1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, fluctuating inflation expectations and interest - rate cut expectations, causing a correction in precious metal prices. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept rates unchanged, the US employment situation has slowed, and Powell said changing economic risks give the Fed more reason to cut rates. The Middle East situation has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the market expects one rate cut this year, with the rate - cut expectation turning more hawkish. The US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are rising. The platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and it is expected that the prices of platinum and palladium will have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the Iranian situation and the US February CPI data to be released on Wednesday [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran have led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, fluctuating inflation and interest - rate cut expectations, causing a correction in gold and silver prices. As of last Friday, the US gold closed at $5181 per ounce, down 2.2% for the week, with an upper resistance level at $5350 and a lower support level at $5100. The silver price had a weekly decline of 10.3%, closing at $84.7 per ounce, with a lower support level at $80 and an upper resistance level at $93 [6][9]. 3.2 Weekly View - The war between the US and Iran continues, affecting precious metal prices. The Fed's stance on interest rates, the slowdown in the US employment situation, and the market's expectation of a rate cut this year are factors influencing the precious metal market. The mid - term price centers of gold and silver are rising, and platinum and palladium prices are expected to have support. It is recommended to pay attention to the Iranian situation and the US February CPI data [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rates (10 - year TIPS yield), US Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), yield spreads, Fed balance - sheet size, gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trends [15][17][19]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The US February non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, far lower than the expected 59,000 and the previous value of 130,000; the February unemployment rate was 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.3%; the February ADP employment change was 63,000, higher than the expected 50,000 and the previous value of 22,000 [25]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - US President Trump claimed the right to decide Iran's next leader, and the war between the US, Israel and Iran escalated. The US and Israeli warplanes bombed multiple locations in Iran. Trump said Iran was actively contacting the US to reach an agreement, and the US would take further action to ease the oil market pressure. The US February non - farm payroll report showed a significant decline in employment and a rise in the unemployment rate, raising concerns about the economic outlook [26]. 3.6 Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 7,441.72 kg to 1,028,962.21 kg, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory decreased by 27 kg to 105,033 kg. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 347,942.67 kg to 10,859,659.34 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 50,644 kg to 255,952 kg [13]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of March 3, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 159,891 contracts, a decrease of 2,297 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 22,674 contracts, an increase of 1,951 contracts from last week [13]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday, March 11, at 20:30, the US February CPI annual rate (unadjusted) will be released. On Friday, March 13, at 20:30, the US January PCE price index annual rate will be released [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The conflict between the US and Iran has intensified, causing external markets to generally decline, and stock index futures may face pressure. The bond market may benefit indirectly in the short term if external inflation expectations suppress risk assets, but it could pose a concern in the medium term if inflation becomes a reality. [11][12] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations Stock Index Strategy Recommendations - Stock index trend review: Most stocks rose, with nearly 4,300 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closing higher. [11] - Core view: Geopolitical events such as the change of leadership in Iran, the Israel-Iran conflict, and the "production halt wave" in the Middle East, along with concerns about stagflation in the US, have led to external market declines, and the stock index may face pressure. [11] - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the market index may fluctuate. [11] - Strategy outlook: Range-bound fluctuations. [11] Treasury Bond Strategy Recommendations - Treasury bond trend review: The 30-year main contract rose 0.03%, the 10-year main contract remained flat, the 5-year main contract remained flat, and the 2-year main contract fell 0.01%. [12] - Core view: The market has entered a sideways and low-volatility state, and institutional buying willingness remains. The bond yield is unlikely to rebound significantly. The market will focus on quarter-end institutional behavior and overseas developments. External inflation expectations may indirectly benefit the bond market in the short term but pose a concern in the medium term. [12] - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate. [12] - Strategy outlook: Fluctuating operation. [12] Key Data Tracking PMI - On March 4, 2026, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the manufacturing PMI in February fell to 49.0%. The decline was in line with seasonal patterns, but structural changes need attention, including a significant decline in external demand and an increasing risk of imported inflation. [18] CPI - Seasonal factors and the low base effect are expected to push up the CPI. Four factors will drive the year-on-year central level of CPI to rise in 2026: the low base, the narrowing decline of pork prices, the impact of gold prices, and the expansion of service consumption. [21] Imports and Exports - In December 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of exports unexpectedly rebounded to 6.6%, higher than the market expectation. The month-on-month growth rate was 