哈尔滨电气（1133.HK） 2026-01-27 星期二 即时点评 25 年预计录得 26.5 亿元归母净利润，超预期 【事件】 公司于 2026 年 1 月 26 日晚间公告盈利预告，初步评估，预期公司 2025 年度录得归母净利润约 26.5 亿元（上年同期为人民币 16.9 亿元），同比 大幅增长。主要原因为公司 2025 年度营业收入较去年有所增长，产品盈 利能力进一步提高。 【点评观点】 1. 公司 2025 年度净利润同比+57.2%，超预期： 公司预计 2025 年实现归母净利润 26.5 亿元，同比增长约 57.2%，超过我 们预测的 25 亿元的预期。期间净利润大幅增长主要原因包括营业收入增 长、产品盈利能力进一步提高。这与我们此前对公司前期收获的高价值订 单将逐步释放，毛利率仍有上升空间的判断一致；同时由于公司生产规模 扩大，智能化制造能力显著增强，企业的规模效应和运营效率大幅提升。 2. 短中期优质订单继续释放，中长期设备出口等业务提供持续性： 我们认为短中期公司在手订单依旧充沛，我们预期公司煤电订单在"十五 五前期"依旧是利润贡献核心，"十五五中后期"逐步实现平稳，公司抽 蓄和核电订 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests that under the current circumstances, the performance of Hong Kong stocks may continue to outperform that of US stocks, showing an oscillatory upward trend. The main reasons are that the weakening of the US dollar's credit is naturally beneficial to non - US assets, and Hong Kong stocks, mainly composed of Chinese assets, are expected to benefit; additionally, Hong Kong stocks have a long - term low valuation level and better elasticity, and the improvement of domestic demand may become a new investment theme, attracting more incremental capital [3][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Views 3.1.1 Market Summary - Last week, the Hang Seng Index returned to an oscillatory market, with a slight decline of 0.36% at the weekend close. The raw materials sector performed well, with a weekly increase of 4.1% and a year - to - date increase of 17.82%, leading all primary industry sectors in Hong Kong stocks. Among secondary sectors, durable consumer goods rebounded with a weekly increase of 19.7%, followed by the steel and non - ferrous sectors with increases of 6.6% and 5.8% respectively. Sectors such as pharmaceuticals and software sales were relatively weak. The overall risk appetite of the Hong Kong stock market remained stable, with market hotspots concentrated in commodities and raw materials sectors such as non - ferrous metals and energy, while high - valuation sectors oscillated. In terms of funds, the share of the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong increased by 1.74%, the share of the ETFs that short the Hang Seng Index and the Technology Index by double fell by 5.15%, and the net inflow of Southbound Stock Connect funds was HK$23.523 billion, indicating a recovery in the scale of inflow funds [1][6]. 3.1.2 Market Environment - Last week, silver continued to outperform all major asset classes, with a year - to - date increase of 46%, significantly outperforming global equity assets. The Brazilian and Latin American markets performed well due to the upward cycle of global commodities, outperforming other regional equity assets year - to - date. The Hang Seng Index underperformed the A - share market again last week, and recently, the Hong Kong and US stock markets showed similar oscillatory trends, indicating a lack of short - term catalysts for the upward movement of stock indices under the backdrop of the Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts. The US released its latest economic data, with the final annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP growth rate in Q3 2025 reaching 4.4%, higher than the initial value of 4.3% and the fastest growth rate in nearly two years. The core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations, showing that the US economy is running smoothly and the possibility of accelerated inflation is low. In China, the National Bureau of Statistics released the latest economic data, showing that the GDP growth rate in 2025 was 5%, with a Q4 growth rate of 4.5% and a Q3 growth rate of 4.8%. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries in December was 5.2%, and the cumulative growth rate for the whole year was 5.9%. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in December was 0.9%, and the cumulative growth rate for the year was 3.7%. In 2025, China's economy showed a strong transformation of new and old driving forces, with economic growth concentrated in high - end manufacturing such as chips and industrial robots, and the growth rate of consumption slowed down after the subsidy withdrawal in the second half of the year. The growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline, indicating the continuous impact of the real - estate market adjustment [7][8]. 3.1.3 Views on Hong Kong Stocks - Hong Kong stocks have shown an obvious structural market since January this year, with significant market differentiation. The raw materials industry represented by non - ferrous metals has performed strongly, with a year - to - date increase of over 17%, and its price - to - earnings ratio is gradually approaching that of the medical industry, which has the highest price - to - earnings ratio in Hong Kong stocks. On the other hand, the technology sector mainly composed of Internet platforms has performed weakly, underperforming the Hang Seng Index since the beginning of the year, similar to traditional defensive sectors such as the consumer staples, financial, and telecommunications industries. This situation is also similar in the US stock market recently, where the energy and materials sectors have far outperformed other sectors, while the technology sector has been weak overall, and upstream cyclical industries have performed relatively better. This