Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium - long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to move in a range [1][5][6] - **Black building materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; shorting May and longing September contracts for glass [1][8][9][11] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Short - term range trading for copper, with a focus on 98,000 - 106,000; strengthening observation for aluminum; moderately holding long positions on dips for nickel; range trading for tin; bullish - biased range movement for gold, silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1][13][16][18] - **Energy and chemicals**: Bullish - biased oscillation for PVC, methanol, polyolefins; low - level oscillation for caustic soda; shorting on rallies for soda ash; long - allocating on dips without chasing highs for styrene, rubber; range trading for urea, methanol [1][25][28][31] - **Cotton - spinning industry chain**: Bullish - biased oscillation for cotton and cotton yarn, apples; range movement for red dates [1][39][41][42] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Cautiously shorting on rallies for May contracts of live hogs, with a bearish - biased rolling strategy; shorting on rallies of near - month contracts for eggs if the culling does not accelerate; range operation for corn due to a high short - term basis; shorting on rallies for soybean meal; bullish - biased oscillation for oils, and suggesting long - allocating soybean and palm oils on dips [1][44][45][49] Core Views - The global market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, economic data, and supply - demand relationships. Different sectors in the futures market show diverse trends and investment opportunities. Geopolitical events like the US - Israel conflict with Iran have a significant impact on the market, especially on precious metals and energy - related products. Economic data from the US and China also influence market expectations. Supply - demand imbalances in various industries drive price movements [5][14][21] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock indices**: The US - Iran conflict and economic data from both the US and China affect the market. With external markets rebounding and domestic economic policies in focus, stock indices are expected to be bullish - biased in the medium - long term, and investors are advised to buy on dips [5] - **Government bonds**: The bond market lacks a clear trading direction. Medium - short - term bonds are favored by institutions, while long - term bonds are mainly dominated by trading - volume players. The market is waiting for clearer guidance from important meetings, and government bonds are expected to move in a range [6] Black building materials - **Coking coal**: After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable. Coal mines are resuming production, but trading is sluggish. Downstream demand is mainly for inventory digestion, and short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price is oscillating. The current valuation is low, but the demand drive is weak in the short term. With inventory accumulation and the need to focus on post - festival demand recovery, range trading is suggested [9] - **Glass**: Affected by the Spring Festival, the glass market has weak demand and rising inventory. The supply of soda ash is not favorable. The market shows a pattern of weak reality and strong expectations, and shorting May and longing September contracts are recommended [11] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: After the Chinese New Year, the copper price has moved up, but inventory accumulation and weak demand limit its upward momentum. The geopolitical conflict may push up the price indirectly. In the long term, demand from new energy, power, and AI computing supports the price, and short - term range trading with a focus on 98,000 - 106,000 is advised [13][14] - **Aluminum**: The price of domestic bauxite is stable. Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities have changed. The downstream demand is gradually picking up, but inventory pressure is high. The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and strengthening observation is recommended [16] - **Nickel**: The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia supports the price. However, refined nickel demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. Overall, nickel prices are expected to be bullish - biased, and moderately holding long positions on dips is recommended [18] - **Tin**: The production of refined tin has decreased, and imports have increased. The semiconductor industry is recovering, but the supply of tin ore is tight. The price is expected to oscillate bullishly, and range trading is suggested [19] - **Gold and silver**: Geopolitical conflicts have increased risk - aversion sentiment, and the weakening of the US economy and expectations of interest - rate cuts support the prices. Both are expected to move in a bullish - biased range, and buying on dips after sufficient corrections is recommended [21][22] - **Lithium carbonate**: Supply is affected by mine production and imports, and demand is strong. With supply disturbances, the price is expected to oscillate bullishly [24] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is relatively low, supply is high, and domestic demand is weak. However, export demand is good, and there are short - term opportunities due to export tax rebates. The price is expected to oscillate bullishly in the short term, and trading within the rising - channel range is recommended [25] - **Caustic soda**: Demand is supported by alumina production, and there is potential for export improvement. Supply may be affected by maintenance. With low valuation, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level [28] - **Styrene**: Geopolitical factors push up the price through cost. There is inventory support, but the increase in supply may suppress the rise. It is expected to oscillate bullishly, and long - allocating on dips without chasing highs is recommended [29] - **Polyolefins**: Geopolitical conflicts support the cost. Supply is high, but downstream demand is expected to improve. The price is expected to oscillate bullishly [31] - **Rubber**: There is a game between cost support and inventory pressure. The price is expected to oscillate bullishly, and long - allocating on dips without chasing highs is recommended [32] - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, but demand from industry and agriculture is also rising. The conflict in Iran may affect the international supply and drive up the price. The price is expected to be bullish in March and may face pressure later [34][35] - **Methanol**: The conflict in Iran may cause a supply shortage. Domestic supply and demand have their own characteristics, and the price is expected to oscillate bullishly [36] - **Soda ash**: Supply is expected to remain high, and inventory pressure is increasing. The price is expected to be under pressure, and shorting on rallies is recommended [38] Cotton - spinning industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has changed. After the festival, consumption expectations are rising, and the price is expected to oscillate bullishly [39] - **Apples**: The apple trading is stable, with some local price fluctuations. The sales in the distribution area are okay, and the price is expected to oscillate bullishly [41] - **Red dates**: The acquisition price of Xinjiang grey dates is in a certain range, and the price is expected to move in a range [42] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Live hogs**: The short - term price is oscillating at the bottom due to oversupply. In the medium - long term, the supply may decrease, but the price increase is