8.3%, higher than the average of the past ten years. The two-year compound growth rate also rebounded. The overestimation of trade friction and the underestimation of the upward power of the global manufacturing cycle led to the unexpected growth of exports in 2025. The "One Belt, One Road" investment driving foreign trade may continue in 2026. [24] Fixed Asset Investment - In 2025, the growth rate of fixed asset investment was -3.8%, a significant decline from 2024 and turning negative. The estimated growth rate in December was -16.0%, with the decline continuing to widen. Among them, the growth rates of private investment and public investment in December were -17.2% and -14.3% respectively, both with expanding declines. The growth rate of construction and installation projects in December dropped to -28.0%, while the growth rates of equipment and tool purchases and other expenses rebounded to 8.7% and 0.3% respectively. [27] Social Retail - In 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of social retail, social retail excluding automobiles, and above-limit retail were 3.7%, 4.4%, and 3.3% respectively, all slightly rebounding from 2024. In December, the growth rate of social retail fell to 0.9%, while the decline of above-limit retail narrowed to -1.9%. The performance difference was mainly due to the general weakness of consumption channels and the weakening drag of durable goods. [30] Social Financing - On February 13, 2026, the central bank announced that in January 2026, the new social financing was 7.2 trillion yuan, and the new RMB loans were 4.7 trillion yuan. At the end of January, the year-on-year growth rate of the social financing scale stock was 8.2%, and the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 9.0%. The year-on-year increase in social financing was mainly supported by government bonds, undiscounted bills, and foreign currency loans. The year-on-year increases of long-term loans for residents and enterprises were both less, while the year-on-year increases of short-term loans for residents and enterprises were more. The year-on-year growth rates of M1 and M2 both rebounded, and non-bank deposits continued to increase. The coordination of monetary and fiscal policies maintained sufficient liquidity. [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Interval trading or wait - and - see [2] - Aluminum: Buy on dips [2] - Alumina: Short - term trading [2] - Aluminum alloy: Buy on dips [2] - Zinc: Short - term trading or moderately short on rallies [2] - Lead: Interval trading [2] - Nickel: Buy on dips [3] - Stainless steel: Buy on dips [3] - Tin: Interval trading [3] - Industrial silicon: Buy on dips moderately [3] - Polysilicon: Wait - and - see [3] - Lithium carbonate: Wait - and - see [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper price is affected by macro factors and fundamentals. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the consumption expectation needs time to verify. The price is in a high - level range and may adjust, but the adjustment space is limited [2]. - The aluminum market is influenced by factors such as bauxite prices, production capacity changes, and the Middle - East situation. The overall trend is upward, but the impact of the Middle - East situation is two - sided [2]. - The zinc price is under pressure due to continuous inventory build - up and weak downstream consumption, and it may oscillate weakly in the short term [2]. - The lead price is affected by inventory changes, energy demand, and inflation expectations. It is in a low - level weak adjustment and maintains interval trading [2]. - The nickel price is supported by the supply limitation of nickel ore, but the inventory build - up and weak demand limit its upward drive. It is expected to maintain a moderately strong oscillation [3]. - The tin price is in a wide - range oscillation due to the tight supply of tin ore and the recovery of downstream consumption. Attention should be paid to supply and demand changes [3]. - The industrial silicon price rebounds with improved supply - demand expectations, but the rebound height is restricted by the oversupply situation. Polysilicon supply increases while demand is weak, and the price continues to fall [3]. - The lithium carbonate price is in a wide - range oscillation with both supply and demand increasing. Attention should be paid to supply disturbances [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - In the week of 3/2 - 3/8, important economic data were released. For example, the euro - zone's February manufacturing PMI was 50.8, the US February ADP employment increased by 63,000, and the US February non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000 [11][19][21]. - The Chinese government set the 2026 economic growth target at 4.5% - 5% and planned a deficit rate of about 4%. The manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5% [13][14]. - The US - Iran conflict led to a rise in oil prices, increased inflation concerns, and reduced the probability of the Fed's second interest rate cut this year [17]. - The euro - zone's February CPI increased by 1.9% year - on - year, exceeding expectations, and the probability of the ECB's interest rate hike increased [18]. 3.2 Copper - The copper price is in a high - level range and is affected by macro factors such as the US - Iran conflict and inflation expectations. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the consumption expectation needs time to verify [2]. - The global copper inventory is in a high - level range, and the domestic social inventory continues to accumulate significantly [2]. 3.3 Aluminum - The price of domestic bauxite continues to fall, while the price of Guinea's bulk ore increases slightly. The operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increases [2]. - The downstream processing enterprises' start - up rate rises, and the social inventory of aluminum rods shows signs of a turning point [2]. 3.4 Zinc - The zinc concentrate processing fee is at a low level, and domestic smelters resume production seasonally after the Spring Festival. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory continues to accumulate [2]. 3.5 Lead - The LME and COMEX lead inventories decrease slightly, while the SHFE lead inventory increases slightly. The upstream and downstream demand shows different trends [2]. - The lead price is affected by energy demand and inflation expectations, and it is in a low - level weak adjustment [2]. 