1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting treasury bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - Black building materials: Short - term trading for coking coal; range - trading for rebar; buying on dips for glass [1][5][7] - Non - ferrous metals: Waiting and seeing for copper, aluminum, and nickel; range - trading for tin, gold, and silver; expecting lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1][9][11] - Energy and chemicals: Range - trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporarily waiting and seeing for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to trade weakly in a range [1][17][19] - Cotton and textile industry chain: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range; expecting apples and jujubes to trade in a range [1][27][28] - Agriculture and livestock: Short - term shorting opportunities on rebounds for live pigs; hedging post - holiday contracts on rallies for eggs; cautious about chasing high for corn; expecting soybean meal to trade in a short - term range; expecting short - term limited回调 for oils and fats [1][29][34] 2. Core Views - The report provides comprehensive investment suggestions for various futures markets, considering factors such as supply - demand relationships, macroeconomic policies, and geopolitical situations. It emphasizes the need to pay attention to market trends, inventory changes, and policy impacts in different industries [1][5][7] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to trade in a range in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term. The market shows strong resilience. On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.29%. The defense, machinery, and building materials sectors led the gains, while the banking, petrochemical, and coal sectors declined [5] - Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range. There is no obvious major negative news in the bond market, but there is no further impetus for interest rates to decline. After the repair since the beginning of the year, the space for bond yields to decline is limited [5] Black building materials - Double - coking coal is expected to trade in a range, with short - term trading recommended. The coal market has shown short - term fluctuations recently, but the sustainability of the price increase is limited due to factors such as weak downstream demand and coal mine inventory clearance [6][7] - Rebar is expected to trade in a range. On Tuesday, the rebar futures price traded in a range. The valuation is relatively low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term [7] - Glass is recommended to be bought on dips. Although there are negative factors such as inventory and demand, the futures price is relatively low, and there are positive news in the real estate sector. Technically, the short - side strength is weakening [7][8] Non - ferrous metals - Copper is expected to have high - level volatility, and waiting and seeing is recommended. Macro factors have dominated the market this week, causing copper prices to fluctuate sharply. The supply is still tight, but the demand is weakening. There is a risk of high - level correction before the Spring Festival [9] - Aluminum is expected to have high - level volatility, and increased waiting and seeing is recommended. The bauxite price is under pressure, and the alumina inventory is increasing. The demand for downstream aluminum processing enterprises is weakening, and short - term high - level volatility is expected [10][11] - Nickel is expected to trade in a range, and waiting and seeing is recommended. Although the Indonesian nickel ore quota reduction has boosted the market, the fundamental situation is weak. Different nickel products have different supply - demand situations, and the price increase drive is insufficient [12][13] - Tin is expected to trade in a range. The domestic tin production and imports have changed. The semiconductor industry is recovering, but the supply of tin concentrate is tight. It is recommended to pay attention to supply and demand changes [13] - Gold and silver are expected to trade in a range. Trump's nomination of the new Fed chairman has led to an increase in hawkish expectations, but the central bank's gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged. The medium - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up [14][15] - Lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range. The supply is affected by factors such as mine production and imports, and the demand is in the off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the disturbances in the Yichun mining area [16][17] Energy and chemicals - PVC is expected to have low - level wide - range volatility. The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the domestic demand is weak. However, the export has growth potential. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices [17] - Caustic soda is expected to have low - level volatility, and temporary waiting and seeing is recommended. The demand is weak, the supply pressure is large, and there is short - term delivery pressure. It may have support if the market atmosphere of related commodities improves [19] - Styrene is expected to trade in a range. The inventory is expected to decrease due to factors such as export increases and device maintenance, but the current valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [19] - Rubber is expected to trade in a range. The global supply is in the seasonal reduction stage, and the cost has support. However, the inventory is accumulating seasonally, and the market is expected to trade in a range in the short term [20][21] - Urea is expected to trade in a range. The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and the inventory level is relatively low. The price is expected to trade in the range of 1730 - 1830 [22][23] - Methanol is expected to trade in a range. The domestic supply is decreasing, the demand from the olefin industry is weakening, and the traditional downstream demand is also weak. The price is affected by geopolitical and port factors [24][25] - Polyolefins are expected to trade weakly in a range. The supply is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and there is inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival. The price increase space is limited [25][26] - Soda ash: Temporary waiting