双环传动 20260303 摘要 2025 年新能源业务营收约 42-44 亿元，国内市占率 42%-45%，纯电 三合一市占率超 60%，预计 2026 年市占率稳中有升。 同轴减速器单车价值量达 1,000 元以上，为平行轴 2 倍；公司供货占比 超 90%，2026 年下半年随车企导入进度有望放量。 注塑齿轮业务 2025 年营收约 8 亿元，毛利率升至 20%+；扫地机市占 率第一，正向 e-bike 及汽车执行机构拓展，为未来 2-3 年核心增长点。 RV 减速机国内市占率接近 30%，与纳博特斯克并列第一；已批量供应 库卡，ABB 处于验证期，目标 2026 年末量产。 匈牙利工厂 2026 年营收目标 5-6 亿元并争取盈亏平衡，年底产能达 60 万台套，旨在规避关税风险并覆盖欧美全球平台。 2026 年年降压力预计维持在 1.5%左右，公司通过集采与设备优化对冲； 未来 1-2 年年均资本开支约十余亿元，聚焦新能源与海外产能。 Q&A 在外部环境和行业景气发生明显变化的背景下，公司 2025 年经营表现与 2026 年 1 月经营走势如何，尤其是新能源齿轮业务的规模、增速与市场地位 是否发生变 ...

高端制造 | 2026 年 3 月 4 日 高端制造 2025 年盈利预览 2025 年盈利修复。我们覆盖的 13 家高端制造企业中，已有 6 家 发布 2025 年初步业绩，整体自 2024 年低位显著修复。工业自动 化板块受下游需求明显复苏带动；汇川技术、埃斯顿、绿的谐波 实现收入增长 21%–47%（预测区间中值），净利增长 21%– 122%。值得注意的是，埃斯顿工业机器人出货量超越国际同业， 成功实现盈利扭转。绿的谐波持续扩产谐波减速器，受益于机器 人应用场景持续多元化。新能源汽车领域，三花智控、拓普集团 仍维持 11%–18%的收入增长，惟增速放缓且毛利率承压。三花 凭借热管理技术优势，成功将AI 基础设施液冷业务打造成核心成 长动能。此外，全球及国内工程机械更新周期推动挖机销量创 2020 年后新高，支撑恒立液压上游液压业务。国产替代与海外 扩张仍是汇川等龙头企业的结构性双驱动；而 2025 年机器人产 业热度转化为优必选、越疆科技强劲的营收增长，亏损幅度同步 收窄。 2025 年第四季度：业绩受竞争与通膨干扰。从四季度细分表现 来看，行业整体呈现收敛态势。三花、汇川等高速成长龙头四季 度增速放 ...

2026 年 03 月 03 日 详解"里程费" 周一刻钟，大事快评（W145） 《小鹏比亚迪新技术发布,投资进入事件 催化密集期 ——2026/2/24-2026/3/1 汽 o 车周报》 2026/03/01 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱傅哲 A0230524080008 zhufz@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资提示: 核心风险：原材料价格波动风险,地缘政治风险,行业复苏不及预期 ● #研究报 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 长寸 分别 7 = 3 " + 行业点评 相关研究 详解"里程费"：近期市场关注"新能源车里程费"。我们将结合国内财税结构、汽车 产业发展背景及政策推进流程，分析其核心逻辑、现实动因及未来落地展望。 O 从现行财税体系来看,汽车的相关税费是公路建设与养护的核心资金来源。其中,养路 费自 2009 年起已正式并入成品油消费税, 当前每升成品油中约含 1 元相关税费, 该部 分收入通过国家转移支付拨至地方交通、公安等相关部门，全部用于公路的日常养护、 管理及运维，构 ...

股 票 研 究 燃机巨头订单旺盛，机器人基础模型 Pi 06 鲁棒性提升 [Table_Industry] 机械行业 机械行业周报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 刘麒硕(分析师) | 0755-23976666 | liuqishuo@gtht.com | S0880525080005 | 本报告导读： 上周（2026/2/24-2026/2/27）机械设备指数涨跌幅为+4.40%。燃机巨头订单旺盛，GEV 排产达 2029 年，地缘政治动荡推升油服设备景气上行。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 机械行业《春节后气体整体表现偏弱；广钢气体 中标海南商业航天发射场氦气采购项目》 2026.03.01 机械行业《具身模型 Pi 06 鲁棒性大幅提升，国 内人形初创百亿估值俱乐部增加至 6 家》 2026.02.28 机械行业《出口链月度跟踪：主要航线海运费同 ...

行 业 及 产 业 2026 年 03 月 03 日 详解"里程费" 看好 ——一周一刻钟，大事快评（W145） 《小鹏比亚迪新技术发布，投资进入事件 催化密集期 ——2026/2/24-2026/3/1 汽 车周报》 2026/03/01 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱傅哲 A0230524080008 zhufz@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： ⚫ 核心风险：原材料价格波动风险，地缘政治风险，行业复苏不及预期 点 评 行 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 业 研 究 / 行 业 汽车 相关研究 ⚫ 详解"里程费"：近期市场关注"新能源车里程费"。我们将结合国内财税结构、汽车 产业发展背景及政策推进流程，分析其核心逻辑、现实动因及未来落地展望。 ⚫ 从现行财税体系来看，汽车的相关税费是公路建设与养护的核心资金来源。其中，养路 费自 2009 年起已正式并入成品油消费税，当前每升成品油中约含 1 元相关税费，该部 分收入通过国家转移支付拨至 ...

