1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea prices are in a range - bound fluctuation. Urea's检修装置 has复产 plans, leading to an increase in daily output and supply. Agricultural demand is gradually limited, and industrial demand shows a mixed trend with a narrow fluctuation in compound fertilizer production capacity utilization rate and a decrease in melamine operating rate. Due to logistics and holidays, new orders in the market are gradually slowing down, but urea enterprises have a decent backlog of orders. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Changes - Urea's futures price fluctuated weakly, while the spot price moved slightly upward. On February 6, the closing price of the Urea 2605 contract was 1776 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton or 0.78% from the previous week, with a maximum of 1798 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1766 yuan/ton. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1744 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous week. [2][5] - The main - contract basis of urea strengthened. On February 6, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 32 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (-46) - (-27) yuan/ton. [2][8] - The 5 - 9 spread of urea strengthened. On February 6, the 5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of 32 - 38 yuan/ton. [2][9] 3.2 Fundamental Changes 3.2.1 Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 87.98%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 64.6%, an increase of 3.12 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average output of urea was 20.99 tons. Some overhauled devices in Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Shandong resumed production or increased production, and the daily output reached around 210,000 tons, with sufficient supply of goods. [2][12] 3.2.2 Cost and Profit - The price of anthracite coal in the market was slightly stronger on a stable basis. As of February 5, the tax - inclusive price of washed anthracite small lumps with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 880 - 930 yuan/ton, with the same closing price center as the previous week. The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was 0.33%, and that of gas - based urea was - 9.66%. The mainstream price of the urea spot market moved upward, and the urea production profit remained stable. [2][16] 3.2.3 Demand - The average advance receipt of major urea producers was 6.5 days, and the weekly production - sales ratio of urea enterprises was 99.6%. Agricultural demand was gradually limited. In terms of industrial demand, the production capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers fluctuated slightly, and the operating rate of melamine decreased. Due to logistics and holidays, new orders in the market were gradually slowing down, but urea enterprises had a decent backlog of orders. [2][17][18] 3.2.4 Industrial Demand - The production capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 41.79%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 749,300 tons, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points from the previous week. Winter storage shipments continued to slow down, some fertilizer enterprises reduced production, and the growth rate of spot inventory slowed down. As the Spring Festival approaches next week, some fertilizer enterprises will stop production for holidays as planned, and it is expected that the production capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers may continue to decline. [2][22] - The operating rate of melamine enterprises was 59.83%, a decrease of 3.65 percentage points from the previous week, with a weekly output of 32,080 tons. This week, new devices in Hebei Xinji Jiuyuan, Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Phase II, Shandong Heli Tai, and Xinjiang Yuxiang Huyang were shut down for maintenance. The D - area of Sichuan Jinxiang Sairui and Anhui Jinhe had resumed production after short - term shutdowns. [25] - The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores decreased, and the demand support in the panel market weakened. [26] 3.2.5 Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 720,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 55,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Urea port inventory was 241,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 10,860, equivalent to 217,200 tons, an increase of 1,599 receipts or 31,980 tons compared with the same period last year. [2][29] 3.3 Key Points to Watch - The operating conditions of compound fertilizers, the reduction and overhaul of urea devices, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term and suggest buying on dips; government bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][6] - Black building materials: Coking coal is suitable for short-term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to buy on dips [1][6] - Non-ferrous metals: Copper, aluminum, and nickel are advised to wait and see; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][11] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash are advised to wait and see; polyolefins are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][17] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust sideways; apples and jujubes are expected to trade sideways [1][25] - Agricultural and livestock: Pigs are in short-term supply-demand games, and off-season contracts suggest shorting on rallies; eggs are overvalued, and post-festival contracts can be hedged on rallies; corn is cautious about chasing highs in the short term, and grain holders can hedge on rallies; soybean meal's M2603 contract is expected to trade sideways in the short term; oils are expected to trade at high levels in the short term, suggesting buying on dips and being cautious about risks before the holiday [1][27] Core Views The report analyzes the market conditions of various futures varieties from multiple aspects such as macro factors, supply and demand fundamentals, and cost factors. It provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the characteristics and trends of each variety, including trading strategies and points to watch [1][6]. Summary by Directory Macro-finance - Index futures: Due to overseas rebounds and reduced liquidity shock disturbances, they are expected to trade strongly sideways. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [6] - Government bonds: There is no obvious major negative in the bond market, but there is no further impetus to push interest rates down. They are expected to trade sideways [6] Black building materials - Double coking: The coal market shows short-term fluctuations, and the sustainability of the price increase is insufficient. It is recommended for short-term trading [7][8] - Rebar: The futures price is undervalued statically, and the cost support is weakened. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and light positions are recommended before the holiday [8] - Glass: Affected by production line shutdowns and demand, the price is expected to trade sideways and is recommended to buy on dips [9][10] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: Affected by macro factors, it is expected to trade at high levels. It is recommended to wait and see [11] - Aluminum: The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is under pressure. It is recommended to increase the observation and reduce positions before the holiday [13] - Nickel: Affected by the Indonesian quota reduction, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [14][15] - Tin: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is rigid. It is expected to trade sideways, and range trading is recommended [15] - Gold and silver: Affected by the Fed's expected policy change, the mid-term price center moves up. They are expected to trade sideways, and range trading is recommended [16] - Lithium carbonate: Affected by supply and demand, it is expected to trade in a range [17] Energy and chemicals - PVC: The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [17][19] - Caustic soda: The supply pressure is large, and the demand support is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [19] - Styrene: The inventory is expected to decrease, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [20][21] - Rubber: The supply is tightened, and the demand is weakened. It is expected to trade sideways in a range [21] - Urea: The supply is increasing, and the demand is supported. It is expected to trade sideways in a range [22] - Methanol: The supply is decreasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to trade sideways in a range [23] - Polyolefins: The supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak. They are expected to trade weakly sideways [23][24] - Soda ash: The supply is in surplus, and the cost is rising. It is recommended to wait and see [24] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The global supply and demand are improving, but the internal and external price difference suppresses the price. