1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the black sector rose first and then fell, with raw materials outperforming finished products, especially coking coal, whose price increased significantly. The Iran-US negotiation news led to a decline in crude oil prices and a cooling atmosphere in the futures market. The focus of the macro - policy remains on the Middle East situation, and the "negotiation" between the US and Iran is still uncertain, which will continue to affect the global market in the short term. In terms of the industrial pattern, steel demand is continuously recovering, and steel inventories continued to decline last week. On the raw material side, coking coal production has returned to a normal - to - high level since last year, and iron ore shipments are at a seasonal low [3]. - Steel, coking coal, coke, and iron ore are all expected to move in a volatile manner. For steel, the futures price of rebar is below the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces, with a relatively low static valuation. The demand is still recovering, and the inventory is declining, but the de - stocking speed is not fast. For coking coal, domestic production continues to rise, and the total inventory slightly accumulates, with downstream inventory increasing and upstream mines de - stocking. For coke, production slightly increased last week, and the total inventory increased, with independent coking plants de - stocking and steel mills and ports increasing inventory. For iron ore, with the resumption of steel mills' production, hot metal output continued to increase last week, but it is still lower than the same period last year and has room for further growth. Iron ore shipments and arrivals are at a seasonal low, and the inventories of steel mills and ports both decreased last week [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison: Rise and Fall - The black sector rose first and then fell last week, with raw materials performing better than finished products, and coking coal prices rising significantly [3][5] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison: Lithium Carbonate Soars, Crude Oil Drops - In the futures market, lithium carbonate had a large increase, while crude oil prices dropped due to the news of the Iran - US negotiation [3][7] 03 Spot Price: Coking Coal Rises Sharply, Iron Ore and Scrap Steel Fall - The spot price of coking coal increased significantly, while iron ore and scrap steel prices decreased [9] 04 Profit and Valuation: Poor Steel Mill Profits, Low Rebar Futures Valuation - Steel mills' profitability is poor, and the futures price of rebar is below the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces, with a relatively low static valuation [4][11] 05 Steel Supply and Demand: Demand Continues to Recover, Inventory Continues to Decline - Steel demand is continuing to recover, and steel inventories are continuously declining. However, the current de - stocking speed is not fast, and the quality of demand needs further attention [4][13] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand: Hot Metal Output Increases, Steel Mill and Port Inventories Decrease - With the resumption of steel mills' production, hot metal output continued to increase last week, but it is still lower than the same period last year and has room for further growth. Recent iron ore shipments and arrivals are at a seasonal low, and the inventories of steel mills and ports both decreased last week [4][22] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand: Raw Coal Production Increases, Inventory Transfers to Downstream - Domestic coking coal production continues to rise and is at a normal - to - high level since last year. The total coking coal inventory slightly accumulates, with downstream inventory increasing and upstream mines de - stocking [4][25] 08 Coke Supply and Demand: Production Recovers from a Low Level, Port Inventory Increases Significantly - Coke production slightly increased last week, and the total inventory increased, with independent coking plants de - stocking and steel mills and ports increasing inventory [4][27] 09 Variety Price Difference: Steel Mill Profits Decline, Coke/Coking Coal Ratio Drops - Steel mill profits are declining, and the coke/coking coal ratio is decreasing [29] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - Iran put forward six conditions for a cease - fire, including ensuring no more war, closing US military bases in the Middle East, and having the aggressor pay compensation to Iran. The "Shanghai Seven" real - estate policy has been in effect for one month, and the cumulative net signing of second - hand houses in Shanghai from March 1 to March 24 increased by 3% year - on - year. The IEA warned that it may take six months to restore oil and gas supply in the Persian Gulf, and the world is facing the most serious energy crisis in history. Domestic gasoline and diesel prices were adjusted upwards on March 23. Goldman Sachs said that the probability of the US economy falling into a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 30%. The US government put forward a 15 - condition plan to end the conflict with Iran through Pakistan, and the US is considering a one - month cease - fire. US President Trump will visit China in mid - May. Zimbabwe's lithium export ban has continued for nearly a month, and the impact may exceed market expectations. Russia will temporarily stop ammonium nitrate exports for one month. Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to 8 pm on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of domestic bauxite remains stable, while the mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore has increased by $3.4 per dry ton to $67 per dry ton due to rising shipping costs. The export restriction measures for Guinea's bauxite will be relatively mild, and the policy is expected to be officially introduced soon. The operating capacity of alumina has increased by 50,000 tons to 93.75 million tons, and the national alumina inventory has increased by 10,000 tons to 5.379 million tons. The current industry profit has been repaired, and enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain stable production. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased by 30,000 tons to 44.786 million tons. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is gradually affecting the production of electrolytic aluminum in the region, and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices has raised concerns about aluminum plant production cuts. Two major aluminum plants in the Middle East were attacked over the weekend, and the extent of capacity damage is currently unknown. On the demand side, the weekly average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 1.1% to 64%. Downstream operations are gradually picking up, entering the peak season rhythm, but demand is also suppressed by the sharp fluctuations in high aluminum prices. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of aluminum ingots is still waiting for a turning point. For recycled cast aluminum alloys, new orders for recycled aluminum plants are insufficient, and there is insufficient impetus for the operating rate to recover. Due to concerns about supply, aluminum prices are expected to be boosted, and attention should be paid to the development of the situation [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve, US dollar index, US Treasury yields, and RMB exchange rates, but no specific analysis or conclusions are provided [5]. 3.2 Bauxite - The price of domestic bauxite remains stable. Mines in Shanxi, Henan and other places are gradually resuming production, but fundamental issues such as mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental supervision are difficult to fundamentally resolve in the short term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore has increased by $3.4 per dry ton to $67 per dry ton. Although some mining enterprises have signed long - term shipping agreements, some long - term agreement prices are linked to oil prices, and the sharp increase in shipping costs, combined with Guinea's plan to restrict bauxite exports, has pushed up the price of imported ore from Guinea. According to ALD, the export restriction measures for Guinea's bauxite will be relatively mild, and the Guinean Ministry of Mines has held talks with relevant mining enterprises, and the policy is expected to be officially introduced soon [8]. 3.3 Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 93.75 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 89.7%. The weighted price of domestic spot alumina was 2,788 yuan per ton, an increase of 15.7 yuan per ton week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 5.379 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week. National alumina enterprises are operating relatively stably. The current industry profit has been repaired, and enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain stable production. The second phase of a large alumina plant in Hebei is in a state of full shutdown at the roasting end due to policy influence. Currently, the group is accelerating the construction progress of the second and third phases of the roasting furnaces in Jiayuguan, with an expected construction period of 7 - 9 months. Guinean officials said they will restrict bauxite exports, but the measures are expected to be relatively mild, and alumina is expected to show a wide - range bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term [11]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.462 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week; the operating capacity was 44.786 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons week - on - week. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will gradually affect the production of electrolytic aluminum in the region, and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices has raised concerns about production cuts at European aluminum plants. In terms of new production capacity, 350,000 tons of Zha Aluminum are under construction, and the second phase of 80,000 tons of Tianshan Aluminum is still under construction. In terms of resuming production, 300,000 tons of Liaoning Zhongwang have started to resume production, and Guangxi Longlin is accelerating the revitalization of 57,100 tons of idle production capacity. Overseas, the first - phase 120,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of Huatong Angola is under construction and may reach full production in the second quarter; the first batch of 500,000 tons of the North Kalimantan electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia is under construction; the Slovak government will seek to restart the Slovalco aluminum plant with a capacity of about 200,000 tons that has been shut down; the about 200,000 - ton production capacity reduction of the Grundartangi electrolytic aluminum plant in Iceland will start to resume production at the end of April, six months earlier than originally planned; two major aluminum plants in Bahrain and the UAE were attacked over the weekend, and the extent of capacity damage is currently unknown; Qatar Aluminum has decided to stop further production cuts and will maintain an operating level of about 60%; the 580,000 - ton capacity of the Mozal aluminum plant in Mozambique has entered a maintenance and maintenance state [20]. 3.5 Inventory - The report presents data on the social inventory of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventory, and LME aluminum inventory from 2022 to 2026, but no specific analysis or conclusions are provided [24][25][26][27]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The weekly average operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises remained stable at 59.5%. Some downstream enterprises still face profit pressure, and some die - casting enterprises exporting to the Middle East are facing transportation obstacles. They mainly purchase raw materials based on rigid demand and have a weak willingness to stock up. The recovery rhythm of the demand peak season is lower than expected, new orders for recycled aluminum plants are insufficient, production enthusiasm is not high, and there is insufficient impetus for the operating rate to recover [30]. 3.7 Downstream Operations - The weekly average operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1.1% to 64%. - Aluminum profiles: The weekly average operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises increased by 4% to 59%. In the industrial profile sector, the demand in new energy fields such as automobiles and batteries has been good recently, driving up the operating rate of relevant enterprises; orders related to electricity such as power pipelines and transformers have performed well. In the construction profile sector, the decline in aluminum prices has provided some boost to the construction market demand, and downstream orders have increased month - on - month. - Aluminum strips: The weekly average operating rate of aluminum strip leading enterprises increased by 1% to 71%. The aluminum strip market has been stable, and leading enterprises have been producing steadily. In terms of terminal consumption, the downstream demand for energy storage has been continuously strong, and the capacity utilization rate of leading battery cell enterprises has been at a high level, providing support for aluminum strip materials such as battery casings and brazing materials related to energy storage. - Aluminum cables: The weekly average operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises increased by 1% to 66%. Currently, it is a critical period for power grid construction material preparation. Coupled with the accelerated implementation of UHV and power transmission and transformation projects, the characteristics of the peak demand season in the industry are prominent. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm is high, the delivery rhythm is tight, and the supply - tight pattern continues. The promotion rhythm of major projects this year has accelerated, with the start of the ±800 kV UHV project from Inner Mongolia West to Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei and the resumption of the 1000 kV project from Datong to Huailai to Tianjin South, as well as the intensive promotion of 500 kV and 200 kV power transmission and transformation projects. - Primary aluminum alloy: The weekly average operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises increased by 0.8% to 55%. Terminal consumption has maintained a moderate growth. After the previous inventory has been digested to a certain extent, production enterprises are gradually and steadily increasing their operating levels and increasing output to deliver long - term orders [38][43][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, and investors are advised to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to short on rebounds [1][9][10][11] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is advised to hold short positions moderately at high prices; aluminum is recommended to strengthen observation; nickel is suggested to wait and see; tin is for range trading; gold and silver are expected to trade sideways; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][14][17][19][20][22][23][25] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be bullish with sideways movement; rubber is recommended to be long on dips without chasing highs; urea and methanol are for range trading; soda ash is advised to short at high prices [1][26][28][29][31][32][34][35][37] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish with sideways movement; apples and red dates are expected to trade sideways [1][39][40][41] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, contracts 05 and 07 have limited rebound, and short - selling at high levels is recommended; for eggs, be cautious about chasing up near - month contracts; corn is expected to trade in a short - term range; soybean meal contract 05 should focus on the support performance at 2900 - 2950; for oils and fats, reduce long positions gradually [1][43][45][46][47][48] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation, especially the Iran - US conflict, has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets, causing price fluctuations in various assets [5][15][17][22][23] - Different industries and commodities have different supply - demand relationships and price trends. For example, some commodities are affected by supply disruptions, while others are influenced by changes in demand or cost factors [9][15][25][34] - Investors should pay attention to various factors such as geopolitical events, macroeconomic data, and industry - specific policies when making investment decisions [27][35][46] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Affected by the Iran - US situation, it may trade sideways in the short term but is bullish in the medium to long term. Investors are advised to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - end has limited downward movement, and the long - end spread has room for repair. Overall, it is expected to trade sideways [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Domestic production is rising, and inventory is accumulating. It is suitable for short - term trading [9] - **Rebar**: The price is at a low static valuation, and the demand is recovering. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term [10] - **Glass**: The cost hype has weakened, and the demand is not good. It is recommended to short on rebounds [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by macro factors, it is under pressure at high levels. Although there is support from domestic consumption, it still has downward risks. Short positions can be held moderately at high prices [14][15][16] - **Aluminum**: The price is affected by the situation in the Middle East. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to stabilize before entering the market to buy [17] - **Nickel**: The supply and demand are complex, and the price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement. It is suggested to wait and see [19] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the consumption is in a recovery stage. It is recommended to trade in a range [20][21] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the Middle East situation and economic data, they are expected to trade sideways. It is recommended to wait and see [22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand are both increasing, and it is expected to trade in a range [25] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, but there is support from exports. It is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [26][27] - **Caustic Soda**: Supported by export and downstream replenishment, it is expected to be bullish with sideways movement. Be cautious about chasing up [28] - **Styrene**: Supported by cost and exports, it is expected to be bullish with sideways movement. Long on dips without chasing highs [29][30] - **Polyolefins**: Supported by cost and improving supply - demand, it is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [31] - **Rubber**: Affected by cost and inventory, it is expected to be bullish with sideways movement. Long on dips without chasing highs [32] - **Urea**: The supply is high, and the demand is supported by agriculture. It is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [34] - **Methanol**: The supply and demand are in a complex situation, and it is expected to be bullish with range trading [35][36] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is excessive, and the price is under pressure. Short at high prices [37] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply is increasing, and the domestic demand is strong. It is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [39] - **Apples**: The market is in a two - level differentiation state, and the price is expected to trade sideways [40] - **Red Dates**: The acquisition price is stable, and the market is expected to trade sideways [41] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the supply exceeds demand, and the price is in a bottom - building stage. Contracts 05 and 07 have limited rebound, and short - selling at high levels is recommended [43][44] - **Eggs**: The price is rising steadily, but be cautious about chasing up near - month contracts [45] - **Corn**: The supply and demand are in a balanced state, and it is expected to trade in a short - term range [46] - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by multiple factors, contract 05 should focus on the support performance at 2900 - 2950 [47] - **Oils and Fats**: The price is at a high level and is expected to trade sideways. Reduce long positions gradually [48][49][50][51][52]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term and recommend buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5][6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal suggests short - term trading; rebar recommends range trading; glass suggests selling out - of - the - money call options [1][9][10][11]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper recommends moderately shorting at high levels; aluminum suggests strengthening observation; nickel and tin recommend range trading; gold and silver are expected to trade sideways; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][14][17][18][20][21][23][24]. - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to trade with a bullish bias; soda ash recommends shorting at high levels; rubber recommends buying on dips without chasing highs; urea and methanol recommend range trading [1][26][28][29][31][32][33][35][36]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade with a bullish bias; apples and jujubes are expected to trade sideways [1][39][40][42]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, adopt a bearish approach on rebounds for contracts 05 and 07, and treat contract 09 sideways; eggs are expected to trade in a range; corn is expected to trade in a short - term range; for soybean meal, be cautious about chasing long on contract 05; for oils and fats, gradually reduce previous long positions [1][44][46][47][49][50]. Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations (e.g., the Iran - US conflict), economic data, and supply - demand relationships. Different sectors have different trends and investment strategies based on their specific fundamentals [5][14][26]. Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: In the medium to long term, they are bullish. Due to the Iran - US situation and other factors, they may trade sideways in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade sideways. The domestic capital market may remain loose in the short term, but the repair of the long - short spread may be affected by geopolitical and oil price factors [6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The domestic coking coal production has recovered, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The short - term price is bullish, and short - term trading is recommended [9]. - **Rebar**: The futures price is in a narrow - range sideways movement. The valuation is low, and the demand is recovering. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and range trading is recommended [10]. - **Glass**: The supply has decreased, the inventory has continued to decline but at a slower pace, and the demand is general. The raw material soda ash is under pressure. It is expected to trade sideways with a bearish bias, and selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended [11][12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is under pressure from multiple factors such as inflation, a strong US dollar, and high inventory, but the domestic consumption season and inventory reduction will support the price. It is recommended to moderately short at high levels and closely monitor relevant factors [14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The cost is stable, the production capacity is increasing, the demand is affected by high prices, and the inventory is waiting for a turning point. It is recommended to strengthen observation and wait for a stable market sentiment to enter the market [17]. - **Nickel**: The nickel ore price is strong, but the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The overall price is expected to trade with a bullish bias, and it is recommended to observe [18][19]. - **Tin**: The production has decreased, the supply is tight, and the downstream demand is in a recovery stage. It is expected to trade in a wide range, and range trading is recommended [20]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate decision, the Iran situation, and economic data, they are expected to trade sideways. It is recommended to observe and trade cautiously [22][23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by mine production and imports, and the demand is strong. It is expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to relevant policy developments [24][25]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is low, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export is expected to maintain a high growth rate. It is expected to trade with a bullish bias in the short term, and trading within the rising - channel range is recommended [26]. - **Caustic Soda**: The demand is supported by alumina production and exports, and the supply may be affected by maintenance. It is expected to trade with a bullish bias, and be cautious about chasing highs [28]. - **Styrene**: Supported by cost and exports, the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to trade with a bullish bias, and buy on dips without chasing highs [29]. - **Polyolefins**: Supported by cost and with marginal improvement in supply - demand, they are expected to trade with a bullish bias. Attention should be paid to relevant factors [31]. - **Rubber**: Affected by synthetic rubber and inventory pressure, it is expected to trade sideways. It is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [32]. - **Urea**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is supported by agriculture and compound fertilizers, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to trade with a bullish bias, and range trading is recommended [33][34]. - **Methanol**: The supply and demand are both in a certain state, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to trade with a bullish bias, and range trading is recommended [35]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is expected to be high, and the inventory pressure is increasing. It is recommended to short at high levels [36][37]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production has increased, the consumption has decreased, and the inventory has increased. The domestic market is active, and the price is expected to trade with a bullish bias [39]. - **Apples**: The market is in a two - level differentiation state, and the price is generally stable [40][41]. - **Jujubes**: The raw material acquisition is based on quality, and the market is relatively stable [42]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the supply exceeds demand, and the price is in a bottom - building stage. For contracts 05 and 07, adopt a bearish approach on rebounds; for contract 09, treat it sideways [44][45]. - **Eggs**: The demand is supported by festivals, and the supply pressure is gradually relieved. It is expected to trade in a range, and be cautious about shorting on rebounds [46]. - **Corn**: The supply and demand are in a relatively balanced state, and it is expected to trade in a short - term range. Pay attention to relevant factors [48]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by factors such as the US - China relationship and South American production, the price is in a low - level range. Be cautious about chasing long on contract 05 [49]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short term, they are expected to trade at a high level. Gradually reduce previous long positions, and conduct range trading [50][54].