[Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_ 单位 Finance] :人民币百万元 | | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | | 1,174 | 6,497 | 15,815 | 26,691 | 42,426 | | 增长率（ | ） % | 65.6% | 453.2% | 143.4% | 68.8% | 59.0% | | EBITDA | | -374 | 2,533 | 4,959 | 8,655 | 14,780 | | 归母净利润 | | -452 | 2,059 | 4,702 | 8,444 | 14,408 | | 增长率（ | % ） | - | - | 128.3% | 79.6% | 70.6% | 盈利预测： | 数据来源：公司财务报表，广发证券发展研究中心 | | --- | | Table_Invest] [公司评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格 | 1099.00 元 | | 合 ...

证券研究报告 亚翔集成 (603929 CH) 新加坡市场利润率再超预期 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 3 月 | 13 日│中国内地 | 建筑施工 | 目标价(人民币): | 235.62 | 亚翔集成发布 25 年年报，全年实现营收 49.07 亿元（yoy-8.81%），归母 净利 8.92 亿元（yoy+40.3%），超出我们此前预期（归母净利 7.91 亿元）， 主因公司新加坡市场新签大项目下半年陆续进入结算，而订单利润率表现持 续超出此前预期。单四季度看，营业收入为 17.98 亿元（yoy+86.7%， qoq+26.13%），归母净利润 4.5 亿（yoy+128.4%，qoq+59.69%）。考虑 到公司充分受益于全球半导体产业投资景气，头部企业扩产不断加码，公司 新签订单有望继续上行，同时大项目利润率表现出高水平和良好的持续性， 维持"买入"评级。 2H25 新加坡公司毛利率/净利率 31.8%/27.7% 考虑到新加坡市场毛利率表现超出我们此前预期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 462.40 CNY [6][13]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 6.03 billion CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 44%, and a net profit of 3.21 billion CNY, which is a 75.8% increase [13]. - The increase in revenue is attributed to heightened market activity and a rise in user engagement with the company's app, leading to increased advertising revenue [2][13]. - The integration of AI into the company's operations is expected to drive sustainable growth, with a focus on enhancing investment research, risk management, and marketing capabilities [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2028 are as follows: 4.19 billion CNY (2024), 6.03 billion CNY (2025), 7.54 billion CNY (2026), 8.68 billion CNY (2027), and 9.78 billion CNY (2028), with respective growth rates of 17.5%, 44.0%, 25.0%, 15.1%, and 12.7% [4]. - Net profit (attributable to shareholders) is forecasted to be 1.82 billion CNY (2024), 3.21 billion CNY (2025), 4.42 billion CNY (2026), 5.12 billion CNY (2027), and 5.75 billion CNY (2028), with growth rates of 30.0%, 75.8%, 37.9%, 15.8%, and 12.4% respectively [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 8.22 CNY, 9.52 CNY, and 10.70 CNY respectively [13]. Market Performance - The stock has a market capitalization of 174.53 billion CNY and a current price of 324.64 CNY, with a target price indicating significant upside potential [6][7]. - The stock has traded within a range of 238.17 CNY to 413.14 CNY over the past 52 weeks [7]. Business Segments - Revenue from advertising and value-added telecommunications services saw significant increases, with year-on-year growth rates of 71% and 21% respectively [13]. - The company’s app reached 38.75 million monthly active users in January 2026, marking a 13.4% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand for financial information services [13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company is a pioneer in China's independent computing industry, focusing on CPU and integrated systems, and is expected to benefit from the deepening of the Xinchuang industry and the explosive demand for AI [2][10]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with China Electronics being the largest shareholder, holding 39.35% of the shares [10][25]. - The company has made significant contributions to the development of China's independent computing industry, having created several industry firsts [10][24]. Financial Summary - The projected total revenue for 2025-2027 is expected to be 151.80 billion, 170.15 billion, and 188.14 billion yuan, respectively, with a corresponding net profit of -0.56 billion, 1.28 billion, and 2.59 billion yuan [4][18]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same period is projected to be -0.02, 0.04, and 0.08 yuan [18]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow at rates of 10.00%, 15.00%, and 12.00% for its computing industry business from 2025 to 2027 [14][16]. Revenue Breakdown - The computing industry business is projected to generate revenues of 117.72 billion, 135.37 billion, and 151.62 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with gross margins of 15.00%, 17.00%, and 17.00% [14][16]. - The system equipment business is expected to see revenues of 25.49 billion, 25.76 billion, and 27.05 billion yuan, with gross margins of 14.00%, 15.00%, and 16.00% [15][16]. - Other business revenues are projected to be 8.59 billion, 9.02 billion, and 9.47 billion yuan, with gross margins of 31.50%, 34.00%, and 36.00% [15][16]. Valuation Analysis - The report uses both PS and PB valuation methods, estimating a reasonable valuation of 740.51 billion yuan and a target price of 22.96 yuan for the company [19][22][23]. - The PS valuation method suggests a valuation based on an average of 11.59 times PS for comparable companies, while the PB valuation method suggests a valuation of 6 times PB [20][22]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a key player in the Xinchuang and AI computing sectors, focusing on developing core products and technologies for information security and infrastructure [10][24]. - The company has invested in Feiteng, a leading domestic CPU developer, to enhance its capabilities in high-end chip design and production [10][32][35]. - The company aims to leverage opportunities in the Xinchuang market and solidify its integrated system business [10][14].