may be affected by the current global macro - environment, including the strong resilience of the US economy, high inflation stickiness, low market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts before the change of the Fed chairman, the weakening of the US dollar's credit due to the debt cliff and geopolitical disturbances, and the upward transmission of the focus of the AI industry to the upstream. In the short term, the low expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the weakening of the US dollar's credit have become the trading mainlines in overseas markets, which resonate with the Hong Kong stock market that has an AI industry chain and is sensitive to overseas liquidity. The report believes that Hong Kong stocks may continue to outperform US stocks and show an oscillatory upward trend. In the medium - to - long - term, the Hong Kong stock market still has good capital - side resilience, and the trend of expansion and allocation dominated by mainland funds is still strong [9][10]. 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Performance of Stock Index Futures - The report provides the closing prices, weekly changes, trading volumes, open interests, changes in open interests, basis, and changes in basis compared to the previous week of various stock index futures last week, including the Hang Seng Index Futures 2601, H - share Index Futures 2601, Hang Seng Technology Index Futures 2601, Dow Jones Mini Futures, S&P 500 Mini Futures, and NASDAQ 100 Mini Futures [13]. 3.2.2 Market Performance - The report presents the closing prices, weekly changes, year - to - date changes, weekly trading volumes, and price - to - earnings ratios of major Hong Kong and US stock indices last week, such as the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NASDAQ Index, and NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index. It also shows the price changes of various industry sectors in Hong Kong stocks last week, including the raw materials, energy, and other industries, as well as the top five and bottom five sectors in terms of price changes in the WIND secondary sectors of Hong Kong stocks. Additionally, it provides information on the trading of relatively active ETFs in Hong Kong stocks, such as the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong and the Southern Hang Seng Technology ETF, including their closing prices, weekly changes, year - to - date changes relative to the Hang Seng Index, returns in the past six months, fund shares, changes in fund shares compared to the previous week, weekly trading volumes, net asset values per share, fund sizes, and changes in net asset values. For the US stock market, it shows the price changes of various industry sectors and ETFs [15][16][17][18]. 3.3 Market External Environment Tracking 3.3.1 Update of Domestic Macroeconomic Data - The report updates domestic and US macroeconomic data, including GDP, industrial added value, social retail sales, inflation, social financing scale, and other indicators in China, as well as GDP, industrial production, consumption, employment, inflation, and other indicators in the US [28][29]. 3.3.2 Latest Central Bank Movements - Rick Rieder, an executive at BlackRock, has seen his winning probability in the competition for the Fed chairmanship soar from 6% to 49% and take the lead. The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.75% and raised its economic growth and inflation expectations for the fiscal year 2026. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda said that he would closely monitor the impact of the weakening yen, and if long - term bond yields rise abnormally, the bank will buy government bonds to stabilize the market. People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that in 2026, China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity. There is still some room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [30]. 3.3.3 Some Important Domestic and International News - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, reaching RMB140.19 trillion. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries was 5.9%, and the added value of the service industry increased by 5.4%, accounting for 57.7% of GDP. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 52%. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with real - estate development investment falling by 17.2%. The housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities in December showed an overall decline in the month - on - month and an expansion of the year - on - year decline. In the US, the final annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.4%, and the core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The number of initial jobless claims last week was 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000. US President Trump reached an agreement framework on Greenland with NATO Secretary - General Rutte and will not implement the originally planned tariffs on February 1. Japan's trade deficit in 2025 was 2.65 trillion yen, with exports increasing by 3.1% to a record - high of 110.45 trillion yen, and exports to the US decreasing by 4.1% for the first time in five years [32]. 3.3.4 This Week's Focus - The Fed's interest - rate meeting is the focus of this week [32].