and seeing is recommended. The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. After the supply contraction, the supply - demand contradiction may be alleviated [26] Cotton and textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust in a range. The global cotton supply and demand situation has changed, with a decrease in production and an increase in consumption. The internal - external price difference is suppressing the domestic market, but the long - term outlook is optimistic [27][28] - Apples are expected to trade in a range. The packaging and shipping in the production areas are slightly accelerating, but the overall market is stable and weak, and some fruit farmers are eager to sell [28] - Jujubes are expected to trade in a range. The acquisition price in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the acquisition is based on quality [28] Agriculture and livestock - Live pigs are expected to build a bottom in a range. In the short term, the supply and demand are both increasing, and it is recommended to short on rebounds for off - season contracts. In the long term, the capacity reduction is slow, and it is necessary to be cautious about the price increase [29][30] - Eggs are expected to rebound from a low level. The current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - holiday contracts on rallies. Considering the high probability of molting and extension of laying periods around the Spring Festival, the supply pressure will be postponed [31][32] - Corn's upward space is limited. In the short term, the market is balanced, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose in the 25/26 season, which restricts the price increase [33][34] - Soybean meal is expected to trade in a low - level range. In the short term, the M2603 contract is expected to trade in a range, and the 05 contract is expected to face pressure at 2800 - 2850. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas weather and domestic policies [35] - Oils and fats are expected to have a limited回调. In the short term, the three major oils and fats are expected to回调 but with limited amplitude. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions on rebounds and wait to buy on dips [36][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the easing of tensions in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in international crude oil prices, weakening support for vegetable oils. Coupled with profit - taking by funds after the previous sharp rise, the risk of a short - term high - level correction in domestic oils has increased. However, the strong fundamentals of soybean and palm oils remain unchanged, so the correction range is expected to be limited. It is recommended to wait for the correction and then go long. Among them, palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be relatively stronger, while rapeseed oil will be relatively weaker [1][19]. - In the long - term, after the Spring Festival, the supply - demand of domestic and international oils will gradually ease, leading to a correction in domestic oils. But with the strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and positive macro - situation, along with potential positive factors such as Indonesia's production reduction risk and the US biodiesel policy, the general direction of oils is upward. After the correction caused by the increase in Malaysian palm oil production and the large arrival of Brazilian soybeans, a bullish approach should still be taken [2][20]. 3. Summary by Variety Palm Oil - Short - term: The strong fundamentals of palm oil will last until February, and with the spill - over effect of US biodiesel policies, the correction range of spot and futures prices is limited. After the emotional decline, there is still upward momentum. However, the relatively high inventory levels in Malaysia and China will limit its further upward space. For example, in January 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased while exports increased, and the inventory is expected to decline further in February [5]. - Long - term: Starting from March, Malaysian palm oil production may rebound, while consumption demand will weaken, which may lead to a price correction. But considering the positive domestic macro - situation in 2026, low inventory and potential production reduction in Indonesia, and the possibility of implementing the B50 biodiesel plan, the correction range is expected to be limited, and a long - term bullish view is maintained [6]. Soybean Oil - Short - term: Similar to palm oil, soybean oil is supported by both domestic and foreign positive factors, and the correction is expected to be limited. Positive factors include strong US soybean demand, potential US biodiesel policies, the early - stage harvest of Brazilian soybeans in the 25/26 season, and the drought in Argentina. However, the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the risk of the US biodiesel policy falling short of expectations will limit its upward space [12]. - Long - term: After the Spring Festival, the large arrival of Brazilian soybeans and the easing of domestic soybean supply - demand will put pressure on US soybean and domestic soybean oil prices. In the third quarter, soybean oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with attention on the purchase progress of Brazilian soybeans, the sowing and growth of US new - crop soybeans, and the progress of biodiesel policies [13]. Rapeseed Oil - Short - term: Although the current spot supply - demand of domestic rapeseed oil is still tight, after the China - Canada negotiation, there is news that China has increased the purchase of Canadian rapeseed, and the first batch of Australian rapeseed has been processed. The supply - demand tension is expected to ease marginally, making its fundamentals weaker than those of soybean and palm oils. The price trend will follow the latter two, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US relations [15][16]. - Long - term: In the 25/26 season, global rapeseed production (except in Ukraine) has increased year - on - year, with general demand, showing a clear pattern of looser supply - demand. In China, due to the improvement of China - Canada and China - Australia relations, the supply - demand of rapeseed is expected to continue to ease, and the price of far - month rapeseed oil may be relatively weak [17].