limited. A bearish - biased rolling strategy for May contracts and a cautious bullish view for July and September contracts are recommended [44] - **Eggs**: The current egg price is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Although there is potential demand support, the supply is sufficient. If the culling does not accelerate, shorting on rallies of near - month contracts is recommended [45] - **Corn**: The short - term price is oscillating due to the game between supply and demand. The medium - long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Range operation with caution on high - price chasing is recommended [47] - **Soybean meal**: The US soybean market is affected by South American production and demand factors. The domestic supply - demand situation is relatively loose. Shorting on rallies is recommended [49] - **Oils**: Affected by international crude oil prices, oils are expected to oscillate bullishly. Different oils have different supply - demand situations, and long - allocating soybean and palm oils on dips is recommended [50][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [1][5][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; short May and long September for glass [1][8][10][11] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term range trading for copper, with a focus on 98000 - 106000; strengthen observation for aluminum; moderately hold long positions on nickel on dips; range trading for tin; bullish - biased range for gold and silver; range - bound for lithium carbonate [1][14][16][18][20][21][23][24] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Bullish - biased range for PVC and caustic soda; short on soda ash on rallies; long on styrene and rubber on dips without chasing highs; range trading for urea and methanol; bullish - biased range for polyolefins [1][26][28][29][31][32][33][35][36] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Bullish - biased range for cotton and cotton yarn, apples; range - bound for red dates [1][37][39][42] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Be cautious about shorting the May contract of live hogs, and take a short - biased approach on rallies; short on near - month egg contracts on rallies if the culling does not accelerate; range trading for corn; short on soybean meal on rallies; bullish - biased range for oils, with a cautious approach on chasing long positions for soybean and palm oils [1][43][45][46][47][49] 2. Core Views - **Market Influences**: Geopolitical events such as the war between the US - Israel and Iran, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have significant impacts on the market, increasing risk - aversion sentiment and affecting commodity prices. Policy factors, including fiscal and monetary policies, also play important roles in market trends [5][6][15][21][23] - **Commodity - specific Views**: Each commodity has its own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market expectations, which determine their price trends and trading strategies. For example, some commodities are affected by production capacity changes, while others are influenced by seasonal demand or international trade policies [9][10][17][26] 3. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the medium to long term, they are bullish. Due to external market pressure and domestic two - sessions news, they may trade in a range. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range. Policy signals are clear, and with geopolitical disturbances, they may be bullish - biased [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market is weak and stable after the Spring Festival. Mines are resuming production, but trading is weak. It is recommended for short - term trading [8][9] - **Rebar**: The price is trading in a range. The valuation is low, but the demand drive is weak. It is necessary to focus on the post - festival demand recovery [10] - **Glass**: The market is weak. There is a plan to short the May contract and long the September contract. The fundamentals are deteriorating, and the market shows a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is in a high - level range. Although there is short - term inventory accumulation and weak demand, long - term demand support exists. It is recommended for short - term range trading with a focus on 98000 - 106000 [14][15] - **Aluminum**: The price is in a high - level range. Supply expectations are improving, but inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to strengthen observation [16][17] - **Nickel**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia provides support, but demand recovery is slow [18][19] - **Tin**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased in a range. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is stable. It is recommended for range trading [20] - **Silver and Gold**: The prices are expected to be bullish - biased in a range. Geopolitical events increase risk - aversion sentiment, and the central price level is expected to rise. It is recommended to build long positions on dips [21][22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is expected to be in a range. Supply disturbances exist, and demand is strong. It is necessary to pay attention to export policies and supply disruptions [24][25] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The price is in a low - level wide - range. Although the domestic demand is weak, there are short - term export supports. It is recommended for short - term bullish - biased trading within the rising channel [26] - **Caustic Soda**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased. There are support factors such as spring maintenance and downstream replenishment, and it is necessary to pay attention to supply and demand changes [28] - **Styrene**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased. Cost support is strong, but there is supply pressure in March. It is recommended to long on dips without chasing highs [29] - **Polyolefins**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased. Geopolitical conflicts support the cost, and the downstream demand is expected to improve [31] - **Rubber**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased. There is cost support, but inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to long on dips without chasing highs [32] - **Urea**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased in a range. Supply and demand are both increasing, but the price may be under pressure in the middle and late March to April [33][34] - **Methanol**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased in a range. The war in Iran may cause supply shortages, and it is necessary to pay attention to supply and demand changes [35] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short on rallies. Supply is excessive, and the price is expected to be under pressure [36] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased. Post - festival consumption expectations are rising, and external cotton prices are strong [37] - **Apples**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased. The trading is stable, and the price is relatively stable [41] - **Red Dates**: The price is expected to trade in a range. The acquisition price is based on quality [42] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Hogs**: The price is in the process of bottom - building. It is necessary to be cautious about shorting the May contract and take a short - biased approach on rallies. Pay attention to secondary fattening, frozen product storage, and policy changes [43][44] - **Eggs**: If the culling does not accelerate, it is recommended to short on near - month contracts on rallies. Pay attention to inventory digestion and demand recovery [45] - **Corn**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased in a range. Short - term supply - demand game is intense, and long - term supply - demand is relatively loose [46] - **Soybean Meal**: It is recommended to short on rallies. The overall supply - demand is loose, and it is necessary to pay attention to soybean arrivals and auctions [47] - **Oils**: The price is expected to be bullish - biased in a range. Driven by international crude oil, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing long positions for soybean and palm oils [49][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives specific trading suggestions for various futures products [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides trading strategies and market analysis for multiple futures sectors, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - spinning industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [1][6][8] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Mid - to long - term optimistic, buy on dips. Before the Two Sessions, it may oscillate. Influenced by geopolitical events and economic data [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillate. Policy signals are clear, and the game between the equity and bond markets may intensify. Geopolitical disturbances may lead to a decline in risk appetite, and treasury bonds may oscillate strongly [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable. Mines are resuming production, but trading is weak, and downstream demand recovery is slow [8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The rebar futures price is low in valuation and has weak driving forces. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the post - festival demand recovery [9] - **Glass**: Short May and long September. The market is weak in the short term, with increased inventory and weak demand. There is a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation [10][11] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term range trading, focus on 98000 - 106000 yuan/ton. The price has moved up after the festival, but inventory has increased, and demand is limited. Geopolitical events may push up the price, but the upward momentum may be insufficient [13][14] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. The supply expectation is improving, but inventory pressure is large. The market trading logic remains unchanged, and the price is pushed up by the Middle East situation, but the sustainability is limited [16] - **Nickel**: Buy moderately on dips. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia supports the price, but demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. It is expected to run strongly [17][18] - **Tin**: Range trading. The supply of tin ore is tight, and downstream demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to supply and demand changes [19] - **Gold and Silver**: Oscillate strongly. Geopolitical events increase risk - aversion sentiment, and the US economic data is weak. The central price is expected to move up, and it is recommended to buy on dips after a full correction [20][21][22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range oscillation. Supply disturbances exist, and the demand is strong. It is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies [23][24] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. The cost is low, supply is high, and domestic demand is weak. Exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate. It is recommended to operate in the range and pay attention to policies and cost changes [25] - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillate at a low level. Demand support is weak, and there is inventory pressure. Spring maintenance and downstream replenishment may support the price, and it is expected to oscillate [27] - **Styrene**: Buy on dips but do not chase highs. The price is supported by cost due to geopolitical events. There is inventory pressure in March, and attention should be paid to new orders [28] - **Polyolefins**: Oscillate strongly. Geopolitical conflicts strengthen cost support. Supply is high, and inventory is increasing. Downstream demand is expected to pick up, and it is expected to run strongly [29] - **Rubber**: Buy on dips but do not chase highs. It oscillates strongly under the game of cost support and inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to inventory, demand, and market sentiment [30] - **Urea**: Range trading. Supply is increasing, and demand is also increasing. The price is expected to run strongly in March and may be under pressure later. Attention should be paid to the Iran situation [31][33] - **Methanol**: Range trading. The war in Iran may cause a supply gap. Domestic supply and demand are relatively stable, and inventory is at a certain level. It is expected to run strongly [34][35] - **Soda Ash**: Short on rallies. Supply is high, inventory pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to spring maintenance [36] Cotton - Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate strongly. The global cotton supply - demand situation is changing, and domestic consumption is expected to pick up after the festival. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [37] - **Apples**: Oscillate strongly. The trading is stable, and the price is relatively stable. The sales in the distribution area are okay, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [39] - **Red Dates**: Oscillate. The acquisition price in the production area is based on quality, and the market is relatively stable [40] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: Be cautious about shorting the May contract, and short on rallies. In the short term, the price is oscillating at the bottom due to oversupply and seasonal factors. In the long term, the supply may tighten, but the price increase is limited. Attention should be paid to capacity reduction [41][42] - **Eggs**: If the culling does not accelerate, short on rallies for near - month contracts. The egg price is stable, and the supply is normal but the demand has not fully recovered. The market will be in a bottom - grinding stage, and attention should be paid to culling and demand [42] - **Corn**: Oscillate strongly. The short - term basis is high, and it is recommended to operate in the range. The supply - demand game is intense in the short term, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose in the long term. Attention should be paid to weather and sales rhythm [43] - **Soybean Meal**: Short on rallies. The US soybean price is affected by multiple factors, and the domestic supply - demand is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to soybean arrivals and auctions [44][45] - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillate strongly. Oils and fats follow the international crude oil to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to buy soybean and palm oils on dips. Different oils have different supply - demand situations [45][50]

