国泰海通晨报 2026 年 03 月 03 日 国泰海通证券股份有限公司 研究所 [汤蔚翔 Table_Authors] (分析师) 电话：021-38676172 邮箱：tangweixiang@gtht.com 登记编号：S0880511010007 [Table_Summary] 1、【策略研究】：热点主题交易热度节后回升，金属资源品主题普涨，AI 应用主题回调。中东战 火强化能源资源价格，Token 出海成为 AI 投资新叙事，重视两会内需方向增量政策。 2、【汽车研究】汽车：展望 2026 年，乘用车销量预计温和增长，新能源高端化趋势明确，细分 市场供给加速释放。我们看好全球化布局领先、高端化表现亮眼、智能化能力突出的车企。 3、【固定收益研究】：战争冲击对债券的影响往往呈现"短期避险—中期再定价"的阶段切换， 判断持续性需同时跟踪通胀/财政路径与尾部风险指标，而非仅看单一期限利率点位。 4、【食品饮料研究】海天味业：引领"餐饮解决方案"及"复调"商业模式并举将保障公司中长 期超额收益，同时我们预计新一轮提价潮即将到来，顺势而为有望实现"量价齐升"。 5、【海外科技研究】MINIMAX-WP：极致性 ...

目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2026-02-27 09:00——2026-03-02 15:00） 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观周报：《节后生产修复》2026-03-01 3 | | |  | 宏观周报：《中东冲突再起，通胀苗头初现》2026-03-01 3 | | |  | 策略专题报告：《资源品普涨与 Token 出海新叙事》2026-03-02 4 | | |  | 策略周报：《稳定是如今中国股市的底色》2026-03-01 5 | | |  | 策略观察：《资产概览：中东紧张局势推升贵金属/原油价格》2026-03-01 6 | | |  | 策略观察：《春节旅游景气提升，科技和资源涨价》2026-02-28 7 | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：钢铁《第一批引领性钢企公布》2026-03-02 8 | | |  | 行业周报：物流仓储《中蒙业务复苏，物流春意渐浓》2026-03-01 9 | | |  | 行业专题研究：海运《中东局势再度升级，关注油运灰色市场变化》2026-03-01 9 | | |  | 行业专题研究：基础化工《PVC 长 ...

目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2026-02-27 09:00——2026-03-02 15:00） 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观周报：《节后生产修复》2026-03-01 3 | | |  | 宏观周报：《中东冲突再起，通胀苗头初现》2026-03-01 3 | | |  | 策略专题报告：《资源品普涨与 Token 出海新叙事》2026-03-02 4 | | |  | 策略周报：《稳定是如今中国股市的底色》2026-03-01 5 | | |  | 策略观察：《资产概览：中东紧张局势推升贵金属/原油价格》2026-03-01 6 | | |  | 策略观察：《春节旅游景气提升，科技和资源涨价》2026-02-28 7 | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：钢铁《第一批引领性钢企公布》2026-03-02 8 | | |  | 行业周报：物流仓储《中蒙业务复苏，物流春意渐浓》2026-03-01 9 | | |  | 行业专题研究：海运《中东局势再度升级，关注油运灰色市场变化》2026-03-01 9 | | |  | 行业专题研究：基础化工《PVC 长 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the essential consumer goods sector in China is "Outperform" for multiple companies including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1]. Core Insights - In February 2026, five out of eight tracked essential consumer goods sectors showed positive growth, while two experienced negative growth and one remained flat. The sectors with growth included frozen food, condiments, beer, catering, and soft drinks, while premium and above baijiu and dairy products saw declines. The improvement in data is attributed to the extended Spring Festival holiday and increased travel enthusiasm, which boosted demand for catering and related supply chain products [3][18]. Summary by Sector Baijiu Sector - **Premium and Above Baijiu**: Revenue reached RMB 44.0 billion in February, down 14.6% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 91.0 billion, a decrease of 14.2% year-on-year. The sector faced pressure on both volume and price due to reliance on business consumption and numerous brands affecting price control [4][19]. - **Mass-Market and Below Baijiu**: Revenue was RMB 17.4 billion in February, flat year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 40.3 billion, down 1.7% year-on-year. The prices of mass-market baijiu showed signs of stabilization, attributed to its inelastic demand and balanced producer-distributor relationships [20]. Beer Sector - Revenue in the beer sector was RMB 15.2 billion in February, up 5.6% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 32.2 billion, down 1.5% year-on-year. The sector benefited from seasonal factors and increased demand in lower-tier markets, with the RMB 8-10 price segment driving revenue growth [21]. Condiments Sector - Revenue in the condiments sector was RMB 41.5 billion in February, up 5.6% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of growth. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 88.4 billion, up 4.5% year-on-year. The recovery in catering channels and increased inventory replenishment contributed to this growth [22]. Dairy Products Sector - Revenue in the dairy sector was RMB 41.5 billion in February, down 1.2% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 85.0 billion, flat year-on-year. Despite ongoing pressure, there was a noticeable recovery in catering consumption and gifting needs during the Spring Festival [23]. Frozen Food Sector - Revenue in the frozen food sector was RMB 14.0 billion in February, up 8.9% year-on-year, also marking the third consecutive month of growth. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 29.0 billion, up 8.5% year-on-year. The sector's performance was supported by Spring Festival stockpiling and increased demand from small B-end clients [24]. Soft Drinks Sector - Revenue in the soft drinks sector was RMB 49.8 billion in February, up 2.3% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 146.0 billion, up 1.5% year-on-year. The sector faced intensifying market competition, reflected in the discount rates for products [26]. Catering Sector - Revenue in the catering sector was RMB 14.0 billion in February, up 4.9% year-on-year, achieving its third consecutive month of growth. Cumulative revenue for January-February was RMB 30.2 billion, up 3.6% year-on-year. The sector benefited from the extended Spring Festival holiday, although profitability remained under pressure [27].