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [25] - Apples and jujubes: The market is stable, and they are expected to trade sideways [25][27] Agricultural and livestock - Pigs: The short-term supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is not optimistic. It is recommended to short on rallies for off-season contracts [27] - Eggs: The supply pressure is postponed, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hedge post-festival contracts on rallies [29] - Corn: The short-term market is balanced, and the medium to long-term supply and demand are loose. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rallies [30] - Soybean meal: The M2603 contract is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support at 3030 [31] - Oils: They are expected to trade at high levels in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to risks before the holiday [31][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall idea is to allocate long positions at low levels, reduce positions before the Spring Festival, and pay attention to capital sentiment. Although the supply expectation has improved, the current market sentiment of being bullish on non - ferrous metals remains unchanged [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - ly View - In Shanxi and Henan, bauxite prices are stable. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore remained stable at $61.5 per dry ton week - on - week. Alumina operating capacity decreased by 800,000 tons to 94.25 million tons week - on - week, and the national alumina inventory increased by 79,000 tons to 5.193 million tons. Electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 42,000 tons to 44.676 million tons week - on - week. Domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises' operating rate decreased by 1.5% to 57.9% week - on - week. Aluminum ingot social inventory continued to accumulate during the week. The order support for recycled cast aluminum alloy was insufficient, dragging down the operating rate of recycled aluminum plants [4]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year real yield), the US dollar index, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB [6]. 3.3. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite prices have been stable recently. Fundamental issues such as mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental supervision are difficult to solve in the short term. Most mines enter the shutdown period during the Spring Festival, and the resumption of production is generally postponed until after the National Two Sessions. The cost of using domestic ore is significantly higher than that of imported ore, and the continuous decline in the price of imported ore puts great pressure on domestic ore. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore remained stable at $61.5 per dry ton week - on - week. The shipping volume of Guinea ore increased, and the spot supply of imported ore increased, putting pressure on the ore price [9]. 3.4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, unchanged week - on - week; the operating capacity was 94.25 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 82.3%. The weighted price of domestic spot alumina was 2,610.4 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 5.193 million tons, an increase of 79,000 tons week - on - week. Near the Spring Festival, the operating capacity of alumina in the country fluctuates. Two alumina enterprises in Guangxi that had been under maintenance will resume production one after another, and two enterprises in Shanxi that had planned maintenance will carry out maintenance. The decline in bauxite prices provides room for alumina enterprises to reduce production costs and also opens up space for a possible decline in alumina prices [12]. 3.5. Important High - frequency Data of Alumina - The report presents data on the basis, alumina port inventory, north - south price difference, and alumina transportation volume [14][15][16][17]. 3.6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.402 million tons, unchanged week - on - week; the operating capacity was 44.676 million tons, an increase of 42,000 tons week - on - week. New production capacity: The first - phase 120,000 - ton capacity of Tianshan Aluminum has reached full production, and the second - phase 80,000 - ton capacity is still under construction, expected to reach full production within the year. Zha Aluminum's 350,000 - ton capacity will be built and put into production and reach full production in 2026. Guangxi Longlin is accelerating the revitalization of 57,100 tons of idle capacity. Overseas, on the 11th, the first batch of 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project in North Kalimantan, Indonesia, started production. On the 15th, the first - phase 120,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of Huatong Angola Industrial Co., Ltd. held an official commissioning ceremony, and full production may be achieved in the second quarter [19]. 3.7. Important High - frequency Data of Electrolytic Aluminum - The report presents data on the processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, the forward curve of Shanghai aluminum, the price of thermal coal, and the import profit of aluminum [21]. 3.8. Inventory - The report presents data on the social inventory of aluminum rods, the social inventory of aluminum ingots, the aluminum futures inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the LME aluminum inventory [23][24][25][26]. 3.9. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises decreased by 0.6% to 58.3% week - on - week. The decline in aluminum prices did not effectively stimulate trading volume. Downstream die - casting enterprises mainly purchased for rigid demand and replenished inventory at low prices due to weak orders and the expectation of pre - holiday shutdown, with low inventory - building willingness. Insufficient order support dragged down the operating rate of recycled aluminum plants [29]. 3.10. Important High - frequency Data of Cast Aluminum Alloy - The report presents data on the average price of profile aluminum, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the seasonal trend of the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots [31][32][33][34]. 3.11. Downstream Operating Rate (First Part) - The operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 1.5% to 57.9% week - on - week. The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises decreased by 8.3% to 36% week - on - week. As the Spring Festival approaches, profile enterprises are in the year - end finishing stage, and the operating rate has declined. The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises increased by 2% to 66% week - on - week. The environmental protection restrictions in the central plains region have temporarily ended, and related enterprises have gradually resumed pre - holiday inventory - building, while accelerating the shipment of finished products to reduce inventory pressure. Can - making materials still maintain full - line operation, and the production lines of mid - and low - end products have seen an increase in operating rate due to the decline in aluminum prices and pre - holiday inventory - building demand [41]. 3.12. Downstream Operating Rate (Second Part) - The operating rate of domestic leading cable enterprises decreased by 2.6% to 58% week - on - week. As the Spring Festival approaches, enterprises actively adjust their production rhythm, resulting in a decline in operating rate. Although downstream cable enterprises have successively received power grid orders at the average price of last week, the shipment rhythm of leading enterprises has slowed down due to weak terminal提货 demand at the end of the year. The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises decreased by 0.5% to 57.9% week - on - week. As the Spring Festival approaches, most enterprises actively reduce production due to the traditional off - season, and both production and on - hand orders show a slight contraction [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Trump nominated Jerome Powell as the new Fed Chair, leading to an increase in hawkish expectations. The surge in initial jobless claims in the US has caused the prices of precious metals to diverge. The Fed's January FOMC meeting kept interest rates unchanged, and the US employment situation has slowed down. Powell stated that the changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates. After Powell's nomination, the market still expects two interest rate cuts this year, but there may be a resumption of balance sheet reduction. The US economic data is trending weaker, and the market is concerned about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up. The lease rates of platinum and palladium remain high, and it is expected that the prices of platinum and palladium will have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the US January non - farm payroll data to be released on Wednesday and the US January inflation data to be released on Friday [11]. - It is expected that the prices will continue to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to build positions at low levels after the prices have fully corrected [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Due to the increase in hawkish expectations after the new Fed Chair's appointment and the surge in US initial jobless claims, the gold price rebounded. As of last Friday, the US gold closed at $4,989 per ounce, up 1.7% for the week. The upper resistance level is $5,050, and the lower support level is $4,750 [6]. - Due to the increase in hawkish expectations after the new Fed Chair's appointment, the surge in US initial jobless claims, and the increasing recession expectations, the silver price continued to decline. As of last Friday, it fell 9.1% for the week, closing at $77.5 per ounce. The lower support level is $69, and the upper resistance level is $85 [9]. 