1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Sell Call" investment strategy for the glass industry [3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, glass futures rose significantly, with the weekly line closing as a medium阳线. The energy - chemical sector was active, and the market speculated on the rising costs of three production fuels: natural gas, coal, and petroleum coke. The basis in the Shahe and Hubei regions was at a historically low level, and some low - priced goods still had selling hedging opportunities. The daily melting volume decreased slightly, and the national inventory decreased slightly but remained higher than in previous years. The downstream started to pick up goods, and the glass production and sales were good. The cost and downstream consumption of soda ash had no obvious changes. The war between the US and Iran and downstream开工 jointly pushed up prices, but the former had little indirect impact on glass production costs, and the latter was mainly for rigid - demand procurement with insufficient terminal orders. Technically, the position decreased while the price rose, and the short - side power collapsed. It is expected that the market will fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling out - of - the - money call options under high volatility [3] 3. Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - **Main Logic**: The glass futures market was affected by energy - chemical factors, with cost increases and changes in basis, supply, inventory, and demand. The war and downstream开工 influenced prices, and technically, the market showed signs of high - level fluctuations. It is recommended to pay attention to selling out - of - the - money call options [3] - **Operation Strategy**: Sell call options [4] 02 Market Review: Spot Price Increase - **Spot Price**: As of March 13, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,070 yuan/ton (+20) in North China, 1,100 yuan/ton (+10) in Central China, and 1,250 yuan/ton (+20) in East China. The futures price of the glass 05 contract closed at 1,135 yuan/ton last Friday, up 48 yuan from the previous week [10][11] 03 Market Review: Negative Basis Expansion - **Soda Ash - Glass Spread**: As of March 13, the futures price of soda ash was 1,277 yuan, and the futures price of glass was 1,135 yuan, with a spread of 142 yuan/ton (-13) - **Basis**: The basis of the glass 05 contract was - 55 yuan/ton (-28) last Friday - **Contract Spread**: The 05 - 09 spread was - 113 yuan/ton (-6) last Friday [12][16] 04 Profit: Spot Price Increase, Gross Margin Improvement - **Natural Gas Process**: The cost was 1,574 yuan/ton (+6), and the gross margin was - 324 yuan/ton (+14) - **Coal - Gas Process**: The cost was 1,173 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross margin was - 103 yuan/ton (+21) - **Petroleum Coke Process**: The cost was 1,099 yuan/ton (+6), and the gross margin was 1 yuan/ton (+4) - **Fuel Prices**: On March 13, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 4.31 yuan/m³, the CIF price of US 3% sulfur shot coke was 175 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin steam coal was 592 yuan/ton [20] 05 Supply: Slight Decrease - The daily melting volume of glass was 147,785 tons/day (-550) last Friday, with 208 production lines in operation. There were changes in production lines, including cold - repairs, restarts, new ignitions, and product conversions [22][24] 06 Inventory: Turning to Decrease - As of March 13, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 7,584.9 ten thousand weight boxes (-378.8). The inventory in North China was 1,268 ten thousand weight boxes (-130.6), in Central China was 947 ten thousand weight boxes (-65), in East China was 1,408.1 ten thousand weight boxes (-38), in South China was 1,056.2 ten thousand weight boxes (-0.4), in Southwest China was 1,376 ten thousand weight boxes (-19), the Shahe factory inventory was 377 ten thousand weight boxes (-97), and the Hubei factory inventory was 684 ten thousand weight boxes (-21) [26] 07 Deep - Processing: Downstream Start - up - **Production and Sales Rate**: On March 12, the comprehensive production and sales rate of float glass was 125% (+30%) - **LOW - E Glass**: On March 13, the start - up rate of LOW - E glass was 41.6% (+7.9%) - **Order Available Days**: At the beginning of February, the order days of glass deep - processing were 6.35 days (-2.95) [30] 08 Demand: Decrease in Sales During the Spring Festival - **Automobile**: In February, China's automobile production was 1.672 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 778,000 vehicles and a year - on - year decrease of 431,000 vehicles. The sales volume was 1.805 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 541,000 vehicles and a year - on - year decrease of 324,000 vehicles - **New - Energy Automobile**: In February, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in China was 464,000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 44.9% [39] 09 Demand: Real Estate Data Decreased Year - on - Year - **Real Estate**: In December, China's real estate completion area was 208.94 million m², a year - on - year decrease of 18%; the new construction area was 53.13 million m² (-19%); the construction area was 38.24 million m² (-47%); and the commercial housing sales area was 94 million m² (-17%) - **Transaction Area**: From February 2 to March 8, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.17 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 18% and a year - on - year decrease of 28% - **Development Investment**: In December, the real estate development investment was 419.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 37% [45] 10 Soda Ash: Price Increase - **Spot Price**: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,275 yuan/ton (+15) in North China, 1,250 yuan/ton (+15) in East China, 1,225 yuan/ton (0) in Central China, and 1,375 yuan/ton (0) in South China - **Futures Price**: The soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,277 yuan/ton (+35) last Friday - **Basis**: The basis of the soda ash Central China 05 contract was - 52 yuan/ton (-35) last Friday [46][48] 11 Cost - End Soda Ash: Chemical Product Price Increase - **Soda Ash Profit**: As of last Friday, the ammonia - soda process cost of soda ash enterprises was 1,294 yuan/ton (-21), and the gross margin was - 27 yuan/ton (+56); the co - production process cost was 1,640 yuan/ton (-18), and the gross margin was 166 yuan/ton (+169) - **Other Prices**: Last Friday, the market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 2,336 yuan/ton (+322), and the ex - factory price of wet ammonium chloride of Xuzhou Fengcheng was 500 yuan/ton (+100) [52][53] 12 Cost - End Soda Ash: Inventory Remained Flat - **Soda Ash Production**: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 809,200 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2,200 tons), including 428,300 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 4,000 tons) and 380,900 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 6,200 tons). The loss was 120,900 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 2,300 tons) - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: At the end of last week, the soda ash warehouse receipts on the exchange were 2,263 (a week - on - week decrease of 1,057) - **Inventory**: As of March 13, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.9317 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of 15,500 tons), including 918,100 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 1,800 tons) and 1.0136 million tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 13,700 tons) [61][63][66] 13 Cost - End Soda Ash: Apparent Demand Increase - **Apparent Consumption**: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 430,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,800 tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 394,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 48,700 tons - **Production and Sales Rate**: Last week, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 101.92%, a week - on - week increase of 8.6% - **Glass Factory Inventory**: In February, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 19.55 days [68][71]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; selling on rallies for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Shorting on rallies or staying on the sidelines for copper; strengthening observation for aluminum; moderately holding long positions on dips for nickel; range trading for tin; trading in a range for gold, silver, and lithium carbonate [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Bullish and volatile for PVC, caustic soda, styrene, polyolefins, and methanol; selling on rallies for soda ash; buying on dips without chasing highs for