2026 年 02 月 03 日 中际旭创(300308.SZ) 红利 事件： 1 月 31 日，中际旭创发布全年业绩预告，公司预计 2025 年 1-12 月 业绩大幅上升，归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 98.00 亿至 118.00 亿，净利润同比增长 89.50%至 128.17%。公司预测业绩增长主要基 于：受益于算力需求，高速光模块等产品出货增加带动营收和利润提 升。虽然股份支付费用、存货与应收款减值损失、汇率下跌带来的汇 兑损失共计减少净利润约 6.06 亿元，但投资收益与公允价值变动损 益增加了净利润约 2.96 亿元，部分抵消了上述负面影响。 全球市场高速增长，需求远超供给: 全球 AI 算力建设正推动高端光模块需求高速增长，市场呈现"需求 远超供给"的紧平衡状态。根据 Lightcounting 预计，由于海内外科 技巨头（如 Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta、微软、阿里巴巴、腾讯、百度 等）创纪录的资本支出，当前包括光模块在内的许多产品需求超出供 应两倍以上。未来市场增速将直接取决于供应链的扩产能力。 增长的核心动力明确：一是 AI 基础设施对高速光模块与交换机的强 劲需求；二是光互连技 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 53.84 CNY [4][7]. Core Insights - The company's short-term performance is under pressure due to intensified competition and policy impacts, leading to a downward revision of revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [4][10]. - Despite the short-term challenges, the company has significant long-term growth potential driven by self-research and innovation transformation [4][10]. - The company is expected to leverage its integrated service capabilities in contract research and development (CRO) and contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) to enhance its business structure and return to a growth trajectory [10]. - The company has a robust pipeline of self-researched products, with 132 projects under development, including 37 approved products, which are anticipated to contribute to stable revenue growth as they enter commercialization [10]. - The company is actively transitioning to innovative drug development, with 15 ongoing projects in key therapeutic areas, which could provide a second growth curve through partnerships and milestone payments [10]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to decline from 1,017 million CNY in 2023 to 696 million CNY in 2025, with a recovery to 889 million CNY by 2027 [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to turn negative in 2024 and 2025, with forecasts of -53 million CNY and -69 million CNY respectively, before recovering to 67 million CNY in 2027 [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be -0.63 CNY in 2025, with a recovery to 0.61 CNY by 2027 [6]. - The gross margin is expected to decrease from 65.5% in 2023 to 52.0% in 2024, before gradually improving to 56.4% by 2027 [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The issuance of H-share zero-coupon convertible bonds is expected to dilute H-share capital by 29.53% and total capital by 5.6%, with proceeds aimed at overseas business development and working capital supplementation. This is anticipated to have short-term pressure on the stock price, particularly in the Hong Kong market, but is expected to benefit long-term international business growth and enhance overall ROE [4][5][6] - The company maintains its profit forecast, projecting net profit attributable to shareholders of 168 billion, 217 billion, and 251 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 9%, 29%, and 16% respectively. The corresponding PE ratios are 12.2, 9.4, and 8.2 times, with a current PB of 1.20 times [4][6] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to reach 37,078 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, followed by a recovery to 43,144 million yuan in 2026 and 48,837 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 16.4% and 13.2% respectively [7][10] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 16,750 million yuan in 2025, 21,680 million yuan in 2026, and 25,067 million yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.1%, 29.4%, and 15.6% respectively [7][10] - The company's gross margin is projected to improve from 51.2% in 2025 to 58.5% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to rise from 45.2% to 51.3% over the same period [7][10] Valuation Metrics - The projected PE ratios for the company are 12.2 for 2025, 9.4 for 2026, and 8.2 for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [7][10] - The projected PB ratios are 1.2 for 2025, 1.1 for 2026, and 1.0 for 2027, suggesting a decreasing trend in the price-to-book ratio [7][10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook following the divestiture of its real estate business and steady growth in the cosmetics segment [5][42]. Core Insights - The company has transitioned its main business focus to cosmetics and pharmaceuticals after divesting its real estate operations in 2023. The cosmetics segment has shown resilience, contributing over 52.8% of total revenue [10][41]. - The company is leveraging a "product + R&D + channel" strategy to build competitive advantages, focusing on marketing synergies, innovation in product development, and a comprehensive online and offline sales network [8][30][34]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at RMB 38.1 billion, RMB 39.3 billion, and RMB 43.0 billion, with corresponding growth rates of -4.3%, +3.1%, and +9.5% respectively. Net profit is expected to reach RMB 2.4 billion, RMB 2.7 billion, and RMB 3.1 billion during the same period [9][41]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price of the stock is RMB 7.36, with a total market capitalization of RMB 7,481.95 million and a circulating market value of RMB 7,481.95 million [3]. Financial Data - The company reported a gross margin of 46.49% in 2023, a significant increase of 21.84 percentage points from the previous year, primarily due to the strategic shift away from low-margin real estate operations [21]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company anticipates a decline in revenue for 2023, followed by a gradual recovery, with net profit growth projected at +0.2%, +8.8%, and +15.3% for the years 2025 to 2027 [9][41]. Business Segments - The cosmetics segment is expected to see revenue growth of -5%, +6%, and +14% from 2025 to 2027, while the pharmaceutical segment is projected to grow at -5%, -3%, and +5% during the same period [10][41]. - The raw materials and additives segment is