Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.89 billion RMB for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.99 billion RMB, up 39.8% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of asset impairment losses in the same period last year [1][2] - The company aims to increase its business volume and market share despite facing short-term pressure from price competition in the industry. The company is expected to leverage its position as an industry leader to capture market share by lowering per-package prices [1][4] - The company’s market share decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 18.9%, while the average revenue per package fell by 7.8% to 1.25 RMB due to intense price competition [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total express package volume of 8.54 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, slightly below the industry growth rate of 21.6% [1][2] - The adjusted net profit per package for Q1 2025 was 0.26 RMB, down 14.7% year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in per-package revenue [3] - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 52.41 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.35% [10] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 8.18 billion RMB, reflecting a 17% decrease from previous estimates due to the competitive pricing environment [4] - The target price has been adjusted to 160.1 HKD (20.5 USD), a 19% reduction from the previous target price of 197.6 HKD (25.4 USD) [4][6] - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 14.5x for 2025E, which is a discount compared to its historical average due to increased industry competition [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that ZTO Express achieved an adjusted net profit of 2.259 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The operating cash flow net amount was 2.363 billion yuan, up 16.3% year-on-year [2][3] - The company reported a revenue of 10.892 billion yuan in Q1 2025, which is a 9.4% increase compared to the same period last year. The express service revenue was 10.122 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.5% year-on-year growth [3][4] - ZTO Express handled 8.539 billion parcels in Q1 2025, marking a 19.1% year-on-year increase, maintaining a market share of approximately 18.9%, which is the highest in the industry [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the adjusted net profit was 2.259 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%. The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.213 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [3] - The single ticket express revenue decreased by 8.0% year-on-year to 1.19 yuan, attributed to intensified industry competition and changes in cargo structure [4] - The single ticket express cost was approximately 0.68 yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, benefiting from improved economies of scale and route optimization [4] Growth Outlook - ZTO Express aims for a package volume guidance of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion parcels in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% to 24%, which is expected to further consolidate its leading market position [5] - The report suggests that the express delivery industry still has significant growth potential, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce [6][7] - The company is expected to maintain a strong cash flow and profitability, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 10.324 billion, 11.655 billion, and 13.388 billion yuan, respectively [8]

小米集团-W(01810) 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 22 日 小米战略新品发布会前瞻 ——小米集团点评报告 本次发布会手机芯片 SoC 芯片玄戒 o1 将亮相，小米成为继苹果、高通、联发科 后全球第四家发布自主研发设计 3nm 制程手机芯片的企业。雷军在官方微博中 提及，小米从 2014 年开启手机芯片研发之旅，期间小芯片陆续面世，如快充芯 片、电池管理芯片、影像芯片、天线增强芯片等，并于 2021 年重新开始研发 SoC，并制定了至少投入 10 年，至少投资 500 亿的长期计划。截至 25 年 4 月底 玄戒累计研发投入已经超过 135 亿人民币，预计 25 年研发投入超过 60 亿，研发 团队超过 2500 人。 ❑ 将发布小米 15S Pro，搭载玄戒 o1，产品体验值得期待，也为小米产品在 AI 时 代保持竞争力提供基础。 我们能从苹果和华为的案例看到，搭载自研芯片+OS 的产品能带来差异化的产品 体验，并提升品牌价值。在"小米终端+玄戒 SoC+澎湃 OS+MiMo 推理模型"的 全自研产品矩阵下，可以期待 15S Pro 带来超预期的产品体验和销量。 ❑ YU7 发布会有望开启小订，时 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is actively adjusting its operational strategy, focusing on a "green health strategy" to enhance brand recognition among consumers and explore new store formats [7] - The company aims to optimize existing stores and introduce new health-focused products, responding to consumer demand for healthier options [7] - The company is expanding its overseas business and steadily developing its bottled beverage segment, with a 10% year-on-year growth in bottled beverage revenue for 2024 [7] - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is set at 5.2 billion, 5.3 billion, and 5.5 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profit expectations of -130 million, 500,000, and 5.6 million yuan [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 5.164 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20.33% [1] - The company anticipates a net profit of -917.29 million yuan for 2024, with a significant recovery expected in subsequent years [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -0.54 yuan in 2024 to 0.03 