Report Information - Report Title: Yangtze River Futures Monthly Report on the Aquaculture Industry [1] - Report Date: March 2, 2026 [1] - Researcher: Ye Tian [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Pig Industry**: In the short term, pig prices will fluctuate at the bottom due to oversupply in the first half of the year and seasonal weak demand. However, the potential for secondary fattening and frozen pork storage at low prices, along with government purchasing support, will limit the downside. In the long term, supply will gradually tighten from July to October, but price increases may be limited due to high sow inventories and cost reduction efforts [7]. - **Egg Industry**: In the short term, egg prices are expected to rise slightly but with limited upside due to ongoing supply pressure and seasonal weak demand. In the long term, supply pressure will gradually ease, but the process will be slow [53]. - **Corn Industry**: In the short term, the corn market will be supported by tight supply and post - holiday restocking demand. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern will be looser, and price increases will be limited [89]. Summary by Section Pig Industry Market Performance - As of February 27, the national pig price was 10.8 yuan/kg, down 1.41 yuan/kg from the end of last month. The Henan average pig price was 11.13 yuan/kg, down 1.33 yuan/kg. The 05 futures price closed at 11485 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton. The 05 contract basis was - 355 yuan/ton, down 1165 yuan/ton from the end of last month [7]. Supply - In December 2025, pig production capacity was still above the normal level. In January 2026, with positive breeding profits, capacity reduction slowed down. High production performance will lead to a relatively loose supply in 2026. Supply pressure will ease slightly from April but remain high in the first half of the year. Supply will decrease marginally from July to October [7]. - The average slaughter weight decreased monthly but was still at a high level compared to the same period. The willingness for secondary fattening increased as pig prices fell after the Spring Festival, potentially increasing future supply pressure [22]. Demand - The slaughtering rate of slaughterhouses first increased, then decreased, and then increased again in February. In March, it is expected to rise slightly at a low level. Frozen pork inventory is being depleted. As pig prices fall, slaughterhouses may increase inventory, boosting consumption [7]. Cost - Piglet prices decreased, and sow prices were stable in February. Breeding profits turned negative, and future breeding costs are expected to decline [7]. Policy - The government will continue to guide the pig production capacity to stay within a balanced range and ensure stable supply and prices. If the pig - grain ratio falls below 5:1, policy measures such as state purchasing will be implemented [7]. Strategy - Adopt a short - term bearish strategy for the 05 contract on rebounds. Be cautious about chasing up prices for the 07 and 09 contracts. Hedge on price increases for the 11 and 01 contracts before effective capacity reduction [7]. Egg Industry Market Performance - As of February 27, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.93 yuan/jin, down 1.03 yuan/jin from the end of January. The average price in the main selling areas was 2.97 yuan/jin, down 1 yuan/jin. The main contract closed at 3267 yuan/500 kg, up 41 yuan/500 kg. The main basis was - 597 yuan/500 kg, weaker by 991 yuan/500 kg [55]. Supply - The number of newly - laid hens in March is average. The inventory of laying hens has been slowly declining but remains at a relatively high level. In the long term, the supply pressure will gradually ease, but the process will be slow [55]. Demand - In March, egg prices rebounded from a low level. The demand for group meals and food factories supported the market. The price advantage of eggs over substitutes remained, supporting the bottom price [55]. Strategy - If the spot price increase is less than expected, take a bearish view on the near - month 04 and 05 contracts [55]. Corn Industry Market Performance - As of February 27, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2370 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the end of January. The main 2605 contract closed at 2360 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton. The main basis was 10 yuan/ton, weaker by 52 yuan/ton [94]. Supply - The national primary grain sales progress reached 66%, 4% slower than the same period last year. The supply pattern is relatively tight in the short term. Corn imports in December 2025 were 800,000 tons, a significant year - on - year increase [94]. Demand - Feed demand has strong rigid support, but there is no significant increase. Deep - processing demand is limited due to low operating rates and high product inventories [94]. Strategy - In the short term, the futures price will be supported by downstream restocking and low port inventories. In the long term, the price increase is limited due to the expected loose supply - demand pattern [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass industry presents a pattern of weak current reality and strong future expectations. The short - term fundamentals are deteriorating, but considering the frequent market news disturbances, there is an opportunity to short the May contract and long the September contract [3][85]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review: Spot Price Increase and Widening Monthly Spread - **Spot Price**: As of February 27, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,050 yuan/ton in North China (+20), 1,100 yuan/ton in Central China (0), and 1,250 yuan/ton in East China (+70). The weekly changes in the prices of 5mm float glass from some manufacturers were 16 yuan/ton for Shahe Anquan, 8 yuan/ton for Shahe Great Wall, 40 yuan/ton for Tengzhou Jinjing, and 0 yuan/ton for Wuhan Changli [13][14]. - **Futures Price**: Last Friday, the glass 05 contract closed at 1,062 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan from the previous week [14]. - **Basis**: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 05 contract was 58 yuan/ton (-21), and the 05 - 09 spread was - 104 yuan/ton (-10). The spread between soda ash and glass futures was 132 yuan/ton (+35) [15][19]. 