3.2 Weekly Viewpoint - The nomination of the new Fed Chair has led to an increase in hawkish expectations, and the surge in initial jobless claims has caused the prices of precious metals to diverge. The Fed's January FOMC meeting kept interest rates unchanged, and the US employment situation has slowed down. The market still expects two interest rate cuts this year, but there may be a resumption of balance sheet reduction. The US economic data is trending weaker, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up. The lease rates of platinum and palladium remain high, and their prices are expected to have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the US January non - farm payroll data and inflation data [11]. - It is expected that the prices will continue to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to build positions at low levels after the prices have fully corrected [12]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data and trends of various overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rate, yield spread, Fed balance sheet size, gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price [15][16][18]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The US January ADP employment change was 22,000, lower than the expected 48,000 and the previous value of 41,000. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 31 was 231,000, higher than the expected 212,000 and the previous value of 209,000. - The US January ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.6, higher than the expected 48.5 and the previous value of 47.9 [27]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The US January ADP employment increased by 22,000, falling short of market expectations. The previous value was revised down from 41,000 to 37,000. The US labor market in January showed little improvement, and the new employment was even lower than the already low market expectations. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US surged by 22,000 to 231,000, and the number of job openings in December dropped significantly to 6.54 million, the lowest since 2020 [28]. 3.6 Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 11,772.39 kg to 1,100,134.08 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory increased by 1,023 kg to 104,052 kg. - This week, the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 353,814.71 kg to 12,270,685.59 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 105,168 kg to 349,900 kg [13][32]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of February 3, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in gold was 161,187 contracts, a decrease of 45,248 contracts compared to last week. - As of February 3, the CFTC speculative fund net long position in silver was 24,619 contracts, an increase of 620 contracts compared to last week [13][36]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Tuesday, February 10, at 21:30, the US December retail sales month - on - month rate will be released. - On Wednesday, February 11, at 21:30, the US January non - farm payroll change (seasonally adjusted) and the US January unemployment rate will be released. - On Friday, February 13, at 21:30, the US January CPI annual rate (unadjusted) will be released [38].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Industrial Policy Boosts, Macroeconomic Disturbance Continues [1] Report Date - February 9, 2026 [1] Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined. As of February 6, it closed at 100,100 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.45%. The shortage of the ore end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee of copper concentrate continues to remain at a historical low. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is studying to include copper concentrates with large trading volumes and easy liquidity into the reserve scope. The LME-COMEX arbitrage space has narrowed, and LME copper inventories have reached a high level. Domestic copper inventories have continued to accumulate. The decline in copper prices during the week and pre-holiday stockpiling have driven downstream purchases. With Kevin Warsh being nominated as the next Fed Chairman, the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy is strong. The strengthening of the US dollar index combined with pre-holiday profit-taking sentiment is expected to cause copper prices to fluctuate widely at high levels. It is recommended to reduce trading positions before the holiday and closely monitor changes in domestic and foreign inventories [5][11] Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies 1.1 Last Week's Market Review - Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined last week. As of February 6, it closed at 100,100 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.45% [5] 1.2 Supply Side - The shortage of the ore end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot TC of copper concentrate remains low. As of February 6, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 442,000 tons, with a week-on-week decline of 18.33% and a year-on-year decline of 32.62%. As of February 6, the spot smelting fee of copper concentrate was -$51.13/ton, continuing to reach a historical low. In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.32%. Affected by the "good start" of some enterprises, the production increased compared with December. At the same time, the strong sulfuric acid price combined with the rising precious metal prices led to less production reduction pressure in January. Due to the decrease in production days in February, the production is expected to decline [8][36] 1.3 Demand Side - The copper foil production rate increased against the trend, and the production rate of refined copper rods increased with the decline in copper prices. In December, the production rates of copper strips, copper rods, and copper tubes were 68.21%, 52.74%, and 68.84% respectively. At the new high of copper prices, the terminal enterprises' ability to accept high-priced raw materials was severely insufficient, and the order volume decreased significantly. In December, the copper foil production rate was 88.2%. The copper foil industry's production rate has increased for the 8th consecutive month, and the energy storage industry continues to be booming. Downstream traditional year-end rush to support demand remains high. As of February 5, the weekly production rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 69.07%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.47 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 51.32 percentage points. The limit-down of copper prices during the week triggered downstream concentrated bottom-fishing purchases. Orders from the enameled wire and cable industries soared. Downstream enterprises placed concentrated orders on the day of the limit-down, and the single-day order volume doubled. The production of refined copper rods exceeded expectations [9][40] 1.4 Inventory - Domestic copper inventories continued to accumulate, and LME and COMEX copper inventories reached high levels. As of February 6, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 24.89 tons, a week-on-week increase of 6.83%. As of February 5, the SMM copper inventory in the country's mainstream areas was 335,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.03% compared with January 29, and a year-on-year increase of 62,700 tons. The domestic inventory continued to accumulate. As of February 6, the LME copper inventory was 183,300 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.74%, and the LME deliverable copper inventory reached an 11-month high. The COMEX copper inventory was 589,100 short tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.97%, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [10][47] 1.5 Strategy Suggestion - Fundamentally, the shortage of the ore end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee of copper concentrate continues to remain at a historical low. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is studying to include copper concentrates with large trading volumes and easy liquidity into the reserve scope, which boosts market sentiment. As the Spring Festival approaches, the production rates of downstream enterprises gradually decline, and the overall demand weakens. Domestic copper inventories have continued to accumulate. The decline in copper prices during the week and pre-holiday stockpiling have driven downstream purchases. It is expected that the inventory pressure at home and abroad will further increase after the holiday. The LME-COMEX arbitrage space has narrowed, and LME copper inventories have reached a high level. With Kevin Warsh being nominated as the next Fed Chairman, the uncertainty of the Fed's monetary policy is strong. The strengthening of the US dollar index combined with pre-holiday profit-taking sentiment is expected to cause copper prices to fluctuate widely at high levels. It is recommended to reduce trading positions before the holiday and closely monitor changes in domestic and foreign inventories [11] 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial Information 2.1 Macroeconomic Data Overview - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in January reached a new high since February 2022. According to data released on Monday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing PMI index soared from 47.9 in the previous month to 52.6, far exceeding the expected 48.5. An index above 50 means economic activity expansion, and the latest reading also exceeded all survey expectations of economists by the media. US manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in January at the fastest pace since 2022, mainly boosted by robust growth in new orders and output. The employment index reached a one-year high but remained in the contraction zone. The prices paid index reached a four-month high [16] - Trump plans to invest $12 billion to stockpile critical minerals. US President Donald Trump is preparing to launch a strategic critical minerals stockpiling plan worth a total of $12 billion, aiming to protect US manufacturers from supply chain shocks by establishing a commercial inventory mechanism and further strengthen national industrial security. According to media reports, this plan called "Project Vault" will provide a $10 billion loan through the US Export-Import Bank, combined with $1.67 billion in private capital, to purchase and store minerals for automobile manufacturers, technology companies, and other manufacturing giants. This will be the first such stockpiling project in the US private sector, not only setting a record in scale but also operating in a similar mode to the country's strategic petroleum reserve [17] - The US ADP employment in January increased by 22,000, lower than the expected 45,000. On February 4, according to data released by the ADP Research Institute, the US private sector added 22,000 new jobs in January, far lower than the market expectation of 45,000 and also lower than the revised previous value (the increase in December was revised down from 41,000 to 37,000). If not for the surge of 74,000 jobs in the education and healthcare services industries, the overall employment might have declined. By industry, many sectors showed a contraction trend. Among them, the professional and business services industry significantly reduced 57,000 positions, and the manufacturing industry also cut 8,000 jobs. The report continued the weak trend since the end of 2025, indicating that the employment market remained in a stalemate of "low recruitment, low layoffs" [17] - The US ISM services PMI in January reached a new high since 2024. Data released by the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Wednesday showed that the services PMI index in January was 53.8, the same as in December and also the same as the highest level since October 2024, better than expected. An index above 50 indicates that the US service industry, which accounts for the largest proportion of the economy, is in an expansion state. US service enterprises achieved the strongest continuous growth momentum since 2024 in January. With the recovery of business activities, the expansion momentum of the service industry increased [18] 2.2 Industrial Information Overview - Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7% year-on-year. Data released by the Chilean National Statistics Institute (INE) showed that Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7% year-on-year to 540,221 tons. The country's manufacturing output in December increased by 0.1% year-on-year [20] - Capstone Copper restarted its Mantoverde copper-gold mine during a continuous strike. According to foreign media on February 2, Canadian mining company Capstone Copper announced on Monday that although a strike by a union representing nearly 22% of its employees was still ongoing, its Mantoverde copper-gold mine in northern Chile had resumed operations. The company reiterated in a document submitted to the Australian Stock Exchange on February 1 that it expected the mine's operating capacity during the strike to remain at 50% to 75% of the normal production level. Previously, union employees rejected Capstone's latest salary proposal, causing the strike that began in January to continue to ferment, and the strike is still ongoing, and the dispute between the two sides has thus escalated. In 2025, the Mantoverde mine produced 62,308 tons of copper concentrate and 32,807 tons of cathode copper, accounting for about 0.4% of global copper production [20] - The Nonferrous Metals Industry Association will cooperate with relevant departments to strictly control new ore copper smelting projects. At the press conference on the economic operation of the nonferrous metals industry in 2025 held by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Deputy Secretary-General Duan Shaofu of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association said that the industry will solidly promote the governance of copper smelting capacity. Currently, more than 2 million tons of copper smelting projects have been stopped in China, and the excessive growth momentum of copper smelting capacity has been effectively curbed. The industry association will continue to cooperate with relevant national departments to strictly control new ore copper smelting projects and improve the situation of the increasing external procurement ratio from the source [20] - Anglo American's copper production in 2025 decreased by 10% year-on-year, and it lowered its copper production targets for 2026 - 2027. According to foreign media on February 5, the latest report released by Anglo American showed that in the fourth quarter of 2025, the company's copper production was 169,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14%. This was due to the lower ore grades of the Quellaveco and Collahuasi mines. The annual copper production in 2025 was 695,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, at the lower end of its production guidance range. Anglo American simultaneously adjusted its medium- and long-term copper production guidance, lowering its 2026 copper production target from 760,000 - 820,000 tons to 700,000 - 760,000 tons, slightly adjusting the 2027 target from 760,000 - 820,000 tons to 750,000 - 810,000 tons, and setting the 2028 target at 790,000 - 850,000 tons [20] - The strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile ended, and Capstone Copper will resume full production. According to foreign media on February 5, Canadian mining company Capstone Copper announced on Friday that the largest union at its Mantoverde copper-gold mine in Chile had approved a new three-year labor contract, and the one-month-long strike officially ended. The company has reached an agreement with all four unions at the mine, and the mine will gradually resume full production from the current capacity of about 55%. In 2025, the Mantoverde mine produced 62,308 tons of copper concentrate and 32,807 tons of copper cathode, accounting for about 0.4% of global production. Capstone Copper holds a 70% stake in the Mantoverde mine, and Japan's Mitsubishi Materials Corporation holds the remaining 30% [20] 3. Spot and Futures Market and Positioning 3.1 Premiums and Discounts - The decline in copper prices led to an increase in downstream purchases, and the contango widened under the suppression of high copper prices. The spot discount continued to converge slightly. As the Spring Festival approached and downstream enterprises stockpiled, the spot supply was tight, and Shanghai copper changed from a discount to a premium. - The LME copper 0 - 3 remained at a discount, the New York - London copper price difference turned negative, and the arbitrage window for transporting copper from the Shanghai Futures Exchange to the LME opened. The LME deliverable copper inventory has reached an 11-month high [24] 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Positions - As of February 6, the trading volume of Shanghai copper futures was 175,306 lots, a week-on-week decrease of 21.36%; the average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper during the week was 318,363 lots, a week-on-week decrease of 20.75%. Both the trading volume and trading volume of Shanghai copper decreased significantly. - As of January 30, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 1,782.99 lots, a week-on-week decrease of 78.17%. As of February 3, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 55,923 contracts, a week-on-week decrease of 3.61% [26] 4. Fundamental Data 4.1 