上 市 公 司 房地产 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 2025 年 05 月 16 日 贝壳-W (02423) ——经纪业务收入增长靓眼，多元赛道利润率稳步修复 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 77,777 | 93,457 | 110,740 | 122,649 | 135,786 | | 同比增长率（%） | 28 | 20 | 18 | 11 | 11 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,883 | 4,065 | 6,201 | 7,544 | 9,121 | | 同比增长率（%） | -524 | -31 | 53 | 22 | 21 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.63 | 1.15 | 1.77 | 2.15 | 2.60 | | 净资产收益率（%） | 8.16 | 5.70 | 8.68 | 10.70 | 13.17 | | 市盈率 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 reached 180 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%, primarily driven by strong performance in advertising and gaming sectors [1][9] - Adjusted operating profit for Q1 2025 was 69.3 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year, with a Non-IFRS net profit of 61.3 billion RMB, reflecting a 22% increase [1][9] - The company is leveraging AI capabilities to enhance existing businesses and explore new opportunities, particularly within its WeChat ecosystem [2][15] Revenue Breakdown - Gaming revenue for Q1 2025 was 59.5 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 23.7%, with domestic gaming revenue rising 24% to 42.9 billion RMB [2][20] - The advertising revenue for Q1 2025 was 31.9 billion RMB, marking a 20% increase year-on-year, driven by growth in high-quality ad inventory [3][28] - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue grew 5% year-on-year to 54.9 billion RMB, with a recovery in growth rates observed [4][29] Profitability Metrics - The company's Non-IFRS net profit margin improved to 34.1%, up 5 percentage points year-on-year, with a comprehensive gross margin of 56%, an increase of 3 percentage points [1][9] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 252.5 billion RMB, 283.2 billion RMB, and 312.9 billion RMB respectively, indicating strong growth potential [7][35] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the growth of its WeChat e-commerce and AI applications, which are not fully reflected in current profit forecasts [7][35] - Capital expenditures for Q1 2025 were 27.5 billion RMB, a significant increase of 91% year-on-year, indicating investment in AI and infrastructure [2][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, primarily due to weakened demand in Asia and North America [1] - Adjusted EBITDA profit was $130 million, down 20.8% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was $48.2 million, down 41.9% year-on-year, indicating profit pressure under negative operating leverage [1] - The company anticipates revenues of $3.6 billion, $3.7 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of $300 million, $347.8 million, and $397.2 million, reflecting a temporary performance pressure due to tariff policies and macroeconomic fluctuations [5] Regional Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from Asia was $310 million, down 9.7% year-on-year, while North America generated $260 million, down 8.3% year-on-year. Europe, however, showed resilience with revenue of $180 million, flat year-on-year, and a 4.4% increase in fixed exchange rates [2] - The Indian market benefited from strategic adjustments, showing a fixed exchange rate revenue increase of 2.6%, while South Korea and China faced declines due to overall demand weakness [2] Brand Performance - Revenue by brand in Q1 2025 was $410 million for Samsonite, $190 million for TUMI, and $130 million for American Tourister, with TUMI showing relative resilience with a year-on-year decline of only 3.7% [3] - The company opened 9 new stores, bringing the total to 1,128, demonstrating confidence in growth despite a weakening retail environment [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - Gross margin for Q1 2025 was 59.4%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a lower proportion of high-margin sales from Asia [4] - The adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability due to rising expense ratios [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a P/E ratio of 9, 8, and 7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting the company's valuation amidst current market conditions [5] - The anticipated net profit for 2025 is $300 million, representing a 13.1% decline from the previous year, but expected to recover with a 15.8% increase in 2026 [11]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·地产(HS) 贝壳-W（02423.HK） 2025Q1 业绩公告点评：营收稳健增长，经调 整利润略超预期 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 77,777 | 93,457 | 109,626 | 127,495 | 147,384 | | 同比（%） | 28.20 | 20.16 | 17.30 | 16.30 | 15.60 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 5,883 | 4,065 | 6,589 | 8,497 | 10,493 | | 同比（%） | 524.45 | (30.91) | 62.10 | 28.96 | 23.48 | | Non-GAAP 净利润（百万元） | 9,798 | 7,211 | 9,701 | 11,615 | 13,617 | | 同比（%） | 244.70 | (26.41) | 34.53 | 19.73 | 17.2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company's core business performance remains robust, with Q4 FY25 total revenue reaching 236.