Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - On August 12, the Ministry of Commerce announced that Canadian rapeseed constituted dumping in China. Since August 14, importers of Canadian rapeseed have to pay a deposit, which dampens traders' enthusiasm for imports and restricts the subsequent domestic rapeseed supply. As Canadian rapeseed accounts for about 90% of the total imported rapeseed, the preliminary anti - dumping review has a huge impact on the domestic rapeseed industry [1][21]. - The domestic supplementary import routes after the import of Canadian rapeseed is blocked are analyzed. Firstly, the re - import of Australian rapeseed: the production of Australian rapeseed in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons is 6.396 million tons and 6.448 million tons respectively, with an annual export volume of about 5 million tons. For the 24/25 season, due to purchases by other importing countries and domestic consumption, the remaining old - crop Australian rapeseed is scarce, so the export potential to China is mainly reflected in the 25/26 season. The conservative estimate of the export capacity of Australian rapeseed to China in the 25/26 season is about 1 - 2 million tons. Secondly, increasing the import volume of rapeseed oil: the market estimates that the production of Russian rapeseed oil in the 25/26 season will increase year - on - year to 5.15 - 5.3 million tons, and its export to the EU is still difficult. The annual export volume of Russian rapeseed oil to China is expected to increase to 1.5 million tons. The total annual export volume of rapeseed oil from Russia, Belarus, and the UAE is estimated to be about 2 million tons [1][2][21][22]. - In terms of subsequent domestic supply, in 2025, the domestic consumption of rapeseed oil is average, with a monthly consumption of about 240,000 - 270,000 tons and an estimated annual total consumption of 2.88 - 3.24 million tons. After subtracting the 2 million tons of imported rapeseed oil, there is still a gap of 880,000 - 1.24 million tons of rapeseed oil, which is approximately equivalent to 2 - 2.88 million tons of imported rapeseed. In the most ideal situation, even importing only rapeseed oil can make up for the consumption gap, and the rapeseed oil inventory is at a historical high. Although there is still a supply gap caused by the difficulty in importing Canadian rapeseed after August, the amplitude of the gap may not be large [2][22]. - In terms of rhythm, before the large - scale import of new - crop rapeseed and rapeseed oil in November this year, the domestic rapeseed supply gap is the most obvious, and the expectation of accelerated inventory depletion of rapeseed oil remains unchanged. After November, it is the peak consumption season for rapeseed oil, but new - crop rapeseed and rapeseed oil start to be imported, so the supply - demand tension may be weaker than before November. As for the rapeseed supply - demand situation in 2026, it depends more on the actual export capacity of Australian rapeseed to China [3][19][22][23]. - In the short term, due to the abundant harvest of Australian rapeseed, the news of Canadian politicians visiting China to discuss rapeseed anti - dumping, the domestic trial import of Australian rapeseed, and the decline of other oils, domestic rapeseed oil currently lacks the impetus for a sharp rise. However, the supply gap before the new - crop rapeseed and rapeseed oil enter the domestic market in November supports its bottom, and the overall trend is high - level oscillation. In the medium - to - long term, the supply gap caused by the difficulty in importing Canadian rapeseed products still exists, but the amplitude is limited, and the medium - to - long - term trend of rapeseed oil is cautiously bullish. The short - term support for the rapeseed oil 01 contract is 9,700 - 9,600, and the pressure is 10,000. Adopt the strategy of buying on dips, and also pay attention to the performance of the 11 - 01 positive spread [3][23]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. China - Australia relations improve, and Australia is expected to become a new major source of domestic rapeseed imports - Australia is the world's second - largest rapeseed exporter. China imported Australian rapeseed intermittently before 2021. According to the Australian Ministry of Agriculture, the estimated production of old - crop rapeseed in the 24/25 season is 6.396 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 5.79%). In the 25/26 season, although the sown area of new - crop rapeseed decreased, high yields were achieved due to no severe weather problems during the sowing period. The production is expected to increase slightly to 6.448 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 0.78%), much higher than the June estimate of 5.71 million tons, changing from a year - on - year decrease to a year - on - year increase [6]. - In terms of export capacity to China, before the new - crop rapeseed is harvested and enters the market in large quantities in November, the export capacity of Australian old - crop rapeseed to China is very limited. By the end of June 2025, only 726,000 tons of old - crop rapeseed remained. After deducting the subsequent domestic consumption, only 226,000 tons of old - crop rapeseed are available for export. Moreover, currently, French rapeseed is still at a high price globally, and exporting to the EU is more profitable. The fact that China's recent imports are all new - crop rapeseed after November rather than old - crop Australian rapeseed also verifies this [7]. - For new - crop rapeseed, in the 25/26 season, the production of Australian rapeseed is basically the same as that of the previous season, and the Australian Ministry of Agriculture estimates an export target of 5.2 million tons. Currently, China has allowed the trial import of Australian rapeseed. Market news indicates that there are already 5 ships with a cargo volume of 65,000 tons each for the November - January shipping period, with a total of 325,000 tons of Australian rapeseed to be imported in three months, and there are also 4 undetermined ships for the same period. In the most ideal situation, the export volume of Australian rapeseed to China may reach 4 - 5 million tons. However, in reality, China's annual import volume of Australian rapeseed is more likely to be around 1 - 2 million tons. In terms of rhythm, new - crop Australian rapeseed usually starts to be imported in large quantities in November, and the pressure is more likely to be reflected in the 01 contract rather than the 11 contract [8]. II. Diversification of domestic rapeseed oil imports intensifies, and rapeseed oil from Russia, the UAE, and Belarus is expected to increase imports to supplement the supply - Different from rapeseed, which is 90% dependent on Canadian imports, the diversification of domestic rapeseed oil imports is higher. The import of Russian rapeseed oil accounts for nearly 60%. In addition, rapeseed oil from the UAE, Ukraine, and Belarus can also be imported. Since 2024, the import volume of Canadian rapeseed oil has shrunk significantly, and after China imposed a 100% anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed oil in March 2025, the import channel was completely blocked [10]. - In terms of Russian rapeseed oil, the market generally believes that the production of new - crop rapeseed in the 25/26 season will increase year - on - year. The USDA's August estimate of production is 5.3 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 13.98%), and IKAR's estimate is 5.15 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 10.52%). The increase in production is conducive to enhancing Russia's export capacity of rapeseed oil. The USDA's August estimate of 1.4 million tons