月 08 日 华能国际 (600011.SH) 增持（维持） ——Q2 火风电量欠佳拖累业绩 火绿龙头有望率先受益电改 投资要点： ➢ 事件：公司披露 2024 年半年报，上半年实现营收 1188 亿元，同比下滑 5.73%；归母净利润 74.54 亿元，同比增长 18.16%；扣非后归母净利润 71.8 亿元，同比增长 28.87%。单二季度 实现营收 534 亿元，同比下滑 12.05%；归母净利润 28.58 亿元，同比下滑 29.58%；扣非后 归母净利润 28.02 亿元，同比下滑 21.35%。二季度业绩低于市场预期。 ➢ 上半年煤价下滑业绩正增长，二季度风况欠佳拖累整体业绩。根据公告，公司上半年实现利润 总额约 112 亿元， ...

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 行业,点评 2024 年 08 月 08 日 着好（維持） 各地 $1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock. com 刘晓宁 $1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 多領 好 $1350524070004 zoupe i xuan0 l @huayuanstock. com 原县人 以促进新能源消纳为核心 全面构建新型电力系统 宁宁快构建新型电力系统行动方案（2024―2027 年）点评 技术失点： > 事件：2024 年 8 月 6 日，三部委联合发布《加快构建新型电力系统行动方案（2024—2027 年）》。本方案核心聚焦解决新能源消纳问题，提出了新型电力系统未来重点发展方向。 > 电网侧：提高新能源外送能力、提高配电网接纳新能源能力。输电网方面：核心在于提高外送 新能源比例, 我们分析核心技术在于柔性直流在特高压中的大规模应用, 可以有效提高新能源 占比甚至实现纯新能源外送。此外在特高压通道建设的同时, 加强两端常规电网。配电网方面： 配网是我国目前新能源消纳重要瓶颈之一, 行动方案要求各地建立 ...

证券研究报告 板块表现： 相关研究 公用事业|电力 行业点评 证券分析师 查浩 S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邹佩轩 S1350524070004 zoupeixuan0l@huayuanstock.com 联系人 -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 电力 沪深300 2024 年 08 月 08 日 以促进新能源消纳为核心 全面构建新型电力系统 看好（维持） ——加快构建新型电力系统行动方案（2024—2027 年）点评 投资要点： ➢ 事件：2024 年 8 月 6 日，三部委联合发布《加快构建新型电力系统行动方案（2024—2027 年）》。本方案核心聚焦解决新能源消纳问题，提出了新型电力系统未来重点发展方向。 ➢ 电网侧：提高新能源外送能力、提高配电网接纳新能源能力。输电网方面：核心在于提高外送 新能源比例，我们分析核心技术在于柔性直流在特高压中的大规模应用，可以有效提高新能源 占比甚至实现纯新能源外送。此外在特高压通道 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the gold sector, indicating a favorable investment opportunity in the context of anticipated interest rate cuts and the resonance of new and old paradigms [3][4]. Core Insights - Gold possesses four attributes: financial, monetary, hedging, and commodity, with the real interest rate of the US dollar being a key long-term indicator for gold pricing [3][4][9]. - Recent trends show a weakening US economy, leading to elevated expectations for interest rate cuts, which have contributed to gold prices reaching historical highs [3][4][14]. - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, with global net buying rising from 254.9 tons in 2020 to 1037.4 tons in 2023, indicating a shift in demand dynamics [4][11][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Gold Pricing Framework - Gold's financial attribute is linked to real interest rates, showing a negative correlation with the 10-year US Treasury yield and TIPS rates [9][10]. - The monetary attribute reflects gold's role as an alternative to the US dollar, with a weaker correlation to the dollar index compared to real interest rates [9][10]. - The hedging attribute highlights gold's appeal during risk events, where it serves as a store of value [10]. - The commodity attribute is less significant but is influenced by global supply and demand dynamics, particularly the increasing role of central bank purchases [11][12]. 2. Short-term Outlook - Economic indicators in the US, including inflation and employment data, have shown a downward trend, supporting the case for potential interest rate cuts [14][17]. - The CPI in June 2024 was reported at 3.0%, reflecting a consistent decline in inflation since 2022 [15][16]. - The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.8% in July 2024, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [17] . 3. Long-term Outlook - The new paradigm framework suggests that strong central bank gold purchases, increasing US money supply, and geopolitical tensions will likely elevate gold's long-term price center [19][21]. - The structure of gold investors is shifting, with central banks becoming a significant demand force, particularly in Asia [19][20]. - The US M2 money supply continues to grow, contributing to a rising price center for gold priced in dollars [21][22]. 4. Comparison of 2024 vs. 2019 - The report analyzes the differences in gold's performance during the interest rate cut expectations of 2018-2022 and the current period, noting that gold has experienced a unique bull-bear cycle influenced by various economic factors [26][27]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from the rising gold prices, including Shandong Gold, Yintai Gold, Chifeng Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Hunan Gold, all of which are expected to see performance improvements [28][34][50][52].

