Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4]. Core Insights - The company has launched a share incentive plan to attract and retain core talent, reflecting confidence in long-term development. The overseas store expansion is progressing smoothly, with sales in various domestic locations performing well. The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been raised, with expected net profits of 1.303 billion, 2.302 billion, and 3.230 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 7.74, 13.67, and 19.18 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 55.2, 31.2, and 22.3 times for the respective years [4][5]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from 1.294 billion yuan in 2022 to 7.886 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 148.0%. By 2026, revenue is expected to reach 17.452 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 38.2% [8]. - Net profit is forecasted to increase from 95 million yuan in 2022 to 1.303 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 213.0%. By 2026, net profit is expected to be 3.230 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 40.3% [8]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 41.6% from 2024 to 2026, while the net margin is projected to improve from 16.5% in 2024 to 18.5% in 2026 [8]. - Return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to rise from 21.3% in 2024 to 29.4% in 2026 [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4]. Core Insights - The company has launched a share incentive plan to attract and retain core talent, reflecting confidence in long-term development. The overseas store expansion is progressing smoothly, with sales in various domestic locations performing well. The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been raised, with expected net profits of 1.303 billion, 2.302 billion, and 3.230 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 7.74, 13.67, and 19.18 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 55.2, 31.2, and 22.3 times for the respective years [4][5]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue is projected to grow significantly from 1.294 billion yuan in 2022 to 17.452 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.3%, 145.7%, 148.0%, 60.1%, and 38.2% respectively [8]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 95 million yuan in 2022 to 3.230 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -16.5%, 340.4%, 213.0%, 76.7%, and 40.3% respectively [8]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable at around 41.6%, while the net margin is expected to improve from 7.3% in 2022 to 18.5% in 2026 [8]. - Return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to rise from 10.9% in 2022 to 29.4% in 2026 [8]. - The diluted EPS is expected to grow from 0.69 yuan in 2022 to 19.18 yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 619.0 to 22.3 times [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Insights - The company's same-store sales decline has narrowed, and store costs continue to optimize. The core operating profit for Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with guidance for 2025 indicating that the core operating profit margin will remain at least flat or show positive year-on-year growth. The company maintains a robust shareholder return budget, which serves as a safety net for dividends [4]. - The company plans to open 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with a total of 16,395 stores by the end of 2024, including 11,648 KFC and 3,724 Pizza Hut locations [5][4]. - The company reported Q4 2024 revenue of $2.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and a net profit of $115 million, up 18% year-on-year. The core operating profit was $150 million, reflecting a 35% increase, driven by a decrease in personnel costs, property rents, and other operating costs [4]. Financial Projections - The company expects revenues of $11.84 billion, $12.71 billion, and $13.63 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 4.7%, 7.4%, and 7.2% [6]. - The projected net profit for the same years is $976 million, $1.056 billion, and $1.139 billion, with growth rates of 7.1%, 8.2%, and 7.8% [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be $2.58, $2.87, and $3.18 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]. Operational Performance - KFC and Pizza Hut's restaurant operating profit margins for Q4 2024 were 13.3% and 9.3%, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 1.3 and 2.0 percentage points [4]. - The same-store sales decline for KFC was 1% in Q4 2024, with transaction volume increasing by 3% and average ticket size decreasing by 4%. For Pizza Hut, the same-store sales decline was 2%, with transaction volume up 9% and average ticket size down 10% [4]. Shareholder Returns - The company returned $248 million to shareholders in Q4 2024, with a total of $1.5 billion for the year. The quarterly dividend increased by 50% to $0.24 per share, which will continue into 2025 [4].