3.6 Nickel - The nickel ore supply is tight, and the price is strong. The refined nickel production in March increases significantly, and the inventory accumulates [3]. - The nickel iron price is expected to rise with the resumption of steel mills' production, and the stainless steel price and production increase [3]. 3.7 Tin - The tin production in February is expected to be 17,000 tons. The import of tin concentrate and the export of refined tin show different trends [3]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and the tin price is in a wide - range oscillation [3]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon production increases slightly, and the inventory decreases. The polysilicon production increases, and the inventory accumulates [3]. - The industrial silicon price rebounds, but the polysilicon price continues to fall [3]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - The production of lithium carbonate in February decreases, and the import shows different trends. The demand is strong, and the inventory continues to decline [3]. - The lithium carbonate price is in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and selling on rallies for glass [1][7][9][10] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term range trading for copper, suggesting more observation for aluminum, moderately holding long positions on dips for nickel, range trading for tin, and expecting gold, silver, and lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][13][16][18][19][20][21][22] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be slightly bullish; selling on rallies for soda ash; rubber is recommended to be bought on dips without chasing highs; urea and methanol are for range trading [1][24][26][27][29][30][31][32][34] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, as well as apples, are expected to be slightly bullish; jujubes are expected to trade in a range [1][35][37][38] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: For live pigs, a bearish rolling strategy for the 05 contract, cautiously bullish for the 07 and 09 contracts; for eggs, waiting for rallies to short the near - term contracts; being cautious about chasing highs for corn at high levels; shorting soybean meal on rallies; oils are expected to be slightly bullish, with a strategy of rolling long on soybean and palm oils [1][40][41][42][43] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical events such as the conflict between the US and Iran and the situation in the Middle East have a significant impact on the futures market, affecting prices through factors like inflation expectations, energy prices, and supply disruptions [5][14][20][21][24][26][28][43][44][46][47] - The supply and demand fundamentals of each commodity play a crucial role in price trends, including factors such as production capacity, inventory levels, and downstream demand [8][9][11][14][16][18][23][24][30][31][33][35][40][41][42][43][44][45][46] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Pressured in the short term due to geopolitical events, but bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range. External inflation expectations have a complex impact on the bond market [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market is weak and stable after the Spring Festival. Short - term trading is recommended as the downstream demand recovery is slow [7][8] - **Rebar**: Currently in the inventory accumulation period. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, with range trading recommended [9] - **Glass**: The fundamentals are poor, but the futures price has attracted bottom - fishing funds. It is recommended to sell on rallies [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is in a high - level range. Short - term range trading or observation is recommended, closely monitoring geopolitical factors, economic recession expectations, and inventory changes [13][14] - **Aluminum**: The supply and demand situation is complex. It is recommended to strengthen observation as the price is affected by geopolitics and inventory pressure [16] - **Nickel**: Affected by the reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, it is expected to be relatively strong. Buying on dips is recommended [18] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the demand is stable. Range trading is recommended, paying attention to supply and demand changes [19] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by geopolitical events and inflation expectations, they are expected to trade in a range. Observation and cautious trading are recommended [20][21] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand are both increasing. It is expected to continue to trade in a range, paying attention to supply - side disturbances [23] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply and demand are currently weak, but it may be slightly bullish in the short term due to factors such as export tax rebates. Range trading within the rising channel is recommended [24][25] - **Caustic Soda**: It has rebounded strongly at a low valuation due to geopolitical factors. Short - term bullishness is expected, but chasing highs should be cautious [26] - **Styrene**: It is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term due to cost support and inventory transfer. Buying on dips without chasing highs is recommended [27][28] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to be bullish due to cost support and improved supply - demand. Key factors to watch include downstream demand and crude oil prices [29] - **Rubber**: It is in a game between cost support and inventory pressure, expected to be slightly bullish. Buying on dips without chasing highs is recommended [30] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is gradually releasing. Range trading is recommended [31] - **Methanol**: It may face supply shortages due to the situation in Iran, expected to be slightly bullish. Range trading is recommended [32][33] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is excessive, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Selling on rallies is recommended [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand situation has changed. The price is expected to be slightly bullish after the festival [35][36] - **Apples**: The transaction is stable, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [37] - **Jujubes**: Expected to trade in a range [38] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The supply is loose in the short term, and the price is expected to bottom out. A bearish rolling strategy for the 05 contract and cautious bullishness