Report Overview - The report is a copper专题 report by Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd., focusing on measuring different types of excess copper inventories in the US [1] 1. Trump's Tariff and Key Mineral Timeline - On February 1, Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from Mexico and Canada starting from February 4, with a 10% tax increase on Canadian energy products and a 10% tariff on China [2] - On February 10, Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum, effective March 12 [2] - On February 25, Trump initiated a copper import investigation under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, covering all copper categories. The market generally expects the copper tariff in 2025 to reach 25% [2] - On July 9, Trump announced a 50% tariff on all imported copper starting from August 1 [2] - On July 30, Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1, excluding copper concentrates, cathode copper, anode copper, and copper scrap [2] - On August 25, the US Department of the Interior proposed to list copper as a key mineral in the 2025 Key Mineral List Draft [2] - On November 6, the US Department of the Interior officially included copper in the US strategic mineral list [2] 2. 232 Tariff - Related Copper Categories - The 232 tariff involves various copper categories, including copper matte, unrefined copper, copper alloys, copper scrap, etc., with corresponding HS codes [3] 3. COMEX and LME Copper Price Trends - Before Trump's tenure, COMEX and LME copper prices were basically the same with a small price difference [6] - In February 2025, as Trump imposed 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum and initiated a 232 investigation on copper, COMEX copper rose significantly relative to LME copper, with an implied tax rate of about 10% [6] - On July 9, 2025, after Trump announced a 50% 232 tariff on imported copper, COMEX copper jumped relative to LME copper, with an implied tax rate of about 25% [6] - On July 30, 2025, after Trump announced a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives, COMEX copper dropped to be basically the same as LME copper [6] 4. COMEX Copper Inventory Analysis - Since the second half of 2024, the copper inventories in LME and COMEX have been on the rise [9] - In February 2025, as Trump imposed 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum and initiated a 232 investigation on copper, the growth rate of COMEX copper inventory accelerated significantly and continued until February 2026 [9] - On August 25, 2025, after the US Department of the Interior proposed to list copper as a key mineral, COMEX copper inventory jumped and then continued to rise at the previous rate [9] - On November 6, 2025, after copper was officially included in the US strategic mineral list, the growth rate of COMEX copper inventory accelerated again [9] 5. US Copper and Its Products Import and Export Analysis - Usually, the US imports mainly refined copper and exports mainly copper scrap [12] - In February 2025, after Trump imposed 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum and initiated a 232 investigation on copper, the import of refined copper in the US increased rapidly, corresponding to the rapid growth of COMEX inventory [12] - On July 30, 2025, after Trump announced a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives, the import of refined copper in the US decreased rapidly, but the COMEX inventory still grew rapidly [12] - On November 6, 2025, after copper was officially included in the US strategic mineral list, the import of refined copper in the US increased rapidly again, and the growth rate of COMEX copper inventory accelerated [12] 6. Excess Copper Inventory Measurement Total Excess Inventory - The total excess inventory in the US is estimated to be 964,000 tons, including 715,000 tons caused by 232 tariffs, 13,000 tons caused by reduced downstream demand due to rising copper prices, and 236,000 tons caused by copper being listed as a key mineral [18] Visible Inventory - In the current 601,000 - ton COMEX copper inventory in the US, the normal inventory is estimated to be 94,000 tons, and the excess inventory is estimated to be 507,000 tons, including 376,000 tons caused by 232 tariffs, 7,000 tons caused by reduced downstream demand due to rising copper prices, and 124,000 tons caused by copper being listed as a key mineral [19] Invisible Inventory - The excess inventory in the invisible inventory is estimated to be 457,000 tons, including 339,000 tons caused by 232 tariffs, 6,000 tons caused by reduced downstream demand due to rising copper prices, and 112,000 tons caused by copper being listed as a key mineral [20]

Report Information - Report title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report date: March 2, 2026 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side faces issues such as the non - resumption of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine, the suspension of lithium ore exports in Zimbabwe, and ongoing mining license disturbances in Yichun. Although imports have increased, the overall cost is rising, and the cost reduction space for Australian mines is limited. Some lithium ore - purchasing manufacturers face cost - price inversion [5][7]. - The demand side shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. The overall production schedule in March has increased month - on - month, and policies such as the new energy vehicle purchase tax are expected to support the growth of the new energy vehicle market [6]. - The inventory of lithium carbonate is in a destocking state. Considering the continuous supply disturbances and the strong downstream demand, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to fluctuate [6][7]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Views Supply - side situation - Production: The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 165 tons to 21,150 tons, and the January production decreased by 3% month - on - month [5]. - Mines: The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, the Zimbabwe Ministry of Mines announced a suspension of all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports, and there are still disturbances regarding mining licenses in Yichun. The cost control of Australian mines in the third quarter has limited further cost - reduction space [5]. - Imports: In December 2025, the import of lithium concentrate in China was 789,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. The import of lithium carbonate in December was 23,989 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9% [5]. - Cost: The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week. Some manufacturers producing lithium carbonate by purchasing lithium ore faced cost - price inversion. Self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises had certain profit support, and lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. Demand - side situation - Production and sales: In March, the overall production schedule increased month - on - month. In January, the combined output of power and energy storage batteries in China was 168.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 16.7% but a year - on - year increase of 55.9%. The combined export was 24.1 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 26.0% but a year - on - year increase of 38.3%. The sales volume was 148.8 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% but a year - on - year increase of 85.1% [6]. - Policy: The new energy vehicle purchase tax policy is expected to support the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market in China [6]. Inventory situation - This week, the inventory of lithium carbonate showed a destocking state [6]. Strategy suggestions - Considering the supply - side disturbances such as the non - resumption of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine, the suspension of exports in Zimbabwe, and the Yichun mining license risks, along with the strong downstream demand and the continuation of the destocking trend, it is expected that the subsequent import of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Zimbabwe export ban and the Yichun mining - end disturbances [7]. 02. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot tax - included average price of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate, average prices of industrial - grade lithium carbonate and lithium concentrate, monthly factory inventory of lithium, production of power and other batteries, production volume differences of domestic power batteries and lithium iron phosphate, monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, average production cost of lithium carbonate, average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate, import volume of lithium spodumene, and market price of ternary material 8 - series NCA - type [9][10][13][17][19][21][24][27][29][31][35][36]. - In January 2026, the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials accounted for 18.06% from salt lakes, 24.55% from lithium mica, and 45.37% from lithium spodumene [22][23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increased by 4.2% to 57% compared with before the holiday. After the holiday, the downstream start - up will gradually rise and enter the peak season rhythm. Although the inventory pressure is large and the supply expectation has improved, the market trading logic has not changed. Coupled with the escalation of the Middle East situation, aluminum prices are still driven. However, as the Middle East situation is expected to cool down, the sustainability of the market is limited [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - economic Indicators - The content shows the trends of the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year and 2 - year), the US dollar index, the US 10 - year Treasury yield and real yield, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, but no specific analysis is given [5]. 3.2 Bauxite - The price of domestic bauxite is stable compared with before the holiday. After the Spring Festival, the domestic bauxite market has not started substantial transactions. Most mines in Shanxi, Henan and other places are still in a shutdown state. Some mines will resume production around the Lantern Festival, and some will postpone until after the Two Sessions. Issues such as mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental protection supervision are difficult to be fundamentally solved in the short term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore remained stable at $60.5 per dry ton compared with before the holiday. The import ore price is stable in the short - term. After the Spring Festival, the procurement side is in a short - term wait - and - see period, and the miners' reluctance to sell is increasing. The shipping volume of Guinea bauxite continues to increase, and the spot supply of imported ore continues to increase, putting pressure on the ore price [8]. 3.3 Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, unchanged from before the holiday, and the operating capacity was 93.5 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from before the holiday, with an operating rate of 82.3%. The weighted price of domestic alumina spot was 2,659.9 yuan per ton, a rise of 28 yuan per ton from before the holiday. The national alumina inventory was 5.284 million tons, an increase of 49,000 tons from before the holiday. The second - phase roasting end of a large alumina plant in Hebei was completely shut down due to policy influence, and the dissolution link continued to decline compared with before the Spring Festival. Two alumina enterprises in Shanxi are in the stage of maintenance. Supply - side disturbances support the alumina price [11]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.402 million tons, unchanged from before the holiday, and the operating capacity was 44.7 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from before the holiday. With the strengthening of aluminum prices, the future supply expectation of electrolytic aluminum has improved. New production capacity: Zha Aluminum's 350,000 - ton project has entered the trial - production stage, Tianshan Aluminum's second - phase 80,000 - ton project is still under construction and is expected to reach full production within the year. Guangxi Longlin is accelerating the revitalization of 57,100 tons of idle production capacity, and there are rumors that an electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Liaoning may resume production. Overseas, Huatong Angola Industrial Co., Ltd.'s first - phase 120,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project is in production and may reach full production in the second quarter; the first batch of 500,000 - ton of the North Kalimantan electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia is in production. The Slovak government will seek to restart the Slovalco aluminum plant with a capacity of about 200,000 tons, and production may resume as early as summer; the about 200,000 - ton production capacity reduction of Iceland's Grundartangi electrolytic aluminum plant will resume production half a year earlier than planned, starting at the end of April [20]. 3.5 Inventory - After the Spring Festival, the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased significantly, and it will continue to increase in the short term. The report also shows the inventory trends of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures, and LME aluminum from 2022 to 2026 [3][25][26][27][28]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 6.2% to 53.1% compared with before the holiday. The resumption of production in the first week after the holiday was slow. Most enterprises resumed work from the eighth to the fifteenth day of the first lunar month, initially focusing on furnace pre - heating. On the demand side, the terminal industries resumed work in an orderly manner, but the release of orders was not obvious. Downstream procurement was mainly for rigid - demand replenishment and inventory digestion [31]. 3.7 Downstream Start - up - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 4.2% to 57% compared with before the holiday. - Aluminum profiles: The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises increased by 11.5% to 37% compared with before the holiday. After the Spring Festival, profile enterprises gradually entered the resumption of work and production stage, and the operating level increased significantly compared with before the holiday. In the industrial profile sector, photovoltaic profiles performed relatively well, while in the building profile sector, the performance was still weak. - Aluminum strips: The operating rate of leading aluminum strip enterprises increased by 4% to 67% compared with before the holiday. In the first week after the Spring Festival, the overall resumption of work in the industry was slow. Some enterprises completed equipment upgrading and maintenance during the Spring Festival and have gradually resumed work. The recovery rhythm of the downstream is different. There is no signal of warming in the building downstream, and there is a shortage of orders for curtain wall panels and aluminum veneers. Orders for high - value - added products such as automobile panels and aviation panels are relatively stable. - Aluminum cables: The operating rate of leading domestic cable enterprises increased by 4% to 57% compared with before the holiday. The power grid continued to place orders after the holiday, matching and revitalizing enterprise orders. The resumption of work of enterprises after the holiday slightly exceeded expectations. The downstream start - up and production will bottom out and rebound. - Primary aluminum alloy: The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises decreased by 1.5% to 55.8% compared with before the holiday. The holiday factor led to a general decline in enterprise operations, and the downstream enterprises had concentrated holiday time. The resumption of production after the holiday was slower than in previous years, and the overall demand was poor [39][44][48].