yuan in 2027 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 342.72 in 2026 and 31.73 in 2027, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express [4][3]. Core Views - The company reported a business volume of 8.54 billion pieces in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, but market share decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 18.9% [1]. - The focus for 2025 will shift towards increasing market share, with a target business volume of 40.8 to 42.2 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 20-24% [1]. - The company experienced a decline in single-ticket revenue, dropping from 1.36 CNY in Q1 2024 to 1.25 CNY in Q1 2025, primarily due to increased subsidies and a decrease in single-ticket weight [2]. - Operating expenses significantly decreased to 283 million CNY in Q1 2025 from 735 million CNY in Q1 2024, largely due to government subsidies and tax refunds [2]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with a strategy shift back to prioritizing market share, which may lead to slower profit growth in the short term [3]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for 2025 is 9.52 billion CNY, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.9X, 9.2X, and 8.2X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 38.42 billion CNY in 2023 to 49.90 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 12.68% [8]. - The net profit margin is projected to be 19.24% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 15.94% [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba [3] Core Views - The report expresses confidence in the profitability growth of Alibaba's Taotian Group and the long-term trends and competitive landscape of its cloud business [1][2] - Taotian Group's FY25Q4 revenue and profit exceeded market expectations, with customer management revenue growing by 12% year-on-year, surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 3.89% [1] - Alibaba Cloud's FY25Q4 revenue grew by 18% year-on-year, although adjusted EBITA margin declined by 1.9 percentage points to 8%, falling short of Bloomberg consensus of 14.25% [2] Summary by Sections Taotian Group Business - Taotian Group's FY25Q4 adjusted EBITA increased by 8% year-on-year, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 6.2% [1] - The growth in GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) is expected to potentially exceed expectations, driven by three catalysts: collaboration with instant retail, external link access from Xiaohongshu, and AI-enhanced advertising effectiveness [1] Cloud Business - Short-term supply pressures are anticipated to cause performance fluctuations, but the long-term industry trends and competitive landscape remain promising [2] - The strategic focus on cloud and AI is prioritized, with expectations that the upward drivers will eventually outweigh the downward pressures from R&D investments and depreciation [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for FY2026-2028 are 1,087.93 billion, 1,165.38 billion, and 1,249.82 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.2%, 7.1%, and 7.2% respectively [3] - Adjusted net profits for the same period are forecasted at 191.79 billion, 200.43 billion, and 217.53 billion yuan, with growth rates of 21.4%, 4.5%, and 8.5% respectively [3] - The report assigns an 11x PE to FY2026 adjusted net profit and a 5x PS to FY2026 cloud revenue, resulting in a target price of HK$160.1 per share [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown improvement in inventory management and continues to maintain high dividend payouts, with a proposed cash dividend of 0.02 CNY per share and a special dividend of 0.12 CNY, resulting in a total dividend payout ratio of 135% and a dividend yield of 8.75% [2][5] - The company faced a decline in revenue and net profit due to sales pressure and inventory challenges, leading to a significant promotional effort and adjustments in sales structure [2][4] - The company is focusing on enhancing its online sales through a combination of platform e-commerce, content e-commerce, and private domain operations, which is expected to offset the decline in offline foot traffic [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2025, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and operating cash flow were 270.13 billion CNY, 12.86 billion CNY, and 37.55 billion CNY, respectively, representing year-on-year changes of -6.6%, -41.9%, and +20.0% [2] - The gross profit margin decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 38.4%, while the net profit margin fell by 2.9 percentage points to 4.8% due to increased promotional activities and adjustments in sales structure [4] Store and Sales Analysis - The number of stores decreased by 18.3% to 5020, while the average sales area per store increased by 7.2% [3] - Revenue from the main brand, other brands, joint venture fees, and e-sports was 233.11 billion CNY, 35.05 billion CNY, 1.46 billion CNY, and 0.52 billion CNY, respectively, with declines of 6.1%, 9.9%, 14.1%, and 32.4% year-on-year [3] Digital Transformation and Customer Engagement - The company has over 500 accounts on Douyin and WeChat video accounts, with more than 2300 mini-program