for the 07 and 09 contracts are recommended [40] - **Eggs**: The supply is still abundant. Waiting for rallies to short the near - term contracts is recommended [41] - **Corn**: The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, but chasing highs should be cautious. Range trading is recommended [42] - **Soybean Meal**: The price is expected to follow the trend of US soybeans. Shorting on rallies is recommended [42] - **Oils**: Expected to be slightly bullish, with a strategy of rolling long on soybean and palm oils recommended [43][47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Pig Market**: The supply pressure remains high, and the futures price is under pressure. In the short term, the pig price will continue to fluctuate at the bottom. In the medium to long term, the supply from July to October will gradually tighten, but the price increase is limited [6][57]. - **Egg Market**: The supply pressure persists, and the rebound of the futures price is restricted. In the short term, the egg price increase is limited, and in the medium to long term, the supply pressure needs time to clear [8][82]. - **Corn Market**: The tight supply - demand situation supports the price, and the futures price fluctuates at a high level. In the short term, the price is strong, while in the medium to long term, the price increase space is restricted, and there may be a phased correction risk [8][112]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Feed and Livestock View Summary - **Pig**: The supply pressure remains, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom. The supply in 2026 is generally loose, with high pressure in the first half of the year and a marginal decrease in supply from July to October. The short - term pig price is under pressure, and the medium - to - long - term price increase is limited [6][57]. - **Egg**: The supply pressure remains, and the futures price rebound is restricted. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the supply pressure needs time to clear. The short - term egg price increase is limited [8][82]. - **Corn**: The supply - demand is tight, supporting the price, and the futures price fluctuates at a high level. The short - term price is strong, and the medium - to - long - term price increase space is restricted [8][112]. 3.2 Variety Industry Data Analysis 3.2.1 Pig - **Spot and Futures**: As of March 6, the national spot price was 10.29 yuan/kg, down 0.51 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of 2605 was 11160 yuan/ton, down 325 yuan/ton from last week. The futures price followed the spot price to fluctuate and decline, and the basis weakened [6][57]. - **Supply**: In 2025, the production capacity in December was above the normal level, and the production capacity reduction slowed down in January 2026. The supply in 2026 is generally loose, with high pressure in the first half of the year and a marginal decrease in supply from July to October. The planned slaughter in March increased, the average slaughter weight continued to rise slightly, and the secondary fattening volume increased [6][57]. - **Demand**: The slaughter rate and volume increased slightly, but it was the off - season, and the fresh - sales rate decreased slightly. The slaughter enterprises were in a loss state, and the frozen - product storage rate increased [6][57]. - **Cost**: The price of piglets decreased slightly, the price of sows was stable, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets increased losses, and the cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs decreased [6][57]. - **Weekly Summary**: In March, the supply exceeded demand, and the pig price was under pressure. In the short term, it continued to fluctuate at the bottom. In the medium to long term, the supply from July to October would gradually tighten, but the price increase was limited [6][57]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The near - term contracts are weak, and the far - term contracts are strong. Wait for the rebound of 05 and 07 to go short; be cautious about shorting 09; before the production capacity is effectively reduced, breeding enterprises can hedge at high prices for 11 and 01 [6][57]. 3.2.2 Egg - **Spot and Futures**: As of March 6, the average price in the main production areas was 2.95 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from last Friday. The futures price of 2605 was 3389 yuan/500 kg, down 40 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis weakened [8][82]. - **Supply**: The inventory of laying hens was at a high level, the supply base was high, and the number of newly - laid hens was stable. The number of old hens slaughtered increased, but the number of hens available for slaughter was small, and the supply pressure was difficult to relieve quickly [8][82]. - **Demand**: After the festival, the demand for eggs increased significantly, but there was no new positive support in the future, and the increase was limited. The inventory in each link decreased, but the inventory in the circulation link was still at a high level [8][82]. - **Weekly Summary**: The inventory of laying hens remained at a high level. The short - term egg price increase was limited, and in the medium to long term, the supply pressure needed time to clear [8][82]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short term, beware of the callback risk after the demand is overdrawn, and do not chase the high. In the medium to long term, focus on the production capacity clearance rhythm and the actual demand recovery, and then make a layout when the supply - demand pattern improves [8][82]. 3.2.3 Corn - **Spot and Futures**: As of March 6, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2405 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from last Friday; the futures price of 2605 was 2393 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis strengthened [88][112]. - **Supply**: The supply was tight. The snow and rain in North China affected the farmers' willingness to sell, and the sales progress in Northeast and North China was slower than last year. The inventory in the four northern ports decreased slightly, and the market circulation grain was tight [8][112]. - **Demand**: The demand of deep - processing enterprises was strong, and the inventory was at a low level, with urgent replenishment needs. Feed enterprises were cautious in purchasing, mainly consuming existing inventory and increasing the use of substitutes [8][112]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short term, the tight supply - demand supported the price to run strongly. In the medium to long term, the supply was expected to increase, the demand was weak, and the price increase space was restricted [8][112]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short term, go long at a low position lightly, and do not chase the high. In the medium to long term, take profits gradually at high prices and beware of the callback risk [8][112].