Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating on CITICS-A and CICC-H, while Hundsun also receives a Buy rating. East Money is rated as Sell [2][24][33]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in A-share average daily trading volume (ADTV), which has surged to Rmb 1.9 trillion, driven by AI and ETF trading [6][10]. - The forecast for full-year 2025 ADTV growth has been raised from 15% to 22% year-on-year, reflecting strong market momentum [10]. - The average year-to-date return for the three brokers covered is -3% for A-shares and +6% for H-shares, indicating potential upside [16][13]. Summary by Sections Brokers Earnings Forecasts - Earnings forecasts for brokers CICC, CITICS, and GFS have been adjusted, with expected average year-on-year revenue/profit growth of 22%/30% in 4Q24 and 14%/18% in 2025E [2][20]. - Target prices for A/H shares have been adjusted by an average of 11%/13% based on new estimates [2][24]. Market Drivers - The AI theme is expected to attract up to US$ 200 billion of net capital inflows into the Chinese market over the next 12 months, significantly boosting trading volumes [6][8]. - The proportion of ETFs in market trading volume has increased from 7% in 2022 to 15% currently, contributing to the rise in ADTV [8][9]. Company-Specific Insights - CITICS is expected to benefit more directly from the ADTV increase due to its higher retail business mix, with a new A-share target price of Rmb 34.15 [2][28]. - CICC is projected to see faster earnings growth due to its higher market elasticity, with a new H-share target price of HK$ 16.47 [2][29]. - Hundsun is anticipated to benefit from increased broker capital expenditures starting from 2H25, with a new target price of Rmb 36.63 [2][35]. - East Money's growth outlook is weak due to diluted fees from increased ETF trading, leading to a Sell rating and a new target price of Rmb 12.51 [2][33].

摘要 Q&A 近期 T 价格为何上涨？ 近期 T 价格的上涨主要受到三重利好因素的推动：出口改善、内需增长以及进 口矿的收缩。首先，出口方面，自去年（2024 年）10 月 30 日中国海关恢复氧 化锑的出口编码以来，国内拥有出口资质的企业陆续申请出口许可证，氧化锑 的出口逐步改善。根据海关数据，去年 11 月和 12 月我国分别出口氧化锑 776 吨和 1,571 吨，12 月环比增长 102%，恢复到管制前三年平均水平的 41%左右。 其次，内需方面，在阻燃剂采购旺季和光伏抢装双重推动下需求增加。根据测 算，2023 年 T 下游消费结构中阻燃剂占比 50%，光伏玻璃占比 24%。以旧换新 • 中国氧化锑出口逐步改善，去年 12 月出口量环比增长 102%，恢复至管制 前三年平均水平的 41%左右，主要受益于企业积极申请出口许可证。 • 国内阻燃剂采购旺季和光伏抢装推动氧化锑需求增加。阻燃剂占下游消费 50%，光伏玻璃占 24%。以旧换新政策和新能源项目并网截止日期前加速排 产，均利好需求。 • 进口矿收缩导致国内冶炼产量受限。去年 12 月铁矿进口环比减少 63%，内 外盘价差高企抬升进口成本，抑制国内 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for various sectors, particularly in technology and construction, with a focus on government support and policy measures to stimulate growth [2][3][19]. Core Insights - The government has set a growth target of approximately 5% for 2025, with a CPI target of around 2%, reflecting a pragmatic approach to economic management [2]. - Fiscal policy is becoming more proactive, with an increase in the budget and local government special bonds, aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market [3][5]. - Emphasis on new productivity represented by AI and other emerging technologies, with a focus on modernizing the industrial system and promoting large-scale application demonstrations of new technologies [3][6][30]. - The resilience of Chinese exports is highlighted, with stable global market shares and an increase in the share of intermediate goods, indicating continued global reliance on China [7]. - Capital market reforms are deepening, with measures to attract long-term funds into the market, including increased allocations from insurance and public funds [10][19]. - The report outlines specific measures for the real estate sector, including demand stimulation and supply adjustments, to support market stabilization [23][21]. Summary by Sections Economic Goals and Policies - The government aims for a 5% growth target and a 2% CPI target, with fiscal policies becoming more aggressive, including a budget increase to 1.6 trillion yuan and an increase in local government special bonds to 4.4 trillion yuan [2][3]. Real Estate Market - The report emphasizes the need to stabilize the real estate market through various measures, including issuing special bonds to support local governments and expanding the use of special loans [5][21][23]. Emerging Industries - The focus is on AI, biomanufacturing, quantum technology, and 6G as key areas for future growth, with government support for large-scale applications of new technologies [6][30]. Export Resilience - Despite global supply chain disruptions, Chinese exports have shown resilience, maintaining stable market shares and increasing the share of intermediate goods [7]. Capital Market Reforms - The report discusses measures to deepen capital market reforms, including attracting long-term funds and optimizing stock issuance and merger regulations [10][19]. Construction and Building Materials - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds and 4.4 trillion yuan in special bonds, which is expected to improve the order and payment situation for construction enterprises [15][16]. Technology and Innovation - The report highlights the importance of technological innovation, particularly in AI and related fields, and emphasizes the need for core technology self-reliance [30][32].

