Investment Highlights - The agricultural sector is recognized as a fundamental industry with significant resilience, characterized by domestic supply shortages, historical price declines, and low asset prices, leading to increased investment value in the sector [10][12] - The current phase of agricultural stock price increases is believed to be in the early stage of the second phase, transitioning from emotional stimulation to industrial logic development [10] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining grain security and farmer income resilience, with a target grain production of 1.4 trillion jin for 2025 [10] Agriculture Sector - The pig price is expected to remain stable in the short term, with recent data showing a price of 14.78 yuan/kg and a slight increase in breeding stock [11][12] - The chicken market is experiencing a rebound, with prices for live chickens and chicks showing signs of recovery, indicating a shift in the industry towards upstream breeding sources [13] - The feed sector is recommended to focus on companies like Hai Da Group, which is expected to benefit from improved cash flow and overseas growth [14][15] Energy Sector - Wind and solar power installations have surpassed thermal power for the first time, with a total installed capacity of 1.482 billion kW for wind and solar combined [24][25] - The report emphasizes the acceleration of offshore wind projects and the potential for domestic cable manufacturers to benefit from European market demand [27][29] - The introduction of new policies is expected to enhance the market entry of renewable energy sources, with significant growth anticipated in the offshore wind sector [26][30] Pharmaceutical Sector - The demand for new drugs for depression and epilepsy is highlighted, with a focus on companies like Warner Pharmaceuticals and Hainan Haiyao, which are developing innovative treatments [32][35] - The report notes the significant unmet need in the epilepsy market, with an estimated market size exceeding 50 billion yuan in China [35] - Warner Pharmaceuticals' ZG001, a derivative of ketamine, is in clinical trials and has the potential to revolutionize depression treatment [36] Consumer Sector - The pet food market is experiencing steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% from 2020 to 2024, particularly in the cat food segment [4][21] - The report indicates that exports of pet food have increased significantly, with a total export volume of 30,000 tons in March, reflecting a 24.6% year-on-year growth [17][20] - Companies like Lu Si Co. are identified as key players in the pet food industry, focusing on quality control and product development [4][21] Construction Materials Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and cyclical investment opportunities in the construction materials sector, particularly in light of recent political meetings that prioritize internal circulation [5][6] - Companies like San Ke Shu are noted for their competitive advantages in the paint sector, with expectations for improved performance as the market stabilizes [8][9] Transportation Sector - The logistics company Debang is experiencing short-term pressure on earnings but is expected to improve profitability through operational enhancements [8][9] - The report highlights the company's revenue growth driven by strategic adjustments and network integration [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's brand operation business shows steady growth, with increased sales expenses impacting profitability [4][5] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%, while the adjusted revenue was 8.57 billion yuan [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 690 million yuan, down 2.9% year-on-year [5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.84 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 90 million yuan, down 54.4% year-on-year [5] Business Segmentation Summary - **Brand Operation**: Revenue reached 5.56 billion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year; adjusted revenue was 6.04 billion yuan [8] - Key products include: - Diquan: 2.1 billion yuan, up 10.7% - Hailu: 740 million yuan, up 14.9% - Baiyang Pharmaceutical: 950 million yuan, with core product revenue of 630 million yuan, up 16.6% [8] - **Wholesale Distribution**: Revenue decreased to 2.14 billion yuan, down 23% year-on-year as the company focuses on core brand operations [8] - **Retail Business**: Revenue remained stable at 370 million yuan, up 3.7% year-on-year [8] Financial Performance and Forecast - The gross margin for 2024 was 35.5%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, with brand operation gross margin at 48% [8] - Sales expenses increased, with sales expense ratios rising by 2.8 percentage points in 2024 and 4.3 percentage points in Q1 2025 [8] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are as follows: - Net profit: 760 million yuan (2025), 901 million yuan (2026), 1.07 billion yuan (2027) - Growth rates: 10.0% (2025), 18.4% (2026), 19.2% (2027) [8] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 13X (2025), 11X (2026), and 9X (2027) [8] Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading pharmaceutical commercialization platform in China, demonstrating strong brand-building and multi-channel operational capabilities [8] - The company has successfully developed multiple products with revenues exceeding 100 million yuan and is accelerating its layout in innovative drugs and devices [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable profit growth as lithium salt production increases and costs decrease, with strong pricing power in cesium and rubidium products. The copper and germanium projects are anticipated to open new profit growth avenues. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 0.89 billion, 1.19 billion, and 1.50 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.23, 1.64, and 2.07 yuan per share, leading to PE ratios of 23, 18, and 14 times [5] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 5.36 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 10.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.76 billion yuan, down 65.7% year-on-year. The Q4 2024 revenue was 1.80 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 78.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 56.4% [7] - For 2025 Q1, the company achieved a revenue of 1.