rubber; range trading for urea [1] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish and volatile for cotton and cotton yarn, and apples; trading in a range for red dates [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Adopting a bearish approach on rebounds for May and July live hog contracts, treating September contracts as range - bound; range trading for eggs; being cautious about chasing highs at high levels for corn; being cautious about chasing long positions for soybean meal 05 contract; bullish and volatile for oils, with a strategy of rolling long on soybean and palm oils [1] Core Views The report provides investment suggestions for various futures products based on their market conditions, affected by factors such as international geopolitical situations (e.g., the US - Iran conflict), economic data (e.g., US GDP, inflation data), supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. Different products have different trends and trading strategies due to their unique fundamentals [1][5][6] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - to long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips. Due to factors like the significant downward revision of US Q4 GDP growth, high inflation, and the US - Iran conflict, stock indices may trade in a range in the short term [1][5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range. Influenced by factors such as China's February social financing and loan data, the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations, and the strong US dollar index, the bond market sentiment is cautious, and government bonds may show a range - bound trend [1][6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable. Coal mines are resuming production, but the trading atmosphere is weak, and downstream demand is slow to recover [1][8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The rebar futures price is currently below the electric furnace valley - electricity cost, with a low static valuation. The inventory accumulation speed has slowed down, and it is expected to peak and decline this week. The price is expected to be bullish and volatile in the short term [1][9] - **Glass**: Selling on rallies. The glass futures price has risen significantly, with the cost of production fuels increasing. The supply has slightly decreased, the inventory is high, and the demand is mainly from downstream start - up and spot - futures traders' purchases. It is expected to trade at a high level, and attention can be paid to selling out - of - the - money call options [1][10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Shorting on rallies or staying on the sidelines. The copper price is under pressure in a high - level range. Macro factors suppress the price, while the supply is facing some disturbances, and the domestic consumption is better than expected. Attention should be paid to the duration and intensity of the war, the global economic recession expectation, and the inventory depletion progress [1][13][14][15] - **Aluminum**: Strengthening observation. The price of domestic bauxite is stable, and the alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities are increasing. The Middle East situation has a two - sided impact on the aluminum price. It is recommended to be bullish with position control and pay attention to the development of the situation [1][16][17] - **Nickel**: Moderately holding long positions on dips. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia supports the price, but the demand for refined nickel is weak, and the inventory is increasing. The overall price is expected to be bullish and volatile [1][18] - **Tin**: Range trading. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is mainly for rigid demand. The inventory is at a medium level. It is expected that the tin price will continue to be volatile and bullish, and attention should be paid to the supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [1][19][20] - **Silver and Gold**: Trading in a range. Affected by the US - Iran conflict, inflation expectations, and the Fed's interest - rate policy, the prices of silver and gold have adjusted. The medium - term price centers are rising. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and trade cautiously, and pay attention to the progress of the Iranian situation and the Fed's March interest - rate decision [1][21][22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. The supply is affected by factors such as mine production suspension and import volume, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to continue to be volatile [1][24] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Bullish and volatile. The cost is low, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export is expected to maintain a high growth rate. It is recommended to trade within the rising channel, and attention should be paid to policies, export conditions, inventory, and raw material prices [1][25][26] - **Caustic Soda**: Bullish and volatile. The demand from the alumina industry provides support, and the export is increasing under the influence of geopolitical factors. There are maintenance expectations in March. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and pay attention to various factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - side maintenance, and downstream replenishment [1][27] - **Styrene**: Bullish and volatile. The cost is supported by rising oil prices, the inventory is decreasing, and the export is expected to increase. It is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs and pay attention to raw material prices, inventory, and downstream demand [1][28][29] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish and volatile. Affected by the geopolitical conflict, the cost is supported, and the supply and demand are improving. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, inventory, the Iranian situation, and oil price fluctuations [1][30] - **Rubber**: Buying on dips without chasing highs. The price is affected by synthetic rubber and inventory pressure. It is expected to be bullish and volatile, and attention should be paid to inventory, downstream demand, and market sentiment [1][31][32] - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand from agriculture and compound fertilizers is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be bullish and volatile, and attention should be paid to compound fertilizer production, urea plant maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [1][33][34] - **Methanol**: Range trading. The war in Iran affects the supply of methanol in China, and the supply - demand relationship is complex. The inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be bullish and volatile [1][35] - **Soda Ash**: Selling on rallies. The supply is expected to remain high, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the short term [1][36] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish and volatile. According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply and demand situation is changing. After the festival, the consumption expectation is rising, and the price is expected to be bullish and volatile [1][37][39] - **Apples**: Bullish and volatile. The apple trading is stable, the price of farmers' goods is stable, and the sales in the sales area are okay. The price is expected to be bullish and volatile [1][40] - **Red Dates**: Trading in a range. The acquisition price of Xinjiang gray dates in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the acquisition is based on quality [1][41][42] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Hogs**: Adopting a bearish approach on rebounds for May and July contracts, treating September contracts as range - bound. The current supply exceeds demand, and the price is in a bottom - building stage. In the medium to long term, the supply is expected to tighten, but the price increase is limited. It is recommended to adopt corresponding trading strategies and pay attention to capacity reduction [1][43] - **Eggs**: Range trading. The egg price is stable, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is in the transition from the off - season to the normal state. It is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to various factors such as chicken culling rhythm and inventory [1][44][45] - **Corn**: Being cautious about chasing highs at high levels. The current supply and demand are in a game state, and the price is bullish and volatile in the short term. In the medium to long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and it is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to weather, sales rhythm, and downstream inventory - building willingness [1][45] - **Soybean Meal**: Being cautious about chasing long positions for the 05 contract. Affected