of exports (a year - on - year increase of 3.7%) may be revised upwards later. Currently, Russia has not opened up its export to the EU, so China remains its preferred export destination. According to customs data, from January to July 2025, China imported a total of 750,000 tons of rapeseed oil, and the annual import volume is estimated to be about 1.5 million tons [10]. - In addition to Russian rapeseed oil, China can also import rapeseed oil from Belarus, Ukraine, and the UAE, but their export volumes are relatively small and only play an auxiliary role. In 2025, the estimated production of Belarusian rapeseed is 1 million tons, and the export volume is temporarily calculated at 200,000 tons per year as in normal years. In the 25/26 season, the production of Ukrainian rapeseed has decreased significantly, and the USDA's August estimate of its production is only 3.5 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 7.89%), which limits the amount of rapeseed oil available for export in the new season. Moreover, Ukrainian rapeseed oil will be preferentially exported to the closer EU. This year, its export volume of rapeseed oil to China has decreased significantly, with the export volume from January to July being less than 10,000 tons, and its subsequent export potential is also very limited. The UAE can accept Canadian rapeseed that cannot enter China, but its annual import volume of about 1 million tons of rapeseed is close to the domestic processing limit of 1.1 million tons and cannot be further increased in the short term. From January to July 2025, it exported a total of 120,000 tons of rapeseed oil to China, and its annual export capacity is estimated to be about 300,000 tons [11]. - In general, increasing the import volume of rapeseed oil is another supplementary channel for China besides allowing the import of Australian rapeseed. This year, the abundant harvest of new - crop Russian rapeseed is also conducive to increasing its exports to China. The total annual export potential of rapeseed oil from Russia, Belarus, and the UAE is about 2 million tons. In terms of rhythm, like Canadian rapeseed, new - crop Russian, UAE, and Belarusian rapeseed oil also start to enter the Chinese market in large quantities after November every year because new - crop Russian and Belarusian rapeseed is harvested and enters the crushing plants for processing after November [12]. III. After August, the domestic rapeseed supply is expected to remain tight, and the import volume of Australian rapeseed determines the tightness amplitude - The annual consumption of rapeseed oil from domestic import sources (imported rapeseed for crushing/direct import of rapeseed oil) is about 2 - 3.5 million tons. In 2023 - 2024, China imported 5.05 million tons and 6.13 million tons of Canadian rapeseed respectively, which can be crushed into 2.17 million tons and 2.64 million tons of rapeseed oil according to the 43% oil yield. In addition, in these two years, China also imported 2.36 million tons and 1.88 million tons of rapeseed oil respectively. The total supply of rapeseed oil from import sources in 2023 - 2024 reached 4.53 million tons and 4.52 million tons respectively, far exceeding the normal domestic consumption, which is the main reason for the serious inventory accumulation of domestic rapeseed oil in these two years and its continuation into 2025 [17]. - In 2025, the domestic consumption of rapeseed oil is average, with a monthly consumption of about 240,000 - 270,000 tons and an estimated annual total consumption of 2.88 - 3.24 million tons. After subtracting the 2 million tons of imported rapeseed oil, there is still a gap of 880,000 - 1.24 million tons of rapeseed oil, which is approximately equivalent to 2 - 2.88 million tons of imported rapeseed. From January to July 2025, China has imported 2 million tons of rapeseed. Calculated according to the lowest consumption level, after July, there is no need to import rapeseed, and even importing only rapeseed oil can meet the domestic consumption demand. Moreover, the current domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still at a historical high, reaching 660,000 tons in the week ending August 29. Currently, there is no shortage of rapeseed oil. However, considering that the fourth quarter is the traditional peak consumption season for oils and fats and downstream enterprises will stock up in advance, the consumption of rapeseed oil will improve in the fourth quarter. Therefore, it is believed that there is still a supply gap after the absence of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter, but the gap will not be large and will not reach a million - ton - level large gap [18]. - On the premise that China's anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed products remains unchanged, the import volume of Australian rapeseed is expected to be the biggest factor determining the tightness amplitude of the domestic rapeseed oil supply - demand situation in the second half of 2025 and even in 2026. If the import volume of Australian rapeseed into China is small due to incomplete liberalization in China or large - scale purchases by traditional exporting countries, there will be a certain supply gap in domestic rapeseed, which will help accelerate the depletion of rapeseed oil inventory, which is still at a historical high. However, if a large amount of Australian rapeseed enters China, with the cooperation of the increased import of rapeseed oil, the domestic rapeseed supply gap will be largely made up, and the inventory depletion speed of rapeseed oil will also slow down [19]. - In terms of rhythm, it is expected that new - crop Australian rapeseed and Russian/Belarusian/UAE rapeseed oil will not be available in large quantities until after November this year. So, at least before November, the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil supply can get little supplement, and the supply gap is expected to be the most obvious, and the expectation of accelerated inventory depletion of rapeseed oil remains unchanged. After November, it is the peak consumption season for rapeseed oil, but new - crop rapeseed and rapeseed oil start to be imported, so the supply - demand tension may be weaker than before November. As for the situation in 2026, it depends more on the export capacity of Australian rapeseed to China [19].

01 02 油脂：需求好转叠加供应收紧，上行动 力仍存 目 录 豆粕：成本支撑VS利多匮乏，价格区间运行 长江期货粕类油脂周报 2025-09-08 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 豆粕：成本支撑VS利多匮乏，价格区间运 行 01 01 豆粕：成本支撑VS利多匮乏，价格区间运行 资料来源：同花顺 长江期货饲料养殖中心 资料来源：同花顺 长江期货饲料养殖中心 03 基本面数据回顾 | | 指标属性 | 本周 | 上周 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 华北现货价格 | 3050 | 3050 | 0% | | | 华东现货价格 | 3020 | 3000 | 1% | | | 山东现货价格 | 2980 | 2980 | 0% | | | 华北-山东价差 | 70 | 70 | 0% | | | 华北-华东价差 | 30 | 50 | -40% | | 价格 | 山东-华东价差 | -40 | -20 | 100% | | | 华北基差价格 | -17 | -2 | 750% ...

