期货市场交易指引 2025 年 09 月 12 日 | ◆股指： | 宏观金融 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | --- | --- | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 观望或逢低持多，短线交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡运行 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆纯碱： | 空 01 多 05 套利 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡运行 | | ◆橡胶： | 偏强震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡运行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, recommended to hold [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][8] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Neutral on copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver. For copper, recommended to hold or buy on dips for short-term trading; for aluminum, recommended to buy on dips after a pullback; for nickel, recommended to hold or short on rallies; for tin, gold, and silver, recommended for range trading [1][10][11][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins. Most are expected to trade in a range, with PVC, caustic soda, and styrene having specific price ranges to watch; rubber is expected to be strongly bullish in the short term; for soda ash, recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract for arbitrage [1][20][21][25] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton, cotton yarn, and PTA, recommended for range trading; bullish on apples, expected to be strongly bullish; bearish on red dates, expected to be weakly bearish [1][34][36][37] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on live pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn and soybean meal, recommended for range trading; bullish on oils, expected to be strongly bullish in the short term but currently experiencing a high-level correction [1][38][40][46] Core Views - The A-share market is in a confidence restoration phase after adjustment, and the mid-term upward drive remains unchanged. The bond market is under pressure and lacks rebound momentum [5] - The black building materials market is in a stalemate, with the price of coking coal rising slowly and the price of rebar expected to fall first and then rise in September [7] - The non-ferrous metals market is affected by both macro and fundamental factors, with the price of copper expected to fluctuate at a high level and the price of aluminum expected to be supported by supply and demand [10][11] - The energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and policy, with the price of PVC expected to fluctuate in the short term and the price of soda ash recommended for arbitrage [20][33] - The cotton textile industry chain market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policy, with the price of cotton expected to be strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [34] - The agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policy, with the price of live pigs expected to be under pressure in the long term but with short-term rebound potential [39] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The A-share market oscillated and pulled up on Wednesday, with the trading volume shrinking slightly, indicating that the market is gradually entering the confidence restoration phase after adjustment. In the medium term, the upward drive of the market remains unchanged, and it is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market was under pressure on Wednesday, with the yield curve steepening significantly. The negative factors included tight capital, supply pressure, and the stock-bond seesaw effect. If the market environment does not change, it will take time for the market to clear [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The price increase of pithead coal slowed down, and the market was in a stalemate. It is recommended to wait for a driving force [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price of rebar oscillated narrowly on Wednesday. The fundamental supply and demand weakened, but it is the traditional peak season in September. It is expected that the price will fall first and then rise, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7] - **Glass**: The supply and demand of glass improved, and the fundamentals were better than in July and August. It is recommended to take partial profits on the 01 long position and buy on dips [8] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price of copper was affected by both macro and fundamental factors, with the short-term upward momentum insufficient and the overall high-level oscillation expected. It is recommended to hold or buy on dips for short-term trading [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum was supported by supply and demand, with the demand entering the peak season and the inventory approaching the inflection point. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long AD and short AL [11] - **Nickel**: The price of nickel was affected by macro and fundamental factors, with the short-term price affected by the macro environment and the long-term supply surplus continuing. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [15] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was expected to recover. It is recommended for range trading and to pay attention to the supply resumption and downstream demand [17] - **Silver and Gold**: The price of silver and gold was supported by the expectation of interest rate cuts and concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical situation. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price correction [16][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply and demand of PVC were still weak, but the valuation was low, and it was recommended to pay attention to policy and cost disturbances. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the 01 contract is recommended to watch the range of 4700 - 5000 [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda was affected by factors such as warehouse receipts, supply, and demand. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is recommended to watch the range of 2530 - 2680 [21][22] - **Styrene**: The price of styrene was affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to watch the range of 6900 - 7200 [25] - **Rubber**: The price of rubber was affected by factors such as cost, inventory, and demand. It is expected to be strongly bullish in the short term, and it is recommended to watch the support level of 15600 [25][26] - **Urea**: The supply of urea decreased, and the demand was weak. The inventory continued to accumulate. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 1650 - 1700 for the 01 contract [27][28] - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol was stable, and the demand was expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to watch the range of 2350 - 2450 for the 01 contract [28] - **Polyolefins**: The demand for polyolefins improved, but the supply pressure of PP was large. It is expected that the LL主力合约 will oscillate in a range, and the PP will oscillate weakly. It is recommended to watch the range of 7200 - 7500 for the LL主力合约 and 6900 - 7200 for the PP [30] - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash was abundant, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract for arbitrage [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply and demand of cotton improved, but the increase in new cotton production was expected to put pressure on the price. It is recommended to do a good job in hedging [34] - **PTA**: The inventory of PTA decreased recently, but the supply increased in the far month, and the oil price weakened. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to watch the range of 4600 - 4950 [35][36] - **Apples**: The price of early-ripening apples was firm, and it is expected to remain strongly bullish [36] - **Red Dates**: The consumption of red dates was weak, and the price was under pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly [37] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The supply of live pigs increased in September, and the price was under pressure in the long term. However, there was short-term rebound potential due to policy regulation and holiday demand. It is recommended to take rolling stop-profit on the 11 and 01 short positions and add short positions on rebounds [39] - **Eggs**: The demand for eggs was boosted by school openings and Mid-Autumn Festival preparations, and the supply pressure was relieved to some extent. However, the supply was still sufficient in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious about shorting the 12 and 01 contracts and watch for range trading [40] - **Corn**: The new corn was about to be listed, and the old corn inventory was relatively tight. It is recommended to pay attention to the listing time of the new corn and watch the 11 contract for range trading [43] - **Soybean Meal**: The price of soybean meal was affected by factors such as the US soybean supply and demand, domestic inventory, and cost. It is recommended to watch the support level of 3030 for the M2601 contract and pay attention to the USDA supply and demand report [46] - **Oils**: The price of oils was in a high-level correction, with the short-term support levels of 8200, 9200, and 9700 for the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil respectively. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage of the 11 - 01 contracts of rapeseed oil [46][51]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - bullish in the medium to long term, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds - hold and observe [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal - range trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - buy on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - hold and observe or buy on dips for short - term trading; Aluminum - recommended to buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel - recommend to observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1][9][10][13][14] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - volatile; Caustic soda - volatile; Soda ash - short 01 and long 05 arbitrage; Styrene - volatile; Rubber - bullish volatile; Urea - volatile; Methanol - volatile; Polyolefins - wide - range volatile [1][19][20][24][27][28][30] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - volatile; PTA - volatile; Apples - bullish volatile; Jujubes - bearish volatile [1][34][36][38] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range volatile; Soybean meal - range volatile; Oils - bullish volatile [1][39][40][41][45][51] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products across multiple industries. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macro - economic environment, and policy expectations. For most products, the market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with some showing potential for long - term improvement based on factors like seasonal demand, trade policies, and production capacity changes [1][5][7][9][19][34][39] Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: A - share market was volatile on Tuesday. Short - term market fluctuations are intensifying. It is recommended to focus on high - growth overseas - oriented sectors, AI - related opportunities, and non - banking sectors. The technology theme may remain active, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market has been weak recently. Market sentiment is fragile, and it is recommended to hold and observe in the short term [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Steel mills' daily hot - metal production decreased this week. After the parade, production is expected to recover. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand season is approaching, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Coking coal is recommended to be observed in the range of [1030 - 1230] [7] - **Rebar**: Futures prices fluctuated on Tuesday. The iron ore price rose, but the impact is on the far - term. Fundamental supply and demand weakened, but it is the traditional demand season in September. It is recommended to buy on dips, and the RB2601 contract should focus on the [3000 - 3100] support level [7] - **Glass**: Supply increased slightly last week, and inventory was stable overall. Demand improved, and the market sentiment warmed up. It is recommended to take partial profit on the 01 long position and buy on dips around the 1130 - 1140 support level [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US employment data declined, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut increased, but concerns about the US economy limited the upside of copper prices. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the consumption season is approaching. Copper prices are expected to remain volatile at a high level, with a short - term operating range of 79000 - 80500 yuan/ton [9][10] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite in Guinea increased, and the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum was stable. Demand is entering the peak season, and it is recommended to buy on dips and consider the long AD and short AL arbitrage strategy [10] - **Nickel**: The demonstration in Indonesia and the Fed rate - cut expectation affected nickel prices. The supply of nickel ore is expected to increase, but the price has support. The nickel market is in an oversupply situation in the long term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [13][14] - **Tin**: Domestic refined tin production decreased in August. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand for semiconductors is expected to recover. Tin prices are expected to be volatile, with the Shanghai tin 10 - contract operating in the range of 26 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [15][16] - **Gold and Silver**: The US non - farm payrolls in August were lower than expected, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. Gold and silver prices rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips after a pullback, with the Shanghai gold 10 - contract operating in the range of 790 - 835 and the Shanghai silver 10 - contract in the range of 9100 - 10000 [16][18] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, supply is high, and demand is weak. Exports may face challenges. The market is expected to be volatile, and the 01 contract should focus on the 4700 - 5000 range [19][20] - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by factors such as inventory and demand, the market is expected to be volatile, and the 01 contract should focus on the 2530 - 2680 range [20][21] - **Styrene**: Due to factors like cost and demand, the market is expected to be volatile, and it should focus on the 6900 - 7200 range [22][24] - **Rubber**: The cost provides support, but the high - price raw materials face resistance from downstream. The market is expected to be bullish volatile, and it should focus on the 15600 support level [24][25] - **Urea**: Supply decreased slightly, demand was weak, and inventory increased. It is expected to be volatile, and the 01 contract should focus on the 1650 - 1700 support level [27][28] - **Methanol**: Supply was stable, cost was weak, and demand was mixed. The market is expected to be volatile, and the 01 contract should focus on the 2350 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: The "Golden September and Silver October" demand season is approaching, and downstream demand is improving. PE supply pressure is relieved, while PP supply is high. LL is expected to be range - volatile in the 7200 - 7500 range, and PP is expected to be bearish volatile in the 6900 - 7200 range [30] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is weak, and supply is abundant. It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract for arbitrage [33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global cotton supply and demand are improving, but new cotton production is expected to increase. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [34] - **PTA**: Crude oil prices fell, and PTA supply increased. The market is expected to be volatile, and it should focus on the 4600 - 4950 range [35][36] - **Apples**: Early - maturing apples are priced higher than last year, and the market is expected to be bullish volatile [36] - **Jujubes**: Consumption is weak, and the market is expected to be bearish volatile [38] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: Supply increased in September, and demand growth was slow. The price is under pressure, but policies and holiday demand may provide support. It is recommended to take profit on short positions and add short positions on rallies, and consider the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [39] - **Eggs**: Short - term demand was boosted, and supply pressure was relieved. However, cold - storage eggs may affect the price. It is recommended to be cautious about shorting the 12 and 01 contracts, and the market is expected to be range - volatile [40] - **Corn**: The new crop is about to be listed, and the old - crop inventory is relatively tight. The 11 contract should not be overly bearish. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [41][43] - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean price has support, and domestic supply is abundant in the short term. The price is expected to be volatile, and the M2601 contract should focus on the 3030 support level [45][46] - **Oils**: Short - term price increases are limited due to factors such as inventory and report expectations. In the long term, demand is expected to improve, and it is recommended to buy on dips and consider the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 contract positive arbitrage [51]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 09 月 09 日 | ◆股指： | 宏观金融 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | --- | --- | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 观望或逢低持多，短线交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡运行 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆纯碱： | 空 01 多 05 套利 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡运行 | | ◆橡胶： | 偏强震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡运行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The non - farm payrolls in the US in August were significantly lower than expected, leading to an increase in the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut, and precious metal prices continued to rebound. The impact of Trump on the Fed's independence is evident, and the results of trade negotiations between the US and multiple countries have been finalized, with the tariff increase generally lower than market expectations, raising the market's optimistic expectation of a trade agreement between the US and Europe. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week exceeded expectations, and Powell stated that changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates, and the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is unlikely to be sustained. With the US tariff policy basically finalized, the market is concerned about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, and it is expected that precious metal prices will have support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the US August CPI inflation data to be released on Thursday [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The non - farm payrolls in August were significantly lower than expected, and the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut increased. The price of US gold continued to rise. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $3,640 per ounce, up 3.5% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3,690, and the lower support level is $3,570 [6]. - The non - farm payrolls in August were significantly lower than expected, and the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut increased. The price of US silver continued to rise. As of last Friday, it had a weekly increase of 4.5%, closing at $41.5 per ounce. The lower support level is $39, and the upper resistance level is $42.5 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - The non - farm payrolls in the US in August were significantly lower than expected, increasing the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut, and precious metal prices continued to rebound. The market expects a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week exceeded expectations, and Powell said there were more reasons to cut interest rates. With the US tariff policy basically finalized, the market is worried about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, and precious metal prices are expected to have support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the US August CPI inflation data to be released on Thursday [11]. - Strategy suggestion: Buy on dips after the price correction. Refer to the operating range of 790 - 835 for the Shanghai Gold 10 contract and 9100 - 10000 for the Shanghai Silver 10 contract [13]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - No specific analysis content is provided in the text, only some data charts are presented, including real interest rates (10 - year TIPS yield), US dollar index, US Treasury yields (2 - year, 10 - year), spread (10Y - 2Y), Fed balance sheet size, gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trend [16][18][23]. 3.4 Current Week's Important Economic Data | Economic Indicator | Published Value | Expected Value | Previous Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US August non - farm payrolls change (seasonally adjusted, in millions) | 2.2 | 7.5 | 7.3 | | US August unemployment rate (%) | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | | US August ADP employment change (in millions) | 5.4 | 6.5 | 10.4 | | US August ISM manufacturing PMI | 48.7 | 49 | 48 | [27] 3.5 Current Week's Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies - The number of non - farm payrolls in the US in August increased by 2.2 million, lower than the expected 7.5 million. The total downward revision for June and July was 2.1 million, a smaller margin than the 25.8 - million downward revision in the single July non - farm report. The average hourly wage in August increased by 0.3% month - on - month, in line with market expectations. The unemployment rate in August rose to 4.3%, also in line with market expectations [28]. - New York Fed President Williams said that if the US economy experiences a moderate increase in the unemployment rate and a slowdown in inflation next year as expected, the Fed may gradually lower short - term borrowing costs. He also said that the current monetary policy is at a "moderately restrictive" level, consistent with the current economic situation [28]. 3.6 Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory increased by 993.6 kg to 1,211,723.87 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 3,711 kg to 43,335 kg [13]. - Silver: COMEX inventory increased by 4,226.1 kg to 16,123,066.31 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 69,413 kg to 1,265,409 kg [13]. 