三生制药（1530.HK） 开展双抗 ADC 联用研究，研发矩阵储备丰富 | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 6859.4 | 7815.9 | 8863.3 | 9988.9 | 11407.3 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 7.5 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 12.7 | 14.2 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1914.9 | 1549.2 | 2004.9 | 2212.3 | 2475.7 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 16.0 | -19.1 | 29.4 | 10.3 | 11.9 | | ROE（%） | 14.8 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 12.4 | 12.4 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | | P/E（倍） | 7.1 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 5.5 | | P/B（倍） | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Insights - The company's same-store sales decline has narrowed, and store costs continue to optimize. The core operating profit for Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with guidance for 2025 indicating that the core operating profit margin will remain at least flat or show positive year-on-year growth. The company maintains a robust shareholder return budget, providing a safety net for dividends [4]. - The company plans to open 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with a total of 16,395 stores by the end of 2024, including 11,648 KFC and 3,724 Pizza Hut locations [5][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of $2.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was $115 million, up 18% year-on-year, and core operating profit was $150 million, up 35% year-on-year [4]. - The company expects revenues of $11.84 billion, $12.71 billion, and $13.63 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 4.7%, 7.4%, and 7.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be $976 million, $1.06 billion, and $1.14 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 7.1%, 8.2%, and 7.8% [6][4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be $2.58, $2.87, and $3.18 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]. Shareholder Returns - The company has maintained strong dividend and buyback efforts, with a total shareholder return of $1.5 billion for the year and a 50% increase in quarterly dividends to $0.24 per share for Q4 2024, which will continue into 2025 [4]. - The total shareholder return plan for 2025 and 2026 remains at $3 billion, representing 8.3% of the market capitalization of HKD 1,404 billion [4]. Store Performance - The operating profit margins for KFC and Pizza Hut in Q4 2024 were 13.3% and 9.3%, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 1.3 and 2.0 percentage points [4]. - Same-store sales for KFC declined by 1% in Q4 2024, while Pizza Hut's same-store sales declined by 2%. However, transaction volumes increased by 3% and 9% for KFC and Pizza Hut, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for HSBC Holdings PLC (5 HK) [1]. Core Insights - HSBC Holdings PLC reported a revenue decline of 11.2% year-on-year, which was below the consensus forecast of -1.9%. The main reason for this decline was a significant drop in non-interest income, which fell by 37.1% year-on-year, contrasting with a consensus expectation of a 12.1% increase. Net interest income decreased by 1.2%, but this was better than the expected decline of 9.9% [3][4][6]. - The cost-to-income ratio increased by 1.7 percentage points to 50.2%, which was better than the consensus estimate of 53.7%. The net profit attributable to common shareholders turned positive at $197 million, although this was below the consensus estimate of $597 million [3][4][6]. - Customer loans increased by 0.2% year-on-year, which was below the expected growth of 1.9%. Total deposits rose by 2.7%, exceeding the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 2.1% [3][4][6]. - The total provision for credit losses was $1.362 billion, up 32.1% year-on-year, which was higher than the consensus estimate of $895 million, which anticipated a decrease of 13.2% [3][4][6]. - The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio increased by 0.1 percentage points to 14.9%, slightly below the expected 15.0%. The return on equity (ROE) for FY24 decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 13.6%, which was above the consensus estimate of 13.4% [3][4][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue and Profit - Revenue for Q4 2024 was $11.564 billion, down 11.2% year-on-year, compared to a consensus estimate of -1.9%. Non-interest income was particularly weak, falling 37.1% year-on-year [3][4][6]. Business Segment Performance - Wealth and Personal Banking revenue grew by 59.6%, exceeding the expected 50.2%. Commercial Banking revenue increased by 1.3%, surpassing the forecast of a 1.6% decline. Global Banking and Markets revenue rose by 17.4%, better than the expected 9.0% [3][4][6]. Asset Quality and Provisions - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased to 2.18%, better than the expected 2.39%. The total provision for credit losses was significantly higher than anticipated, indicating a cautious approach to asset quality [3][4][6]. Capital Adequacy and Returns - The CET1 ratio was reported at 14.9%, slightly below expectations, while the ROE was better than consensus, indicating a relatively strong capital position despite the challenges faced [3][4][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Jiufang Zhitu Holdings (09636.HK) for the first time [8]. Core Views - Jiufang Zhitu Holdings is positioned to leverage the growth of the A-share market and AI technology to expand its business, with a strong focus on online investment advisory services [8]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure and a management team with extensive experience in finance and investment advisory, which enhances operational efficiency [8]. - The company has shown robust revenue growth, with a five-year CAGR of 48% from 2019 to 2023, driven by online investment education and financial software services [8]. - The market for online high-end investment education services is expected to grow significantly, with Jiufang Zhitu holding a leading market share of 13.8% in the securities investment consulting industry [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Strategic Development and Steady Growth - Jiufang Zhitu Holdings has established itself as a leader in online investment advisory services, having obtained its securities investment advisory qualification in 1998 [16]. - The company underwent a strategic transformation and business expansion after being acquired by Silver Lake Holdings in 2017, leading to its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2023 [16]. - The company focuses on providing comprehensive investment advisory services, including investment strategies and risk management [16]. 2. Market Outlook and Growth Potential - The rapid growth of personal financial assets in China has led to an increasing demand for online investment advisory services [36]. - The market for online investment decision-making solutions is projected to grow from 198 billion yuan in 2017 to 872 billion yuan by 2026, with Jiufang Zhitu positioned to capture a larger market share [36]. - The number of personal investors in China has increased significantly, creating a larger customer base for online investment services [36]. 