Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 3.9% in 2024, driven by professional categories such as running and fitness [7]. - The gross margin is projected to improve to 49.4%, while net profit is expected to decline by 5.5% to 3.01 billion [7]. - The company is focusing on optimizing channel structures and enhancing operational efficiency to expand its influence in the professional sports market [7]. Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue (in million) for 2023 is 27,598.49, projected to be 28,675.64 in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9% [6]. - Net profit (in million) for 2023 is 3,186.91, expected to decrease to 3,012.92 in 2024, reflecting a decline of 5.46% [6]. - The diluted EPS for 2024 is projected at 1.17, with a gross margin of 49.37% [6][10]. - The company anticipates a net profit of 27.3 billion and 28.6 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a PE valuation range of 13-15X for 2025 [7]. Market Performance - The company's stock price closed at 15.78 HKD, with a 52-week price range of 12.56-24.60 HKD [2]. - The total market capitalization is 40,788 million HKD [2]. - The company has faced challenges in offline traffic, with a reported decline in daily customer flow by 10-20% [7]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from the Li Ning brand is expected to reach 26.82 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [7]. - Revenue from footwear, apparel, and equipment is projected at 14.3 billion, 12.05 billion, and 2.32 billion, respectively, with footwear showing a growth of 6.8% [7]. Inventory and Efficiency - The company maintains a healthy inventory structure with a turnover period of 64 days and an inventory cost increase of 4.2% year-on-year [7]. - The overall inventory turnover ratio is 4.0 months, indicating a stable inventory management strategy [7]. Valuation and Estimates - The estimated reasonable value range for the stock is between 14.92 and 17.22 HKD per share based on the projected earnings [7]. - The company is expected to maintain a dividend yield of approximately 3.71% in 2024 [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a total wholesale sales volume of 232,000 vehicles in March, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.9% and a month-on-month increase of 13.3%. Cumulatively, from January to March, the total wholesale sales reached 704,000 vehicles, up 47.9% year-on-year [2][3] - The sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in March reached 119,696 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 167.2% and a month-on-month increase of 21.6%, with a penetration rate of 51.6%. For the first quarter, cumulative NEV sales were 339,000 units, up 135.4% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 3.58 billion yuan in Q4 2024, exceeding market expectations, with a gross margin of 17.3%, reflecting a gradual realization of profitability improvement driven by new energy [2][4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In March, the company's total sales were 232,000 vehicles, with the Galaxy brand contributing 90,032 units. The Zeekr brand sold 15,422 units, and Lynk & Co sold 25,293 units [2][3] New Energy Vehicle Strategy - The company plans to launch five new products under the Galaxy brand, including two SUVs and three sedans, with an annual sales target of over 1 million units for the Galaxy brand [2][4] Technological Advancements - The establishment of Zeekr Technology Group aims to enhance strategic focus and integration, targeting the pure electric market above 300,000 yuan, while Lynk & Co will focus on hybrid models priced around 200,000 yuan [3][4] - The company is integrating AI technologies into its vehicles, with plans to fully implement its AI strategy across new models [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 14.02 billion yuan in 2025, 17.78 billion yuan in 2026, and 20.38 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.39, 1.76, and 2.02 yuan [5][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Feihe (06186.HK) is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 20.749 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, and a net profit of 3.570 billion RMB, up 5.3% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.3264 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 76%, enhancing shareholder returns [3][4] - The company is a leader in the Chinese infant formula market, with a continuous increase in market share and solid brand and channel advantages. The forecast for net profit in 2025-2026 has been slightly lowered due to intense market competition and delayed effects of fertility policies [3][4] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue and net profit projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2025E Revenue: 22.234 billion RMB, YOY +7.2% - 2025E Net Profit: 3.868 billion RMB, YOY +8.4% - 2026E Revenue: 23.669 billion RMB, YOY +6.5% - 2026E Net Profit: 4.139 billion RMB, YOY +7.0% - 2027E Revenue: 25.208 billion RMB, YOY +6.5% - 2027E Net Profit: 4.416 billion RMB, YOY +6.7% [5] - The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.43, 0.46, and 0.49 RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.8, 11.9, and 11.2 times [5] Product and Growth Strategy - The company is focusing on high-end and ultra-high-end products, with the "Star Feifan Zhuorui" series gaining market share. The birth rate in China is expected to improve, with 9.54 million births in 2024, a 5.8% increase year-on-year, which may drive demand for infant formula in 2025 [4] - The company is implementing a full-age nutrition strategy, covering all life stages from infants to the elderly, which is expected to support sustainable growth [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 6.28, indicating a potential upside of 27.4% from the current price of HKD 4.93 [1][12][18]. Core Insights - The company's performance met expectations, with a recovery in polysilicon prices, although the stock price has dropped significantly, making valuations attractive [2][7]. - The company reported a loss of RMB 39.1 billion for 2024, slightly better than the forecast median, with the polysilicon segment contributing a loss of approximately RMB 50 billion [7][8]. - The report highlights a significant increase in operating costs and a decline in average selling prices for polysilicon, which fell by 60% year-on-year to RMB 38,400 per ton [7][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 30,752 million, with a decline to RMB 21,213 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31% [3][14]. - Net profit is expected to drop from RMB 4,345 million in 2023 to a loss of RMB 3,957 million in 2024, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years [3][14]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be RMB 3.04 in 2023, dropping to a loss of RMB 2.77 in 2024, before recovering to RMB 1.09 by 2027 [3][14]. Segment Performance - The polysilicon segment is expected to produce 19.9 million tons in 2024, with a sales volume of 19.9 million tons, maintaining a production/sales rate of 100.2% [9][10]. - The average selling price for polysilicon is projected to decline further in 2025, with a forecasted price of RMB 37,000 per ton [9][10]. - The report anticipates that the company's gross margin from polysilicon will remain negative in 2025, with a recovery expected in subsequent years as production costs decrease [9][10]. Valuation Methodology - The target price of HKD 6.28 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts valuation, with the polysilicon segment valued at RMB 14 billion and the non-polysilicon segments valued at RMB 70 billion based on a 5x earnings multiple [10][12]. - The report notes that the current price-to-book ratio is only 0.20, indicating that the stock is undervalued compared to its historical averages [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 42.00, indicating a potential upside of 26.3% from the current price of HKD 33.25 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to continue its strong performance in 2024, driven by steady growth in patient visits, member user engagement, and doctor supply. The integration of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) with AI is anticipated to contribute significantly to long-term revenue growth [3][7]. - The company plans to expand its operations into overseas markets such as Indonesia and Malaysia, focusing on both TCM and AI applications [7]. - The management has indicated that despite investments in AI, adjusted net profit is projected to grow by over 20% in 2025 [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to reach RMB 3.022 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 30%. Adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 426 million, also reflecting a 31% increase [7][13]. - The company has shown a significant increase in its doctor supply, with a 44% growth in its own doctor team, totaling 782 doctors [7]. - The report highlights a shift towards a membership model, with member revenue contributing 42% of total income, showcasing higher annual spending and visit frequency compared to non-members [7]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The earnings forecast for 2025 has been slightly adjusted, with expected revenue of RMB 3.96 billion and adjusted net profit of RMB 501 million, reflecting a 1% decrease from previous estimates [6][13]. - The gross profit margin is projected to be 30.1% for 2025, slightly down from previous forecasts [6]. Valuation Metrics - The report utilizes a DCF valuation model, estimating the company's equity value at approximately HKD 42.00 per share, based on a 22x P/E ratio for 2025 and a PEG ratio of 0.8 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 13.50, indicating a potential upside of 49.5% from the current price of HKD 9.03 [2][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by the demand for same-city delivery services, with projected growth rates of 23% for 2025 and 21% for 2026. However, the average delivery revenue per order may slightly decline year-on-year due to changes in order structure [2][6]. - Profit margins are anticipated to improve due to economies of scale, with management forecasting a profit margin of at least 2% by 2027, approaching the industry norm of 3-5% [2][6]. - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 289% to RMB 79 million, driven by scale effects, customer structure optimization, and operational efficiency improvements [6][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 19,350 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.9% compared to the previous year. The revenue from same-city delivery services is expected to be RMB 11,316 million, while last-mile delivery is projected at RMB 8,034 million [5][13]. - The gross profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 1,374 million, with a gross margin of 7.1% [5][13]. - Adjusted operating profit is expected to be RMB 293 million in 2025, with an adjusted operating margin of 1.5% [5][13]. Market Position and Performance - The company has shown resilience in its market position, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 6,571.76 million and a 52-week high of HKD 12.60 [4][12]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 0.69 million shares, indicating active trading interest [4][12]. - The stock has experienced a year-to-date change of -2.80%, reflecting market volatility [4][12].