3.7 Fund Holdings | Metal | CFTC Speculative Fund Net Long Positions | Change Compared to Last Week | | --- | --- | --- | | Gold | 244,432 contracts | 34,702 contracts | | Silver | 52,737 contracts | 8,807 contracts | [36] 3.8 This Week's Focus | Time | Specific Time | Important Economic Indicator | | --- | --- | --- | | Wednesday (September 10th) | 20:30 | US August PPI annual rate | | Thursday (September 11th) | 20:30 | US August CPI annual rate (unadjusted) | [38]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 09 月 08 日 | ◆股指： | 宏观金融 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | --- | --- | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 建议低位适度持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡运行 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆纯碱： | 空 01 多 05 套利 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡运行 | | ◆橡胶： | 偏强震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡运行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: After the short - term trading overheating risk is gradually released, the market may still need to go through a process of shock consolidation. However, from a medium - term perspective, the upward trend remains intact, and the overall judgment of a structural bull market remains unchanged [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In the short term, risk appetite continues to disrupt the bond market. Three scenarios need to be vigilant: if the equity market breaks through with heavy volume, the bond market may be under pressure; if the stock market fluctuates and consolidates, the 10 - year treasury bond is expected to fluctuate around the fundamentals and capital situation; if the equity market corrects significantly, the yield curve may decline as a whole, but for the 10 - year treasury bond to effectively break through 2.5%, incremental positive catalysts are needed [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - **Trend Review**: Last week, major broad - based A - share indexes were generally under pressure, and market volatility increased significantly. Growth - style indexes had a large correction, and large - cap blue - chip and small - and medium - cap stocks also weakened [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The nature of the current market rebound remains to be confirmed. Although there was a significant rise on Friday, the overall trading volume did not effectively increase, which is a concern. To confirm a technical reversal, certain conditions need to be met [6]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Buy on dips [6]. Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions - **Trend Review**: Last week, the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the money market became looser at the beginning of the month. The yield curve flattened slightly, and treasury bond futures were affected by the rise and fall of the equity market [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The upward trend of the 10 - year treasury bond futures main contract T2409 was interrupted on Friday, with negative technical indicators showing weakening short - term momentum [7]. - **Strategy Outlook**: If the support level is effectively broken, stop losses in a timely manner. In the short term, use a band - trading strategy [7]. Key Data Tracking - **PMI**: In July, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, weaker than market expectations and seasonal trends. Supply and demand both weakened, and different industries showed different trends [11]. - **Inflation**: In August, the year - on - year change in the consumer price index was flat, and the month - on - month increase was 0.4%. The year - on - year decrease in the producer price index was 3.6%, and the month - on - month decrease was 0.2%. There were positive changes in prices, but overall, they remained sluggish [14]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 5.7%, mainly dragged down by the export chain [17]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: In August, the estimated year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned negative to - 5.2%. The reasons were complex, including short - term, medium - term, and long - term factors [20]. - **Social Retail Sales**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales fell to 3.7%. The slowdown was mainly reflected in catering, sales of state - subsidized products, and real - estate - related consumption [23]. - **Social Financing**: In August, new social financing was 1.2 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were negative. Although the growth rates of social financing, M1, and M2 improved, the credit increase was negative. In the future, the social financing growth rate may peak and decline, and policies may be adjusted according to the situation [26]. - **Imports and Exports**: In August, imports and exports were significantly stronger than market expectations, mainly due to the "rush" behavior under the threat of US tariffs [29]. Weekly Focus - **China**: Foreign exchange reserves, import and export amounts, M0/M1/M2 balances, social financing scale, CPI, and PPI year - on - year data [31]. - **Japan**: Revised year - on - year GDP in the second quarter at constant prices [31]. - **EU**: Eurozone benchmark interest rates and deposit and lending rates [31].

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长江期货聚烯烃周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员： 张 英 执业编号:F03105021 投资咨询号:Z0021335 2025-09-08 01 聚烯烃：金九银十提振需求，基本面出现分化 01 核心观点总结 资料来源：iFIND，隆众资讯，长江期货 1 市场变化：9月5日，l主力合约收盘于7245元/吨，PP主力合约收盘于6961元/吨，LP价差为284元/吨（-2）。LDPE均价为 9616.67元/吨，环比-0.35%，HDPE均价为7962.50元/吨，环比-0.25%，华南地区LLDPE（7042）均价为7583.53元/吨，环 比-0.10%。LLDPE华南基差收于338.53元/吨，环比+11.29%，5-9月差50元/吨（+8）。基差走阔，月差走阔。生意社聚丙 烯现货价报收7113.33元/吨（-1.30%），PP基差252元/吨（-63），基差走缩。5-9月差127元/吨（+14），月差扩大。 2 基本面变化：1、供应端：聚乙烯生产开工率80.55%，较上周+1.86个百分点，聚乙烯周度产量63.25万吨，环 ...

长江期货养殖产业周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-9-8 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 目 录 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 02 品种产业数据分析 u 期现端：截至9月5日，鸡蛋主产区均价报3.11元/斤，较上周五涨0.01元/斤，鸡蛋主销区均价报3.06元/斤，较上周五涨0.09元/斤；鸡蛋主力2510收于2964元 /500千克，较上周五涨25元/500千克；主力合约基差-34元/500千克，较上周五走强195元/500千克。周度蛋价大幅上涨，受学校开学、中秋备货提振需求， 下游入市积极性增加，支撑蛋价脱离底部快速反弹，不过冷库蛋预计逢高出货，增加市场供应，随着蛋价涨至高位，备货需求落幕，预计未来一周蛋价先涨 后跌。盘面主力10合约，持仓量大，当前几乎平水现货，基差处于历史偏低水平。 u 供应端：9月新开产蛋鸡对应2025年5月补栏环同比均增加，开产量维持偏高，当前养殖端惜淘情绪有所缓解，淘汰鸡出栏增加，淘汰日龄加速下滑，预计9 月淘汰鸡出栏环比增加，重点关注养殖端是否存在超 ...