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, slightly below the consensus expectation of 7.2% [1] - Adjusted EBITA for Q4 FY25 was 32.6 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.1%, aligning closely with market expectations [1] - The company's cloud business revenue grew by 17.7% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations of 16.9% [1] - The management expresses confidence in the continued acceleration of cloud revenue growth due to strong demand and ongoing iterations of AI model supply [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 FY25, Taobao's revenue increased by 8.7% to 101.4 billion RMB, outperforming the consensus expectation of 4.9% [2] - The adjusted EBITA profit for Taobao was 41.7 billion RMB, up 8.4% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in high-margin revenue streams [2] - The company anticipates continued commercial capability release in FY26, supported by improved penetration rates and commission rate increases [2] Cloud Business - Alibaba Cloud's revenue for Q4 FY25 increased by 17.7%, with external revenue also growing by 17% [3] - The adjusted EBITA profit margin rose to 8.0%, despite a slight decline due to increased investments in AI and cloud infrastructure [3] - Management noted that AI-related product revenue has seen triple-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters, indicating strong demand [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The FY26 and FY27 non-GAAP net profit forecasts have been adjusted downwards by 5.2% and 4.1% to 171.0 billion RMB and 199.3 billion RMB, respectively, with a new FY28 forecast introduced at 215.8 billion RMB [4][16] - The target price based on SOTP valuation is set at 189.6 USD for US shares and 185.1 HKD for Hong Kong shares, corresponding to 18.7, 16.1, and 14.9 times the FY26-28 non-GAAP forecast PE [4][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return that will outperform the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of CNY 996.347 billion for FY2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was CNY 129.470 billion, up 62.4% year-on-year [1][4]. - In Q4 FY2025, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 236.454 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, and a net profit of CNY 12.382 billion, which is a significant increase of 278.7% year-on-year [1][9]. - The company has initiated a special cash dividend of USD 1.05 per ADS and a one-time cash special dividend of USD 0.95 per ADS, enhancing shareholder returns [3]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's core business segments showed strong performance, particularly in the Taotian Group, which saw a 11.8% increase in customer management revenue in Q4 FY2025, driven by an increase in take rate and effective marketing tools [2]. - The Cloud Intelligence Group experienced a revenue growth of 17.7% year-on-year, reaching CNY 30.127 billion, with strong demand for AI products, which have seen triple-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters [2]. Financial Forecasts - The report has adjusted the non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 downwards by 5% and 1% respectively, now predicting CNY 169.813 billion and CNY 185.318 billion. A new forecast for FY2028 is introduced at CNY 197.920 billion [4][5]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming fiscal years are 11.56% for FY2026, 6.71% for FY2027, and 5.29% for FY2028 [5]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be CNY 7.11 for FY2026, CNY 7.64 for FY2027, and CNY 7.89 for FY2028 [10][13]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 40.20% by FY2026 and remain stable through FY2028 [12]. Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased 1.197 billion shares for USD 11.9 billion in FY2025, reducing the number of ordinary shares by 5.1% [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8] Core Insights - The company's core business performance remains robust, with Q4 FY25 total revenue reaching 236.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, slightly below the consensus expectation of 7.2% [1] - Adjusted EBITA for Q4 FY25 was 32.6 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.1%, aligning closely with market expectations [1] - The company's cloud business revenue grew by 17.7% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations of 16.9% [1] - The management expresses confidence in the continued acceleration of cloud revenue growth due to strong demand and ongoing iterations of AI model supply [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 FY25 revenue for Taobao Group was 101.4 billion RMB, up 8.7% year-on-year, outperforming the consensus expectation of 4.9% [2] - The adjusted EBITA profit for Taobao Group was 41.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.4% [2] - The company expects to continue releasing commercial capabilities in FY26, supported by improved penetration rates and commission rate increases [2] Revenue Forecasts and Valuation - The report adjusts FY26/FY27 non-GAAP net profit forecasts down by 5.2% and 4.1% to 171.0 billion RMB and 199.3 billion RMB, respectively, while introducing a new FY28 estimate of 215.8 billion RMB [4][16] - The SOTP-based target price for the US stock is set at 189.6 USD, and for the Hong Kong stock at 185.1 HKD, corresponding to 18.7/16.1/14.9 times FY26-28 non-GAAP forecast PE [4][16] Segment Performance - The cloud business continues to show strong growth, with management noting that AI-related product revenue has seen triple-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters [3] - The management is optimistic about the future growth of the cloud segment, driven by expanding customer types beyond the internet sector [3] Key Metrics - The company’s projected revenue for FY26 is 1,088.3 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [6] - The adjusted EBITA margin for FY26 is expected to be 18.0% [18] - The adjusted EPS for FY26 is projected at 9.42 RMB, with a PE ratio of 13.43 [6][18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $3.6 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, and a decrease of 4.5% on a constant currency basis, primarily due to weakened demand in Asia and North America [1] - The adjusted EBITDA profit was $130 million, down 20.8% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was $48.2 million, down 41.9% year-on-year, indicating profit pressure under negative operating leverage [1] - Despite the short-term performance pressure due to tariff policies and macroeconomic fluctuations, the company maintains confidence in its three premium brand assets and anticipates a successful listing in the US to enhance liquidity [5] Regional Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, revenue by region showed: - Asia: $310 million, down 9.7% year-on-year, with India showing a constant currency growth of 2.6% due to strategic adjustments, while South Korea and China experienced declines [2] - North America: $260 million, down 8.3% year-on-year, with a 5.2% decline after excluding the impact of wholesalers' early purchases in Q4 2024 [2] - Europe: $180 million, flat year-on-year, with a 4.4% increase on a constant currency basis, driven by increasing brand penetration [2] - Latin America: $50 million, down 10.3% year-on-year, flat on a constant currency basis [2] Brand Performance Summary - Revenue by brand in Q1 2025: - Samsonite: $410 million, down 7.4% year-on-year - TUMI: $190 million, down 3.7% year-on-year, showing relative resilience with constant currency growth in Asia, Europe, and Latin America [3] - American Tourister: $130 million, down 14.0% year-on-year [3] Channel Performance Summary - Revenue by channel in Q1 2025: - Wholesale: $490 million, down 8.9% year-on-year - DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) retail: $220 million, down 5.5% year-on-year - DTC e-commerce: $80 million, down 2.5% year-on-year [3] - The company opened 9 new stores (19 opened, 10 closed) to reach a total of 1,128 stores, demonstrating confidence in development despite weak retail conditions [3] Profitability and Cost Structure - Q1 2025 gross margin was 59.4%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in the proportion of higher-margin Asia sales [4] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year, and net profit margin was 6.1%, down 3.6 percentage points, reflecting performance pressure from macroeconomic fluctuations [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $3.6 billion, $3.7 billion, and $3.9 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of $300 million, $350 million, and $400 million [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 9, 8, and 7 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for VSTECS with a target price of HKD 8.18 [3] Core Insights - VSTECS has shown strong financial performance in Q1 2025, with total revenue growth of 16-17% year-on-year, gross profit growth of 20-21%, and net profit growth of 28-29%, aligning with management's guidance for a revenue growth rate of 15-20% over the next three years [3] - The company has demonstrated a commitment to transparency and shareholder engagement by voluntarily updating its quarterly financial data [3] - The strong performance is attributed to the termination of low-margin operations in Southeast Asia, which has positively impacted overall profit margins [3] Financial Performance Summary - **Consumer Electronics Segment**: - Revenue: HKD 16,804 million (up 5.1% year-on-year) - Operating Profit Margin: 1.70% [2] - **Enterprise Systems Segment**: - Revenue: HKD 27,283 million (up 21.1% year-on-year) - Operating Profit Margin: 2.02% [2] - **Cloud Computing Segment**: - Revenue: HKD 2,420 million (up 55.1% year-on-year) - Operating Profit Margin: 3.95% [2] - **Total Revenue**: - Expected to reach HKD 46,508 million in H1 2025 (up 16.0% year-on-year) - Gross Profit: HKD 2,065 million (up 16.3% year-on-year) - Net Profit: HKD 591 million (up 30.3% year-on-year) [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a stable revenue growth with adjusted profits slightly exceeding expectations for Q1 2025, achieving a revenue of 23.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.4% [8] - The company's GTV (Gross Transaction Value) reached 843.7 billion yuan, up 34.0% year-on-year, driven by growth in various business segments [8] - The report highlights the expansion of the second-hand housing market and the increase in active stores and agents, with a 28.1% year-on-year growth in total transaction value for second-hand housing [8] - The new housing business also saw significant growth, with transaction value increasing by 53.0% year-on-year, and a slight improvement in commission rates [8] - The home decoration business is steadily developing, with profit margins improving [8] - Future performance is expected to benefit from the increasing turnover rate in the second-hand housing market and the growth of the home decoration business, with projected adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 being 9.7 billion, 11.6 billion, and 13.6 billion yuan respectively [8] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 77.8 billion yuan in 2023 to 147.4 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.6% [1] - The adjusted net profit is expected to increase significantly from 5.9 billion yuan in 2023 to 10.5 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1] - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates of 1.63 yuan for 2023, increasing to 2.91 yuan by 2027 [1]