by factors such as the US - China talks, Brazilian harvest progress, and soybean arrival rhythm, the 05 contract is bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips [1][46][47] - **Oils**: Bullish and volatile. Oils follow the international crude oil and are bullish and volatile. It is recommended to roll long on soybean and palm oils. Different oils have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as international policies, production, and inventory [1][48][49][50][51][52][53][54]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives specific trading suggestions for various futures products, including long - term bullish, short - term trading, range trading, and short - selling opportunities [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple futures sectors, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - spinning industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It provides trading strategies based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and cost changes [1] Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: Long - term bullish, recommend buying on dips. US inflation cools, Fed rate - cut expectations decline, and geopolitical factors may put pressure on the stock index [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range. The trading around the Two Sessions and short - term RRR cuts or rate cuts is over, and the market will focus on quarter - end institutional behavior and overseas situations. China's inflation data may influence the market [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable, with slow demand recovery and low trading volume [9] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The rebar futures price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, with low static valuation and ongoing inventory accumulation [10] - **Glass**: Short - selling on rallies. Supply increases, inventory rises, demand is weak, and the fundamental situation is poor, limiting the upside potential [11][12] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term range trading or wait - and - see, with an operating range of 98,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors, economic recession expectations, and inventory changes need to be closely monitored [14][15] - **Aluminum**: Suggest strengthening observation. The price is affected by geopolitical situations, supply - demand changes, and inventory levels. It is recommended to allocate more while controlling positions [17] - **Nickel**: Suggest holding moderately on dips. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia supports the price, but demand is weak in some sectors [18][19] - **Tin**: Range trading. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is stable. The price is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [20] - **Gold and Silver**: Both are expected to trade in a range. Geopolitical situations and inflation expectations affect the prices, and it is recommended to wait and trade cautiously [22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. Supply and demand both increase, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [24][25] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Bullish and volatile. The cost is low, supply is high, domestic demand is weak, and exports are expected to support the price in the short term [26] - **Caustic Soda**: Bullish and volatile. Demand from alumina production provides support, and exports may increase due to geopolitical factors. Spring maintenance and downstream restocking support the price [29] - **Styrene**: Bullish and volatile. Geopolitical factors drive up the oil price, providing cost support. Low inventory and export support the price [30] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish and volatile. Geopolitical conflicts support the cost, and supply - demand conditions improve marginally [31] - **Rubber**: Bullish and volatile. Cost support is strong, but inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to buy on dips and not chase the high [32] - **Urea**: Bullish and range - trading. Supply increases, demand from agriculture and compound fertilizers supports the price, and inventory levels are relatively low [34] - **Methanol**: Bullish and range - trading. The conflict in Iran may cause supply shortages, and domestic supply and demand are in a complex situation [35] - **Soda Ash**: Short - selling on rallies. Supply is high, inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to remain under pressure [37] Cotton - Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish and volatile. Global cotton supply and demand change, and the price is expected to be bullish after the festival [38] - **Apples**: Bullish and volatile. The trading is stable, with some regional differences in price and demand [40] - **Red Dates**: Expected to trade in a range. The acquisition price in the Xinjiang region is based on quality [41] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: For contracts 05 and 07, adopt a short - selling on rallies strategy; for contract 09, treat it as a range - bound market. The short - term price is under pressure due to oversupply, and the long - term price depends on capacity reduction [42][43] - **Eggs**: Range - bound. Supply is sufficient, demand is in a transition stage, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [44] - **Corn**: Bullish and volatile. Be cautious when chasing high prices. Short - term supply - demand game is intense, and long - term supply is expected to be relatively loose [45] - **Soybean Meal**: Bullish and volatile. Be cautious when chasing long positions in the 05 contract. The price is affected by factors such as US soybean exports, Brazilian harvest, and domestic supply [46] - **Oils and Fats**: Bullish and volatile. Follow the international crude oil price. It is recommended to go long on soybean and palm oils. Different oils have different supply - demand situations [47][48][49]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [1][6][7] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; Rebar is for range trading; Glass is recommended to short on rallies [1][10][11][13] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for short - term range trading in the range of 98,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton; Aluminum is advised to strengthen observation; Nickel is recommended to hold moderately on dips; Tin is for range trading; Gold and silver are expected to move in a range; Lithium carbonate is expected to move in a range [1][15][18][20] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be bullish in a range; Rubber is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs; Urea and methanol are for range trading; Soda ash is recommended to short on rallies [1][27][30][31] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and apples are expected to be bullish in a range; Red dates are expected to move in a range [1][40][42][43] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, take a bearish approach on rebounds for contracts 05 and 07, and treat contract 09 with a range - bound view; Eggs are expected to move in a range; Corn is bullish in a range, be cautious about chasing highs at high levels; For soybean meal 05, be cautiously bullish; Oils are expected to be bullish in a range, with a strategy of rolling long on soybean and palm oils [1][45][46][48] Core Views - The global economic situation is complex, affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, inflation, and Fed's interest - rate policies. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [6][16][23] - For most futures varieties, the current market is in a state of dynamic balance, with both upward and downward pressures. Investment decisions need to comprehensively consider multiple factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and cost [10][16][27] Summaries by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The US inflation is cooling, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is weakening, and the index futures may be under pressure in the short - term, but are long - term bullish [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The trading around the Two Sessions and short - term RRR cuts and interest - rate cuts is over. The market will focus on institutional behavior at the end of the quarter and overseas situation changes. Treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [7] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable. Mines are resuming production, but the trading atmosphere is weak. Downstream demand is slow to recover, and short - term trading is recommended [10] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price is oscillating strongly. The valuation is low, and the short - term price is expected to be bullish in a range, depending on the demand recovery progress [11] - **Glass**: Supply is increasing, inventory is rising, and demand is less than expected. The price is expected to have limited upward space, and shorting on rallies is recommended [12][13] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is in a high - level range and weakening. Macro factors suppress the price, but supply and consumption expectations support it. Short - term range trading or waiting and seeing is recommended, paying attention to war factors and inventory changes [15][16] - **Aluminum**: The price is in a high - level range. The supply and demand situation is complex, affected by the Middle - East situation. Strengthening observation is recommended, and pay attention to the inflection point of inventory [17][18] - **Nickel**: Affected by the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas, the price is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to hold moderately on dips [19][20] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is in a recovery stage. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and range trading is recommended [21] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, inflation expectations, and interest - rate cut expectations, the prices are expected to oscillate and adjust. It is recommended to wait and see and trade cautiously [23][24] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand are both increasing. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the export ban in Zimbabwe and the disturbance in Yichun's mining end [25][26] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is low, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. In the short - term, it is bullish in a range, and attention should be paid to policies and risk events [27] - **Caustic Soda**: The demand from Guangxi's alumina production provides support, and the export is increasing. The price is expected to be bullish in a range, and attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, supply - side maintenance, and downstream replenishment [30] - **Styrene**: Supported by cost and export, the price is expected to be bullish in a range. It is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs, and pay attention to raw material prices and inventory [31] - **Polyolefins**: Affected by the geopolitical conflict, the cost is supported. The supply and demand are improving marginally, and the price is expected to be bullish [33] - **Rubber**: The cost is supported, but the inventory pressure is large. The price is expected to be bullish in a range. It is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs, and pay attention to inventory and demand [34] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the demand from agriculture and compound fertilizers is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be bullish in a range [36] - **Methanol**: Affected by the Iran conflict, the supply may be in short - supply. The demand from the olefin industry is stable, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to be bullish in a range [37] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is excessive, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended [39] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand situation is changing. After the festival, the consumption expectation is rising, and the price is expected to be bullish in a range [40] - **Apples**: The trading is stable, the price of farmers' goods is stable, and the sales in the sales area are okay. The price is expected to be bullish in a range [42] - **Red Dates**: The acquisition price in the production area is based on quality, and the price is expected to move in a range [43] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short - term, the supply exceeds the demand, and the price is bottom - oscillating. For contracts 05 and 07, take a bearish approach on rebounds; for contract 09, treat it with a range - bound view [44][45] - **Eggs**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is in the transition from the off - season to the normal state. The price is expected to move in a range, and shorting on rallies for near - month contracts can be considered [46] - **Corn**: The spot price is bullish in the short - term, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Be cautious about chasing highs at high levels [48] - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by factors such as the US - China talks and South American production, the 05 contract should be cautiously bullish [49] - **Oils**: Affected by the international crude oil price, the price is expected to be bullish in a range. It is recommended to roll long on soybean and palm oils [50][51][54]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; shorting on rallies for glass [1][8][10][11] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term range trading for copper, with a focus on the 98000 - 106000 range; strengthening observation for aluminum; moderately holding long positions on dips for nickel; range trading for tin; trading in a range for gold, silver, and lithium carbonate [1][14][16][18][20][21][23][24] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Trading in a range for PVC and caustic soda; shorting on rallies for soda ash; bullish and volatile for styrene, polyolefins, rubber, and urea; bullish and volatile for methanol; range trading for methanol and urea [1][26][28][29][30][32][33][35] - **Cotton - spinning Industry Chain**: Bullish and volatile for cotton and cotton yarn, apples; trading in a range for red dates [1][37][38][41] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: A bearish rolling strategy for the May contract of live pigs, cautious bullish for the July and September contracts; waiting for rallies to short near - month egg contracts; being cautious about chasing highs for corn at high levels; shorting on rallies for soybean meal; bullish and volatile for oils and fats, suggesting a rolling long strategy for soybean and palm oils [1][42][45][46][48][49] Core Views - The market risk appetite has recovered, and the volatility of the impact of the US - Iran conflict on the market may decline. Stock indices may rebound, while government bonds may trade in a range [5][6] - The fundamentals of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply, demand, cost, and geopolitical situations. Different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities according to their specific situations [1] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips. The market risk appetite has recovered, and the impact of the US - Iran conflict on the market may decline [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range. The trading around the Two Sessions and short - term RRR cuts and interest rate cuts has ended. The market will focus on institutional behavior at the end of the quarter and overseas situations [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The coking coal market is weak and stable after the Spring Festival, with slow demand recovery [8][9] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The futures price of rebar is currently below the electric furnace valley - electricity cost, with a low static valuation. The short - term price is expected to be bullish and volatile [10] - **Glass**: Shorting on rallies. The supply has increased, the inventory has risen, the demand is weak, and the cost has increased. The upside space is limited [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term range trading or observation, with a focus on the 98000 - 106000 range. The macro factors have a negative impact on copper prices, but the supply and consumption expectations support the prices [14][15] - **Aluminum**: Strengthening observation. The price is affected by the Middle East situation, and the downstream demand is gradually picking up. It is recommended to be long with position control [16][17] - **Nickel**: Moderately holding long positions on dips. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia supports the price, but the demand is weak in the short term [18][19] - **Tin**: Range trading. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in rigid need. The price is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [20] - **Silver and Gold**: Trading in a range. The prices are affected by the US - Iran war, inflation expectations, and interest rate cut expectations. It is recommended to observe and trade cautiously [21][22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Trading in a range. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [24][25] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Trading in a range. The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. There is short - term support from export tax rebates [26] - **Caustic Soda**: Trading in a range. The demand has marginal support, and there are expectations of exports and spring maintenance. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [28] - **Soda Ash**: Shorting on rallies. The supply is expected to remain high, and the inventory pressure is increasing. The price is expected to be under pressure [36] - **Styrene**: Bullish and volatile. The cost is supported by rising oil prices, and the inventory pressure is light. It is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [29] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish and volatile. The cost is supported by geopolitical conflicts, and the supply and demand are marginally improving [31] - **Rubber**: Bullish and volatile. It is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs. The cost is supported, but the inventory pressure is large [32] - **Urea**: Bullish and volatile, range trading. The supply is increasing, the demand is picking up, and the inventory is decreasing [33][34] - **Methanol**: Bullish and volatile, range trading. The supply may be affected by the war in Iran, and the demand is mixed [35] Cotton - spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish and volatile. The global cotton supply and demand situation is changing, and the price is expected to be bullish and volatile after the festival [37] - **Apples**: Bullish and volatile. The trading is stable, and the price is relatively stable [38][40] - **Red Dates**: Trading in a range. The acquisition price in the Xinjiang region is based on quality [41] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: A bearish rolling strategy for the May contract, cautious bullish for the July and September contracts. The short - term price is under pressure, and the medium - to long - term price may rebound [42][44] - **Eggs**: Waiting for rallies to short near - month contracts. The price has rebounded, but the supply is still sufficient [45] - **Corn**: Bullish and volatile, being cautious about chasing highs at high levels. The short - term price is supported, but the medium - to long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [46][47] - **Soybean Meal**: Shorting on rallies. The price is affected by the US - China talks, South American production, and soybean arrivals [48] - **Oils and Fats**: Bullish and volatile, suggesting a rolling long strategy for soybean and palm oils. The prices are affected by international oil prices and supply - demand situations [49][50][51][52][53][54]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but offers specific trading suggestions for various futures products [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides trading strategies for different futures products based on their market conditions and fundamental factors, including long - term and short - term outlooks, and also analyzes the influencing factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors [1][5][6] Summary by Category Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Long - term optimistic, buy on dips. Market risk appetite has recovered, and the volatility of the impact of the US - Iran conflict on the market may decline, leading to a potential rebound in the stock index [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Range - bound. The trading around the Two Sessions and short - term reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts is over. With the easing of the external situation, the market may focus more on domestic inflation data [1][6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable. Mines are resuming production, but the trading atmosphere is weak, and downstream demand is slow to recover [1][8][9] - **Rebar**: Range - bound trading. The rebar futures price is below the electric furnace valley electricity cost, with a low static valuation. The market is affected by overseas situations, and the steel is in the inventory accumulation period. It is expected to be range - bound and slightly stronger in the short term [1][10] - **Glass**: Sell on rallies. The fundamentals are poor, with increasing supply, rising inventory, and weak demand. Although the futures price has rebounded due to capital bottom - fishing, the upside is limited [1][11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term range - bound trading or wait - and - see, with an operating range of 98,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton. Macroeconomic factors have a negative impact on copper prices, and the supply is relatively sufficient. However, the consumption expectation provides some support [1][14][15] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. The price of domestic bauxite is falling, and the production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing. The Middle East situation has a two - sided impact on aluminum prices, and it is recommended to allocate more while controlling positions [1][16] - **Nickel**: Moderately hold long positions on dips. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia supports the price, but the demand at the high price is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [1][17][18] - **Tin**: Range - bound trading. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is in a state of rigid demand. It is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [1][19] - **Gold and Silver**: Range - bound. The US - Iran conflict has led to fluctuations in inflation and interest rate cut expectations. The medium - term price center of gold and silver has moved up, but it is recommended to wait and see [1][20][21][22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. The supply and demand are both increasing. There are concerns about supply disruptions, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [1][23][24] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Range - bound. The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export has some support. It is expected to be range - bound and slightly stronger in the short term [1][25][27] - **Caustic Soda**: Range - bound. There is an expectation of increased exports under the influence of geopolitics, and the price has rebounded strongly at a low valuation. Attention should be paid to supply - side maintenance and downstream replenishment [1][28] - **Styrene**: Bullish and range - bound. The cost is supported by rising oil prices, the inventory pressure is light, and it is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [1][29][30] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish and range - bound. The cost is supported by rising oil and gas prices, and the supply - demand situation has improved marginally [1][31] - **Rubber**: Bullish and range - bound. The cost is supported by high overseas raw material prices, but the inventory pressure is large. It is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [1][32] - **Urea**: Bullish and range - bound. The supply is increasing, the demand from agriculture and compound fertilizers is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended for range - bound trading [1][33] - **Methanol**: Bullish and range - bound. The conflict in Iran may cause a supply gap in China. The domestic supply and demand are in a certain state, and it is recommended for range - bound trading [1][34][35] - **Soda Ash**: Sell on rallies. The supply is expected to remain high, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be under pressure [1][36] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish and range - bound. The global cotton supply and demand situation has changed, and the price is expected to be bullish and range - bound after the festival [1][37][38] - **Apples**: Bullish and range - bound. The trading is stable, the price of farmers' goods is stable, and the sales in the sales area are okay [1][39] - **Jujubes**: Range - bound. The acquisition price in the production area is based on quality [1][40] Agricultural and Livestock - **Hogs**: 05 contract: short on rallies; 07 and 09 contracts: cautiously bullish. The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. In the long - term, the supply may tighten, but the price increase is limited [1][41][42] - **Eggs**: Wait for rallies to short near - month contracts. The egg price has rebounded, the supply is sufficient, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - month contracts [1][43] - **Corn**: Bullish and range - bound, be cautious about chasing highs at high levels. The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [1][44] - **Soybean Meal**: Short on rallies at high levels. The price of US soybeans has fluctuated, and the domestic supply - demand situation is affected by factors such as imports. It is recommended to short on rallies [1][45][46] - **Oils and Fats**: Bullish and range - bound, recommend a rolling long strategy for soybean and palm oils. The prices of various oils and