1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly; iron ore prices face certain downward pressure; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate; and glass prices will continue to fluctuate weakly with increased post - holiday volatility [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Variety Steel - During the long holiday, the price of Tangshan Qian'an common billet remained stable at 2,900 yuan/ton. The US tariff policy first cut 20% and then added 15%, reducing the tariff burden on Chinese goods exported to the US, but the US will still maintain high tariff barriers on the steel industry. The futures price of rebar has fallen below the cost of electric furnace off - peak electricity and long - process production, with a low static valuation. In the short term, the domestic market is in a policy vacuum, and overseas tariff policies have limited boosting effects. After the holiday, focus on the increase in steel inventories and the progress of demand recovery. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Iron Ore - During the long holiday, the Singapore Exchange iron ore swap fell slightly, with the main contract down 1.39% compared to the pre - holiday domestic closing period. Before the holiday, the daily average pig iron output rose to 230,490 tons, and port iron ore inventories are at a historical high, while steel mills' iron ore inventories have been replenished to normal levels in recent years. The post - holiday trading core lies in steel demand, which will affect the resumption of production by steel mills and the iron ore shipping situation. Iron ore prices are expected to face downward pressure [2][3] Coking Coal and Coke - During the Spring Festival, the de - stocking efficiency of imported coking coal spot resources was average, and the prices of forward Australian and Canadian coking coal declined due to the contraction of overseas demand before the year. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal was suspended during the Spring Festival, and the port coking coal inventory was digested but remained at a high level. After the holiday, steel mills and coking plants will mainly digest their in - plant inventories. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [3] Glass - Before the holiday, some small production lines were cold - repaired and shut down, with the daily melting volume falling below 150,000 tons. The upstream manufacturers' inventories accumulated rapidly, and the downstream demand will be temporarily sluggish after the holiday. There are risks such as the expected large - scale cold repair of production lines and the impact of Hubei's environmental protection policy on supply. Although there is still pressure on glass prices, the futures price has fallen to a relatively low level. The 05 main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly with increased post - holiday volatility [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting treasury bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; buying on dips for glass [1][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Reducing trading positions for general traders before the holiday for copper, increasing hedging coverage; strengthening observation for aluminum; observing for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver; expecting lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][9] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporarily observing for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to trade weakly [1][15] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range; expecting apples and jujubes to trade in a range [1][25] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Partially taking profits on short positions in hogs before the year, adopting a rolling short strategy on rebounds; reducing positions in eggs before the holiday, avoiding short - chasing; being cautious about chasing highs in corn, suggesting hedging on rebounds for grain - holding entities; observing the performance of the M2605 contract at 2700 for soybean meal, shorting on highs [1][27] - **Oils and Fats**: High - level oscillation, suggesting buying on dips, paying attention to position risks before the holiday [3][32] 2. Core Views - The report provides investment suggestions for various futures products based on their fundamentals, market trends, and macro - economic factors. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, inventory, cost, and policy to analyze the price trends of different futures and gives corresponding trading strategies [1][5][9] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the medium to long term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips. Before the holiday, they may trade in a range, and it is advisable to hold positions lightly and focus on defense [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade in a range. Although the overall price level shows a mild recovery, the bond market's reaction to price data is limited. After the holiday, there are uncertainties regarding important meetings and bond supply [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading is recommended as the coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited [1][7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade in a range. The futures price is undervalued, but the demand has declined, and the inventory is accumulating. It is advisable to trade lightly before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: Buying on dips is recommended. Although there are supply and demand constraints, the futures price has fallen to a relatively low level, and there may be variables before the contract expires [7][8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to trade in a range. The recent sharp decline is mainly due to macro - level panic. Although the supply is tight, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. General traders are advised to reduce positions, while hedgers are advised to increase hedging coverage [9] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to trade at a high level. The supply is increasing, but the demand is weakening. It is advisable to strengthen observation and reduce positions before the holiday [10] - **Nickel**: It is expected to trade in a range. Although the nickel ore supply is strong, the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to observe [12] - **Tin**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is stable. It is recommended to trade in a range and pay attention to supply and demand changes [13][14] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to trade in a range. The market is affected by factors such as the nomination of the Fed chairman and economic data. The medium - term price center is rising, and short - term adjustment is expected. It is recommended to trade in a range [14][15] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of mine - end disturbances [15] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to trade in a wide range at a low level. The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is necessary to pay attention to policies and cost factors [15][17] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to trade at a low level. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. It is recommended to observe [17] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade in a range. The inventory is expected to decrease, but the valuation is high. It is necessary to be cautious about chasing highs [19] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is in the off - season, and the demand is weak before the holiday. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory and downstream consumption [19][20] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is stable, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to trade in the range of 1730 - 1830 [20] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply is decreasing, the demand is weak, and the price is affected by geopolitical and port factors [21] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to trade weakly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short on highs [22][24] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to observe. The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong, and the downward space may be limited [24] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to adjust in a range. Although the long - term outlook is optimistic, the short - term is under pressure from the internal - external price difference [25] - **Apples**: They are expected to trade in a range. The market is stable during the Spring Festival stocking period, and the trading volume of different grades of fruits varies [25] - **Jujubes**: They are expected to trade in a range. The acquisition price in the production area is based on quality [27] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: They are expected to build a bottom in a range. Before the year, partial profit - taking on short positions is recommended, and a rolling short strategy on rebounds can be adopted. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase in the first half of the year, and the price may be under pressure [27] - **Eggs**: They are expected to rebound from a low level. Before the holiday, the position should be reduced, and short - chasing should be avoided. It is advisable to hedge on rebounds for the 05 and 06 contracts [29] - **Corn**: The price increase is limited. In the short - term, it is necessary to be cautious about chasing highs, and grain - holding entities can hedge on rebounds. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [30][31] - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to trade in a range at a low level. The M2605 contract should pay attention to the support at 2700, and short positions can be established on highs [31] Oils and Fats - They are expected to oscillate at a high level. The fundamentals of the three major oils are mixed, with soybean oil expected to be relatively strong, and palm oil and rapeseed oil relatively weak. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to position risks before the holiday [32][37]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trading suggestions for various futures products, such as "long - term bullish, buy on dips" for stock index futures, "range trading" for many commodities like copper, tin, etc. [1] Core Views - The report provides trading strategies and market analysis for different futures sectors, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - textile industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It takes into account factors such as supply - demand relationships, macroeconomic data, and geopolitical events to form trading suggestions. [1] Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: Long - term bullish, buy on dips. Before the holiday, it may oscillate, and it is advisable to hold positions lightly with a defensive approach. Factors include US employment data, market expectations of interest rate cuts, and domestic policies on AI and central enterprise investment. [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillate. The overall price level shows a mild recovery, but the bond market reacts little to price data. After the holiday, there are uncertainties regarding important meetings and bond supply, so treasury bonds may oscillate. [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The coal market shows short - term fluctuations. Although prices have increased slightly, the sustainability of the price increase is limited due to factors such as weak downstream demand and early shutdown of private coal mines. [7][8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The rebar futures price is at a relatively low static valuation. In the short term, it may oscillate, and it is recommended to trade with a light position before the holiday. [8] - **Glass**: Buy on dips. Although there are rumors in the industry and the glass price has upward pressure, the futures price has fallen to a relatively low level again, and it is expected to oscillate upward. [9][10] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. General traders are advised to reduce trading positions before the holiday, while hedgers are advised to increase the hedging coverage rate. The copper market is affected by macro factors, and although there is a risk of a supply shortage, the inventory is increasing. [11] - **Aluminum**: High - level oscillation. It is recommended to strengthen observation. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase, while the downstream demand is weakening. [13] - **Nickel**: Oscillate. It is recommended to observe. Although the nickel price has risen due to news of quota cuts in Indonesia, the current market has fully priced in the information, and the fundamentals are weak. [15] - **Tin**: Range trading. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in a state of rigid procurement. It is expected to continue to oscillate. [16][17] - **Silver**: Range trading. The short - term price is in an adjustment state, and the medium - term price center has moved up. It is recommended to conduct range trading. [17] - **Gold**: Range trading. Similar to silver, the short - term price is in an adjustment state, and the medium - term price center has moved up. It is recommended to conduct range trading. [17][18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range oscillation. The supply and demand are in a state of game, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate. [18] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. The current supply - demand situation is weak, but there are opportunities for industrial upgrading in the long term. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up. [19][20] - **Caustic Soda**: Temporarily observe. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. There may be support in the medium term if the market atmosphere of related commodities improves. [20] - **Styrene**: Range trading. It rebounds due to factors such as export increase and device maintenance, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up. [22] - **Rubber**: Range trading. Before the holiday, the market has both positive and negative factors, and the rubber price is expected to oscillate upward. [22] - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply is increasing, the demand is supported by compound fertilizer enterprises, and the price is expected to oscillate within a certain range. [23] - **Methanol**: Range trading. The supply in the inland area is decreasing, the downstream demand is weak, and the price in some areas is strong due to geopolitical and port factors. [24] - **Polyolefins**: Weak oscillation. The downstream demand is weakening before the holiday, the supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. [25][26][27] - **Soda Ash**: Temporarily observe. The supply is in a state of over - supply, but the cost support is strong, and it is recommended to leave the market temporarily. [27] Cotton - Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate and adjust. The global cotton supply and demand situation is changing, and the long - term expectation is optimistic, but it is recommended to be cautious in the short term. [28] - **Apple**: Oscillate. The overall market in the production area is stable, and the trading volume of different grades of apples varies. [28] - **Red Dates**: Oscillate. The purchase price of Xinjiang grey dates in the 2025 production season varies by region, and the raw material purchase adheres to the principle of high - quality and high - price. [30] Agricultural Livestock - **Pigs**: Build a bottom through oscillation. Partially close short positions before the Spring Festival, and adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds. The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure, but there are also factors such as secondary fattening and frozen product storage that may support the price. [30] - **Eggs**: Rebound from a low level. Before the holiday, the trading volume on the futures market decreases, and the price fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to be cautious about shorting, and hold positions lightly during the holiday. The supply of eggs is sufficient, and the demand is weakening. [32] - **Corn**: The upward space is limited. Be cautious about chasing up in the short term, and grain - holding entities can wait for the price to rebound and conduct hedging. The supply - demand pattern of corn in the 2025/2026 season is relatively loose. [32][34] - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to the support level of 2700 yuan/ton for the M2605 contract, and short on rebounds. The market is affected by factors such as the US - South American soybean situation and domestic demand. [34] - **Oils and Fats**: High - level oscillation. It is recommended to buy on dips, and pay attention to position risks before the holiday. The fundamentals of the three major oils and fats are mixed, with different performances for each variety. [33][35][40]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trading suggestions for various futures products, including "long - term bullish and buy on dips", "range trading", "temporary wait - and - see", etc. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple futures products in different sectors, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - spinning industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It provides trading strategies based on factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and market sentiment for each product. Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggest buying on dips. Overseas rebound and reduced liquidity shock disturbances may lead to a slightly bullish and volatile trend [1][6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range. Despite institutional demand for holding bonds during the holiday, factors like resistance at the 60 - day moving average, upcoming important meetings, and bond supply uncertainties contribute to the range - bound movement [6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading is recommended. The coal market shows short - term fluctuations, with price increases driven by factors like price adjustments by Shenhua and local inventory - building demand, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited [7][8]. - **Rebar**: Range trading. The price is currently trading in a range, with low static valuation and weakening cost support. It is recommended to trade with light positions before the holiday [8]. - **Glass**: Suggest buying on dips. Although there are still upward pressure and industry rumors, the futures price has dropped to a relatively low level again, and it is expected to be slightly bullish in the future [9][10]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level range - bound. General traders are advised to reduce trading positions before the holiday, while hedgers are recommended to increase the hedging coverage rate. The copper market is affected by macro factors, with concerns about AI bubbles and geopolitical issues. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the price is expected to stabilize in a range [11]. - **Aluminum**: High - level range - bound. It is recommended to strengthen observation. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while the downstream demand is weakening. The overall market sentiment is still bullish on non - ferrous metals, and it is advisable to reduce positions before the holiday [13]. - **Nickel**: Range - bound. It is recommended to wait and see. The reduction of Indonesia's nickel ore quota has boosted the price, but the current market has fully priced in this factor, and the fundamental situation is weak [15]. - **Tin**: Range trading. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption maintains rigid demand. It is expected to continue to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply and the recovery of downstream demand [16][17]. - **Gold and Silver**: Range trading. Affected by factors such as Trump's nomination of the new Fed chairman and changes in the US economic data, the medium - term price center of both has shifted upwards, but the short - term is in an adjustment state [17][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. The supply and demand situation is complex, with issues such as the suspension of mines in Yichun and the increase in South American lithium salt imports. It is expected to continue to trade in a range [18]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Low - level wide - range trading. The supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, but the valuation is low. Attention should be paid to export policies and cost fluctuations [20]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low - level range - bound. Temporarily wait and see. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. Attention should be paid to supply - side maintenance and production cuts [20]. - **Styrene**: Range trading. There is a rebound supported by factors such as export increase and device maintenance, but the valuation is high, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing the rise [22]. - **Rubber**: Range trading. Before the holiday, the market is affected by both bullish and bearish factors, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish and volatile [22]. - **Urea**: Range trading. The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is rising, and the inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year. The price is expected to trade in a range [23]. - **Methanol**: Range trading. The domestic supply is decreasing, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is weakening, and the traditional downstream demand is also weak. The price in some regions is relatively strong due to geopolitical and port arrival factors [25]. - **Polyolefins**: Weakly bearish and volatile. The downstream demand is weakening during the pre - holiday off - season, the supply is still high, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short on rallies [26]. - **Soda Ash**: Temporarily wait and see. The supply is in surplus, the cost is rising, and the market expectation is poor. It is advisable to leave the market and observe for the time being [27]. Cotton - Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Volatile adjustment. The global cotton supply - demand situation is improving, but the internal - external price difference is suppressing the domestic market. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [28]. - **Apples**: Range - bound. The overall market in the producing areas is stable, and the trading volume of some varieties is average [28]. - **Jujubes**: Range - bound. The purchase price in the producing areas is based on quality, and the market is stable [29]. Agricultural Livestock - **Pigs**: Bottom - building. Partially take profits on short positions before the Spring Festival and adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds. The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the long - term price trend depends on factors such as capacity reduction [29]. - **Eggs**: Rebound from a low level. Before the holiday, the market is volatile, and it is recommended to be cautious when shorting. Pay attention to the supply situation in the medium - to long - term [31]. - **Corn**: Limited upside. In the short term, be cautious when chasing the rise, and grain - holding entities can hedge on rebounds. The medium - to long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [32][33]. - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level range - bound. For the M2605 contract, pay attention to the support at 2700 yuan/ton, and short on rebounds. The market is affected by factors such as South American production and domestic demand [33]. - **Oils and Fats**: High - level range - bound. Suggest buying on dips and pay attention to position risks before the holiday. The market situation of different oils is different, with soybean oil relatively strong and palm oil and rapeseed oil relatively weak [34][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium - to - long - term with a strategy of buying on dips; expect government bonds to move in a range [1][6] - **Black building materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, buying on dips for glass [1][6] - **Non - ferrous metals**: General traders are advised to reduce trading positions before the holiday, while hedgers are recommended to increase hedging coverage for copper; strengthen observation for aluminum; wait - and - see for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver; expect lithium carbonate to move in a range [1][10] - **Energy and chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporary wait - and - see for caustic soda and soda ash; expect polyolefins to be weakly volatile [1][20] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Expect cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range, apples and jujubes to move in a range [1][29] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Short - term supply - demand game for hogs, with a strategy of selling on rallies for off - season contracts; sell on rallies for hedging post - festival contracts of eggs; short - term cautious about chasing high prices for corn, and grain holders can wait for rallies to sell for hedging; expect soybean meal to be mainly volatile in the short term, with the M2603 contract paying attention to the performance at the 3030 level; expect oils and fats to be volatile at high levels in the short term, and recommend buying on pullbacks [1][31] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their fundamentals, market sentiment, and macro - economic factors. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, inventory, and policy to analyze the price trends of different commodities and gives corresponding investment strategies [1][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock indices**: Bullish in the medium - to - long - term, expected to be volatile and stronger. Overseas rebounds and reduced liquidity shock disturbances may drive stock indices to move in this way. It is recommended to buy on dips [1][6] - **Government bonds**: Expected to move in a range. Although institutions may have a demand to hold bonds during the holiday, the rebound of the TL2603 contract was blocked, and there are uncertainties after the holiday [6] Black building materials - **Double - coking coal**: Expected to move in a range, with short - term trading recommended. The coal market has short - term fluctuations, but the price increase is not sustainable due to weak demand and other factors [7][8] - **Rebar**: Expected to move in a range. The price is currently at a low static valuation, and the recent weakness is due to weakened cost support. It is recommended to trade with a light position before the holiday [8] - **Glass**: Expected to move in a range with a bullish bias. There are industry rumors, and although there is pressure above, the price is at a relatively low level again. It is recommended to buy on dips [9][10] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Expected to be volatile at a high level. The recent sharp decline is due to macro - level panic. Although there are uncertainties, it may stabilize in a range after risk release. Traders are advised to reduce positions, and hedgers to increase coverage [11][12] - **Aluminum**: Expected to be volatile at a high level. Supply is increasing, while demand is weakening. It is recommended to strengthen observation and reduce positions before the holiday [13] - **Nickel**: Expected to move in a range. Although there is positive news, the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [15] - **Tin**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is tight, and consumption is in a recovery stage. It is recommended to conduct range trading [16][17] - **Silver and gold**: Expected to move in a range. Affected by factors such as the nomination of the Fed chairman and economic data, the medium - term price center is rising. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to relevant economic data [17][18] - **Lithium carbonate**: Expected to move in a range. Supply and demand are both changing, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of mine - end disturbances [19] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to be volatile at a low level in a wide range. The current supply - demand situation is weak, but there are opportunities for industrial upgrading in the long - term. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices [21] - **Caustic soda**: Expected to be volatile at a low level. Demand is weak, and supply is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [22] - **Styrene**: Expected to move in a range. There is support for inventory reduction, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [23] - **Rubber**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is tightening, and demand is under pressure. It is recommended to conduct range trading [23] - **Urea**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is increasing, and demand is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies [24][25] - **Methanol**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is decreasing, and demand is weak. It is affected by geopolitical and port factors [25] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to be weakly volatile. Supply is high, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to sell on rallies and pay attention to downstream demand and inventory [26][28] - **Soda ash**: It is recommended to wait and see. Supply is expected to shrink, and there is cost support. The price may have limited downward space [28] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: Expected to adjust in a range. Although there is short - term pressure, the long - term outlook is optimistic [29] - **Apples and jujubes**: Expected to move in a range. The market for apples in production areas is stable, and the price of jujubes is determined by quality [29][31] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Hogs**: Expected to build a bottom in a range. In the short - term, there is a supply - demand game, and it is recommended to sell on rallies for off - season contracts. In the long - term, pay attention to capacity reduction [31] - **Eggs**: Expected to rebound from a low level. The supply is sufficient in the short - term, and the market will experience a grinding process in the long - term. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and consider hedging on rallies [33] - **Corn**: The price increase is limited. In the short - term, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices, and grain holders can sell on rallies for hedging. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [34][35] - **Soybean meal**: Expected to be volatile at a low level. Pay attention to the support at 2700 yuan/ton for the M2605 contract, and it is recommended to short on rallies [35] - **Oils and fats**: Expected to be volatile at high levels. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks and pay attention to position risks before the holiday. Different oils have different performance characteristics [36][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Pig Industry**: In the short - term, there is an increase in both supply and demand, and the price is not optimistic. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply in the first half of 2026 is expected to increase year - on - year, and the price after the Spring Festival may be under pressure. The price in the second half of the year is expected to strengthen due to capacity reduction, but the process may be slow [4][51]. - **Egg Industry**: Currently, supply is strong and demand is weak, with the near - term contract being weak and the far - term contract being strong. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply reduction process is slow, and one should not be overly optimistic [5][79]. - **Corn Industry**: In the short - term, the market is balanced in terms of purchase and sales, and the price is expected to remain high. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, which will put pressure on the upside space [7][110]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of February 6, the national spot price was 12.05 yuan/kg, down 0.16 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 12.72 yuan/kg, up 0.26 yuan/kg from last week; the pig 2605 contract closed at 11,625 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from last week; the 05 contract basis was 1,095 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly national pig price first rose and then fell, with the center of gravity moving down [4][51]. 3.1.2 Supply Side - The inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly in September 2025 and the capacity reduction accelerated in October. However, due to previous profits, the anti - loss ability increased, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit turned positive in December, so the capacity reduction slowed down. The inventory of breeding sows in December was still above the normal level of 39 million. In the first half of 2026, the supply will remain high, and it will decrease marginally after August but remain in a balanced state. According to piglet and feed data, the supply pressure in the first half of the year is still large [4][51]. 3.1.3 Demand Side - The weekly slaughtering start - up rate and slaughter volume first increased, then decreased, and then increased again, slowly rising. As the Spring Festival approached, the demand improved, but was briefly affected by the sharp drop in pig prices in the middle of the week. The weekly fresh - sales rate increased slightly, and the frozen - product inventory digestion was slow, with the frozen - product storage rate decreasing slightly [4][51]. 3.1.4 Cost Side - The weekly piglet price fluctuated slightly, and the price of binary breeding sows was stable. The self - breeding and self - raising profit narrowed, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding turned negative. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs for 5 months decreased compared with last week [4][51]. 3.1.5 Weekly Summary - In the short - term, both supply and demand increase, and the price is not optimistic. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply in the first half of the year increases year - on - year, and the price may be under pressure after the Spring Festival if the inventory is not effectively reduced. The price in the second half of the year is expected to strengthen due to capacity reduction, but the process may be slow [4][51]. 3.1.6 Strategy Suggestion - In the short - term, for near - month off - season contracts, partially close short positions after the price drops and adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds. For far - month contracts, be cautious about bullish views, and the industry can hedge at high prices when there is profit before the capacity is effectively reduced [4][51]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of February 6, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 4 yuan/jin, down 0.56 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 4.02 yuan/jin, down 0.55 yuan/jin from last Friday; the main egg 2603 contract closed at 2,904 yuan/500 kg, down 98 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was - 84 yuan/500 kg, 702 yuan/500 kg weaker than last Friday. The weekly egg price dropped significantly [5][79]. 3.2.2 Supply Side - The inventory of laying hens in January 2026 was at a historical high. The newly - opened laying hens in February corresponded to the replenishment in September 2025, with both month - on - month and year - on - year declines. The current egg price drop has increased the farmers' enthusiasm for culling, but due to the approaching Spring Festival, the culling of old hens is difficult, and the inventory remains high. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply reduction process is slow [5][79]. 3.2.3 Demand Side - As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg price has risen to a relatively high level, and the procurement demand of channels has decreased significantly. The demand in different regions has diverged, and the substitution demand at the terminal has weakened. The inventory in production and circulation links has increased [5][79]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary - Currently, the supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the price is in a weak shock. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply reduction process is slow [5][79]. 