1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, Shanghai copper showed a weak and volatile trend. As of March 13, it closed at 100,310 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.73%. The shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee for copper concentrates continues to remain at a historical low. In March, production may reach a record high. The decline in copper prices led to an increase in new orders from downstream and an increase in production starts. The accumulation of domestic copper inventories slowed down but remained at a high level. The ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran has led to a continuous rise in crude oil, increasing global inflation expectations, reducing market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates this year, and the strengthening of the US dollar index has suppressed copper prices. Overall, copper prices are under pressure [5]. - The supply - side shows that the shortage at the mine end persists, and the spot TC of copper concentrates has hit a new historical low. The supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates is relatively abundant, and the domestic blister copper processing fee is at a multi - year high. The electrolytic copper production in February was seasonally low, and it is expected to increase in March. On the demand side, the decline in copper prices has led to an increase in the start - up rate of refined copper rods, and the copper foil industry has maintained a high start - up rate. The inventory situation is that the accumulation of domestic copper inventories has slowed down, LME inventories continue to accumulate, and COMEX inventories continue to decline. Considering the geopolitical situation and inventory levels, copper prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [9][10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategies 3.1.1 Last Week's Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper showed a weak and volatile trend. As of March 13, it closed at 100,310 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.73%. The shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee for copper concentrates continues to remain at a historical low. In March, production may reach a record high. The decline in copper prices led to an increase in new orders from downstream and an increase in production starts. The accumulation of domestic copper inventories slowed down but remained at a high level. The ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran has led to a continuous rise in crude oil, increasing global inflation expectations, reducing market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates this year, and the strengthening of the US dollar index has suppressed copper prices [5]. 3.1.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis - Supply: The shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired. As of March 13, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 404,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.17%. The spot smelting fee for copper concentrates was - 60.02 US dollars/ton, hitting a new historical low. The supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates is relatively abundant, and the domestic blister copper processing fee is at a multi - year high. The electrolytic copper production in February was 1.1424 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% and a year - on - year increase of 7.96%. It is expected to increase in March [9][30]. - Demand: In February, the start - up rates of copper foil, copper strip and copper rod were 88.56%, 41.98% and 22.78% respectively. The start - up rate of the copper foil industry was much higher than the same period in previous years. From March 6th to March 12th, the start - up rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 72.92%, a month - on - month increase of 10.45 percentage points. After the sharp decline in copper prices, the daily new order volume increased exponentially [9][33]. - Inventory: As of March 13, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 43.34 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.96%. As of March 12, the copper inventory in the mainstream areas of the country was 573,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.57% compared with March 5th. As of March 13, the LME copper inventory was 311,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.67%, and the COMEX copper inventory was 591,600 short tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05% [10][36]. 3.1.3 Strategy Suggestions - The ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran has led to a continuous rise in crude oil, increasing global inflation expectations, reducing market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates this year, and the strengthening of the US dollar index has suppressed copper prices. Fundamentally, the tight supply pattern of mines continues, and the spot TC in the copper concentrate market has fallen slightly to - 60.02 US dollars/ton, remaining at a low level. Domestic post - holiday consumption has exceeded market expectations, and inventory decline has occurred earlier than expected. Downstream enterprise demand continues to recover, and there is still room for improvement in subsequent demand. However, high overseas inventories have further suppressed market sentiment. It is necessary to closely monitor the duration of the Middle East war and the progress of inventory reduction. If the Iran conflict continues and crude oil prices rise further, copper prices may face a downward risk, and it is expected that copper prices will be under pressure and fluctuate [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market and Positioning Situation 3.2.1 Premium and Discount - Shanghai copper is in a contango structure. The decline in copper prices during the week stimulated the recovery of demand, and the spot discount of Shanghai copper continued to rise. Subsequently, the delivery logic dominated the market, and the spot of Shanghai copper maintained a premium. Currently, the LME copper inventory has increased significantly, the LME 0 - 3 discount has widened, and the New York copper spread has reversed [17]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of March 13, the trading volume of Shanghai copper futures was 190,911 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 2.44%; the average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper during the week was 111,932 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 28.42%. As of March 6, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was - 1,386.08 lots, a week - on - week increase of 65.35%. As of March 10, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 47,676 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 1.69% [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - side - The shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired. As of March 13, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 404,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.17%. The spot smelting fee for copper concentrates was - 60.02 US dollars/ton, hitting a new historical low. The supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates is relatively abundant, and the domestic blister copper processing fee is at a multi - year high. The electrolytic copper production in February was 1.1424 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% and a year - on - year increase of 7.96%. It is expected to increase in March [30]. 