上周港股股指期货价格延续回落趋势，至周末 25 年 4 月份恒指期货价格变 化-1.01%，科技指数期货涨幅-2.19%；当周恒指期货持仓变化 3.21%，基差 3.40 点；科技指数持仓量变化 7.73%；基差-16.47 点。美股股指期货方面， 上周三大股指期货价格下跌，至周末时道指期货价格变化-1.11%，标指和 纳指 100 期货价格变化分别为-1.67%和-2.52%。当周道指期货持仓变化- 1.44%，纳指期货持仓变化 4.15%；三大股指的期货中道指期货基差为 130.10 点较前周变化-214.55 点，纳指 100 期货基差 79.60 点，较前周变化 -137.18 点。 ➢ 市场外部环境： | 周报 | 港股调整，海外扰动或影响本周港股表现 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指期货 | 星期一 | 2025-04-01 | ➢ 市场回顾： 国内主要城市住房销售情况跟踪：上周二手房销售同比回升。 央行最新动向：美联储对降息的最新表态偏向谨慎，日本央行或继续加息。 部分国内外重要新闻：美国方面公布最新 PCE 和密歇根大学经济预测，特 朗普或在 4 月 2 日起加征关税 ...

2025 年 3 月 28 日星期五 【近期研报】 ➢ 康臣药业（1681.HK）即时点评：深耕肾病领域，业绩持续快速增长 CKD 方面，公司通过尿毒清和益肾化湿颗粒两大核心产品实现销售收入 19.96 亿元，较 23 年的 17.41 亿元人民币，同比增长 14.6%，其中益肾化湿颗粒销售收入同比增长 27.2%。公司在双核 产品驱动下抓住市场机遇，成功覆盖 4.3 万家终端医疗机构和 29 万家药店。妇儿产品收入同比 增长 23.1%，终端医疗机构覆盖超 2 万家，药店覆盖超 16 万家。玉林制药实现收入 4.43 亿 元，同比增长 12.1%，未来将通过深度优化品牌化+专业化，推动业绩增长。影像方面，实现了 9%的增长，摆脱了之前因受未能参与国家带量采购影响，覆盖超过 3500 家终端医疗机构。 如需浏览报告全文，请联系您的客户经理。 ➢ 宜明昂科-B（1541.HK）即时点评：CD47 研发全球领先，肿瘤及自免应用前景 广阔 1 请务必阅读免责条款 证 券 研 核心产品 IMM01 是创新靶向 CD47 的分子。是全球唯二的两家在单药治疗临床试验中观察到完 全缓解并具有良好耐受性、安全性的公司之一。该 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the company, indicating a strong growth potential driven by its product mix and market strategies [1][3][6] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 2.241 billion, a year-on-year increase of 155.6%, and an adjusted annual profit of RMB 585 million, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 702.1% [1] - The sales revenue from building block toys decreased by 62.9%, indicating a strategic shift towards building character toys, which generated sales of RMB 2.201 billion [1][3] - The company has invested RMB 192 million in R&D, accounting for 8.6% of total revenue, highlighting its commitment to product innovation [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 52.6%, showcasing enhanced supply chain efficiency and product structure optimization [3] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The revenue growth is primarily attributed to product mix optimization and channel penetration strategies, effectively reaching consumers across various demographics and price ranges [3][4] - The company plans to introduce 800-1000 new SKUs and over 300 new products in 2025, further enhancing its product offerings [4] Market Expansion - The company is expanding its IP matrix, currently holding nearly 50 licensed IPs and planning to add over 25 more, including popular franchises like Star Wars and Pokémon [4][5] - Domestic market penetration is supported by over 450 distributors, while international expansion is achieved through brand partnerships and localization strategies, with overseas sales revenue increasing by 518.2% [1][4] Future Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on developing female-oriented products to address specific market needs, including ease of assembly and aesthetic appeal [5] - Forecasts indicate net profits of RMB 941 million, RMB 1.381 billion, and RMB 1.991 billion for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30x, 20x, and 14x, reflecting strong market confidence in sustained profitability [6]

