1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a sideways pattern [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; shorting on rebounds for glass [1][8][10] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Holding short positions moderately on rallies for copper; strengthening observation for aluminum; suggesting waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading for tin; expecting gold, silver and lithium carbonate to move in a sideways pattern [1][14][20][24] - **Energy Chemicals**: Bullish - biased sideways movement for PVC, caustic soda, styrene, polyolefin, and rubber; shorting on rallies for soda ash; range trading for urea and methanol [1][25][27][32] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish - biased sideways movement for cotton and cotton yarn; expecting apples and jujubes to move in a sideways pattern [1][38][39] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Rolling short positions at high levels for the 05 and 07 contracts of live pigs; shorting cautiously on weak rebounds of near - month contracts for eggs; hedging cautiously on weak rebounds of near - month contracts for corn; paying attention to the support performance at 2900 - 2950 for the 05 contract of soybean meal; bullish - biased sideways movement and rolling long strategy for oils and fats [1][43][45][47] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions and market outlooks for various futures products based on comprehensive analysis of macro - economic factors, geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost - profit conditions. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as the Middle East conflict on global markets, and suggests corresponding trading strategies according to the different characteristics of each product [1][5][15] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to move in a bullish - biased sideways pattern. The willingness of the US and Iran to end the Middle East conflict has led to a sharp rise in US stocks, and stock indices may be bullish - biased [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. After the end of the quarter, the proportion of bonds in asset allocation may gradually increase [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. The total inventory of coking coal has slightly increased, and the inventory transfer of coking coal and coke is smooth [8][9] - **Rebar**: Expected to move in a sideways pattern. The futures price is below the electric - furnace valley - electricity cost, and the demand is still recovering [10] - **Glass**: Expected to be weak. The hype of coal cost has weakened, and the demand in the peak season is not good [11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level sideways movement. Affected by macro - factors, there is a downward risk, but domestic inventory reduction and the consumption peak season will provide support [14][15] - **Aluminum**: High - level sideways movement. Supply concerns may boost the price, and attention should be paid to the development of the situation [17] - **Nickel**: Sideways movement. The support at the ore end is strong, but the lack of demand and macro - disturbances limit the upward drive [18][19] - **Tin**: Sideways movement. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in a state of rigid procurement [20] - **Silver and Gold**: Sideways movement. Affected by the Middle East situation and economic data, the medium - term price center has moved up [21][22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound sideways movement. Supply and demand are both increasing, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [24] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, there are opportunities for short - term rebound and long - term industrial upgrading [25] - **Caustic Soda**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by spring maintenance and downstream replenishment, exports may increase [27] - **Styrene**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by cost and with low inventory pressure, it is expected to maintain de - stocking [28] - **Polyolefin**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by cost and with marginal improvement in supply - demand [29][30] - **Rubber**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. In the short term, it is in a game between synthetic rubber support and inventory pressure [31] - **Urea**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supply is at a high level, and demand is supported by agricultural and compound fertilizer needs, with smooth de - stocking [32][33] - **Methanol**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. The supply - demand situation is relatively stable, and inventory has decreased [34] - **Soda Ash**: Shorting on rallies. Supply is in excess, and the price may continue to be under pressure [35][36] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Global cotton supply is increasing, but domestic consumption is strong, and the price of chemical fiber has a positive impact [38] - **Apples**: Sideways movement. The market is polarized, with good - quality goods being in high demand [39] - **Jujubes**: Sideways movement. The raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, and the enthusiasm of merchants to restock is not high [41] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: Bottom - building sideways movement. In the short term, the supply exceeds the demand, and in the long term, the price may rise after the supply tightens [43] - **Eggs**: Bearish - biased sideways movement. In the short term, the price increase is weak, and in the long term, it is in a state of bottom - building [45] - **Corn**: Range - bound sideways movement. The supply - demand situation is relatively balanced, and the near - month contract can be hedged on weak rebounds [47] - **Soybean Meal**: High - level sideways movement. The 05 contract should pay attention to the support at around 2900 [47] - **Oils and Fats**: Bullish - biased sideways movement. Supported by palm oil de - stocking and the B50 plan in Indonesia, but the supply will be relatively loose in the second quarter [53]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5][6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; shorting on rebounds for glass [1][8][10][11]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Holding short positions moderately on rallies for copper; strengthening observation for aluminum; suggesting observation for nickel; range trading for tin; trading sideways for gold, silver, and lithium carbonate [1][14][16][17][19][20][22][23]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Bullish and sideways for PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins; shorting on rallies for soda ash; buying on dips but not chasing highs for rubber; range trading for urea and methanol [1][25][27][28][30][31][33][34]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish and sideways for cotton and cotton yarn; trading sideways for apples and jujubes [1][37][38][40]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Rolling short positions at high levels for 05 and 07 contracts of live pigs; shorting cautiously on weak rebounds of near - month contracts for eggs; hedging cautiously on weak rebounds of near - month contracts for corn; paying attention to the support performance at 2900 - 2950 for the 05 contract of soybean meal; bullish and sideways with a rolling long strategy for oils and fats [1][42][43][44][46][47]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - factors. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical conflicts, economic data, and seasonal trends to analyze the price trends of different futures and gives corresponding investment strategies [1]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Although the market is under pressure due to geopolitical issues, it is bullish in the medium to long term, and investors are advised to buy on dips [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term yields may turn to low - level sideways trading after the end of the quarter - end scale - chasing demand. The pricing logic of ultra - long - term bonds may return to the fundamentals, and they are expected to trade sideways [6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The total inventory of coking coal is slightly accumulating, and the inventory transfer of coking coal and coke is smooth. They are expected to trade sideways in the short term, and short - term trading is recommended [8][9]. - **Rebar**: The futures price is below the electric furnace valley - electricity cost, and the demand is still recovering. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and range trading is recommended [10]. - **Glass**: The cost speculation sentiment has weakened, and the demand in the peak season is not good. The price is expected to be weak in April, and shorting on rebounds is recommended [11][12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by multiple factors such as inflation, a strong dollar, and high inventory, copper prices are under pressure, but domestic inventory reduction and the arrival of the consumption season will provide support. It is recommended to hold short positions moderately on rallies and pay attention to relevant factors [14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The price may be boosted by supply concerns, but the demand is also suppressed by high - price fluctuations. It is recommended to strengthen observation [16]. - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is tight, but the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to trade sideways, and observation is recommended [17][18]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is in rigid demand. It is expected to trade in a wide range, and range trading is recommended [19]. - **Silver and Gold**: The price rebounds due to geopolitical factors, and the medium - term price center moves up. They are expected to trade sideways, and observation and cautious trading are recommended [20][21][22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand are both increasing, and it is expected to trade in a range [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is expected to be bullish and sideways in the short term, and trading within the rising channel is recommended [25]. - **Caustic Soda**: The demand from alumina production provides support, and the export is expected to increase. It is expected to be bullish and sideways in the short term, and chasing highs should be cautious [27]. - **Styrene**: Supported by cost and with low inventory pressure, it is expected to be bullish and sideways, and buying on dips but not chasing highs is recommended [28]. - **Polyolefins**: Supported by cost and with marginal improvement in supply - demand, it is expected to be bullish and sideways [30]. - **Rubber**: There is a game between cost support and inventory pressure. It is expected to be bullish and sideways, and buying on dips but not chasing highs is recommended [31]. - **Urea**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand from agriculture and compound fertilizers is strong. It is expected to be bullish and sideways, and range trading is recommended [32][33]. - **Methanol**: The supply and demand are both at a high level, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be bullish and sideways, and range trading is recommended [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is expected to be high, and the inventory pressure is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies [34][35]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production is increasing, and the consumption is slightly decreasing. The domestic consumption is strong, and it is expected to be bullish and sideways [37]. - **Apples**: The market is in a polarized state, and the price is expected to trade sideways [38][39]. - **Jujubes**: The raw material acquisition is based on quality, and the price is expected to trade sideways [40]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the price is expected to bottom sideways. For 05 and 07 contracts, shorting at high levels is recommended; for 09, 11, and 01 contracts, hedging should be cautious [42][43]. - **Eggs**: The short - term price is weak, and shorting on weak rebounds of near - month contracts is recommended [43]. - **Corn**: The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and hedging on weak rebounds of near - month contracts is recommended [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The 05 contract is expected to trade at a high level, and attention should be paid to the support at 2900 - 2950 [46]. - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by factors such as palm oil inventory reduction and the B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia, they are expected to be bullish and sideways, and a rolling long strategy is recommended [47][48][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - US announced a peace - negotiation plan, market risk appetite slightly recovered, and Iran continued to close the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rebound in precious metal prices. The Fed's March interest - rate meeting kept rates unchanged, US employment slowed, and Powell said short - term Middle - East tensions pushed up inflation. The Middle - East situation caused a sharp rise in oil prices, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts became more hawkish. The spread of the war is still uncertain. US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence. Central - bank gold purchases and de - dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up. Platinum and palladium lease rates remain relatively high, with support at the bottom but short - term adjustment pressure [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - US announced a peace - negotiation plan, market risk appetite slightly recovered, and Iran continued to close the Strait of Hormuz, causing gold prices to rebound. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $4521 per ounce, up 0.7% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4700, and the lower support level is $4400 [6] - US announced a peace - negotiation plan, market risk appetite slightly recovered, and Iran continued to close the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rebound in silver prices. As of last Friday, the weekly gain was 2.9%, closing at $69.8 per ounce. The lower support level is $65, and the upper resistance level is $77 [9] 3.2 Weekly View - The reasons for the rebound of precious metal prices are the same as above. The Fed's March interest - rate meeting kept rates unchanged, US employment slowed, and Powell said short - term Middle - East tensions pushed up inflation. The Middle - East situation caused a sharp rise in oil prices, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts became more hawkish. The spread of the war is still uncertain. US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence. Central - bank gold purchases and de - dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up. Platinum and palladium lease rates remain relatively high, with support at the bottom but short - term adjustment pressure. The inventory and position data are as follows: Comex gold inventory decreased by 10,598.43 kg to 986,401.72 kg, and SHFE gold inventory decreased by 201 kg to 106,644 kg. Comex silver inventory decreased by 136,789.80 kg to 10,211,197.05 kg, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 9,304 kg to 371,799 kg. This week, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 161,335 contracts, a decrease of 2,016 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 22,811 contracts, an increase of 1,775 contracts from last week. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and be cautious in trading [11][13] 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data charts of the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rate (10 - year TIPS yield), inflation expectation (10Y), yield spread (10Y - 2Y), US Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), Fed balance - sheet size and its weekly change, gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trend [15][17][19] 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The preliminary value of the US SPGI manufacturing PMI in March was 52.4, the expected value was 51.3, and the previous value was 51.6. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending March 21 was 210,000, the expected value was 210,000, and the previous value was 205,000 [25] 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - US President Trump said on Thursday that at the request of the Iranian government, he would suspend attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 10 days and that negotiations with Tehran were progressing "very smoothly." However, an Iranian senior official said the US proposal to end the conflict was "unilateral and unfair," lacking the minimum requirements for success and only serving the interests of the US and Israel. Diplomatic efforts have not stopped. - European Central Bank President Lagarde said that even if the current energy - shock - induced inflation only briefly exceeds the ECB's inflation target, moderate policy tightening may be needed [26] 3.6 Inventory - Comex gold inventory decreased by 10,598.43 kg to 986,401.72 kg, and SHFE gold inventory decreased by 201 kg to 106,644 kg. Comex silver inventory decreased by 136,789.80 kg to 10,211,197.05 kg, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 9,304 kg to 371,799 kg [13][28] 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of March 24, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 161,335 contracts, a decrease of 2,016 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 22,811 contracts, an increase of 1,775 contracts from last week [13][32] 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday (April 1), at 20:15, the change in US ADP employment in March; at 22:00, the US ISM manufacturing PMI in March. - On Friday (April 3), at 20:30, the seasonally - adjusted change in US non - farm payrolls in March and the US unemployment rate in March [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Pig**: The supply pressure remains high, and the futures price faces resistance in rebounding. In the short - term, the pig price will continue to fluctuate at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price will face resistance in the first half of the year, and there may be a low - level recovery in the second half, but the price increase depends on the extent of capacity reduction [4][51]. - **Egg**: The demand for stocking is slowing down, and the futures price faces resistance in rebounding. In the short - term, the spot price is strong, but the increase is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure is difficult to relieve quickly, and the market should not be overly optimistic [5][80]. - **Corn**: The grain supply is gradually becoming more abundant, and the futures price is under pressure at high levels. In the short - term, the price is under pressure to fluctuate at high levels. In the medium - to - long - term, the price increase is limited, and there is a risk of a phased correction [6][112]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Period and Spot Ends - As of March 27, the national spot price was 9.38 yuan/kg, down 0.49 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 9.48 yuan/kg, down 0.52 yuan/kg from last week; the main pig futures contract 2605 closed at 9965 yuan/ton, down 255 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 05 contract was - 485 yuan/ton, down 265 yuan/ton from last week. The national pig price continued to decline this week, and the futures price followed the spot price down, with a late - week rebound under the influence of position limits. The spot price stopped falling and rebounded over the weekend [4][51]. 3.1.2 Supply End - In December 2025, the number of fertile sows was 39.61 million, still 3.11 million away from the normal reserve target of 36.5 million. With the increase in fattening losses and the decline in piglet profits, and the policy requirements, the industry capacity reduction will accelerate. The supply pressure in the first half of 2026 is still high, and the supply will decrease marginally after July. The proportion of large - pig sales increased, and the average weight of pig sales increased slightly and was at a high level in the same period. The planned sales volume of key provincial enterprises in March increased month - on - month, and the sales pressure in April is still high [4][51]. 