fats are affected by factors such as international oil prices, production, and exports. Palm and soybean oils are relatively strong, while rapeseed oil is relatively weak [1][46][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate shows that the supply side has some uncertainties, such as the non - resumption of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine, the suspension of all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports by the Zimbabwean Ministry of Mines, and the ongoing disturbances in Yichun's mining licenses. The cost of imported lithium spodumene concentrate has increased, and the weekly production of lithium carbonate has increased by 1,850 tons to 23,000 tons last week, with a 17.6% month - on - month decrease in February production. In December 2025, the import of lithium concentrate in China was 789,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%, and the import of lithium carbonate was about 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.4%. The demand side is in a pattern of strong supply and demand, with an overall increase in production scheduling in March. The inventory of lithium carbonate is in a destocking state this week. Considering the above factors, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to fluctuate [5][6][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint 3.1.1 Supply - side Situation - The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 1,850 tons to 23,000 tons last week, and the production in February decreased by 17.6% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, the Zimbabwean Ministry of Mines has suspended all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports, and there are still disturbances in Yichun's mining licenses. In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and there is extremely limited room for further cost reduction. In December 2025, the import of lithium concentrate in China was 789,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%. The top three countries in terms of import volume were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. The import of lithium carbonate in December was 23,989 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9%. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, and the weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate smelting rose to about 55% [5]. 3.1.2 Demand - side Situation - In March, the overall production scheduling increased month - on - month, and the industrial chain is in a pattern of strong supply and demand. In January, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 168.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 16.7% and a year - on - year increase of 55.9%. The total export of power and energy - storage batteries was 24.1 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 26.0% and a year - on - year increase of 38.3%. The sales volume of power and energy - storage batteries was 148.8 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 85.1%. The new - energy vehicle purchase tax policy is expected to continue to support the rapid growth of China's new - energy vehicle market sales [6]. 3.1.3 Inventory Situation - This week, the inventory of lithium carbonate is in a destocking state. The factory inventory decreased by 4,970 tons, the market inventory increased by 6,002 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 2,131 tons [6]. 3.1.4 Strategy Suggestions - Considering the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo mine is still shut down, there are still risks in Yichun's mining licenses, and the subsequent import of South American lithium salts is expected to supplement the supply. On the demand side, the industrial chain is in a pattern of strong supply and demand. The suspension of exports by Zimbabwe and the risks in Yichun's mining licenses have led to concerns about supply disturbances. With the profit recovery, the production of lithium from ore continues to increase, and the cost center has shifted upwards. The resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo is postponed, the shipment of South American lithium salts increases, and the inventory continues to decline. Attention should be paid to the progress of Zimbabwe's export ban and the disturbances at the Yichun mining end. With both supply and demand increasing, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot - price trend of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial - grade), monthly factory inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of imported lithium concentrate, production of power and other batteries, production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials in February 2026, difference between domestic power - battery production and loading volume, production of lithium iron phosphate, production of ternary materials, average production cost of lithium carbonate, average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type), import volume of lithium spodumene, and market price of ternary materials (8 - series NCA type) [9][10][13][15][19][20][22][25][26][28][32][34][39][40].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Shanghai copper futures showed a weak trend, oscillating downward within a high - level range. As of March 6, it closed at 101,050 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.76%. The ongoing war between the US - Israel and Iran led to a continuous increase in oil prices, raising global inflation expectations, reducing market expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts this year, strengthening the US dollar index, and suppressing copper prices. Fundamentally, the shortage at the mining end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fees for copper concentrates remain at historical lows. The production in March may reach a record high, while domestic copper inventories continue to accumulate, and copper prices are under overall pressure [5]. - In the supply side, the shortage at the mining end persists, and the spot TC of copper concentrates remains low. The supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates is relatively abundant. The electrolytic copper production in February was seasonally low, and it is expected to increase in March. In the demand side, copper foil and copper rod production have different trends, and the substitution effect of refined copper for scrap copper is weakened. In terms of inventory, domestic copper inventories continue to accumulate significantly, while COMEX copper inventories start to decline. It is recommended to wait and see, closely monitor the war situation, global economic recession expectations, and inventory depletion progress [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategies 3.1.1 Last Week's Market Review - The Shanghai copper futures trended weakly last week, closing at 101,050 yuan/ton on March 6, with a weekly decline of 2.76%. Geopolitical conflicts increased inflation expectations, reduced Fed rate - cut expectations, strengthened the US dollar, and pressured copper prices. The shortage at the mining end persisted, production might reach a record high in March, domestic inventories accumulated, and downstream demand increased after the price correction [5]. 3.1.2 Supply - side Situation - The shortage at the mining end has not been substantially repaired. As of March 6, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 485,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.64% and a year - on - year increase of 2.54%. The spot smelting fee for copper concentrates was - 56 dollars/ton, hitting a historical low. The supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates was abundant, with the southern domestic blister copper processing fee in February reaching 2,350 yuan/ton. The electrolytic copper production in February was 1.1424 million tons, and it is expected to increase in March [9][27]. 3.1.3 Demand - side Situation - The copper foil operating rate continued to rise, with a rate of 88.56% in January. The copper rod operating rate also increased, reaching 62.47% in the week from February 27 to March 5. The copper bar operating rate was affected by the Spring Festival, with a rate of 22.78% in February. The substitution effect of refined copper for scrap copper was weakened [9][30]. 3.1.4 Inventory Situation - As of March 6, the SHFE copper inventory was 42.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.59%. The SMM national mainstream copper inventory on March 5 was 577,200 tons, a significant increase compared to the same period last year. The LME copper inventory increased, while the COMEX copper inventory decreased [9][34]. 