3.3.2 Downstream Start - up - In February, the start - up rates of copper foil, copper strip and copper rod were 88.56%, 41.98% and 22.78% respectively. The start - up rate of the copper foil industry was much higher than the same period in previous years. From March 6th to March 12th, the start - up rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 72.92%, a month - on - month increase of 10.45 percentage points. After the sharp decline in copper prices, the daily new order volume increased exponentially [33]. 3.3.3 Inventory - As of March 13, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 43.34 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.96%. As of March 12, the copper inventory in the mainstream areas of the country was 573,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.57% compared with March 5th. As of March 13, the LME copper inventory was 311,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.67%, and the COMEX copper inventory was 591,600 short tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05% [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The ongoing war between the US and Iran, with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, has led to rising oil prices, an increase in inflation expectations, and a delay in interest - rate cut expectations, causing a correction in precious metal prices. The Fed's January meeting kept interest rates unchanged, and the US employment situation has slowed. The market expects the interest - rate cut to be postponed to September, with a more hawkish stance on interest - rate cut expectations. The US economic data is trending weaker, and concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence remain. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends continue. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to rise. Platinum and palladium lease rates remain relatively high, suggesting support for their prices. Attention should be paid to the Fed's March interest - rate decision [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Due to the ongoing war between the US and Israel against Iran and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have risen, inflation expectations have increased, interest - rate cut expectations have been postponed, and gold and silver prices have corrected. As of last Friday, the US gold closed at $5023 per ounce, down 3.1% for the week, with an upper resistance level of $5200 and a lower support level of $4900. The US silver closed at $80.7 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 4.8%, a lower support level of $77, and an upper resistance level of $86 [7][10] 3.2 Weekly View - The war between the US and Iran continues, with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, leading to rising oil prices, increased inflation expectations, and postponed interest - rate cut expectations, causing a correction in precious metal prices. The Fed's January meeting kept interest rates unchanged, and the US employment situation has slowed. The market expects the interest - rate cut to be postponed to September, with a more hawkish stance on interest - rate cut expectations. The US economic data is trending weaker, and concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence remain. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends continue. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to rise. Platinum and palladium lease rates remain relatively high, suggesting support for their prices. Attention should be paid to the Fed's March interest - rate decision. It is expected that prices will continue to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and watch and trade cautiously [12][14] 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The document presents multiple charts related to overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, real interest rates (10 - year TIPS yield), exchange rates (euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar), US Treasury yields (10 - year, 2 - year, inflation - indexed Treasury bonds), interest rate spreads (10Y - 2Y), the Fed's balance - sheet size and its weekly changes, the gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trends [16][19][23] 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The US February CPI annual rate unadjusted was 2.4%, in line with expectations and the previous value. The US January PCE price index annual rate was 2.8%, lower than the expected 2.9% and the previous value of 2.9% [25] 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - Iran's new Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei said on Thursday that Iran will continue to fight and use the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip to pressure the US and Israel. The US Treasury Secretary said that the US Navy may, when military conditions allow, jointly with an international coalition, provide escort for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The US February inflation and core inflation met expectations and were flat compared to the previous value. The February CPI increased 2.4% year - on - year (previous value 2.4%, expected 2.4%), and 0.3% month - on - month (previous value 0.2%, expected 0.3%); the core CPI was 2.5% year - on - year (previous value 2.5%, expected 2.5%), and increased 0.2% month - on - month (previous value 0.3%, expected 0.2%) [26] 3.6 Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 16,494.69 kg to 1,012,467.51 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory increased by 384 kg to 105,417 kg. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 230,871.51 kg to 10,628,787.83 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory increased by 70,614 kg to 326,566 kg [14][30] 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of March 10, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 165,679 contracts, an increase of 5,788 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 23,736 contracts, an increase of 1,062 contracts from last week [14][34] 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday, March 18, at 20:30, the US February PPI annual rate will be released. On Thursday, March 19, at 02:00, the Fed's March interest - rate decision will be announced, and at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending March 14 will be released [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East war continues, enhancing the global inflation expectation, and the non - ferrous metals market is generally in an adjustment state [1]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices are affected by macro factors and fundamentals, with potential downward risks but also support from domestic de - stocking and strong consumption [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Viewpoint Summary - **Copper**: High - level range operation (98000 - 106000), with prices under pressure in the high - level range. Macro factors have an increasing reverse impact, and the supply and demand situation is complex. It's recommended to hold short positions moderately on rallies or wait and see [3]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating upward. The price of domestic bauxite is stable, and the alumina price is rising. The supply is affected by the Middle - East situation. It's recommended for long - side allocation [3]. - **Alumina**: Low - level oscillation. The downstream demand is gradually picking up, and it's recommended for short - term long - side trading [3]. - **Aluminum alloy**: Oscillating upward. The impact of the Middle - East situation on prices is two - sided, and it's recommended for long - side allocation while controlling positions [3]. - **Zinc**: Oscillating and adjusting, tending to be weak. The supply and demand fundamentals provide limited support, and it's recommended to hold short positions moderately on rallies [3]. - **Lead**: Breaking through the support level and moving downward. The inventory is increasing rapidly, and it's recommended to hold short positions moderately on rallies [3]. - **Nickel**: Oscillating. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it's recommended for short - term short - side trading [4]. - **Stainless steel**: Oscillating. It's recommended for short - term trading [4]. - **Tin**: Wide - range oscillation. The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is in a recovery state. It's recommended for range trading [4]. - **Industrial silicon**: Oscillating and rebounding. The production and inventory situation is changing, and it's recommended to hold long positions moderately on dips [4]. - **Polysilicon**: Low - level oscillation. It's recommended to allocate long positions moderately and wait for policy signals [4]. - **Lithium carbonate**: Wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand are both increasing, and it's recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.2 Macro - **Macro Hotspots**: In the week from March 9th to March 15th, important economic data were released. For example, China's February CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year. The US February CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.5% year - on - year [13][14]. - **Next Week's Macro Data Calendar**: From March 16th to March 22nd, a series of important economic data are scheduled to be released, including China's February social consumer goods retail sales and the US February core PPI [19]. 3.3 Copper - **Market Review**: This week, copper prices were under pressure in the high - level range. The macro factors had a significant impact, and the fundamentals were complex [3]. - **Key Data Tracking**: Include LME copper (spot/three - month) premium/discount, COMEX institutional positions, and global visible copper inventory [28][30][35]. 3.4 Aluminum - **Market Review**: This week, the aluminum price was in a high - level oscillation with an overall upward trend [40]. - **Key Data Tracking**: Include the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods, social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and the cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum [44][46][48]. 3.5 Zinc - **Market Review**: This week, zinc prices adjusted after a rise and showed a weakening trend [53]. - **Key Data Tracking**: Include the inventory of zinc in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, global visible zinc inventory, and the premium of 0 zinc ingots [56][57][61]. 3.6 Lead - **Market Review**: This week, lead prices oscillated downward and fluctuated within a certain range [65]. - **Key Data Tracking**: Include the inventory of lead in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, global lead inventory, and the lead forward curve [67][70][75]. 3.7 Nickel - **Market Review**: This week, nickel prices continued to oscillate and adjust, with a short - term weakening trend [79]. - **Key Data Tracking**: Include the inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, LME nickel inventory, and the price of high - nickel iron and Jinchuan nickel plates [82][83][88]. 3.8 Tin - **Market Review**: This week, tin prices oscillated and declined, with a wide - range oscillation [96]. - **Key Data Tracking**: Include the futures closing price of tin, tin premium/discount, and tin - related product prices [98][99][104]. 3.9 Gold, Silver and Other Varieties - **Trend Analysis**: Gold, platinum, silver, and palladium are in different states of oscillation. Gold maintains an overall upward trend, while silver oscillates and adjusts, and palladium has a wide - range oscillation [110][111][113]. - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon has a wide - range oscillation, polysilicon oscillates downward, alumina has a certain trend, and aluminum alloy oscillates and rebounds with upward pressure. Lithium carbonate oscillates and rebounds with a wide - range oscillation [115][116][118][120].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Pig - Short - term: Pig prices are in a bottom - grinding phase. The supply exceeds demand due to increased出栏 plans in March, high pig weights, and seasonal consumption slump, limiting price rebounds. Attention should be paid to policies, second - round fattening, and frozen product warehousing for price support. - Medium - to - long - term: Supply is abundant in the first half of the year, pressuring price rebounds. Supply will gradually tighten from July to October due to capacity reduction from September to December 2025, but price increases are cautiously viewed as sow inventory in December 2025 was above the equilibrium level, combined with cost - cutting and potential supply post - ponement [4]. Egg - Short - term: With high egg - laying hen inventory, limited terminal consumption growth restricts egg price increases. - Medium - to - long - term: Although new - laying hen increments are limited, high inventory pressure persists due to slow capacity clearance, and the supply - demand situation is unlikely to improve fundamentally [5][76]. Corn - Short - term: Tight supply - demand conditions support high prices, but policy expectations and substitution demand may