stores, achieving significant online sales growth [3] - The company has developed an AI tool, "Dolphin AI," which has contributed nearly 100 million CNY in sales and improved content generation efficiency [3] Future Outlook - Short-term improvements in inventory and online sales strategies are expected to enhance revenue [5] - The company is optimistic about future growth with new partnerships and a focus on digital transformation [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown improvement in inventory management and continues to maintain high dividend payouts, with a proposed cash dividend of 0.02 CNY per share and a special dividend of 0.12 CNY, resulting in a total dividend payout ratio of 135% and a dividend yield of 8.75% [2][5] - The company is facing challenges with a decline in revenue and net profit due to sales pressure and inventory issues, but effective cash flow management has led to a positive operating cash flow [2][4] - The company is strategically optimizing its retail store structure and enhancing online sales through a combination of platform e-commerce, content e-commerce, and private domain operations [3][5] Summary by Sections Financial Overview - For FY2025, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and operating cash flow were 270.13 billion CNY, 12.86 billion CNY, and 37.55 billion CNY, respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -6.6%, -41.9%, and +20.0% [2] - The gross profit margin decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 38.4%, while the net profit margin fell by 2.9 percentage points to 4.8% [4] Store and Sales Performance - The number of stores decreased by 18.3% to 5020, while the average sales area per store increased by 7.2% [3] - Revenue from the main brand and other brands saw declines of 6.1% and 9.9%, respectively, primarily due to weak consumer demand and reduced foot traffic [3] Online and Offline Strategy - The company has over 500 accounts on Douyin and WeChat video accounts, with more than 2,300 mini-program stores, indicating a strong online presence [3] - The company is focusing on enhancing retail experiences and has partnered with high-end brands to expand its product matrix [5] Future Outlook - Short-term improvements in inventory and online sales are expected to offset declines in offline traffic [5] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for FY26-27 down to 263.85 billion CNY and 279.18 billion CNY, with net profit forecasts adjusted to 12.90 billion CNY and 14.52 billion CNY, respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that ZTO Express achieved an adjusted net profit of 2.259 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The operating cash flow net amount was 2.363 billion yuan, up 16.3% year-on-year [2][3] - The company reported a total revenue of 10.892 billion yuan in Q1 2025, which is a 9.4% increase compared to the same period last year. The express service revenue was 10.122 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.5% year-on-year growth [3][4] - ZTO Express handled 8.539 billion parcels in Q1 2025, marking a 19.1% increase year-on-year, maintaining a market share of approximately 18.9%, which is the highest in the industry [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the adjusted net profit was 2.259 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%. The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.213 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [3] - The single ticket express revenue was 1.19 yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year, attributed to intensified industry competition and changes in cargo structure [4] - The single ticket express cost was approximately 0.68 yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, benefiting from improved economies of scale and optimized route planning [4] Market Position and Growth Outlook - ZTO Express aims for high-quality volume growth, targeting a parcel volume of 40.8 billion to 42.2 billion in 2025, which represents a year-on-year increase of 20% to 24% [5] - The report indicates that the express delivery industry still has significant growth potential, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce [6] - The company is expected to maintain its leading market position and achieve steady growth in both volume and profit due to its scale and management advantages [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 10.324 billion yuan, 11.655 billion yuan, and 13.388 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.42%, 12.89%, and 14.87% respectively [8] - The report emphasizes that ZTO Express's current valuation is at a historically low level, suggesting potential for significant upside [7][8]

公 司 研 究 中通快递-W（02057.HK）：价格战导致 收入端承压，份额增长依旧是经营重心 事件：公司发布 2025 一季报，公司单季完成业务量 85.40 亿件，同比增长 19.1%，市场份额下降 0.4pct 至 18.9%。公司调整后净利润 22.59 亿元，同比 增长 1.6%。 业务量增速回升，但略低于行业均值，25 年重点提升份额：24 年 Q1-Q4，中 通业务量增速分别为 13.9%、10.1%、15.9%和 11.0%，可以看到 24 年整体 业务量增速偏低。25 年公司将工作重心转向提升市场份额，Q1 业务量增速提 升至 19.1%，但还略低于行业增速的 21.6%，主要系低价件整体维持了较快增 长，导致行业整体增速较高。公司维持 25 年业务量 408-422 亿件，同比增长 20-24%的指引不变，按照指引，预计后续几个季度公司业务量增速较 Q1 有所 提升。 单票收入下降 0.11 元，主要系增量补贴提升：Q1 行业竞争较为激烈，导致公 司单票收入由 24Q1 的 1.36 元降至 25Q1 的 1.25 元。其中单票增量补贴增加 导致单票收入下降 0.16 元，以及单票重量下 ...