Investment Rating - The report recommends subscription for Dongpeng Beverage (9980.HK) [1] Core Insights - Dongpeng Beverage is the largest functional beverage company in China, with a market share of 26.3% in 2024 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 41.9% from 2022 to 2024, making it the fastest-growing among the top five functional beverage companies in China [2][3] - The Chinese soft drink market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.7% from 2019 to 2024, with functional beverages being the fastest-growing segment at a CAGR of 8.3% during the same period [2] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2023, 2024, and 2025 was 112.57 billion, 158.30 billion, and 168.38 billion CNY respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 33.81%, 42.08%, and 35.41% [3] - The net profit for the same periods was 20.40 billion, 33.27 billion, and 37.61 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth of 41.60%, 63.09%, and 38.91% [3] - The company has expanded its sales network to over 3,200 distributors and more than 4.3 million retail outlets, achieving nearly 100% coverage of prefecture-level cities [3] - The IPO price corresponds to a 2024 price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of approximately 37.46, slightly lower than the A-share valuation of 38.85 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds declined last week, with 6 new bonds issued, totaling approximately $1.906 billion. The secondary market showed a slight increase, and US Treasury yields fluctuated upward [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market - The issuance volume of the primary market for Chinese offshore bonds declined last week, with 6 new bonds issued, totaling approximately $1.906 billion. MTR Corporation issued two green bonds totaling A$2 billion, the largest issuance scale last week, and Shui On Land issued a $300 million bond with a coupon rate of 9.75%, the highest - priced new bond last week [7] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Chinese US - dollar Bond Index Performance - The Chinese US - dollar bond index (Bloomberg Barclays) rose 0.15% week - on - week, and the emerging market US - dollar bond index rose 0.20%. The investment - grade index was at 203.1452, up 0.15% for the week, and the high - yield index was at 161.8156, up 0.18% for the week. The Chinese US - dollar bond return index (Markit iBoxx) rose 0.11% week - on - week, with the investment - grade return index at 244.9461, up 0.1% for the week, and the high - yield return index at 243.7889, up 0.21% for the week [9][14] 2.2 Performance of Chinese US - dollar Bond Industries - Different industries showed different trends. The telecommunications and healthcare sectors led the rise, while the real estate and non - essential consumer sectors led the decline. For example, the telecommunications sector's yield decreased by 45.5bps, and the healthcare sector's yield decreased by 40.2bps. The real estate sector's yield increased by 19.6Mbps, and the non - essential consumer sector's yield increased by 98bps [19][24] 2.3 Performance of Chinese US - dollar Bonds by Different Ratings - Investment - grade names generally rose, with the A - grade weekly yield down 5.0bps and the BBB - grade weekly yield down 2.7bps. High - yield names mostly fell, with the BB - grade yield down 6.6bps, the DD+ to NR - grade yield up about 7.9bps, and the non - rated name yield up 6.7Mbps [21] 2.4 Hot Events in the Bond Market Last Week - Fanhai Holdings failed to repay interest - bearing debts totaling 34.06 billion yuan as of December 31, 2025. Sunac China Holdings had new overdue borrowings and 19 new acts of dishonesty [25][26] 2.5 Rating Adjustments of Entities Last Week - Sichuan Huixing Industrial Investment and Development Co., Ltd.'s long - term issuer credit rating was BBB -; Qingdao Haifa Group's international long - term issuer credit rating was upgraded from A to A+; Ganzhou Urban Construction Investment Group's issuer rating was A - with a positive outlook; Moody's maintained the rating and stable outlook of Bohai Bank; Moody's adjusted the rating outlook of Yuexiu Real Estate Investment Trust Fund to stable; Moody's downgraded Wanda Commercial's family rating to Ca with a negative outlook; Fitch confirmed the long - term foreign and domestic currency issuer rating of Qingdao Huatong Group as BBB+ with a stable outlook [28][29] 3. US Treasury Bond Quotes - The