1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pig market is currently in a state of supply exceeding demand, with short - term prices continuing to oscillate at the bottom. In the medium - to - long term, prices are expected to rise as supply tightens in the second half of the year, but the price increase depends on the extent of capacity reduction [4][48]. - The egg market is under pressure from high inventory. Although demand is gradually recovering, the overall recovery is slow, and the price increase is limited in the short term. In the long term, the supply pressure is difficult to relieve quickly, and the market should not be overly optimistic [5][76]. - The corn market has a tight supply situation that has been slightly alleviated but not fundamentally changed. In the short term, prices will remain high and volatile, while in the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand pattern will gradually become looser, and there is a risk of a phased correction [6][108]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pig 3.1.1 Period - Spot End - As of March 20, the national spot price was 9.87 yuan/kg, down 0.16 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 10 yuan/kg, down 0.18 yuan/kg from last week. The main pig futures contract 2605 closed at 10,220 yuan/ton, down 930 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of the 05 contract was - 220 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan/ton from last week [4][48]. 3.1.2 Supply End - In December 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, still 3.11 million away from the normal inventory regulation target of 36.5 million announced in early March. With the intensification of fattening losses and the decline of piglet profits, and the relevant department's requirement to further reduce the annual output, the industry capacity reduction will accelerate. According to piglet and feed data, the supply pressure in the first half of 2026 is still high, but the supply will decrease marginally after July [4][48]. 3.1.3 Demand End - The weekly slaughter start - up rate and slaughter volume continued to rise. However, the terminal fresh - sales demand was weak, the fresh - sales rate of slaughterhouses decreased, and the frozen - product storage ratio increased. Consumption is in the off - season, lacking obvious positive support [4][48]. 3.1.4 Cost End - The weekly prices of piglets and binary breeding sows decreased, and the losses of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets for breeding expanded. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs for 5 months remained the same as last week. The pig - grain ratio dropped to 4.08, and policy regulation is expected to stabilize prices [4][48]. 3.1.5 Weekly Summary - In March, the supply increased, the pig weight was high, and the industry capacity reduction accelerated, which increased the short - term supply. Consumption was in the off - season, and the price was under pressure. In the medium - to - long term, the price rebound was under pressure in the first half of the year, and prices were expected to rise in the second half of the year, but the price increase depends on the capacity reduction [4][48]. 3.1.6 Strategy Suggestion - In the short term, the spot price is at the bottom, and the futures price has a premium. It is advisable to try short - selling on rebounds in the near - term contracts and conduct rolling operations. For the far - term contracts, be cautious about bottom - fishing. Before the capacity is effectively reduced, breeding enterprises can conduct rolling hedging on rallies and try the reverse spread operation of buying far - term and selling near - term contracts [4][48]. 3.2 Egg 3.2.1 Period - Spot End - As of March 20, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.27 yuan/jin, up 0.17 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.24 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from last Friday. The main egg futures contract 2605 closed at 3,409 yuan/500 kg, down 24 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 339 yuan/500 kg, up 254 yuan/500 kg from last Friday [5][76]. 3.2.2 Supply End - The inventory of laying hens continued to be at a high level in the same period of history. Although the supply pressure was slightly relieved in the short term, in the long term, the supply pressure was difficult to relieve quickly due to the slow capacity reduction [5][76]. 3.2.3 Demand End - Egg demand continued to recover slightly, but the terminal family consumption was still weak, and the low - price pork still had a substitution effect, suppressing the price increase space [5][76]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary - High inventory and slow - recovering demand limit the price increase in the short term. In the long term, the supply pressure is difficult to relieve quickly, and the market should not be overly optimistic [5][76]. 3.2.5 Strategy Suggestion - In the short term, be cautious about the risk of price decline due to weak demand recovery. Do not chase high prices, and take a short - selling approach on rebounds in the near - term contracts. In the long term, closely monitor the capacity reduction rhythm and wait for a clear inflection point to make a layout [5][76]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Period - Spot End - As of March 20, the corn closing price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,395 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from last Friday. The main corn futures contract 2605 closed at 2,387 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 8 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from last Friday [6][108]. 3.3.2 Supply End - The tight supply situation has been slightly alleviated but not fundamentally changed. The farmers' grain - selling progress in the Northeast and North China has increased, but it is still slower than the same period last year. The effective supply is still tight, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has started to rise [6][108]. 3.3.3 Demand End - The deep - processing enterprises' replenishment demand has increased, while the feed enterprises' procurement is still cautious, mainly using substitutes and adopting a wait - and - see attitude [6][108]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary - The corn market is still active in trading. In the short term, prices will remain high and volatile, but in the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand pattern will gradually become looser, and there is a risk of a phased correction [6][108]. 3.3.5 Strategy Suggestion - In the short term, participate lightly with support and grasp the band opportunities. In the medium - to - long term, gradually reduce positions and take profits on rallies, and be vigilant against the phased correction risk [6][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the black sector fluctuated within a narrow range, with small price changes in both raw materials and finished products. The steel demand continued to recover, and the steel inventory reached its peak and started to decline last week. The coking coal production rebounded to a normal to high level since last year, and the market began to trade the substitution effect of coal due to the impact on crude oil and liquefied gas supply. Overall, the black sector is expected to fluctuate with an upward bias [4][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison: Narrow - range Fluctuation - The black sector showed a narrow - range fluctuation last week. The price trends of different black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented in the graph [6][7] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison: Non - ferrous Metals Decline, Energy and Chemicals Continue to Strengthen - In the futures market, the non - ferrous metals sector had a significant decline, while the energy and chemicals sector continued to strengthen. The five - day percentage changes of various futures indexes are shown in the graph [9][10] 03 Spot Prices: Slight Decline in Rebar and Iron Ore, Coking Coal Begins to Strengthen - The spot prices of rebar and iron ore slightly declined, while coking coal started to strengthen. The five - day price changes and percentage changes of different commodities are presented in the graph [11][12] 04 Profit and Valuation: Improvement in Steel Mill Profits, Low Valuation of Rebar Futures - The profitability of steel mills has improved. The rebar futures price is below the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces, indicating a relatively low static valuation. Graphs show the profitability of steel mills, different types of profits (valley - electricity, flat - electricity, peak - electricity, and long - process profits), and the comparison between futures prices and different cost levels [13][14] 05 Steel Supply and Demand: Demand Continues to Rise, Inventory Starts to Decrease - The steel demand continued to recover, and the steel inventory reached its peak and started to decline. Graphs present the total inventory, weekly production, and weekly apparent consumption of five major steel products, as well as the corresponding data for rebar [16][17] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand: Steel Mill Restart, Significant Increase in Hot Metal Production - Affected by the restart of steel mills, the hot metal production increased significantly last week. Currently, the hot metal production is still lower than the same period last year, with room for further increase. The steel mills started to replenish inventory, leading to an increase in steel mill iron ore inventory and a decline in port inventory. The graphs show the production of iron concentrate, global iron ore shipments, port and steel mill iron ore inventories, and the daily average hot metal production [25][26] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand: Increase in Raw Coal Production, Inventory Transfer to Downstream - The raw coal production of coking coal increased, and the inventory transferred to the downstream. The graphs show the daily average production of raw coal and clean coal of 523 mines, the inventory of clean coal and raw coal of 523 sample mines, the 16 - port coking coal inventory, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills and all coking plants [28][29] 08 Coke Supply and Demand: Production Rebounds from a Low Level, Inventory Increases Slightly - The coke production rebounded from a low level, and the inventory increased slightly. The graphs show the daily coke production of 247 steel mills and all coking plants, the inventory of independent coking enterprises, 18 - port coke inventory, and the inventory of 247 steel mill sample coking plants [30][31] 09 Variety Spreads: Decline in Steel Mill's Disk Profit, Expansion of Hot - rolled and Rebar Spread - The steel mill's disk profit declined, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar expanded. Graphs show the steel mill's disk profit of rebar, the ratio of coke to coking coal, the ratio of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [32][33] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - The draft report of the 2026 national economic and social development plan aims to balance supply and demand in key industries such as steel, and reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions. International events include measures to ensure the safety of the Strait of Hormuz, the release of strategic oil reserves, and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. Domestic economic data shows that the national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year from January to February, and 5.2% after excluding real estate development investment [38]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; selling out - of - the - money call options for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Holding short positions moderately on copper at high prices; strengthening observation on aluminum; suggesting waiting and seeing on nickel; range trading for tin; expecting gold and silver to trade in a range; expecting lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be bullish with oscillations; shorting soda ash at high prices; buying rubber on dips without chasing highs; range trading for urea and methanol [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish with oscillations; apples and jujubes are expected to trade in a range [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Adopting a bearish approach on rebounds for May and July live hog contracts, treating September contracts with a range - bound view; eggs are expected to trade in a range; corn is expected to trade in a short - term range; being cautious about chasing long on the May soybean meal contract; suggesting rolling long on oils and gradually reducing early long positions [1] Core Views - Geopolitical events such as the situation in the Middle East and policies of central banks and governments have significant impacts on the futures market, affecting market sentiment, supply - demand relationships, and price trends [5][6] - Different commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics, inventory situations, and cost factors, which together influence their price trends and investment strategies [8][9][13] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Bearish in the short term due to geopolitical events and reduced market risk appetite, but bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range, with short - term trends depending on bond allocation forces and medium - term trends on inflation and economic recovery expectations [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Short - term trading is recommended. The inventory transfer of coking coal and coke is smooth, and the market is trading the substitution effect of coal for oil and gas, with short - term prices being bullish [8] - **Rebar**: Range trading is recommended. The futures price is undervalued, and the short - term price is expected to be bullish. Attention should be paid to the demand situation [9] - **Glass**: Selling out - of - the - money call options is suggested. The market is expected to be bearish with oscillations and may have a small rebound [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Holding short positions moderately at high prices is recommended. The price is under pressure from macro factors but is supported by domestic inventory reduction and the upcoming consumption season. Attention should be paid to the duration and intensity of the war, global recession expectations, and inventory reduction progress [13][14] - **Aluminum**: Strengthening observation is recommended. The price may continue to decline in the short term, and long positions can be considered after the market stabilizes, paying attention to the development of the Middle East situation [15] - **Nickel**: Waiting and seeing is recommended. The price is expected to be bullish with oscillations, with strong support from the ore end but weak demand and inventory accumulation [17] - **Tin**: Range trading is recommended. The price is expected to continue wide - range oscillations, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand improvement [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Both are expected to trade in a range, and waiting and seeing is recommended [19][20] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Expected to trade in a range, with supply and demand both increasing and attention paid to export bans and supply disturbances [22] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Bullish with oscillations, with short - term trading within the ascending channel. Attention should be paid to policies, export situations, and raw material prices [23][25] - **Caustic Soda**: Bullish with oscillations. Strong rebounds are expected in the short term, and chasing highs should be cautious. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, supply - side maintenance, and downstream replenishment [26] - **Styrene**: Bullish with oscillations. Buying on dips without chasing highs is recommended. Attention should be paid to raw material prices, inventory, and downstream demand [27][28] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish with oscillations. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, inventory, the Iranian situation, and oil price fluctuations [29] - **Rubber**: Bullish with oscillations. Buying on dips without chasing highs is recommended. Attention should be paid to inventory, downstream demand, and market sentiment [30] - **Urea**: Bullish with oscillations and range trading is recommended. Attention should be paid to compound fertilizer production, device maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [32][33] - **Methanol**: Bullish with oscillations and range trading is recommended. The price may be pushed up in the short term due to supply shocks, and traditional downstream demand is weak [33][34] - **Soda Ash**: Shorting at high prices is recommended. The supply is expected to be high, and the price may continue to be under pressure in the short term [35] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish with oscillations. The global cotton supply is increasing, and domestic consumption is strong. The price is expected to be bullish with oscillations [37] - **Apples**: Expected to trade in a range, with the market showing a two - tiered trading pattern [38] - **Jujubes**: Expected to trade in a range, with raw material acquisition based on quality and high enthusiasm for sellers to ship goods [39] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Hogs**: May and July contracts should be treated with a bearish approach on rebounds, and September contracts should be treated with a range - bound view. The short - term price is expected to bottom out, and the long - term price may rise with supply reduction [42] - **Eggs**: Expected to trade in a range. Short - term range - bound oscillations are expected, and attention should be paid to the timing of selling short on the near - term contracts [43] - **Corn**: Expected to trade in a short - term range. Attention should be paid to the circulation of high - quality grain in the Northeast, replenishment in North China, and wheat substitution [44] - **Soybean Meal**: Being cautious about chasing long on the May contract. Attention should be paid to soybean arrival rhythm, auctions, and oil prices [44][45] - **Oils**: Expected to be bullish with oscillations in the short term. Rolling long positions are recommended, and early long positions should be gradually reduced [46][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The glass futures declined significantly last week. After the downstream restocking ended, production and sales gradually decreased, and the current situation suppressed prices. It is expected that the glass futures will fluctuate weakly, with a possibility of a small rebound. The report suggests selling out - of - the - money call options [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy: Sell Out - of - the - Money Call Options - **Main Logic**: The glass futures dropped last week. After downstream restocking ended, production and sales declined. The basis in the Shahe area narrowed positively, and the basis in Hubei Minghong changed from negative to positive. Spot prices were basically stable, reducing hedging opportunities. The 5 - 9 spread was - 127 yuan/ton, and there were still risks in long - short spreads. Supply decreased as the second line of Sichuan Wujun with a daily melting capacity of 900 tons was cold - repaired. Nationwide inventory continued to decline, but the decline weakened. Downstream processing plants had average new orders and mainly maintained a rigid - demand purchasing rhythm. The price of soda ash, a raw material, was weak, and the only factor disturbing the market was the increase in coal costs. Technically, the short - side force reached its peak, and there was a possibility of profit - taking [3]. - **Operation Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money call options [4] 02 Market Review: Futures Decline - **Spot Price**: As of March 20, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,070 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,090 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan) in Central China, and 1,250 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China. - **Futures Price**: Last Friday, the glass 05 contract closed at 1,054 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 81 yuan [11]. 03 Market Review: Basis Turns Positive - **Soda Ash - Glass Spread**: As of March 20, the soda ash futures price was 1,202 yuan, and the glass futures price was 1,054 yuan. The spread between them was 148 yuan/ton (+ 6 yuan). - **Basis**: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 05 contract was 6 yuan/ton (+ 61 yuan). - **Contract Spread**: Last Friday, the 05 - 09 spread was - 127 yuan/ton (- 14 yuan) [12][16]. 04 Profit: Gross Margin Declines - **Natural Gas Process**: The cost was 1,572 yuan/ton (- 2 yuan), and the gross margin was - 322 yuan/ton (+ 2 yuan). - **Coal - Gas Process**: The cost was 1,179 yuan/ton (+ 6 yuan), and the gross margin was - 109 yuan/ton (- 6 yuan). - **Petroleum Coke Process**: The cost was 1,098 yuan/ton (- 2 yuan), and the gross margin was - 8 yuan/ton (- 8 yuan). - **Fuel Prices**: On March 20, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 4.31 yuan/m³, the CIF price of US 3% sulfur shot coke was 175 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 609 yuan/ton [20]. 05 Supply: Decrease - The daily melting capacity of glass last Friday was 146,585 tons/day (- 1,200 tons). Currently, there are 207 production lines in operation. Multiple production lines have undergone cold - repair,复产, new ignition, and conversion [22][23]. 06 Inventory: Continued Inventory Reduction - As of March 20, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 7,443.6 ten - thousand weight boxes (- 141.3 ten - thousand weight boxes). Inventory in various regions also decreased, such as North China (- 72 ten - thousand weight boxes), Central China (- 12 ten - thousand weight boxes), etc. [25][28]. 07 Deep - Processing: Decrease in Order Days - **Production and Sales Rate**: On March 19, the comprehensive production and sales rate of float glass was 97% (- 23%). - **LOW - E Glass**: On March 20, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 43.8% (+ 2.2%). - **Order Available Days**: At the beginning of February, the order days of glass deep - processing were 6.35 days (- 2.95 days) [29]. 08 Demand: Decrease in Sales During the Spring Festival - **Automobile**: In February, China's automobile production was 1.672 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 778,000 vehicles and a year - on - year decrease of 431,000 vehicles. Sales were 1.805 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 541,000 vehicles and a year - on - year decrease of 324,000 vehicles. - **New - Energy Vehicles**: In February, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 464,000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 44.9% [38]. 09 Demand: Real Estate Data Continues to Decline - **Real Estate**: From January to February, China's real estate completion area was 63.2042 million m², a year - on - year decrease of 28%; new construction area was 50.839 million m² (- 23%); construction area was 5.35372 billion m² (- 12%); and commercial housing sales area was 92.93 million m² (- 14%). - **Transaction Area**: From March 9 to March 15, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.7 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 45% and a year - on - year decrease of 8%. - **Development Investment**: In December, real estate development investment was 419.724 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 37% [44]. 10 Soda Ash: Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,275 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,250 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1,225 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1,375 yuan/ton (unchanged) in South China. - **Futures Price**: Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,202 yuan/ton (- 75 yuan). - **Basis**: Last Friday, the basis of the soda ash Central China 05 contract was 23 yuan/ton (+ 75 yuan) [45][48][49]. 