Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Last week, the primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds rebounded, with 5 new bonds issued, totaling approximately $1.82 billion. In the secondary market, high-yield bonds outperformed investment-grade bonds. The long- and short-term US Treasury yields showed different performances. [1][3] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and multiple institutions adjusted their economic forecasts. The Chinese economy showed resilience, and the automotive and real estate markets had specific trends. [4][36][51] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market - Last week, the primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds rebounded, with 5 new bonds issued, totaling approximately $1.82 billion (converted to US dollars at the exchange rate on the pricing start date). China Minmetals issued two subordinated perpetual capital securities totaling $1.2 billion, with a final subscription over 3 times. Kaifeng Cultural Tourism Investment issued a senior unsecured bond worth 740 million RMB with a coupon rate of 5.5%, which was the highest-priced new bond last week. [1][5][10] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Chinese US Dollar Bond Index Performance - The Chinese US dollar bond index (Bloomberg Barclays) rose 0.04% week-on-week, while the emerging market US dollar bond index fell 0.04%. The investment-grade index closed at 202.0918, down 0.03% week-on-week, and the high-yield index closed at 159.9398, up 0.54% week-on-week. [3][7] - The Chinese US dollar bond return index (Markit iBoxx) rose 0.03% week-on-week. The investment-grade return index closed at 243.6432, down 0.03% week-on-week, and the high-yield return index closed at 241.5032, up 0.58% week-on-week. [13] 2.2 Chinese US Dollar Bond Industry Performance - Different industries had different yield performances. The government and materials sectors led the gains, while the real estate and consumer staples sectors led the losses. [17][20] 2.3 Chinese US Dollar Bond Different Rating Performance - Among investment-grade names, the weekly yield of A-rated names decreased by 1.5 bps, and that of BBB-rated names increased by 0.4 bps. Among high-yield names, most declined, with the yield of BB-rated names decreasing by 2.0 bps, and that of DD+ to NR-rated names increasing by about 4.2 bps. The yield of unrated names increased by 4.0 Mbps. [19] 2.4 Last Week's Bond Market Hot Events - Several companies had debt-related issues, including Fanhai Holdings, Greenland Holdings, and CIFI Group. [23][24][25] 2.5 Last Week's Subject Rating Adjustments - Ratings of several companies were adjusted, including Western Cement, Beijing Construction Engineering, FWD Group, and others. [28][29] 3. US Treasury Bond Quotes - The table shows the quotes of US Treasury bonds with maturities over 6 months, sorted by yield to maturity from high to low, taking the top 30. [30][31][32] 4. Macroeconomic Data Tracking - As of December 12, the yields of US Treasury bonds were as follows: 1-year (T1) was 3.5158%, down 7.37 bps from last week; 2-year (T2) was 3.5222%, down 3.81 bps; 5-year (T5) was 3.7417%, up 3.04 bps; 10-year (T10) was 4.1841%, up 4.9 bps. [35] 5. Macroeconomic News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, adjusted GDP forecasts, and multiple economic data from the US, Japan, and other countries were released. China's economic data was positive, and the real estate and automotive markets had specific trends. [36][43][50]

2025 年 12 月 16 日星期二 证 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 券 研 究 报 告 美联储内部降息分歧加剧，通胀前景预期分化 纳斯达克申请 5X23 小时交易 日本央行或迎 30 年最猛加息，政策利率将冲 0.75% 高市早苗：目前拟将个税起征点定为 168 万日元 11 月国民经济稳中有进，工业、进出口等多项指标向好 11 月 70 城房价环比总体下降，一线城市二手房降幅扩大 中指院：房地产进入存量主导阶段二手房成成交主力 英伟达发布新版开源 AI 模型 宣称"更快、更便宜、更智能" 特斯拉启动无安全员 Robotaxi 路测 复星医药 14.12 亿控股绿谷医药，拿下阿尔茨海默病创新药 2 年期美债收益率跌 1.86 个基点报 3.504% 5 年期美债收益率跌 1.39 个基点报 3.724% 10 年期美债收益率跌 0.78 个基点报 4.174% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious subscription for the company Nobikang (2635.HK) [1][3] Core Insights - Nobikang focuses on the industrial application of advanced technologies such as AI and digital twins in sectors like transportation, energy, and urban governance, providing integrated hardware and software solutions based on comprehensive AI industry models [2] - The company has three business lines targeting vertical industries: transportation solutions, energy solutions, and urban governance solutions, with significant revenue generated from its rail transportation and energy solution businesses [2] - China has become the second-largest AI market globally, with spending expected to reach USD 18.1 billion in 2024 and soar to USD 47 billion by 2029, highlighting the country's growing influence in shaping the global AI landscape [2] Summary by Sections IPO Details - The IPO price range is set between HKD 80.0 and HKD 106.0, with a total fundraising amount of approximately HKD 306 million [1] - The total number of shares offered is 3.79 million, with 90% allocated for international placement and 10% for public offering [1] Financial Performance - For the six months ending June 30, 2025, Nobikang reported revenue of approximately RMB 232 million, a year-on-year increase of about 24.7%, while net profit was approximately RMB 40.08 million, a decrease of about 21.0% [3] - The estimated