资管见长，弹性领先 瑞达期货(002961) | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 肖尧(分析师) | 021-23185695 | xiaoyao3@gtht.com | S0880525040115 | 本报告导读： 瑞达期货的核心看点则在于资管业务优势显著，CTA以主观策略为主，竞争力根源 在于团队稳定和体系化运作，公司当前 CTA规模明显增长。在高波动市场环境下， 资管端业绩报酬弹性、经纪业务修复以及创新业务拓展有望共同驱动公司盈利释放。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万） | 926 | 1,810 | 1,880 | 2,290 | 2,633 | | (+/-)% ...

证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | 半导体 涨价提利，多元布局迎新机 ——国科微深度报告 投资要点 ❑ 主业稳健，高端化提振营收弹性 国科微作为国内领先的 AI 与多媒体芯片设计企业，当前主营业务布局稳健。公 司在超高清智能显示（机顶盒）、智慧视觉（安防）等板块凭借核心技术和产品 渗透，不断提升市场份额，预计将持续受益于这些领域的行业需求提升与客户结 构升级。同时，信创业务有望带动公司固态存储主控芯片等相关产品需求回升， 增强营收弹性。公司下游以安防等为主，国补变动对公司影响较小。 ❑ 产品涨价，毛利率有望持续提升 公司下游安防市场和机顶盒产品为主。2026 年 1 月 20 号，国科微发布涨价通知 函，计划对合封 KGD 产品进行价格调整，涨价幅度 40%~80%；公司部分产品 合封存储销售，存储涨价同步利好业绩，在内存涨价带动 soc 涨价过程中，公司 毛利率有望持续提升，盈利能力也有望持续改善。 ❑ 多元布局，长期发展前景广阔 中长期来看，国科微围绕主控芯片 AI 升级、自主 Wi-Fi6 芯片和汽车 SerDes 芯 片积极布局。公司 AI 芯片产品线不断完善，自研 Wi-Fi6 芯片即将导入主流客 户， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.68, 0.79, and 0.87 RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18, 15, and 14 times [4]. Core Insights - The paper industry is experiencing a new wave of price increases, with several companies raising prices for their products, indicating a potential recovery in overall profitability for the sector [2]. - The bottom of the industry cycle appears to be confirmed, with limited further decline in pulp and paper prices anticipated. The release of new production capacity in the decorative paper sector and weak demand have impacted pricing and profitability [2][3]. - The company has a strong competitive position in the specialty paper industry, characterized by high barriers to entry and a differentiated product and customer base. Its advantages in wood pulp procurement and cost control contribute to a profit margin above the industry average [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Analysis - The report highlights that the paper industry is undergoing significant price adjustments, with major companies increasing prices for various paper products. This trend is expected to enhance the industry's profitability [2]. - The report notes that the release of new production capacity in the decorative paper sector has led to increased supply, which, combined with weak demand, has negatively affected pricing and profitability [2]. Company Performance - The company is projected to see revenues of 36.42 billion, 41.43 billion, and 44.82 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of -3.35%, +13.74%, and +8.19%, respectively. Net profit is expected to be 3.76 billion, 4.42 billion, and 4.86 billion RMB, with growth rates of -19.82%, +17.49%, and +10.01% [4][9]. - The company is positioned as a leader in high-end decorative paper, benefiting from intelligent production and centralized procurement, which provide significant cost advantages [3]. Financial Projections - The report provides detailed financial forecasts, including expected revenue and net profit figures for the coming years, indicating a recovery trajectory post-2025 as new capacity stabilizes [4][9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 10.25% in 2025 to 15.66% in 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability and operational efficiency [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TCL Smart Home (002668.SZ) is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The company has shown steady improvement in operational quality and has initiated dividend payouts to shareholders, with a proposed cash dividend of 2.0379 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a payout ratio of 19.7% and a dividend yield of 2.0% based on the closing price on March 10 [1][4] - In 2025, TCL achieved a revenue of 18.53 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.12 billion yuan, up 10.2% year-on-year, indicating a solid operational performance despite challenges in the domestic market [1][4] - The company is focusing on its core business, which has led to improved operational quality and is expected to benefit from synergies with TCL's broader operations [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, TCL reported a revenue of 4.19 billion yuan, down 5.