report provides quotes for 30 US Treasury bonds with maturities over 6 months, including details such as code, maturity date, current price, yield to maturity, and coupon [30] 4. Macro Data Tracking - As of January 23, the 1 - year US Treasury yield was 3.5083%, down 2.66bps from the previous week; the 2 - year yield was 3.594%, up 0.8bps; the 5 - year yield was 3.8245%, up 0.93bps; the 10 - year yield was 4.2252%, up 0.23bps [35] 5. Macro News - The final annualized quarter - on - quarter growth rate of the US GDP in Q3 2025 was 4.4%, higher than the initial value. Trump reached an agreement framework on Greenland issues, and related tariffs will not take effect. Most economists expect the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged this quarter. The US national debt increased by about $2.25 trillion in 2025. The IMF raised the economic growth forecasts for China and the world in 2026. The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.75%. South Korea's GDP grew 1% year - on - year in 2025. China's GDP in 2025 grew 5% year - on - year. The central bank governor said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. Three departments extended the tax incentives for innovative enterprise CDRs. The Ministry of Finance said the fiscal expenditure in 2026 will only increase. Six departments extended the tax incentives for community family services. Nine departments issued opinions to promote the high - quality development of the pharmaceutical retail industry. The shipment volume of Chinese foldable mobile phones increased 9.2% year - on - year in 2025. Housing prices in Chinese cities generally declined in December 2025. The extension proposal of "21 Vanke 02" was approved [34][35][36]

Core Insights - The report highlights the slight increase in the US GDP for the third quarter, which is above expectations, indicating a resilient economic performance [4] - The European Central Bank's meeting minutes suggest that maintaining stable interest rates for an extended period may be appropriate, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy [4] - The report mentions the potential for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates in China, indicating a supportive monetary stance to stimulate economic growth [4] Economic Data Summary - The Baltic Dry Index increased by 4.28% to 1803.00, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates [5] - The Nasdaq Index rose by 0.91% to 23436.02, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.63% to 49384.01, reflecting a bullish sentiment in the US stock market [5] - Crude oil prices (ICE Brent) decreased by 1.29% to $64.40, while gold prices (London Gold Spot) increased by 2.18% to $4938.35, showing mixed trends in commodity markets [5] - The US dollar index fell by 0.50% to 98.28, indicating a weakening dollar against other currencies [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26629.96, up by 0.17%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.14% to 4122.58, reflecting stability in the Hong Kong and mainland Chinese markets [5]

Economic Indicators - China's total retail sales of consumer goods are projected to reach CNY 50.1 trillion by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 3.7%[4] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 0.39 basis points to 3.584%[4] - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 2.63 basis points to 3.822%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped by 5.16 basis points to 4.241%[4] Market Performance - The Nasdaq index closed at 23,224.82, up by 1.18%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49,077.23, increasing by 1.21%[5] - The S&P 500 index finished at 6,875.62, rising by 1.16%[5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,585.06, up by 0.37%[5] - The Shanghai Composite Index ended at 4,116.94, with a slight increase of 0.08%[5]