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The copper price is expected to remain strong at a high level, but the continuous upward momentum may be insufficient due to the lack of resonance between the macro and fundamental aspects and the slow progress of inventory reduction in the short term [2]. - The aluminum price is likely to experience shock adjustments. The supply expectation is improving, but the inventory pressure is relatively large. The escalation of the Middle - East situation will support the aluminum price [2]. - The zinc price may show a shock - adjustment trend. Although the fundamentals have weak support, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may lead to a short - term strengthening of the zinc price [2]. - The lead price is expected to rise steadily after the Lantern Festival. It is advisable to buy on dips within the range of 16,600 - 17,600 [2]. - The nickel price is predicted to maintain a strong shock. It is recommended to buy on dips, while for stainless steel, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - The tin price is likely to continue the shock - strengthening trend. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to the supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3]. - The industrial silicon and polysilicon fundamentals are still weak. It is recommended to moderately over - allocate polysilicon and wait and see for industrial silicon [3]. - The lithium carbonate price is expected to continue the shock trend due to supply disruptions [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - During the Spring Festival, LME copper was pressured initially and then rebounded. The escalation of the war between the US - Israel and Iran will push up the copper price in the short term, but the continuous upward momentum may be insufficient. Next week, the copper price may remain strong at a high level [2]. - The 2025 January - October copper production in Iran was about 320,000 tons, accounting for 1.7% of the global production [2]. Aluminum - The domestic bauxite price was stable compared with before the festival. The alumina operating capacity decreased by 200,000 tons, and the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 24,000 tons [2]. - New investment projects are in progress, and overseas projects are also being put into production. The downstream processing enterprise start - up rate increased by 4.2% to 57% [2]. - The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased significantly during the Spring Festival, and the inventory pressure of recycled aluminum is relatively large. The escalation of the Middle - East situation is beneficial to electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy but negative for alumina [2]. Zinc - Last week, the zinc price showed a strong shock. The macro uncertainty is still high. The zinc concentrate processing fee is at a low level, and the downstream enterprises' actual consumption is limited [2]. - The zinc ingot inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may lead to a short - term strengthening of the zinc price [2]. Lead - Last week, the Shanghai lead main contract rebounded. The inventory is at a high level, and the price of lead concentrate and lead ingot increased after the festival [2]. - After the Lantern Festival, the lead price may rise steadily. It is advisable to buy on dips within the range of 16,600 - 17,600 [2]. Nickel - Last week, Shanghai nickel showed a strong operation. The tailings dam incident in Indonesia drove the nickel price. The nickel ore price rose, and the nickel iron price is expected to increase [3]. - The short - term supply - demand of refined nickel is still weak, and the stainless steel price increased slightly. The sulfuric acid nickel price decreased weakly [3]. - The nickel price is expected to maintain a strong shock, and it is recommended to buy on dips. For stainless steel, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. Tin - The refined tin production in January decreased by 8.1% month - on - month and increased by 4.7% year - on - year. The tin concentrate import in December increased [3]. - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue to recover. The tin supply is tight, and the price is expected to continue the shock - strengthening trend. It is recommended to conduct range trading [3]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The weekly output of industrial silicon increased by 270 tons, and the plant inventory increased. The production of polysilicon decreased, and the plant inventory increased [3]. - The demand for polysilicon is poor after the festival, and the price decreased. The industrial silicon price is at the bottom and fluctuating. It is recommended to moderately over - allocate polysilicon and wait and see for industrial silicon [3]. Lithium Carbonate - The production of lithium carbonate in January decreased by 3% month - on - month. The import of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate increased in December [3]. - The downstream demand is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The supply disruption may cause the lithium carbonate price to continue the shock trend [3]. Macro - economic Data - In the week of 2/23 - 3/1, important economic data included the US durable goods orders, China's LPR, and the euro - zone CPI [10]. - In the week of 3/2 - 3/8, important economic data included the euro - zone manufacturing PMI and the US employment data [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the war between the US, Israel and Iran, the death of the Supreme Leader Khamenei, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the risk - aversion sentiment has increased, leading to an increase in precious metal prices. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept the interest rate unchanged, the US employment situation has slowed down, and Powell said that the changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates. After the nomination of Warsh, the market still expects two interest - rate cuts this year, but there may be a restart of balance - sheet reduction. The US economic data shows a downward trend, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver have shifted upwards. The platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and it is expected that the prices of platinum and palladium will have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the Iranian situation and the US February non - farm payroll data to be released on Friday [12]. - It is expected that the prices will continue to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to build positions at low prices after the prices have fully corrected [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Due to the war between the US, Israel and Iran, the death of the Supreme Leader Khamenei, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and the gold price has risen. As of last Friday, the US gold closed at $5296 per ounce, up 3.2% for the week. The upper resistance level is $5470, and the lower support level is $5200 [7]. - Due to the same reasons, the silver price has risen. As of last Friday, the weekly increase was 11.6%, closing at $94.4 per ounce. The lower support level is $84, and the upper resistance level is $110 [10]. 3.2 Weekly View - The reasons for the increase in precious metal prices are the same as those in the market review. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept the interest rate unchanged, the US employment situation has slowed down, and Powell said that the changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates. After the nomination of Warsh, the market still expects two interest - rate cuts this year, but there may be a restart of balance - sheet reduction. The US economic data shows a downward trend, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver have shifted upwards. The platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and it is expected that the prices of platinum and palladium will have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the Iranian situation and the US February non - farm payroll data to be released on Friday [12]. - It is expected that the prices will continue to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to build positions at low prices after the prices have fully corrected [13]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data and trends of the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rate (10 - year TIPS yield), yield spread (10Y - 2Y), US Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), Fed balance - sheet size, gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price [16][18][21][24]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Current Week - The US January PPI annual rate was 2.9%, higher than the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 3%. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 21 was 212,000, lower than the expected 215,000 but higher than the previous value of 206,000 [26]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Current Week - The US and Israel launched a war against Iran, the Supreme Leader Khamenei has died, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Attention should be paid to the intensity of Iran's counter - attack and the scope of conflict spread. - The US January PPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year, far higher than the expected 2.6%; it increased by 0.5% month - on - month, also higher than the expected 0.3%. Excluding food and energy with large fluctuations, the January core PPI increased by 3.6% year - on - year, far higher than the expected 3%; it increased by 0.8% month - on - month, also higher than the expected 0.3% [27]. 3.6 Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 18,634.10 kg to 1,036,403.92 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory decreased by 12 kg to 105,060 kg. - This week, the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 184,273.82 kg to 11,207,602.01 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 46,963 kg to 306,596 kg [14][31]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of February 24, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 162,188 lots, an increase of 7,597 lots compared with last week. - As of February 24, the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 20,723 lots, a decrease of 2,133 lots compared with last week [14][35]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday (March 4) at 21:15, the change in the US February ADP employment number will be released. - On Friday (March 6) at 21:30, the seasonally - adjusted change in the US February non - farm employment population and the US February unemployment rate will be released [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - tight logic of copper remains unchanged, and geopolitical conflicts have a significant impact on the copper market. The supply - demand imbalance in the copper market persists, and the copper price may operate strongly at a high level in the long term, but there are uncertainties in the short - term due to factors such as inventory and geopolitical situations [5][84]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Shanghai Copper Market Review**: In February, the copper price maintained a volatile trend with a monthly increase of 0.02%. As of February 27, the closing price of Shanghai copper was 103,920 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, influenced by Trump's tariff remarks and the continuous increase in LME inventory, the London copper price once declined. Then, due to various factors such as the US Supreme Court's ruling and geopolitical situations, the price rebounded. The supply - demand of copper remained tight, and attention should be paid to the war between the US - Israel and Iran, inventory inflection points, and macro - sentiment changes [5][6]. 3.2 Macro - factor Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the US, the CPI growth rate slowed down in January, but the PCE data showed stubborn inflation pressure, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts retreated. The labor market still had some resilience, but the previous employment data was significantly revised downwards, indicating that the weakness of the US employment market in 2025 exceeded expectations. In February, the US manufacturing and service PMI growth rates slowed down, and the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2025 also slowed down. The US dollar index first decreased and then increased [11][18]. - **Domestic Macro**: In China, the CPI increase in January was affected by the Spring Festival, and the PPI increased for four consecutive months. The social financing scale increment in January reached 7.22 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale stock increased year - on - year. The M2 - M1 scissors gap narrowed. In January, the manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indexes all declined, and the economic prosperity level decreased. In 2025, the GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, and the industrial enterprise profits increased for the first time in four years [20][21][23]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Mine - end Supply**: In 2025, global copper mine disruptions were frequent. The total global copper concentrate output from January to December was 23.112 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. The output growth rate continued to decline. As of February 27, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 514,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%, remaining at a low level in previous years [33]. - **Smelting End**: Due to the continuous shortage of copper mines, the processing fees remained at a historical low. The long - term copper concentrate processing fee benchmark in 2026 decreased compared with 2025. The spot rough smelting fee was at a historical low. In February 2026, the domestic southern rough copper processing fee increased, and the imported CIF rough copper processing fee remained flat for four consecutive months [36]. - **Refined Copper**: In January 2026, the copper production capacity utilization rate increased. In February, the SMM China electrolytic copper output decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected that the output will further increase in March [38]. - **Import and Export**: In 2025, China's electrolytic copper imports decreased, and exports increased. The net import volume dropped to the lowest level in the past three years. In February, the import profit remained negative and slightly widened [41]. - **Scrap Copper**: In December, China's scrap copper imports increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In 2025, the import volume of recycled copper raw materials increased. In February, the refined - scrap copper price difference first increased and then decreased [44]. - **Processing Link**: In January 2026, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises decreased, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was weak. The operating rate of copper foil continued to rise [46][50]. - **Terminal Demand**: In 2025, the growth rate of power project investment slowed down, while the installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power increased stably. The real estate industry was still at the bottom - grinding stage, and policies continued to be introduced. The new energy vehicle industry maintained a high - growth trend, and the output and sales of household appliances remained stable [55][58][62][64]. - **Inventory**: As of February 27, the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory and the domestic copper social inventory increased significantly month - on - month. The COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate, and the LME copper inventory increased significantly, driving the continuous increase of global copper visible inventory [67][69]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic spot discount widened, and the LME 0 - 3 maintained a discount [72]. - **Long and Short Positions in Domestic and Foreign Markets**: As of February 27, the Shanghai copper futures positions and trading volume decreased significantly. The net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions and COMEX copper asset management institutions decreased [74]. 