suppress price increases. - Medium - to - long - term: Supply will increase, while demand is weak, leading to a looser supply - demand pattern and potential market corrections [6][108]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Feed and Livestock Farming View Summary Pig - **Price**: As of March 13, the national spot price was 10.03 yuan/kg, down 0.26 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 10.18 yuan/kg, down 0.37 yuan/kg. The main 2605 futures contract closed at 11,150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The 05 contract basis was - 970 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan/ton. - **Supply**: Supply in 2026 is generally abundant. Pressure is high in the first half of the year, but supply will decrease marginally from July to October. The March sample出栏 plan increased month - on - month. The average出栏 weight continued to rise. - **Demand**: Slaughter rates and volumes slowly recovered, but pork consumption entered the off - season, with a slight decline in fresh sales rate and increased frozen product inventory. - **Cost**: Piglet and sow prices declined, and breeding profits for self - breeding and purchasing piglets both decreased. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling approach for 05 and 07 on rebounds; treat 09 with a neutral view; be cautious about bullishness for 11 and 01 before effective capacity reduction. Farmers can conduct rolling hedging at profitable levels [4]. Egg - **Price**: As of March 13, the average price in the main producing areas was 3.1 yuan/jin, up 0.15 yuan/jin; in the main selling areas, it was 3.14 yuan/jin, up 0.14 yuan/jin. The main 2605 futures contract closed at 3,433 yuan/500 kg, up 44 yuan/500 kg. The basis was - 593 yuan/500 kg, up 66 yuan/500 kg. - **Supply**: The inventory of laying hens remained at a high level. Although the number of old hens出栏 increased, the supply pressure was only temporarily relieved. In the long run, high inventory pressure persists. - **Demand**: Egg demand continued to recover, but terminal consumption was still in the off - season, and the recovery lacked sustainable momentum. - **Strategy**: In the short term, beware of callback risks after over - consuming demand benefits and avoid chasing high prices. In the long term, focus on capacity clearance and real demand recovery before making investment decisions [5][76]. Corn - **Price**: As of March 13, the平仓 price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,420 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The main 2605 futures contract closed at 2,386 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The basis was 34 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton. - **Supply**: The supply remained tight. Farmers' grain - selling progress in Northeast and North China was slower than last year, and effective market supply was insufficient. - **Demand**: Deep - processing demand was supported by rigid needs, while feed - end procurement was cautious. - **Strategy**: In the short term, go long on dips with a light position and seize upward opportunities. In the long term, take profits gradually at high prices and beware of callback risks [6][108]. 02 Variety Industry Data Analysis Pig - **Price**: National spot price, Henan pig price, and futures price all declined slightly. The basis weakened [4][8][11]. - **Supply**: The average出栏 weight increased, the proportion of large pigs出栏 increased, and the proportion of small pigs出栏 decreased. The 3 - month sample出栏 plan increased month - on - month. - **Demand**: Slaughter rates and volumes increased, but the fresh sales rate decreased, and the frozen product inventory rate increased. - **Cost**: Piglet and sow prices decreased, and breeding profits for self - breeding and purchasing piglets both decreased [4][8]. Egg - **Price**: Spot and futures prices both increased slightly, and the basis strengthened [57][76]. - **Supply**: The inventory of laying hens remained high. The number of old hens出栏 increased, and the inventory in production and circulation decreased. - **Demand**: Egg sales increased, and the inventory in each link decreased, but terminal consumption was still in the off - season [58][76]. Corn - **Price**: The spot price increased slightly, and the futures price decreased slightly. The basis strengthened [82][108]. - **Supply**: The grain - selling progress in Northeast and North China was slower than last year, and the market supply was tight. - **Demand**: Deep - processing demand increased, while feed - end procurement was cautious [83][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The supply crisis of aluminum is still intensifying. It is recommended to allocate more positions while controlling the position size. Attention should still be paid to the development of the situation. The impact of the Middle East situation on aluminum prices is two - sided. Currently, the positive factors outweigh the negative ones, but it is not certain. The downstream start - up is gradually rising, entering the peak season rhythm, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots is still waiting for an inflection point [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly View - The price of domestic bauxite is temporarily stable, while the mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore increased by $2.2 per dry ton week - on - week to $63 per dry ton. The operating capacity of alumina increased by 200,000 tons week - on - week to 93.7 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increased by 25,000 tons week - on - week to 5.309 million tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 44.726 million tons. The downstream start - up rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises increased by 2.4% week - on - week to 61.9% [3]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Indicators - The document presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year and 2 - year), the US dollar index, the US 10 - year Treasury yield and real yield, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB [5]. 3.3. Bauxite - The price of domestic bauxite is temporarily stable, but it is difficult to maintain in the long term due to the large difference in the real - time theoretical cost between domestic and imported ores used by alumina plants. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore increased by $2.2 per dry ton week - on - week to $63 per dry ton. Although some mining enterprises have signed long - term shipping agreements, the increase in shipping costs and other factors have pushed up the price of imported ore from Guinea. The cost of bauxite has increased, but the supply of imported ore is increasing, and the ore price is still under pressure [8]. 