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.4%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14.4% [7] - The lithium salt sales volume for 2024 was 43,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 145%, with a significant cost reduction of 42% per ton [7] - The cesium and rubidium segment generated revenue of 1.40 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 24%, with a gross profit of 1.09 billion yuan, reflecting a gross margin of 78% [7] - The copper project in Zambia is progressing, with mining operations already underway and expected to be operational by the end of 2026 [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The competitive advantages in the paint industry are gradually becoming evident, and the company is expected to emerge as a leader in the existing housing market [8] - The company has shown significant improvement in net profit due to effective cost control and a reduction in impairment provisions [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from domestic demand policies and has a unique valuation potential within the building materials sector [8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of 12,105 million RMB, a decrease of 2.97% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 332 million RMB, an increase of 91.27% [8] - The company’s revenue for Q1 2025 was 21.30 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.12%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.05 billion RMB, up 123.33% [8] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 29.6%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to intense market competition [8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 802 million RMB, 1,001 million RMB, and 1,302 million RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.52, 1.90, and 2.47 RMB [8] - The company is expected to experience a significant increase in net profit growth rates of 141.60% in 2025 and 30.07% in 2027 [8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leading national paint enterprise, leveraging its unique competitive advantages and efficient channel strategy to navigate market volatility [8] - The company is anticipated to be among the first in the industry to experience a recovery in performance, benefiting from the cyclical nature of the market [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance has slightly declined, but collaboration with IDC is expected to lead to a revaluation of its value [5] - The company reported a revenue of 905 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 197 million yuan, down 3.4% year-on-year [7] - The decline in performance is attributed to increased maintenance time, which affected waste processing volume and increased maintenance costs [7] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing excavation of aged waste, which could bring significant profit increments [7] - The collaboration between waste incineration and IDC is anticipated to become an industry trend, with the company positioned to benefit from this shift [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 3,536 million yuan in 2023, 3,765 million yuan in 2024, 4,126 million yuan in 2025, 4,378 million yuan in 2026, and 4,540 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 7.38%, 6.45%, 9.58%, 6.12%, and 3.70% respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 735 million yuan in 2023, 821 million yuan in 2024, 917 million yuan in 2025, 1,022 million yuan in 2026, and 1,130 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 2.71%, 11.67%, 11.74%, 11.43%, and 10.64% respectively [6] - The company is expected to achieve a free cash flow of 740 million yuan in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 65.8%, leading to projected dividend yields of 4.2%, 4.7%, and 5.2% for 2025-2027 [7]

Economic Overview - In 2023, China's low-altitude economy market size reached CNY 505.95 billion, with a growth rate of 33.8%[16] - The market size is expected to reach CNY 1.5 trillion by 2025 and CNY 3.5 trillion by 2035[16] Industry Development - The low-altitude economy's commercialization path is divided into three phases: strategic preparation (2025-2027), market expansion (2027-2030), and ecological maturity (2030-2035)[12][13] - China has nearly 700 drone manufacturers, leading globally in both consumer and industrial drone markets, holding over 70% and 50% market shares respectively[8] Stock Market Performance - The median price change for technology growth stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange was -3.48% from April 21 to April 25, 2025, with 14% of companies showing an increase[21] - Notable stock performers included Can Energy (+24.82%), Wanda Bearings (+21.38%), and Yi Neng Power (+8.23%)[21] Valuation Metrics - The median TTM P/E ratio for the information technology sector decreased from 38.5X to 38.0X, while the electronic equipment sector's P/E ratio fell from 56.6X to 51.1X[26][39] - The total market value of the electronic equipment sector decreased from CNY 134.06 billion to CNY 129.44 billion[28] Company Highlights - Weimiao Electronics has secured a project for the Xiaopeng Huaitian flying car control console wiring harness[17] - Parallel Technology serves as a cloud client for Xiaopeng Huaitian, a key player in the low-altitude economy[17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is facing increasing pressure in the short term, but there are expectations for domestic demand policies to take effect [5] - The company reported a revenue of 895 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.20%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 114 million yuan, down 25.95% year-on-year [7] - The company is positioned as a leading retailer in the plastic pipe sector, benefiting from domestic demand policies and high dividend yields, which enhance its defensive attributes [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue forecast for 2023 is 6,378 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 8.27%, and is expected to recover to 6,612 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 5.51% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1,000 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 4.92% [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.63 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.53 [6] Market Performance - The company’s gross margin for Q1 2025 was 40.45%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to