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, selling out - of - the - money call options for glass [1][9][10][11] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Holding short positions moderately on copper at high prices, strengthening observation on aluminum, suggesting waiting and seeing on nickel, range trading for tin, expecting gold and silver to trade in a range, and interval oscillation for lithium carbonate [1][14][17][18][20][22][23][24] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be bullish in a range; selling short on soda ash at high prices; buying rubber on dips without chasing highs; range trading for urea and methanol [1][26][28][29][31][32][33][35][37] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish in a range; apples and jujubes are expected to trade in a range [1][39][40][42] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Taking a bearish stance on the 05 and 07 contracts of live pigs on rebounds, treating the 09 contract as range - bound; eggs are expected to trade in a range; corn is expected to have short - term interval oscillation; being cautious about chasing long on the 05 contract of soybean meal; reducing long positions gradually on oils and fats [1][44][46][47][49][50] Core Views - The global market is affected by multiple factors such as the Middle East situation, inflation, and interest rate policies. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment opportunities based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [5][6][15][17][22][23] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the medium to long term, they are bullish. Due to factors like the Iran - US game and inflation pressure, they may trade in a range in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: They are expected to trade in a range. The short - end shows limited downward movement, and the long - end spread has room for repair, but is affected by geopolitical and oil price factors [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading is recommended. Domestic coking coal production has increased, and the inventory structure is favorable. The market is trading the substitution effect of coal for oil and gas [9] - **Rebar**: Range trading is suggested. The price is currently below the electric furnace valley - electricity cost, and the inventory has peaked and declined. The price is expected to trade in a range in the short term [10] - **Glass**: Selling out - of - the - money call options is advised. The supply has decreased, the inventory reduction has slowed down, and the demand is general. The price is expected to be bearish in a range with a possibility of a small rebound [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Holding short positions moderately at high prices is recommended. The price is affected by macro factors, demand, and inventory. The short - term has downward risks, but there is also support from domestic inventory reduction and the consumption season [14][15] - **Aluminum**: Strengthening observation is recommended. The price is affected by factors such as raw material prices, production capacity changes, and the Middle East situation. It is suggested to wait for the market sentiment to stabilize before entering the market [17] - **Nickel**: Waiting and seeing is advised. The price is affected by factors such as nickel ore supply, refined nickel production and inventory, and downstream demand. It is expected to be bullish in a range [18][19] - **Tin**: Range trading is recommended. The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is stable. The price is expected to have wide - range oscillation [20] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to trade in a range. Affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate policy, the Middle East situation, and inflation, the medium - term price central axis has moved up [22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to have interval oscillation. The supply and demand are both increasing. Attention should be paid to the impact of supply - side disturbances and import volume changes [24][25] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to be bullish in a range. The cost is low, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export has support. Attention should be paid to policies and risk events [26] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to be bullish in a range. The demand has marginal support, the supply has maintenance expectations, and the price has a strong rebound under low valuation [28] - **Styrene**: It is expected to be bullish in a range. The cost is supported by rising oil prices, the inventory pressure is light, and it is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [29] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to be bullish in a range. The cost is supported by rising oil and gas prices, and the supply - demand situation has marginal improvement [31] - **Rubber**: Buying on dips without chasing highs is recommended. The cost is supported, but the inventory pressure is large. It is expected to be in a range - bound state [32] - **Urea**: Range trading is recommended. The supply is at a high level, the demand is supported by agriculture and compound fertilizers, and the inventory is decreasing [33][34] - **Methanol**: Range trading is recommended. The supply and demand are both in a certain state, and the inventory is decreasing [35] - **Soda Ash**: Selling short at high prices is recommended. The supply is high, the inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to be under pressure [37] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to be bullish in a range. The global cotton supply is increasing, the demand is slightly decreasing, and the domestic consumption is strong. The price is expected to be bullish due to the positive impact of chemical fiber prices [39] - **Apples**: They are expected to trade in a range. The market is in a state of polarization, and the price varies in different regions [40][41] - **Jujubes**: They are expected to trade in a range. The acquisition price in the production area is based on quality, and the trading is relatively light [42] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: Taking a bearish stance on the 05 and 07 contracts on rebounds and treating the 09 contract as range - bound is recommended. The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the long - term price is affected by capacity reduction [44][45] - **Eggs**: They are expected to trade in a range. The demand is supported by festivals, the supply pressure is gradually relieved, and the price is expected to be in a range - bound state [46] - **Corn**: It is expected to have short - term interval oscillation. The supply and demand are in a relatively balanced state, and the price is affected by factors such as supply sources and substitution [48] - **Soybean Meal**: Being cautious about chasing long on the 05 contract is recommended. The price is affected by factors such as US soybean exports, Brazilian shipping, and oil prices [49] - **Oils and Fats**: Reducing long positions gradually is recommended. The prices are expected to be in a high - level range. Although there is a short - term de - stocking expectation, the supply will be relatively loose in the second quarter [50][55]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting treasury bonds to move in a sideways pattern [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; selling out - of - the - money call options for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Holding short positions on copper at high prices moderately; strengthening observation on aluminum and nickel; range trading for tin; expecting gold, silver, and lithium carbonate to move in a sideways pattern [1] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be bullish with sideways movement; selling on rallies for soda ash; buying on dips for rubber without chasing highs; range trading for urea and methanol [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish with sideways movement; apples and jujubes are expected to move in a sideways pattern [1] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Adopting a bearish approach on rebounds for May and July live hog contracts, treating the September contract sideways; expecting eggs to move in a range - bound pattern; corn to have short - term range - bound movement; being cautious about chasing long positions on the May soybean meal contract; suggesting rolling long positions on oils and gradually reducing previous long positions [1] Core Views of the Report - The market is significantly affected by geopolitical factors such as the Middle East conflict, and the prices of various commodities show different trends under the