Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [4] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the yellow feathered chicken breeding industry, with a market share that continues to rise. The revenue has shown steady growth over the years, with a 10-year CAGR of +15.84% from 2014 to 2024. However, the net profit has experienced significant fluctuations due to the cyclical nature of poultry prices [2][21] - The company has demonstrated significant cost advantages, which help mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations in its products. The complete cost of raising yellow feathered chickens has decreased significantly, providing a buffer against price declines [3][41] - The company has seen a substantial increase in its pig farming business, with plans to reach a pig output of 2 million heads in 2025. The complete cost of pig farming has also decreased, indicating a positive outlook for revenue and profit growth in this segment [7][54] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the second-largest yellow feathered chicken breeding enterprise in China, with a market share exceeding 15%. It has maintained a stable revenue growth trajectory, with total revenue increasing from 4.074 billion to 17.725 billion from 2014 to 2024 [2][21][24] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 8.353 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.02%, but the net profit fell by 74.10% to 149 million, primarily due to a decline in yellow feathered chicken prices [1][21] - The company’s revenue from yellow feathered chicken accounted for 81.98% of total revenue in 2024, while the contribution from pig farming has steadily increased from 3.77% in 2019 to 16.51% in 2024 [24] Cost Management - The complete cost of raising yellow feathered chickens has decreased significantly, with the cost dropping to below 11 yuan per kilogram in the first half of 2025. This reduction is attributed to lower feed prices and improved management practices [3][41] - The complete cost of pig farming has also seen a decline, reaching 12.3 yuan per kilogram by June 2025, with expectations to further decrease to 12 yuan by the end of the year [7][54] Market Outlook - The yellow feathered chicken prices have shown signs of recovery since late July 2025, which is expected to improve profits in the third quarter. The company anticipates that the market conditions will favor further growth in both chicken and pig farming segments [8][38] - The company projects revenues of 17.924 billion, 21.016 billion, and 23.589 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to reach 837 million, 1.829 billion, and 2.338 billion in the same years [8][59]

Group 1 - The report indicates a subtle shift in market sentiment, with large-cap stocks remaining stable while small-cap stocks begin to adjust. The bond market sees a significant decline in yields, with the 30-year government bond yield down by 3.15 basis points [1] - Domestic commodity markets have stabilized after consecutive declines, showing mixed performance with industrial silicon and caustic soda leading gains at 3.7% and 3.3% respectively, while coking coal, soda ash, and coke continue to weaken [1][2] - The report highlights a notable increase in the pig farming sector, rising by 3.00%, influenced by the anticipation of pork reserve policies. Additionally, oil and coal sectors also saw increases of 1.39% and 0.72% respectively, while photovoltaic equipment and lithium battery sectors experienced slight declines [1] Group 2 - The report notes that the recent price adjustments in coking coal and polysilicon reflect a short-term support, with coking coal prices expected to remain stable due to consistent raw material demand despite temporary production halts in Beijing and surrounding areas [2] - The market structure shows both bullish and bearish sentiments are cautious, with the futures market for polysilicon narrowing from an 8.1% premium to 1.0%, indicating a return to a more balanced pricing environment [2] - The report emphasizes that the commodity market is entering a phase of relative equilibrium after rapid adjustments, with trading logic shifting from emotional responses to a focus on fundamental supply and demand dynamics [2] Group 3 - The central bank's continuous support has alleviated funding pressure, with a net injection of 124.3 billion yuan on the day of the report, contributing to a shift from a tight to a loose funding environment [3] - The report anticipates that the central bank will continue to support liquidity, especially with the upcoming issuance of 10-year and 30-year government bonds, which are expected to see increased issuance compared to previous months [4] - Long-term interest rates have shown a significant downward trend, reflecting a shift in market sentiment as the stock market transitions from small-cap to large-cap stocks, reducing pressure on the bond market [3][4] Group 4 - The equity market is experiencing volatility, with the total trading volume reaching 2.46 trillion yuan, indicating a slight increase from the previous day. The market has shown a pattern of initial strength followed by adjustments, suggesting increased difficulty in market speculation [5] - There has been a significant outflow of funds from stock ETFs, with