11 Cost - Side - Soda Ash: Improvement in Joint - Soda Profit - **Soda Ash Profit**: As of last Friday, the ammonia - soda process cost of soda ash enterprises was 1,294 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the gross margin was - 25 yuan/ton (+ 1 yuan); the joint - production process cost was 1,729 yuan/ton (+ 89 yuan), and the gross margin was 228 yuan/ton (+ 62 yuan). - **Other Prices**: Last Friday, the market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 2,653 yuan/ton (+ 317 yuan), and the ex - factory price of wet ammonium chloride of Xuzhou Fengcheng was 500 yuan/ton (+ 100 yuan) [50][51][52]. 12 Cost - Side - Soda Ash: Increase in Production - **Inventory**: As of March 20, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 185.38 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 7.79 tons). - **Soda Ash Production**: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 81.81 tons (a week - on - week increase of 0.89 tons), including 43.4 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 0.57 tons) and 38.41 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 0.32 tons). The loss was 12.88 tons (a week - on - week increase of 0.79 tons). - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: Last weekend, the number of soda ash warehouse receipts on the exchange was 0 (a week - on - week decrease of 2,263) [61][62]. 13 Cost - Side - Soda Ash: Improvement in Apparent Demand - **Apparent Consumption**: Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 46.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.13 tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 43.46 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4 tons. - **Production and Sales Rate**: Last week, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 109.63%, a week - on - week increase of 7.71%. - **Glass Factory Inventory**: In February, the soda ash inventory of sample float glass factories was 19.55 days [64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View Urea's开工负荷率 has slightly decreased, and off - season reserves are being released into the market, resulting in an abundant supply. Agricultural fertilizer preparation and use, along with the increased operation rate of compound fertilizer plants, have boosted the demand for urea. The inventory level of urea enterprises is relatively low compared to the same period last year, and inventory reduction is smooth. In the short term, the price will fluctuate within a certain range [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Changes - Urea's futures price has declined, while the spot price has remained stable. On March 20, the closing price of the urea 2605 contract was 1841 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton or 2.54% from last week. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1838 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton or 0.54% from last week [3][4]. - The main - contract basis of urea has strengthened. On March 20, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 3 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 57) - (- 3) yuan/ton [3][7]. - The 5 - 9 spread of urea has weakened. On March 20, the 5 - 9 spread was - 53 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 53) - (- 39) yuan/ton [3][8][9]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The urea operating load rate is 92.21%, a decrease of 1.02 percentage points from last week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises is 77.92%, a decrease of 5.58 percentage points from last week. The daily average urea output is 21.71 tons. Some plants in Hainan, Xinjiang, Sichuan and other regions have been under maintenance or short - term shutdown, resulting in a slight decrease in the operating load. Off - season reserves are being released into the market, and the market supply is abundant [3][11]. - **Cost**: The anthracite market is tepid, and coal prices are mainly stable. As of March 19, the tax - included price of anthracite washed small pieces with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi is 880 - 930 yuan/ton; the tax - included price of anthracite washed lumps with S1 - 1.5 in Yangquan, Shanxi is 780 - 840 yuan/ton, both of which are at the same level as the closing price of the same period last week [15]. - **Profit**: The gross profit margin of coal - based urea is 5.85%, and the gross profit margin of gas - based urea is - 2.65%. The mainstream price of the urea market is running at a high level, and the production profit of urea has recovered [15]. - **Demand**: - **Agricultural demand**: As the temperature warms up, the demand for wheat green - turning fertilizer is gradually being released. The average pre - collection of major urea production enterprises is 6.4 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises is 100.9% [16][17]. - **Industrial demand**: - The capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 49.97%, an increase of 4.41 percentage points from last week. The compound fertilizer inventory is 73.38 tons, a decrease of 1.51 percentage points from last week. The demand in the compound fertilizer market is fair, dealers are accelerating the distribution of goods, mainly to digest inventory, and fertilizer enterprises' operation has increased to a relatively high level to meet the shipping demand [21]. - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises is 62.91%, an increase of 5.91 percentage points from last week, and the weekly output is 3.395 tons. Some plants in Shanxi Fengxi Linyi, Sichuan Jinxiang Sairui D area and Shaanxi Longhua have had short - term shutdowns for maintenance, while some plants in Shanxi Fengxi, Zhongyuan Dahua, Henan Jinkong Tianqing, Hubei Huaqiang and Sichuan Jinxiang Sairui have resumed production after maintenance, and the plants of Shaanxi Longhua and Henan Junhua are in the recovery stage [24]. - The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores have decreased, and the demand support in the panel market has weakened [25]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory is 65.1 tons, a decrease of 7 tons from last week and a decrease of 44.4 tons compared to the same period last year. Urea port inventory is 23.9 tons, a decrease of 3 tons from last week. There are 8499 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 16.998 tons, an increase of 2371 receipts or 5.462 tons compared to the same period last year [3][28]. Key Points of Attention - The operation of compound fertilizer plants, the reduction and maintenance of urea plants, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [3].

Report Investment Ratings by Industry - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to sell out - of - the - money calls [1][9][10][11] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper suggests holding short positions moderately or staying on the sidelines when prices are high; aluminum advises increased observation; nickel recommends waiting and seeing; tin is for range trading; gold and silver are expected to trade sideways; lithium carbonate is in a range - bound oscillation [1][14][17][18][20][21][22][23] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be bullish with oscillations; soda ash suggests shorting at high prices; rubber recommends buying on dips without chasing highs; urea and methanol are for range trading [1][25][27][28][31][32][33][35] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish with oscillations; apples and jujubes are expected to trade sideways [1][37][39][40] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, adopt a bearish strategy on rebounds for contracts 05 and 07, and treat contract 09 sideways; eggs are in a range - bound oscillation; corn is expected to trade sideways in the short term; for soybean meal, be cautious of chasing long on contract 05 due to capital