3.4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the installed capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 93.9 million tons, increasing by 200,000 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 81.9%. The weighted price of domestic spot alumina was 2,700.4 yuan per ton, increasing by 26.8 yuan per ton week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 5.345 million tons, increasing by 36,000 tons week - on - week. The market rumor that Guinea may restrict bauxite exports has led to a stronger alumina price, which should be viewed with caution [11]. 3.5. Important High - Frequency Data of Alumina - The document presents data on the basis, port inventory, north - south price difference, and external transportation volume of alumina [13][14][15][16]. 3.6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the installed capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.422 million tons, remaining unchanged week - on - week, and the operating capacity was 44.726 million tons, increasing by 10,000 tons week - on - week. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will gradually affect the production of electrolytic aluminum in the region, and the sharp rise in European natural gas prices has raised concerns about aluminum plant production cuts in Europe. There are new investment and restart projects both at home and abroad [20]. 3.7. Important High - Frequency Data of Electrolytic Aluminum - The document presents data on the processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, the forward curve of Shanghai aluminum, the pit - mouth price and car - board price of thermal coal, and the import profit of aluminum [22]. 3.8. Inventory - The document presents the social inventory data of aluminum rods and ingots, as well as the inventory data of Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures and LME aluminum [24][25][26][27]. 3.9. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The start - up rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 2.5% week - on - week to 58.8%. However, due to policy uncertainty and tight supply of compliant raw materials in some regions, the overall start - up level has not returned to the pre - holiday level. The traditional peak season in March has been weak, and downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand [30]. 3.10. Important High - Frequency Data of Cast Aluminum Alloy - The document presents data on the average price of profile aluminum, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the seasonal trend of the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots [32][33][34][35]. 3.11. Downstream Start - up (First Part) - The start - up rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 2.4% week - on - week to 61.9%. The start - up rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises increased by 7.3% week - on - week to 51.8%, and the production of profile enterprises has fully returned to the pre - holiday normal rhythm. The start - up rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises increased by 1% week - on - week to 70%, but the order volume of automobile plates has decreased [38][42]. 3.12. Downstream Start - up (Second Part) - The start - up rate of leading domestic cable enterprises increased by 2% week - on - week to 65%, and the production rhythm has further accelerated. The start - up rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 1.8% week - on - week to 53%, but the spot trade is light due to the high aluminum price [46].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of soybean meal is expected to be strong due to slower shipping from Brazil, tightened domestic supply - demand, and rising costs caused by higher oil prices. Attention should be paid to Brazil's shipping and auction situations [8]. - In the short - term, the prices of oils and fats will maintain a high - level volatile trend due to the continuous escalation of the Middle East war. Palm oil and soybean oil are relatively strong, while rapeseed oil is relatively weak. A rolling long strategy is recommended [71]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of March 13, the spot price in East China was 3350 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton week - on - week. The M2605 contract closed at 3128 yuan/ton, up 213 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis quote was 05 + 200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [8][10]. 3.1.2 Supply - The March USDA report maintained the production of US and Brazilian soybeans and slightly reduced Argentina's soybean production, with the global soybean harvest pattern continuing. Brazil's soybean harvest progress accelerated, but domestic logistics capacity was mismatched, increasing domestic truck freight and ocean freight. Brazil's slow shipping led to a further downward adjustment of the expected arrival of soybeans in China from March to April, and soybeans and soybean meal were still in a destocking cycle [8]. 3.1.3 Demand - China's pig inventory remained high but entered a seasonal off - peak period, with the pig inventory decreasing month - on - month. Poultry inventory was high, and the addition ratio of soybean meal decreased. Overall, the demand for soybean meal remained high. The purchase sentiment of downstream buyers improved recently, with the national oil mill's soybean inventory slightly decreasing to 572.67 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory slightly increasing to 76.05 million tons [8]. 3.1.4 Cost - Based on the current US soybean price of 1200 cents, a premium of 120 cents, and a 2.9 oil - meal ratio, the theoretical price of soybean meal was 3025 yuan/ton. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans from July to September was 3100 yuan/ton. The planting cost of US soybeans in the 2026/27 season was 1218 cents per bushel, and it was expected to rise if oil prices continued to increase. The import crushing profit improved, with the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans around 200 yuan/ton [8]. 3.1.5 Market Summary - Due to lower - than - expected shipping from Brazil, tightened domestic supply - demand, and rising costs from higher oil prices, the overall price of soybean meal was strong. Attention should be paid to Brazil's shipping and auction situations [8]. 