a net outflow of 6.8 billion yuan, indicating a strong tendency for institutions to realize profits, contrasting with previous buying trends [6] - The report highlights a continuation of the sector rotation, with dividend stocks gaining strength while high-tech sectors face collective declines, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [6][7] Group 5 - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index have both declined, while the AH share premium index has increased, indicating a divergence in investor sentiment towards different internet stocks [7] - The report notes that despite the overall market's shrinking volume, the continuation of the rebound in lower-tier sectors suggests potential for further capital inflows if the market does not break down significantly [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 12.661 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 10.36%, while net profit decreased by 11.06% to 1.671 billion, primarily due to pressure from old customers and the ramp-up of new factories [2] - The company announced a mid-term dividend plan, distributing 10 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend payout ratio of 70% and an annualized dividend yield of 3.7% [2] - The company is facing challenges from old customers affecting efficiency, while new factories are primarily focused on new brands with lower profit margins [7] Revenue and Profitability - In 25H1, the company's gross margin was 21.85%, a decrease of 6.38 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 13.20%, down 3.2 percentage points [4] - The company’s revenue for 25Q2 was 7.308 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.96%, but net profit fell by 16.70% to 909 million [2][4] - The company’s inventory decreased by 3.42% year-on-year to 2.902 billion, with inventory turnover days reduced to 55 days [5] Customer and Market Dynamics - New customer orders significantly increased, particularly from European clients, while orders from some old customers declined [3] - The company’s revenue from different regions showed a mixed performance, with U.S. revenue slightly declining by 0.43%, while European revenue surged by 88.94% [3] - The company is expected to face order pressure in the second half of the year, particularly during the back-to-school season in the U.S. [7] Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards from 264.8 billion, 291.1 billion, and 333.6 billion to 260.2 billion, 289.2 billion, and 324.7 billion respectively [8] - The net profit forecasts for the same period have also been revised down from 42.4 billion, 48.0 billion, and 56.1 billion to 35.1 billion, 42.8 billion, and 52.0 billion [8] - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is 3.01, 3.67, and 4.45 yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 18, 15, and 12 times [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue of 917 million and net profit of 152 million, representing year-on-year increases of 188.9% and 178.5% respectively [2] - The company's contract liabilities reached 587 million, a year-on-year increase of 28%, providing a solid foundation for future performance [2] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.118 HKD for the 2024 fiscal year, which accounts for approximately 54% of its annual profit, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.1% [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 45.1% and a net profit margin of 16.5%, with gross margin slightly increasing by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, while net profit margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points [4] - The adjusted net profit, excluding fair value changes and other income, was 184 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 240.7% [2] Business Segments - The company’s full-time review, quality education, and tutoring projects generated revenues of 101 million, 723 million, and 89 million respectively, with quality education experiencing a remarkable growth of 513.1% year-on-year [3] - The company has expanded its workforce to 3,592 employees, a 101% increase compared to the previous year, which supports future business development [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively implementing an "ALL IN AI" strategy to enhance operational efficiency through AI technology across various functions, including teaching and marketing [3] - The company has launched new courses tailored to local cultural characteristics in Shenzhen and Foshan, further driving its market expansion [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.985 billion, 2.501 billion, and 3.121 billion respectively, with net profit forecasts of 331 million, 423 million, and 532 million [5] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.39, 0.50, and 0.63 HKD, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13, 10, and 8 times [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 250.90% year-on-year, reaching 12.354 billion RMB in H1 2025, with a net profit of 2.268 billion RMB, up 285.76% year-on-year [2] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 73%, distributing approximately 1.66 billion RMB in dividends [2] - The brand's market influence and product innovation are key drivers for revenue and profit growth, with