2025 年 3 月 27 日星期四 【债券快讯】 【市场综述】 昨日港股各种重要指数全部上涨。截至 3 月 26 日，恒生指数上涨 0.6%，报收 23483.32 点。其 中大型股、中型股和小型股的涨跌幅分别为 0.66%、1.08%和 0.35%；与此同时，中资企业指数 和科技指数的涨跌幅度分别达到 0.07%和 1.01%。从行业来看，多数行业出现上涨：其中非必需 性消费和资讯科技业表现相对较好，涨跌幅分别为 1.5%和 1%；公用事业和必需性消费市场走势 较弱，涨跌幅分别为-0.53%和-1.09%。内地股市方面，截至 3 月 26 日，上证指数收盘价为 3368.7 点，下跌 0.04%；深证综指收盘价为 2046.12 点，上涨 0.39%。陆港股通方面，截至 3 月 26 日，当日陆股通交易暂停;当日沪市港股通南下资金净流入 47.5 亿元，深市港股通南下净 流入为 30.79 亿元，共计港股通资金净流入 78.29 亿元。 美国三大股指集体下跌：截至 3 月 26 日，道琼斯工业指数报收 42454.79 点，较前一个交易日 下跌 0.31%；标普 500 指数报收 5712.2 点，较前一 ...

2025 年 3 月 26 日星期三 【债券快讯】 【市场综述】 昨日港股各种重要指数全部下跌。截至 3 月 25 日，恒生指数下跌 2.35%，报收 23344.25 点。 其中大型股、中型股和小型股的涨跌幅分别为-2.36%、-2.17%和-1.7%；与此同时，中资企业指 数和科技指数的涨跌幅度分别达到-1.46%和-3.82%。从行业来看，多数行业出现下跌：其中恒 生综合行业指数-原材料业和恒生综合行业指数-能源业表现相对较好，涨跌幅分别为 0.25%和- 0.34%；资讯科技业和非必需性消费市场走势较弱，涨跌幅分别为-3.31%和-3.46%。内地股市 方面，截至 3 月 25 日，上证指数收盘价为 3369.98 点，下跌 0%；深证综指收盘价为 2038.17 点，下跌 0.57%。陆港股通方面，截至 3 月 25 日，当日陆股通交易暂停;当日沪市港股通南下资 金净流入 79.32 亿元，深市港股通南下净流入为 50.67 亿元，共计港股通资金净流入 129.99 亿 元。 美国三大股指集体收涨：截至 3 月 25 日，道琼斯工业指数报收 42587.5 点，较前一个交易日上 涨 0.01%；标普 ...

2025 年 3 月 25 日星期二 请务必阅读免责条款 ➢ 华润啤酒（291.HK）更新报告：坚定落实三精主义，高端化发展持续推进 在国家政策支持、消费场景恢复、厂商库存管理优化以及 "三精" 战略的推动下，预期公司经营 业绩和盈利能力有望获得持续改善。预期 25-27 年公司 EPS 分别为 1.64/1.79/1.96 元，公司多 年来在战略的制定上具备前瞻性及较高的执行力，看好龙头公司优秀的组织管理能力，同时考虑 到市场流动性改善，给予 35.0 港元/股目标价，对应 2025 年 20 倍 PE。 如需浏览报告全文，请联系您的客户经理。 ➢ 港股小幅震荡，短期内或继续消化估值-股指期货周报（3.17-3.21） 上周港股延续震荡调整，最终恒指一周小幅走弱 1.13%，成交量有所收缩但继续保持相对高位水 平。从消息面上来说，上周美联储储宣布维持利率不变，从同时公布的点阵图看，美联储公开市 场委员会的成员对经济政策的分歧在加大，最终结果是美联储强调当前环境的不确定性，仍然维 持了较浓的观望姿态，总体来看这次的利率政策符合市场预期。虽然外部环境并未出现较大扰 动，但可以看到短期内港股正在市场正在调整之前的 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable investment rating for Longfa Group with a BBB rating from Fitch and a Baa2 rating from Moody's [3]. Core Insights - The offshore bond issuance in the primary market has decreased, with only 12 bonds issued last week totaling approximately 2.62 billion USD, primarily from the urban investment sector [1]. - The high-yield bonds outperformed investment-grade bonds in the secondary market, with the Markit iBoxx index for Chinese USD bonds rising by 0.05% last week [1]. Summary by Sections Primary Market - Last week, the primary market saw a total of 12 bonds issued, amounting to around 2.62 billion USD, with a significant issuance from the urban investment sector [1]. - Notably, the Shouhua Group issued a bond worth 450 million USD with a coupon rate of 7.15%, which was oversubscribed by more than 10 times [1]. Secondary Market - The secondary market showed a slight increase in returns, with the investment-grade return index rising by 0.04% and the high-yield return index increasing by 0.08% [1]. Market Overview - As of March 18, the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.46%, with all major sectors showing positive performance, particularly non-essential consumer goods and materials [5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3429.76 points, up by 0.11%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 0.49% to 2122.66 points [5].