铜周报：供需存利好预期，宏观推动铜价偏强 2025-9-8 01 主要观点策略 01 主要观点策略 p 需求端：下游消费未有明显起色，步入金九旺季或提振需求。截至9月4日，国内主要精铜杆企业周度开工率上升至69.78%，环比 上升1.66个百分点，同比下降8.37个百分点。上周华北和华东市场由于铜价高位运行，消费表现疲软。华南地区下游线缆企业订单有所 增加叠加月初资金充足，带动华南地区精铜杆企业开工率增长，进而带动精铜杆企业整体开工率的增长。7月铜箔、铜管、铜板带开工 率分别为77.28%、68.94%、65.63%。7月中国铜箔企业开工率继续上升，主要因素是锂电铜箔市场需求强劲。而铜管开工符合下滑 预期，主机厂开始陆续放假，提货速度减慢。7月铜板带开工率受行业淡季，市场需求不佳影响，开工率继续下降。 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 p 供给端：截至9月5日，铜精矿进口粗炼费为-40.5美元/吨，周环比增加0.77美元/吨，铜精矿进口粗炼费仍位于低位，矿冶矛盾持 续。截至9月5日，国内铜精矿港口库存56万吨，铜精矿港口库存低位小幅回升，但仍处于历年 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Yangtze River Futures Urea Weekly Report: Supply and Demand Loose, Pay Attention to Marginal Improvement [1] - Report date: September 8, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Ying, Practice No.: F03105021, Investment Consultation No.: Z0021335 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Recently, the urea operating rate has decreased, and the daily output has dropped to 18 - 190,000 tons. Agricultural fertilizer demand is scattered, compound fertilizer finished product pick - up is poor, and the slow fertilizer preparation progress restrains the start - up. The continuous accumulation of urea enterprise inventory, the high port inventory, and the increase in the number of warehouse receipts reflect that the urea spot market has a loose supply - demand relationship. It is expected that the compound fertilizer demand will be postponed, waiting for the marginal improvement of supply and demand. Pay attention to the support at the phased price bottom, and focus on the support of 1650 - 1700 for the 01 contract [4] Group 4: Market Changes - Price: Affected by the downward adjustment of the urea spot quotation and poor sales, the support for the market expectation on the futures market weakened, and the urea price was strong first and then weak. On September 5, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1,713 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decline of 1.89%, and the lowest during the period was 1,706 yuan/ton. The daily average price of the urea spot in the Henan market was 1,699 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decline of 1.62% [4][7] - Basis: On September 5, the main basis in the Henan market was - 14 yuan/ton, and the weekly basis operating range was (- 35) - (- 3) yuan/ton [4][10] - Spread: On September 5, the 9 - 1 spread was - 51 yuan/ton, and the weekly operating range was (- 73) - (- 50) yuan/ton [4][10] Group 5: Fundamental Changes Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 79.13%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the previous week, among which the operating load rate of gas - head enterprises was 71.15%, a decrease of 0.65 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average urea output was 182,700 tons. After the reduction or short - stop of some devices in Henan, Hebei and other places and then resumed production, and the smooth production after the commissioning of some devices in Shandong, Anhui, Xinjiang and other places, the overall operating rate decreased, and the urea supply decreased month - on - month [4][12] Cost - The trading in the anthracite market cooled down, and the price was mainly stable. As of September 4, the tax - included price of anthracite washed small lumps with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 840 - 900 yuan/ton, and the tax - included price of anthracite washed lumps with S1 - 1.5 in Yangquan, Shanxi was 760 - 800 yuan/ton, both of which were flat compared with the closing price of the previous week [4][16] Demand - Agricultural demand: National agricultural demand was scattered at this stage. The average advance receipt of major urea production enterprises was 3.4 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 94.8%. Agricultural demand moderately followed up, the compound fertilizer operation was stable, and there was a bargain - hunting purchase of urea. The downstream operation of melamine and other products was generally stable, and the production and sales were stable [4][20] - Industrial demand: The capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 33.08%, a decrease of 6.14 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 841,200 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons from the previous week. During the domestic compound fertilizer sales stage, the operation of most fertilizer enterprises was relatively stable. Individual fertilizer enterprises had short - stop maintenance and would gradually resume production in the near future. It is expected that the compound fertilizer capacity operation rate may increase next week. The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 55.11%, a decrease of 1.93 percentage points from the previous week, and the weekly output was 27,160 tons [4][24][27] Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 1.094 million tons, an increase of 91,000 tons from the previous week, continuing the inventory accumulation trend. Urea port inventory was 797,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous week, and the port inventory also remained at a high level. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 8,299, totaling 165,980 tons, an increase of 1,826 from the previous week, totaling 36,520 tons [4][31] Group 6: Key Points to Follow - Compound fertilizer start - up situation, urea device reduction and maintenance situation, export policy, and coal price fluctuations [4]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The report suggests a strategy of buying on pullbacks for glass futures. In the traditional peak season, the sales in Hubei have continued to improve, and the downstream processing plants in North China have resumed work, so the regional production and sales are expected to pick up. The overall fundamentals have improved compared to July and August. Technically, the bullish force is stable and the bearish force is weakening, with the market returning to the 1150 - 1200 range. Although there are uncertainties about the anti - involution news and the market is expected to pull back, the fundamentals and macro factors are still favorable. It is recommended to partially take profits on the previous 01 long positions and focus on the support range of 1130 - 1140 for buying on pullbacks [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Investment Strategy - Main Logic: Last week, glass futures first declined and then rose. The supply side saw a slight increase in daily melting volume due to the ignition and复产 of a production line. The national inventory remained stable, with significant inventory increases in North China and inventory decreases in Hubei. The downstream mid - and long - term replenishment led to improved market trading sentiment. The supply and inventory pressure of soda ash is still high, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity of the soda - glass price difference. In the future, the fundamentals are expected to improve, but the market may pull back [2]. - Operation Strategy: Buy on pullbacks [2][3] 2. Market Review - Futures Price - Spot Price: As of September 5, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,140 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1,090 yuan/ton in Central China (unchanged), and 1,200 yuan/ton in East China (unchanged). - Futures Price: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 1,189 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan from the previous week [9][10] 3. Market Review - Basis - Soda - Glass Price Difference: As of September 5, the soda futures price was 1,302 yuan/ton, and the glass futures price was 1,189 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 113 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 149 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan). - Contract Price Difference: Last Friday, the 01 - 05 price difference was - 198 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan) [16] 4. Profit - The cost and gross profit of glass production using different processes changed little. The natural gas - based process had a cost of 1,579 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) and a gross profit of - 379 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan); the coal - gas - based process had a cost of 1,154 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan) and a gross profit of - 14 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan); the petroleum - coke - based process had a cost of 1,093 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) and a gross profit of - 3 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan) [19] 5. Supply - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 