influence of supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and policy expectations [5][14] - Different commodities have different investment strategies based on their own fundamentals, including buying on dips, selling on rallies, range trading, and strengthening observation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Trump's signal of easing tensions has repaired market liquidity and risk appetite. Stock indices are expected to be bullish with sideways movement, and investors are advised to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the capital situation and institutional allocation behavior are beneficial to the bond market, fundamental factors are subtly affecting the bond interest rate center. Treasury bonds are expected to move in a sideways pattern [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Domestic coking coal production has recovered, and the total inventory has slightly increased. Coke production has rebounded from a low level. The inventory transfer is smooth, and short - term prices are bullish, suggesting short - term trading [8] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price is below the electric - arc furnace valley electricity cost, with a low static valuation. The steel inventory has peaked and declined, and the price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement, suggesting range trading [9] - **Glass**: The supply has decreased, the inventory reduction has slowed down, the downstream demand is average, and the price of raw material soda ash is weak. The market is expected to be bearish with sideways movement, with a possibility of a small rebound. Selling call options is recommended [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Macro factors have a negative impact on copper prices, but domestic consumption is recovering, and the inventory is decreasing. However, overseas inventory is increasing. Copper prices are under pressure, but there is also support. Investors are advised to hold short positions at high prices moderately and pay attention to relevant factors [13][14] - **Aluminum**: The price of domestic bauxite is stable, and the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing. The demand is affected by high - price fluctuations, and the inventory is waiting for a turning point. The Middle East situation is generally bullish for aluminum, but it may fall in the short term. Strengthening observation is recommended [15] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore is tight, the production of refined nickel is increasing, the demand is average, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement, and investors are advised to wait and see [16][17] - **Tin**: The production of refined tin has decreased, the import of tin concentrate has increased, the consumption is recovering, and the supply is tight. Tin prices are expected to have wide - range fluctuations, suggesting range trading [18] - **Silver and Gold**: Fed's interest - rate decisions, the Middle East situation, and economic data affect prices. They are expected to move in a sideways pattern, and investors are advised to wait and see [20][21] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by mine production, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to move in a range - bound pattern [22][23] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is low, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export is good. The price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement, and investors are advised to operate within the rising channel [24] - **Caustic Soda**: The downstream demand provides support, and the supply may be affected by maintenance. The price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement, and investors are advised to be cautious about chasing high prices [26] - **Styrene**: The cost is supported by rising oil prices, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement. Buying on dips without chasing highs is recommended [27] - **Polyolefins**: The cost is supported by rising oil and gas prices. The supply and demand are improving marginally, and the price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [28] - **Rubber**: The cost is supported by high overseas raw material prices, but the inventory pressure is large. The price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement, and investors are advised to buy on dips without chasing highs [29] - **Urea**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is supported by agricultural fertilization and compound fertilizer production, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement, suggesting range trading [30][31] - **Methanol**: The supply and demand are both at a certain level, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement, suggesting range trading [32] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is expected to remain high, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Selling on rallies is recommended [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production has increased, the consumption has decreased, and the inventory has increased. However, the domestic market is active, and the price is expected to be bullish with sideways movement [36] - **Apples**: The market is polarized, with good - quality goods being actively traded. The price is expected to move in a sideways pattern [37][38] - **Jujubes**: The raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, the number of repurchasing merchants is small, and the price is expected to move in a sideways pattern [39] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Hogs**: The short - term supply exceeds demand, and the price is in the process of bottom - building. The 05 and 07 contracts are recommended to be shorted on rebounds, and the 09 contract is treated sideways [41][42] - **Eggs**: The demand is supported by festival stocking, and the supply pressure is gradually relieved. The price is expected to move in a range - bound pattern, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors [43] - **Corn**: The supply in the northeast is tight, and the supply in the north - central is loose. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to have short - term range - bound movement [45] - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by the US - Iran relationship, the price of US soybeans is under pressure. The 05 contract is recommended to be cautious about chasing long positions [46][47] - **Oils**: The price of palm oil is affected by supply and demand in Malaysia and Indonesia; the price of soybean oil is affected by Sino - US negotiations and US biodiesel policies; the price of rapeseed oil is affected by import costs and supply. Oils are expected to be at a high - level sideways movement, and previous long positions are recommended to be gradually reduced [48][52]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives specific trading suggestions for various futures products [1]. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends and provides trading strategies for different futures sectors including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - spinning industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Medium - to long - term optimistic, recommend buying on dips. Trump's signal of easing tensions and the repair of market liquidity and risk appetite may lead to a moderately strong and volatile operation of the stock index [1][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to move in a volatile manner. Although the capital situation and institutional allocation behavior are favorable for the bond market, fundamental factors are subtly affecting the bond interest rate center. Short - term market rhythm depends on bond allocation power, and medium - term attention should be paid to inflation and economic recovery expectations [1][6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Short - term trading is recommended. Domestic coking coal production has recovered, and the inventory transfer of coking coal and coke is smooth. The market is trading the substitution effect of coal for oil and gas, so short - term prices are expected to be strong [1][8]. - **Rebar**: Interval trading is suggested. Rebar futures prices are below the electric furnace valley electricity cost, and the fundamentals show that the steel inventory has peaked and declined, with production and demand recovering. It is expected to operate in a moderately strong and volatile manner in the short term [1][9]. - **Glass**: Selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended. The glass futures declined last week, with downstream replenishment ending and production and sales falling. The supply side has some cold - repairs, and the inventory is decreasing but at a slower pace. The raw material soda ash is under pressure, and the disk is expected to operate in a moderately weak and volatile manner with a small rebound possibility [1][10][11]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Moderately short on rallies. Macro factors have an increasing negative impact on copper prices, but domestic consumption is better than expected and inventory is decreasing. Overseas inventory is accumulating, and the supply side has some support in the second quarter. Pay close attention to the war situation, global economic recession expectations, and inventory reduction progress [1][13][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. The price of domestic bauxite is stable, and the export restriction policy of Guinea's bauxite is expected to be mild. The operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum has changed. The Middle East situation is generally positive for aluminum, but it may fall in the short term. Wait for the market sentiment to stabilize before entering the market [1][16]. - **Nickel**: Observe. The price of nickel ore is strong, but the demand for refined nickel is average with inventory accumulation. The price of nickel iron is expected to be strong, and the price of stainless steel is in a game between cost support and weak demand. The price of nickel sulfate is expected to be strong. Overall, nickel prices are expected to be moderately strong and volatile [1][18]. - **Tin**: Interval trading is recommended. The production of refined tin has decreased, and the import of tin concentrate has increased. The semiconductor industry is recovering, and the inventory is at a medium level. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the price is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [1][19][20]. - **Gold and Silver**: Both are expected to move in a volatile manner. The Fed's interest - rate decisions, the Middle East situation, and inflation expectations affect their prices. Although there are short - term price corrections, the medium - term price centers are expected to move up. It is recommended to observe and trade cautiously [1][21][22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Expected to fluctuate within a range. The supply is affected by mine production and imports, and the demand is strong. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [1][23]. Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Moderately strong and volatile. The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, but the export is expected to maintain a high growth rate. Pay attention to policies and risk events related to export tax rebates, supply, and cost [1][24][25]. - **Caustic Soda**: Moderately strong and volatile. The demand from Guangxi's alumina production provides support, and exports are expected to increase under the influence of the geopolitical situation. There are maintenance expectations in March, and the price is expected to rebound strongly at a low valuation. Be cautious about chasing the rise [1][26]. - **Styrene**: Moderately strong and volatile. The cost is supported by rising oil prices. The domestic inventory after the Spring Festival is low, and exports are expected to be significant in March, with inventory pressure easing. It is recommended to buy on dips but not chase the high [1][27][28]. - **Polyolefins**: Moderately strong and volatile. The cost is supported by rising oil and gas prices, and there are expectations of production cuts in petrochemical plants. The demand is supported by the increase in downstream开工率 after the festival. Pay attention to downstream demand, inventory, the Iranian situation, and oil price fluctuations [1][29]. - **Rubber**: Moderately strong and volatile. There is a game between the support of synthetic rubber and high inventory pressure. The overseas raw material price is strong, and the downstream demand is stable. It is not recommended to chase the high, and wait for adjustment opportunities [1][30]. - **Urea**: Moderately strong and volatile, with interval trading recommended. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand from agricultural fertilizer preparation and compound fertilizer production is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. Pay attention to compound fertilizer开工, urea plant maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [1][31]. - **Methanol**: Moderately strong and volatile, with interval trading recommended. The supply - side capacity utilization rate is high, and the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing slightly. The traditional downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is decreasing [1][32][33]. - **Soda Ash**: Short on rallies. The supply is expected to remain high with the increase in Far Eastern's second - phase load, and the inventory pressure is increasing. The price is at a low level, and it is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [1][34]. Cotton - Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Moderately strong and volatile. The global cotton production is increasing, and consumption is slightly decreasing, resulting in an increase in inventory. The domestic spot market is active, and the chemical fiber market has a positive impact on cotton. The price is expected to be moderately strong and volatile [1][36]. - **Apples**: Expected to move in a volatile manner. The apple market is polarized, with good - quality goods in high demand. The prices in different regions vary, and the sales area's arrival volume and sales are average [1][37]. - **Red Dates**: Expected to move in a volatile manner. The acquisition price of Xinjiang gray dates in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the post - holiday repurchase by merchants is sporadic, while the inventory holders are more willing to sell [1][38]. Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: For contracts 05 and 07, adopt a short - on - rebound strategy; for contract 09, treat it in a volatile manner. The current supply is excessive, and the demand is in the off - season, so the price is in a bottom - building stage. In the medium - to long - term, the supply is expected to tighten in the second half of the year, but the price increase depends on the capacity reduction [1][40][41]. - **Eggs**: Expected to fluctuate within a range. The national egg price is stable with a slight increase, and the demand is supported by the approaching Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The supply pressure is gradually relieved, and the price is close to the cost line. In the medium - to long - term, the inventory is expected to improve, but the capacity clearance takes time [1][42][43]. - **Corn**: Short - term interval trading is recommended. The domestic corn spot price fluctuates slightly, with a differentiation between the production and sales areas. The supply in the Northeast is tight, while that in North China is relatively loose. The demand from feed and deep - processing enterprises is stable, and the wheat substitution expectation is rising. The overall supply - demand pattern is relatively loose but with strong bottom support [1][44]. - **Soybean Meal**: Be cautious about chasing the long on the 05 contract under capital disturbance. The price of US soybeans is affected by factors such as Trump's visit delay, oil price, and Brazilian shipping progress. The domestic supply in March - April is expected to be tight, but the hedging profit of 05 and 07 contracts may suppress their performance [1][45][46]. - **Oils and Fats**: Recommended to roll long on oils and fats and gradually reduce the previous long positions. The prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are rising. Palm oil has a strong inventory - reduction expectation in March, soybean oil is affected by Sino - US negotiations and US biodiesel policies, and rapeseed oil is affected by the Middle East situation and import policies. The overall price is expected to be high and volatile, with palm oil relatively weak [1][47][48][49][50][51][52].

Report Overview - The report is the Weekly Report on Meal and Oil by Yangtze River Futures, dated March 23, 2026, focusing on the meal and oil industries [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views Soybean Meal - Due to lower - than - expected Brazilian shipments, tightened domestic supply - demand, and cost increases from rising crude oil prices, the bottom of soybean meal prices has been lifted. However, recent acceleration in shipments has put pressure on the upside. Attention should be paid to Brazilian shipments and auctions [6] Oils - In the short term, the ongoing Middle - East war and the risk of further escalation continue to support international crude oil and vegetable oil prices. But the risk of global economic recession and the expected increase in supply in the second quarter limit the upside of oil prices. Oils are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with soybean and rapeseed oils likely to perform better than palm oil. It is recommended to roll long on oils and gradually reduce previous long positions [75] Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal 1.1 Price Performance - As of March 19, the spot price in East China was 3,290 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2605 contract closed at 3,029 yuan/ton, down 99 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 05 + 270 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week. Spot prices are strong in March - April due to de - stocking expectations, while the 05 contract price is under pressure in May due to improved supply - demand [6][8] 1.2 Supply - The March USDA report maintained US and Brazilian soybean