证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 26 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：缓步登高 [Table_Title2] [Table_Summary] 2 月 26 日，股债两市止盈力量均有提升，节后股市迎来两连涨，上证指数一度接近前高，部分资金阶段性兑 现，大盘股指小幅下跌，科创板块出于事件利好，延续上涨行情； 债市受制于消息面扰动与增量利多不足，市场 情绪转弱，长债板块全线调整。 权益市场放量震荡。万得全 A上涨 0.21%，全天成交额 2.56 万亿元，较昨日（2 月 25 日）放量 757 亿元。 港股方面，恒生指数下跌 1.44%，恒生科技下跌 2.87%。南向资金净流出 73.66 亿港元，其中美团和东方电气分 别净流入 3.11 亿港元和 1.25 亿港元，而中国海洋石油、阿里巴巴则分别净流出 8.94 亿港元和 8.88 亿港元。 市场博弈氛围浓厚，后续量能是关键。万得全 A 触及前高后持续震荡，前高处的亏损筹码形成上涨阻力。事 实上，尽管指数连续三日上涨，但上涨只数和涨停只数却逐日下降（2 月 24 日 4003 只上涨，共 111 只涨停； ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][26]. Core Insights - The report highlights the support of tax incentives for marine oil and gas development and natural gas import utilization, aiming to enhance domestic oil and gas supply capabilities and ensure national energy security [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the increasing importance of imported natural gas in China's energy supply, with a focus on stabilizing costs through tax refunds on eligible imports [5][14]. - The marine oil and gas sector is identified as a strategic focus for future development, with significant investments expected to continue in the coming years [6][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Policy Commentary - The Ministry of Finance, Customs, and the State Taxation Administration issued a notification on tax incentives for energy resource exploration and development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, including exemptions on import duties for essential equipment used in marine oil and gas exploration [4]. - The policy aims to reduce the import costs of marine oil and gas exploration equipment, thereby enhancing project internal rates of return and promoting deep-sea oil and gas field development [5][22]. Market Trends - Global marine oil and gas exploration spending has been on the rise, with investments exceeding $100 billion in 2022 and expected to remain high in the coming years [6]. - China's marine oil and gas exploration and production expenditures are projected to continue increasing, with CNOOC's capital expenditure for 2024 estimated at 132.7 billion yuan, reflecting a growth trend [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as CNOOC, CNOOC Services, and CNOOC Development due to the favorable tax policies that will lower equipment procurement costs and enhance project profitability [5][22]. - It also recommends monitoring China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and CNOOC in light of the tax refund mechanism for imported natural gas, which is expected to mitigate cost fluctuations, especially during high gas price periods [5][22].

京津冀GDP连跨六个万亿台阶 建设具全球影响力国际科技创新中心 中新网北京2月26日电 (记者 杜燕)京津冀协同发展战略实施12年来，北京积极发挥"一核"辐射带动作 用，强化与天津、河北协同联动，共绘"一张图"，共下"一盘棋"。十二年间，京津冀经济总量从2014年 的5.95万亿元增长至2025年的近12万亿元，连续跨越六个万亿元台阶。京津冀发挥"一核两翼"牵引作 用，强化协同创新和产业协作，促进基本公共服务共建共享，稳步推进区域高质量发展。 经济实力稳步增强 数据显示，十二年来，经济总量持续扩大。三地经济总量从2014年的5.95万亿元上升至2025年的近12万 亿元，连续跨越六个万亿元台阶，总量实现翻番。 按不变价格计算，2025年京津冀地区生产总值比上年增长5.4%，高于全国平均水平0.4个百分点，三地 分别实现地区生产总值52073亿元、18540亿元和49305亿元，分别增长5.4%、4.8%和5.6%，"十四五"期 间年均增速分别为5.2%、4.4%和5.4%。 京津冀地区产业加快转型升级。区域三次产业构成由2020年的4.7：27.7：67.6变化为2025年的4.1： 25.8：70.1，第三 ...

