Report Overview - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: September 15, 2025 [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: Last week's carbonate lithium production increased by 250 tons to 21,000 tons, and August production increased by 7.8% to 92,380 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine will be shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for mineral right transfer review, affecting supply. In Q1, Australian mines achieved cost control, with limited further cost - reduction space. In July 2025, China's lithium ore imports were 751,000 tons, a 30.3% month - on - month increase. The top three import countries were Australia, Nigeria, and South Africa. The import volume of carbonate lithium in July was 14,000 tons, a 22% month - on - month decrease [5]. - Demand side: The overall production schedule in September increased month - on - month, with large battery cell manufacturers' production schedules increasing by 8% month - on - month. In August, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 139.6 GWh, a 4.4% month - on - month increase and a 37.3% year - on - year increase. The total export of power and other batteries was 22.6 GWh, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease but a 23.9% year - on - year increase. Sales were 134.5 GWh, a 5.7% month - on - month increase and a 45.6% year - on - year increase [6]. - Price outlook: It is expected that the import of South American lithium salts will supplement supply. The terminal demand for energy storage is good. The cost center has shifted upward. It is expected that the short - term price of carbonate lithium will be supported, but it will continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the production reduction of upstream enterprises and the production schedules of cathode material factories [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Zhoudu Viewpoint (Weekly Viewpoint) - **Supply situation**: The production volume, mine shutdown, mineral right review, and import volume of lithium ore and carbonate lithium are as described above. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week, and some manufacturers using外购 lithium ore for carbonate lithium production faced cost inversion. Self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises had certain profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. - **Demand situation**: The September production schedule increased, and the production, export, and sales data of power and other batteries in August are as mentioned. The new energy vehicle market in China is expected to be supported by policies [6]. - **Inventory situation**: This week, carbonate lithium inventory showed a destocking state, with factory inventory increasing by 360 tons, market inventory decreasing by 2,663 tons, and futures inventory increasing by 1,994 tons [6]. - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the production reduction of upstream enterprises and the production schedules of cathode material factories [6]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - **Price data**: It includes the historical prices of carbonate lithium (such as Shanghai - colored spot tax - included average price, average price of 99.2% industrial - grade carbonate lithium), lithium spodumene concentrate, and related battery materials like average price of lithium iron phosphate for power use, average price of NCA - type ternary materials [9][18][21]. - **Production data**: It involves the weekly and monthly production of carbonate lithium, the monthly production of power batteries, the production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials in August 2024 (salt lake 21.56%, lithium mica 23.05%, lithium spodumene 43.87%), and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials [5][10][12][25]. - **Import data**: It contains the import volume of lithium spodumene and the import volume of lithium ore from different countries in July 2025 [5][39]. - **Inventory data**: It consists of the weekly and monthly inventory of carbonate lithium, and the inventory of smelters and downstream [14][19][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the weekly situation of the feed and breeding industry, including the markets of pigs, eggs, and corn, and provides corresponding strategy suggestions based on the supply - demand, cost, and other factors of each variety [4][5][6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Feed and Breeding View Summary - **Pigs**: Supply growth suppresses prices, and the futures price can be short - sold on rebounds. In the short term, policy regulation and pre - holiday stocking expectations may support prices, but the large supply will limit the upside. In the long term, the supply before May next year will increase, and prices will still be under pressure [4]. - **Eggs**: The game between supply and demand intensifies, and it is necessary to wait for spot guidance. In the short term, cold - storage eggs may limit price increases, and in the long term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate may slow down [5]. - **Corn**: During the new crop listing period, the futures price rebound is under pressure. Currently, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price may be under seasonal pressure. In the long term, the planting is stable, but the cost support has shifted down [6]. 