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 02 月 03 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： 观望 | | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡调整 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 反弹滚动空机会 | | ◆鸡蛋： | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's hawkish expectations have increased after Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in precious metal prices. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept rates unchanged, the US employment situation has slowed, and Powell indicated that changing economic risks provide more reasons for rate cuts. After Warsh's nomination, the market still expects two rate cuts this year, but there may be a restart of balance - sheet reduction. The US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up. The platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and it is expected that the prices of platinum and palladium will have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the US January non - farm payroll data to be released on Friday [10]. - It is expected that the prices will continue to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to build positions at low levels after the prices have fully corrected [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Due to the increased hawkish expectations after the new Fed Chairman Warsh took office, the price of gold has corrected. As of last Friday, the price of US gold closed at $4,908 per ounce, a weekly decline of 1.5%. The upper resistance level is $5,060, and the lower support level is $4,750 [6]. - Due to the increased hawkish expectations after the new Fed Chairman Warsh took office, the price of silver has significantly corrected. As of last Friday, the weekly decline was 17.4%, and it closed at $85.3 per ounce. The lower support level is $78, and the upper resistance level is $90 [9]. 2. Weekly Viewpoint - Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chairman has led to increased hawkish expectations in the market, causing a correction in precious metal prices. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept rates unchanged, the US employment situation has slowed, and Powell said that changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut rates. After Warsh's nomination, the market still expects two rate cuts this year, but there may be a restart of balance - sheet reduction. The US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up. The platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and it is expected that the prices of platinum and palladium will have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the US January non - farm payroll data to be released on Friday [10]. - It is expected that the prices will continue to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to build positions at low levels after the prices have fully corrected [11]. 3. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rates (10 - year TIPS yield), US Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), inflation expectations (10Y), and the Fed's balance - sheet size and its weekly changes, as well as the WTI crude oil futures price trend [14][16][20]. 4. Important Economic Data of the Week - The US December PPI annual rate was 3%, with an expected value of 2.7% and a previous value of 3%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 24 was 209,000, with an expected value of 205,000 and a previous value of 200,000 [22]. 5. Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - US President Trump announced that he will appoint Kevin Warsh to replace Powell as the new Fed Chairman. Warsh advocates for both balance - sheet reduction and rate cuts. He is more dovish than the current Chairman Powell but more hawkish than the previous favorite candidate Hassett. Before and after Warsh's nomination, the market's expectations for Fed rate cuts have changed little. Currently, it is still expected that the next rate cut will be in June and there will be two rate cuts throughout the year, which may be due to Warsh's relatively neutral and "flexible" policy stance [23]. - Tensions in the Middle East and investors' concerns about potential supply disruptions have boosted oil prices. US President Trump has reiterated threats against Iran [23]. 6. Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 12,307.14 kilograms to 1,111,906.47 kilograms, and the SHFE gold inventory increased by 1,020 kilograms to 103,029 kilograms. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 327,770.44 kilograms to 12,624,500.29 kilograms, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 126,022 kilograms to 455,068 kilograms [12][27]. 7. Fund Holdings - As of January 27, the net long position of the gold CFTC speculative fund was 206,435 contracts, a decrease of 17,493 contracts from last week. The net long position of the silver CFTC speculative fund was 23,999 contracts, a decrease of 616 contracts from last week [12][32]. 8. Key Points to Watch This Week - On Monday, February 2, at 23:00, the US January ISM manufacturing PMI will be released. - On Wednesday, February 4, at 21:15, the US January ADP employment change will be released. - On Friday, February 6, at 21:30, the US January non - farm payroll change (seasonally adjusted) and the US January unemployment rate will be released [34].