159,455 tons/day (up 600 tons). Currently, there are 225 production lines in operation. A production line in Hunan Zhuzhou Qibin resumed production last week [21] 6. Inventory - As of September 5, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 63.05 million weight boxes (up 484,000 weight boxes). The inventory in North China increased significantly, while that in Hubei decreased [25] 7. Deep - processing - Production and Sales Rate: On September 4, the comprehensive production and sales rate of float glass was 88% (down 8%). - LOW - E Glass: On September 5, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 48.1% (unchanged). - Order Availability Days: At the beginning of September, the order days of glass deep - processing were 10.4 days (up 0.75 days) [31] 8. Demand - Automobile - In July, China's automobile production was 2.591 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 203,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 305,000 vehicles; sales were 2.593 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 311,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 331,000 vehicles. - In July, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in China was 987,000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 54% [40] 9. Demand - Real Estate - In July, China's real estate completion area was 24.6739 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 29%; new construction area was 48.4168 million square meters (down 15%); construction area was 54.0957 million square meters (down 16%); and commercial housing sales area was 57.0945 million square meters (down 8%). - From August 25 to August 31, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.07 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 26% and a year - on - year increase of 6%. - In July, real estate development investment was 692.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17% [47] 10. Cost - Soda - Spot Price - As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda in North China was 1,325 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan); in East China was 1,250 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan); in Central China was 1,300 yuan/ton (unchanged); and in South China was 1,450 yuan/ton (unchanged). - Last Friday, the soda 2601 contract closed at 1,302 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), and the basis of the soda Central China 09 contract was - 2 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan) [50][54] 11. Cost - Soda - Profit - As of last Friday, the profit of soda enterprises using the ammonia - alkali method was - 37 yuan/ton (down 37 yuan), and the profit using the co - production method was - 48 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan) [57][59] 12. Cost - Soda - Production - Last week, the domestic soda production was 751,700 tons (a week - on - week increase of 32,600 tons), including 411,200 tons of heavy soda (a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons) and 340,500 tons of light soda (a week - on - week decrease of 4,600 tons). The loss was 120,300 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 32,800 tons). - At the end of last week, the exchange soda warehouse receipts were 18,484 (a week - on - week increase of 2,487). As of September 5, the national in - factory inventory of soda was 1.8221 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of 45,400 tons) [64][65] 13. Cost - Soda - Apparent Consumption - Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda was 461,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 62,800 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda was 335,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28,100 tons. - Last week, the production and sales rate of soda was 106.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02%. In July, the soda inventory days of sample float glass factories were 25.8 days [70][75]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall idea is to go long on dips, considering the slowdown of the US labor market, the rising expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the loosening of Trump's tariff policy, the arrival of the domestic downstream demand peak season, and the approaching inventory inflection point. A long - AD short - AL arbitrage strategy is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Viewpoint - **Fundamental Analysis**: Guinea's bauxite prices rose by $0.2 per dry ton to $75 due to the rainy season and mining复产 uncertainties. Alumina operating capacity increased by 1.7 million tons to 96.75 million tons, and inventory rose by 112,000 tons to 3.609 million tons. Electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 30,000 tons to 44.399 million tons. Domestic downstream processing enterprises'开工 rate rose by 1% to 61.7%. Aluminum ingot and bar social inventory increased but at a slower pace. The secondary casting aluminum alloy industry recovered moderately, with increased but under - expected orders, and new policies pressured production [3]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see; for Shanghai aluminum, it is recommended to go long on dips; for casting aluminum alloy, it is recommended to go long on dips or use the long - AD short - AL strategy [4]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, inflation expectations, and the RMB exchange rate, but no specific analysis is provided [6][7]. 3.3. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply tightened, with stable prices in Shanxi and Henan due to strengthened safety supervision, environmental inspections, and rainfall. Guinea's bauxite prices rose due to the rainy season and复产 uncertainties [10]. 3.4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity was 114.62 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 96.75 million tons (up 1.7 million tons week - on - week), and the开工 rate was 84.4%. The domestic spot weighted price was 3,101 yuan/ton (down 82.4 yuan/ton week - on - week). National alumina inventory was 3.609 million tons (up 112,000 tons week - on - week). Newly put - into - production capacity in Shandong, Guangxi, and the north entered a stable - production state [14]. 3.5. Alumina Important High - Frequency Data - The report shows data on alumina basis, inventory, north - south price difference, and transportation volume, but no specific analysis is provided [16][17][18][19]. 3.6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity was 45.232 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), and the operating capacity was 44.399 million tons (up 30,000 tons week - on - week). The operating capacity increased steadily, with the resumption of production in Guizhou and the commissioning of replacement capacity in Yunnan Aluminum Yixin basically completed, and the remaining 50,000 - ton capacity of Baise Silver Sea's technical renovation project continuing to resume production [21]. 3.7. Electrolytic Aluminum Important High - Frequency Data - The report presents data on aluminum rod processing fees, Shanghai aluminum futures prices,动力煤 prices, and aluminum import profits, but no specific analysis is provided [25]. 3.8. Inventory - The report shows the historical data of aluminum bar, aluminum ingot, SHFE aluminum futures, and LME aluminum inventories, but no specific analysis is provided [27][28][29][30]. 3.9. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The开工 rate of secondary aluminum alloy leading enterprises rose by 1.8% to 55.3%. New policies pressured production, with some enterprises in Anhui and Jiangxi receiving tax - refund termination notices and some planning to implement new policies on September 1st. In September, the secondary aluminum industry recovered moderately, with increased but under - expected orders [33]. 