人民网内罗毕2月25日电(记者黄炜鑫)坎帕拉消息：新春佳节，万家团圆、举国欢庆之际，中国海油乌干达翠鸟油田项目现场，数百名中外员工坚守岗位， 全力以赴推进项目建设。在喜庆祥和的春节氛围中，中外员工通过包饺子、飞盘比赛、剪窗花等富有中国传统文化特色的活动，共同迎接新春，绘就了一 幅"中乌员工共度中国年"的海外奋斗图景。 中国海油乌干达翠鸟油田开发项目现场。中国海油供图 翠鸟油田项目位于乌干达西部阿尔伯特湖区，是中国海油在海外的重要油气投资项目，预计于今年建成投产。今年春节期间，项目现场仍有数百名中外员工 坚守岗位，全力推进投产前各项准备工作。 为丰富员工春节期间的业余生活，公司在翠鸟油田现场组织了包饺子、飞盘友谊赛、篮球联赛等活动。中乌员工自发组队参与，在互动协作中增进情谊。生 产部员工吴锦亮表示："虽然今年不能回家过年，但过年期间能和中外同事一起包饺子、打比赛，也一样感受到了浓浓的中国年味，这样的活动也搭建了一 座中乌文化交流的桥梁。" 公司还举办了中国剪纸文化交流体验活动。中方员工通过PPT、视频、图片等形式生动讲解了春节习俗和剪纸技艺，随后中乌员工一起动手体验中国特色的 剪纸活动。乌干达员工阿米娜说："这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the active trading of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF Guangfa (520900) and emphasizes the attractiveness of high dividend assets and growth-oriented stocks in the current low macro interest rate environment [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The macro interest rates are at historical lows, prompting a focus on companies with strong technical capabilities and excellent cash flow, as well as undervalued high-dividend quality state-owned enterprises [1] - The trend of low interest rates and policies encouraging long-term capital inflow into the market supports the view that dividend assets remain a worthwhile long-term investment direction [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF Guangfa (520900) and its offshore links (022719/022720) closely track the CSI China New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index (931722.CSI) [1] - The ETF has a significant allocation to leading state-owned enterprises such as the three major oil companies, the three major telecommunications operators, and China Shenhua, showcasing notable value style and defensive characteristics [1] - This investment vehicle provides investors with a convenient entry point to allocate to Hong Kong dividend assets, balancing stable returns with long-term value [1]

然而现在菲律宾就遇上"大劫"。 家里的主力气田眼看就要干了，电不够用的窟窿越扯越大，老百姓日常用电、工厂开工都得受影响。 就在这生死攸关的时候，菲律宾能源界大佬直接喊话：别硬扛了，跟中国合作开发礼乐滩，才是唯一的 出路！ 能源告急，菲陷入两难 菲律宾现在的能源难题，真不是吓唬人的，是实打实逼到家门口了。 菲律宾经济的核心区域，全靠马兰帕亚天然气田撑着，可这气田现在已经快撑不住了。 说句实在的，这个气田对菲律宾太重要了——人口最多、工厂最多的吕宋岛，差不多40%的电都来自 这。 前言 能源，可以说是一个国家发展的生命线也不为过。 简单讲，吕宋岛的灯能不能亮、工厂能不能正常运转，一大半都得看这个气田的脸色。 可现在的情况是，马兰帕亚气田已经进入倒计时，再过几年就彻底没气了。 这就意味着，菲律宾用不了多久，就得面临大面积停电，电费还得一个劲往上涨。 大概有980亿立方英尺的天然气储量，一天能产出6000万立方英尺。 马科斯还特意夸这个新气田，说它产能不小，能赶上刚开发时的马兰帕亚气田，里面还藏着值钱的凝析 油。 本来菲律宾的能源成本就不低，这么一来，不管是普通家庭过日子，还是企业开工生产，都会更难。 为了应付这个急 ...

陕京管道系统日均输气量约2亿立方米，最大日输气量突破3.09亿立方米，有力保障了首都北京95%以 上的天然气需求。自1997年陕京一线投产以来，该系统已实现"28年零中断"安全平稳运行，累计输送的 8000亿立方米天然气折合替代标煤约10.7亿吨，减排二氧化碳11.7亿吨，环保效益相当于种植了覆盖 36.33亿公顷的阔叶林。2025年，北京市空气质量优良天数为311天，同比增加21天，空气质量优良天比 率达85.2%，首次超过八成，"蓝天幸福感"成为民众实实在在的获得感。 保供能力持续升级的背后，是管网互联互通资源统筹与智能化技术运维支撑的双重赋能。位于河北的安 平作业区作为该管道系统的关键枢纽，以"七进十出"工艺布局实现与"北气南下"能源大通道等国家主干 管道的互联互通，每日可向下游增输近1亿立方米天然气。在北京，密云作业区则创新推行智能巡检机 器人与人工巡检深度融合模式，搭配AI视频分析系统与智慧管控平台，大幅减少70%的重复性工作量， 实现设备运行状态实时监测与安全风险智能预警，稳定保障天然气输送。 8000亿立方米的输气成绩单，既是民生保供的责任答卷，也是绿色发展的生态答卷，更是科技赋能的创 新答卷。 ...