forecasted to grow steadily, with revenue increases of +3%, +4%, and +5% from 2025 to 2027 [10]. Competitive Positioning - The company is positioned favorably against comparable domestic brands, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 28 times for 2026, aligning with industry averages [42]. Marketing and R&D Strategy - The company has invested significantly in R&D, with a budget of RMB 1.16 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a research expense ratio of 4.47% [30]. - New product launches and marketing initiatives are focused on enhancing brand visibility and consumer engagement across various channels, including e-commerce and physical retail [28][34]. Sales Channels - The cosmetics segment's revenue is heavily driven by online sales, contributing 84.2% of total revenue, while offline sales account for 15.8% [34]. - The company is expanding its presence in both online and offline markets, establishing flagship stores on major e-commerce platforms and increasing the number of physical retail locations [34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 6-7 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 410.87% to 496.02%, and a net profit of 1.85-2.15 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [1] - The demand for AI computing power continues to rise, and the maturity of the cloud product line is driving large-scale commercialization across various sectors, including telecommunications, finance, and the internet [1][3] - The company's quarterly revenue is projected to increase, with Q4 2025 revenue estimated between 1.393 billion and 2.393 billion yuan, showing a sequential growth from Q3 2025 [1] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 6.368 billion, 13.091 billion, and 20.953 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 2.062 billion, 4.363 billion, and 7.018 billion yuan [3][5] - The company is expected to achieve an EPS of 4.89 yuan in 2025, increasing to 10.35 yuan in 2026 and 16.64 yuan in 2027 [5][10] - The net asset return rate is projected to improve significantly, reaching 18.0% in 2025 and 30.7% in 2027 [5][10] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned in the semiconductor industry, with leading technology in computing chips and accelerated customer adoption, enhancing business resilience and performance [3][6] - The launch of the Cambricon NeuWare software platform supports rapid migration and optimization of AI models, establishing a comprehensive system from self-developed chip architecture to high-performance software [2]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告 2026 年 2 月 3 日 江海证券研究发展部 机械军工行业研究组 执业证书编号：S1410524040001 | 投资评级： | 买入（维持） | | --- | --- | | 当前价格: | 69.37元 | | 市场数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | | | 120.76 | | | | | | A 股股本(百万股) | | | 120.76 | | | | | | B/H 股股本(百万股) | | | -/- | | | | | | A 股流通比例(%) | | | 31.25 | | | | | | 个月最高/最低(元) | | | 88.98/36.60 | | 12 | | | | 第一大股东 | | | 蒋修华 | | | | | | 第一大股东持股比例(%) | | | 39.75 | | | | | | 上证综指/沪深 300 | | 4015.75/4605.98 | | | | | | | 数据来源：聚源 | 2 | | 日数据 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, China Jushi (600176.SH), with a current price of 20.15 CNY [2]. Core Views - China Jushi is a leading player in the global fiberglass industry, with a strong focus on innovation and cost advantages. The company has maintained a solid growth trajectory, with significant increases in revenue and net profit over the years [6][14]. - The company is expected to continue its expansion and product high-endization, which will enhance its profitability and growth momentum. The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 20%, 11%, and 10% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - China Jushi is recognized as a pioneer in the fiberglass industry in China, evolving into a global leader with the largest production capacity for both fiberglass roving and electronic fabrics [14]. - The company has a market share of approximately 34% in the domestic fiberglass sector and 25% in the electronic fabric sector, both ranking first globally [14]. 2. Production Capacity and Innovation - The company has consistently expanded its production capacity, with a focus on high-end products. As of October 2025, it has the largest production capacity for fiberglass roving and electronic fabrics globally [30][31]. - The report highlights that the company has maintained high capital expenditures to support its growth, with production capacity increasing from 210,000 tons in 2004 to 2.74 million tons by the end of 2024 for fiberglass roving [31]. 3. Cost Advantages and Profitability - China Jushi has a significant cost advantage, with its production cost per ton being 1,017 CNY lower than the average of its competitors in 2024. The company has successfully reduced its production costs from 5,888 CNY per ton in 2001 to 3,563 CNY per ton in 2024 [47][51]. - The company's gross margin for fiberglass products is projected to be 24.3% in 2024, which is 9.1 percentage points higher than the average of its competitors [51]. 4. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The report projects that the company's revenue will reach 15.86 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.6%. By 2027, revenue is expected to grow to 23.13 billion CNY [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 2.45 billion CNY in 2024, with a significant increase of 39.3% expected in 2025 [2]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes that the growth potential of China Jushi should not be underestimated, and it recommends a "Buy" rating based on the company's strong market position and ongoing product high-endization efforts [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for BYD (002594.SZ) with a current price of 87.05 CNY per share [4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by high-end product offerings and international expansion, with projected revenues of 777.1 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 