3.10. Casting Aluminum Alloy Important High - Frequency Data - The report shows data on ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot prices, aluminum ingot and aluminum alloy price differences, aluminum alloy futures forward curves, and ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot import profits, but no specific analysis is provided [32][38][39]. 3.11. Downstream开工 - The开工 rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose by 1% to 61.7%. - **Aluminum Profiles**: The开工 rate rose by 1% to 53%. Industrial profiles' export demand increased due to the cancellation of component tax rebates, and automotive profiles' production was stable. Construction profiles' demand remained sluggish [46]. - **Aluminum Plates and Strips**: The开工 rate rose by 1.2% to 68.6%. With the arrival of the peak season, both domestic and foreign trade orders increased, and enterprises' willingness to stock raw materials and finished products strengthened [46]. - **Aluminum Cables and Wires**: The开工 rate rose by 1% to 64.8%. Although new orders were limited, existing orders provided support. State Grid orders were concentrated in the second half of the year, leading to different recovery rhythms in different regions [50]. - **Primary Aluminum Alloys**: The开工 rate rose by 0.2% to 56.6%. The traditional consumption peak season started, but the resumption of production in the aluminum bar and other primary processing sectors continued to divert molten aluminum, resulting in a slow recovery at the beginning of the peak season [50].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The expectation of anti - involution in the black sector has resurfaced, and the negative feedback logic has encountered obstacles. The black commodity prices rebounded strongly last Friday, but whether anti - involution policies in the steel industry will be implemented remains to be observed [3]. - For steel, it is expected that the price will first fall and then rise in September. It is advisable to buy on dips as the cost - performance of short - selling is low under low valuation. For coal and coke, it is recommended to conduct range trading or short - term trading and focus on the resumption of coking coal production. For iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see or conduct range trading [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector first fell and then rose last week, with raw materials stronger than finished products [3][5]. 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The trends are differentiated, and the volatility of the black sector is relatively small. 03 Spot Prices - The prices of rebar and scrap steel fell, while the price of iron ore rose [9][10]. 04 Profit and Valuation - Steel mills' profitability is acceptable, and the valuation of rebar futures is relatively low [11]. 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel inventories continued to accumulate during the off - season and have exceeded last year's levels [3][13]. 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Iron ore shipments have rebounded significantly, while pig iron production has dropped sharply [22]. 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Coking coal production has declined significantly, and inventories have been depleted again [25]. 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production has declined slightly, and coke enterprise inventories are relatively low [27]. 09 Variety Spreads - Steel mills' on - paper profits continue to decline [29]. 10 Key Data/Policy/News - The National Bureau of Statistics data shows that China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The US employment data was lower than expected, and traders bet that the Fed would further cut interest rates. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August expanded for the first time since mid - 2022 [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are expected to run in a volatile pattern in the short - term and are bullish in the long - term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds suggest maintaining a wait - and - see attitude [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Coking coal and rebar suggest range trading; Glass suggests buying on dips [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper suggests moderately holding long positions at low levels; Aluminum suggests buying on dips after pullbacks; Nickel suggests waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies; Tin suggests range trading; Gold and silver suggest range trading [1][10][11][16][17] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, urea, and methanol are expected to run in a volatile pattern; Rubber is expected to run with a moderately strong bias; Polyolefins are expected to run in a wide - range volatile pattern; Soda ash suggests a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage strategy [1][19][21][24][26][28][30][32] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to run in a volatile pattern; PTA is expected to run in a volatile pattern within the range of 4600 - 4950; Apples are expected to run with a moderately strong bias; Jujubes are expected to run with a moderately weak bias [1][33][34][35][36] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Live pigs suggest shorting on rallies; Eggs suggest shorting on rallies; Corn is expected to run in a range - bound pattern; Soybean meal is expected to have limited upside; Oils and fats are expected to have high - level adjustments [1][37][39][40][41][42][43][45][46] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and macro - economic conditions. It analyzes the short - term and long - term trends of each product and gives corresponding investment strategies such as buying on dips, shorting on rallies, range trading, and arbitrage [1][5][7][9][10][11][16][17][19][21][24][26][28][30][32][33][34][35][36][37][39][40][41][42][43][45][46] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Index futures**: The A - share market was volatile on Thursday. Short - term fluctuations are due to technical consolidation needs, but the adjustment is a healthy turnover rather than a trend reversal. It is bullish in the long - term and suggests buying on dips [5] - **Treasury bonds**: The bond market has relatively low risks in the short - term. Although the bond yield has been rising recently, the stage top has appeared, and it is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude [5] 3.2 Black building materials - **Coking coal**: The pit - mouth price has increased recently. It is recommended to focus on the range of [1030 - 1230] for trading [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price has been rising recently. The supply - demand relationship has weakened in reality, but the price is expected to fall first and then rise in September. It is recommended to conduct range trading within the core range of [3000 - 3300] for the RB2601 contract [7] - **Glass**: The supply is relatively stable, and the demand has improved recently. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the 01 contract paying attention to the support level of 1110 - 1120 [9] 3.3 Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The price is mainly affected by macro factors and is in a high - level volatile pattern. It is expected to have an upward trend in the future due to the approaching peak season. It is recommended to moderately hold long positions at low levels [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The bauxite supply is affected by the rainy season in Guinea, and the demand is gradually entering the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips or conduct a long AD and short AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The supply is in an oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to run in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [16] - **Tin**: The supply improvement is limited, and the demand is weak during the off - season. It is recommended to conduct range trading within the range of 26 - 280,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 10 contract [16] - **Silver and gold**: The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has increased, and the prices of precious metals have rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips after price corrections, with the SHFE silver 10 contract referring to the range of 9000 - 9800 and the SHFE gold 10 contract referring to the range of 775 - 820 [17] 3.4 Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export support may weaken. It is expected to run in a volatile pattern in the short - term, with the 01 contract paying attention to the range of 4700 - 5000 [19][20] - **Caustic soda**: Affected by the warehouse receipt pressure and the short - term peak of the spot price, the price is expected to run in a volatile pattern. The 01 contract is expected to run within the range of 2530 - 2680 [21][23] - **Styrene**: The cost and profit are under pressure, and the supply - demand relationship is weak. It is expected to run in a volatile pattern, paying attention to the range of 6900 - 7200 [24][25] - **Rubber**: The raw material price is high, and the inventory is in a destocking cycle. It is expected to run with a moderately strong bias, paying attention to the support level of 15600 [26][27] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The inventory is accumulating. It is expected to run in a volatile pattern, paying attention to the support level of 1680 - 1720 [28] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, and the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is expected to increase. It is expected to run in a volatile pattern [30] - **Polyolefins**: The supply and demand are both improving, but the demand improvement is relatively limited. It is expected to run in a volatile pattern, with the L2601 contract paying attention to the range of 7200 - 7500 and the PP2601 contract paying attention to the range of 6900 - 7200 [30][31] - **Soda ash**: The supply is expected to remain at a high level, and the demand from photovoltaic glass has improved. It is recommended to adopt a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage strategy [32] 3.5 Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global supply - demand situation has improved, but the new cotton output is expected to increase significantly. The price is expected to be under downward pressure in the future. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33][34] - **PTA**: The inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to run in a volatile pattern with a moderately strong bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure level of 4900 [34][35] - **Apples**: The prices of early - maturing apples are higher than last year, and the market is expected to run with a moderately strong bias [35][36] - **Jujubes**: The consumption is weak, and the price is expected to run with a moderately weak bias [36] 3.6 Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Live pigs**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is growing slowly. The price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the 11 contract's pressure level at 13700 - 14000 and the 01 contract's pressure level at 14000 - 14300. It is also recommended to pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage strategy [37][38][39] - **Eggs**: The supply is relatively sufficient, and the price may rebound slightly in the short - term. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 10 and 11 contracts and wait and see for the 12 and 01 contracts [40][41] - **Corn**: The supply is relatively sufficient, and the price is expected to run in a range - bound pattern. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short for the 11 contract and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage strategy [42] - **Soybean meal**: The domestic arrival volume is sufficient from September to October, and the price is under pressure, but it is supported by the cost. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 3030 for the M2601 contract [43][45] - **Oils and fats**: The short - term prices are under pressure, but the downward adjustment space is limited. It is recommended to wait for the end of the correction and then go long, with the 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil having support levels at 8200 - 8300, 9200 - 9100, and 9700 - 9600 respectively [46][48][49][52]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are recommended to hold off [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended to buy on dips [1][7][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions moderately at low levels; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips after pull - backs; Nickel is recommended to hold off or short on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][11][16][18]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC is expected to oscillate weakly; Caustic soda and urea are expected to oscillate; Soda ash is for short 01 and long 05 arbitrage; Styrene is expected to oscillate weakly; Rubber is expected to oscillate strongly; Methanol and polyolefins are expected to oscillate widely [1][21][24][27][30][32][33]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to oscillate; Apples are expected to oscillate strongly; Red dates are expected to oscillate weakly [1][37][38][39]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Hogs and eggs are recommended to short on rallies; Corn is for range trading; Soybean meal's upside is limited; Oils are expected to adjust at high levels [1][42][44][45][47][49]. Core Views - The A - share market is expected to maintain an upward - trending oscillation in the medium - to - long - term, with the "15th Five - Year Plan" and policy reforms likely to release positive effects. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the support level of the Shanghai Composite Index [5]. - In the black building materials sector, the supply and demand of coking coal and rebar are complex, and glass demand may pick up in the short - term [7][8][9]. - Non - ferrous metals are affected by macro factors and supply - demand relationships. Copper and aluminum may have upward potential due to demand growth, while nickel may be under pressure [11][12][16]. - Energy chemicals are facing challenges in supply - demand balance, with PVC and styrene under pressure, and rubber showing strength [21][27]. - In the cotton textile industry chain, the supply - demand situation of cotton and PTA is complex, and apples may perform strongly [37][38]. - Agricultural and livestock products are influenced by supply - demand and seasonal factors. Hogs and eggs are under pressure, while oils may adjust at high levels [42][44][49]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Finance - **Index Futures**: On Wednesday, the A - share market was volatile and differentiated. The market trading activity remained high, and it is expected to oscillate upwards in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term attention should be paid to the support of the Shanghai Composite Index's 20 - day moving average, and long positions in IH and IF with performance certainty and high dividends can be considered on dips [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Wednesday, both the equity and bond markets had increased volatility. The bond market's yield accelerated downward after the equity market reached a short - term inflection point. In the short - term, it is recommended