2. Supply - Demand Pattern: Inventory Accumulation During the Festival and Delayed Start - up - **Profit**: For the natural - gas - based process, the cost was 1,566 yuan/ton (+2), and the gross profit was - 316 yuan/ton (+68). For the coal - gas - based process, the cost was 1,170 yuan/ton (+3), and the gross profit was - 120 yuan/ton (+17). For the petroleum - coke - based process, the cost was 1,107 yuan/ton (+2), and the gross profit was 3 yuan/ton (-2) [24]. - **Supply**: Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 147,135 tons/day, with 209 lines in production. There have been multiple cold - repair,复产, new - ignition, and conversion events in the production lines [26][27]. - **Inventory**: As of February 27, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 76.008 million weight boxes, an increase of 20.656 million weight boxes compared to the previous period. Inventories in various regions have generally increased, with significant accumulation in Central China and North China [30]. - **Deep - processing**: On February 26, the comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass was 71% (+48%). On February 27, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 19.3% (+4.7%). At the beginning of February, the order days of glass deep - processing were 6.35 days (-2.95) [33]. - **Demand - Automobile**: In January, China's automobile production was 2.45 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 0.846 million vehicles, and the sales volume was 2.346 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 0.926 million vehicles. In January, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 0.596 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 38.6% [42]. - **Demand - Real Estate**: In December, China's real estate completion area was 208.94 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18%. The new - start area was 53.13 million square meters (-19%), the construction area was 38.24 million square meters (-47%), and the commercial housing sales area was 94 million square meters (-17%). From February 16 to 22, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 80,000 square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 94% and a year - on - year decrease of 95%. In December, real estate development investment was 419.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 37% [49]. - **Import and Export**: In December, China's float glass imports were 292,400 weight boxes (a year - on - year decrease of 67%), and exports were 1.7394 million weight boxes (a year - on - year increase of 39%) [51]. - **Cost - Soda Ash - Futures**: Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,194 yuan/ton (+32), and the basis of the soda ash Central China 05 contract was 31 yuan/ton (-32) [59][60]. - **Cost - Soda Ash - Cost**: The cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda - ash enterprises was 1,303 yuan/ton (-7), with a gross profit of - 90 yuan/ton (-1). The cost of the co - production process was 1,647 yuan/ton (-45), with a gross profit of - 2 yuan/ton (+31) [61][63]. - **Cost - Soda Ash - Inventory**: Last week, the domestic soda - ash production was 790,900 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2,800 tons), including 423,000 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 3,200 tons) and 367,900 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 400 tons). As of February 27, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.8944 million tons (a week - on - week increase of 316,000 tons), with 895,900 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 149,900 tons) and 998,500 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 166,100 tons). The exchange soda - ash warehouse receipts last weekend were 2,924 pieces (a week - on - week decrease of 1,111 pieces) [71][74][75]. - **Cost - Soda Ash - Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for light soda ash was 353,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons. The apparent demand for heavy soda ash last week was 384,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,700 tons. Last week, the production - sales ratio of soda ash was 61.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 38.01%. In January, the soda - ash inventory of sample float - glass factories was 23.9 days [83]. 3. Investment Strategy: Near - term Weakness and Long - term Strength, Short May and Long September - **Main Logic**: After the Spring Festival, the glass futures fluctuated in the first week. Due to the holiday, the market trading was stagnant, and the production - sales indicators declined significantly. The basis in the Shahe area is narrowing, and there is an expectation of price reduction for the spot in Central China. The 5 - 9 spread indicates a stronger far - month drive. The daily melting volume remains unchanged, and the national inventory is higher than last year, with obvious inventory accumulation in Central China. The demand for raw - sheet procurement is weak, and soda ash is considered weak. In the short term, the fundamentals of the glass industry are deteriorating, but considering the long - term cold - repair expectations and environmental policies, there is an opportunity to short the May contract and long the September contract [3][85]. - **Operation Strategy**: Short the May contract and long the September contract [2][4][86].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and a strategy of shorting May and going long September for glass [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term range trading for copper, suggesting more observation for aluminum, moderately holding long positions on dips for nickel, range trading for tin, and both gold and silver expected to be in a strong - side oscillation, with lithium carbonate in a range oscillation [1][12][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, low - level oscillation for caustic soda, shorting on rallies for soda ash, going long on dips but not chasing highs for styrene and rubber, range trading for urea and methanol, and a strong - side oscillation for polyolefins [1][19][21] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillating with a strong bias for cotton and cotton yarn, apples, and dates oscillating [1][29][30][32] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Caution against shorting the May contract of live pigs, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds; if the culling of laying hens does not accelerate, shorting on rebounds for near - month egg contracts; range trading for corn due to high short - term basis; shorting on rallies for soybean meal; and a strategy of going long on dips for soybean and palm oils as oils follow international crude oil in a strong - side oscillation [1][33][34][37] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts such as the Iran situation and trade policy uncertainties are impacting the financial and commodity markets, affecting the supply and demand and price trends of various commodities [6][13] - The supply and demand fundamentals of different industries are in a state of change, with some industries facing supply - side challenges, while others are affected by seasonal and policy factors [8][19][25] - The prices of most commodities are expected to show different trends, including oscillations, strong - side oscillations, and range trading, and investors should adopt corresponding trading strategies according to different market conditions [1] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Geopolitical conflicts may put pressure on stock indices in the short term, but they are