1,104.5 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.6% [3][20]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 40.3 billion CNY in 2024 to 58.6 billion CNY in 2027, with a notable increase of 34.0% in 2024, followed by a decrease of 7.5% in 2025, and then a recovery with growth rates of 27.4% and 23.4% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [3][20]. - The report highlights a significant decline in January's sales figures, with wholesale sales of new energy vehicles dropping by 30.1% year-on-year and 50.0% month-on-month, indicating a challenging market environment [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2027 are as follows: - 2024: 777.1 billion CNY - 2025: 866.5 billion CNY - 2026: 981.3 billion CNY - 2027: 1,104.5 billion CNY - The expected growth rates for these years are 29.0%, 11.5%, 13.3%, and 12.6% respectively [3][20]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2024: 40.3 billion CNY - 2025: 37.2 billion CNY - 2026: 47.5 billion CNY - 2027: 58.6 billion CNY - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 4.42 CNY in 2024 to 6.43 CNY in 2027 [3][20]. Sales Performance - In January, BYD's wholesale sales of new energy vehicles totaled 210,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 30.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 50.0% [8]. - The report notes that the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles also saw significant declines, with respective year-on-year decreases of 28.5% and 33.6% [8]. - The high-end brand, Fangchengbao, has shown strong sales momentum, with cumulative sales surpassing 300,000 units, indicating a successful high-end strategy [8]. International Expansion - BYD's international sales have shown a positive trend, with January exports reaching 100,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 51.5% [8]. - The company is expanding its overseas manufacturing capabilities, with new factories in Brazil and plans for additional facilities in Uzbekistan, Hungary, Turkey, and Indonesia, which are expected to enhance profitability [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience significant revenue and profit growth due to the increasing demand for high-speed optical modules driven by AI computing and data communication markets [5][6]. - The company has a strong technological foundation and competitive product offerings, particularly in low-power technologies, which create a high-margin moat [5][6]. - The company's overseas production capacity is expected to support order fulfillment and mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions and tariff fluctuations [5][6]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts a net profit of 9.4 to 9.9 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 231.24% to 248.86% [1]. - For Q4 2025, the net profit is projected to be between 3.073 to 3.573 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 28.85% to 49.82% [1]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 26.255 billion, 44.707 billion, and 58.102 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 9.667 billion, 16.622 billion, and 21.674 billion yuan [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Weichai Power with a target price of 38.52 CNY [5][20]. Core Insights - Weichai Power is expected to transition from a heavy-duty truck powertrain manufacturer to a comprehensive supplier of AIDC power generation equipment, driven by the rapid growth in global AIDC investments and the ongoing electricity shortages in the U.S. [2][11]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 12.4 billion CNY, 15.3 billion CNY, and 28 billion CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.43 CNY, 1.75 CNY, and 3.21 CNY [11][15]. - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the AIDC power generation sector, particularly for Weichai's gas engine generator sets and SOFC technology, as demand for distributed power generation increases [11][36]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is forecasted to grow from 213.96 billion CNY in 2023 to 277.18 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.3% [4][18]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly from 9.01 billion CNY in 2023 to 27.96 billion CNY in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 83.3% [4][18]. - The company's net asset return is projected to rise from 11.4% in 2023 to 23.2% in 2027, indicating improved profitability [4][18]. Business Segment Forecast - The intelligent logistics segment is expected to generate revenues of 91.39 billion CNY, 98.70 billion CNY, and 103.63 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding gross profits of 24.60 billion CNY, 27.23 billion CNY, and 28.95 billion CNY [15][18]. - The agricultural equipment segment is projected to achieve revenues of 20.18 billion CNY, 21.19 billion CNY, and 22.25 billion CNY for the same years, with gross profits of 2.68 billion CNY, 2.81 billion CNY, and 2.95 billion CNY [16][18]. - The complete vehicles and key components segment is forecasted to generate revenues of 103.25 billion CNY, 115.64 billion CNY, and 127.20 billion CNY, with gross profits of 20.83 billion CNY, 23.33 billion CNY, and 25.66 billion CNY [16][18]. Market Outlook - The global AIDC investment is expected to grow rapidly, with the total installed capacity of data centers projected to increase from 97 GW in 2024 to 226 GW by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 15% [22][23]. - The report indicates a significant power supply gap in the U.S. AIDC market, with an estimated shortfall of approximately 1.5 GW in 2025, potentially expanding to nearly 7 GW by 2030, creating substantial opportunities for Weichai's gas engine generator sets and SOFC technology [36][39]. - The demand for distributed power generation equipment, such as gas engine generator sets and SOFC, is expected to rise significantly due to the limitations of existing power grids and gas turbine supply capabilities in the U.S. [36][39].