market capitalization post-IPO is around HKD 3.5 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of approximately 28.0X based on 2024 revenue, indicating a high valuation [3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious subscription for the company [1] Core Insights - The company ranks 10th in China's digital integrated health services and health insurance market based on revenue for 2024, according to a report by Sullivan [2] - The integrated health services and health insurance market in China is projected to grow from RMB 6,226.1 billion in 2020 to RMB 8,149.4 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.0%, and is expected to reach RMB 11,804.0 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 7.7% from 2024 to 2029 [2] - The company provides a comprehensive platform for health services and insurance funding resources, catering to users' overall health needs [2] Financial Performance - The company's revenue from continuing operations for the past years is as follows: RMB 394 million in 2023, RMB 490 million in 2024, RMB 945 million in the first nine months of 2025, and RMB 656 million in the same period [3] - The corresponding net profits were RMB -9.098 million, RMB 97.169 million, RMB 8.99 million, and RMB 86.045 million [3] - The estimated market capitalization post-IPO is approximately HKD 4.7 billion, with the IPO price corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of about 40.0X for 2025, indicating a high valuation [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights the signing of an agreement among the US and eight countries, including Japan and Australia, to strengthen the rare earth supply chain [4] - It notes that China's new social financing in November reached 2.49 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans amounting to 390 billion yuan [4] - The report mentions that the UK experienced an unexpected contraction in GDP in October [4] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 2205.00, down 3.88% [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 23195.17, down 1.69%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 48458.05, down 0.51% [5] - The ICE Brent crude oil price was reported at 61.22, down 0.10% [5] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed at 25976.79, up 1.75% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889.35, up 0.41% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME.N) with a target price of $21.84, indicating a potential upside of 20.0% from the current price of $18.20 [1][5]. Core Insights - Tencent Music's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 84.6 billion RMB, driven by strong performance in online music services, which saw a year-on-year growth of 27.2%, accounting for 82.4% of total revenue [3][8]. - The company is focusing on building new business models around fan economy, with non-subscription revenue showing accelerated growth, primarily from advertising services, offline performances, and artist-related merchandise sales [3][5]. - The penetration rate of the SVIP membership program has increased, leading to a 17.2% year-on-year growth in subscription revenue, reaching 45.0 billion RMB [4][9]. - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance its content creation, distribution, and commercialization processes, aiming to solidify its leadership in the online music market [10][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 27,752 million RMB in 2023 to 40,215 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.8% [6][15]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from 4,920 million RMB in 2023 to 11,198 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [6][15]. - The adjusted net profit margin is forecasted to improve from 18.81% in 2023 to 29.79% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [6][15]. Market Position and Valuation - The report highlights Tencent Music's strategic shift from user scale expansion to deepening user value extraction, supported by technological innovations and product iterations [10][12]. - The valuation is based on an 8x price-to-sales (PS) ratio for online music business and a 5x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for social entertainment business, justifying the target price of $21.84 [5][12].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious subscription for the company, Xidi Zhijia (3881.HK) [4] Core Insights - The company is a supplier of intelligent driving products and solutions for commercial vehicles in China, focusing on autonomous trucks for mining and logistics in closed environments, V2X technology, and intelligent perception solutions. It ranks sixth among all intelligent driving commercial vehicle companies in China, with a market share of approximately 5.2% [2] - The global market for intelligent driving commercial vehicles is projected to reach RMB 100 billion by 2024 and significantly increase to RMB 16,144 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 133.3% from 2024 to 2030. The closed environment segment is expected to reach RMB 51 billion in 2024, with China accounting for RMB 26 billion, representing 50.8% and 53.8% of the global market, respectively [3] - The company's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is projected to be RMB 31.06 million, RMB 132.6 million, and RMB 410.04 million, respectively, with