证券研究报告 海外科技 行业定期报告 证券分析师 郑嘉伟 S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 于炳麟 S1350524060002 yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 联系人 郑冰倩 S1350124050014 zhengbingqian@huayuanstock.com 相关研究 2024 年 08 月 06 日 财报叠加宏观因素，海外科技股波动加剧 ——海外科技周报（24/07/29-24/08/02） 投资要点： ➢ 海外 AI：本周海外科技股业绩陆续发布，云厂商资本开支指引及云业务表现产生分化。本周微软、meta、 亚马逊相继发布财报，重点关注资本开支后续指引，微软本季度云业务收入略低于市场预期，公司对于 FY25 年指引较上一季度无明显变化，预计将继续增长，但是对于下一季度资本开支指引的表述较前两季 度相对保守；meta 业绩超预期，公司上调全年资本指引，全年资本支出下限由 350 亿美元提升至 370 美元，2025 年资本支出预计大幅增长，较上一季度的表述更加积极；亚马逊云业务 AWS 符合市场预期， 总体业绩受广告及零售业 ...

证券研究报告 交通运输 证券分析师 孙延 S1350524050003 王惠武 S1350524060001 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 联系人 张付哲 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： 相关研究 | --- | --- | |---------------------|----------------------| | | | | | | | 股价数据： 2024 | 年 8 月 2 日 | | | | | 收盘价（元） | 49.17 | | 年内最高/最低（元） | 36.22/92.24 | | 总市值（亿元） | 80.76 | 2024 年 08 月 05 日 密尔克卫 (603713.SH) 买入（首次覆盖） ——业绩持续修复，静待化工景气反转 投资要点： ➢ 事件：2024 年 8 月 1 日，公司公布 2024 年半年度报告，2024 年 H1 公司实现营收 59.9 亿 元，同比增长 32.4%，其中 Q2 实现营收 31.0 亿元，同比增长 42.2%；实现归母净利润 3.1 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future performance [4][52]. Core Insights - Anta Sports has established itself as a leading brand in the domestic sportswear market through a clear strategic direction and effective decision-making, supported by a multi-brand strategy and overseas expansion plans [3][4]. - The demand for sportswear is expected to grow due to economic growth and changing consumer attitudes towards health and fitness, with the domestic sportswear market projected to grow at a low double-digit annual rate [3][8]. - The company's multi-brand operation and global expansion are key factors in enhancing its competitive edge, with the main brand, FILA, and other brands targeting different market segments [3][4][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Strategic Clarity and Decision-Making - Anta Sports has developed a robust multi-brand strategy, acquiring several leading brands to strengthen its market position [3][14]. - The management team is experienced and well-structured, contributing to effective operational execution [15][19]. 2. Industry Demand Drivers - Economic growth and increased health awareness among consumers are driving demand for sportswear, with government policies supporting the industry [8][30]. - The domestic sportswear market is still in a growth phase, with per capita spending expected to rise significantly [30][31]. 3. Company Performance and Brand Strategy - Anta's main brand and FILA have shown strong revenue growth, with CAGR of 14.80% and 14.18% respectively from 2019 to 2023 [21][24]. - The outdoor brands DESCENTE and KOLON SPORT are also experiencing rapid growth, with a CAGR of 42.01% during the same period [21][24]. 4. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The report forecasts Anta's revenue to reach 709.75 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13.82% [51][52]. - The expected net profit for 2024 is 129.41 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 26.42% compared to the previous year [51][52]. 5. Comparative Valuation - Anta's 2024 PE ratio is projected to be 15.3X, compared to a weighted average PE of 18.4X for comparable companies, indicating potential for growth [4][52].