3.1.3 Demand End - The weekly slaughter rate and slaughter volume continued to rise. The low price increased the slaughter volume, but the terminal fresh - sales demand was weak, the fresh - sales rate of slaughterhouses decreased, and the frozen - product storage ratio increased. Consumption is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking and the frozen - product storage of slaughterhouses [4][51]. 3.1.4 Cost End - The prices of piglets and binary fertile sows fell significantly, the losses of self - breeding and self - fattening and purchasing piglets for fattening increased, and the cost of self - breeding and self - fattening 5 - month - old fattening pigs increased. The national pig - grain ratio fell below 5:1, and policy measures such as state reserve purchases may be taken, but the current supply is still relatively loose [4][51]. 3.1.5 Weekly Summary - Although the short - term supply reduction by farmers provides some support, the sales pressure in April is still high, and the pig price is under pressure. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price will face resistance in the first half of the year and may recover in the second half, but the price increase depends on the capacity reduction [4][51]. 3.1.6 Strategy Suggestion - For the 05 and 07 contracts, short at high levels; for the 09, 11, and 01 contracts, be cautious about bottom - fishing, and breeding enterprises can hedge at profitable levels [4][51]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Period and Spot Ends - As of March 27, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.39 yuan/jin, up 0.12 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.38 yuan/jin, up 0.14 yuan/jin from last Friday; the main egg futures contract 2605 closed at 3502 yuan/500 kg, up 93 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was - 322 yuan/500 kg, up 17 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The national egg price continued to rise slightly, and the futures price rebounded [5][80]. 3.2.2 Supply End - The number of laying hens in production is still at a high level in the same period. The number of newly - opened laying hens is stable. The number of old - hen sales increased significantly this week, but the proportion of hens to be culled is low, and the capacity reduction is slow. The inventory pressure is low in the short - term, but the supply pressure is difficult to relieve quickly in the medium - to - long - term [5][80]. 3.2.3 Demand End - The egg demand continued to recover slightly this week. The sales volume in the sales areas increased slightly, and the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking provided phased support. However, the low - price pork has a substitution effect on egg demand, and the terminal household consumption is still in the off - season [5][80]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary - The supply pressure is difficult to relieve quickly, and the demand recovery is slow. The spot price is strong in the short - term, but the increase is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve fundamentally [5][80]. 3.2.5 Strategy Suggestion - In the short - term, be cautious about chasing high prices, and pay attention to the pressure at 3550 - 3600 for the 05 contract. In the medium - to - long - term, wait for the clear inflection point [5][80]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Period and Spot Ends - As of March 27, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2380 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from last Friday; the main corn futures contract 2605 closed at 2369 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was 11 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from last Friday. The national corn price was adjusted narrowly at a high level, and the futures price continued to fluctuate weakly [6][112]. 3.3.2 Supply End - The supply shortage has been further alleviated, and the supply is becoming more abundant. The grain - selling progress in Northeast and North China has continued to improve, and the grain rights have gradually transferred to traders. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises and northern ports has increased, and the supply pressure has been significantly relieved [6][112]. 3.3.3 Demand End - The replenishment rhythm of deep - processing enterprises has slowed down, and feed procurement has remained cautious. The deep - processing capacity utilization rate and consumption have increased, but the inventory is still at a low level in the same period. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the procurement intensity has slowed down, with wheat substitution [6][112]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary - The corn market's trading rhythm has slowed down, the supply has become more abundant, and the demand has limited growth. In the short - term, the price is under pressure at high levels, and in the medium - to - long - term, there is a risk of a phased correction [6][112]. 3.3.5 Strategy Suggestion - In the short - term, operate cautiously in the range of [2340 - 2390]. In the medium - to - long - term, short on rebounds [6][112].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals market is affected by macro factors and geopolitical uncertainties. The overall trend of non - ferrous metals continues to be adjusted. Different metal varieties have different trends and influencing factors, and investors need to pay attention to various factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Viewpoint Summaries - **Copper**: Affected by macro factors, copper prices first declined and then rose this week. The geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, which suppresses copper prices. However, the tight supply at the mine end, the peak maintenance season of smelters, and the good downstream demand support copper prices. It is recommended to conduct range trading between 91,500 - 98,500 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of domestic bauxite is stable, and the export restrictions on Guinea bauxite are relatively mild. The operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum has increased. The downstream demand is gradually picking up, but it is also restricted by the high - volatility of aluminum prices. The supply concerns caused by the attack on two Middle - Eastern aluminum plants over the weekend are expected to boost aluminum prices. It is recommended to make long - biased allocations [3]. - **Zinc**: Last week, zinc prices fluctuated downward. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has an impact on the market. The supply of zinc ore is tight, and the smelting plants' maintenance plans increase in the second quarter. The demand recovery is slow. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Lead**: Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16,555 yuan/ton, showing a fluctuating trend. The lead inventory continues to decline, and the downstream demand has recovered slightly. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the lead price will fluctuate sharply in the short term. It is recommended to hold short positions moderately when the price is high [3]. - **Nickel**: Last week, Shanghai nickel fluctuated and rose. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is tight, and the cost of nickel price is strongly supported. However, the supply pressure of refined nickel is high, and the demand is average. The price of nickel iron is expected to be strong, and the price of stainless steel and nickel sulfate is also expected to be strong. It is recommended to go long when the price is low [4]. - **Tin**: The price of tin continued to fluctuate. The production of refined tin decreased in February, and the import of tin concentrate increased. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and the inventory has decreased. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to conduct range trading [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly output of industrial silicon increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The production of polysilicon decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range - bound trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions moderately when the price is low or wait and see [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals of polysilicon are poor, and the price has fallen below the cost. It is recommended to allocate more polysilicon moderately and wait for policy signals [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate is affected by factors such as mine shutdowns and export bans. The demand is strong, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.2 Macro - **This Week's Macro Data**: The preliminary value of the eurozone's comprehensive PMI in March was 50.5, and the US comprehensive PMI in March was 51.4. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to February increased by 15.2% year - on - year. Iran has effectively controlled the Strait of Hormuz and rejected the US cease - fire proposal [13][15][16]. - **Next Week's Macro Data Calendar**: A series of economic data such as the eurozone's consumer confidence index, CPI, and the US employment data will be released [19]. 3.3 Each Metal Variety Details - **Copper**: This week, the copper price first declined and then rose. The LME copper spot/three - month spread, Shanghai copper's inter - period spread, and COMEX institutional positions are presented. The global visible copper inventory and Shanghai copper's position and position - to - warrant ratio are also tracked [23][28][31]. - **Aluminum**: This week, the aluminum price showed a wide - range shock. The inventory of 6063 aluminum rods, port inventory of alumina and bauxite, and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum are tracked. The cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, the forward curve of Shanghai aluminum, and the spot premium of A00 aluminum ingots are also analyzed [36][40][43]. - **Zinc**: This week, the zinc price stabilized and rebounded. The inventory of zinc in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the global visible inventory of zinc are tracked. The premium of 0 zinc ingots, the forward curve of zinc, and the prices of zinc - related products are also presented [47][49][54]. - **Lead**: This week, the lead price fluctuated downward. The inventory of lead in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the global lead inventory are tracked. The forward curve of lead, the production of primary lead, and the spot premium of lead are also analyzed [61][63][70]. - **Nickel**: This week, the nickel price continued to fluctuate and adjust. The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the global LME nickel inventory are tracked. The prices of high - nickel iron and Jinchuan nickel plates, the inventory of stainless steel, and the premium of Russian nickel are also presented [74][78][84]. - **Tin**: This week, the tin price rebounded from a low level and showed a wide - range shock. The futures closing prices of tin, the premium of Shanghai tin, the smelting profit, and the inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME are tracked [91][93][99]. - **Other Metals (Gold, Silver, etc.)**: The daily - line trend charts of gold, silver, platinum, palladium, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, alumina, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy are presented, showing different trends such as low - level rebound, wide - range shock, and downward trend [105][111][118].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Shanghai copper price slightly retraced. As of March 27, it closed at 95,930 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.26%. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the strengthening of the US dollar index have suppressed copper prices. However, the significant reduction of domestic social inventories and the arrival of the peak copper consumption season will support copper prices [5]. - Affected by macro - factors, copper prices will first decline and then rise this week. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, inflation, and the strengthening of the US dollar will continue to suppress copper prices. Fundamentally, the tight supply situation at the mine end continues, and some enterprises have signaled production cuts. Downstream demand is relatively active, and domestic inventories are significantly decreasing. Copper prices may maintain a volatile adjustment [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Market Review**: Last week, the Shanghai copper price slightly retraced. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the strengthening of the US dollar index have suppressed copper prices. The shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee for copper concentrates remains at a historical low. Some enterprises have signaled production cuts, and domestic smelting enterprises will enter the peak maintenance period in the second quarter. The decline in copper prices has led to an increase in downstream orders and开工, and domestic copper inventories continue to decline [5]. - **Supply - side**: The shortage of copper concentrates persists. As of March 27, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 458,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.55%. The spot TC of copper concentrates has reached a historical low. The supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates is relatively abundant, and the domestic blister copper processing fee is at a multi - year high [8][29]. - **Demand - side**: The decline in copper prices has led to an increase in the开工 rate of refined copper rods, and the copper foil industry has maintained a high level of prosperity. Last week (March 20 - March 26), the average weekly starting rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 83.17%, a week - on - week increase of 1.66 percentage points. The starting rates of copper foil, copper strip, and copper rod in February were 88.56%, 41.98%, and 22.78% respectively [8][32]. - **Inventory**: Domestic copper inventories continue to decline, while LME inventories continue to accumulate. As of March 27, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 35.91 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.65%. As of March 26, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of the country was 427,400 tons, a decrease of 18.29% compared to March 19. As of March 27, the LME copper inventory was 360,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.23%. The COMEX copper inventory was 588,900 short tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.04% [9][35]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Affected by macro - factors, copper prices will first decline and then rise this week. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, inflation, and the strengthening of the US dollar will continue to suppress copper prices. Fundamentally, the tight supply situation at the mine end continues, and some enterprises have signaled production cuts. Downstream demand is relatively active, and domestic inventories are significantly decreasing. Copper prices may maintain a volatile adjustment [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market and Positioning - **Premium and Discount**: The significant decline in social inventories has led to a stable premium and discount of Shanghai copper in the game. The LME copper inventory continues to accumulate, the LME 0 - 3 discount continues to widen, and the New York - London copper price difference remains negative [16]. - **Domestic and Overseas Positions**: As of March 27, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper have both decreased. As of March 20, the net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions increased by 59.95% week - on - week. As of March 24, the net long positions of COMEX copper asset management institutions decreased by 24.21% week - on - week [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Supply - side**: The shortage of copper concentrates persists. As of March 27, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 458,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.55%. The spot TC of copper concentrates has reached a historical low. The supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates is relatively abundant, and the domestic blister copper processing fee is at a multi - year high. The electrolytic copper production in February was 1.1424 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% and a year - on - year increase of 7.96%. It is expected that the electrolytic copper production in March will further increase [29]. - **Downstream Starting Rate**: The starting rates of copper foil, copper strip, and copper rod in February were 88.56%, 41.98%, and 22.78% respectively. The starting rate of copper foil is much higher than the same period in previous years. Last week (March 20 - March 26), the average weekly starting rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 83.17%, a week - on - week increase of 1.66 percentage points [32]. - **Inventory**: Domestic copper inventories continue to decline, while LME inventories continue to accumulate. As of March 27, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 35.91 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12.65%. As of March 26, the copper inventory in the mainstream regions of the country was 427,400 tons, a decrease of 18.29% compared to March 19. As of March 27, the LME copper inventory was 360,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.23%. The COMEX copper inventory was 588,900 short tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.04% [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation shows that the supply side has issues like the non - resumption of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine, the suspension of lithium ore exports in Zimbabwe, and uncertainties in Yichun's mining licenses. The cost reduction space of Australian mines is limited. In 2026, January - February lithium concentrate imports had different trends, and February's lithium carbonate imports increased year - on - year. The demand side is in a situation of strong supply and demand, with March's overall production scheduling increasing month - on - month. The inventory is in a state of accumulation this week. It is expected that the subsequent South American lithium salt imports will supplement the supply. With the expected resumption of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine and the expected increase in lithium salt imports, along with continuous supply disturbances, the lithium carbonate price is expected to continue to fluctuate [4][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - related - **Production**: Last week, the weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 245 tons to 24,610 tons, and the February production decreased by 17.6% month - on - month. In 2026, from January to February, the total domestic lithium spodumene imports were about 1.39 million tons. In February, China imported 26,427 tons of lithium carbonate, a 2% month - on - month decrease and a 114% year - on - year increase [4] - **Cost**: The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate was flat week - on - week, and the weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate smelting rose to about 57%. The operating rate of lithium spodumene remained high and stable, with a large elasticity of overall capacity utilization [4] 3.2 Demand - related - **Battery production and sales**: In February, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 141.6 GWh, a 15.7% month - on - month decrease and a 41.3% year - on - year increase. The total export was 23.9 GWh, a 0.9% month - on - month decrease and a 13.2% year - on - year increase. The sales volume was 113.2 GWh, a 23.9% month - on - month decrease and a 25.7% year - on - year increase. The new energy vehicle purchase tax policy is expected to support the sales growth of the new energy vehicle market in China [5] 3.3 Inventory - related - This week, the lithium carbonate inventory showed an accumulation state. The factory inventory increased by 460 tons, the market inventory increased by 4,294 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 4,207 tons [5] 3.4 Strategy Suggestion - Considering the supply side, with the non - resumption of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine, the risk of mining licenses in Yichun, and the decrease in February's lithium concentrate imports and lithium carbonate imports month - on - month, it is expected that South American lithium salt imports will supplement the supply. On the demand side, the industry is in a situation of strong supply and demand, with a high expectation of the resumption of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine and a large expected increase in lithium salt imports. With continuous supply disturbances and cost increases, and the expectation of inventory decline, attention should be paid to the progress of Zimbabwe's export ban and the disturbances at the Yichun mining end. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will continue to fluctuate [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: With supply-demand being loose and costs rising, the price center of soybean meal moves upward. Despite a slowdown in Brazilian shipments and cost increases due to rising crude oil prices, recent acceleration in shipments has put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to Brazilian shipments and auctions [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, oil prices are oscillating at a high level. Although there is a strong expectation of inventory reduction for Malaysian palm oil in March and support from crude oil, the impact of US biodiesel policies and the expected increase in the planting area of new US soybeans is neutral to bearish. The supply of global and domestic oils and fats will be seasonally looser in the second quarter, limiting the upside space. It is expected that oil prices will oscillate at a high level in the short term [73]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Market Performance - As of March 19, the spot price in East China was 3,160 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 130 yuan/ton; the M2605 contract closed at 2,937 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 92 yuan/ton; the basis price was 05+230 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 40 yuan/ton. Domestic spot supply-demand has become looser, and the basis has weakened [6][8]. 3.1.2 Supply - In the 2025/26 season, global soybean production reached 427 million tons, with Brazil producing 180 million tons and Argentina 48 million tons. The USDA's February outlook forum estimated that the US soybean planting area in the 2026/27 season will be 85 million acres, an increase of 3.8 million acres year-on-year. China's soybean imports in the 2025/26 season are estimated to be 112 million tons. Due to slow Brazilian shipments and seasonal destocking in China, the destocking of domestic soybeans and soybean meal from March to April is expected to continue [6]. 3.1.3 Demand - In the 2025/26 season, global soybean demand reached 424 million tons, an increase of 11 million tons year-on-year. In China, the high demand for soybeans is supported by the high inventory of pigs and poultry. However, current losses in pig farming may lead to a reduction in production capacity, and soybean meal demand in the fourth quarter may be lower than expected. As of March 20, the national soybean inventory was 5.1157 million tons, a decrease of 370,400 tons from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory was 670,500 tons, an increase of 43,200 tons from the previous week [6]. 3.1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 2026/27 season is 1,218 cents per bushel. If crude oil prices continue to rise, planting costs are expected to increase. Based on the current US soybean price of 1,150 cents, a premium of 150 cents, and an oil-to-meal ratio of 2.9, the theoretical price of soybean meal is 2,980 yuan/ton. The import crushing profit is improving, with the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans for April - May shipments at around 100 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Oils and Fats 3.2.1 Market Performance - As of the week of March 27, the palm oil main 05 contract rose 50 yuan/ton to 9,768 yuan/ton; the soybean oil main 05 contract rose 60 yuan/ton to 8,688 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil main 05 contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 9,877 yuan/ton. The spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,650 yuan/ton; the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang increased by 130 yuan/ton to 8,940 yuan/ton; the spot price of Grade 3 rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton [73][75]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - SPPOMA reported that the palm oil production in Malaysia from March 1 - 25 decreased by 11.21% month-on-month, while MPOA reported a 0.92% increase from March 1 - 20. Exports improved significantly, with a 38.4 - 50.42% increase from March 1 - 25. However, Indian refiners have suspended vegetable oil imports recently, and the Ramadan has ended, with the palm oil production season approaching in April. In China, the import profit of palm oil has deteriorated, and the estimated arrival of palm oil in April is 60,000 tons, a significant decrease from the monthly average of 200,000 tons in January - February. As of the week of March 20, the domestic palm oil inventory decreased to 808,200 tons [73]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - Trump's visit to China in May is expected to boost China's purchase of US soybeans. However, the EPA's biodiesel blending volume for 2026 - 27 did not exceed market expectations, which is negative for the demand of US soybean oil for biodiesel. The market is also concerned about the crop planting intention report at the end of March, with a high probability of an increase in the US soybean planting area in the 2026/27 season. In South America, the USDA's March report maintained the Brazilian soybean production at 180 million tons and slightly reduced the Argentine soybean production to 48 million tons. In China, the seasonal decline in soybean arrivals in the first quarter is beneficial for the destocking of soybean oil. As of the week of March 20, the domestic soybean oil inventory slightly decreased to 860,700 tons. However, after the consultation between China and Brazil on soybean quarantine issues, the number of Brazilian soybean shipments to China has gradually increased, and the destocking of soybean oil inventory will be limited in April - May [73]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The war in the Middle East has pushed up international crude oil prices and shipping costs, increasing the cost of imported rapeseed. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has hindered the transportation of Dubai rapeseed oil to China, and the customs clearance time for Russian crude rapeseed oil has been extended, resulting in a tight supply of domestic rapeseed oil. However, China's comprehensive import tax on Canadian rapeseed has been reduced to 15%, and the import profit has turned positive. It is expected that 20 ships of imported rapeseed will arrive in China from April - June, leading to a looser supply of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in the second quarter. As of the week of March 20, the coastal rapeseed inventory was 128,000 tons, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 281,000 tons [73].