2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 汽车 沪深300 汽车研究团队 邓健全（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090003 赵悦媛（联席首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790525100003 汽车 赵旭杨（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523090002 傅昌鑫（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090005 徐剑峰（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090004 王镇涛（研究员） 证书编号：S0790124070021 相关研究报告 《1 月新能源车出口量同比翻倍，创历 史同期新高—行业周报》-2026.2.14 《1 月重卡批发销量约 10 万辆，蔚来 2026Q4 经营利润转正—行业周报》 -2026.2.8 《FSD 付费用户渗透率超 12%，2025 全球人形机器人出货量同比增长 5 倍 —行业周报》-2026.2.1 数据中心分布式电源需求上行，产业链有望受益 ——行业周报 | 邓健全（分析师） | 赵悦媛（分析师） | 王镇涛（联系人） | ...

on 26-Feb-2026 26 February 2026 Asia Industrial Technology and Asia Emerging Robotics Humanoid Robotics: The path to 1 million annual shipment Jay Huang, Ph.D. +852 2123 2631 jay.huang@bernsteinsg.com Dien Wang, Ph.D. +852 2123 2622 dien.wang@bernsteinsg.com Weibin Liang, Ph.D. +852 2123 2666 weibin.liang@bernsteinsg.com Humanoid robot performance continues to impress (Asia Emerging Robotics: Key surprises from the 2026 Spring Festival Gala), but investors also continue to challenge its actual use and path ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The demand for distributed power sources in North America is increasing due to the mismatch between the expansion of traditional power grids and the rapid construction of data centers, creating opportunities for on-site power generation and backup power equipment [5][16] - The automotive sector is experiencing a shift towards high-end luxury passenger vehicles, with expectations of increased performance as product matrices expand [8] - The automotive parts industry is expected to see an upward trend in profitability due to reduced competition and expansion in downstream markets [8] Summary by Sections 1. Data Center Distributed Power Demand - The power supply gap in North America is widening, leading to increased demand for distributed power sources [16] - Major tech companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures for data centers, with a total expected expenditure of approximately $650 billion (about 4.58 trillion RMB) in 2026 [16][17] - The total installed capacity of data centers in the U.S. is projected to grow from about 17 GW in 2025 to approximately 50 GW by 2030 [16] 2. Industry News Highlights - XPeng Motors announced that Volkswagen will be the first customer for its second-generation VLA model [6] - Huawei's autonomous driving system recorded over 470 million kilometers during the Spring Festival, equivalent to 190,000 round trips between Beijing and Shanghai [6] - NIO's chip subsidiary completed its first round of financing, raising over 2.2 billion RMB [6] 3. Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance this week saw the CSI 300 index increase by 1.08%, while the automotive sector rose by 0.59%, ranking 23rd among A-share industries [7][43] - The passenger vehicle index decreased by 1.41%, with GAC Group and NIO leading the gains [7][46] - The commercial vehicle index increased by 1.41%, with Hailun Zhe and Weichai Power leading the gains [7][50] 4. Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, the demand for domestic high-end luxury vehicles is exceeding expectations, with recommended stocks including JAC Motors and Seres, while benefiting stocks include Geely [8] - In the parts sector, companies like Desay SV and Zhejiang Xiantong are recommended due to expected profitability improvements [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [59]. Core Insights - The automotive parts sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.73%, ranking first among the SW automotive indices, with a year-to-date increase of 6.76% [3][18]. - The robotics sector experienced a slight increase of 0.08% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 2.63%, but underperformed compared to the automotive parts sector [3][30]. - Key developments include a strategic partnership between Zhiyuan Robotics and Minshi Group to accelerate the localization and deployment of robotics technology in Europe [3][41]. Summary by Sections Automotive Parts Sector Weekly Review - The automotive parts sector ranked first in the SW automotive index this week, with a year-to-date performance of +6.76% [3][18]. - The sector's PE (TTM) is at 88.37% historical percentile, and PB (LF) is at 81.92% historical percentile as of February 27, 2026 [3][28]. Robotics Sector Weekly Review - The robotics index increased by 0.08% this week, with a year-to-date performance of +2.63% [3][30]. - The latest PE (TTM) for the robotics sector is at 49.89% historical percentile, and PB (LF) is at 57.01% historical percentile as of February 27, 2026 [40]. Key Stock Tracking - Notable weekly gainers include Xingyuan Zhuomei (+10.64%), Bertley (+7.15%), and Feilong Co. (+7.11%) [3][48]. - Core stocks in the automotive parts sector include Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., Minshi Group, and Junsheng Electronics, with specific recommendations based on EPS and PE dimensions [54]. Investment Recommendations - For the automotive parts sector, focus on structural opportunities by selecting product-oriented companies and those entering high-value segments to enhance ASP [54]. - In the robotics sector, look for certainty in opportunities, particularly with the anticipated release of Optimus V3 and the application of domestic manufacturers like Xiaopeng and Yushu [54].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the growth and advancements in the robotics industry, particularly with the introduction of new products and strategic partnerships in the European market [1] - The China Securities Robotics Index rose by 0.52% as of February 26, 2026, with notable increases in stocks such as Dazhong Laser (up 10.00%) and Yuntian Lifeng (up 6.91%) [1] - Zhiyuan announced its entry into the German market, unveiling a full range of general-purpose embodied robot products and signing a strategic cooperation agreement with Minshi Group to accelerate local deployment of robotics technology in Europe [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Robotics Index accounted for 54.66% of the index, including companies like iFlytek and Huichuan Technology [2] - The Robotics ETF by Harvest (159526) closely tracks the China Securities Robotics Index, focusing on companies involved in system solutions, digital workshops, automation equipment manufacturing, and other robotics-related sectors [2] - Investors without stock accounts can access the robotics industry development opportunities through the Harvest Robotics ETF linked fund (024620) [3]