3.1.5 Strategy Suggestions - Geopolitical conflicts suppress copper prices. The domestic social inventory continues to accumulate, and the global copper inventory accumulation exceeds expectations. Although the supply of refined copper is relatively sufficient, the downstream demand has improved after the holiday. It is recommended to wait and see, closely monitor the war situation, global economic recession expectations, and inventory depletion progress [9]. 3.2 Futures, Spot Market, and Positioning Situation 3.2.1 Premium and Discount - The decline in the Shanghai copper futures price stimulated downstream orders, and the spot discount gradually recovered. The LME copper 0 - 3 discount narrowed, and the New York - London copper price difference remained low. The Shanghai copper is in a contango structure, and the inter - month price difference has narrowed [15]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of March 6, the Shanghai copper futures open interest was 195,682 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 3.98%, while the average daily trading volume increased by 47.94% week - on - week. As of February 27, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions decreased by 47.57% week - on - week. As of March 3, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions decreased by 4.96% week - on - week [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - side - The shortage at the mining end has not been repaired, and the copper concentrate inventory is at a low level. The spot smelting fee for copper concentrates is at a historical low. The supply of scrap - produced blister copper is abundant, and the electrolytic copper production is expected to increase in March [27]. 3.3.2 Downstream Operating Rates - The copper foil operating rate continued to rise, while the copper bar operating rate was affected by the Spring Festival. The refined copper rod operating rate increased significantly after the price correction, and the substitution effect of refined copper for scrap copper was weakened [30]. 3.3.3 Inventory - The domestic copper inventory continues to accumulate, with the SHFE and LME inventories increasing, while the COMEX copper inventory has started to decline [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The impact of the Middle East situation on aluminum prices is two - sided. Currently, the positives outweigh the negatives, but it's not certain. It is recommended to have a long - biased allocation while controlling positions. Attention should also be paid to the development of the situation and the inflection point of the social inventory of aluminum ingots [3] Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Viewpoint - Domestic bauxite prices continue to fall, while the mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore increased by $0.3 per dry ton week - on - week to $60.8 per dry ton due to rising freight. Alumina operating capacity increased by 200,000 tons week - on - week to 93.7 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 25,000 tons week - on - week to 5.309 million tons. The electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 16,000 tons week - on - week to 44.716 million tons. The unclear Middle East situation and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices may affect aluminum production. The domestic downstream processing enterprises' operating rate increased by 2.5% week - on - week to 59.5%, and the social inventory of aluminum rods shows signs of an inflection point [3] 02. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve, the US dollar index, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar [5] 03. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite prices continue to decline. The theoretical cost difference between domestic and imported ores used by alumina plants is large, and domestic ores are difficult to maintain in the long - term. Mines in Shanxi and Henan are gradually resuming production, but fundamental problems are difficult to solve in the short - term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore increased by $0.3 per dry ton week - on - week to $60.8 per dry ton. Although the shipping volume of Guinea bauxite is increasing, the ore price is still under pressure [8] 04. Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with no week - on - week change. The operating capacity was 93.7 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons week - on - week, and the operating rate was 81.8%. The domestic spot weighted price was 2,673.6 yuan per ton, an increase of 13.7 yuan per ton week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 5.309 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons week - on - week. A large alumina plant in Hebei has its roasting end shut down, and it is accelerating the construction of roasting furnaces in Jiayuguan [11] 05. Alumina Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on the basis, port inventory, north - south price difference, and transportation volume of alumina [13][14][15][16] 06. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.422 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 44.716 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons week - on - week. The unclear Middle East situation and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices may affect electrolytic aluminum production. New production capacities are being put into operation at home and abroad, and some enterprises are restarting production or reducing production [20] 07. Electrolytic Aluminum Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on the processing fee of aluminum rods, the forward curve of Shanghai aluminum, the price of动力煤, and the import profit of aluminum [22] 08. Inventory - The report presents the historical data of the social inventory of aluminum rods and ingots, the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures, and the LME aluminum inventory [25][26][27][28] 09. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises increased by 3.2% week - on - week to 56.3%. Some previously shut - down enterprises have gradually resumed production, but the terminal demand recovery is average, and downstream procurement is mainly for small orders to meet rigid needs [31] 10. Casting Aluminum Alloy Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on the price of profile aluminum, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots [33][34][35][36] 11. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 2.5% week - on - week to 59.5%. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises increased by 7.5% week - on - week to 44.5%, and that of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises increased by 2% week - on - week to 69% [39][43] 12. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises increased by 6% week - on - week to 63%, while the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises decreased by 4.6% week - on - week to 51.2% [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, the cost increase drives the price to run strongly. Geopolitical conflicts intensify commodity price fluctuations. Although the overall soybean meal price is at the cost bottom and fully reflects the expectation of loose supply and demand, the price is likely to break through upwards under the background of international and geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to go long on dips [8]. - For oils and fats, in the short term, the continuous Middle - East war and geopolitical risks lead to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, supporting the oils and fats to continue to oscillate strongly. However, attention should be paid to the risk of high - level adjustment of oils and fats if the Middle - East situation eases. It is recommended to take a long position in soybean and palm oils and roll over existing long positions [73]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Period and Spot Ends As of March 6, the spot price in East China was 3050 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2605 contract closed at 2915 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis price was 05 + 150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week. The domestic spot supply and demand remained loose, and the basis price was weak; the 05 contract followed the increase in US soybean cost and the price ran strongly [8][10]. 3.1.2 Supply End The conflict between the US and Iran pushed up the crude oil price, which was expected to drive up the price of US soybean oil and support the price of US soybeans. The new - season planting cost of US soybeans was affected by the recent increase in fertilizer prices, supporting the upward shift of the center price of US soybeans. The increase in crude oil price also drove up international freight rates and supported the premium price. Although the FOB price of Brazilian soybeans declined, the CNF price did not weaken significantly. The geopolitical situation pushed up the price of US soybeans. If the Iran war continued, the price of US soybeans was expected to continue to rise. The premium in Brazil remained around 100 cents, and the significant increase in freight rates limited the decline of the Brazilian premium price. The continuous drought in Argentina affected the soybean, with the good - quality rate declining and the output expected to decline slightly, but the overall supply - demand in South America remained loose. The arrivals in China from April to May were gradually increasing, and the supply - demand remained loose [8]. 