bullish in the medium to long term, and investors are advised to buy on dips [6] - **Government Bonds**: With the release of policy signals and the approaching of the Two Sessions, government bonds are expected to oscillate with a strong bias [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable. Mines are resuming production, but trading is weak, and short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price is oscillating. It has a low static valuation and weak driving forces. It is expected to oscillate in the context of low - valuation and weak - driving, and range trading is recommended [8] - **Glass**: The glass market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term fundamentals are deteriorating, and a strategy of shorting May and going long September is recommended [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Policy uncertainties and supply - demand contradictions coexist. The short - term price is expected to oscillate in the range of 98,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton, and range trading is recommended [12][13][14] - **Aluminum**: The supply expectation is improving, but the market sentiment for being bullish on non - ferrous metals remains. It is recommended to strengthen observation [15] - **Nickel**: Affected by the reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, the ore end has strong support, and it is recommended to moderately hold long positions on dips [16][17] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in a state of rigid procurement. It is expected to oscillate with a strong bias, and range trading is recommended [17] - **Gold and Silver**: Due to geopolitical conflicts and the weakening of the US economic data, the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up, and they are expected to oscillate with a strong bias. It is recommended to build long positions on dips after sufficient price corrections [18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply disturbances reappear, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate with a strong bias, and range trading is recommended [19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the inventory is high. However, it has a low valuation, and range trading is recommended, focusing on policies and cost disturbances [19][21] - **Caustic Soda**: The demand support is weak, there is inventory pressure in the short term, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level, focusing on supply - side maintenance and downstream replenishment [21] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in excess, the inventory pressure is increasing, and it is recommended to short on rallies [28][29] - **Styrene**: Supported by cost and with low inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival, it is expected to oscillate with a strong bias, and it is recommended to go long on dips but not chase highs [22][23] - **Rubber**: The supply of raw materials is shrinking, and there is a short - term upward expectation. It is recommended to go long on dips but not chase highs [23] - **Urea**: After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand are both increasing. The price is expected to be strong in March and may be under pressure later, and range trading is recommended [24][25] - **Methanol**: The war in Iran may cause a supply gap, and the price may be pushed up in the short term. The supply and demand are both at a relatively high level, and range trading is recommended [27] - **Polyolefins**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts and cost support, they are expected to oscillate with a strong bias, focusing on downstream demand and inventory [28] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The new - year global cotton supply and demand situation is changing, and the price is expected to oscillate with a strong bias after the festival [29] - **Apples**: The apple trading is stable, and the price is expected to oscillate with a strong bias [30][31] - **Dates**: The acquisition price of Xinjiang gray dates in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the price is expected to oscillate [32] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the pig price is oscillating at a low level, and the May contract is recommended to be shorted on rebounds. In the long term, the price may strengthen, but the increase is limited [33] - **Eggs**: The egg price has a bottom support, but the supply is sufficient, and if the culling does not accelerate, it is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts [34] - **Corn**: The short - term price is in a range oscillation, and the medium - to long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and range trading is recommended [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal price is under pressure, and it is recommended to short on rallies [37] - **Oils**: Oils are expected to oscillate with a strong bias following international crude oil, and it is recommended to go long on dips for soybean and palm oils [37][42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Amid intensifying geopolitical conflicts, there is a contradiction between cost support and loose supply - demand. Although the price has fully factored in the expectation of loose supply - demand, there is a high probability of an upward breakthrough. It is advisable to go long on dips [5][6]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short - term, due to the sharp rise in international crude oil prices caused by the tense Middle - East situation, domestic vegetable oils are expected to oscillate strongly. Among them, soybean oil is expected to outperform palm and rapeseed oils. In the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to factors such as the Middle - East situation, US biodiesel policy, palm oil production season in Malaysia, and the yield of South American soybeans in the 2025/26 season. There are risks of price decline, but overall, the general trend of oils and fats is upward [67][69][222]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Market Performance - As of February 27, the spot price in East China was 3030 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the M2605 contract closed at 2833 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 66 yuan/ton; the basis was 05 + 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [6][8]. 3.1.2 Supply - The US - Iran conflict has pushed up crude oil prices, which is expected to drive up the price of US soybean oil and support the price of US soybeans. At the same time, the increase in international freight rates supports the premium price. - US soybeans are in a strong position due to China's expected additional purchase of 8 million tons and the support of biodiesel. Brazilian premiums are around 100 cents, and the decline is limited before the sales pressure is realized. Argentina's soybean yield is expected to decline slightly due to drought [6]. 