Core Insights - The report highlights a decrease in the average weekly new jobs added in the US, with the latest figure at 8,000, down from the previous value of 11,750 [4] - The report notes significant movements in US Treasury yields, with the 2-year yield rising by 1.68 basis points to 3.595%, the 5-year yield increasing by 5.10 basis points to 3.857%, and the 10-year yield up by 7.94 basis points to 4.293% [4] - The report indicates that Japan plans to invest over $330 billion in artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors, reflecting a strategic focus on technology [4] Economic Data Summary - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1,650.00, showing an increase of 5.30% [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 22,954.32, down by 2.39%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 48,488.59, decreasing by 1.76% [5] - The ICE Brent crude oil price was reported at $64.00, with a slight increase of 0.09% [5] - The USD/CNY exchange rate was 6.96, reflecting a decrease of 0.05% [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,487.51, down by 0.29%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 1.16% to 5,683.44 [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yadea Holdings, with a target price of HKD 16.43, indicating a potential upside of 37.5% from the current price of HKD 11.95 [1][7][14]. Core Insights - The company has announced a significant profit increase for 2025, with an expected net profit of at least RMB 2.9 billion, representing a growth of over 128% compared to RMB 1.27 billion in 2024. This increase is attributed to higher sales of electric two-wheelers and optimized product structure [4][9]. - The new national standard for electric bicycles is set to stabilize the market post-Chinese New Year 2026, as the transition period for old standard products will end, leading to a gradual recovery in consumer purchasing willingness [5][10]. - Yadea is focusing on long-term growth through continuous investment in R&D and marketing, enhancing its product competitiveness and global marketing capabilities. In H1 2025, the company sold approximately 8.79 million electric scooters and bicycles, a year-on-year increase of about 37.8%, with a gross margin rising to 19.6% [6][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Yadea from 2025 to 2027 are RMB 35.78 billion (+26.7%), RMB 40.48 billion (+13.1%), and RMB 45.59 billion (+12.6%) respectively. The net profit forecasts are RMB 2.99 billion (+135%), RMB 3.25 billion (+8.8%), and RMB 3.55 billion (+9.3%) [12][8]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 18.7% in 2025 to 19.8% in 2027, reflecting ongoing enhancements in product structure and sales volume [8][12].

Core Insights - The report highlights the rising tensions in US-EU relations due to Trump's strong statements regarding Greenland, which have led to increased risk aversion and subsequently pushed gold and silver prices to new highs [3] - The report notes that US pharmaceutical companies have threatened to halt new drug supplies to Europe unless prices are increased, indicating potential disruptions in the pharmaceutical supply chain [3] - The IMF has raised its economic forecasts for China and the global economy for 2026, projecting China's GDP to exceed 140 trillion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5% [3] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1567.00, up by 2.28%, while the Nasdaq Index closed at 23515.39, down by 0.06% [4] - The price of ICE Brent crude oil was reported at $64.18, with a slight increase of 0.08%, and the London gold spot price reached $4671.72, up by 1.58% [4] - The exchange rate for USD to RMB (CFETS) was 6.96, reflecting a decrease of 0.08% [4] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26563.90, down by 1.05%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index closed at 9134.45, down by 0.94% [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.00, with a slight increase of 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 2700.08, up by 0.50% [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds continued to recover last week, with 8 new bonds issued, totaling approximately $3.27 billion. The secondary market's high-yield segment outperformed the investment-grade segment. The yields of US Treasury bonds fluctuated upward. The performance of Chinese US dollar bonds varied across different indices, industries, and ratings [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market - The primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds continued to recover last week, with 8 new bonds issued, totaling approximately $3.27 billion. Kuaishou issued two bonds totaling $1.5 billion, the largest issuance scale of the week. Taian Guotaiminan Investment Group issued a 300 million RMB bond with a coupon rate of 6.95%, the highest pricing of new bonds last week [1][6][10] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Chinese US Dollar Bond Index Performance - The Chinese US dollar bond