Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Mobile [3] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilient operational performance with steady revenue growth, achieving Q1 2025 revenue of CNY 263.8 billion, flat year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 30.6 billion, up 3.5% year-on-year [1][4] - The company is advancing its AI service capabilities through a comprehensive "cloud to intelligence" strategy, enhancing its AI infrastructure and service offerings [5] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported service revenue of CNY 222.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, while other business revenue decreased by 6.8% [1][4] - EBITDA for Q1 2025 reached CNY 80.7 billion, reflecting a 3.4% year-on-year increase, with an EBITDA margin of 30.6% [4][5] - The company’s mobile user base reached 1.003 billion, with a net decrease of 936,000 users, while 5G users increased by 25.27 million, reaching 578 million [2][5] Market Segment Performance - In the personal market, the mobile ARPU was CNY 46.9, down 2.1% year-on-year, while in the home market, the broadband user base grew to 320 million, with a comprehensive ARPU of CNY 40.8, up 2.3% year-on-year [2][5] - The enterprise market continues to expand with a focus on AI and DICT projects, contributing to an increased revenue share from this segment [2][5] Cash Flow and Cost Management - Operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was CNY 31.3 billion, down 45% year-on-year, attributed to accelerated payment schedules [5] - Cost management remains effective, with key expense ratios showing stability or improvement, such as depreciation and amortization costs as a percentage of service revenue decreasing to 21.5% [5][16] Future Profitability Projections - The company forecasts net profits of CNY 144.7 billion, CNY 150.3 billion, and CNY 155.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16.8, 16.2, and 15.6 [5][22][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilient operational performance with steady revenue growth, achieving Q1 2025 revenue of CNY 263.8 billion, flat year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 30.6 billion, up 3.5% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its AI service capabilities through a comprehensive "cloud to intelligence" strategy, optimizing its computing power network and expanding its AI offerings [5]. - The company is experiencing a short-term pressure on operating cash flow but is effectively managing costs, with a significant reduction in the proportion of key expenses relative to service revenue [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of CNY 263.8 billion, with service revenue of CNY 222.4 billion (up 1.4% year-on-year) and other revenue of CNY 41.4 billion (down 6.8% year-on-year) [1][4]. - EBITDA reached CNY 80.7 billion, reflecting a 3.4% year-on-year increase, with an EBITDA margin of 30.6% [4][5]. - The company’s net profit for Q1 2025 was CNY 30.6 billion, with a non-GAAP net profit of CNY 28.9 billion, marking a 10.8% year-on-year increase [4][5]. User Metrics - As of Q1 2025, the company had a total of 1.003 billion mobile users, with a net decrease of 936,000 users. The number of 5G network customers reached 578 million, with a penetration rate of 57.6% [2]. - The company’s fixed broadband user base grew to 320 million, with a net increase of 5.48 million users [2]. Market Strategy - The company is advancing its AI and DICT projects, enhancing its product solutions for business customers, and increasing its revenue share from emerging markets [2][5]. - The company is also focusing on expanding its international market presence with high-quality products [2]. Valuation and Forecast - The report projects the company’s net profit for 2025 to be CNY 144.7 billion, with a PE ratio of 16.8 times [6][23]. - The expected net profits for 2026 and 2027 are CNY 150.3 billion and CNY 155.9 billion, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16.2 and 15.6 [6][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company's performance in the smart controller segment continues to improve, with significant revenue growth in Q1 2025 and a strong outlook for the automotive electronics sector [6][7]. - The company is expected to see substantial profit growth in the coming years, with projected net profits of 6.92 billion, 9.04 billion, and 11.03 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 90%, 31%, and 22% [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 96.59 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.66%, and a net profit of 3.64 billion, up 9.91% [1][2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 25.85 billion, a 30.44% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.69 billion, which is a remarkable 75.41% growth [1][2]. - The smart controller business generated revenue of 94.48 billion in 2024, growing 30.86% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.79 billion, up 28.97% [6][7]. - The automotive electronics segment is experiencing rapid growth, transitioning from OEM to ODM projects, which is expected to enhance profit margins [6][7]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 26.0, 19.9, and 16.3 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [6][7]. - The report highlights a decrease in overall expense ratios, contributing to improved profitability [6][7]. Shareholder Information - The major shareholder, Liu Jianwei, holds a 16.05% stake in the company [3].