3.1.3 Demand - The domestic pig inventory remains at a high level but has entered a seasonal off - peak period, with a month - on - month decline. The poultry inventory is high. Due to the rising prices of corn and wheat, the proportion of soybean meal added to the formula has increased steadily, and overall demand remains high [6]. 3.1.4 Cost - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents/bushel. The domestic cost of soybean meal from May to August is estimated to be 2600 yuan/ton, and from July to September, it is 2730 yuan/ton. The cost of US soybeans in the second half of the year is estimated to be 2970 yuan/ton. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has risen to around 100 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Oils and Fats 3.2.1 Market Performance - As of February 27, the palm oil main 05 contract decreased by 460 yuan/ton to 8780 yuan/ton; the soybean oil main 05 contract decreased by 56 yuan/ton to 8226 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil main 05 contract decreased by 195 yuan/ton to 9185 yuan/ton [69][71]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The tense Middle - East situation has driven up international crude oil prices and vegetable oil prices. In Malaysia, the palm oil production season has continued to decline in February, but the decline is within the normal historical range, and the export data is poor, limiting the destocking amplitude. In China, the inventory has continued to accumulate due to increased imports and weak demand [69]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The tense Middle - East situation, the expected US biodiesel policy, and the potential reduction in Argentina's soybean yield have jointly promoted the rise of US soybean oil prices. In China, the seasonal decline in soybean arrivals in February - March is conducive to the destocking of soybean oil, but the large - scale arrival of South American soybeans in March may limit the destocking amplitude [69]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The tense Middle - East situation has driven up international crude oil prices, which is expected to drive up domestic rapeseed oil prices in the short - term. However, after the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the domestic rapeseed supply - demand situation is expected to ease, and the inventory will continue to accumulate [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index: Long - term bullish, buy on dips [1][6] - Treasury bonds: Range - bound trading [1][6] - Coking coal: Short - term trading [1][7] - Rebar: Range trading [1][8] - Glass: Weak - side range - bound trading [1][9] - Copper: Short - term range trading, focus on 98000 - 106000 [1][11] - Aluminum: Strengthen observation [1][12] - Nickel: Moderately hold long positions on dips [1][14] - Tin: Range trading [1][15] - Gold: Range trading [1][16] - Silver: Range trading [1][16] - Lithium carbonate: Range - bound oscillation [1][17] - PVC: Range trading [1][17] - Caustic soda: Low - level range - bound trading [1][20] - Soda ash: Short on rallies [1][27] - Styrene: Go long on dips, not chase highs [1][21] - Rubber: Range trading [1][22] - Urea: Range trading [1][24] - Methanol: Range trading [1][24] - Polyolefins: Weak - side range - bound trading [1][25] - Cotton and cotton yarn: Bull - side range - bound trading [1][28] - Apples: Bull - side range - bound trading [1][28] - Red dates: Range - bound trading [1][30] - Hogs: Be cautious about shorting the 05 contract, short on rallies [1][30] - Eggs: If culling does not accelerate, short on rallies for near - term contracts [1][32] - Corn: Bull - side range - bound trading, range - based operations [1][33] - Soybean meal: Short on rallies [1][34] - Oils: Buy on dips [1][34] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical events, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships, leading to different trends in different commodity futures [6][12][33] - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations, cost factors, and market expectations, which determine their investment ratings and price trends [8][14][20] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Finance - Index: Affected by overseas tech stocks and unclear US - Iran situation, it may be under short - term pressure, but long - term is bullish [6] - Treasury bonds: Due to institutional behavior and supply pressure, it is expected to trade in a range [6] 3.2 Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The post - holiday market is weak and stable, with slow demand recovery, suitable for short - term trading [8] - Rebar: With low valuation and weak drive, it is expected to trade in a range, focusing on post - holiday demand recovery [8] - Glass: With supply, inventory, and demand issues, it is expected to trade weakly in a range, with increased post - holiday volatility [9][10] 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Affected by trade policies and supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to trade in a range around 100000 in the short term [12] - Aluminum: Supply is expected to improve, but the market sentiment for non - ferrous metals is still bullish. It is recommended to strengthen observation [13] - Nickel: Affected by the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas, the ore end has strong support, and it is recommended to hold long positions on dips [14][15] - Tin: With tight supply and stable demand in the downstream, it is expected to continue to trade in a range [15] - Gold and silver: Affected by US economic data, trade policies, and geopolitical events, the mid - term price center is expected to move up, and range trading is recommended [15][16] - Lithium carbonate: With supply and demand changes and potential supply disturbances, it is expected to trade in a range [16][17] 3.4 Energy Chemicals - PVC: With weak domestic demand and high inventory, it is in a weak supply - demand situation. However, due to low valuation and potential policy impacts, it is recommended for range trading [17] - Caustic soda: With weak demand support and potential supply - side changes, it is expected to trade in a range at a low level [20] - Soda ash: With increasing supply and inventory pressure, it is recommended to short on rallies [27] - Styrene: It is expected to be bullish in the short term, but supply pressure may increase in March. It is recommended to go long on dips [21] - Rubber: Due to supply - demand contradictions, it is expected to trade in a range [22] - Urea: With supply increases and demand support, it is expected to trade in a range [24] - Methanol: With weak domestic market conditions, it is expected to trade in a range [24] - Polyolefins: With increasing supply pressure and expected improvement in downstream demand, it is expected to trade weakly in a range [25][26] 3.5 Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: With changes in global supply - demand expectations and post - holiday consumption recovery, it is expected to be bullish in a range [28] - Apples: With post - holiday market conditions, it is expected to be bullish in a range [28] - Red dates: The 2025 production season has specific acquisition price ranges, and it is expected to trade in a range [30] 3.6 Agricultural and Livestock - Hogs: In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. For the 05 contract, it is recommended to be cautious about shorting and short on rallies. The long - term price trend depends on production capacity reduction [30] - Eggs: With sufficient supply and weak demand in the short term, if culling does not accelerate, it is recommended to short on rallies for near - term contracts [32] - Corn: With short - term supply - demand games and long - term loose supply - demand patterns, it is recommended for range - based operations [33] - Soybean meal: Affected by external factors and domestic supply - demand, it is recommended to short on rallies [34] - Oils: Affected by various factors, the short - term price is expected to be supported but with limited upside. It is recommended to buy on dips, especially for soybean oil [34][39]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is expected to be weakly volatile [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to buy on dips; aluminum is advised to strengthen observation; nickel is recommended to hold moderately on dips; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][9][10][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda is expected to trade at a low level; soda ash is recommended to short on rallies; polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile [1][15][17][18]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and apples are expected to be strongly volatile; red dates are expected to move sideways [1][23][24][25]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are advised to be cautious about shorting in the 05 contract and short on rallies; eggs are recommended to short on rallies in the near - month contract if the culling does not accelerate; corn is for range trading; soybean meal is recommended to short on rallies; oils are advised to buy on dips [1][25][27][28]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the price trends and investment opportunities of different industries, taking into account factors such as policy changes, inventory levels, and production capacity [1]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Short - term may move sideways, and may be strongly volatile before the Two Sessions. Pay attention to market sentiment towards the Two Sessions. Medium - to long - term is bullish, suggesting buying on dips [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: May move sideways, pay attention to supply pressure [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is generally weak and stable. Short - term trading is recommended [7]. - **Rebar**: On Wednesday, the rebar futures price rebounded. It is expected to move sideways under the background of low valuation and weak driving force. Pay attention to the post - festival demand recovery progress [7]. - **Glass**: Supply has decreased, inventory has accumulated, and demand will be weak in the short term. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and the post - festival volatility will increase [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The supply - demand relationship is tight, and there is still support. After a rapid release of risks, it may stabilize. Pay attention to the post - festival inventory inflection point and macro - sentiment calming [9]. - **Aluminum**: The supply expectation has improved, but the bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous market remains. Strengthen observation [10]. - **Nickel**: Affected by the reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, the ore end has strong support. It is recommended to hold moderately on dips [12]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in rigid procurement. It is expected to continue to trade in a range [12]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as Trump's tariff increase and the Fed's policy, the medium - term price operation center has moved up. Range trading is recommended [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply may increase, and it is expected to continue to trade in a range. Pay attention to the disturbance at the Yichun ore end [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand situation is still weak, but there are opportunities for industrial upgrading. It is expected to trade at a low level. Pay attention to policies, export, inventory, and raw material prices [15]. - **Caustic Soda**: The demand support is weak, and there is inventory pressure. It is expected to trade at a low level. Pay attention to supply - side maintenance and downstream replenishment [17]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, but the supply pressure will increase in March. Pay attention to raw material prices and downstream demand [18]. - **Rubber**: The cost support is enhanced, and the demand is expected to be boosted. It is expected to trade in a range. Pay attention to inventory and downstream开工 rates [19]. - **Urea**: The supply has increased, and the demand is supported. It is expected to move sideways [20]. - **Methanol**: The supply has decreased, and the demand is weak. The inland market is relatively weak [20]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory has accumulated. It is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to downstream demand, inventory, and geopolitical situations [21]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is expected to be high, and the inventory pressure is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies [22]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The consumption expectation has recovered after the festival, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [23]. - **Apples**: The sales in the producing and selling areas are normal. It is expected to be strongly volatile [24]. - **Red Dates**: The acquisition price in the producing area is based on quality. It is expected to move sideways [25]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: In the short term, the price is weakly adjusted. In the medium - to long - term, the supply will gradually tighten. The 05 contract is advised to short on rallies [25]. - **Eggs**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is seasonally weak. If the culling does not accelerate, short on rallies in the near - month contract [27]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the price is expected to move in a range. In the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Range trading is recommended [28]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by factors such as tariffs and supply - demand, it is recommended to short on rallies [29]. - **Oils**: In the short term, there is support below, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - Black building materials: Short-term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; glass is expected to trade weakly [1][7][8] - Non-ferrous metals: Suggest buying copper on dips; strengthen observation for aluminum; moderately hold nickel on dips; range trading for tin, gold, and silver; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][10][13][15] - Energy and chemicals: Range trading for PVC, rubber, urea, and methanol; caustic soda is expected to trade at a low level; short-selling soda ash on rallies; styrene is expected to trade strongly; polyolefins are expected to trade weakly [1][17][19][23] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade strongly; apples and jujubes are expected to trade sideways [1][25][27] - Agricultural and livestock: Be cautious about shorting live pigs in the May contract, and consider shorting on rebounds; if the culling of laying hens does not accelerate, consider shorting near-term egg contracts on rebounds; corn is expected to trade in a range; short-selling soybean meal on rallies; buying edible oils on dips [1][28][29][37] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment suggestions for various futures products based on market analysis and trends, including trading strategies and market outlooks for different industries [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro-finance - Stock indices are expected to trade sideways in the short term and strongly before the Two Sessions. Pay attention to market sentiment towards the Two Sessions. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways, and focus on supply pressure [5] Black building materials - Coking coal market is weak and stable after the Spring Festival. Rebar is expected to trade weakly due to low valuation and weak driving factors. Glass is expected to trade weakly due to supply and demand factors [7][8][9] Non-ferrous metals - Copper supply is tight and demand is resilient. Aluminum supply is expected to improve, but market sentiment remains positive. Nickel is expected to trade strongly due to reduced nickel ore quotas in Indonesia. Tin is expected to trade in a range due to supply and demand factors. Silver and gold are expected to trade in a range due to macroeconomic factors. Lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range due to supply and demand factors [10][11][13][15][17] Energy and chemicals - PVC is expected to trade at a low level due to weak domestic demand and high inventory. Caustic soda is expected to trade at a low level due to weak demand and high inventory. Styrene is expected to trade strongly in the short term due to low inventory and export support. Rubber is expected to trade in a range due to supply and demand factors. Urea is expected to trade in a range due to supply and demand factors. Methanol is expected to trade in a range due to supply and demand factors. Polyolefins are expected to trade weakly due to weak demand and high inventory. Soda ash is expected to be shorted on rallies due to oversupply [17][19][20][21][22][23][25] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade strongly due to improved consumption expectations after the Spring Festival and strong foreign cotton prices. Apples and jujubes are expected to trade sideways [25][27] Agricultural and livestock - Live pigs are expected to bottom out. Be cautious about shorting in the May contract and consider shorting on rebounds. Eggs are expected to rebound at a low level. If the culling of laying hens does not accelerate, consider shorting near-term contracts on rebounds. Corn is expected to trade in a range due to supply and demand factors. Soybean meal is expected to trade at a low level. Short-selling on rallies. Edible oils are expected to open higher after the Spring Festival, and consider buying on dips [28][29][30][32][37]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core Views - **Stock Index**: AI concerns are intensifying, precious metals are strengthening, and the stock index may fluctuate in the short term. It may show a slightly upward trend before the Two Sessions. Market sentiment towards the Two Sessions can be monitored [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is facing significant supply pressure after the holiday. If this pressure can be continuously absorbed, it may dialectically contribute to the continuation of the bond bull market since the beginning of the year. Attention should be paid to supply pressure, and treasury bonds may fluctuate [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions - **Stock Index Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: The four major stock indices fluctuated and faced pressure before the holiday [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the market index may fluctuate [11]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Range - bound fluctuations [11]. - **Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: Treasury bonds showed a slightly upward trend in the pre - holiday period but faced pressure on the last trading day before the holiday [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate [13]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Fluctuating operation [13]. Key Data Tracking - **PMI** - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%. Compared with December last year, it decreased significantly, but it was basically the same as in November last year. Production recovered mainly due to the improvement in the upstream industry, and export orders increased slightly, which may continuously drive the high - tech manufacturing industry. However, there is no obvious improvement in demand, and inventory tends to accumulate. High raw material prices may affect industrial enterprise profitability [19]. - **CPI** - Seasonal factors and the low - base effect are expected to push up the CPI. Four factors will drive the year - on - year central level of CPI to rise in 2026: low base, narrowing decline in pork prices, impact of gold price fluctuations, and expansion of service consumption [22]. - **Imports and Exports** - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of exports unexpectedly rebounded to 6.6%, much higher than the Reuters consensus forecast of 3%. The month - on - month growth rate was 8.3%, higher than the average of the past ten years (5.9%), and the two - year compound growth rate also rebounded to 8.6%. The over - expected export growth in 2025 was due to two cognitive biases in the market. The "One Belt, One Road investment driving foreign trade" cycle may continue in 2026 [25]. - **Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size** - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits continued to decline, with the decline expanding to - 13.1%, reaching the weakest level since September 2024. The year - on - year growth rate of revenue rebounded to - 0.3%. The decline in profit growth was mainly due to the significant drop in profit margins [29]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment** - In 