to hold off and pay attention to the trading volume and intraday volatility of the equity market [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Safety supervision has tightened, and the coal market is in a stalemate. Port prices are falling, and it is recommended to trade in the range of 1030 - 1230 for coking coal [7][8]. - **Rebar**: On Wednesday, rebar futures prices oscillated weakly. The supply and demand situation is complex, with an increase in production and inventory. It is expected to fall first and then rise in September, and range trading is recommended in the range of 3000 - 3300 for RB2601 [8]. - **Glass**: Supply is relatively stable, and inventory has decreased in some regions due to increased downstream replenishment. Demand has improved at the end of the month, and it is recommended to buy on dips, with attention paid to the support level of 1110 - 1120 for the 01 contract [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: This week, copper prices were mainly affected by macro factors, oscillating in a high - level range. Supply has increased, and demand is resilient. It is recommended to hold long positions moderately at low levels, with a short - term operating range of 78500 - 80500 yuan/ton [11]. - **Aluminum**: The bauxite supply is affected by the rainy season in Guinea. Alumina production capacity has decreased slightly, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity has increased. Demand is picking up in the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips or engage in long AD and short AL arbitrage [12]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market is in a state of oversupply in the medium - to - long - term. Nickel ore prices are stable, and nickel iron and stainless steel prices are under pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly [16][17]. - **Tin**: Domestic refined tin production has increased, and tin concentrate imports have decreased. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and it is recommended to trade in the range of 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 10 contract [17]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by Trump's influence on the Fed's independence and Powell's dovish speech, the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut has increased. Precious metals prices have rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips after price corrections, with reference ranges of 775 - 820 for the SHFE gold 10 contract and 9000 - 9800 for the SHFE silver 10 contract [18][19]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: PVC is facing high inventory and uncertain export sustainability. Supply pressure is high, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with attention paid to the 5000 - level pressure for the 01 contract [21][23]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by warehouse receipts and short - term spot price peaks, the futures price has fallen. Supply is decreasing, and demand is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with attention paid to the 2650 - level support for the 01 contract [24][26]. - **Styrene**: Crude oil prices are under pressure, and the supply - demand of pure benzene is deteriorating. Styrene inventory is abundant, and demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with attention paid to the 7200 - level pressure [26][27]. - **Rubber**: Raw material prices are high, and inventory is decreasing. The market price is stable and strong. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with attention paid to the 15600 - level support [27][29]. - **Urea**: Supply has increased, and demand is weak. Inventory is accumulating. It is expected to be weak first and then strong in the short - term, with attention paid to the 1680 - 1720 support [30][31]. - **Methanol**: The supply of methanol has increased, and the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is expected to rise. Inventory has increased. It is expected to oscillate [32][33]. - **Polyolefins**: The traditional consumption peak season is coming, and downstream demand is expected to improve. Polyethylene supply pressure has eased, while polypropylene production is increasing. It is expected to have support at the bottom, with L2601 focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range and PP2601 on the 6900 - 7200 range [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is sluggish, and supply is expected to remain high. Demand from photovoltaic glass is improving, while float glass sales are weakening. It is recommended to conduct short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [34][36]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has improved. However, the increase in new cotton production may put pressure on prices. Hedging preparations are recommended [37]. - **PTA**: PTA inventory has decreased, and there is a possibility that OPEC will suspend production increases in September. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with attention paid to the 4900 - level pressure [38]. - **Apples**: Early - maturing apples are on the market, and the price is higher than last year. The inventory apple market is stable. The price is expected to remain strong [38]. - **Red Dates**: Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugar - increasing stage. The market price is stable, but consumption is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [39][41]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Hogs**: The pig price is under pressure due to large supply. The 01 contract may be supported by the peak - season expectation, while the 03 and 05 contracts are weaker. Short positions can be considered on rallies, and long 05 and short 03 arbitrage can be paid attention to [42][43]. - **Eggs**: The spot price may rebound slightly, but the supply is sufficient. The near - month contracts may fall to correct the premium. Short positions can be considered on rallies for the 10 and 11 contracts, and long - term contracts can be observed [44]. - **Corn**: It is the period of new and old crop connection, and supply is sufficient. The 11 - contract valuation should not be overly bearish. Short positions can be considered on rallies, and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage can be paid attention to [45][46]. - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic arrival of soybeans is abundant from September to October, and prices are under pressure from state reserves sales. However, cost support limits the downside. Attention should be paid to the 3030 support of the M2601 contract [47][49]. - **Oils**: Short - term support levels for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts are 8200 - 8300, 9200 - 9100, and 9700 - 9600 respectively. Long positions can be considered after the correction [49][54].