same-store sales increasing by approximately 200.8% [3][4] - The company has expanded its loyal customer base, with 480,000 members as of June 30, 2025, reflecting a 13,000 increase from December 31, 2024 [3] - The company has created over 2,100 original designs and holds 273 domestic and 246 international patents [3] Revenue Breakdown - In H1 2025, revenue from gold products was 14.174 billion RMB, with online and offline sales contributing 19.43 billion RMB and 122.41 billion RMB respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 313.3% and 243.2% [4] - Revenue from mainland China and overseas markets was 12.584 billion RMB and 1.6 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 232.8% and 455.2% [4] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin was 38.09%, a decrease of 3.24 percentage points due to a rise in gold prices exceeding 20% [5] - The net profit margin improved by 1.7 percentage points to 18.36% despite increased sales and administrative expenses [5] Future Growth Prospects - The company plans to continue expanding its channels and optimizing stores, with 41 self-operated stores opened in 16 cities by H1 2025 [6] - The opening of new stores in high-end shopping centers in Shanghai and Singapore marks a significant step in the company's international expansion [6] Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned well in the high-end gold jewelry market, integrating traditional Chinese culture with modern design [7] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 24.020 billion RMB, 33.813 billion RMB, and 41.402 billion RMB, respectively, with EPS estimates of 27.32 RMB, 38.51 RMB, and 47.20 RMB [7]

Market Performance - On August 20, the stock market showed a strong reversal after a low opening, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3766.21, up 1.04% [1] - The CSI 300 Index also increased by 1.14%, closing at 4271.40, indicating a robust upward trend in equities [1] - The domestic commodity market experienced a broad decline, particularly in lithium carbonate, which hit the limit down, and other weak fundamentals like soda ash and glass, which fell by 5.0% and 4.4% respectively [2][3] Sector Analysis - The petrochemical sector rose by 2.36%, while steel, photovoltaic equipment, coal, and lithium battery sectors saw gains around 1% [2] - The decline in lithium carbonate was primarily due to the announcement of resumption of production by Yichun Silver Lithium, which broke the market's bullish expectations regarding supply constraints [2] - Demand weakness was evident in soda ash and glass, with glass prices continuing to drop and inventory pressures affecting soda ash prices [3] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment has shifted towards a more cautious stance, with several indicators suggesting a turn in market emotions [3] - The futures market has shown a trend towards backwardation for popular commodities like lithium carbonate, coking coal, and glass, indicating increased bearish sentiment [3] - The current market is characterized by a logic of differentiation, with most industrial products returning to fundamentals driven by weak terminal demand [3] Bond Market Dynamics - On August 20, the bond market experienced a dramatic day, with the 10-year and 30-year government bonds seeing yields drop to 1.75% and 2.01% respectively before rebounding later in the day [4][6] - The bond market appears to be closely following the stock market, with traditional pricing factors like fundamentals and liquidity failing to dictate interest rate trends [5][6] - The current state of the bond market suggests a reliance on external positive stimuli for recovery, as internal recovery mechanisms seem weak [7] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a balanced investment strategy that allows for both offensive and defensive positioning, with a recommendation to consider a duration adjustment towards a neutral to slightly higher position around 3.0-3.5 years [7] - A barbell strategy is preferred, particularly with the 10-year and 30-year government bonds showing relative value [7] - It is advised to keep some cash reserves to capitalize on potential market reversals in the bond market [7] Equity Market Trends - The overall equity market saw a rebound with the Wande All A Index rising by 0.97%, although trading volume decreased by 192.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day [8] - The semiconductor sector experienced significant gains, becoming a focal point for bullish sentiment, while liquor stocks continued their upward trend [8][9] - Leverage funds showed no signs of retreat, indicating a continued willingness to invest despite market fluctuations [9] Hong Kong Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.17%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index slightly down by 0.01%, reflecting mixed performance across sectors [10] - Southbound capital saw a net outflow of 14.682 billion HKD, indicating a tendency for profit-taking among investors [10] - Notable inflows were seen in Tencent Holdings, while Alibaba experienced outflows, highlighting divergent investor sentiment towards different internet stocks [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and adjusted net profit for H1 2025 were 439 million