长江期货聚烯烃月报 01 核心观点总结 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员： 张 英 执业编号:F03105021 投资咨询号:Z0021335 2026-02-02 聚烯烃：估值短暂修复，逢高沽空为主 01 资料来源：iFIND，隆众资讯，长江期货 1 市场变化：1月30日塑料主力合约收盘价7014元/吨，月环比+8.37%。LDPE均价为9066.67元/吨，月环比+7.94%，HDPE均 价为7337.50元/吨，环比+6.92%，华南地区LLDPE（7042）均价为7213.89元/吨，环比+10.67%。LLDPE华南基差收于 199.89元/吨，环比331.41%，5-9月差-55元/吨（-33）。聚丙烯主力合约收盘价6824元/吨，较上月末+476元/吨，环比 +7.50%。生意社聚丙烯现货价报收6720元/吨（+2.13%）。PP基差收-104元/吨（-28），5-9月差-33元/吨（-1）。 2 基本面变化：1、供应端：本周中国聚乙烯生产开工率85.35%，较上周+0.68个百分点，聚乙烯周度产量70.60万吨，环 ...

长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2026-2-2 长江期货养殖产业月报 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 生猪：供需双增，期价低位震荡 目 02 鸡蛋：供应压力仍存，盘面偏弱运行 录 03 玉米：供需相对平衡，盘面震荡运行 01 生猪：供需双增，期价低位震荡 01 生猪：供需双增，期价低位震荡 u 期现货：截至1月30日，全国生猪价格12.21元/公斤，较上月底下跌0.46元/公斤；河南生猪均价12.46元/公斤，较上月底下跌0.72元/公斤，03期货价格收于11220元/吨，较上月 底下跌575元/吨，跌幅4.87%；03合约基差1240元/吨，较上月底跌145元/吨。1月猪价先涨后跌，月均价重心抬升，因12月出栏超预期，1月中上旬企业出栏节奏偏慢，二育进 场和养殖端惜售，叠加中旬降温降雪天气，支撑价格上涨；下旬企业出栏节奏恢复，而春节备货尚早，终端需求不及预期，屠宰量下滑，猪价高位回落。期货主力03在宏观情绪 扰动下，跟随现货先扬后抑，03贴水收窄，基差走弱。 u 供应端：9月官方能 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For the stock index, due to Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, Warsh's relatively hawkish policy stance led to a sharp rise in the US dollar last Friday, and gold and silver were heavily sold. The US Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill, but a brief government shutdown is inevitable. Trump said that the US and Iran are in negotiations, and an advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader said that a "negotiation framework" is taking shape. Trump also said that negotiations on Greenland are about to reach an agreement. China's official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4. With the rebound of overseas precious metals and the PMI below the boom - bust line, the stock index may fluctuate. The MACD indicator shows that the market index may fluctuate, and the strategy outlook is for range - bound movement [11]. - For government bonds, with the publication of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important article in Qiushi Journal, currently there is no obvious major negative for the bond market, and it is generally oscillating on the upside. However, there is no further impetus to push interest rates down. After the repair since the beginning of the year, allocation funds may have established many positions. At the current position, if more allocation funds cannot be attracted, the downward space for bond yields may be quite limited, and the bond market may move sideways in a relatively narrow range, waiting for the emergence of the next - stage main theme. The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate, and the strategy outlook is for oscillating movement [12]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - Stock index trend review: A - shares fluctuated and diverged throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index once falling below 4100 points and closing down nearly 1% [11]. - Core view: As mentioned above, the stock index may fluctuate [11]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the market index may fluctuate [11]. - Strategy outlook: Range - bound movement [11]. Government Bond Strategy Suggestions - Government bond trend review: The 30 - year main contract fell 0.23%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.06%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.01%, and the 2 - year main contract remained flat [12]. - Core view: As mentioned above, the bond market may oscillate [12]. - Technical analysis: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate [12]. - Strategy outlook: Oscillating movement [12]. Key Data Tracking PMI - On January 31, 2026, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the manufacturing PMI in January dropped to 49.3%. Compared with December last year, it dropped significantly, but it was basically the same as in November last year. The production recovered, mainly due to the warming - up of upstream industry