Group 1 - The investment rating for the Hong Kong technology sector is currently positive, with a notable increase in the Hang Seng Index by 7.04% over the past week, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [1] - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that the recent surge in Hong Kong technology stocks is driven by market sentiment, with significant valuation increases for related stocks. However, the report cautions that the degree of future positive expectations being met will be crucial for sustaining this momentum [1] - The report emphasizes that despite uncertainties in the global environment, the Hong Kong market still has strong support from recent developments, such as the introduction of the AI model deepseek, which has significantly boosted investor confidence [1] Group 2 - In the offshore bond market, there has been a rebound in primary market issuances, with 11 new bonds issued totaling $1.56 billion, primarily in the urban investment sector. Notably, Greentown China issued a $350 million bond with a coupon rate of 8.45%, which was the largest single issuance of the week [2] - The secondary market performance shows that high-yield bonds outperformed investment-grade bonds, with the Markit iBoxx index for high-yield bonds rising by 0.85% while the investment-grade index increased by 0.25% [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the maternal and infant industry, particularly due to the implementation of new parenting subsidy policies which are expected to boost infant-related stocks [1]. Core Insights - The maternal and infant market has faced challenges due to declining birth rates and weak consumer spending, with the sales of infant formula experiencing a 13.9% decline in 2023 [1]. - A rise in birth rates in the current year is anticipated to drive consumption in the following years, suggesting a potential recovery in the maternal and infant market [1]. - Various policies aimed at enhancing birth willingness are expected to further stimulate consumer demand in the maternal and infant sector [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The maternal and infant market has been negatively impacted by a continuous decline in birth rates and sluggish consumption [1]. - The infant formula market has seen a significant contraction, with a reported 13.9% decrease in sales across all channels in 2023 [1]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts a potential recovery in the maternal and infant market in the coming years, driven by an increase in birth rates and supportive government policies [1]. - The implementation of new policies aimed at increasing birth rates is expected to create a more favorable environment for consumer spending in the maternal and infant sector [1].

即时点评 育儿补贴新政落地，婴童概念股获提振 2025-03-14 星期五 事件： 2013-2023 年的十年间，中国人口出生率从 13.03‰下降至 6.39‰；2024 年全国出生人口 954 万人，比 2023 年增加 52 万人，是自 2017 年以 来首次回升。据尼尔森，"龙、蛇、马"在中国传统文化中是备受偏 爱的三大生肖，在出生人口中排前三位。预期生肖偏好叠加呼和浩特 市大力度的育儿补贴政策所起到的示范作用，未来几年新生儿出生数 量将较为乐观。 守得云开见月明，关注母婴市场消费回暖： 证 报 告 研究部 近年来，母婴市场由于生育率持续下滑，消费疲软。如婴配粉市场规 模持续萎缩，据尼尔森，2023 年婴配粉全渠道销售额下滑 13.9%。从 母婴消费周期看，当年的出生率上升，会为第二年甚至第三年的消费 带来驱动，预期未来几年母婴市场消费将会回暖，多地根源性提升生 育意愿的相关政策落地，有望进一步激发母婴市场的消费需求。建议 关注婴配粉相关标的中国飞鹤（6186.HK）、H&H 国际（1112.HK）、 蒙牛乳业（2319.HK）；纸尿裤生产商恒安国际（1044.HK）、婴儿 车/汽车安全座椅生产商好 ...