Asia Pacific Equity Research 04 March 2025 Humanoid Robot Expert Call Takeaways (Part II): Commercialization is closer than you think We hosted an expert call today (Mar. 4) with Dr. Nicholas Nadeau, a distinguished figure in the fields of AI and robotics. Dr. Nadeau, with his extensive experience as a former CTO and founder in high-impact tech sectors, has been at the forefront of developing humanoid robots and integrating AI into practical applications. His tenure as CTO of 1X (formerly Halodi Robotics) s ...

摘要 Q&A 最近机械板块的市场环境和经济变化有哪些显著趋势？ 最近市场环境和经济变化对机械板块产生了显著影响。工程机械、AI 驱动的 AIDC 以及机器人等细分方向都出现了新的发展趋势。特别是智能制造领域，市 场关注度较高，我们进行了相关调研，寻找低位且预期不足的个股，如八方股 份和捷昌驱动。 中金公司 高端装备半月谈 • 电助力自行车行业库存周期接近尾声，八方股份受益于新老客户需求叠加， 预计 2025 年和 2026 年收入显著提升。关注电机设计与力矩传感器核心能 力在人体相关领域的迁移。 • 复合集流体产业化加速，各大厂商已下达 G 瓦级订单，材料厂商产能利用 率预计在 2025 年下半年满负荷运转，并启动大规模扩产。设备公司和材料 公司有望迎来投资机会。 • 艾立特发布智能底座，标志着战略调整，从工业机器人系统集成应用向人 形机器人生态建设转型。关注其在智能制造领域的进展及第二成长曲线的 挖掘。 • AIDC 基建中备电柴油发电机组板块行情持续，供需缺口短期难以缓解，量 价提升逻辑在招标中不断验证。玉柴国际合资公司业绩亮眼，自主品牌验 证成功并逐步批量出货。 • 工程机械行业需求呈现扁平化上行周期， ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for stocks over commodities and bonds, suggesting a preference for equities in the current market environment [5]. Core Insights - Recent market style rotation has shifted towards small-cap and growth styles, influenced by various macroeconomic factors and market sentiment [3]. - The industry rotation model recommends sectors such as steel, media, integrated communications, retail, and pharmaceuticals, based on liquidity and research performance [4]. - Active quantitative stock selection strategies have shown varied performance, with small-cap strategies outperforming others [6][10]. Summary by Sections Market Style Rotation - The current market style is leaning towards small-cap growth, with macro indicators slightly favoring small caps and market sentiment benefiting growth styles [3]. - Key drivers include a decline in new investor numbers and macroeconomic indicators [3]. Recommended Industries - The recommended sectors for March include steel, media, integrated communications, retail, and pharmaceuticals, selected based on an optimized industry rotation model [4]. - Media, integrated communications, and pharmaceuticals excel in liquidity, while steel scores high in research performance [4]. Asset Allocation Views - The report suggests a hierarchy of asset allocation: stocks are preferred over commodities, which in turn are preferred over bonds [5]. - The overall sentiment towards stocks is optimistic, supported by macroeconomic indicators, although caution is advised due to potential resistance in major indices [5]. Active Quantitative Stock Selection Strategies - The small-cap digging strategy has shown the best performance, with a 9.9% return in February, significantly outperforming small-cap indices [6]. - The investment behavior quality evaluation strategy has also performed well, yielding a 9.9% return in February and over 10% year-to-date [7][8]. Growth Strategy Performance - The ChatGPTBoost growth selection strategy yielded a 4.5% return in February, with a slight excess return over equity fund indices [9]. - The strategy focuses on identifying stocks with improving profitability and sustainable ROE [9]. Future Strategy Recommendations - Future recommendations emphasize the high valuation and market participation of small-cap and growth strategies, suggesting continued focus on these areas [11]. - Specific strategies to watch include small-cap digging and XGBoost for growth selection [11].