Supply Side - The shortage of the ore end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot TC of copper concentrate remains low. As of February 6, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 442,000 tons, with a week-on-week decline of 18.33% and a year-on-year decline of 32.62%. As of February 6, the spot smelting fee of copper concentrate was -$51.13/ton, continuing to reach a historical low. - In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.32%. Affected by the "good start" of some enterprises, the production increased compared with December. At the same time, the strong sulfuric acid price combined with the rising precious metal prices led to less production reduction pressure in January. Due to the decrease in production days in February, the production is expected to decline [36] 4.2 Downstream Production Rates - In December, the production rates of copper strips, copper rods, and copper tubes were 68.21%, 52.74%, and 68.84% respectively. At the new high of copper prices, the terminal enterprises' ability to accept high-priced raw materials was severely insufficient, and the order volume decreased significantly. In December, the copper foil production rate was 88.2%. The copper foil industry's production rate has increased for the 8th consecutive month, and the energy storage industry continues to be booming. Downstream traditional year-end rush to support demand remains high. - As of February 5, the weekly production rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 69.07%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.47 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 51.32 percentage points. The limit-down of copper prices during the week triggered downstream concentrated bottom-fishing purchases. Orders from the enameled wire and cable industries soared. Downstream enterprises placed concentrated orders on the day of the limit-down, and the single-day order volume doubled. The production of refined copper rods exceeded expectations [40] 4.3 Inventory - As of February 6, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 24.89 tons, a week-on-week increase of 6.83%. As of February 5, the SMM copper inventory in the country's mainstream areas was 335,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.03% compared with January 29, and a year-on-year increase of 62,700 tons. The domestic inventory continued to accumulate. - As of February 6, the LME copper inventory was 183,300 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.74%, and the LME deliverable copper inventory reached an 11-month high. The COMEX copper inventory was 589,100 short tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.97%, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the pre - Spring Festival off - season, downstream开工率continues to decline, with some factories shutting down for holidays. Pre - holiday demand support is limited. Supply - side weekly production remains high, increasing pressure and leading to inventory accumulation. After the Spring Festival, it is necessary to note that the planned maintenance volume in February and March is limited, and supply is expected to remain under high pressure. Attention should be paid to the intensity of continuous inventory transfer downward. It is expected that the PE main contract will fluctuate weakly within a range, with attention to the 6700 support level. The PP main contract will fluctuate weakly, with attention to the 6600 support level. The strategy is mainly to sell on rallies [8] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Plastic 1.1 Market Changes - On February 6th, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6812 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.88%. The average price of LDPE was 8800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.94% compared to the previous period. The average price of HDPE was 7375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7018.89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.02%. The South China basis of LLDPE closed at 206.89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.63%. The May - September spread was - 52 yuan/ton [11] 1.2 Key Data Tracking 1.2.1 Month - to - Month Spread - On February 6th, 2026: the 1 - 5 month spread was 54 yuan/ton with a change of - 27 yuan/ton compared to January 30th; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 52 yuan/ton with a change of +3 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was - 2 yuan/ton with a change of +24 yuan/ton [18] 1.2.2 Spot Price - The prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of change. For example, in Northeast China, the price of HDPE film decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and in North China, the price of LDPE film decreased by 75 yuan/ton [19] 1.2.3 Cost - Last week, WTI crude oil closed at 63.50 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.24 US dollars/barrel compared to the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 68.05 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.78 US dollars/barrel. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River Port was 1070 yuan/ton (no change) [22] 1.2.4 Profit - The profit of oil - based PE was - 695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of coal - based PE was 314 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [27] 1.2.5 Supply - This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 85.91%, an increase of 0.56 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly polyethylene production was 71.24 tons, a decrease of 1.72%. The maintenance loss this week was 7.86 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons compared to the previous week [32] 1.2.6 2026 Production Capacity Expansion Plan - Multiple companies have production capacity expansion plans in 2026, with a total planned production capacity of 550 tons [35] 1.2.7 Maintenance Statistics - Many enterprises, such as Yanshan Petrochemical and Zhongyuan Petrochemical, have some production lines under maintenance, and some of the restart times are uncertain [36] 1.2.8 Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film was 30.18%, a decrease of 4.38% compared to the previous week. The operating rate of PE packaging film was 38.82%, a decrease of 3.25%. The operating rate of PE pipes was 23.67%, a decrease of 4.16% [38] 1.2.9 Downstream Production Ratio - Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 36.6%, which differs from the annual average by 2.9%. The data of low - pressure film differs significantly from the annual average, currently accounting for 11.5%, which differs from the annual average by 3.7% [42] 1.2.10 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 48.50 tons, an increase of 0.54 tons compared to the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 1.13% [44] 1.2.11 Warehouse Receipt - The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 9428 lots, an increase of 49 lots compared to the previous week [47] 2. PP 2.1 Market Changes - On February 6th, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6691 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan/ton compared to the previous weekend, a week - on - week decrease of 1.95% [51] 2.2 Key Data Tracking 2.2.1 Downstream Spot Price - The prices of various PP products and related products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of PP granule T30S decreased by 7 yuan compared to the previous day [55] 2.2.2 Basis - On February 6th, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6640 yuan/ton (+2.13%). The PP basis closed at - 51 yuan/ton (with a change of 53 yuan/ton), and the May - September spread was - 32 yuan/ton (with a change of 1 yuan/ton) [57] 2.2.3 Month - to - Month Spread - On February 6th, 2026: the 1 - 5 month spread was - 5 yuan/ton with a change of +18 yuan/ton compared to January 30th; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 32 yuan/ton with a change of +1 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was 37 yuan/ton with a change of - 19 yuan/ton [63] 2.2.4 Cost - Last week, WTI crude oil closed at 63.50 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.24 US dollars/barrel compared to the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 68.05 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.78 US dollars/barrel. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River Port was 1070 yuan/ton (no change) [66] 2.2.5 Profit - The profit of oil - based PP was - 626.13 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78.01 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of coal - based PP was - 161.35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 79.61 yuan/ton [71] 2.2.6 Supply - This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 73.92%, a decrease of 0.66 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly production of PP pellets reached 76.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.89%. The weekly production of PP powder reached 5.66 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92% [75] 2.2.7 Maintenance Statistics - Many enterprises, such as Qilu Petrochemical and Luoyang Petrochemical, have production lines under maintenance, and some of the restart times are uncertain [79] 2.2.8 Demand - This week, the average operating rate of PP downstream was 49.84% (- 2.24%). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 36.74% (- 5.30%), the operating rate of BOPP was 64.55% (+0.38%), the operating rate of injection molding was 53.02% (- 4.60%), and the operating rate of pipes was 33.70% (- 3.17%) [81] 2.2.9 Import and Export Profit - This week, the polypropylene import profit was - 351.35 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 18.62 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The export profit was - 46.57 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.63 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week [87] 2.2.10 Inventory - This week, the domestic polypropylene inventory was 41.58 tons (+3.72%); the inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies increased by 14.92% compared to the previous week; the inventory of traders decreased by 0.11% compared to the previous week; the port inventory decreased by 0.47% compared to the previous week [89] 2.2.11 Inventory of Downstream Products - This week, the finished product inventory of large - scale plastic weaving enterprises was 839.78 tons, a decrease of 7.94% compared to the previous week. The raw material inventory of BOPP was 15.04 days, an increase of 7.66% compared to the previous week [93] 2.2.12 Warehouse Receipt - The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 17204 lots, a decrease of 32 lots compared to the previous week [97]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, both soybeans and soybean meal lack positive drivers, and prices are under pressure. However, planting and import costs support the lower prices. They are expected to continue to move within a range. In the medium - term, the listing of Brazilian soybeans will put pressure on the premium price, and the decline in import costs will drag down soybean meal prices. From May to July, soybean meal prices are expected to reach their annual lows. In the long - term, prices will rise slightly due to increased import costs and potential weather disturbances during the US soybean planting and growth stages, but the upside is still limited [9]. - For oils, after the previous decline caused by capital outflows and macro - sentiment, the panic in the market has been released. However, the previous positive news has been gradually digested, and the pre - Chinese New Year stocking has ended, so the upward momentum has weakened. It is expected that the oils will move in a high - level shock pattern. Among them, palm oil is supported by the expected inventory reduction in Malaysia in January, potential production cuts in Indonesia, and the spill - over effect of the US biodiesel policy; soybean oil is supported by strong US soybean exports and biodiesel consumption, the release of the US biodiesel policy, and the drought risk in Argentina, and is expected to perform relatively strongly among the three oils. Rapeseed oil will perform relatively weakly due to the continuous increase in rapeseed purchases and the start of processing Australian rapeseed, which will improve the supply - demand situation [80]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Period and Spot Market - As of February 6, the spot price in East China was 3020 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 40 yuan/ton. The M2605 contract closed at 2735 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis price was 05 + 280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Affected by the China - US trade agreement, the price of US soybeans rose above 1100 cents/bushel, while the Brazilian premium weakened significantly, with the price dropping to 110 cents/bushel. The soybean meal 05 contract fluctuated in the range of [2700, 2800]. Import costs supported the lower price, but the abundant domestic arrivals after April and the decline in Brazilian soybean import costs limited the upside [9][11]. 3.1.2 Supply - The monthly US soybean yield remained at 53 bushels/acre, but the US soybean stock - to - use ratio increased due to insufficient demand. Brazil has entered the harvesting stage, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. However, southern Brazil and Argentina are facing periodic high - temperature and drought conditions, which put pressure on soybean growth. Overall, the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America is strong, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose. In China, the arrivals from February to March decreased, and the inventories of soybeans and soybean meal entered the seasonal destocking stage. However, due to the high pre - existing soybean inventory and the improvement from the March soybean auction in China, the supply - demand tightening was limited, and the supply - demand situation remained in a tight balance [9]. 3.1.3 Demand - Currently, the demand for soybean meal remains high. The high inventory of pigs and poultry, combined with the good cost - effectiveness of soybean meal and a good proportion in the formula, support the demand for soybean meal. The soybean inventory of national oil mills continued to decline to 635.5 million tons, a decrease of 23.49 million tons from the previous week, a decrease of 3.56%, and an increase of 196.52 million tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 44.77%. The soybean meal inventory of national oil mills increased against the trend to 93.04 million tons, an increase of 3.18 million tons from the previous week, an increase of 3.54%, and an increase of 44.98 million tons compared to the same period last year, an increase of 93.59% [9]. 3.1.4 Cost - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents/bushel (calculated at a real exchange rate of 5.6). Calculated at an exchange rate of 7, a premium of 100 cents, and an oil - meal ratio of 3.0, the domestic cost of soybean meal from May to August is 2600 yuan/ton. Calculated at a premium of 180 cents from July to September, the import cost of Brazilian soybeans rises to 2730 yuan/ton. The planting cost of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 1000 cents/bushel. Calculated at a premium of 230 cents, the domestic import cost of US soybeans is 2970 yuan/ton. In terms of import crushing profit, the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has risen to around 100 yuan/ton, and the profit level is at a relatively good level in the same period of history [9]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Period and Spot Market - As of the week of February 6, the palm oil main 05 contract fell 214 yuan/ton to 9026 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou fell 180 yuan/ton to 9080 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The palm oil 05 basis rose 34 yuan/ton to 54 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The soybean oil main 05 contract fell 180 yuan/ton to 8102 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang fell 150 yuan/ton to 8620 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The soybean oil 05 basis rose 30 yuan/ton to 518 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The rapeseed oil main 05 contract fell 236 yuan/ton to 9144 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The third - grade rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang fell 410 yuan/ton to 9720 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The rapeseed oil 05 basis fell 174 yuan/ton to 576 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [80][82]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - MPOB will release the January report on the 10th. According to high - frequency data, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased and exports increased in January. The market estimates that the inventory in that month will drop to 2.89 - 2.91 million tons. February is still in the traditional production - reduction season in Southeast Asia, and it is expected that the production and inventory of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia will continue to decline. Currently, the international soybean - palm oil price spread has rebounded, and palm oil has a stronger cost - effectiveness than soybean oil, which is beneficial to palm oil exports. However, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in December was still as high as 3.05 million tons, with a large inventory pressure and a long way to go for destocking. After the pre - Chinese New Year stocking in China ended, the import demand declined, which suppressed the upside. In the short - term, it is expected that the Malaysian 05 contract will fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the performance around the 4150 support level. In China, China accelerated palm oil purchases before the Indonesian tax increase in March, and it is expected that the palm oil arrivals in February will increase significantly. Coupled with the general market demand in winter, the destocking speed of palm oil is limited. As of the week of January 30, the domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 701,400 tons [80]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - On the US soybean side, after the China - US leaders' call, Trump said that China plans to increase the US soybean purchase target for this year to 20 million tons, higher than the previous target of 12 million tons, which is expected to further improve US soybean exports. The US Treasury Department issued the proposed 45Z rule, which improved the unfavorable situation of the lack of a guiding subsidy framework in the US biodiesel industry and is beneficial to the biodiesel demand for US soybean oil. On the South American side, due to the previous drought, some consulting agencies slightly lowered the soybean production forecast for Argentina in the 2025/26 season, which is a positive factor. However, there is a risk that the US biodiesel policy may fall short of market expectations after its implementation in March. The soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record 178 - 180 million tons and will gradually enter the market after February to compete with US soybeans. It is expected that the rainfall in Argentina will improve in the next 1 - 2 weeks, which will limit the development of the drought. Therefore, the risks of the biodiesel policy, the selling pressure from Brazil, and the rainfall in Argentina will limit the further rebound of US soybeans. In the short - term, the US soybean 03 contract will continue to rebound. After breaking through the 1100 - cent mark, pay attention to the performance at the 1120 - 1130 resistance level. In China, although the current inventories of soybeans and soybean oil are still high, the inventories of foreign - funded oil mills are relatively low. Moreover, the market is worried about the seasonal decrease in soybean arrivals from January to March, which is beneficial to inventory destocking. As of the week of January 23, the soybean oil inventory decreased to 946,800 tons [80]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - Recently, there are market rumors that China has purchased 10 ships of about 650,000 tons of Canadian rapeseed after the China - Canada negotiations, which will arrive in China from March to May. Therefore, although Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that there is currently no plan to reach a free - trade agreement with China, there is still a high possibility that China will reduce the import tariff on Canadian rapeseed to 15% in March. If the reduction of the Canadian rapeseed tariff to 15% is implemented, the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed will improve significantly, and it will enter the mills for crushing and flow into the domestic market. In addition, the two ships of Australian rapeseed that arrived earlier have also started to enter the mills for crushing. Therefore, although the current spot supply - demand situation of rapeseed products in China is still tight, and the inventories of rapeseed and rapeseed oil are at a low level, with the crushing of Australian rapeseed, the arrival of Canadian rapeseed from March to May, and China's continued purchase of Russian rapeseed oil, it is expected that the tight supply - demand situation of rapeseed products in China will gradually ease from February, putting pressure on rapeseed oil prices. As of the week of January 30, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 246,000 tons, with limited room for further destocking [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to be moderately bullish in a volatile market [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Although there is still upward pressure on glass prices, the futures price has dropped to a relatively low level. With continuous industry rumors and time before the expiration of the main contract, there is a possibility of change. Technically, the bull - bear forces are balanced. Therefore, it is expected that the glass market will operate with a moderately bullish trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Strategy - **Main Logic**: Last week, glass futures first rose and then fell. The shutdown of two production lines in Jiangsu Zhongbo and some rumors pushed up the market, but the fundamental logic suppressed the price, and the market returned to the original volatile range. The basis in the Shahe area shows an opportunity for spot - futures arbitrage. The 5 - 9 spread has a limited reverse arbitrage space. Supply decreased with the shutdown of two production lines last week, and the daily melting volume dropped below 150,000 tons. Inventory remained stable in Hubei, and the manufacturer's inventory in Shahe was at a low level due to the low - price strategy. Demand was supported by some mirror export orders in some regions, but most manufacturers in East China have gradually stopped work and gone on holiday. The soda ash market has seen many overhauls recently, and the absolute price of the futures is relatively low, so it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Operation Strategy**: Be moderately bullish in a volatile market [3][4]. 3.2 Market Review - **Futures Price**: The glass 05 contract closed at 1,072 yuan/ton last Friday, with a weekly increase of 16 yuan/ton [12]. - **Spot Price**: As of February 6, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,020 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1,110 yuan/ton in Central China (unchanged), and 1,180 yuan/ton in East China (unchanged) [12]. - **Pure - Glass Price Difference**: As of February 6, the soda ash futures price was 1,190 yuan/ton, and the glass futures price was 1,072 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 118 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [13]. - **Basis and Contract Spread**: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 05 contract was 48 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton; the 05 - 09 spread was - 99 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton [17]. 3.3 Profit - **Natural Gas Process**: The cost was 1,565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was - 385 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton [21]. - **Coal - Gas Process**: The cost was 1,167 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was - 147 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [21]. - **Petroleum Coke Process**: The cost was 1,106 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 4 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton [21]. 3.4 Supply - The daily melting volume of glass last Friday was 148,935 tons/day, a decrease of 1,200 tons/day. Currently, there are 211 production lines in operation [23]. - Multiple production lines have undergone changes such as cold repair,复产, new ignition, and product conversion [24]. 3.5 Inventory - As of February 6, the inventory of 80 sample glass manufacturers in China was 53.064 million weight boxes, an increase of 500,000 weight boxes. Inventory in different regions showed different trends [26]. 3.6 Deep - Processing - On February 5, the comprehensive production - sales rate of float glass was 89%, a decrease of 10%. On February 6, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 38.5%, a decrease of 2.7%. In mid - January, the number of available days of glass deep - processing orders was 9.3 days, an increase of 0.7 days [32]. 3.7 Demand - **Automobile**: In December, China's automobile production was 3.296 million vehicles, a decrease of 236,000 vehicles month - on - month and 70,000 vehicles year - on - year; sales were 3.272 million vehicles, a decrease of 157,000 vehicles month - on - month and 217,000 vehicles year - on - year. The retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 1.337 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 59.1% [38]. - **Real Estate**: In December, China's real estate completion area was 208.94 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18%; new construction area was 53.13 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; construction area was 38.24 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 47%; and the sales area of commercial housing was 94 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17%. From January 19 to January 25, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.43 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 28%. In December, the real estate development investment was 419.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 37% [45]. 3.8 Cost - Side Soda Ash - **Spot Price**: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,260 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1,235 yuan/ton in East China (unchanged), 1,225 yuan/ton in Central China (a decrease of 15 yuan/ton), and 1,375 yuan/ton in South China (a decrease of 50 yuan/ton) [47]. - **Futures Price**: Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The basis of the soda ash Central China 05 contract was 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [51][52]. - **Profit**: As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - soda method was 1,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was - 89 yuan/ton (unchanged); the cost of the joint - production method was 1,692 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was - 29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton [53][54]. - **Output**: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 774,300 tons, a decrease of 8,800 tons month - on - month, including 414,000 tons of heavy soda ash, a decrease of 7,100 tons month - on - month, and 360,300 tons of light soda ash, a decrease of 1,700 tons month - on - month. The loss volume was 155,800 tons, a decrease of 9,900 tons month - on - month. The number of exchange soda ash warehouse receipts at the end of last week was 3,527, an increase of 1,748 [63][64]. - **Inventory**: As of February 6, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.5811 million tons, an increase of 36,900 tons month - on - month [68]. - **Apparent Consumption**: Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 384,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,700 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 353,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. The production - sales rate of soda ash last week was 95.23%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.83%. The soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories in December was 27.2 days [71][72].