net losses of RMB -263 million, RMB -255.08 million, and RMB -580.71 million [3] Summary by Sections IPO Details - The company plans to raise HKD 1.309 billion through its IPO, with a share price of HKD 263 and a total of 5,407,980 shares available for subscription [1] Market Position - The company is positioned as a key player in the intelligent driving market, particularly in closed environments, and is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of the sector [4]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious subscription for the company [1] Core Insights - The company focuses on zinc, lead, and copper mining in Tibet, China, ranking fifth in zinc, fourth in lead, and fifth in copper production in 2024 [2] - Domestic demand for zinc, lead, and copper is expected to maintain growth, with zinc demand projected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.2% from 2025 to 2028, and copper demand expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 2.8% during the same period [3] - The company's total revenue for the years ending December 31 for 2022, 2023, and 2024 was approximately RMB 482.4 million, RMB 546.1 million, and RMB 301.4 million, respectively, with net profits showing fluctuations [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the overall upcycle in the non-ferrous metals industry, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of HKD 0.20 for 2025 based on annualized calculations [6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in the exploration, mining, and production of zinc, lead, and copper in Tibet, with significant mineral reserves [2] Market Demand - Zinc demand in China is driven by infrastructure and galvanizing industries, while lead demand is expected to recover due to the instability of recycled lead supply [3] Financial Performance - The company's gross profit margins have varied, with gross profit for 2022, 2023, and 2024 being approximately RMB 174.6 million, RMB 217.7 million, and RMB 104.5 million, respectively [5] Growth Potential - The company is positioned to see rapid revenue growth due to increasing demand from downstream industries, with a projected PE ratio of approximately 20.47X based on the lower end of the IPO price range [6]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the company, indicating that the same-store sales decline is expected to reverse by the end of the year [1][4]. Core Insights - The same-store sales decline for the company's brands, particularly for the "Tai Er" brand, has been narrowing, showing signs of improvement due to operational adjustments [2][3]. - The "5.0 Fresh Model" for the "Tai Er" brand is being implemented, with significant changes in menu offerings and service, which are anticipated to enhance customer experience and increase average spending [3]. - The company has already modified 106 "Tai Er" stores to the new model and plans to exceed 200 by the end of 2025, which is expected to contribute to positive same-store sales growth [3]. Summary by Sections Same-Store Sales Performance - In Q3 2025, the same-store average daily sales for "Tai Er," "Song Hot Pot," and "Jiu Mao Jiu" showed declines of -9.3%, -19.1%, and -14.8% respectively, which is an improvement from Q2's declines of -13.7%, -14.3%, and -18.5% [2]. - The turnover rates for "Tai Er," "Song Hot Pot," and "Jiu Mao Jiu" were 3.3, 2.4, and 2.5 respectively, showing an increase from Q2 [2]. Operational Adjustments - The new model includes menu enhancements with the introduction of fresh beef and chicken dishes, which are expected to boost customer choices and average spending [3]. - Staffing adjustments have been made to accommodate the new cooking requirements, adding approximately 4-5 new positions in the kitchen [3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the combination of operational changes and a low comparative base from the previous year will likely lead to a positive same-store sales growth by the end of the year [3][4]. - The company is also opening new model stores for "Jiu Mao Jiu" and "Song Hot Pot" in Q4, which will be monitored for further developments [4].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's FOMC has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, indicating a shift in monetary policy [4] - The U.S. House of Representatives has passed the National Defense Authorization Act, reflecting ongoing governmental activities [4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised China's economic growth forecast for this year to 5%, suggesting a positive outlook for the Chinese economy [4] Economic Data - In November, the U.S. budget deficit reached $173 billion, highlighting fiscal challenges [4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.2%, indicating mixed inflationary pressures [4] - In October, domestic smartphone shipments in China totaled 32.27 million units, marking an 8.7% year-on-year increase, reflecting growth in the technology sector [4] Market Performance - The Nasdaq index closed at 23,654.16, up by 0.33%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.05% to 48,057.75, indicating a positive trend in U.S. equity markets [6] - The Baltic Dry Index decreased by 5.09% to 2,557.00, suggesting a decline in shipping rates [6] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,540.78, up by 0.42%, indicating stability in the Hong Kong market [6]