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 150 million yuan, down 24.8% year-on-year, primarily due to non-recurring losses related to a settlement with Gao Rong Capital [1] - The overall revenue for 2025 was 18.53 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.12 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.2% increase compared to the previous year [1][5] - The company’s gross margin improved by 2.2 percentage points to 25.2% for the year, with Q4 gross margin reaching 27.1% [3] Market Trends - The refrigerator export market showed resilience, with a 2.5% increase in export value for 2025, and a notable 1.3% growth in Q4 [2] - The export structure of refrigerators is improving, with the share of inverter refrigerators rising by 5 percentage points to 49%, contributing to higher average prices [2] Future Projections - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2026-2028, expecting net profits of 1.24 billion, 1.34 billion, and 1.46 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 9%, and 8% [4][5] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 9, 8, and 7 times respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4][5]

资管见长，弹性领先 瑞达期货(002961) 瑞达期货更新报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 肖尧(分析师) | 021-23185695 | xiaoyao3@gtht.com | S0880525040115 | 本报告导读： 瑞达期货的核心看点则在于资管业务优势显著，CTA以主观策略为主，竞争力根源 在于团队稳定和体系化运作，公司当前 CTA规模明显增长。在高波动市场环境下， 资管端业绩报酬弹性、经纪业务修复以及创新业务拓展有望共同驱动公司盈利释放。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万） | 926 | 1,810 | 1,880 | 2,290 | 2,633 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.68, 0.79, and 0.87 RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18, 15, and 14 times [4]. Core Insights - The paper industry is experiencing a new wave of price increases, with several companies raising prices for their products, indicating a potential recovery in overall profitability for the sector [2]. - The bottom of the industry cycle appears to be confirmed, with limited further decline in pulp and paper prices anticipated. The release of new production capacity in the decorative paper sector and weak demand have impacted pricing and profitability [2][3]. - The company has a strong competitive advantage in the specialty paper sector, characterized by high barriers to entry and a differentiated product and customer base. Its cost control and production capabilities are superior, leading to higher profit margins compared to industry averages [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Analysis - The report highlights that the paper industry is undergoing significant price adjustments, with major companies increasing prices for various paper products. This trend is expected to enhance the industry's profitability [2]. - The report notes that the release of new production capacity in the decorative paper sector has led to increased supply, which, combined with weak demand, has negatively affected pricing and profitability [2]. Company Performance - The company is projected to see revenues of 36.42 billion, 41.43 billion, and 44.82 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of -3.35%, +13.74%, and +8.19%, respectively. Net profit is expected to be 3.76 billion, 4.42 billion, and 4.86 billion RMB, with growth rates of -19.82%, +17.49%, and +10.01% [4][9]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the high-end decorative paper market, benefiting from intelligent production and centralized procurement, which provide significant cost advantages [3]. Financial Projections - The report provides detailed financial forecasts, including expected revenues and net profits for the coming years, indicating a recovery trajectory post-2025 as new capacity stabilizes and demand improves [4][9].