Group 1 - The total scale of active funds returned to growth in Q1 2025, with an increase of 35.6 billion to 3.46 trillion, while passive funds saw a slight decline of 4 billion to 3.56 trillion [10][12] - Active equity funds showed a decrease in holding concentration, with the top 20, 50, and 100 stocks accounting for 28.46%, 42.75%, and 56.27% of the total market value, respectively [19][20] - The investment strategy of active equity funds focused on technology, consumption, and resource products, with a preference for small and mid-cap growth styles [41][42] Group 2 - Active equity funds increased their allocation to TMT sectors, particularly electronics, media, and computing, driven by advancements in AI technology [22][41] - There was a notable increase in allocations to domestic consumption, particularly in food and beverage, retail, and beauty care, as external demand became less stable [32][35] - Resource products saw increased allocations, especially in industrial and precious metals, due to tight supply conditions and geopolitical risks [31][42] Group 3 - Passive funds showed a preference for cyclical sectors, consumer discretionary, and the CSI A50 index, with significant increases in their holdings [47] - The proportion of holdings in the main board increased to 63.7%, while the allocations to the ChiNext board decreased [45][46] - The sectors with the highest increases in passive fund allocations included banks, public utilities, and computing [48]

Group 1 - The report highlights the recent policy support from four departments to enhance the functionality and coverage of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), which is significant for the internationalization of the Renminbi [2][10][11] - CIPS reduces reliance on SWIFT for cross-border clearing, improving the efficiency of Renminbi transactions globally and expanding its usage [5][11][21] - As of March 2025, CIPS has 170 direct participants and 1497 indirect participants, significantly involving institutions from countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, thus promoting trade and expanding the Renminbi's usage [16][18] Group 2 - The report indicates that the central bank conducted a net injection of 233.8 billion Yuan in the open market, with a total of 808 billion Yuan in reverse repos maturing in the upcoming week [24][25] - The report notes a decrease in the issuance of public funds and a net outflow of financing funds amounting to 55.5 billion Yuan, while ETF inflows reached 368.2 billion Yuan [36][41] - The market sentiment improved with a decrease in the VIX index, indicating a recovery in risk appetite among investors [47][51] Group 3 - The report identifies a preference for sectors such as electronics, banking, and biomedicine, which saw significant net inflows of funds [55][57] - The highest net inflows in ETFs were recorded in the banking and electronics sectors, with respective inflows of 50.7 billion Yuan and 49.2 billion Yuan [56][61] - The report also highlights that the net outflow of financing funds was concentrated in sectors like computing and non-bank financials, indicating a shift in investor preferences [57][61]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company achieved steady growth in its annual performance, with a revenue of 4.047 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.86%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 605 million yuan, up 6.27% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is expanding its new product lines, which is expected to lay a foundation for future growth [1][6]. - The electronic materials segment showed robust growth, with revenue of 624 million yuan, a 4.22% increase year-on-year, and a sales volume of 9,539 tons, up 19.25% year-on-year [6]. - The catalyst materials business experienced a slowdown in growth, while the dental business shows promising prospects [6]. - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in the new energy and precision ceramics sectors, which is anticipated to further open up growth opportunities [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 4.047 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.962 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% [2][12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 605 million yuan in 2024 to 1.059 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of around 19% [7][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.61 yuan in 2024 to 1.06 yuan in 2027 [7][12]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 28.5 in 2024 to 16.3 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation [7][12]. Key Financial Ratios - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 39.7% in 2024 to 40.2% in 2027 [13]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 9.3% in 2024 to 12.4% in 2027 [13]. - The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease from 21.0% in 2024 to 19.8% in 2027, indicating improved financial stability [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company reported a significant year-on-year increase in net profit for Q1 2025, with a net profit of 1.019 billion yuan, representing a growth of 35.52% [1]. - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was 6.269 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.36% year-on-year, attributed to a decline in product prices despite an increase in sales volume for key products [1][7]. - The company is enhancing