Group 1 - The oil and gas ETF Huatai Fuhua (159309) opened down 0.80%, priced at 1.484 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the ETF include China National Petroleum Corporation down 0.64%, China National Offshore Oil Corporation down 0.77%, and Sinopec down 0.31% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Oil and Gas Resource Index return rate, managed by Huatai Fuhua Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2 - Since its establishment on May 31, 2024, the ETF has returned 49.55%, with a one-month return of 16.14% [1]

Core Insights - International oil prices have significantly increased, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $66.31 per barrel, a weekly increase of 6.39%, and Brent crude oil futures at $71.49 per barrel, a weekly increase of 6.04%. The rise is attributed to ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, along with geopolitical concerns regarding potential U.S. actions against Iran [1][4]. Industry Dynamics - Among 100 tracked chemical products, 33 saw price increases, 8 experienced declines, and 59 remained stable during the week of February 17-24. Approximately 60% of products had month-over-month price increases, while 29% saw declines, and 11% remained unchanged [3]. - The top products with the highest weekly price increases included WTI crude oil, pure benzene (FOB Korea), naphtha (Singapore), paraxylene (PX Southeast Asia), and ammonium nitrate (Shaanxi Xinghua) [3]. - Conversely, the products with the largest weekly price declines were toluene (East China), calcium carbide (East China), nitric acid (East China), dichloromethane (East China), and multi-fluoride (002407) cryolite [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - As of February 13, U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.735 million barrels per day, an increase of 22,000 barrels from the previous week and 238,000 barrels from the same period last year. U.S. oil demand averaged 21.648 million barrels per day, up by 54,100 barrels from the previous week [4]. - U.S. crude oil inventories, including strategic reserves, totaled 835.3 million barrels, a decrease of 8.8 million barrels from the previous week [4]. - The natural gas market saw NYMEX futures closing at $2.99 per MMBtu, with a weekly decline of 1.32%. U.S. natural gas inventories totaled 20.7 trillion cubic feet, down 14.4 billion cubic feet from the previous week [4]. Price Trends in Dyes - The price of disperse dyes increased, with an average market price of 25,000 yuan per ton as of February 25, reflecting a weekly increase of 19.05%, a monthly increase of 38.89%, and a year-over-year increase of 47.06% [5]. - The key intermediate for disperse dyes, a reducing agent, has seen a significant price increase, with projections indicating a rise from 25,000 yuan per ton to 100,000 yuan per ton by February 2026 [5]. Investment Recommendations - The SW basic chemical sector's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 29.88, at the 85.25% historical percentile, while the price-to-book ratio is 2.69, at the 78.35% historical percentile. The SW oil and petrochemical sector's P/E ratio is 15.90, at the 48.79% historical percentile, and the P/B ratio is 1.54, at the 53.69% historical percentile [6]. - Investment focus for February includes undervalued industry leaders, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and electronic materials companies amid strong downstream demand [2][7]. - Long-term investment themes include traditional chemical leaders showing resilience, benefiting from new materials and improved industry conditions, and sectors like refining, polyester, dyes, organic silicon, pesticides, refrigerants, and phosphorus chemicals [7].

石化ETF(159731)，场外联接(华夏中证石化产业ETF发起式联接A：017855；华夏中证石化产业ETF发 起式联接C：017856)。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 截至2026年2月26日9:53，中证石化产业指数(H11057)上涨0.86%，成分股盐湖股份上涨8.51%，蓝晓科 技上涨4.23%，藏格矿业上涨4.02%，和邦生物上涨3.12%，浙江龙盛上涨2.98%。石化ETF(159731)上涨 1.13%， 冲击3连涨。流动性方面，截至2月25日，石化ETF近1月日均成交2.17亿元。资金流入方面，石 化ETF近12个交易日合计"吸金"1.46亿元。 国海证券分析称，节后需求回暖叠加库存低位，关注春节后聚氨酯涨价行情。每年2月前后是聚氨酯产 品的传统涨价节点之一，这主要是由于聚氨酯的主要消费市场比如中国大陆、中国台湾、越南等东南亚 国家和地区处于春节假期。此外，中东市场处于斋月期，节日备货需求提升，使得MDI和聚醚等聚氨酯 厂家顺利出货，库存降至低位。 石化ETF(159731)紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，截至2026年1月30日，中证石化产业指数(H11057)前十大 权重股分别为 ...