production and slightly lowered Argentine production, with the global soybean harvest remaining abundant. Brazilian soybean harvest progress has accelerated, but domestic logistics issues have increased freight costs. The expected arrival of soybeans in China in March - April has been further reduced, and soybeans and soybean meal are in a de - stocking cycle, with supply - demand tightening. Recent shipment progress has accelerated [6] 1.3 Demand - China's pig inventory remains high, but recent losses in pig farming may lead to a decline in pig inventory in the second half of the year if losses continue. Poultry inventory is high, supporting soybean meal demand. However, due to the rise in corn prices, wheat substitution has increased, and the proportion of soybean meal added has decreased. Overall, soybean meal demand remains high, but recent price increases have weakened downstream purchasing sentiment. As of March 13, national soybean inventory was 5.4861 million tons, down 240,600 tons month - on - month and up 2.31 million tons year - on - year; soybean meal inventory was 627,300 tons, down 133,200 tons month - on - month and down 55,700 tons year - on - year [6] 1.4 Cost - Based on the current US soybean price of 1,150 cents, a premium of 150 cents, and an oil - meal ratio of 2.9, the theoretical price of soybean meal is 2,980 yuan/ton. The announced planting cost of US soybeans in the 2026/27 season is 1,218 cents per bushel, and it may rise further if crude oil prices continue to increase. Import crushing margins have improved, with the margin for Brazilian soybeans at around 100 yuan/ton, which is at a relatively good level compared to historical periods [6] 2. Oils 2.1 Price Performance - As of the week ending March 20, the palm oil 05 contract fell 50 yuan/ton to 9,718 yuan/ton; the 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou fell 90 yuan/ton to 9,750 yuan/ton; the palm oil 05 basis fell 40 yuan/ton to 32 yuan/ton. The soybean oil 05 contract fell 62 yuan/ton to 8,628 yuan/ton; the fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang fell 120 yuan/ton to 8,810 yuan/ton; the soybean oil 05 basis fell 58 yuan/ton to 182 yuan/ton. The rapeseed oil 05 contract rose 55 yuan/ton to 9,876 yuan/ton; the third - grade rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang fell 40 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil 05 basis fell 95 yuan/ton to 374 yuan/ton [75][77] 2.2 Palm Oil - The February MPOB report's downward adjustment of ending inventory was less than expected, with a neutral - to - bearish impact. However, Malaysian palm oil production continued to decline in March (SPPOMA reported a 5.28% decline in output from January 1 to 15), and exports improved significantly (a 38.06 - 45.59% increase in exports from March 1 to 20). In Indonesia, if oil transportation is blocked, domestic biodiesel consumption may increase, which is positive for domestic palm oil consumption. In China, palm oil arrivals increased significantly in February, and inventory has been accumulating due to weak demand. As of March 13, domestic palm oil inventory rose to 842,000 tons. However, the expected arrivals in March - April are low, and attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation [75] 2.3 Soybean Oil - The March USDA report had a neutral impact. Market attention is on the Middle - East situation, US soybean demand, and South American soybean production. Although Trump's planned visit to China in late March was postponed, it has been rescheduled to mid - May, alleviating concerns about China not fulfilling its US soybean purchase agreement. The White House plans to hold a biodiesel event on March 27, and the market is highly concerned about the possible release of a biodiesel blending policy. In the first quarter, the arrival of soybeans in China decreased seasonally, and tightened quarantine policies have made it difficult for Brazilian soybeans to clear customs, which is beneficial for reducing soybean oil inventory. As of March 13, soybean oil inventory decreased slightly to 890,900 tons. However, Brazil will send a delegation to China to discuss soybean quarantine issues, and the number of Brazilian soybean shipments to China has begun to increase. It is expected that a record - high volume of South American soybeans will enter China in April - May, limiting the further reduction of soybean oil inventory [75] 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The Middle - East war has pushed up international crude oil prices and freight rates, increasing the cost of imported rapeseed. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has hindered the transportation of Dubai rapeseed oil to China, and the clearance time for Russian crude rapeseed oil has been extended, exacerbating the tight supply of domestic rapeseed oil. However, China's comprehensive import tax on Canadian rapeseed has been reduced to 15%, and there are reports that China has started to increase Canadian rapeseed purchases. The previously purchased 10 shipments of Canadian rapeseed will arrive in China between March and May, and it is expected that the tight supply of rapeseed oil will ease after March. As of March 13, the coastal rapeseed inventory was 151,000 tons, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 281,500 tons, showing a slight increase [75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The development of the Middle East situation is still bullish for aluminum. In the short term, the price may continue to decline. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to stabilize before entering the market to place long orders and pay attention to the development of the situation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly View - The price of domestic bauxite is temporarily stable, while the mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore increased by $0.6 per dry ton week - on - week to $63.6 per dry ton. The export restriction measures of Guinea's bauxite are expected to be mild and will be officially introduced from the end of March to early April. The operating capacity of alumina decreased by 200,000 tons week - on - week to 93.7 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 24,000 tons week - on - week to 5.369 million tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 30,000 tons week - on - week to 44.756 million tons. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will gradually affect the electrolytic aluminum production in the region, and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices has raised concerns about aluminum plant production cuts. The domestic downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increased by 1% week - on - week to 62.9%. The aluminum ingot social inventory is still waiting for an inflection point. The operating rate of recycled cast aluminum alloy enterprises has increased seasonally. The Fed's hawkish signals have put pressure on non - ferrous metals [3]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve, the US dollar index, the US Treasury 10 - year yield, the US Treasury real 10 - year yield, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar [5]. 3.3. Bauxite - The price of domestic bauxite is temporarily stable, but it is difficult to maintain in the long term due to the large difference in the real - time theoretical cost between domestic and imported ores used by alumina plants. Mines in Shanxi, Henan and other places are gradually resuming production, but fundamental problems such as mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental supervision are difficult to solve in the short term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore increased by $0.6 per dry ton week - on - week to $63.6 per dry ton, driven by the sharp rise in freight and the expected export restrictions [8]. 3.4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with no change week - on - week, the operating capacity was 93.9 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons week - on - week, and the operating rate was 81.9%. The domestic spot weighted price was 2,772.3 yuan/ton, an increase of 71.9 yuan/ton week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 5.345 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons week - on - week. The operation of alumina enterprises is relatively stable, and the industry profit has been repaired. An alumina plant in Hebei is affected by policies, and a new project in Guangxi is about to start production [11]. 3.5. Important High - Frequency Data of Alumina - The report presents data on the basis, alumina port inventory, north - south price difference, and transportation volume of alumina [13][14][15][16]. 3.6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.442 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons week - on - week; the operating capacity was 44.756 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons week - on - week. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will affect the production of electrolytic aluminum in the region, and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices has raised concerns about production cuts. There are new investment and restart projects at home and abroad, and some overseas aluminum plants have production adjustment plans [20]. 