its growth potential through new project implementations and an accelerated overseas expansion strategy, including a planned acquisition of assets from Xiehe Fermentation for approximately 500 million yuan [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected total revenue for the company is expected to recover from a decline in 2024, with estimates of 27.665 billion yuan in 2025, 30.516 billion yuan in 2026, and 32.366 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 10% in 2025 and 10% in 2026 [2][14]. - The estimated net profit for 2025 is projected at 3.106 billion yuan, with an EPS of 1.09 yuan, and the corresponding PE ratios are 10.0 for 2025, 8.7 for 2026, and 7.9 for 2027 [7][14]. - The company has a total market capitalization of 31 billion yuan and a current share price of 10.86 yuan [3][7]. Product Performance - The company's main product revenues showed mixed results, with feed amino acids revenue at 2.94 billion yuan (up 6.7% year-on-year) and flavoring agents revenue at 1.81 billion yuan (down 11.6% year-on-year) [7]. - The average market prices for key products such as lysine and MSG have shown a decline, with lysine at 5.17 yuan/kg (down 2.1%) and MSG at 7.16 yuan/kg (down 12.5%) [7]. Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on expanding its product offerings and enhancing its production capabilities through new projects, including the completion of the Tongliao MSG expansion project and the initiation of the Baicheng lysine project [7]. - The company aims to strengthen its market position in the bio-fermentation industry by leveraging its diverse product range and strong cost control capabilities [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with stable gross margins and slight optimization in expense ratios. AI technology is driving stable growth in both B-end and C-end businesses, with the commercialization of the Spark large model accelerating [1][5]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 23.343 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 18.79%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 560 million yuan, down 14.78% year-over-year, while the non-recurring net profit increased by 59.36% to 188 million yuan [5][7]. - The gross margin remained stable at 42.63%, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.95 percentage points to 2.17% due to increased bad debt provisions and reduced investment income [5][7]. - The company is significantly increasing its investment in the "Xunfei Spark" large model, with an additional R&D investment of 740 million yuan during the reporting period, establishing a solid foundation for competitive advantage in the AI industry [5][6]. Financial Data Summary - The company expects revenues of 27.673 billion yuan, 33.001 billion yuan, and 39.300 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 738 million yuan, 1.072 billion yuan, and 1.312 billion yuan [6][7]. - The report indicates a projected PE ratio of 141.6, 97.4, and 79.6 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][7]. - The company reported a significant improvement in operating cash flow, reaching 2.495 billion yuan in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 613.40% [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][6][2] Core Views - The company reported a significant profit growth in Q1 2025, with a revenue increase of 47.52% year-on-year, reaching 73.65 million yuan, and a net profit increase of 71.77%, amounting to 6.97 million yuan [1][6] - Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment in 2024, the company is expected to benefit from the expansion of its overseas business and trends in smart water management and thermal measurement reform [6][1] - The company has launched an employee stock ownership plan to enhance employee motivation, with performance targets based on net profit growth [6][1] Financial Data and Valuation - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 386 million yuan, a decrease of 22.19% year-on-year, and a net profit of 57.72 million yuan, down 44.65% year-on-year [1][11] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 411 million yuan, 441 million yuan, and 496 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 65 million yuan, 72 million yuan, and 81 million yuan [1][11] - The company’s PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 31.1, 27.8, and 24.6, respectively [12][1] Product Performance - The ultrasonic water meter segment faced challenges, with a revenue decline of 32.73% in 2024, while the ultrasonic heat meter segment saw a slight revenue increase of 1.83% [6][1] - The overseas revenue for 2024 was 50 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31%, driven by successful bids for projects such as the ultrasonic water meter project in Australia [6][1] Shareholder Information - The company has a total share capital of 201 million shares, with 134 million shares in circulation and a total market capitalization of 2 billion yuan [2][6]

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 04 月 22 日 1 季度经济数据超预期是否影响国内政策 3、《短期贷款表现亮眼——3 月金融数据点评》2025-04-13 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 15 期） 频率：每周 外需冲击逐步显现的背景下，经济开门红不会影响逆周期调节力度的加大。 风险提示：地缘政治风险、国内政策落地不及预期、全球衰退及主要经济体货 币政策超预期。 定期报告 相关报告 1 、 《 显 微 镜 下 的 中 国 经 济 (2025 年第 14 期)-特朗普的两 难》2025-04-14 2、《央国企动态系列报告之 37：央国企大幅回购增持，更 多市值管理举措或加速落地》 2025-04-14 除房地产投资增速和价格水平偏弱之外，工业增加值、基建投资、制造业投 资、社零、新增信贷、社融等 1 季度国内经济、金融指标表现均好于市场预 期，但市场对接下来政策力度的担忧再次 ...