3.2 Oils and Fats 3.2.1 Periodic and Spot Market - As of the week of March 13, the palm oil main 05 contract rose 550 yuan/ton to 9768 yuan/ton, the soybean oil main 05 contract rose 278 yuan/ton to 8690 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil main 05 contract rose 155 yuan/ton to 9821 yuan/ton. The corresponding spot prices also increased, and the basis of palm oil and rapeseed oil increased, while that of soybean oil decreased [71][73]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - The MPOB February report showed that Malaysia's palm oil production and exports both decreased month - on - month, with the end - of - period inventory higher than expected. In March, production increased, but exports also increased significantly due to the transfer of some demand from Indonesia. Indonesia's accelerated B50 biodiesel policy was beneficial to palm oil demand. In China, the palm oil inventory continued to accumulate in February but was expected to destock from March to April [71]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - The USDA March report had a neutral impact. Market attention was on the Middle East situation, US soybean demand, and South American soybean production. Positive factors such as China's potential purchase of US soybeans and the expected increase in US biodiesel blending volume supported the price of US soybeans. In China, the soybean inventory was expected to decrease in the first quarter, but the large - scale arrival of South American soybeans after March would limit the further decrease of soybean oil inventory [71]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The Middle East war increased the import cost of rapeseed and tightened the domestic supply of rapeseed oil. However, China's reduction of the comprehensive import tax on Canadian rapeseed and the arrival of previously purchased rapeseed from March to May were expected to ease the supply - demand tension [71]. 3.2.5 Weekly Summary and Strategy - In the short - term, the continuous escalation of the Middle East war supported the prices of oil and fats. Palm oil and soybean oil were relatively strong, while rapeseed oil was relatively weak. A rolling long strategy was recommended [71].

Report Title - The report is titled "Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report" [2] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows that the production of carbonate lithium last week increased by 720 tons to 23,720 tons, with a 17.6% month - on - month decrease in February production. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine is still shut down, Zimbabwe has suspended all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports, and there are still disturbances in Yichun's mining licenses. In December 2025, the import of lithium concentrate in China was 789,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%, and the import of carbonate lithium was about 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.4%. The cost of imported lithium spodumene concentrate remained flat week - on - week, and the smelting start - up rate increased [4][6]. - On the demand side, the overall production schedule in March increased month - on - month, and the industrial chain is in a situation of strong supply and demand. In February, the combined production of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 141.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 15.7% and a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. The combined export was 23.9 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. The sales volume was 113.2 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 23.9% and a year - on - year increase of 25.7%. The new energy vehicle purchase tax policy is expected to support the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market sales [5]. - In terms of inventory, this week, the carbonate lithium inventory showed a destocking state, with factory inventory decreasing by 125 tons and futures inventory increasing by 73 tons [5]. - Overall, with both supply and demand increasing, it is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the progress of Zimbabwe's export ban and the disturbances in Yichun's mining end [6]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Viewpoints Supply - side Information - Last week, carbonate lithium production increased by 720 tons to 23,720 tons, and February production decreased by 17.6% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine is still not in production, Zimbabwe has suspended all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports, and there are still risks in Yichun's mining licenses. In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and there is extremely limited room for further cost reduction. In December 2025, China imported 789,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. The import of lithium concentrate from Australia decreased by 27% month - on - month, from Zimbabwe increased by 20% to 130,000 tons, and from Nigeria decreased by 13% to 80,000 tons. In December, 23,989 tons of carbonate lithium were imported, a month - on - month increase of 9%, with 14,000 tons from Chile, accounting for 56%. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate remained flat week - on - week, and the weekly start - up rate of carbonate lithium smelting rose to about 57%. Among them, the start - up rate of lithium extraction from spodumene rose to about 69%, from lithium mica rose slightly to about 31%, and from salt lakes rose slightly to about 58% [4]. Demand - side Information - In March, the overall production schedule increased month - on - month, and the industrial chain is in a situation of strong supply and demand. In February, the combined production of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 141.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 15.7% and a year - on - year increase of 41.3%. The combined export was 23.9 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. The sales volume was 113.2 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 23.9% and a year - on - year increase of 25.7%. The new energy vehicle purchase tax policy is expected to support the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicle market sales [5]. Inventory Information - This week, the carbonate lithium inventory showed a destocking state, with factory inventory decreasing by 125 tons and futures inventory increasing by 73 tons [5]. Strategy Suggestions - From the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo mine is still shut down, there are still risks in Yichun's mining licenses, February's domestic carbonate lithium production decreased by 17.6% month - on - month, December's import of lithium concentrate was 789,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%, and December's total import of carbonate lithium was about 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.4%. The downstream demand for export is strong, and the destocking trend continues. It is expected that subsequent imports of lithium salts from South America will supplement the supply. From the demand side, the industrial chain is in a situation of strong supply and demand, the expectation of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine's resumption of production is strong, and the expected import volume of lithium salts is expected to increase significantly. Zimbabwe has suspended all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports, and the risks in Yichun's mining licenses persist, with continuous supply disturbances. With profit restoration, lithium extraction from ore continues to increase production, and the cost center moves up. The expectation of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine's resumption of production rises, the shipment of lithium salts from South America increases, and the inventory continues to decline. Attention should be paid to the progress of Zimbabwe's export ban and the disturbances in Yichun's mining end. With both supply and demand increasing, it is expected that the price of carbonate lithium will continue to fluctuate [6]. 02. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the weekly and monthly production of carbonate lithium, weekly and monthly inventory, average price of carbonate lithium, average price of lithium concentrate, production cost of carbonate lithium, production of power and other batteries, production of different raw - material - based carbonate lithium, difference between domestic power battery production and loading volume, monthly production of lithium iron phosphate, monthly production of ternary materials, import volume of lithium spodumene, import volume of carbonate lithium, average price of lithium iron phosphate for power use, and market price of ternary material 8 - series NCA type [8][10][12][16][19][22][23][25][28][31][35][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the US-Iran conflict, the chemical sector has risen strongly. The urea futures price has increased, and the spot price has also risen. Although the weekly urea production load has slightly decreased, the overall market supply is still at a relatively high level. With the approaching of the spring plowing season, the agricultural fertilizer demand continues to increase, the compound fertilizer production capacity operation rate has increased, and the raw material replenishment has increased the demand for urea. The inventory level of urea enterprises is relatively low year-on-year, and the inventory reduction is smooth. Affected by the US-Iran incident, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Changes - The urea futures price opened higher and then fell back, but the price center continued to move up. On March 13, the closing price of the urea 2605 contract was 1,889 yuan/ton, an increase of 59 yuan/ton or 3.22% from the previous week. The highest price during the period was 1,954 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 1,831 yuan/ton. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1,852 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan/ton or 1.7% from the previous week [2][5]. - The main urea basis weakened compared with the previous week. On March 13, the main basis in the Henan market was -37 yuan/ton, and the weekly basis operation range was (-63) - (-13) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of urea fluctuated narrowly. On March 13, the 5 - 9 spread was -23 yuan/ton, and the weekly operation range was (-28) - (-13) yuan/ton [2][9]. Fundamental Changes Supply - The urea production load rate was 93.23%, a decrease of 0.39 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the production load rate of gas - based enterprises was 83.5%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average urea output was 219,700 tons. Some installations in regions such as Henan and Shandong were under maintenance or short - stopped, and the production load decreased slightly. Although some installations will be adjusted next week, the overall market supply level is still relatively high [2][12]. Cost - The price of anthracite coal fluctuated slightly. As of March 12, the含税 price of anthracite washed small pieces with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 880 - 930 yuan/ton; the含税 price of anthracite washed lumps with S1 - 1.5 in Yangquan, Shanxi was 780 - 840 yuan/ton, both of which were flat compared with the closing price of the previous week [2][15]. Demand - Agricultural demand: As the temperature warms up, the demand for wheat green - turning fertilizer is gradually released. The average pre - collection of major urea production enterprises is 6.5 days, and the weekly production and sales rate of urea enterprises is 101.3% [18]. - Industrial demand: The compound fertilizer enterprise production capacity operation rate was 45.56%, an increase of 8.54 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 748,900 tons, a decrease of 1.75 percentage points from the previous week. The melamine enterprise production load rate was 56.96%, an increase of 7.56 percentage points from the previous week, and the weekly output was 31,980 tons. It is expected that the production load rate of the melamine industry will gradually increase to over 60% next week. The demand support in the panel market has weakened [22][25][26]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 721,000 tons, a decrease of 149,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 439,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Urea port inventory was 269,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 8,055, totaling 161,100 tons, an increase of 2,369 receipts or 47,380 tons compared with the same period last year [2][29]. Main Operating Logic - Although the weekly production load has slightly decreased, the overall market supply level is still relatively high. The agricultural fertilizer procurement in various regions, the increase in the compound fertilizer production capacity operation rate, and the increase in raw material replenishment support the demand for urea. The inventory level of urea enterprises is relatively low year - on - year, and the inventory reduction is smooth. Affected by the US - Iran incident, the price fluctuates strongly [2]. Key Points to Watch - The operation of compound fertilizer production, the reduction and maintenance of urea installations, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the black sector continued to oscillate upward, with raw materials outperforming finished products. The futures market sentiment was strong due to the Middle East conflict, and the energy and chemical sector remained strong. [3] - Steel demand continued to recover, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down. On the raw material side, coking coal production increased rapidly, and there was post - holiday restocking in the coking coal downstream. Iron ore prices strengthened significantly last week due to more restricted circulation varieties. [3] - Steel, coking coal, and iron ore are all expected to oscillate strongly. [4] Summary by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector oscillated upward, and raw materials were stronger than finished products. [5] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The energy and chemical sector remained strong. [7] 03 Spot Prices - Coking coal prices fell slightly, while iron ore prices rose significantly. [9] 04 Profit and