disturbances; for oils and fats, suggest rolling long positions and gradually reducing previous long positions [1][42][43][44][45][46][48] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical factors, such as the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, have a significant impact on the futures market, affecting inflation expectations, interest rate expectations, and commodity supply and demand [5][14][15][17][21][22][25][27][28][31][33][42][47][48][50][51][52] - The domestic economic situation, including factors like social financing, credit data, and industrial demand, also influences the performance of various futures varieties [6][10][25][32][34][37][42][43][44][45][47] - Supply and demand fundamentals are key factors determining the price trends of different futures. For example, factors such as production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand play important roles in the price movements of commodities [9][10][11][12][14][15][17][19][20][24][25][27][28][31][32][33][34][35][37][39][40][42][43][44][45][47][48][49][50][51] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: In the medium to long term, they are bullish. With factors such as central banks' policies and geopolitical situations, the market may trade sideways. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade sideways. Short - term trends depend on bond allocation strength, and medium - term trends are affected by inflation and economic recovery expectations [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: It has been weak and stable since the Spring Festival. With slow demand recovery in the terminal steel market, it is suitable for short - term trading [9] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade sideways. With the peak of steel inventory passing, the focus is on demand and the strength of raw materials [10] - **Glass**: It is expected to trade sideways at high levels. After downstream replenishment, there are opportunities to sell out - of - the - money calls [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is in a high - level oscillation. Geopolitical factors and supply - demand fundamentals jointly affect the price. It is recommended to hold short positions moderately or stay on the sidelines at high prices [14][15][16] - **Aluminum**: It is in a high - level oscillation. The impact of the Middle East situation is two - sided. It is advisable to strengthen observation [17] - **Nickel**: It is expected to trade sideways. Although the supply of nickel ore is tight, the weak demand and inventory accumulation limit the upward drive. It is recommended to wait and see [18][19] - **Tin**: It is expected to trade sideways. With tight supply and stable demand, it is suitable for range trading [20] - **Silver and Gold**: They are expected to trade sideways. Geopolitical factors and economic data affect inflation and interest rate expectations, and the medium - term price centers are rising [21][22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. With both supply and demand increasing, attention should be paid to supply disruptions [23][24] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to be bullish with oscillations. Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, there are opportunities in the short term due to factors such as export tax rebates [25][26] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to be bullish with oscillations. With support from demand and potential supply disruptions, it may have a strong rebound, but be cautious of chasing highs [27] - **Styrene**: It is expected to be bullish with oscillations. Supported by cost and export, it is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [28][29] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to be bullish with oscillations. Supported by cost and improving supply - demand, attention should be paid to relevant factors such as demand and oil prices [30] - **Rubber**: It is expected to be bullish with oscillations. Affected by cost and demand, it is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [31] - **Urea**: It is expected to be bullish with oscillations. With sufficient supply and increasing demand, it may trade strongly within a range [32] - **Methanol**: It is expected to be bullish with oscillations. Affected by supply disruptions and demand, it is suitable for range trading [33][34] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short at high prices. With high supply and inventory pressure, the price may continue to be under pressure [35] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to be bullish with oscillations. Affected by global supply - demand and domestic consumption, the price may rise [37][38] - **Apples and Jujubes**: They are expected to trade sideways. The apple market has a polarized trading situation, and the jujube market has slow post - holiday sales [39][40] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the price is in a bottom - grinding phase, and in the long term, it may rebound. For contracts 05 and 07, adopt a bearish strategy on rebounds; for contract 09, treat it sideways [42] - **Eggs**: They are in a range - bound oscillation. With improving demand and slightly easing supply pressure, the short - term price may be strong within a range [43][44] - **Corn**: It is expected to trade sideways in the short term. Affected by supply and demand factors, it is recommended to be cautious of hedging on rebounds [45] - **Soybean Meal**: It is in a low - level oscillation. Affected by factors such as international trade and supply - demand, be cautious of chasing long on contract 05 [46][47] - **Oils and Fats**: They are in a high - level oscillation. Different varieties have different performance. It is recommended to roll long positions and gradually reduce previous long positions [48][52]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expect government bonds to move in a range [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, selling out - of - the - money call options for glass [1][9][10][11] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Hold short positions moderately or stay on the sidelines for copper at high prices; strengthen observation for aluminum; stay on the sidelines for nickel; range trading for tin; expect gold, silver, and lithium carbonate to move in a range [1][14][17][18][20][21][22][23] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be strongly volatile; short at high prices for soda ash; buy on dips for rubber without chasing highs; range trading for urea and methanol [1][25][27][28][30][31][32][33] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strongly volatile; apples and jujubes are expected to move in a range [1][37][39][40] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Adopt a bearish strategy on rebounds for May and July live hog contracts, treat September contracts with a range - bound view; eggs are expected to move in a range; corn is expected to move in a short - term range; be cautious about chasing long positions in the May soybean meal contract; suggest rolling long on oils and gradually reducing previous long positions [1][42][43][45][46][48] Core Views - The ongoing Middle East conflict, especially the war between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets. It has led to fluctuations in oil prices, inflation expectations, and interest - rate expectations, affecting the prices of various assets [5][14][15][21][22] - Different industries and commodities have their own supply - demand fundamentals. For example, in the non - ferrous metals industry, the supply and demand of copper, aluminum, and other metals are affected by factors such as mine supply, production capacity changes, and downstream demand [14][15][17] - In the agricultural and animal husbandry sectors, factors such as production capacity, consumption seasons, and policies have a significant impact on prices. For example, the supply and demand of live hogs and eggs are affected by production capacity changes and consumption seasons [42][43] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Pressured in the short term due to the Middle East conflict and the Fed's hawkish stance, but bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a range due to factors such as changes in social financing, loan data, and geopolitical situations [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable. Short - term trading is recommended as downstream demand recovers slowly [9] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. The price is below the electric - furnace off - peak electricity cost, and the inventory is expected to peak and decline [10] - **Glass**: The downstream replenishment is basically completed, and the market is expected to be in high - level range - bound operation. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price is in a high - level range and is under pressure. Pay close attention to the duration and intensity of the war, global economic recession expectations, and inventory drawdown progress. Suggest holding short positions moderately or staying on the sidelines at high prices [14][15] - **Aluminum**: The price is in a high - level range. Strengthen observation as the Middle East situation has a two - sided impact on the price, and the supply crisis is still fermenting [17] - **Nickel**: The price is expected to move in a range. Suggest staying on the sidelines as the supply and demand are complex, and the price lacks a clear upward driver [18][19] - **Tin**: The price is expected to continue to be strongly volatile in a wide range. Range trading is recommended, and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [20] - **Silver and Gold**: The prices are expected to continue to be in range - bound adjustment. Suggest staying on the sidelines and trading cautiously, and pay attention to the progress of the Iranian situation and the Fed's March interest - rate decision [21][22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is expected to continue to move in a range as the supply and demand are both increasing, and pay attention to export bans and mining - end disturbances [24] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand situation is still weak in reality, but there are short - term opportunities due to factors such as low valuation and export tax rebates. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [25][26] - **Caustic Soda**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term. The demand from alumina production provides marginal support, and exports are expected to increase [27] - **Styrene**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile. The cost is supported by rising oil prices, and the inventory pressure is relieved [28][29] - **Polyolefins**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile due to cost support and marginal improvement in supply and demand [30] - **Rubber**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile. There is a game between synthetic rubber support and inventory pressure. Do not chase highs, and wait for adjustment opportunities [31] - **Urea**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile in a range. The supply is still at a relatively high level, and the demand from agricultural fertilization and compound fertilizers is increasing [32] - **Methanol**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile in a range. The war in Iran may cause a supply gap, and the demand from the olefin industry is relatively stable [33][34] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is expected to remain at a high level, and the inventory pressure is increasing. Suggest shorting at high prices [35] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The price is expected to be strongly volatile. The global cotton supply is increasing, and the domestic consumption is strong. The rise in chemical fiber prices has a positive impact [37][38] - **Apples**: The market is generally stable, with a two - tiered trading situation. The prices in different regions vary [39] - **Jujubes**: The price is expected to move in a range. The raw - material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, and the trading is relatively light [40] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Hogs**: The price is in the process of bottom - building. Adopt a bearish strategy on rebounds for May and July contracts, and treat September contracts with a range - bound view. Pay attention to policy support and production - capacity reduction [42] - **Eggs**: The price is expected to move in a range. The supply pressure is gradually relieved, and the demand is picking up. The futures price is at a premium [43][44] - **Corn**: The price is expected to move in a short - term range. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and pay attention to factors such as grain circulation and wheat substitution [45] - **Soybean Meal**: The price is in a low - level range. Be cautious about chasing long positions in the May contract. Pay attention to factors such as soybean arrivals and oil prices [46][47] - **Oils**: The price is in a high - level range. Suggest rolling long on oils and gradually reducing previous long positions. Different oil varieties have different performance due to supply - demand differences [48][49][50][51]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term and recommend buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [1] - Black building materials: Coking coal recommends short-term trading; rebar suggests range trading; glass advises selling out-of-the-money call options [1] - Non-ferrous metals: Copper recommends moderately shorting at high prices or staying on the sidelines; aluminum suggests strengthening observation; nickel advises staying on the sidelines; tin recommends range trading; gold and silver are expected to move in a range; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be moderately bullish; soda ash recommends shorting at high prices; rubber recommends buying on dips without chasing highs; urea and methanol recommend range trading [1] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be moderately bullish; apples and jujubes are expected to move in a range [1] - Agricultural and livestock: For live pigs, adopt a bearish approach on rebounds for contracts 05 and 07, and treat contract 09 with a range-bound view; eggs are expected to trade in a range; corn is expected to trade in a short-term range; for soybean meal, be cautious about chasing long positions in contract 05 due to capital disturbances; for oils and fats, recommend rolling long positions and gradually reducing previous long positions [1] Core Views - The global geopolitical situation, especially the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, has a significant impact on the futures market, affecting factors such as inflation expectations, interest rate expectations, and supply and demand of various commodities [5][6][14][20][21] - Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply and demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [8][9][11][16][17] Summary by Directory Macro-finance - Index futures: In the medium to long term, they are bullish. Due to factors such as the significant downward revision of the US Q4 GDP growth rate, the decline in consumer confidence, and geopolitical events, the index futures may move in a range in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [1][5] - Treasury bonds: They are expected to move in a range. Influenced by factors such as China's new social financing and credit data, Sino-US economic and trade consultations, and geopolitical situations, the bond market sentiment is cautious, and the overall bond market shows a differentiated trend [1][6] Black building materials - Coking coal: It is expected to move in a range, and short-term trading is recommended. After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is generally weak and stable. The resumption of production in coal mines and the slow recovery of terminal steel demand have led to a weak trading atmosphere [1][8] - Rebar: It is expected to move in a range. The rebar