3.2.5 Strategy Suggestion - For non - holders, be cautious about shorting; for holders, hold light positions during the Spring Festival. Consider hedging the 05 and 06 contracts at high prices after a rebound [5][79]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of February 6, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,335 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last Friday; the main corn 2603 contract closed at 2,274 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was 61 yuan/ton, 8 yuan/ton weaker than last Friday. The weekly national corn price was slightly weak [7][110]. 3.3.2 Supply Side - The national grass - roots grain sales reached 61%, and the post - festival sales pressure may be small. The import of corn in December was 800,000 tons, a significant increase year - on - year. The inventory in the north and south ports increased [7][110]. 3.3.3 Demand Side - The inventory of breeding sows is slowly decreasing, and the poultry inventory is also slowly declining. The current high inventory supports the rigid demand for feed. The deep - processing profit is in a loss state, which limits the increase in deep - processing demand [7][110]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary - In the short - term, the market is balanced in terms of purchase and sales, and the price is expected to remain high. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, which will put pressure on the upside space [7][110]. 3.3.5 Strategy Suggestion - In the short - term, the spot market is balanced, and the futures price fluctuates within a range. Grain - holding entities can hedge at high prices after a rebound. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand situation in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, which limits the increase in price [7][110].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the black sector showed a differentiated trend, with steel and ore prices falling, and coal and coke rising first and then falling, overall performing weakly. The iron ore futures led the decline. In the entire futures market, commodity prices generally fell, with non - ferrous metals having the largest decline [4]. - Globally, uncertainties have increased. The US continues to impose sanctions on Iran, and Trump nominated Wash as the Fed Chairman, which caused market fluctuations. Domestically, over 30 provinces have determined their GDP growth targets for 2026, showing overall stability [4]. - In terms of the industrial pattern, steel demand dropped significantly last week, and the inventory accumulation speed accelerated. At the raw material end, downstream enterprises continued to replenish stocks before the festival. Due to the Indonesian government's proposal to significantly cut coal production, many Indonesian coal mining enterprises have suspended spot coal exports [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - Last week, the black sector had a differentiated trend, with steel and ore prices falling and coal and coke rising first and then falling [4]. 02 Futures Market Rise - Fall Comparison - In the entire futures market, commodity prices generally fell, and non - ferrous metals had the largest decline [4]. 03 Spot Prices - Scrap steel prices rose, while steel and iron ore prices fell [18]. 04 Profit and Valuation - The electric furnace profit worsened, and the valuation of rebar futures was low [19]. 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel demand dropped significantly last week, and the inventory accumulation speed accelerated. However, the current absolute inventory is low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The recent weakness is mainly due to the weakening of cost support [5]. 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Last week, the molten iron output increased slightly, and the iron ore inventories of steel mills and ports both increased. Before the festival, the steel mill inventory has been replenished to a level slightly lower than the normal level in recent years. Although the iron ore shipments have significantly declined compared to the end of last year, according to the previous shipment data, the expected arrival volume is still acceptable, and iron ore may continue the inventory accumulation pattern [5]. 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Last week, the raw coal output declined, the total coking coal inventory continued to accumulate, and coal - using enterprises continued to replenish stocks. However, the pre - festival stock replenishment is about to end. Attention should be paid to the Indonesian coal policy [5]. 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Last week, the coke output increased slightly, and the inventory shifted to the middle and lower reaches. After the first round of coke price increase was implemented, the profits of coke enterprises improved [5]. 09 Variety Spreads - The rebar - iron ore price ratio strengthened, and the hot - rolled coil - rebar price spread widened [37]. 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - Multiple important events occurred, including high - level phone calls and video meetings between countries, the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" central first - document, the determination of GDP growth targets by 30 provinces in China, US sanctions on Iran, changes in US economic data, the establishment of a key minerals trading mechanism by the US, EU's adjustment of carbon market rules, and the suspension of coal exports by Indonesian coal mining enterprises [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the production of lithium carbonate decreased by 375 tons to 23,685 tons last week, and the January production decreased by 3% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, and mines in Yichun and Qinghai are facing permit review. Overseas imports in December 2025 showed an 8.1% month - on - month increase in lithium concentrate imports, and a 9% increase in lithium carbonate imports. Some lithium ore - purchasing manufacturers face cost inversion, while self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises have profit support, and lithium hydroxide manufacturers face high cost pressure [5]. - On the demand side, the overall production schedule in February decreased month - on - month, while that of large battery cell factories increased in December. In December, the combined production of power and energy - storage batteries was 201.7GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. Exports were 32.6GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 49.2%, accounting for 16.4% of the monthly sales. The new energy vehicle market is expected to grow due to policies [6]. - In terms of inventory, lithium carbonate inventory is in a destocking state. Factory inventory increased by 1,010 tons, market inventory decreased by 6,575 tons, and futures inventory increased by 3,146 tons [6]. - It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to fluctuate and adjust. Although the demand for exports is strong and the destocking trend continues, the supply is expected to be supplemented by South American lithium salt imports. Entering the off - season of power demand with increasing supply, the price will likely remain volatile [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Viewpoint Supply - Last week's lithium carbonate production decreased by 375 tons to 23,685 tons, and January production decreased by 3% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, and Yichun and Qinghai production enterprises received mine permit review notices. Some mines in Jiangxi may face shutdown. In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, with limited further cost - reduction space. In December 2025, China imported 789,000 tons of lithium concentrate, an 8.1% month - on - month increase. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. Lithium carbonate imports in December were 23,989 tons, a 9% month - on - month increase [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week. Some manufacturers purchasing lithium ore face cost inversion, while self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises have profit support, and lithium hydroxide manufacturers face high cost pressure [5]. Demand - The overall production schedule in February decreased month - on - month, while that of large battery cell factories increased in December. In December, the combined production of power and energy - storage batteries was 201.7GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. Exports were 32.6GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 49.2%, accounting for 16.4% of the monthly sales. The new energy vehicle market is expected to grow due to policies [6]. Inventory - This week, lithium carbonate inventory is in a destocking state. Factory inventory increased by 1,010 tons, market inventory decreased by 6,575 tons, and futures inventory increased by 3,146 tons [6]. Strategy Suggestion - From the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo mine is still shut down, and there are risks in Yichun's mine permits. January's domestic lithium carbonate production decreased by 3% month - on - month. December's lithium concentrate imports were 789,000 tons, an 8.1% month - on - month increase, and lithium carbonate imports were about 24,000 tons, an 8.7% month - on - month increase and a 14.4% year - on - year decrease. Strong downstream demand for exports and the destocking trend continue. It is expected that South American lithium salt imports will supplement the supply. - From the demand side, the production schedule in February decreased month - on - month, while it increased significantly in January due to export rush. The cathode production schedule in November increased by 2% month - on - month. There are continuous risks in Yichun's mine permits. With profit restoration, lithium production from ore continues to increase, and the cost center shifts upward. The resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo is postponed, and the pre - demand for battery exports drives downstream production increase. Inventory continues to decline, and South American lithium salt shipments increase. Attention should be paid to the disturbances at Yichun's mine end. Entering the off - season of power demand with increasing supply, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to fluctuate and adjust [6]. 3.2. Key Data Tracking - The document provides multiple data charts, including the spot含税均价 of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, weekly inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, average price of imported lithium concentrate, monthly factory inventory, production of power and other batteries, production of lithium iron phosphate, average production cost of lithium carbonate, production of ternary materials, average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate, import volume of lithium spodumene, market price of ternary materials, and import volume of lithium carbonate [8][9][11][12][16][18][20][27][29][30][33][34]. - In 2026 January, the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials accounted for 18.06% from salt lakes, 24.55% from lithium mica, and 45.37% from lithium spodumene [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The four major stock indices may rebound and then fluctuate. Considering the long Spring Festival holiday, it is advisable to hold a light position before the holiday [11]. - The bond market has no obvious major negative factors and is generally oscillating upward. However, there is no further impetus to drive interest rates down. The bond market may move in a relatively narrow range and wait for the emergence of the next - stage main line [13]. - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI declined, and the recovery of production lacks clear demand support. The inventory shows a continuous accumulation trend. High raw material prices may affect the profitability of industrial enterprises [19]. - Seasonal factors and the low - base effect are expected to push up the CPI. Four factors will drive the year - on - year central level of CPI to rise in 2026 [22]. - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of exports rebounded unexpectedly. The "One Belt, One Road" investment - driven foreign trade cycle may continue in 2026 [25]. - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits continued to decline negatively, mainly due to the significant decline in profit margins [29]. - In 2025, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned negative. In December, the decline of private investment and public investment both widened [32]. - In 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail sales, social retail sales excluding automobiles, and retail sales above the quota all rebounded slightly compared with 2024. In December, the performance of the two showed differentiation [35]. - Under the suppression of government bonds, the growth rate of social financing continued to decline. In January, the central bank introduced a series of policy combinations [38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - Stock index trend review: Last week, the four major stock indices were under pressure and declined [11]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the stock index may move in a fluctuating manner [11]. - Strategy outlook: The stock index is expected to move in a range - bound manner [11]. Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions - Treasury bond trend review: The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main - contract treasury bonds rose by 0.42%, 0.08%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively [13]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the T main - contract of treasury bonds may move in a fluctuating manner [13]. - Strategy outlook: Treasury bonds are expected to move in a fluctuating manner [13]. Key Data Tracking PMI - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3%. The recovery of production is mainly due to the improvement of upstream industry operations and a slight strengthening of export orders, but there is no clear demand improvement support [19]. CPI - Seasonal factors and the low - base effect are expected to push up the CPI. Four factors will drive the year - on - year central level of CPI to rise in 2026, including the low - base effect, the narrowing decline of pork prices, the impact of gold prices, and the expansion of service consumption [22]. Import and Export - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of exports rebounded unexpectedly to 6.6%, with a month - on - month growth of 8.3%. The annual export growth exceeded expectations mainly due to two cognitive biases in the market. The "One Belt, One Road" investment - driven foreign trade cycle may continue in 2026 [25]. Large - scale Industrial Enterprises - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits continued to decline negatively, with the decline expanding to - 13.1%. The decline in profit growth was mainly due to the significant decline in profit margins [29]. Fixed - Asset Investment - In 2025, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, turning negative from positive. In December, the decline of private investment and public investment both widened, while the growth rates of equipment and tool purchases and other expenses increased [32]. Social Retail - In 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail sales, social retail sales excluding automobiles, and retail sales above the quota all rebounded slightly compared with 2024. In December, the performance of the two showed differentiation. The reasons include the general weakness of consumption channels and the weakening drag of durable goods [35]. Social Financing - Under the suppression of government bonds, the growth rate of social financing continued to decline. In December 2025, the medium - and long - term loans of enterprises increased year - on - year. In January 2026, the central bank introduced a series of policy combinations focusing on structural tools [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, macro factors continued to dominate the financial market. Concerns about the AI bubble resurfaced, leading to a sharp decline in global markets, including stocks, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals. However, Shanghai copper rebounded due to news of increased state purchases and then declined again with the external market, finally stabilizing at around 100,000 [4]. - The copper market's sharp decline was mainly driven by sudden panic in the macro - level, and some factors that previously pushed copper prices to new highs have changed. But copper will remain a focus of global strategic resource competition, and its structural shortage may continue. Before the Spring Festival, copper prices may stabilize after a rapid release of risks [4]. - The aluminum market shows mixed trends. Alumina production capacity has some fluctuations, and electrolytic aluminum supply is increasing unexpectedly. The demand of downstream enterprises is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating [4]. - The zinc market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to macro - sentiment disturbances and pre - holiday capital outflows [4]. - The lead market has sufficient supply and weak demand. Affected by the decline in precious metal prices, lead prices hit a new low in 2026. After the pre - holiday profit - taking of short - selling funds in precious metals, the market may stabilize [4]. - The nickel market has a strong support at the mine end, but the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend [5]. - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore, and the downstream demand maintains rigid procurement. It is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the supply resumption and downstream demand [5]. - The industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are affected by production cuts on both the supply and demand sides, and are expected to fluctuate [5]. - The lithium carbonate market is affected by factors such as mine risks and changes in supply and demand. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the power demand off - season [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - **Economic data of the current week (2/2 - 2/8)**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, higher than the previous value; the eurozone's January manufacturing PMI was 49.5; the US January ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.6, reaching a new high since February 2022; the US January ADP employment increase was 22,000, lower than expected; the US January ISM services PMI was 53.8, reaching a new high since 2024 [12][13][15][17][18]. - **Policy and news**: China's Non - ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to include copper concentrates in the national reserve; US President Donald Trump plans to invest $12 billion in strategic key mineral reserves [14][16]. - **Next - week economic data calendar (2/9 - 2/15)**: It includes data such as China's January M1 and M2 money supply year - on - year, the US January NFIB small business optimism index, and the US January unemployment rate [20]. 2. Copper - **Market review**: Shanghai copper first rebounded and then declined, and finally stabilized at around 100,000. The copper market was mainly affected by macro factors and inventory changes [4]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes LME copper spot/three - month spread, Shanghai copper inter - period spread curve, COMEX institutional positions, and global visible copper inventory [30][33]. 3. Aluminum - **Market review**: Shanghai aluminum showed a trend of rising and then adjusting, with the overall upward trend temporarily maintained [37]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes 6063 aluminum rod inventory, alumina port inventory, aluminum bauxite port inventory, electrolytic aluminum social inventory, electrolytic aluminum cost and profit, and alumina production cost and profit [41][42][43][45]. 4. Zinc - **Market review**: Shanghai zinc showed a trend of rising and then adjusting, with the upward trend of shock temporarily unchanged [50]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory/warehouse receipts, global visible zinc inventory, 0 zinc ingot premium, zinc forward curve, and zinc - related product prices [52][53][58][59]. 5. Lead - **Market review**: Shanghai lead showed a downward trend of shock, with overall range fluctuations [65]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes Shanghai Futures Exchange lead inventory/warehouse receipts, global lead inventory, lead forward curve, lead spot premium, and LME lead (spot/three - month) spread [67][70][74]. 6. Nickel - **Market review**: Shanghai nickel fell from a high level and was under pressure from the lower edge of the upper shock area [78]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory, LME nickel global inventory, high - nickel iron and Jinchuan nickel plate prices, nickel and nickel sulfate prices, and stainless steel inventory [81][82][87][88][90][91][92]. 7. Tin - **Market review**: Shanghai tin continued to decline after rising, and was temporarily supported by the lower trend line [95]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes tin futures closing prices, Shanghai tin premium, tin smelting profit, LME tin (spot/three - month) spread, tin - related product prices, Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory, and LME tin inventory [98][99][100][101][104]. 8. Other Metals (Gold, Silver, etc.) - **Trend analysis**: Shanghai gold rebounded after falling from a high level, maintaining an overall upward trend; Shanghai silver fell again after a rebound, breaking through the previous low, and the trend weakened; platinum and palladium showed wide - range fluctuations; industrial silicon showed wide - range fluctuations and broke through the lower limit of the range; alumina showed small - range fluctuations; polysilicon showed small - range fluctuations and stabilized; aluminum alloy showed small - range fluctuations and the downward trend changed; stainless steel and lithium carbonate fell from high levels, and the upward trend changed [109][111][112][114][116][118][119][122].