index (Bloomberg Barclays) rose 0.02% week-on-week, and the emerging market US dollar bond index rose 0.09%. The investment-grade index closed at 202.8433, down 0.06% week-on-week, while the high-yield index closed at 161.5312, up 0.63% week-on-week. The Chinese US dollar bond return index (Markit iBoxx) rose 0.05% week-on-week. The investment-grade return index closed at 244.7063, up 0.03% week-on-week, and the high-yield return index closed at 243.2798, up 0.23% week-on-week [4][9][15] 2.2 Chinese US Dollar Bond Industry Performance - In terms of industries, the communication and materials sectors led the gains, while the real estate and non-essential consumption sectors led the losses. The communication sector was mainly affected by the rising prices of companies such as Bilibili and 21Vianet, with yields down 53.3bps. The materials sector was mainly affected by the rising prices of companies such as Silvercorp Metals and Jingjiang Port Group, with yields down 25.6bps. The real estate sector was mainly affected by the falling prices of companies such as Times China Holdings and Sino-Ocean Group, with yields up 6.1Mbps. The non-essential consumption sector was mainly affected by the falling prices of companies such as NIO and First Real Estate Group, with yields up 44.6bps [18] 2.3 Chinese US Dollar Bond Rating Performance - According to Bloomberg's comprehensive rating, investment-grade names had mixed performance, with A-rated names' weekly yields up 1.3bps and BBB-rated names' weekly yields down 5.2bps. High-yield names mostly rose, with BB-rated names' yields down 9.9bps, DD+ to NR-rated names' yields down about 13.0bps, and unrated names' yields up 2.1Mbps [19] 2.4 Last Week's Bond Market Hot Events - R&F Properties failed to repay the principal and interest of "20 R&F Properties PPN001" totaling approximately 1.138 billion RMB on schedule and is working hard to raise funds. Sunac China Holdings' subsidiary is involved in a major lawsuit, which has a certain adverse impact on the company's production, operation, and solvency, and the company is actively negotiating solutions [20][21][22] 2.5 Last Week's Subject Rating Adjustments - Kuaishou's long-term issuer credit rating was rated A- by S&P, A3 by Moody's, and A- by Fitch, with a stable outlook. The rating reflects Kuaishou's position as one of China's leading social media platforms, its large user base, high user engagement, and strong monetization ability. Linyi Dongcheng Construction Investment Group's issuer rating was upgraded by United International, reflecting its increasing contribution to the industrial operation in Hedong District, Linyi City, and its expanding business scope [24][25] 3. US Treasury Bond Quotes - Quotes of US Treasury bonds with maturities over 6 months are provided, sorted by yield to maturity from high to low, showing details such as maturity date, current price, yield to maturity, and coupon rate [26][28] 4. Macroeconomic Data Tracking - As of January 16, the yields of US Treasury bonds were as follows: 1-year (T1) at 3.5349%, up 3.80bps from last week; 2-year (T2) at 3.586%, up 5.39bps; 5-year (T5) at 3.8152%, up 6.53bps; 10-year (T10) at 4.2229%, up 5.76bps [31] 5. Macroeconomic News - In December 2025, the US CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, and the core CPI rose 2.6%, both unchanged from the previous value. Trump said he has no plan to remove Powell from office. US retail sales in November 2025 increased 0.6% month-on-month, the fastest growth since July 2025. The US White House announced a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors. Trump said countries doing business with Iran will face a 25% tariff. US Republican lawmakers support strengthening the supervision of lawmakers' stock trading. In November 2025, Japan increased its holdings of US Treasury bonds, while China reduced its holdings. The Prime Minister of Japan announced the intention to dissolve the House of Representatives. The Bank of Korea maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2.5%. The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges increased the margin ratio for margin trading. The central bank introduced a series of measures to support high-quality economic development. In 2025, China's aggregate financing increment was 35.6 trillion RMB, 3.34 trillion RMB more than the previous year. The policy of tax refund for home replacement was extended until the end of 2027 [5][32][46]