futures price is currently below the electric furnace valley electricity cost, with a low static valuation. The inventory is expected to peak and decline, and the price is expected to be moderately bullish in the short term [1][9] - Glass: It is expected to move in a range, and selling out-of-the-money call options is recommended. The downstream replenishment is basically completed, the supply and demand situation is complex, and the price is expected to be in a high-level range [1][10][11] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: It is in a high-level range and is under pressure. It is recommended to moderately short at high prices or stay on the sidelines. Pay close attention to the duration and intensity of the war, the global economic recession expectations, and the inventory depletion progress [1][13][14] - Aluminum: It is in a high-level range. It is recommended to strengthen observation. The supply and demand situation is affected by factors such as the price of bauxite, the production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, and the geopolitical situation. The overall situation is complex, and it is recommended to be long with position control [1][16] - Nickel: It is expected to move in a range, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. The supply and demand of nickel ore are tight, the supply of refined nickel is increasing, and the demand is general. The price is expected to be moderately bullish, but there is a lack of obvious upward drivers [1][17] - Tin: It is expected to move in a range, and range trading is recommended. The supply of tin ore is tight, the downstream consumption is in a rigid demand state, and the price is expected to be in a wide and moderately bullish range [1][18][19] - Gold and silver: They are expected to move in a range. Affected by the conflict between the US and Iran, inflation expectations, and interest rate expectations, the prices are in a callback state, and the mid-term price centers are moving up. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and trade cautiously [1][20][21] - Lithium carbonate: It is expected to trade in a range. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the progress of the export ban in Zimbabwe and the disturbances in the Yichun mining area [1][22] Energy and chemicals - PVC: It is expected to be moderately bullish. The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export is expected to maintain a high growth rate. It is recommended to operate within the range of the upward channel [1][23][24] - Caustic soda: It is expected to be moderately bullish. The demand from the alumina industry provides marginal support, and the export is expected to increase. The price is expected to rebound strongly at a low valuation, but be cautious about chasing highs [1][25] - Styrene: It is expected to be moderately bullish. Supported by the cost and with a low inventory pressure, it is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [1][26][27] - Polyolefins: They are expected to be moderately bullish. Supported by the cost and with an improvement in supply and demand, the price has upward momentum [1][28] - Rubber: It is expected to be moderately bullish. Affected by factors such as synthetic rubber and inventory pressure, it is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs [1][29][30] - Urea: It is expected to be moderately bullish and trade in a range. The supply is at a high level, the demand from the agricultural and compound fertilizer industries is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be moderately bullish [1][31] - Methanol: It is expected to be moderately bullish and trade in a range. Affected by the conflict in Iran, the supply may be in a shortfall, and the price is expected to be pushed up in the short term [1][33] - Soda ash: It is recommended to short at high prices. The supply is expected to remain high, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be under pressure [1][34] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: They are expected to be moderately bullish. The global cotton supply is increasing, the consumption is slightly decreasing, the domestic spot market is active, and the price is expected to be moderately bullish [1][36][37] - Apples: They are expected to move in a range. The market is in a state of polarization, and the prices in different regions vary [1][38] - Jujubes: They are expected to move in a range. The raw material acquisition in the production area is based on quality, and the trading is relatively light [1][39][40] Agricultural and livestock - Live pigs: For contracts 05 and 07, adopt a bearish approach on rebounds; for contract 09, treat it with a range-bound view. The current supply is greater than demand, and the price is in a bottoming-out stage. Pay attention to factors such as policies, second-round fattening, and frozen product storage [1][42] - Eggs: They are expected to trade in a range. The supply and demand are in a state of balance, and the price is close to the cost line. Pay attention to factors such as the rhythm of chicken culling, inventory depletion, and holiday备货 [1][43][44] - Corn: It is expected to trade in a short-term range. The supply and demand are in a state of balance, and the price is in a narrow range. Pay attention to factors such as the circulation of high-quality grain in the Northeast, the replenishment rhythm in North China, and the substitution of wheat [1][45] - Soybean meal: In the case of capital disturbances, be cautious about chasing long positions in contract 05. Affected by factors such as the progress of US soybean exports, Brazilian shipping, and Argentine production, the price is expected to be moderately bullish [1][46][47] - Oils and fats: They are expected to be in a high-level range. It is recommended to roll long positions and gradually reduce previous long positions. Affected by factors such as the conflict between the US and Iran, the supply and demand of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are different, and the price trends vary [1][47][53]

Report Core View - The "15th Five-Year Plan" system is clear, with 20 major indicators and 109 major projects advancing in tandem. The quantitative targets focus on economic growth, innovation drive, and green transformation. Compared with the "14th Five-Year Plan", two people's well - being indicators and two green - low - carbon indicators are added, and 109 major projects are deployed, with more emphasis on the industrial field [3]. - "Accelerating the construction of a financial power" is included in the national five - year plan for the first time. The "15th Five - Year Plan" represents a key shift in the capital market's functional positioning from focusing on "financing function" to "improving the capital market function that coordinates investment and financing" [4]. - The capital market work is systematically deployed in multiple chapters of the "15th Five - Year Plan", highlighting its overall role in serving the national overall strategy [5][6]. - The content related to the capital market in the "15th Five - Year Plan" is more detailed and operational, providing a clear roadmap for capital market reform in the next five years [7]. Grouped by Directory 1. "15th Five - Year Plan" System and Indicators - The "15th Five - Year Plan" establishes 20 major economic and social development indicators, with quantitative targets focusing on economic growth, innovation drive, and green transformation. Two people's well - being indicators and two green - low - carbon indicators are added compared to the "14th Five - Year Plan" [3]. - 109 major projects are deployed, an increase from 102 in the "14th Five - Year Plan", with more emphasis on the industrial field, focusing on key directions such as enhancing the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, ecological environment protection and governance, and social service system construction [3]. 