2025, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was - 3.8%, significantly lower than in 2024 and turning negative. It is estimated that the growth rate in December was - 16.0%, with the decline continuing to expand. In December, the growth rates of private investment and public investment were - 17.2% and - 14.3% respectively, both with expanding declines. Among the components, the growth rate of construction and installation projects dropped to - 28.0%, while the growth rates of equipment and tool purchases and other expenses rebounded to 8.7% and 0.3% respectively [32]. - **Social Retail** - In 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail, social retail excluding automobiles, and retail above the quota were 3.7%, 4.4%, and 3.3% respectively, all slightly higher than in 2024. In December, the growth rate of social retail dropped to 0.9%, while the decline in retail above the quota narrowed to - 1.9%. The differentiation was due to weak consumption across channels and reduced drag from durable goods [35]. - **Social Financing** - On February 13, 2026, the central bank announced the financial statistics for January 2026. In January, the new social financing was 7.2 trillion, and the new RMB loans were 4.7 trillion. At the end of January, the year - on - year growth rate of the social financing stock was 8.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 9.0%. The year - on - year increase in social financing was mainly supported by government bonds, undiscounted bills, and foreign currency loans. The year - on - year increase in long - term loans for both residents and enterprises decreased, while the year - on - year increase in short - term loans increased. M1 and M2 both rebounded year - on - year, and non - bank deposits continued to increase. The coordination of monetary and fiscal policies maintained sufficient liquidity [38].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; glass to trade weakly in a range [1][7][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Suggest buying copper on dips; strengthening observation for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1][10][11][13][14][16] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC; low - level rebound for caustic soda; selling short on rallies for soda ash; strong - biased oscillation for styrene; range trading for rubber, urea, methanol; weak - biased oscillation for polyolefins [1][16][18][19][20][21][22][23][24] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Strong - biased oscillation for cotton and cotton yarn; oscillation for apples and jujubes [1][24][26] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Cautious about short - selling the May contract of live pigs, selling short on rallies; selling short on rallies for near - month egg contracts if culling does not accelerate; range trading for corn; short - selling on rallies for soybean meal; buying on dips for oils [1][28][29][30] Core Views - The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It also analyzes the impacts of policies, geopolitical events, and seasonal factors on different futures markets [1][5][8][10] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish, buy on dips. AI concerns boost precious metals, and the market may be strong before the Two Sessions [5] - **Government Bonds**: Oscillation. Despite supply pressure, the bond market may continue the bull market if the pressure can be digested [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable, with slow demand recovery [7][8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The tariff game continues, and the steel price is expected to be weak in the short - term due to low valuation and weak driving forces [8] - **Glass**: Weak - biased oscillation. Supply reduction and demand weakness coexist, and there are potential risks and uncertainties [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Suggest buying on dips. Supply is tight, demand is resilient, and copper remains a strategic resource [10][11] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. Supply is expected to improve, but the bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous market remains [11] - **Nickel**: Suggest buying on dips moderately. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia supports the price [13] - **Tin**: Range trading. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is in a recovery trend [13] - **Silver and Gold**: Range trading. Geopolitical events and economic data affect the prices, and the mid - term price centers are rising [14] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound oscillation. Supply and demand factors coexist, and attention should be paid to the disturbances in Yichun's mining end [16] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. Low valuation, weak domestic demand, and high inventory, but there are potential opportunities from policies and exports [16][18] - **Caustic Soda**: Low - level rebound. Supply pressure is large, and the price may be supported if the market atmosphere of related commodities improves [18] - **Soda Ash**: Selling short on rallies. Supply is excessive, and the price may be under pressure in the short - term [24] - **Styrene**: Strong - biased oscillation. Low inventory during the Spring Festival and export support the price, but supply may increase in March [19][20] - **Rubber**: Range trading. Supply is in the off - season, and demand is expected to support the price [20] - **Urea**: Range trading. Supply increases, and demand is supported by agricultural and industrial needs, with stable prices [21] - **Methanol**: Range trading. Supply decreases, demand is weak, and the market is weak [22][23] - **Polyolefins**: Weak - biased oscillation. Supply is high, demand is weak during the Spring Festival, and inventory accumulates [23] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Strong - biased oscillation. Global cotton supply and demand change, and the price is expected to be strong after the festival [24] - **Apples**: Oscillation. The trading volume of different grades of apples varies in different regions [26] - **Jujubes**: Oscillation. The purchase price of Xinjiang gray jujubes varies by region [26] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: Cautious about short - selling the May contract, selling short on rallies. Short - term price is under pressure, and long - term price depends on capacity reduction [28] - **Eggs**: Selling short on rallies for near - month contracts if culling does not accelerate. Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak after the festival [28] - **Corn**: Range trading. Short - term supply - demand game is intense, and long - term supply is relatively loose [29] - **Soybean Meal**: Short - selling on rallies. Global supply is abundant, and domestic supply is loose from March to June [29][30] - **Oils**: Buying on dips. After the Spring Festival, domestic oils are expected to follow the external market higher, with different performances among varieties [30][31][32][33][34][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefins: Due to intensified geopolitical conflicts, it is expected to experience a relatively strong oscillation. Key factors to monitor include downstream demand, inventory levels, the situations in Venezuela and Iran, and fluctuations in crude oil prices [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic Market Review - On February 13, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6644 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.47%. The average price of LDPE was 8700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57% compared to the previous period. The average price of HDPE was 7375 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6930.56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17%. The South China basis of LLDPE was 286.56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.79%, and the May - September spread was - 65 yuan/ton (-13) [11]. Key Data Tracking - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on February 13, 2026, was 76 yuan/ton (a change of 22 yuan/ton); the 5 - 9 month spread was - 65 yuan/ton (-13); and the 9 - 1 month spread was - 11 yuan/ton (-9) [19]. - **Spot Price**: Provided detailed spot prices of different varieties and regions of plastics on February 13, 2026, with most prices remaining stable [20][21]. - **Cost**: Last week, WTI crude oil closed at 66.31 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.50 US dollars/barrel compared to the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 71.24 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.51 US dollars/barrel. The quoted price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1070 yuan/ton, with no change [23]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of coal - based PE was 123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 191 yuan/ton [28]. - **Supply**: This week, the production start - up rate of polyethylene in China was 87.30%, an increase of 1.39 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly output of polyethylene was 72.39 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.61%. This week's maintenance loss was 7.38 tons, a decrease of 0.48 tons compared to the previous week [32]. - **2026 Production Plan**: Multiple companies have new production capacity planned to be put into operation in 2026, with a total planned production capacity of 550 tons [35]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' polyethylene production lines are under maintenance, and the resumption time of some production lines is uncertain [36]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall start - up rate of domestic agricultural films was 24.74%, a decrease of 5.44% compared to the previous week; the start - up rate of PE packaging films was 20.30%, a decrease of 18.52%; and the start - up rate of PE pipes was 9.33%, a decrease of 14.13% [38]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear films is the highest, accounting for 35.7%, with a difference of 1.7% from the annual average level. The proportion of low - pressure pipes shows a significant difference from the annual average data, currently accounting for 12.6%, with a difference of 3.9% from the annual average level [42]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 51.63 tons, an increase of 3.13 tons compared to the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 6.45% [44]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 9428 lots, with no change compared to the previous week [48]. PP Market Review - On February 13, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6568 yuan/ton, a decrease of 123 yuan/ton compared to the previous weekend, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84% [53]. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: Provided prices and price changes of various PP - related products and other plastics on February 13, 2026 [56][59]. - **Basis**: On February 13, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6640 yuan/ton (no change). The PP basis was 72 yuan/ton (123), and the May - September spread was - 32 yuan/ton (1) [61]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on February 13, 2026, was 13 yuan/ton (a change of 18 yuan/ton); the 5 - 9 month spread was - 25 yuan/ton (7); and the 9 - 1 month spread was 12 yuan/ton (-25) [67]. - **Cost**: Consistent with the cost data of plastics, last week, WTI crude oil closed at 66.31 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.50 US dollars/barrel compared to the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 71.24 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.51 US dollars/barrel. The quoted price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1070 yuan/ton, with no change [70]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 642.23 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.10 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of coal - based PP was - 166.21 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.87 yuan/ton [75]. - **Supply**: This week, the start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 75.93%, a decrease of 0.66 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 77.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.19%. The weekly output of PP powder was 4.63 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.27% [79]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production lines of various enterprises are under maintenance, and the resumption time of some production lines is uncertain [83]. - **Demand**: This week, the average start - up rate of PP downstream industries was 41.78% (-8.06%). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 27.86% (-8.88%), the start - up rate of BOPP was 60.25% (-4.30%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 29.74% (-23.28%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 29.53% (-4.17%) [85]. - **Import and Export Profit**: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was - 379.05 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 27.70 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The export profit was - 32.38 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14.19 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week [91]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 39.12 tons (+5.92%); the inventory of the two major oil companies decreased by 7.30% month - on - month; the inventory of traders decreased by 3.55% month - on - month; and the port inventory increased by 14.44% month - on - month. The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic - weaving enterprises was 495.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41.02%, and the raw material inventory of BOPP was 15.10 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.40% [93][97]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 18679 lots, an increase of 1475 lots compared to the previous week [101].