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro finance: The stock index is recommended to be moderately long at low levels in the medium and long term, and government bonds are recommended to be on the sidelines [1][5] - Black building materials: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading, and glass is recommended to be long at low levels [1][7][9] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper is recommended to be moderately long at low levels, aluminum is recommended to be long at low levels after a pullback, nickel is recommended to be on the sidelines or short at high levels, tin is recommended for range trading, and gold and silver are recommended for range trading [1][10][11][16][18] - Energy and chemicals: PVC and styrene are expected to be weakly volatile, caustic soda and rubber are expected to be strongly volatile, soda ash is recommended for shorting 01 and going long 05 arbitrage, urea and methanol are expected to be volatile, and polyolefins are expected to be widely volatile [1][20][21][24][26][27][28][32] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton, cotton yarn, PTA, and jujube are expected to be volatile, and apples are expected to be strongly volatile [1][33][34][35][36] - Agricultural and livestock products: Pigs and eggs are recommended to be short at high levels, corn is expected to be widely volatile, soybean meal is expected to have limited upside, and oils are expected to be adjusted at high levels [1][37][39][40][43][46] Core Views - The A - share market has short - term fluctuations but the medium - term repair trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long during corrections. The bond market lacks short - term positive drivers and is recommended to be on the sidelines [5] - The coal market price is in a stalemate, and the rebar price is expected to fall first and then rise in September. The glass market may have a phased recovery in demand and is recommended to be long at low levels [7][9] - The copper price is expected to be strong in the later stage due to the shift from the off - season to the peak season. The aluminum market is recommended to be long at low levels considering the peak season demand. The nickel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium and long term, and the tin market is recommended for range trading [10][11][16] - The PVC market is expected to be weakly volatile due to high inventory and uncertain export sustainability. The caustic soda market is expected to have low - long opportunities during the peak season. The styrene market is expected to be weakly volatile, and the rubber market is expected to be strongly volatile [20][23][24][26] - The urea price is expected to be weak first and then strong in the short term. The methanol market has a supply - demand balance with increased demand from methanol - to - olefins. The polyolefin market is expected to have support at the bottom, and the L - PP spread is expected to widen [27][28][30] - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the short term but may face downward pressure in the future. The PTA market is expected to be volatile and is currently in a de - stocking stage. The apple market is expected to be strongly volatile, and the jujube market is expected to be stable [33][34][35][36] - The pig market has limited upside due to large supply, and the egg market is recommended to be short at high levels. The corn market is expected to be range - bound, the soybean meal price has limited upside, and the oil market is expected to be adjusted at high levels [37][39][40][41][43][46] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Stock Index: On Tuesday, the A - share market was volatile and adjusted. There is a possibility of a technical correction in the short term, but the medium - term repair trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long during corrections [5] - Government Bonds: The bond market continued to be volatile on Tuesday. In the short term, there is a lack of positive drivers, and the downward space for interest rates is limited. It is recommended to be on the sidelines [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: The coal market price is in a stalemate. The downstream demand is weak, and the number of coal mines on training leave has increased, intensifying market caution [7] - Rebar: On Tuesday, the rebar futures price was narrowly volatile. The fundamentals show an increase in demand, production, and inventory. The static valuation is neutral to low. It is expected that the price will fall first and then rise in September, and range trading is recommended [7] - Glass: The supply is stable, and the inventory has decreased slightly in some regions. The demand has improved at the end of the month. Considering the peak season and macro - sentiment, it is recommended to be long at low levels [9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price is mainly affected by macro factors and is in a high - level range. The demand is expected to increase in the peak season, and it is recommended to be moderately long at low levels [10] - Aluminum: The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season in Guinea. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily, and the demand is warming up in the peak season. It is recommended to be long at low levels [11] - Nickel: The nickel market is in a state of over - supply in the medium and long term, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [16] - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand from the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. It is recommended for range trading [16] - Gold and Silver: The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is rising, and the prices of precious metals are expected to have support below. It is recommended to be long at low levels after a pullback [18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export support is uncertain, and it is expected to be weakly volatile [20] - Caustic Soda: Affected by rumors and warehouse receipts, the price has fallen. The demand is expected to increase in the peak season, and there are low - long opportunities [23] - Styrene: The cost is under pressure, the supply is abundant, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weakly volatile [24] - Rubber: The cost is rising, the inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [26] - Urea: The supply is increasing, the demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to be weak first and then strong [27] - Methanol: The supply is increasing, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is expected to increase, and the market is expected to be volatile [28] - Polyolefins: The traditional peak season is coming, the demand is expected to be boosted, and the supply pressure is relieved for polyethylene. It is expected to have support at the bottom, and the L - PP spread is expected to widen [30] - Soda Ash: The spot market is sluggish, the supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is improving. It is recommended for shorting 01 and going long 05 arbitrage [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply and demand are improving, but the new cotton output is expected to increase, and the price may face downward pressure. Hedging is recommended [33] - PTA: The device is under maintenance, the supply is decreasing, and the demand is stable. It is in a de - stocking stage and is expected to be volatile [34] - Apple: The price of early - maturing apples is polarized, and the inventory apple market is stable. The price is expected to be strongly volatile [35] - Jujube: The Xinjiang jujube is in the sugar - increasing stage, and the price is expected to be stable [36] Agricultural and Livestock Products - Pigs: The short - term price has a limited upside due to large supply, and the medium - and long - term price is under pressure. It is recommended to short at high levels and consider arbitrage [37][39] - Eggs: The short - term price may rebound slightly, but the supply is sufficient. It is recommended to be short at high levels for near - term contracts and wait and see for far - term contracts [39][40] - Corn: The supply is sufficient during the transition period between old and new crops, and the cost support is weakening. It is recommended for range trading and arbitrage [41][42] - Soybean Meal: The domestic supply is abundant from September to October, and the price is under pressure, but there is cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level [44][45] - Oils: The short - term price is under pressure from multiple negative factors, but there is also support. It is recommended to wait and see during the correction and then go long [46][52]