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 4 月 2 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 10.48 | 港元 | 10.20↓ | -2.7% | | | 网龙网络 (777 HK) | | | | | | | 业绩短期承压，关注欧美教育市场改善及游戏下半年改善的趋势 2025 年公司游戏及教育业务收入增长面临不确定性，虽然通过 AI+战略有望实 现降本增效对运营费用的优化，短期利润或仍有下降压力，我们基于 SOTP， 将目标价从 14.00 港元下调至 10.20 港元，其中游戏维持 5 倍 2025 年市盈率不 变，评级下调至中性，关注欧美教育市场环境后续改善以及游戏调整期后下 半年恢复增长的趋势。 个股评级 中性↓ 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 777 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 12.78 | | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 6.5, indicating a potential upside of 54% from the current price of HKD 4.2 [6][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 23.13 billion in 2024, a slight decrease of 1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 23% to RMB 1.46 billion [2][4]. - The company has announced a dividend policy for 2025-2027, committing to a distribution rate of no less than 25% of audited net profit and a minimum dividend of RMB 0.24 per share [2][4]. - The report anticipates net profits for 2025-2027 to reach RMB 1.1 billion, RMB 1.88 billion, and RMB 2.82 billion, reflecting year-on-year changes of -25%, +71%, and +50% respectively [4][6]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - Urea revenue was RMB 7.31 billion, up 6% year-on-year, but prices fell by 17% due to increased industry capacity and export restrictions, leading to a 4 percentage point decline in gross margin to 25% [3]. - Compound fertilizer revenue decreased by 2% to RMB 6 billion, with a gross margin increase of 2.1 percentage points to 15% [3]. - Methanol revenue rose by 15% to RMB 2.68 billion, with a gross margin increase of 9.2 percentage points to 8.6% [3]. - The company is facing an oversupply issue in the urea market, with an expected addition of 6.6 million tons of capacity in 2025 [3]. Capacity Expansion - The company is expanding its production capacity, with several projects coming online, including a 60,000-ton formaldehyde project and a 300,000-ton compound fertilizer project [4]. - By the end of 2027, the company's fertilizer production capacity is expected to exceed 13 million tons, making it the largest fertilizer producer in China [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to lead the industry in performance stabilization due to significant impairment provisions, despite a decline in earnings for 2024 [1]. - The company has a healthy debt structure and maintains smooth financing channels, with a total interest-bearing debt of RMB 137.19 billion, down 6.1% [2]. - The company's sales performance remains strong, with a contract sales amount of RMB 276.8 billion in 2024, showing a decline of only 8.1% compared to the industry [3]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of RMB 158.55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, while net profit is expected to decline by 37.9% to RMB 4.15 billion [1][5]. - The gross profit margin for the period is reported at 12.8%, with a slight increase in property development gross margin to 11.7% [1]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at RMB 0.63, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.7 [5][12]. Sales and Land Acquisition - The company added 42 new projects in 2024, with a land acquisition amount of RMB 48.4 billion, focusing on core cities [3]. - The total land reserve area at the end of 2024 is expected to be 27.47 million square meters, with a total land value of RMB 449.6 billion, of which 76% is located in first and second-tier cities [3]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 153.3 billion, RMB 152.9 billion, and RMB 154.3 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 1.57 billion, RMB 2.11 billion, and RMB 3.05 billion [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 13.50, indicating a potential upside of 49.5% from the current price of HKD 9.03 [2][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience significant growth in revenue, with projections of 23% and 21% growth for the fiscal years 2025 and 2026, respectively, driven by demand for same-city delivery services and an increase in order volume [2][6]. - The management anticipates that profit margins will continue to improve, aiming for a margin of at least 2% by 2027, approaching the industry norm of 3-5% [2][6]. - The report highlights a notable trend of scalable profit growth, with a substantial increase in net profit expected in 2024, driven by operational efficiencies and an expanding customer base [6][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 19.35 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.9% compared to the previous year [5][13]. - The gross profit is expected to be RMB 1.374 billion in 2025, reflecting a gross margin of 7.1% [5][13]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB 269 million in 2025, with an adjusted net profit margin of 1.4% [5][13]. Market Performance - The company's stock has a 52-week high of HKD 12.60 and a low of HKD 8.40, with a current market capitalization of approximately HKD 6.57 billion [4][12]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 0.69 million shares [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The report indicates that the same-city delivery service revenue is expected to be RMB 11.316 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 24% [7][13]. - Last-mile delivery revenue is projected to reach RMB 8.034 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 21% [7][13]. Cost Structure - The total operating costs are expected to be RMB 17.977 billion in 2025, leading to a projected operating profit of RMB 274 million [7][13]. - The report outlines a focus on cost management and operational efficiency to enhance profitability [6][7]. Conclusion - The report presents a positive outlook for the company, emphasizing its growth potential in the same-city delivery market and the expected improvement in profit margins over the coming years [2][6][7].