and 63 million respectively, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.63% but a decline in net profit by 23.86% due to the impact of new campus ramp-up in Guangzhou and personnel adjustments in Shenzhen [2] - The company has a total of 184 learning centers, a 26.9% increase year-on-year, with 15 new centers opened in H1 2025 [3] - The company is actively seeking new business opportunities, including educational tourism and international courses, which are expected to contribute to long-term growth [3] Financial Summary - The company's gross margin, operating profit margin (OPM), and adjusted net profit margin for H1 2025 were 34.3%, 17.6%, and 18.5% respectively, reflecting declines of 10.1, 10.9, and 4.9 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company’s contract liabilities decreased by 24.5% year-on-year to 182 million [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted down to 1,053.78 million and 1,317.77 million respectively, with net profit forecasts adjusted to 186.77 million and 261.18 million [5] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are 0.33 and 0.46 respectively, with a new EPS forecast of 0.64 for 2027 [5] Profitability and Valuation - The company’s revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.85% from 2023 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 58.03% and 69.38% for 2023 and 2024 respectively [8] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 7.87, 5.63, and 4.07 respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company exceeded market expectations in H1 2025 with revenue, net profit, and operating cash flow of $1.229 billion, $98 million, and $155 million respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 12.4%, 16.8%, and 255.4% [2] - The company plans to expand its customer base in Europe in the second half of 2025, which is expected to drive future growth [3] - The company declared a dividend of 16.3 HK cents per share for H1 2025, up from 13.8 HK cents in H1 2024, with a payout ratio of 60% and an annualized dividend yield of 5.4% [2] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 19.7%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily driven by improved production efficiency in leisure and underwear segments [4] - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 8.0%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with stable administrative and R&D expenses [4] - The company’s inventory increased by 18.51% year-on-year to $352 million, leading to an increase in inventory turnover days by 4 days to 59 days [5] Growth Strategy - The company aims to leverage growth opportunities in Europe and Asia, with a focus on expanding its customer base and establishing new production facilities [3][6] - The company’s revenue forecast for 2025 is set at $2.813 billion, with net profit expected to be $235 million, corresponding to an EPS of $0.08 [7] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of denim and underwear customer segments, as well as the growing demand in the women's sports market [6][7] Valuation Metrics - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9, 8, and 7 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [7] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 13.91% from 2025 to 2026 [9]

Group 1 - The long-term horizontal fluctuation of A-shares since 2010 is attributed to a continuous decline in ROE and a higher fundraising scale compared to dividend amounts, leading to liquidity consumption during periods of insufficient incremental capital entering the market [2][11]. - A new bull market for A-shares has begun, driven by China's economic resilience, significant household savings, and a positive feedback effect from capital market vitality, which is expected to stimulate investment in the stock market [3][17]. - The current market is transitioning into a "slow bull" phase, supported by regulatory reforms, a shift towards long-term investment strategies, and the influx of long-term capital from various institutional investors [5][42]. Group 2 - A-shares are entering a new "slow bull" cycle driven by institutional reforms, optimized capital structure, and economic momentum conversion, with a focus on new technologies and consumption [5][59]. - The improvement of the investor return mechanism is crucial for sustaining the "slow bull" market, with policies aimed at balancing financing and investment, enhancing dividend regulations, and encouraging share buybacks [5][64]. - The influx of long-term capital from insurance funds, pension funds, and potential stabilizing funds is expected to optimize the investor structure in A-shares, reinforcing market stability [5][50].

证券研究报告|策略专题报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 20 日 [Table_Title] 站上十年新起点，A 股步入"慢牛"新周期 [Table_Title2] [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 一、过去 A 股长期横向震荡的原因。1）2010 年起，A 股 ROE 持续下行。中国在经济产业结构转型过程中，传统投资 出口拉动增长的模式边际效应递减；2）2024 年以前，A 股 募资规模（IPO、增发）持续高于分红金额，并且市场上行 阶段往往伴随重要股东净减持规模增加，在增量资金入市不 足阶段持续消耗流动性。 分析师：张海燕 邮箱：zhanghy5@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120521040002 相关研究 [Table_Report] 二、A 股新一轮牛市已然启动。1）全球贸易不确定性增强， 但中国经济的强大韧性正在得到越来越广泛的国际认可； 2）居民部门积累大量超额储蓄，资产荒权益市场吸引力提 升。截至 2025 年上半年，住户存款向上偏离 2011-2019 年 间的趋势线约 50 万亿元以上，意味着股市潜在增量资金庞 大。当前居民存款搬家仍处于早期 ...