2. Variety Industry Data Analysis Pigs - **Weekly Market Review**: As of September 12, the national spot price was 13.26 yuan/kg, down 0.46 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of live pigs 2511 was 13255 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 11 - contract was 215 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan/ton from last week [4]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: The average weekly slaughter weight increased, the fat - standard price difference widened, the daily average slaughter rate and slaughter volume decreased first and then increased, the cold - storage inventory rate increased slightly, the pig - grain ratio decreased, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets decreased, and the number of live - pig warehouse receipts decreased [12]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of breeding sows increased steadily from May to November 2024, decreased slightly in December 2024 and January 2025, increased again from May to June 2025, and decreased slightly in July. The production performance improved. The supply of live pigs will increase in the third and fourth quarters, especially after September [15]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For the 11 and 01 contracts, take rolling stop - profit on short positions and add short positions on rebounds. The 05 and 03 contracts are generally weak, and the 03 contract is weaker. The 07 contract is relatively strong. Also, pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [4]. Eggs - **Weekly Market Review**: As of September 12, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.58 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.61 yuan/jin, up 0.35 yuan/jin from last Friday; the futures price of the main 2511 contract was 3040 yuan/500 kg, up 34 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis was 230 yuan/500 kg, up 306 yuan/500 kg from last Friday [5]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: The price of eggs increased, the utilization rate of hatching eggs was stable, the number of culled chickens decreased, the egg - chick price decreased, the production and circulation inventories decreased, and the profit of egg - chicken farming improved [60]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The number of newly - laid hens in September is relatively high, and the number of culled chickens has slowed down. The overall supply is relatively sufficient. In the long term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate may slow down [83]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For non - holders, wait for spot guidance. For short positions, pay attention to the pressure level of 3100 - 3150. The 12 and 01 contracts are mainly in a wide - range shock [83]. Corn - **Weekly Market Review**: As of September 12, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2310 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of the main 2511 contract was 2197 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis was 113 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton from last Friday [6]. - **Fundamental Data Review**: The price of corn in some areas increased, the inventory of old - crop corn was limited, the new - crop corn in some areas of the Northeast was gradually listed, the import volume decreased, the demand for feed and deep - processing was weak, and the inventory decreased [90]. - **Key Data Tracking**: In the next 10 days, precipitation in some areas is expected to be higher than normal, which may have an impact on corn production. The overall growth of new - season corn is suitable, but the cost support has shifted down [100]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For the 11 - contract, wait for rebounds to short - sell, pay attention to the pressure level of 2220 - 2250, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [100].

| | | 本周铜价区间上升走强。美国8月CPI及核心CPI录得增长，但增幅略符合市场预期，而美国当周初请失业金人数大幅增加，8月PPI公布值亦 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 远低于预期，美联储9月降息预期愈发强烈，美元走弱利好铜价。国内，随着旺季的来临，市场仍维持刚需采买，但整体需求有所提升；供 | | | | 高位震荡趋强 | 应端随着高检修期的到来，市场有逐步收紧预期；近期低价进口铜仍带来影响，市场升水依然承压；国内社会库存平稳，LME铜库存继续下 | 逢低持多 | | 铜 | 79500-82500 | 滑且现货贴水较此前收窄。近期市场畏高情绪持续升温，消费难有明显好转，金九消费成色有待验证，不过国内消费复苏的乐观前景叠加9 | 滚动交易 | | | | 月美联储降息的预期，铜价仍有望维持偏强走势。技术面看，伦铜重回万元大关，或有望测试前高，沪铜主力合约仓量双增，整体保持高 | | | | | 位偏强震荡，短期或测试82500关口。 | | | | 高位突破上行 | 几内亚散货矿主流成交价格环比持平于75美元/干吨。几内亚雨季到来，铝土矿开采和运输受到影响，铝 ...

长江期货粕类油脂周报 2025-09-15 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 02 油脂：弱现实强预期，延续高位震荡 豆粕：中美会谈预期下，价格区间运行 目 录 豆粕：中美会谈预期下，价格区间运行 01 01 豆粕：中美会谈预期下，价格区间运行 资料来源：同花顺 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止9月12日，华东现货报价2980元/吨，周度报价上涨10元/吨；M2601合约收盘至3079元/吨，周度上涨12元/吨；基差报价01-110 元/吨，基差价格下跌30元/吨。周度豆粕价格延续区间运行，底部成本支撑下价格下跌有限，但上涨受制于供应充裕以及10月中美领导人会谈， 贸易预期改善，价格冲高回落，短期预计延续区间震荡走势；油厂涨库及下游提货放缓，基差偏弱运行。 ◆ 供应端：USDA9月供需报告上调美豆种植面积至8110万英亩，单产下调至53.5蒲/英亩，结转库存上调至3亿蒲，供需边际转松，但美豆库销比 6.89%，供需收紧趋势不变。巴西今年进入播种阶段， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on the medium to long - term for stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; neutral on government bonds, suggesting holding a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, suggesting range trading; bullish on glass, suggesting buying on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Neutral on copper, suggesting waiting or buying on dips for short - term trading; bullish on aluminum, suggesting buying on dips after a pull - back; neutral on nickel, suggesting waiting or shorting on rallies; neutral on tin, suggesting range trading; neutral on gold and silver, suggesting range trading [1][11][13][18] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins, suggesting range trading; suggesting a short 01 long 05 arbitrage strategy for soda ash [1][22][25][27][30][33][34][37] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, suggesting range trading; neutral on PTA, suggesting range trading; bullish on apples, suggesting a range - bound and upward - biased trend; bearish on jujubes, suggesting a range - bound and downward - biased trend [1][38][39][40][41] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, suggesting shorting on rallies; neutral on corn, suggesting range trading; neutral on soybean meal, suggesting range trading; bullish on oils, suggesting a high - level range - bound trend with a buying - on - dips strategy [1][42][44][47][49][50] Core Views - The global economic and policy environment, including factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decisions, trade policies, and domestic macro - policies, have a significant impact on various futures markets [11][13][18][22][25][37][43][44][47][50][53][54][55] - Seasonal factors, supply - and - demand fundamentals, and cost factors are important considerations for investment decisions in different futures markets [8][10][11][13][18][22][25][31][39][40][43][44][47][49][50][51][52][53][54][55] - Different futures varieties have different investment strategies based on their specific market conditions, such as range trading, buying on dips, shorting on rallies, and arbitrage strategies [1][5][7][8][9][11][13][15][16][18][19][21][22][24][26][28][30][33][34][36][38][39][40][42][44][46][48][50][55] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: A - share markets experienced a pull - back after a rally on Friday. Policy support is positive, and it is recommended to rebalance in high - probability areas. Medium - to long - term outlook is bullish, suggesting buying on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: The bond market is gradually recovering from previous adjustments, but investors remain cautious. A wait - and - see stance is recommended [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Pit - mouth coal price increases have slowed, and the market is in a stalemate. A range - trading strategy is recommended [7][8] - **Rebar**: Futures prices rebounded on Friday. The fundamental supply - and - demand situation is weak in the short term, but traditional demand seasons may bring opportunities. A range - trading strategy is recommended with a focus on support levels [8] - **Glass**: Supply and demand conditions have improved. With the approaching of the traditional peak season and potential positive factors, a buying - on - dips strategy is recommended [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are rising in a range. With weakening of the US dollar and potential consumption recovery, prices are expected to remain strong. A range - trading or buying - on - dips strategy is recommended [11] - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is supported, and the production of aluminum is stable. Demand is entering the peak season, and a buying - on - dips strategy or an arbitrage strategy is recommended [13] - **Nickel**: Supply concerns and macro - factors affect prices. In the short term, prices are affected by the macro - environment, and in the long term, supply is in surplus. A shorting - on - rallies strategy is recommended [18] - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. Prices are expected to be supported. A range - trading strategy is recommended [18][19] - **Gold and Silver**: Due to weakening US economic data and expectations of interest - rate cuts, prices are expected to have support. A range - trading strategy is recommended [19][20][21] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Supply is high, demand is mediocre, and exports face challenges. Prices are expected to be range - bound, and key factors such as macro - data and exports should be monitored [22] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is affected by factors such as spot prices and demand. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and downstream stocking and export conditions should be monitored [25] - **Styrene**: Cost and demand factors influence prices. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and factors such as oil prices and supply - and - demand fundamentals should be monitored [27] - **Rubber**: Overseas raw material prices are falling, and market sentiment is bearish. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and support levels should be monitored [29] - **Urea**: Supply and demand are weak, and inventories are increasing. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies should be monitored [30][31][33] - **Methanol**: Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and prices are expected to be range - bound. Key factors such as coal prices and downstream demand should be monitored [33] - **Polyolefins**: The "Golden September and Silver October" season may boost demand, but supply and cost factors limit price increases. A range - trading strategy is recommended [34][35] - **Soda Ash**: The market is in a tug - of - war between expectations and reality. A short 01 long 05 arbitrage strategy is recommended [37] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Global supply - and - demand conditions are improving, but new - crop production may bring downward pressure. Hedging preparations are recommended [38] - **PTA**: Recent inventory reduction is good, but long - term supply increases and weak oil prices may lead to price drops. A range - trading strategy is recommended [39][40] - **Apples**: Early - maturing apples are priced higher than last year, and the market is expected to be range - bound and