weak market demand and intensified competition [7] - Financial expenses increased significantly, with a growth of 84.16% year-on-year, mainly due to a decline in interest income [7] - Cash flow from operating activities improved significantly, with a net cash flow increase of 260 million yuan year-on-year, attributed to reduced raw material purchases [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from infrastructure investments and an increase in market share in the retail sector, providing a performance safety net [7] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 1,000 million, 1,102 million, and 1,219 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.63, 0.69, and 0.77 yuan [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 20, 18, and 16 for 2025-2027, indicating potential for value accumulation [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but profitability is expected to recover with operational improvements [4] - The company reported a revenue of 40.363 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 861 million yuan, up 15.41% year-on-year [5] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 10.407 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.96%, but reported a net loss of 68 million yuan, a decline of 173.69% year-on-year [5] - The company has initiated a buyback plan, intending to repurchase shares at a price not exceeding 16 yuan per share, with a total buyback amount between 75 million to 150 million yuan [5] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.067 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.36%, with the express delivery and other businesses contributing 10.946 billion yuan and 537 million yuan respectively [5] - The revenue growth is attributed to strategic adjustments, improved delivery quality, and steady progress in network integration [5] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 4.0%, down 2.43 percentage points year-on-year, with a net loss of 68 million yuan [5] - The company aims to enhance gross margin through internal integration and upgrading of end-point networks [5] Cost and Expense Management - The company’s expense ratio decreased to 5.0% in 2024, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios showing varied changes [5] - In Q1 2025, the expense ratio further declined to 4.7%, with sales expenses slightly increasing due to resource allocation towards business marketing [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 953 million yuan, 1.230 billion yuan, and 1.510 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 14.3 for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [6] - The high-end express delivery market is expected to see continued growth, with ongoing integration with JD Network and new business expansions anticipated to enhance volume and efficiency [6]

证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 28 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com ——北交所消费服务产业跟踪第十二期（20250427） 投资要点： 风险提示：宏观经济环境变动风险、市场竞争风险、资料统计误差风险。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 城镇宠物消费规模稳步增长，路斯股份是北交所宠物食品产业核心标的。中国宠物 行业构建了一条完整的产业链，涵盖多个环节与领域。从消费结构视角审视 2024 年 的宠物市场，宠物食品市场依旧占据主导地位，以 52.8%的市场份额稳居榜首。在 这一板块中，主粮和营养品的市场占比实现了小幅上扬，而零食的份额则稍有下降。 紧随其后的是宠物医疗市场，占据 28.0%的市场份额。其中，疫苗和体检业务表现 稳定，而药品和诊疗服务的市场份额则出现了小幅下滑。宠物用品市场和宠物服务 市场虽然目前的市场份额相对较低，分别为 12.4%和 6. ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the resilience of agriculture, recommending undervalued leading companies in the sector. It highlights the importance of enhancing agricultural production and stabilizing prices for key agricultural products, with a target grain production of 1.4 trillion jin for 2025 [2][4] - The report suggests that the agricultural sector, being fundamental to the nation, presents significant allocation value due to its current low valuations and the need to protect farmers' incomes. The anticipated rise in agricultural stocks is expected to occur in three phases: emotional stimulation, industrial logic development, and cyclical upturn driving EPS and PE [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Livestock - The latest pig price is 14.78 yuan/kg, with a weight of 128.94 kg for market pigs. The price of 15 kg piglets has dropped to 649 yuan/head, indicating a short-term strong performance but a long-term oversupply situation [5][18] - The total number of breeding sows is 40.39 million, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2%. The total pig inventory is 41.731 million, up 2.2% year-on-year [18][19] - Investment should shift from "cyclical thinking" to "quality and price," focusing on leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [19] 2. Poultry - The price of broiler chickens has rebounded, with chick prices stable at 3.1 yuan/chick. The price of broiler chickens is 7.5 yuan/kg, showing a year-on-year decrease of 4.58% [20] - The report highlights the concentration of industry profits towards upstream breeding sources, suggesting a focus on companies like Yisheng Livestock and Shennong Development [20] 3. Feed - Fish prices have risen while feed prices have decreased, indicating an improvement in aquaculture profitability. The report anticipates a recovery in demand for aquaculture feed in 2025 [21][22] - The leading companies are expected to improve their market share and cash flow as they enter a new phase of stable cash flow [21][22] 4. Pet Industry - Exports of pet food have increased significantly, with a total of 30,000 tons exported in March, a year-on-year increase of 24.6%. The revenue from exports reached 9.1 billion yuan [23][24] - The report notes a strong performance in canned pet food, with export volume increasing by 52.6% and revenue by 98% [24] 5. Agricultural Products - The report indicates that domestic agricultural products are less affected by tariffs, with a high self-sufficiency rate in grains. It predicts a potential upward trend in agricultural prices due to reduced imports [30] - The USDA's April report maintains previous forecasts for soybean and corn production, indicating a stable supply-demand balance [30] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3787 points, with the Agricultural Index at 2608 points, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.16% [31] - The report highlights the need for policies to support low-income groups and enhance consumption, which could positively impact the agricultural sector [61]