3.4 Future Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: The US - Israel's war against Iran may significantly push up the prices of major non - ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum in the short term due to factors such as increased risk - aversion sentiment, supply disruptions, and a sharp rise in energy costs [83]. - **Fundamental - aspect**: After the Spring Festival in China, the copper price has moved up, but the social inventory has accumulated more than expected, and the spot is in a large - discount market. The downstream enterprises' resumption of work is slow, and the demand is limited. The geopolitical conflict may indirectly push up the copper price, but the copper price may lack the power to continue rising in the short term. In the long term, the demand for new energy, power, and AI computing power still provides support, and the copper price may operate strongly at a high level. Attention should be paid to the duration and intensity of the war, the global economic recession expectation, and the inventory reduction progress [84].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In March, steel prices are expected to have a slight rebound, but there are risks of price drops in the second half of the month. The inventory of steel products after the Spring Festival is estimated to peak at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years, slightly higher than last year. Usually, the inventory reaches its peak and starts to decline around the fourth week after the Spring Festival, and it is expected that inventory reduction will begin in mid - to late March. Attention should be paid to the progress of demand recovery. From a valuation perspective, the futures price of rebar is below the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces and the long - process cost, with a relatively low static valuation [3][61]. Summary by Directory 01 Review: Black Futures Fell across the Board, with Raw Materials Weaker than Finished Products - **Black - Spot Market**: In February, the spot prices of black products showed a differentiated trend. Among finished products, both rebar and hot - rolled coils declined, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar slightly widened. Among raw materials, scrap steel and coking coal rose slightly, iron ore prices fell significantly, and coke prices remained flat month - on - month. For example, Shanghai rebar fell by 50 yuan (-1.54%), and the price of iron ore (Platts 62%) dropped by 42 yuan (-5.32%) [10][11]. - **Black - Futures Market**: In February, black futures prices fell across the board. Among finished products, rebar and hot - rolled coils fell by about 2%, with rebar's decline less than that of hot - rolled coils. Among raw materials, the decline was more significant than that of finished products, with iron ore leading the decline, falling 5.55%, and the decline of coking coal and coke also around 4.6% [13][14]. - **Futures Market**: In February, commodity prices showed mixed trends, and even within the same sector, the internal trends were quite differentiated [17]. 02 Outlook: Low Inventory Pressure, Focus on Demand Quality - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: The Fed's January meeting minutes released a hawkish signal, with a significant divergence among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates. In January, US inflation was slightly lower than expected, and the unemployment rate declined. The US tariff policy changed, with a reduction of 20 percentage points on Chinese - exported goods first and then an addition of 15 percentage points, resulting in a decrease in the tariff burden on Chinese goods exported to the US. However, high - tariff barriers on the steel and aluminum industries will remain [26]. - **Domestic Demand - Overall Economic Situation**: In 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.0% year - on - year, with fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) having a year - on - year growth rate of -3.8%. The total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and the total value of goods imports and exports increased by 3.8% year - on - year. In 2026, it is expected that policies will be more proactive, with boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as the key focus areas [27]. - **Domestic Demand - Infrastructure Construction**: In December 2025, the investment in broad - based infrastructure continued to decline, with a year - on - year decrease of 16%. In 2026, as the start of the 15th Five - Year Plan, corresponding supportive policies are expected [33]. - **Demand - Real Estate**: In 2025, the real estate market remained weak, with a year - on - year decline in real estate development investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area. The 15th Five - Year Plan aims to promote high - quality development in the real estate sector, and Shanghai released the "Seven Measures for the Property Market" in February 2026 to further relax housing purchase restrictions [38]. - **Demand - Manufacturing**: In 2025, manufacturing investment increased by 0.60%. In December 2025, the investment growth rate further declined from -4.45% in November to -10.55%. In January 2026, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing's prosperity level [40][41]. - **Demand - Import and Export**: In 2025, China exported 11,902 tons of steel, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%, and imported 606 tons of steel, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. The net export of steel was 11,296 tons, a year - on - year increase of 905 tons (8.7%). The export of steel billets was 1,482 tons, a year - on - year increase of 848 tons. Since January 1, 2026, export license management has been implemented for some steel products, putting pressure on steel exports [47]. - **Supply**: In 2025, China's crude steel production was 96,081 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% (4,428 tons), and the production of rebar was 18,631 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.30% [54]. - **Supply - Demand Projection**: In February, the demand for rebar weakened seasonally, production continued to decline, and inventory increased significantly. Currently, the inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. It is estimated that the post - festival peak inventory of steel products will be at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years, slightly higher than last year. Usually, the inventory reaches its peak and starts to decline around the fourth week after the Spring Festival, and it is expected that inventory reduction will begin in mid - to late March [55][59]. 03 Strategy: Slight Rebound in Steel Prices, Beware of Risks in the Second Half of the Month - In March, steel prices are expected to have a slight rebound, but there are risks of price drops in the second half of the month. The overseas conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran may push up the prices of raw materials and boost black commodity prices in the short term. Domestically, attention should be paid to the economic goals set in the government work report during the Two Sessions. From a valuation perspective, the futures price of rebar is below the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces and the long - process cost, with a relatively low static valuation [3][61].