upward - biased [40] - **Jujubes**: Consumption is weak, and prices are under pressure. A range - bound and downward - biased trend is expected [41] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Supply is large in the short term, and prices are under pressure. Policy support may bring some rebounds. A short - selling strategy with stop - profit and potential arbitrage opportunities is recommended [42][43][44] - **Eggs**: Short - term supply and demand are balanced, and prices are expected to be range - bound. Attention should be paid to factors such as cold - storage egg releases and chicken culling [44] - **Corn**: New - crop supply and cost factors affect prices. A range - trading strategy and an arbitrage strategy are recommended, and factors such as weather and policies should be monitored [45][46][47] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean prices are expected to be stable, and domestic supply - and - demand conditions are changing. A range - trading strategy is recommended, and key factors such as US - China trade relations should be monitored [48][49][50] - **Oils**: Short - term prices are affected by various factors, but support levels exist. A buying - on - dips strategy and an arbitrage strategy are recommended [50][51][52][53][54][55]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Macro and Industry Resonance, Copper Price Maintains a Bullish Pattern [1] Report Date - September 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to maintain a bullish trend due to the increasing likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, which will weaken the US dollar and benefit the copper price. Domestically, with the arrival of the peak season, the market maintains rigid demand purchases, and overall demand has increased. On the supply side, with the arrival of the high - maintenance period, the market is expected to gradually tighten. Although the consumption is difficult to improve significantly in the short term, the optimistic prospect of domestic consumption recovery and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September are expected to support the copper price [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Supply Side**: As of September 12, the copper concentrate import refining fee was -$41.4/ton, a weekly decrease of $0.9/ton, and the port inventory of domestic copper concentrate was 574,000 tons, slightly increasing from a low level. In August, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1715 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. In September, the electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease month - on - month due to the maintenance peak of smelters and policy impacts [5]. - **Demand Side**: As of September 11, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises dropped to 67.53%, a year - on - year decrease of 14.19 percentage points. The high copper price has inhibited consumption. In August, the operating rates of copper strips, copper tubes, and copper foils were 65.87%, 65.70%, and 78.44% respectively. The copper foil operating rate increased due to strong downstream demand [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 12, the SHFE copper inventory was 94,000 tons, a weekly increase of 14.91%. As of September 11, the domestic copper social inventory was 144,300 tons, a weekly increase of 2.63%. As of September 12, the LME copper inventory was 154,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 2.53%. The global copper inventory increased slightly [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The US economic data increases the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, which is beneficial to the copper price. Domestically, demand has increased, supply is expected to tighten, and the copper price is expected to maintain a bullish trend [6]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro Data Overview**: China's August exports and imports increased year - on - year, CPI decreased year - on - year, PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed, and the new social financing scale and loans increased. The US non - farm employment was revised down by 911,000, and the August CPI was in line with expectations. The European Central Bank maintained interest rates unchanged for the second time [14]. - **Industry News Overview**: The US added copper to the critical minerals list, increasing the possibility of tariff hikes in 2027. Peru's July copper production increased by 2% year - on - year, and Chile's July copper production increased slightly. China's copper concentrate imports increased in August, while the imports of unforged copper and copper products decreased. Freeport suspended mining operations in Indonesia, and Panama plans to evaluate the restart of a copper mine [16]. 