3.1.3 Demand End The domestic pig inventory remained at a high level but entered the seasonal off - season, with the pig inventory decreasing month - on - month. The poultry inventory was at a high level, and the egg - laying hens and broilers inventory remained high. In terms of the formula, the prices of corn and wheat increased, and soybean meal was more cost - effective, with the proportion of soybean meal added increasing steadily. The overall demand for soybean meal remained high. Recently, the price of soybean meal increased, and the purchasing sentiment of downstream buyers improved, with better transactions. In the 9th week of 2026, the soybean inventory of national oil mills increased to 596.69 million tons, an increase of 77.15 million tons or 14.85% week - on - week, and an increase of 181.29 million tons or 43.64% year - on - year; the soybean meal inventory of national oil mills decreased to 70.12 million tons, a decrease of 14.13 million tons or 16.77% week - on - week, and an increase of 7.19 million tons or 11.43% year - on - year [8]. 3.1.4 Cost End Based on the current US soybean price of 1200 cents, a premium of 100 cents, and an oil - meal ratio of 3.0, the theoretical price of soybean meal was calculated to be 2940 yuan/ton. From July to September, calculated with a premium of 140 cents, the import cost of Brazilian soybeans increased to 3020 yuan/ton. The announced planting cost of US soybeans for the 2026/27 season was 1218 cents per bushel. If the crude oil price continued to rise, referring to the trend of fertilizer prices after the Russia - Ukraine war in 2021, the planting cost was expected to continue to rise. In terms of import crushing profit, the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose significantly, and the import crushing profit improved. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans was around 100 yuan/ton, and the profit level was at a relatively good level in the same period of history [8]. 3.2 Oils and Fats 3.2.1 Period and Spot Ends As of the week of March 6, the main 05 contract of palm oil rose 438 yuan/ton to 9218 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou rose 420 yuan/ton to 9200 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 05 basis of palm oil fell 18 yuan/ton to - 18 yuan/ton week - on - week. The main 05 contract of soybean oil rose 186 yuan/ton to 8412 yuan/ton week - on - week; the fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang rose 90 yuan/ton to 8720 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 05 basis of soybean oil fell 96 yuan/ton to 308 yuan/ton week - on - week. The main 05 contract of rapeseed oil rose 481 yuan/ton to 9666 yuan/ton week - on - week; the third - grade rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang rose 420 yuan/ton to 10040 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 05 basis of rapeseed oil fell 61 yuan/ton to 374 yuan/ton week - on - week. Affected by the Middle - East war, the crude oil price rose rapidly, driving the domestic vegetable oils to oscillate strongly. Among them, palm oil, which was most closely related to crude oil, and rapeseed oil, with relatively tight domestic supply - demand, performed relatively strongly [73][75]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil In February, Malaysia continued to reduce production. According to SPPOMA and MPOA data, the output of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 28 decreased by 16.24 - 19.35% month - on - month, and the decline was larger than that from February 1 - 20. However, affected by the export squeeze from Indonesia, shipping agencies reported that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 28 decreased by 21.5 - 25.46% month - on - month. The poor export data limited the de - stocking amplitude, and the estimated inventory in February was 2.63 million tons, which decreased month - on - month but was still relatively high. In Indonesia, as the crude oil price rose, GAPKI indicated that B50 might be reconsidered in 2026, and the production side faced the risk of production reduction due to the nationalization of plantations in 2025, both of which were positive factors. In the short term, driven by the rise of crude oil, the 05 contract of Malaysian palm oil was expected to continue to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the performance near the previous resistance level of 4400 - 4460. In China, the arrival volume of palm oil in February was expected to increase significantly. Coupled with the general market demand, the palm oil inventory continued to accumulate under the situation of strong supply and weak demand. As of the week of February 27, the domestic palm oil inventory rose to a high of 786,700 tons. However, the estimated arrival volume of palm oil from March to April was low, and attention should be paid to whether de - stocking could start from March to April after the reduction in supply [73]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil The USDA would release the March report on March 10. The market expected that the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season might be lowered, mainly because the positive US biodiesel policy was expected to be implemented in late March, which was beneficial to the US soybean crushing demand, and China's procurement would boost the US soybean export demand. In South America, the USDA March report was expected to slightly lower the soybean output of Brazil and Argentina in the 2025/26 season to 178 million tons and 48.1 million tons respectively. However, Brazil was still expected to have a bumper harvest and was expected to flood the market in the second quarter, which would impact the US soybean export demand. In addition, US soybean oil was strong due to the positive US biodiesel policy and the rise of international crude oil, which strongly supported US soybeans. Overall, driven by the rise of international crude oil and US soybean oil, the improvement of US soybean demand, and the slight production reduction in South America, the 05 contract of US soybeans was expected to continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. After breaking through 1200, attention should be paid to the resistance level of 1250. In China, the arrival volume of soybeans from February to March decreased seasonally, and there were market rumors that the customs had extended the clearance time for South American soybeans, which was beneficial to the de - stocking of soybean oil inventory. As of the week of February 27, the soybean oil inventory slightly decreased to 913,300 tons. However, after March, a record amount of South American soybeans would enter China, and the scope of further de - stocking of soybean oil inventory was limited [73]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil The Middle - East war pushed up the international crude oil price and freight rates, strengthening the cost - side support for domestic imported rapeseed. In addition, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz hindered the transportation of Dubai rapeseed oil to China, exacerbating the tight supply - demand situation of rapeseed oil and jointly driving up the domestic rapeseed oil price. However, on February 27, the final anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed was concluded. China's comprehensive import tax on Canadian rapeseed was 15%, significantly lower than the previous 75.8% deposit. Although the current loss of crushing profit for importing Canadian rapeseed in China restricted ship - buying, the trade channel between the two countries had been reopened. As long as the crushing profit was appropriate, China could import a large amount of Canadian rapeseed in the future. Coupled with the arrival of 10 ships of Canadian rapeseed purchased earlier from March to May, it was expected that the tight supply - demand situation of rapeseed in China would significantly ease after March. As of the week of February 27, the rapeseed inventory in coastal areas had begun to increase to 151,000 tons, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory had also slightly increased to 271,000 tons. The inventory inflection point had appeared, and the inventory would continue to accumulate in the future [73].