中金公司 加配化工龙头正当时 摘要 Q&A 为什么在当前时间点看好化工基础行业的龙头企业？ 当前看好化工基础行业龙头企业主要基于以下三个因素： 首先，房地产市场出 现了明显的企稳迹象。截止 2025 年 2 月 28 日，30 个大中城市商品房成交面积 累计同比增长 3%，十个核心城市二手房成交面积同比增长 45%。由于化工材料 主要用于新房和二手房装修，因此房地产市场的回暖对化工需求形成了显著支 撑。此外，各地政府在首付和利率方面推出了一系列优惠政策，进一步推动了 房地产市场的复苏，从而带动了对化工产品的需求。 其次，两会即将召开，政 策层面可能会出台一系列有利于化工行业发展的措施。李强总理在二月份常务 会议上指出，将优化产业布局，推动落后低效产能退出，增加高端产能供给。 这些政策预期将在两会期间或之后逐步落实，对炼油、乙烯及部分化工领域产 • 房地产市场企稳回暖，十个核心城市二手房成交面积显著增长，叠加各地 政府的优惠政策，有效支撑了化工材料的需求，尤其是在新房和二手房装 修领域。 • 两会政策预期利好化工行业，优化产业布局，淘汰落后产能，增加高端产 能供给，尤其对炼油、乙烯等领域产生积极影响，财政政策稳 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a cautious outlook for the electricity sector in 2025, indicating a potential weakening compared to 2024, with a focus on both pressures and opportunities in the market [1][4]. Core Insights - The electricity sector is expected to face pressures from a slowdown in electricity demand growth, projected at 5.5% to 6% for 2025, down from a compound annual growth rate of 7% in previous years [2][3]. - The report highlights three main opportunities within the sector: strong policy support for new energy, stricter market capitalization management for state-owned enterprises, and the potential for long-term investments in quality assets during market corrections [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Electricity Sector Overview - The report discusses the overall electricity market dynamics, noting that the installed capacity growth has significantly outpaced electricity demand growth from 2021 to 2024, leading to a more relaxed supply-demand balance [2][3]. - A comprehensive decline in electricity prices has been observed, particularly affecting thermal power, which has implications for the revenue of electricity companies in 2025 [3][4]. New Energy Opportunities - The report emphasizes the ongoing government support for the new energy sector, suggesting that policies will continue to evolve towards high-quality development rather than rapid expansion [6][7]. - The introduction of a new pricing mechanism for renewable energy projects is expected to stabilize profitability and encourage investment in the sector [7][8]. Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - The report identifies a shift in market sentiment, with increased risk appetite among investors, which may lead to reduced demand for defensive assets like electricity stocks [4][5]. - It suggests that investors should focus on undervalued stocks in the renewable energy sector, particularly those with strong fundamentals and potential for recovery as policies are implemented [9][10]. Long-term Growth Potential - The report highlights the potential for offshore wind energy as a promising investment area, with expectations for significant project approvals and stable returns [10][11]. - It also discusses the importance of nuclear power in the long-term energy mix, projecting stable growth and profitability for leading nuclear companies [16][17]. Solar Energy Insights - The solar energy sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in demand, with projections for growth in installations despite potential short-term fluctuations [19][20]. - The report notes that technological advancements and competitive dynamics will play a crucial role in shaping the future of the solar market [27][28]. Supply Chain and Production Trends - The report indicates that supply chain dynamics are improving, with a focus on maintaining production levels amid market fluctuations [24][25]. - It also highlights the importance of new technologies in enhancing production efficiency and reducing costs in the solar sector [31][32].