3. Futures and Spot Market and Positioning - **Premium and Discount**: The import supply hit the market, causing the premium to decline. The LME copper remained at a discount, but the discount narrowed, and the New York - London copper spread increased slightly [20]. - **Long and Short Positions at Home and Abroad**: As of September 12, the Shanghai copper futures position decreased by 0.15% week - on - week, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 5.01% week - on - week. As of September 5, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions decreased by 13.19% week - on - week. As of September 9, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions increased by 7.93% week - on - week [22]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply Side**: As of September 12, the copper concentrate import refining fee continued to decline, and the port inventory was at a low level. In August, China's electrolytic copper production had a stable growth rate, and it is expected to decrease in September [31]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: As of September 11, the operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises decreased. In August, the operating rates of copper strips, copper tubes, and copper foils showed different trends, with the copper foil operating rate increasing [34]. - **Import and Export**: As of September 12, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic copper first decreased and then increased. In July, China's refined copper imports increased year - on - year, and in August, the imports of unforged copper and copper products increased year - on - year [38]. - **Inventory**: As of September 12, the SHFE copper inventory increased, the domestic copper social inventory increased slightly, and the LME copper inventory decreased slightly, with the global copper inventory increasing slightly [41].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The urea market shows a situation of both supply and demand reduction. The report suggests paying attention to the positive spread trading opportunities. The short - term daily output is lower than the same period last year due to increased maintenance devices and a decline in the start - up rate. Agricultural demand is scattered, the compound fertilizer supply - demand pattern has slightly improved but is still in the seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, and other industrial demands are stable. The production and sales of urea are weak, with enterprise inventories continuously increasing and port inventories slightly decreasing. Temporarily focus on the support level of 1630 - 1650 for the 01 contract, and look for positive spread opportunities after the 1 - 5 spread of urea further weakens [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - The urea market's production and sales weakened, and the weekly price continued to run weakly. On September 12, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1663 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton or 2.39% from the previous week. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1645 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan/ton or 3.18% from the previous week [4][7]. - The urea main - contract basis fluctuated within a narrow range. On September 12, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 18 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 22) - (- 12) yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread of urea weakened. On September 12, the 1 - 5 spread was - 55 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 55) - (- 40) yuan/ton [4][11]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The operating load rate of Chinese urea enterprises was 77.46%, a decrease of 1.67 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 71.33%, an increase of 0.18 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average output of urea was 18.56 tons. It is expected that the daily output will run between 18 - 19 tons next week [4][14]. - **Cost**: The price of anthracite lump coal remained firm. As of September 11, the含税 price of washed small anthracite blocks with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 840 - 900 yuan/ton, and the含税 price of washed anthracite blocks with S1 - 1.5 in Yangquan, Shanxi was 760 - 800 yuan/ton, both remaining stable compared with the previous week's closing price [4][18]. - **Demand** - **Agricultural demand**: Agricultural demand across the country is currently scattered. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 37.82%, an increase of 4.74 percentage points from the previous week, turning from a decline to an increase. The compound fertilizer inventory was 82.62 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons from the previous week. The domestic compound fertilizer finished - product pick - up was poor, and the slow fertilizer - preparation progress restricted the start - up, waiting for a certain relief of the compound fertilizer inventory pressure [4][25]. - **Industrial demand**: The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 53.04%, a decrease of 2.07 percentage points from the previous week, with a weekly output of 2.614 tons. It is expected that the average operating load rate of domestic melamine enterprises will increase next week. The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores increased, and the demand support in the panel market improved slightly [28][29]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventories were 114.6 tons, an increase of 5.2 tons from the previous week, showing continuous inventory accumulation. Urea port inventories were 73.5 tons, a decrease of 6.2 tons from the previous week, with a slight reduction in port inventories. There were 8847 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 17.694 tons [4][32]. Key Points of Concern The report suggests focusing on the start - up situation of compound fertilizer, the reduction and maintenance of urea production devices, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Guinea rainy season has affected bauxite mining and transportation, with a decline in bauxite shipments and uncertainties in the复产 of a large mine, supporting ore prices. The alumina production is in a high - stable state, and the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is increasing steadily. Domestic downstream demand is entering the peak season, and the inventory inflection point is basically determined. The overall idea is to go long on dips, and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [4]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Viewpoint - **Fundamental Analysis**: Guinea bauxite prices are stable at $75 per dry ton. Alumina operating capacity increased by 800,000 tons to 97.55 million tons, and national alumina inventory increased by 71,000 tons to 3.68 million tons. Electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 10,000 tons to 44.409 million tons. The domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate rose by 1% to 61.7%. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased, and the demand for recycled cast aluminum alloy is recovering [4]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see; for Shanghai aluminum, it is recommended to go long on dips; for cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to go long on dips or go long on AD and short on AL [5]. 02. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve, inflation expectations, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, but no specific analysis is provided [7][8] 03. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply is tightening, with stable prices in Shanxi and Henan due to strengthened safety supervision and environmental inspections, as well as frequent rainfall. Guinea bauxite prices are stable, and the bauxite shipping volume is decreasing. From mid - to late September, major mining enterprises and alumina plants will start negotiations on the fourth - quarter long - term contract prices [11]. 04. Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina construction capacity was 114.62 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 97.55 million tons (an increase of 800,000 tons week - on - week), and the operating rate was 85.1%. The domestic spot weighted price was 3,047.5 yuan per ton (a decrease of 53.5 yuan per ton week - on - week). The national alumina inventory was 3.68 million tons (an increase of 71,000 tons week - on - week). Some new production capacities are entering the stable production state, and some roasting furnaces will be under maintenance, but it will not affect the medium - term output [15]. 05. Alumina Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on alumina basis, inventory, north - south price difference, and shipping volume, but no specific analysis is provided [17][18][19] 06. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum construction capacity was 45.232 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), and the operating capacity was 44.409 million tons (an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week). The operating capacity is increasing steadily, with the resumption of production in Guizhou Anshun and the commissioning of Yunnan Aluminum Yixin's replacement capacity basically completed, and the remaining 50,000 - ton capacity of Baise Yinhai's technical renovation project continuing to resume production [22]. 07. Electrolytic Aluminum Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on electrolytic aluminum processing fees, aluminum prices, power coal prices, and aluminum import profits, but no specific analysis is provided [26] 08. Inventory - The report presents historical data on the social inventory of aluminum rods and ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventory, and LME aluminum inventory, but no specific analysis is provided [28][29][30] 09. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises rose by 1.8% to 55.3% week - on - week. Since September, downstream procurement sentiment has slightly improved, but industry operations are still restricted by factors such as insufficient raw material supply and policy uncertainties [33]. 10. Casting Aluminum Alloy Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on aluminum alloy prices, price differences, and import profits, but no specific analysis is provided [36][39][40] 11. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose by 0.4% to 62.1% week - on - week. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises rose by 1% to 54%, with different performances in industrial and construction profiles. The operating rate of aluminum strip leading enterprises remained stable at 68.6%, with differentiated product performance [46]. 12. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises rose by 0.4% to 65.2% week - on - week, supported by existing orders. The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises rose by 1% to 57.6%, with different production performances between large and small enterprises [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips [3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of the traditional peak season, the sales situation in Hubei has improved and continued, and downstream processing plants in North China have resumed work. The overall fundamentals have improved compared to July and August. The gas conversion event in Shahe at the end of September and early October continues to ferment, with positive expectations. Technically, the power of both long and short sides has weakened, and the market fluctuates between 1150 - 1200. Therefore, it is still recommended to buy on dips [3] 3. Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - Main Logic: Last week, the glass futures fluctuated. The daily melting volume remained unchanged, and multiple production lines changed production. The national factory inventory decreased. Affected by the early - week futures price increase and gas conversion rumors in Shahe, middle - stream purchases increased. The overall shipment of factories in Central China was good, and some middlemen made appropriate purchases. The inventory in East and South China continued to decline, and the inventory pressure eased. The engineering orders of processing plants were average, while the home - decoration orders were good. The spot prices of soda ash and glass fluctuated slightly, and the profit improvement was not obvious. In terms of demand, the mid - and downstream carried out phased replenishment, the market trading sentiment warmed up, and some speculative demand drove a slight reduction in factory inventory. The production - sales ratio in some regions increased significantly. There is still pressure on the supply and inventory of soda ash, and the contradiction in soda ash is more prominent compared to glass. Attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity of the price difference between soda ash and glass [3] - Operation Strategy: Buy on dips [3][4] 02 Market Review: Spot Prices Rose Significantly - Spot Price: As of September 12, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,150 yuan/ton (+10) in North China, 1,110 yuan/ton (+20) in Central China, and 1,220 yuan/ton (+20) in East China. - Futures Price: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 1,180 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan for the week [11] 03 Market Review: The Price Difference between Soda Ash and Glass Continued to Narrow - Soda Ash - Glass Price Difference: As of September 12, the futures price of soda ash was 1,290 yuan/ton, and the futures price of glass was 1,180 yuan/ton. The price difference between them was 110 yuan/ton (-3). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 110 yuan/ton (+29). - Contract Price Difference: Last Friday, the 01 - 05 price difference was - 212 yuan/ton (-14) [16] 04 Profit: Spot Price Increase, Gross Margin Improvement - Natural Gas Production Process: Cost was 1,578 yuan/ton (-1), and gross margin was - 358 yuan/ton (+21). - Coal - Gas Production Process: Cost was 1,159 yuan/ton (+4), and gross margin was - 9 yuan/ton (+6). - Petroleum Coke Production Process: Cost was 1,092 yuan/ton (-1), and gross margin was 18 yuan/ton (+21). - Fuel Price: On September 12, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 3.8 yuan/m³, the CIF price of US 3% sulfur shot coke was 165 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 554 yuan/ton [20] 05 Supply: Remained Unchanged - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 159,455 tons/day (0). Currently, there were 225 production lines in operation [22] 06 Inventory: Continued to Decline - As of September 12, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6,158.3 million weight boxes (-146.7). Among them, the inventory in North China was 924.6 million weight boxes (-84.2), in Central China was 622.7 million weight boxes (-47.3), in East China was 1,338.8 million weight boxes (-30.6), in South China was 955.5 million weight boxes (+9.5), in Southwest China was 1,242.4 million weight boxes (+35.4), the factory inventory in Shahe was 247 million weight boxes (-43), and the factory inventory in Hubei was 449 million weight boxes (-28) [26] 07 Deep - Processing: Production - Sales Ratio Increased - Production - Sales Ratio: On September 11, the comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass was 96% (+88%). - LOW - E Glass: On September 12, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 47.1% (-1%). - Order Availability Days: At the beginning of September, the order days of glass deep - processing were 10.4 days (+0.75) [28] 08 Demand: Intense Competition in Automobile Prices, Year - on - Year Increase in Production and Sales - Automobile: In August, China's automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 224,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 323,000 vehicles. The sales volume was 2.857 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 264,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 404,000 vehicles. - New - Energy Automobile: In August, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.101 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 55.2% [39] 09 Demand: Real - Estate Data Declined Year - on - Year - Real - Estate: In July, China's real - estate completion area was 24.6739 million m², a year - on - year decrease of 29%, the new construction area was 48.4168 million m² (-15%), the construction area was 54.0957 million m² (-16%), and the commercial housing sales area was 57.0945 million m² (-8%). - Transaction Area: From September 2 to September 7, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.44 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 31% and a year - on - year decrease of 3%. - Development Investment: In July, the real - estate development investment was 692.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17% [46] 10 Cost - Side - Soda Ash: Futures Price Fluctuated and Adjusted - Spot Price: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,325 yuan/ton (0) in North China, 1,250 yuan/ton (0) in East China, 1,300 yuan/ton (0) in Central China, and 1,450 yuan/ton (0) in South China. - Futures Price: Last Friday, the soda ash 2601 contract closed at 1,290 yuan/ton (-12). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the soda ash Central China 09 contract was 10 yuan/ton (-12) [48][52][53] 11 Cost - Side - Soda Ash: Profit in Loss - Soda Ash Profit: As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - soda production method was 1,276 yuan/ton (-11), and the gross margin was - 36 yuan/ton (+1); the cost of the combined production method was 1,682 yuan/ton (-5), and the gross margin was - 55 yuan/ton (-7). - Other Prices: Last Friday, the market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 1,989 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of wet ammonium chloride from Xuzhou Fengcheng was 310 yuan/ton (0) [55][56][57] 12 Cost - Side - Soda Ash: Production Increased - Soda Ash Production: Last week, the domestic soda ash production of enterprises was 761,100 tons (a month - on - month increase of 9,400 tons), including 421,700 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 10,500 tons) and 339,400 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 1,100 tons). - Loss Volume: The loss volume was 110,900 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 9,400 tons). - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: At the end of last week, the exchange's soda ash warehouse receipts were 6,916 (a month - on - month decrease of 1,268). - Inventory: As of September 12, the national factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7975 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 24,600 tons), including 1.0345 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 37,400 tons) and 763,000 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons) [63][69] 13 Cost - Side - Soda Ash: Apparent Demand Improved - Apparent Consumption: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 459,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,400 tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 326,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,000 tons. - Production - Sales Ratio: Last week, the production - sales ratio of soda ash was 103.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.81%. - Glass Factory Inventory: In August, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 23.6 days [72][77]

Report Information - Report Title: "Black: Fed Rate Cut Imminent, Demand Still Recovering" [1] - Report Date: September 15, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Jiang Yulong [1] Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - The Fed is on the verge of a rate cut, and demand is still in the process of recovery. The black sector showed a divergent trend last week. The iron ore price initially rose significantly but then declined, while coking coal and coke prices strengthened in the second half of the week, and the rebar price fell below the previous week's low. There are expectations of anti - involution policies in the steel industry, and the Fed's rate cut expectation has increased [2][3]. Summary by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector showed a divergent trend last week. The iron ore price was strong, and the coking coal and coke prices were weak. The 01 contract of iron ore reached a new high for the year due to unconfirmed news but then fell back [3][5]. 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The non - ferrous sector was strong, while most other sectors declined [7]. 03 Spot Price - The prices of rebar and coking coal and coke declined, while the prices of hot - rolled coils and iron ore increased [9]. 04 Profit and Valuation - Steel mills' profitability is acceptable, and the valuation of rebar futures is relatively low. The rebar futures price has fallen to near the cost of valley - rate electricity for electric arc furnaces [4][11]. 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel production has slightly declined, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The total inventory of five major steel products and the rebar inventory are presented in the historical data comparison charts [13][14]. 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore shipments have suddenly decreased, and the daily average pig iron output has significantly increased. The daily average pig iron output last week rose to a high level of over 2.4 million tons [4][22]. 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Coking coal production has rebounded from a low level, and the inventory has significantly decreased. Although the coking coal production has increased, it is still far from the high - level, and the total inventory has decreased again [4][25]. 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production has increased, and the total inventory has slightly accumulated. The daily production of coke from 247 steel mills and all coking plants has increased [27][28]. 09 Variety Spreads - The rebar's on - paper profit has decreased, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has widened [30]. 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - The Minister of Industry and Information Technology held a symposium on the "15th Five - Year Plan". China's central bank increased its gold reserves in August. The Fed's rate cut expectation in September has increased due to weak US non - farm employment data. Japan's Prime Minister resigned. OPEC + will increase oil production in October. China's steel exports decreased in August. There were explosions in Qatar. China's PPI and CPI data in August showed certain trends. A coal mine in Heilongjiang has stopped production [37]. Trading Strategies Steel - Buy on dips. For RB2601, pay attention to the support level in the range of [3000 - 3100] [4]. Coking Coal - Trade within the range. For JM2601, pay attention to the range of [1060 - 1230] [4]. Iron Ore - Observe or trade within the range. For I2601, pay attention to the range of [760 - 810] [4].