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 02 月 06 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： 观望 | | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡调整 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 反弹滚动空机会 | | ◆鸡蛋： | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides specific trading suggestions for various commodities in different sectors: - **Macro - Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; expecting treasury bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and buying on dips for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Suggesting to wait and see for copper, aluminum, and nickel; range trading for tin, gold, silver; expecting lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][10][12] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol; temporarily waiting and seeing for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to trade weakly in a range [1][19][21] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range, apples and jujubes to trade in a range [1][29][30] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Suggesting short - term short - selling on rebounds for live pigs, hedging post - holiday contracts at high prices for eggs, being cautious about chasing high prices for corn and waiting for rebounds to hedge; expecting soybean meal to trade in a short - term range; expecting edible oils to have a limited short - term correction [1][31][35][38] Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities from multiple aspects such as supply, demand, cost, and macro - factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies. It emphasizes the importance of considering factors like geopolitical situations, policy changes, and seasonal factors in commodity trading. Summary by Category Macro - Finance - **Stock Indices**: The market is resilient. With employment slowing down and service index rising in the US, and various geopolitical and policy factors, stock indices are expected to trade in a range in the short - term and be bullish in the long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: There is no obvious major negative factor in the bond market. After the early - year repair, the scope for further decline in bond yields is limited. Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is volatile in the short - term. Although prices have risen slightly, the sustainability of the price increase is limited due to factors such as weak downstream demand and approaching holidays. It is recommended for short - term trading [7][8] - **Rebar**: The futures price is slightly higher than the electric furnace off - peak electricity cost and lower than the flat - rate electricity cost. With a short - term policy vacuum and seasonal increase in inventory, it is expected to trade in a range [8] - **Glass**: Supply has increased slightly, and inventory is higher than in previous years. Although there are some positive factors in the real estate sector, demand is weak. It is recommended to buy on dips in the 1030 - 1050 range [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Macro factors have led to significant price fluctuations. Supply is tight, but demand is weak. There is a risk of price correction at high levels. It is recommended to wait and see [10] - **Aluminum**: Bauxite and alumina prices are under pressure. With the approach of the Spring Festival, demand is weakening. It is recommended to strengthen observation [12] - **Nickel**: Although the reduction of the Indonesian nickel ore quota has boosted prices, the current market has fully priced in this factor. The fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [13][14] - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and downstream consumption maintains rigid demand. It is expected to trade in a range. Attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand [14] - **Silver and Gold**: The nomination of the new Fed chairman has led to a price correction. However, due to concerns about the US economy and the trend of de - dollarization, the medium - term price center is expected to move up. They are expected to trade in a range [16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is affected by factors such as mine shutdowns, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to trade in a range [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, supply is high, and domestic demand is weak. Although there is support from exports, there are uncertainties. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices [19] - **Caustic Soda**: Demand is weak, and supply pressure is high. There is short - term delivery pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [21] - **Styrene**: Inventory reduction expectations support the price rebound, but the current valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [21] - **Rubber**: The supply is in a seasonal reduction phase, and the cost is supported. However, inventory is accumulating, and demand is limited. It is expected to trade in a range [23] - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, and demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is rising. The inventory level is relatively low. It is expected to trade in a range of 1730 - 1830 [25] - **Methanol**: Supply is decreasing, and demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is weakening. The market is affected by geopolitical and port arrival factors. It is expected to trade in a range [26][27] - **Polyolefins**: Supply pressure is increasing, demand is in the off - season, and there is inventory accumulation pressure. It is expected to trade weakly in a range. It is recommended to short on rebounds [27][28] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to decrease, and demand from downstream industries is weak. The cost is rising, and the downward space of the price is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [28] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global cotton production has decreased, and consumption has increased, leading to a decrease in inventory. After a continuous rise, the price is in a high - level range adjustment. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and optimistic in the long - term [29][30] - **Apples**: The overall market is stable and weak, with limited trading volume in some areas. The price varies by region [30] - **Jujubes**: The acquisition price in the Xinjiang region is in a certain range, and the market is trading in a range [30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: In the short - term, supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is not optimistic. In the long - term, the supply in the first half of the year is expected to increase, and the price in the second half of the year may be stronger due to capacity reduction. It is recommended to short on rebounds for off - season contracts and be cautious about long - term bullishness [31][32] - **Eggs**: The current egg price has rebounded, but the supply pressure will be postponed after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to hedge post - holiday contracts at high prices [33][34] - **Corn**: In the short - term, the market is balanced. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, which limits the price increase. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and wait for rebounds to hedge [35][36][37] - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, the M2603 contract is expected to trade in a range. The 05 contract should pay attention to the 2800 - 2850 pressure level. It is recommended to operate within the range [37] - **Edible Oils**: The short - term trend of the three major edible oils is high - level oscillation. It is recommended to buy on dips. Palm oil is affected by factors such as inventory reduction in Malaysia and Indonesian production cuts; soybean oil is supported by factors such as US soybean exports and biodiesel policies; rapeseed oil is affected by factors such as the import of Canadian rapeseed [38][40][41][43]