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the black sector oscillated and rose, with raw materials outperforming finished products. The futures market was bullish due to the Middle - East conflict, and the domestic macro - policy had a neutral impact on the market. Steel demand slowly recovered, and inventory was still accumulating. Raw material inventories showed different trends, and iron ore prices strengthened significantly [3]. - Steel, coking coal, and iron ore are all expected to oscillate strongly. Steel is in the inventory - accumulation cycle, and it is expected that inventory will start to decline in the fourth week after the Spring Festival. Coking coal inventory is structurally differentiated, and coke production is at a low level with profits decreasing. Iron ore may have a phased inventory reduction, and the short - term driver is the restricted circulation of some varieties [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - Last week, the black sector oscillated and rose, with raw materials performing better than finished products [3][5] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the energy and chemical sector in the futures market rose sharply [3][7] 03 Spot Price - The first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and iron ore prices strengthened significantly [9] 04 Profit and Valuation - Steel mill profits deteriorated, and the valuation of rebar futures was low, being below the electric - arc furnace off - peak electricity cost [4][11] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel demand slowly recovered, but inventory was still accumulating. It is expected that inventory will start to decline in the fourth week after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the progress of demand recovery [4][13] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Affected by production restrictions in North China, the molten iron output dropped significantly last week. Steel mill iron ore inventories decreased, and port inventories increased slightly. Iron ore shipments have recovered to a relatively high level, but the arrival volume in March is expected to be low, and iron ore may have a phased inventory reduction [4][22] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The raw coal output increased last week but was still at a low level. The total coking coal inventory continued to decline, with upstream mines accumulating inventory and downstream coking plants reducing inventory [4][25] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production hovered at a low level last week, and inventory accumulated in the middle and upstream. After the first round of price cuts, coke enterprise profits decreased [4][27] 09 Variety Spreads - Steel mill's on - paper profits decreased, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar narrowed [29] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - The government work report set GDP growth at 4.5% - 5%, CPI increase at about 2%, urban survey unemployment rate at about 5.5%, and planned to create over 12 million new urban jobs. The deficit rate is planned to be about 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous year. Local government special bonds of 4.4 trillion yuan are planned, and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds of 1.3 trillion yuan will be issued [35] - As of March 7, 2026, the Middle - East conflict has entered its eighth day, and the situation continues to escalate [35] - China's manufacturing PMI in February was 49.0%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [35] - 95% of coal - fired power generation capacity, 90% of steel production capacity, 360 million tons of coking capacity, and 470 million tons of cement clinker capacity in China have completed ultra - low emission transformation [35] - The net reduction of non - farm employment in the US in February was 92,000, far lower than the market expectation of an increase of about 55,000 - 60,000. The unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.4% [35] - As of the week ending February 28, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 213,000, lower than the market expectation of 215,000 [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Urea's near - end demand is gradually being released, and the basis is strengthening. The urea 05 contract is expected to trade in the range of 1800 - 1900 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand from agriculture and some industries is showing positive trends [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Changes - Urea's futures price weakened, with the closing price of the urea 2605 contract on March 6th at 1830 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton or 0.92% from last week. The spot price in the Henan market increased by 10 yuan/ton or 0.55% to 1821 yuan/ton [2][5]. - The basis of the urea main contract strengthened, with the main basis in the Henan market on March 6th at - 9 yuan/ton, and the weekly basis range from - 9 to 19 yuan/ton, approaching the flat - water state. The 5 - 9 spread of urea weakened, with the 5 - 9 spread on March 6th at - 13 yuan/ton, and the weekly range from - 15 to 25 yuan/ton [2][9]. Fundamental Changes Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 93.62%, an increase of 2.26 percentage points from last week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 84.53%, an increase of 2.73 percentage points. The daily urea output was 21.97 tons. There are expectations of supply increase in the future [2][12]. Cost and Profit - The anthracite coal market had mainly rigid demand, and coal prices fluctuated slightly. As of March 5th, the tax - included price of anthracite washed small lumps in Jincheng, Shanxi was 880 - 930 yuan/ton, and that in Yangquan, Shanxi was 780 - 840 yuan/ton, with the price center remaining the same as last week. The mainstream urea price increased, and the urea production profit recovered [2][16]. Demand - Agricultural demand: As the spring plowing approaches, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation continues to follow up. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 37.02%, an increase of 3.61 percentage points from last week, and the inventory decreased by 2.29 percentage points. The demand in the compound fertilizer market is gradually being released [2][18][22]. - Industrial demand: The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 49.4%, a decrease of 6.19 percentage points from last week. The demand support from the panel market weakened [2][25][26]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 870,000 tons, a decrease of 52,000 tons from last week and 396,000 tons less than the same period last year. Urea port inventory was 264,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from last week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 2,860, equivalent to 57,200 tons, an increase of 1,031 receipts or 20,620 tons compared to the same period last year [2][29]. Key Points to Watch - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer, urea plant production reduction and maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of shorting on rallies for the glass industry [2] Core Viewpoints - Despite the lack of positive fundamental improvements, the glass futures price declined to a previous low, leading to strong bottom - fishing sentiment among funds. However, considering the poor fundamentals, the upside potential of glass is expected to be limited, and opportunities to short on rallies or sell call options should be monitored [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Investment Strategy - The main strategy is to short on rallies. The reasons are that the glass fundamentals are still poor, with increased supply, rising inventory, delayed downstream start - up, and cost - related pressures. Although there are factors such as the cost increase of fuels due to the US - Iran conflict, the overall situation does not support a significant price increase [2] Market Review - Price - As of March 6, the 5mm float glass market price was 1,050 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,090 yuan/ton (-20 yuan/ton) in Central China, and 1,230 yuan/ton (-20 yuan/ton) in East China. The glass 05 contract closed at 1,087 yuan/ton last Friday, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous week [10] Market Review - Basis and Spread - Last Friday, the glass 05 contract basis was -27 yuan/ton (-30 yuan/ton), and the 05 - 09 spread was -107 yuan/ton (-3 yuan/ton). As of March 6, the difference between the soda ash futures price (1,242 yuan/ton) and the glass futures price (1,087 yuan/ton) was 155 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton [11][15] Profit - For the natural gas - based process, the cost was 1,568 yuan/ton (+2 yuan/ton), and the gross profit was -338 yuan/ton (-22 yuan/ton). For the coal - gas - based process, the cost was 1,174 yuan/ton (+3 yuan/ton), and the gross profit was -124 yuan/ton (-3 yuan/ton). For the petroleum coke - based process, the cost was 1,094 yuan/ton (-13 yuan/ton), and the gross profit was -4 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton) [19] Supply - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 148,335 tons/day (+1,200 tons/day), and there were 210 production lines in operation. There were also various changes in production lines such as cold repairs, restarts, new ignitions, and product conversions [21][23] Inventory - As of March 6, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 79.637 million weight boxes. The inventory in North China was 13.986 million weight boxes (+548,000 weight boxes), in Central China was 10.12 million weight boxes (+565,000 weight boxes), in East China was 14.461 million weight boxes (+521,000 weight boxes), in South China was 10.566 million weight boxes (+600,000 weight boxes), in Southwest China was 13.95 million weight boxes (+300,000 weight boxes), the inventory in Shahe factories was 4.74 million weight boxes (+240,000 weight boxes), and in Hubei factories was 7.05 million weight boxes (+760,000 weight boxes) [25] Deep - processing - On March 5, the comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass was 95% (+18%). On March 6, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 33.7% (+14.4%). At the beginning of February, the order days of glass deep - processing were 6.35 days (-2.95 days) [31] Demand - Automotive - In January, China's automobile production was 2.45 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 846,000 units and a year - on - year decrease of 0 units; the sales volume was 2.346 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 926,000 units and a year - on - year decrease of 77,000 units. The retail volume of new energy passenger cars in January was 596,000 units, with a penetration rate of 38.6% [34][35] Demand - Real Estate - In December, China's real estate completion area was 208.94 million m², a year - on - year decrease of 18%; the new construction area was 53.13 million m² (-19%); the construction area was 38.24 million m² (-47%); the commercial housing sales area was 94 million m² (-17%). From February 26 to March 1, the total commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.42 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 1,651% and a year - on - year decrease of 38%. In December, the real estate development investment was 419.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 37% [49] Cost - Soda Ash - Price - As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,260 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,235 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1,225 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1,375 yuan/ton (unchanged) in South China. Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,242 yuan/ton (+48 yuan/ton), and the basis of soda ash in Central China for the 05 contract was -17 yuan/ton (-48 yuan/ton) [51][53] Cost - Soda Ash - Profit - As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1,315 yuan/ton (+8 yuan/ton), and the gross profit was -83 yuan/ton (+8 yuan/ton); the cost of the joint production process was 1,658 yuan/ton (+23 yuan/ton), and the gross profit was -3 yuan/ton (-1 yuan/ton). The market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 2,014 yuan/ton (-11 yuan/ton), and the ex - factory price of wet ammonium chloride from Xuzhou Fengcheng was 400 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton) [57][58] Cost - Soda Ash - Inventory - Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 807,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 16,100 tons), including 432,300 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 9,300 tons) and 374,700 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 6,800 tons). The loss volume was 123,200 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 15,400 tons). At the end of last week, the exchange soda ash warehouse receipts were 3,320 pieces (a week - on - week increase of 396 pieces). As of March 6, the national factory inventory of soda ash was 1.9472 million tons (a week - on - week increase of 52,800 tons), including 919,900 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 24,000 tons) and 1.0273 million tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 28,800 tons) [68] Cost - Soda Ash - Apparent Demand - Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 408,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,500 tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 345,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,600 tons. The production - sales ratio of soda ash last week was 93.32%, a week - on - week increase of 32.2%. In January, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 23.9 days [72][77]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On February 28, 2026, China's Ministry of Commerce announced the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed that started on September 9, 2024, imposing a 5.9% anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed from March 1, 2026, for 5 years. After the result, the comprehensive tax rate dropped to 14.9%, reopening the trade channel between China and Canada [1][4]. - In the short term, the reduction in import tariffs on Canadian rapeseed did not exceed market expectations, and the decline in domestic rapeseed import profit limited new purchases. The short - term negative impact on the domestic rapeseed industry was relatively limited. Currently, the market focuses on the positive factors of rising crude oil and tight supply - demand of rapeseed products, and domestic rapeseed oil fluctuates strongly at a high level. However, after the tax reduction, rapeseed purchased in January - February can be processed, and the supply - demand of rapeseed products will loosen in March, suppressing the increase of rapeseed oil prices [2][12]. - In the medium - to - long term, from March to May is the peak period for imported rapeseed to arrive in China. The inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed oil has turned upward and will continue to increase. In the second quarter, the supply - demand of rapeseed oil will loosen significantly. With the record - high harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the increasing production season of Southeast Asian palm oil, the supply of oils at home and abroad will increase. The easing of the Middle East situation may weaken the driving force of international crude oil on oils. Domestic rapeseed oil faces the risk of high - level adjustment, but there is bottom support, and the overall trend is wide - range oscillation [2][12]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Anti - Dumping Investigation Results - The investigation authority determined that Canadian rapeseed was dumped in China, harming the domestic rapeseed industry. A 5.9% anti - dumping duty was imposed from March 1, 2026, for 5 years. Companies that paid a 75.8% deposit from August 14 to December 31, 2025, will get the remaining deposit back after deducting the anti - dumping duty [4]. 2. Comparison of Tax Rates Before and After the Final Result - Before the final result, the comprehensive tax rate for importing Canadian rapeseed was 84.8% (9% tariff + 75.8% deposit), severely suppressing purchases. After the result, the comprehensive tax rate is 14.9% (9% tariff + 5.9% anti - dumping duty), which is within an acceptable range [1][6]. 3. Impact on Import Profit and Purchases - The market's early anticipation of improved China - Canada relations led to a sharp increase in ICE rapeseed futures prices and premiums from January to February, causing the domestic import profit of Canadian rapeseed to deteriorate rapidly. For example, the March - shipment rapeseed's disk profit on January 5 was 608 yuan/ton, but the May - shipment rapeseed's disk profit on March 5 dropped to - 141 yuan/ton. Currently, the loss in disk profit restrains short - term purchases [7]. 4. Changes in Rapeseed Supply and Demand - In the 2025/2026 season, the global rapeseed supply increased due to a bumper harvest, but demand was weak. The global rapeseed ending inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio increased year - on - year, with the inventory - to - sales ratio of 10.94% being the highest in the past five years. Canadian rapeseed's demand was suppressed due to export restrictions to China, and its inventory - to - sales ratio increased by 5.64% year - on - year to 17.65%, the second - highest in the past five years. After the tax reduction, the difference in rapeseed supply - demand between China and foreign countries will gradually narrow [9]. 5. Rapeseed Arrival Forecast - Chinese traders purchased about 650,000 tons of Canadian rapeseed in mid - January, which is expected to arrive in China from March to May. The estimated rapeseed arrivals from March to May are 195,000, 260,000, and 325,000 tons respectively, an increase compared to January - February. The inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in China has started to increase, and the supply pressure will improve the current tight supply - demand situation [10]. 6. Potential Impact of Australian Rapeseed - There are market rumors that China is considering opening commercial purchases of Australian rapeseed. If implemented, the source of domestic rapeseed supply will be further expanded [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a sideways pattern [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; shorting May and going long September for glass [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term range trading for copper, with a focus on 98,000 - 106,000; strengthening observation for aluminum; moderately holding long positions on dips for nickel; range trading for tin; bullish sideways movement for gold and silver; range - bound movement for lithium carbonate [1][13][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Bullish sideways movement for PVC and caustic soda; shorting on rallies for soda ash; going long on dips but not chasing highs for styrene and rubber; range trading for urea and methanol; bullish sideways movement for polyolefins [1][25][28] - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Bullish sideways movement for cotton and cotton yarn; bullish sideways movement for apples; sideways movement for red dates [1][39][41] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Cautiously shorting on rallies for the May contract of live pigs, bullish with caution for the July and September contracts; shorting on rallies for near - month egg contracts; range trading for corn; shorting on rallies for soybean meal; bullish sideways movement for oils, suggesting going long on soybean and palm oils on dips [1][43][45] Core Views - The report provides trading strategies and market outlooks for various futures products across different industries. Geopolitical events, supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - economic policies are key factors influencing the market trends of these futures products. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Expected to be under pressure in the short term due to external market declines and geopolitical events, but bullish in the medium to long term, with a recommendation to buy on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: Lacking a clear trading theme, with the market waiting for more guidance from important meetings, expected to move in a sideways pattern [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The post - Spring Festival market is generally weak and stable, with tepid trading. Downstream demand recovery is slow, and short - term trading is recommended [7][8] - **Rebar**: The price is expected to move sideways. The current valuation is low, but the driving force is weak. Attention should be paid to the post - festival demand recovery [9] - **Glass**: The market is weak in the short term, with a recommendation to short the May contract and go long the September contract. The fundamentals are deteriorating, and there is a pattern of weak reality and strong expectations [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to be strongly bullish in the long term, supported by new energy, power, and AI computing power demand. In the short term, it is recommended to trade within the range of 98,000 - 106,000, while closely monitoring geopolitical events, economic recession expectations, and inventory changes [13][14] - **Aluminum**: The supply expectation is improving, but the inventory pressure is large. The market trading logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to strengthen observation [15][16] - **Nickel**: Affected by the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas, the ore end has strong support, and it is recommended to moderately hold long positions on dips [17][18] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in a state of rigid procurement. It is expected to continue a bullish sideways movement, and range trading is recommended [19] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by geopolitical events and the weakening of the US economy, the prices are expected to continue a bullish sideways movement. It is recommended to build long positions on dips after sufficient price corrections [20][21][22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply disruptions may occur, and the price is expected to continue a bullish sideways movement. Attention should be paid to the export ban in Zimbabwe and the mining end disturbances in Yichun [23][24] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The current supply - demand situation is weak, but there are opportunities for short - term bullish sideways movement due to factors such as low valuation and export tax rebates. It is recommended to trade within the rising channel [25] - **Caustic Soda**: Supported by export growth expectations and spring maintenance, it is expected to have a strong rebound at a low valuation. Caution is advised when chasing the rise [28] - **Styrene**: Supported by cost and export, it is expected to move in a bullish sideways pattern. It is recommended to go long on dips but not chase highs [29][30] - **Polyolefins**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the cost support is strengthened, and it is expected to move in a bullish sideways pattern. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, inventory, and the Iranian situation [31] - **Rubber**: In a state of short - term game, it is expected to move in a bullish sideways pattern. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and it is advisable to reduce positions or observe on rallies [32] - **Urea**: In a pattern of increasing supply and demand after the Spring Festival, the price is expected to be generally bullish in March, but may face pressure in the middle and late March to April. Attention should be paid to the Iranian situation [34][35] - **Methanol**: Affected by the Iranian situation, there may be a supply gap in the short term, pushing up the price. The supply and demand are in a state of high utilization rate, and it is recommended to trade within the range [36][37] - **Soda Ash**: With the increase in supply and inventory pressure, the price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [38] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Based on the global cotton supply - demand forecast, the price is expected to move in a bullish sideways pattern after the festival due to the recovery of consumption expectations and the strength of foreign cotton [39] - **Apples**: The trading is generally stable, with some price stability and a slightly tepid trading atmosphere. The price is expected to move in a bullish sideways pattern [41] - **Red Dates**: The acquisition price in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the price is expected to move sideways [42] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The short - term price is expected to continue to bottom out in a sideways pattern. The May contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies, while the July and September contracts can be bullish with caution [43][44] - **Eggs**: The current supply is sufficient, and the market is in a long - term grinding bottom stage. It is recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies [45] - **Corn**: The short - term price is expected to move in a bullish sideways pattern, but the long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing highs at high levels [46] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price is expected to follow the movement of US soybeans. It is recommended to short on rallies [47][48] - **Oils**: The price is expected to move in a bullish sideways pattern following international crude oil. It is recommended to go long on soybean and palm oils on dips [49][53]