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the market, particularly highlighting a structural bull market driven by sentiment and expectations, with a technical bull market defined by a price increase exceeding 20% [4][5][6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing revaluation of Chinese assets, with significant attention on foreign capital flows and their potential impact on market dynamics [2][22]. - It identifies three key characteristics of the current market: sentiment-driven, expectation-driven, and structurally focused, suggesting that the market is heavily influenced by a few leading technology stocks [4][6][19]. - The report also discusses the importance of understanding the structural nature of the market, where only a small percentage of stocks are outperforming the index, indicating a narrow base for the market rally [5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The market has shown a strong upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index reaching new highs, particularly driven by technology stocks [2][3]. - Recent fluctuations in capital flows, including significant inflows and subsequent outflows, reflect investor sentiment and market volatility [3][8]. Foreign Capital Dynamics - Foreign capital has been increasingly active, with notable inflows observed, particularly in the technology sector, suggesting a potential for further investment [9][10]. - The report estimates that foreign capital allocation to Chinese stocks is currently low, indicating substantial room for growth if conditions improve [12][13]. Structural Market Characteristics - The report highlights that the current market is characterized by a structural bull market, where a limited number of stocks are driving the overall index performance [5][6]. - It notes that understanding the dynamics of these leading stocks is crucial for investors aiming to outperform the market [6][19]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with clear structural trends, particularly technology, while being cautious of market sentiment fluctuations [15][21]. - The report suggests a balanced approach, advocating for strategic entry during market dips and careful monitoring of market conditions [15][21].

Investment Ratings - Sanhua is rated as Buy, LeaderDrive and Moons' Electric are rated Neutral, and Best Precision is downgraded to Neutral from Buy [2][4][5][20]. Core Insights - The report updates market share expectations for key humanoid robot supply chain stocks, reflecting a more optimistic outlook for Sanhua, while indicating increased competition for Best Precision [1][4]. - Sanhua is expected to achieve a market share of 70% in the high-spec humanoid robot actuator assembly business by 2025E-30E, up from a previous estimate of 50% [2]. - LeaderDrive's net income forecasts for 2024E-30E have been revised up by up to 21% due to its entry into the PRS business, projecting a 5% global market share [4]. - Best Precision's long-term global PRS market share forecast has been revised down to 10% from 15% due to anticipated competition [4][21]. - Moons' Electric is expected to see an 8% increase in net income forecasts for 2024E-30E, driven by potential upgrades in content value [5]. Company Summaries Sanhua - Sanhua is a leader in HVAC control and thermal management components, with a strong growth potential in the auto/EV sector [33]. - The 12-month target price for Sanhua is set at Rmb36.5, based on a 21x 2030E P/E [34]. LeaderDrive - LeaderDrive is recognized as a domestic leader in China's harmonic reduction gear market, with a focus on expanding its applications [41]. - The 12-month target price for LeaderDrive is Rmb134.6, based on a 45x 2030E P/E [42]. Best Precision - Best Precision aims to become a competitive supplier of planetary roller screws for humanoid robots, with a projected 10% global market share starting in 2027E [37]. - The 12-month target price for Best Precision is Rmb28.2, based on a 32x 2030E P/E [38]. Moons' Electric - Moons' Electric is positioned to become a key player in the humanoid robot coreless motor supply chain, with expectations for increased revenues from coreless motor applications [45]. - The 12-month target price for Moons' Electric is Rmb53.3, based on a 37x 2030E P/E [46].