Valuation - Steel mill profits were poor, and the valuation of rebar futures was low. [11] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Steel demand continued to pick up, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down. It is expected that the inventory will peak and decline this week. [4][13] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - Affected by production restrictions in North China, hot metal production dropped significantly last week. Steel mill iron ore inventories decreased, and port inventories increased slightly. After the two - sessions ended, steel mills will resume production this week, and hot metal production is expected to rebound rapidly. Steel mills may have phased restocking, but the pressure on finished products is expected to increase. [4][22] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Raw coal production increased, and inventories gradually accumulated. With post - holiday restocking in the middle and lower reaches, upstream coal mines had a slight inventory reduction. [4][25] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production hovered at a low level, and the total inventory decreased slightly. Independent coking plant and port coke inventories decreased, while steel mill coke inventories increased. [4][27] 09 Variety Spreads - Steel mill's on - paper profits declined, and the rebar - to - iron ore ratio decreased. [29] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - Iran will continue strategic measures including blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The US may end military operations against Iran, but no internal instructions to stop have been received. [35] - The IEA agreed to release 4 billion barrels of strategic oil reserves. [35] - China's foreign trade had a good start in 2026, with the total value of goods trade imports and exports in the first two months reaching 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. However, China's steel exports from January to February decreased by 8.1% year - on - year. [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US Q4 GDP growth rate was significantly revised down to 0.7% due to government shutdown; the US March Michigan consumer confidence hit a three - month low; the US January core PCE price increased 3.1% year - on - year, a two - year high. With the continuation of the US - Iran war and many events and data within the week, the stock index may be under pressure [11]. - China's new social financing in February 2026 was 2.38 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 900 billion yuan, and M2 increased 9% year - on - year. Affected by the news of the 6th round of China - US economic and trade consultations in France and the strengthening of the US dollar index, the bond market sentiment turned cautious. Considering the high - volatility market caused by the international geopolitical situation, government bonds may fluctuate [13]. - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%. The decline in external demand and the risk of imported inflation need to be vigilant [19]. - In February 2026, CPI and core CPI both rebounded significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. After the Spring Festival, CPI may face downward pressure, and PPI may turn positive as early as March. Attention should be paid to the transmission from PPI to CPI [21]. - From January to February 2026, China's exports increased significantly year - on - year, mainly due to the "global manufacturing cycle up + export rush effect". AI investment wave may be the main driving force of this manufacturing cycle [23]. - In 2025, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was - 3.8%, and the decline in December continued to expand. The growth rate of private investment and public investment both declined [27]. - In 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail, social retail excluding automobiles, and above - quota retail all rebounded slightly compared with 2024. In December, the growth rate of social retail fell, while the decline of above - quota retail narrowed [30]. - In February 2026, new social financing was 2.4 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 0.9 trillion yuan. Social financing increased year - on - year, mainly supported by credit and non - standard financing. The social financing growth rate may face downward pressure but is expected to remain in an appropriate range [32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - Strategy outlook: Range - bound [11]. - Stock index trend review: Most stocks fell, with more than 3,800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closing down [11]. - Core view: Due to multiple factors such as the US economic data and the US - Iran war, the stock index may be under pressure [11]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the market index may fluctuate [11]. Government Bond Strategy Suggestions - Government bond trend review: The 30 - year main contract fell 0.25%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.07%, the 5 - year main contract was flat, and the 2 - year main contract was flat [13]. - Core view: Affected by various factors, the bond market sentiment turned cautious, and government bonds may fluctuate [13]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate [13]. - Strategy outlook: Fluctuating [13]. Key Data Tracking PMI - In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0%. The decline in external demand and the risk of imported inflation need attention [19]. CPI - In February 2026, CPI and core CPI both rebounded significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. After the Spring Festival, CPI may face downward pressure, and PPI may turn positive as early as March [21]. Import and Export - From January to February 2026, China's exports were 656.58 billion US dollars, imports were 442.96 billion US dollars, and the trade surplus was 213.62 billion US dollars. The high growth of exports was due to the "global manufacturing cycle up + export rush effect" [23]. Fixed - Asset Investment - In 2025, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was - 3.8%. In December, the growth rate of private investment was - 17.2%, and the growth rate of public investment was - 14.3% [27]. Social Retail - In 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail, social retail excluding automobiles, and above - quota retail were 3.7%, 4.4%, and 3.3% respectively. In December, the growth rate of social retail fell, while the decline of above - quota retail narrowed [30]. Social Financing - In February 2026, new social financing was 2.4 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 0.9 trillion yuan. Social financing increased year - on - year, mainly supported by credit and non - standard financing. The social financing growth rate may face downward pressure but is expected to remain in an appropriate range [32].