3. Technology-Driven Product Development - Jiufang Zhitu is enhancing its product matrix through technology, including the integration of AI in its services [48]. - The company has established a media flow pool to attract customers through various channels, including traditional media and internet platforms [48]. - The company is focusing on developing lightweight products to penetrate lower-tier markets and expand its customer base [48]. 4. Financial Performance and Valuation - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projected net profits of 270 million yuan in 2024, 961 million yuan in 2025, and 1.263 billion yuan in 2026 [8]. - The report forecasts a strong recovery in the company's performance starting from the third quarter of 2024, driven by favorable market conditions [8]. - Jiufang Zhitu's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 41.68 in 2024 to 8.92 in 2026, indicating an attractive valuation for investors [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][6][22] Core Viewpoints - Meituan's core competitiveness in the food delivery sector remains strong, with no significant competitors observed in the short term. The entry of new players may provide good buying opportunities for the market [6][22] - The report highlights DoorDash's strong growth and AI initiatives, which could serve as a reference for Meituan's own AI strategies [4][10] - The impact of JD's entry into the food delivery market is expected to be limited, as JD's focus is on high-quality dining merchants, which may not significantly disrupt Meituan's market position [5][21] Summary by Sections Company Overview - DoorDash has become the absolute leader in the U.S. food delivery market, achieving a market share of 63% as of November 2024, with revenues of $10.72 billion in 2024, representing a 24% year-on-year growth [4][8][7] - In Q4 2024, DoorDash reported revenues of $2.87 billion, a 25% increase year-on-year, and a GAAP net profit of $141 million, compared to a loss of $154 million in the same period last year [8][4] AI Initiatives - DoorDash has been actively exploring AI applications, including an AI voice ordering service launched in August 2023, which enhances restaurant operational efficiency and sales [10][13] - The introduction of AI tools like DashAI and SafeChat+ aims to optimize user experience and improve communication safety between customers and delivery personnel [14][10] Competitive Landscape - JD's entry into the food delivery market is characterized by a focus on high-end dining merchants, which may not significantly impact Meituan's existing customer base and market share [5][21] - The report suggests that JD's food delivery service is more of an auxiliary feature within its instant retail strategy, and its impact on Meituan is expected to be limited in the current stable market environment [21][5] Financial Projections - The revenue forecasts for Meituan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 338.2 billion, 391.4 billion, and 445.7 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profit estimates of 43 billion, 52.2 billion, and 58.5 billion yuan [6][22] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 23, 19, and 17 times for the respective years [6][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 57.74 HKD [4][10][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share of 0.84, 1.06, and 1.37 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting an upward adjustment in revenue and gross margin forecasts due to the positive industry outlook and the company's strategic initiatives [4][10]. - The automotive segment has shown strong performance with monthly deliveries exceeding 20,000 units, maintaining a long delivery cycle of 6-7 months [9][10]. - The integration of the DeepSeek large model into the company's operating system enhances its AI capabilities, allowing for various applications such as code writing and logical reasoning [9][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 362,463 million CNY, 406,553 million CNY, and 475,075 million CNY respectively, indicating a growth rate of 34%, 12%, and 17% [6][10]. - Operating profit is forecasted to be 22,944 million CNY, 29,430 million CNY, and 38,863 million CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with significant growth rates of 15%, 28%, and 32% [6][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 20,996 million CNY, 26,528 million CNY, and 34,418 million CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 20%, 26%, and 30% [6][10]. - The gross margin is projected to be 21.0%, 21.8%, and 22.7% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, while the net margin is expected to be 5.8%, 6.5%, and 7.2% [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Mao Geping [6] Core Insights - Mao Geping is a rare high-end domestic beauty brand that leverages the unique "light and shadow aesthetics" concept to develop makeup and skincare products, creating a competitive moat through offline experiential makeup services. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at 893 million, 1.172 billion, and 1.467 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.82, 2.39, and 2.99 CNY, leading to a PE ratio of 37.4, 28.5, and 22.7 times [6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Mao Geping is a high-end domestic beauty brand with over 20 years of industry experience, evolving through three stages: initial brand creation (2000-2007), market deepening (2008-2018), and rapid expansion (2019-present) [23] - The company has established a strong brand presence and diversified its product offerings, including makeup, skincare, and professional training services [23][24] Financial Performance - The company has shown consistent high double-digit growth in revenue and profit, with 2022-2024H1 revenues of 1.829 billion, 2.886 billion, and 1.972 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.0%, 57.8%, and 41.0% respectively. Net profits for the same period were 338 million, 639 million, and 492 million CNY, with growth rates of 6.4%, 88.0%, and 41.0% [31] - The gross margin has remained high, averaging around 84.8% from 2022 to 2024H1, while the net margin has improved, reaching 25.0% in 2024H1 [31][36] Market Growth Potential - The Chinese makeup market is still developing, with a significant gap compared to overseas markets. The market size for makeup in China was approximately 5,798 billion CNY in 2023, with makeup accounting for only about 20.1% of the beauty market [46] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the high-end makeup segment, as domestic brands like Mao Geping are positioned to capture market share amid rising consumer interest in local products [46][49] Competitive Advantages - Mao Geping's unique business model combines online and offline channels, with a strong focus on high-end department store sales and a growing online presence. The company has established a solid customer base through its experiential services and high-quality products [7][41] - The brand's core strengths include its professional IP, aesthetic design, and high-end channel development, which create a competitive barrier in the market [7][8]