证券研究报告 证券分析师 行业研究 / 行业点评 2026 年 03 月 02 日 行业及产业 食品饮料 强于大市 投资要点： 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 03-03 04-03 05-03 06-03 07-03 08-03 09-03 10-03 11-03 12-03 01-03 02-03 食品饮料 沪深300 (收益率) 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：线上 i 茅台数据亮 眼，线下茅台量价超预期》2026-02-09 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：茅台春节需求韧性 超预期，批价加速修复》2026-02-02 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：茅台批价回暖，关 注春节动销催化》2026-01-26 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：茅台重塑价格体 系，推进市场化改革》2026-01-19 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：i 茅台抢购热度 高，C 端触达效果显著》2026-01-12 范林泉 S0820525020001 021-32229888-25516 fanlinquan@ajzq.com 联系人 朱振浩 S0820125 ...

白酒行业 ESG 白皮书 第一章 白酒行业概览 -1/ 0 白酒行业 ESG 白皮书 第一章 白酒行业概览 1/ 2 | Kh | ਾਉਂ | | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘 柯 佚 | | | | 眉 | 部 | 高级注册ESG分析 | | 宋远飞 | | CFAESG证书:10 | | | | 国际通用ESG策略 | | H | 榴 | 碳交易员 | | 理 | 新 | 高级注册ESG分析 | | | | 碳管理师:CHINA | | 刘 | 湘 | 中级注册ESG分析 | | 刘 | 車 | CFAESG证书:11 | | 张文张 | | 高级注册ESG分析 高级注册ESG分析 CFAESG证书:12 | | 第一章 白酒行业概览 | | --- | | 07 白酒行业简介 | | 11 白酒行业的价值链 | | 20 | | 24 自酒行业的发展趋势 | | 第二章 白酒行业的ESG发展 | 第三章 | | --- | --- | | 29 自酒行业的ESG信息披露 | 43 | | 33 白酒行业的ESG核心议题 | 44 | | | 51 | | | 56 | | | 58 | ...

五粮液（000858.SZ）更新报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | | 李美仪(分析师) | 021-38038667 | limeiyi@gtht.com | S0880524080002 | 经营稳健，份额攀升 五粮液(000858) 公司近期出现人事变动，据公告不会对生产经营产生重大影响。2026 年元春五粮液 多个单品动销显著好于大盘，份额继续提升，作为高端龙头有望率先迎来预期修复。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 83,272 | 89 ...

餐饮复苏，价格企稳 [Table_Industry] 食品饮料 ——食品饮料行业周报 2026 年第 7 期 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | | 徐洋(分析师) | 021-38032032 | xuyang6@gtht.com | S0880520120008 | | 李美仪(分析师) | 021-38038667 | limeiyi@gtht.com | S0880524080002 | 本报告导读： 白酒分化加剧，大众品关注成长及 CPI 回升带来改善标的，糖税预计短期对含糖 饮料影响有限。 投资要点： 化》2026.02.24 食品饮料《顺周期预期企稳，消费价值凸显》 2026.02.08 食品饮料《高端白酒引领，提振市场信心》 2026.02.07 ...

本报告导读： 公司近期出现人事变动，据公告不会对生产经营产生重大影响。2026 年元春五粮液 多个单品动销显著好于大盘，份额继续提升，作为高端龙头有望率先迎来预期修复。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 83,272 | 89,175 | 73,983 | 76,623 | 80,321 | | (+/-)% | 12.6% | 7.1% | -17.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | | 净利润(归母) | 30,211 | 31,853 | 25,077 | 25,703 | 26,893 | | (+/-)% | 13.2% | 5.4% | -21.3% | 2.5% | 4.6% | | 每股净收益(元) | 7.78 | 8.21 | 6.46 | 6.62 | 6.93 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 23.3% | 23.9% | 18.5% | 18.5% | 18.9% | | ...

食品饮 2026 年 03 月 01 日 时代小说书 风险提示： 食品安全问题， 经济下行影响白酒及大众品需求。 《25Q4 白酒报表出清 食品分化改善- 食品饮料 2025 年报业绩前瞻》 2026/02/09 《春节茅台旺销验证观点 重申白酒进入战 略布局期——食品饮料行业周报 20260202-20260206》 2026/02/08 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资后示 投资分析意见：我们看好食品饮料板块 2026 年投资机会，核心方向是顺周期的白酒和餐饮供应 O 键，核心指标看 CPI。白酒板块维持判断，春节白酒行业整体好于预期，我们认为茅台价格一季度 筑底，行业迎本轮周期拐点，春节后茅台批价将保持坚挺。行业未来的趋势是缩量集中，从大鱼 吃小鱼到大 ...