starts, and export orders strengthened slightly, which may continuously drive high - tech manufacturing. However, there is no clear improvement in demand to support the production recovery, and inventory has a continuous accumulation trend. Rising international bulk prices may continue to affect the profitability of industrial enterprises [18]. CPI - Seasonal factors and the low - base effect are expected to push up the CPI. Four factors will push up the year - on - year central level of CPI in 2026: low base, the narrowing decline of pork prices, the impact of gold prices, and the expansion of service consumption [21]. Import and Export - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of exports unexpectedly rebounded to 6.6%, much higher than the Reuters' consensus expectation of 3%. In the month - on - month dimension, it increased by 8.3%, higher than the average of the past ten years (5.9%); the two - year compound growth rate also rebounded to 8.6% (previous value 6.3%). The unexpected growth of exports throughout the year was mainly due to two cognitive biases in the market: overestimating the impact of trade frictions and underestimating the upward power of the global manufacturing cycle. Among major trading partners, Africa's contribution to exports in 2025 was second only to ASEAN. The cycle of "Belt and Road investment driving foreign trade" may continue in 2026 [24]. Large - scale Industrial Enterprises - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits continued to be negative, and the decline widened to - 13.1%, reaching the weakest level since September 2024. The year - on - year growth rate of revenue in November rebounded to - 0.3%. From the breakdown of volume, price, and profit margin, the price factor was basically flat, the volume growth showed a good rebound, and the decline in profit growth was mainly due to the significant decline in the profit margin [28]. Fixed - Asset Investment - In 2025, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 3.8%, significantly lower than in 2024 and turning from positive to negative. It is estimated that the growth rate in December was - 16.0%, and the decline continued to widen. In terms of types, in December, the growth rate of private investment was - 17.2%, and the growth rate of public investment was - 14.3%, with both declines widening. In terms of composition, in December, the growth rate of construction and installation projects dropped to - 28.0%, while the growth rates of equipment and tool purchases and other expenses rebounded to 8.7% and 0.3% respectively, which were among the few sub - items with a rebound in growth rate in fixed - asset investment [31]. Social Retail - In 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail, social retail excluding automobiles, and above - quota retail were 3.7%, 4.4%, and 3.3% respectively, all slightly higher than in 2024. In December, the monthly growth rate of social retail dropped to 0.9%, while the decline of above - quota retail narrowed to - 1.9%. The differentiation was mainly due to two reasons: weak consumption across channels, especially the slowdown in the growth rates of offline catering, offline and online retail in December, and the weakening drag of durable goods [34]. Social Financing - Under the suppression of government bonds, the growth rate of social financing continued to decline. In 2025, the growth rate of social financing was basically dominated by government bonds. In August 2025, government bonds decreased year - on - year, and the growth rate of social financing also declined. In December, medium - and long - term loans to enterprises increased year - on - year, which may be related to the coordinated efforts of policy - based financial instruments. On January 15, the central bank introduced a series of policy combinations at a press conference, mainly focusing on structural tools, implementing structural interest rate cuts, and lowering the interest rates of re - loans, rediscounts, and PSL by 0.25 percentage points [37].