2026-3-30 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 01 投资策略：反弹空 玻璃：成本情绪减弱 关注反弹做空 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 反弹空 p 风险提示 1、宏观情绪扰动（上行风险） 2、高位库存（下行风险） 02 行情回顾：期货下跌 900 950 1,000 1,050 1,100 1,150 1,200 1,250 1,300 12-15 12-2 12-29 01-05 01-12 01-19 01-26 02-02 02-09 02-16 02-23 03-02 03-09 03-16 03-23 p 主要逻辑 行情回顾：3月份玻璃期货先涨后跌，周线报收上影小阴线。虽然美伊冲突仍在持续，但煤炭成本炒作情绪已经减弱，叠 加旺季需求成色不佳，价格冲高后弱势运行。基差方面，沙河安全-124元/吨，湖北明弘48元/吨，由负转正，基差回升，考验 期现商出货能力。月间方面，5-9价差-99元/吨，在接近22年的历史低位水平后出现回调，原因在于资金开始向09合约移仓， 但近远月矛盾仍存，故59正反套 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The weekly operating load of urea decreased slightly, and the off - season reserves were gradually put into the market, resulting in a sufficient supply. It is the traditional peak demand season for urea, and both industrial and agricultural demands still exist. With fertilizer procurement for agricultural preparation and use in various regions, and the high - level operation of compound fertilizer production, the demand for urea is supported. Therefore, the price is expected to remain stable [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Changes - Urea's futures price first declined and then rose, while the spot price remained largely stable with minor fluctuations. On March 27, the closing price of the urea 2605 contract was 1877 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 1.96% increase. The highest price during the period was 1903 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 1833 yuan/ton. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1853 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 0.16% increase [2][3] - The main - contract basis of urea weakened. On March 27, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 36 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 46) - (- 25) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of urea also weakened. On March 27, the 5 - 9 spread was - 51 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 64) - (- 51) yuan/ton [2][6] Fundamental Changes Supply - The urea operating load rate was 91.43%, a decrease of 0.78 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 79.08%, an increase of 1.16 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average urea output was 21.08 tons [2][8] - Some devices in Heilongjiang, Shandong, and Henan were under maintenance or reduced production, while those in Hubei, Sichuan, and Ningxia were restored or increased production. Next week, some devices in Shandong and Heilongjiang will gradually resume or increase production, and there are no plans for device reduction or maintenance [8] Cost - The anthracite market price was adjusted strongly. As of March 26, the tax - included price of washed small anthracite blocks with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 910 - 950 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 25 yuan/ton from the previous week. The tax - included price of washed anthracite blocks with S1 - 1.5 in Yangquan, Shanxi was 810 - 870 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 30 yuan/ton from the previous week [2][11] Profit - The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was 4.93%, and that of gas - based urea was - 3.44% [11] Demand - The average advance sales of major urea producers was 6.2 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 100.7%. As the temperature warms up, the demand for wheat green - turning fertilizer is gradually released. In terms of industrial demand, the production - capacity operation rate of compound fertilizers and the operating load rate of melamine have increased, and the overall production and sales are relatively stable [13][14] - Most winter wheat in North China, northern Huanghuai, the eastern part of Northwest China, and most of Xinjiang is in the green - turning to standing stage; in southern Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan, and Guanzhong, Shaanxi, it is in the jointing to booting stage; in most of Southwest China, it is in the booting to heading and flowering stage; and in parts of southern Sichuan and eastern Yunnan, it has entered the milk - ripening stage. The growth period of most winter wheat is close to the normal level, or 3 - 6 days earlier, and more than 7 days earlier in some areas [16] - The production - capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 51.24%, an increase of 1.27 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 69.01 tons, a decrease of 4.37 percentage points from the previous week. The high - level operation of compound fertilizer production supports the current urea price. The market continues to sell, mainly fulfilling advance sales. Dealers actively pick up goods, and the supply gradually reaches the grass - roots outlets. It is expected that the production - capacity operation rate of compound fertilizers may remain stable next week [16] - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 70.23%, an increase of 7.32 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output was 3,943 tons, and the melamine price continued to rise significantly. Some new short - stop maintenance occurred in Sichuan Chengdu Yulong and Henan Junhua, while Xinjiang Jinxiang Sairui Phase II, Shaanxi Longhua, and Hebei Xinji Jiuyuan Phase III gradually resumed production. It is expected that the operating load rate of the melamine industry will fluctuate narrowly between 60% and 70% next week [19] - The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores decreased, and the demand support in the panel market weakened [20] Inventory - The urea inventory of enterprises was 57.5 tons, a decrease of 7.6 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 23 tons compared with the same period last year. The urea port inventory was 23.9 tons, the same as the previous week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 8,707, totaling 174,140 tons, an increase of 3,046 receipts or 60,920 tons compared with the same period last year [2][23] Key Points to Watch - The operating situation of compound fertilizers, the reduction and maintenance of urea devices, export policies, and coal - price fluctuations [2]