2. Capital Market in the "15th Five - Year Plan" - "Accelerating the construction of a financial power" is included in the national five - year plan for the first time, and the capital market's functional positioning has shifted from focusing on "financing function" to "improving the capital market function that coordinates investment and financing" [4]. - The capital market work is deployed in multiple important chapters of the 18 - chapter, 62 - section "15th Five - Year Plan", including key areas such as accelerating high - level scientific and technological self - reliance, building a strong domestic market, etc., highlighting its overall role in serving the national overall strategy [5][6]. - The content related to the capital market in the "15th Five - Year Plan" is more detailed and operational, including building a science and technology finance system suitable for scientific and technological innovation, promoting domestic demand circulation, optimizing core basic systems, expanding financial opening - up, and improving the long - term capital entry mechanism [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds expected to trade in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; buying out - of - the - money call options for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Holding short positions or staying on the sidelines for copper at high prices; strengthening observation for aluminum; staying on the sidelines for nickel; range trading for tin; gold and silver expected to trade in a range; lithium carbonate expected to trade in a range [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, polyolefins expected to be bullish with oscillations; shorting soda ash at high prices; range trading for urea and methanol [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn expected to be bullish with oscillations; apples and jujubes expected to trade in a range [1] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, bearish on 05 and 07 contracts on rebounds, neutral on 09 contract; eggs expected to trade in a range; being cautious about chasing high for corn at high levels; being cautious about chasing long for soybean meal 05 contract; suggesting rolling long on oils and gradually reducing previous long positions [1] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market conditions, including macro - economic factors, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical events. It also analyzes the price trends and investment opportunities of different industries, taking into account factors such as production, consumption, inventory, and cost. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggesting buying on dips. Due to factors such as the significant downward revision of US Q4 GDP growth, low consumer confidence, and geopolitical events, stock indices may trade in a range [1][5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range. Influenced by factors such as China's new social financing and loan data, Sino - US trade negotiations, and geopolitical situations, the bond market shows a differentiated trend [1][6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable, with slow recovery of downstream demand [1][8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The rebar futures price is expected to be bullish with oscillations in the short term, considering factors such as cost, inventory, and demand [1][9] - **Glass**: Buying out - of - the - money call options. The glass market is affected by factors such as production cost, inventory, and demand, and is expected to trade at a high level with oscillations [1][10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Holding short positions or staying on the sidelines at high prices. The copper price is affected by macro factors and supply - demand relationships, and there are both upward and downward risks [1][13][14][15] - **Aluminum**: Strengthening observation. The aluminum market is affected by factors such as raw material prices, production capacity, and geopolitical situations, with both positive and negative impacts on prices [1][16][17] - **Nickel**: Staying on the sidelines. The nickel market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost, and the nickel price is expected to be bullish with oscillations [1][18] - **Tin**: Range trading. The tin market is affected by factors such as production, consumption, and inventory, and the tin price is expected to be bullish with wide - range oscillations [1][19][20] - **Gold and Silver**: Expected to trade in a range. Affected by geopolitical events and interest rate expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to adjust with oscillations [1][21][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Expected to trade in a range. The lithium carbonate market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policy risks, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate [1][24] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Bullish with oscillations. The PVC market is affected by factors such as cost, supply, demand, and export policies, and is expected to be bullish in the short term [1][25][27] - **Caustic Soda**: Bullish with oscillations. The caustic soda market is affected by factors such as demand, supply, and geopolitical situations, and is expected to rebound strongly in the short term [1][28][29] - **Styrene**: Bullish with oscillations. The styrene market is affected by factors such as cost, inventory, and export, and is expected to be bullish with oscillations [1][30] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish with oscillations. The polyolefin market is affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand, and is expected to be bullish [1][31] - **Rubber**: Buying on dips without chasing highs. The rubber market is affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand, and is expected to be bullish with oscillations [1][32] - **Urea**: Range trading. The urea market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory, and is expected to be bullish with oscillations [1][33][34] - **Methanol**: Bullish with oscillations. The methanol market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and geopolitical events, and the price is expected to be pushed up in the short term [1][35] - **Soda Ash**: Shorting at high prices. The soda ash market is affected by factors such as supply, inventory, and cost, and the price is expected to be under pressure [1][36] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish with oscillations. Affected by factors such as global cotton supply - demand and consumption expectations, the price is expected to be bullish with oscillations [1][37] - **Apples**: Expected to trade in a range. The apple market shows a polarized trading situation, and the price is relatively stable [1][38] - **Jujubes**: Expected to trade in a range. The jujube market has a slow trading atmosphere after the Spring Festival, and the price is relatively stable [1][40] Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: For 05 and 07 contracts, bearish on rebounds; neutral on 09 contract. The pig market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policies, and the price is expected to bottom out with oscillations [1][41] - **Eggs**: Expected to trade in a range. The egg market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory, and the price is expected to trade in a range [1][43] - **Corn**: Bullish with oscillations, being cautious about chasing high at high levels. The corn market shows a differentiated pattern, and the price is expected to trade in a range in the short term [1][44][45] - **Soybean Meal**: Bullish on 05 contract, buying on dips. The soybean meal market is affected by factors such as US soybean prices, Brazilian harvest, and domestic supply - demand, and the price is expected to be bullish [1][46] - **Oils**: Bullish with oscillations at high levels, suggesting rolling long and gradually reducing previous long positions. The oil market is affected by factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand relationships, and inventory, and the price is expected to trade at a high level with oscillations [1][47][51]