供应紧缺支撑铜价，宏观情绪放大波动 2月铜月报 2026-2-2 01 行情回顾 02 宏观因素分析 03 基本面分析 目 录 04 后市展望 01 行情回顾 01 沪铜行情回顾 位。智利Mantoverde铜矿因谈判无果将持续罢工，南方铜业（Southern Copper）预计未来两年产量因矿石品位下降而下滑。美国总统特朗普表示，暂不 考虑对关键矿产包括铜加征关税，LME-COMEX套利空间随即收窄。铜价高位国内下游开工承压，国内库存连续累库。随着美元指数走强，叠加资金止盈 情绪升温，有色金属及贵金属价格回调。长期新能源、电力及AI算力需求支撑仍存，基本面支撑较强，但凯文·沃什被提名下届美联储主席下美联储货币政 策不确定性强，预计铜价宽幅震荡运行。 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 110000 120000 26-01-30 26-01-26 26-01-20 26-01-14 26-01-08 25-12-31 25-12-25 25-12-19 25-12-15 25-12-09 25-12-03 25-11-27 25-11-21 25-11-17 25-11-11 25 ...

长江期货粕类油脂月报 2026-02-02 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 豆粕：利多驱动匮乏，豆粕区间运行 02 油脂：宏观及资金离场扰动，高位波 动加剧 01 01 豆粕：利多驱动匮乏，豆粕区间运行 资料来源：同花顺 USDA 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止1月30日，华东现货报价3060元/吨，月度报价上涨10元/吨；M2605合约收盘至2762元/吨，月度下跌5元/吨；基差报价05+300元 /吨，基差报价上涨20元/吨。月度美豆围绕区间【1030，1100】美分区间波动为主，生柴及成本支撑美豆底部，但销售压力及供需宽松限制美 豆上方空间，区间震荡为主；豆粕05合约围绕【2700，2800】区间波动，进口成本支撑下方价格，但4月后国内到港宽松以及巴西大豆进口成 本下降，限制涨幅，跟随美豆区间波动为主。 ◆ 供应端：月度美豆单产维持53蒲/英亩，但需求不足下美豆库销比上移；巴西进入收割阶段，丰产预期较强，但巴西南部及阿根廷面临阶段性高 温干 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Ratings for Different Industries - Macro - finance: Index futures are promising in the medium - to - long - term, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [1][5]. - Black building materials: Coking coal for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass recommended to buy on dips [1][8]. - Non - ferrous metals: Copper, aluminum, and nickel for observation; tin, gold, and silver for range trading; lithium carbonate for range - bound fluctuations [1][10][12][14]. - Energy and chemicals: PVC for range trading; caustic soda for temporary observation; soda ash for temporary observation; styrene for range trading; rubber for range trading; urea for range trading; methanol for range trading; polyolefins for weak - range fluctuations [1][17][19][20]. - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn for shock adjustment; apples and jujubes for shock operation [1][26]. - Agricultural and livestock: Pigs for rebound - based short - selling opportunities; eggs for hedging post - festival contracts on rallies; corn for cautious chasing of highs and hedging on rebounds; soybean meal for shorting on rallies; oils for strong - range fluctuations [1][29][30][31][32][33][34][35]. 2. Core Views - The overall market is affected by a variety of factors such as geopolitical situations, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships. Different industries and products show different trends and characteristics. For some products, there are potential investment opportunities, while for others, risks need to be carefully considered. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, the prices of copper and aluminum are affected by geopolitical and supply - demand factors, and investors are advised to observe; in the energy and chemicals sector, PVC may have long - term low - buying opportunities, while caustic soda is under pressure in the short - term [10][12][17][19]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Index futures: Affected by factors such as Trump's nomination of the Fed chairman and China's PMI data, they are expected to move in a range in the short - term and are promising in the medium - to - long - term, recommended to buy on dips [5]. - Treasury bonds: With no obvious major negative factors in the bond market, they are expected to move in a range, but the downward space of bond yields is limited [5]. Black building materials - Coking coal: The coal market shows short - term fluctuations. Although the price has increased slightly, the sustainability of the price increase is insufficient, recommended for short - term trading [8]. - Rebar: The futures price is slightly higher than the valley - electricity cost of the electric furnace and lower than the flat - electricity cost. With low inventory and small supply - demand contradictions, it is expected to move in a range [8]. - Glass: Although there are negative factors such as inventory, demand, and holidays, the futures price is at a relatively low level, recommended to buy on dips, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on glass and short on soda ash [9]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Affected by geopolitical and Fed chairman