3.7. Important High - Frequency Data of Electrolytic Aluminum - The report presents data on the processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, the forward curve of Shanghai aluminum, the price of thermal coal, and the import profit of aluminum [22]. 3.8. Inventory - The report presents data on the social inventory of aluminum rods, the social inventory of aluminum ingots, the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures, and the LME aluminum inventory [24][25][26][27]. 3.9. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy leading enterprises increased by 0.7% week - on - week to 59.5%. The operating rate of recycled aluminum enterprises has increased, but the increase is still mild. Downstream die - casting enterprises have low purchasing enthusiasm [30]. 3.10. Important High - Frequency Data of Cast Aluminum Alloy - The report presents data on the price of profile aluminum, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots [32][33][34][35]. 3.11. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 1% week - on - week to 62.9%. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises increased by 3.2% week - on - week to 55%, with different performances in industrial and construction profiles. The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises remained stable at 70% week - on - week, with different trends in different orders [38][42]. 3.12. Downstream Operating Rate - The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises remained stable at 65% week - on - week, with good order expectations in April but cautious purchasing due to high aluminum prices. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises increased by 1.2% week - on - week to 54.2%, with increased orders but some suppression of purchasing due to high aluminum prices [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai copper prices dropped significantly. As of March 20, it closed at 94,740 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 5.68%. The ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran increased global inflation expectations. The Fed suspended interest rate cuts, and Powell's remarks strengthened the US dollar index, suppressing copper prices. Fundamentally, the shortage at the mine end persisted, and the spot processing fee for copper concentrates remained at a historical low. In March, production might hit a record high. With the decline in copper prices, downstream orders and production increased, and domestic copper inventories started to decline but remained at a high level. Considering inflation concerns, recession risks, and high inventories, copper prices fell from their highs [5]. - On the supply side, the shortage of copper concentrates continued. As of March 20, domestic copper concentrate port inventories were 315,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 22.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.34%. The spot TC of copper concentrates hit a new historical low. The supply of scrap copper and anode plates was relatively abundant, and the domestic copper processing fee reached a multi - year high. The electrolytic copper output in February was 1.1424 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% and a year - on - year increase of 7.96%. It is expected that the output in March will further increase [8][27]. - On the demand side, the decline in copper prices led to an increase in the operating rate of refined copper rods, and the copper foil industry maintained a high operating rate. Last week (March 13 - 19), the operating rate of domestic main refined copper rod enterprises was 81.51%, a week - on - week increase of 8.6 percentage points. The downstream procurement sentiment improved, and new orders for refined copper rod enterprises increased significantly. The downstream cable and enameled wire industries also benefited from the decline in copper prices, and their operating rates steadily recovered. In February, the operating rates of copper foil, copper strip, and copper rod were 88.56%, 41.98%, and 22.78% respectively [8][31]. - In terms of inventory, domestic copper inventories started to decline, while LME inventories continued to accumulate. As of March 20, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 41.11 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.15%. As of March 19, the SMM copper inventory in the country's mainstream areas was 523,100 tons, a decrease of 8.85% compared to March 12, but still 176,700 tons higher than the same period last year. As of March 20, LME copper inventories were 342,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.79%, and COMEX copper inventories were 588,700 short tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50% [8][33]. - Strategy suggestion: The ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran increases global inflation expectations, and the Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts strengthens the US dollar index, suppressing copper prices. Fundamentally, the tight supply pattern continues, and refined copper supply maintains year - on - year growth. As the second quarter approaches, the domestic maintenance peak is coming, and supply is still supported. Downstream demand continues to recover, and the decline in copper prices stimulates downstream procurement, accelerating inventory reduction. With the approaching of the traditional consumption season, domestic inventories are likely to continue to decline. Overseas inventories continue to accumulate. The decline in domestic social inventories and the arrival of the copper consumption peak season will support copper prices, and the overall adjustment space may be limited [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategies - **Last week's market review**: Shanghai copper prices dropped significantly. The ongoing war increased inflation expectations, the Fed's stance strengthened the US dollar index, and the shortage at the mine end persisted. In March, production might hit a record high. With the decline in copper prices, downstream orders and production increased, and domestic copper inventories started to decline but remained at a high level [5]. - **Supply - demand and inventory analysis**: On the supply side, the shortage of copper concentrates continued, and the spot TC hit a new low. The supply of scrap copper and anode plates was abundant, and the domestic copper processing fee was high. The electrolytic copper output in February was seasonally low, and it is expected to increase in March. On the demand side, the decline in copper prices led to an increase in the operating rate of refined copper rods and the copper foil industry maintained a high operating rate. In terms of inventory, domestic copper inventories started to decline, while LME inventories continued to accumulate [8]. - **Strategy suggestion**: The war and the Fed's policy suppress copper prices, but the tight supply and recovering demand support copper prices. The decline in domestic social inventories and the arrival of the consumption peak season will limit the downward adjustment space of copper prices [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market and Positioning - **Premium and discount**: The contango structure appeared in the inter - month spread, and the spot discount of Shanghai copper continued to be under pressure. The decline in copper prices stimulated downstream procurement, and the spot premium first rose and then fell, and then stabilized. The LME copper inventory increased significantly, the LME 0 - 3 discount continued to widen, and the New York - London copper price difference was still negative [16]. - **Domestic and foreign positions**: As of March 20, the trading volume of Shanghai copper futures increased significantly, but the open interest decreased. As of March 13, the net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions increased significantly week - on - week. As of March 17, the net long positions of COMEX copper asset management institutions decreased slightly week - on - week [18]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Supply side**: The shortage of copper concentrates continued, and the spot TC hit a new low. The supply of scrap copper and anode plates was abundant, and the domestic copper processing fee was high. The electrolytic copper output in February was seasonally low, and it is expected to increase in March [27]. - **Downstream operating rate**: In February, the operating rates of copper foil, copper strip, and copper rod were 88.56%, 41.98%, and 22.78% respectively. The copper foil industry's operating rate was much higher than in previous years. Last week, the operating rate of domestic main refined copper rod enterprises increased significantly, and the downstream cable and enameled wire industries also benefited from the decline in copper prices [31]. - **Inventory**: Domestic copper inventories started to decline, while LME inventories continued to accumulate. The decline in copper prices stimulated downstream procurement, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange and social inventories decreased, but the LME inventory increased [33].