nomination factors, the price has fluctuated sharply. With tight supply and weakening demand, it is expected to move in a wide range, and investors are advised to control positions and pay attention to inventory changes [10]. - Aluminum: With the pressure on bauxite prices and the increase in alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and the approaching of the demand off - season, it is expected to adjust at a high level, and investors are advised to strengthen observation [12]. - Nickel: Affected by the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas, the price has risen, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to observe [14]. - Tin: With the supply of tin concentrate being tight and the downstream consumption maintaining rigid demand, it is expected to continue to fluctuate, recommended for range trading [15]. - Gold and silver: Affected by the nomination of the Fed chairman, the prices have corrected, but the medium - term price centers are expected to move up, and they are expected to continue to adjust in a range [16]. - Lithium carbonate: Affected by factors such as supply and demand and mine risks, it is expected to continue to fluctuate in a range [17]. Energy and chemicals - PVC: With weak domestic demand and high inventory, but low valuation, it is possible that the bottom has been reached. It is recommended to have a long - term low - buying idea, pay attention to policies such as export tax rebates and cost fluctuations [17]. - Caustic soda: With weak demand and high supply, there is short - term delivery pressure, and it is recommended to observe temporarily [19]. - Styrene: Although it has rebounded due to factors such as export increase and device maintenance, the valuation is high, recommended to be cautious about chasing highs, and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [20]. - Rubber: Affected by seasonal supply reduction and weak demand support, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and there is a possibility of further decline [21]. - Urea: With sufficient supply and increasing demand for compound fertilizers, the price is expected to move in a range, and attention should be paid to factors such as compound fertilizer start - up and urea device maintenance [22]. - Methanol: With the reduction of domestic supply and weak downstream demand, the price in the inland market is relatively weak, while the price in some regions is relatively strong due to geopolitical and port arrival factors [23]. - Polyolefins: With increasing supply, decreasing demand in the off - season, and inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to short on rallies [24]. - Soda ash: With supply over - capacity and rising production costs, the price may have limited downward space, and it is recommended to observe temporarily [25]. Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Affected by the global cotton supply - demand forecast report, the price has adjusted after a high - level shock, and it is recommended to be cautious in the short - term and optimistic in the long - term [26]. - Apples and jujubes: The market is generally stable with weak trends, and the price is expected to move in a shock [26][29]. Agricultural and livestock - Pigs: In the short - term, the price is restricted by supply - demand game, recommended to short on rebounds for off - season contracts; in the medium - to - long - term, the price is cautiously bullish, and the industry can hedge on rallies before effective capacity reduction [29][30]. - Eggs: With low basis and high valuation, it is recommended to hedge post - festival contracts on rallies, especially the 05 and 06 contracts considering the supply pressure shift [31]. - Corn: In the short - term, the price is supported by supply - demand balance; in the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and hedge on rebounds [32][33][34]. - Soybean meal: In the short - term, the M2603 contract is expected to move in a range; the 05 contract is under pressure, and attention should be paid to support and resistance levels [34]. - Oils: In the short - term, the three major oils are expected to correct but with limited amplitude, recommended to take rolling profit on previous long positions and wait to go long on dips [35][40][41].