Core Viewpoint - The Chinese pig market faced significant challenges in 2025, characterized by a prolonged downturn in prices, deepening losses for pig farming enterprises, and a shift towards proactive risk management strategies in response to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and regulatory pressures [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - In 2025, the average price of lean pigs was 13.80 yuan/kg, with prices dropping significantly, reaching as low as 11 yuan/kg in October, marking a period of deep losses for the industry [2][4]. - The overall pig output in 2025 was projected at 747 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with pork production exceeding 60 million tons for the first time [3]. - The average PSY (pigs weaned per sow per year) increased from 21 in 2024 to 26 in 2025, enhancing the supply capacity and exacerbating the supply pressure [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Leading company Muyuan Foods sold 77.981 million pigs in 2025, an increase of 6.379 million from 2024, but its total sales revenue fell to 132.811 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 3.4 billion yuan from the previous year due to lower sales prices [4]. - By December 2025, self-breeding and external purchasing models faced significant losses, with average losses of 62 yuan per head for self-breeding and 210 yuan per head for purchased piglets [2]. Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - Companies are increasingly adopting proactive risk management strategies, including forming specialized futures teams and implementing detailed hedging operations to mitigate the impacts of price volatility [1][5]. - Futures hedging has become a critical component of business operations, allowing companies to lock in profits and stabilize earnings despite low market prices [6][8]. - The participation of over 3,000 industry clients in pig futures trading indicates a growing trend towards using futures as a risk management tool, with 24 out of 32 major pig enterprises engaging in futures transactions [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Shennong Group reported significant growth in its pig farming business for the year 2025, indicating strong production performance and effective piglet cultivation [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - In 2025, Shennong Group sold a total of 3.0742 million pigs, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.34% [1] - The sales revenue for the year reached 4.729 billion yuan, which is a 5.21% increase compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Monthly Performance - In December 2025, the sales volume showed a remarkable year-on-year growth of 48.51%, indicating an acceleration in sales performance [1] - The continuous growth in pig sales and revenue reflects the company's strong profitability resilience [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The demand for live pigs has negative feedback [1] - The trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 13,030 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 50; Sichuan's is 12,950 yuan/ton, up 100 year-on-year; Guangdong's is 12,760 yuan/ton with no year-on-year change [3] - **Futures Prices**: The price of live pig 2603 is 11,785 yuan/ton, down 25 year-on-year; 2605 is 12,260 yuan/ton, up 5; 2607 is 12,940 yuan/ton with no year-on-year change [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For live pig 2603, the trading volume is 101,121 lots, an increase of 18,488 from the previous day, and the open interest is 171,415 lots, up 1,785; for 2605, the trading volume is 29,533 lots, up 3,806, and the open interest is 97,142 lots, up 3,228; for 2607, the trading volume is 6,709 lots, up 732, and the open interest is 43,911 lots, up 978 [3] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of live pig 2603 is 1,245 yuan/ton, up 75 year-on-year; 2605 is 770 yuan/ton, up 45; 2607 is 90 yuan/ton, up 50. The spread between 2603 and 2605 is -475 yuan/ton, down 30 year-on-year, and between 2605 and 2607 is -680 yuan/ton, up 5 [3] 3.2 Market Information - Yunnan Shennong registered 85 lots of warehouse receipts on December 4; Guizhou Fuyuan registered 23 lots on December 5; Dekang registered 225 lots on December 10 and 150 lots on December 11; Yangxiang registered 40 lots on December 10; COFCO registered 300 lots on December 15 and 150 lots on December 29; Muyuan registered 40 lots on December 23 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The swine breeding industry is experiencing a gradual capacity reduction, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics in the future, despite ongoing short-term oversupply and industry losses [1][5][14]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand situation for swine is expected to improve, with continued oversupply pressure in the first half of 2026, leading to sustained industry losses [1][5][17]. - The average price of live pigs in China for January to November 2025 was 14.64 CNY/kg, with a projected annual average of 14.5 CNY/kg, down from 17 CNY/kg in 2024 [15]. - The number of breeding sows in China decreased to 39.9 million by October 2025, marking a 1.1% month-on-month decline and a 2.2% year-on-year decline, indicating a confirmed trend of capacity reduction [6][18]. Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The capacity reduction is driven by a combination of industry losses and policy regulations, with the Ministry of Agriculture holding multiple meetings to discuss capacity control measures [7][18]. - Key regulatory measures include reducing the number of breeding sows, maintaining a slaughter weight limit of 120 kg, and restricting financial support for new capacity projects [18][20]. Group 3: Industry Structure and Efficiency - The concentration of the swine breeding industry has increased, with the market share of the top ten listed companies rising to 24.98% in the first half of 2025, up 1.27 percentage points from 2024 [20]. - The average pigs per sow (PSY) is expected to improve, with a projected increase to 24.03 heads in 2024, and leading companies like Muyuan Foods achieving a PSY of 29 by September 2025 [20]. Group 4: Cost and Profitability - Cost management is identified as a critical factor for companies to achieve excess returns and long-term growth, especially during down cycles [1][14]. - The industry is expected to see significant differentiation in performance, with companies that have cost advantages likely to maintain moderate expansion, while less efficient producers face further elimination [1][14]. Group 5: Market Outlook and Consumer Demand - The demand for pork is projected to remain stable, with 2024 pork production and sales estimated at 57.06 million tons, and a slight increase in consumption expected in 2026 due to government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [22][23]. - Seasonal fluctuations in demand are anticipated, with a notable increase in piglet numbers in early 2025, but supply pressures are expected to persist into the first half of 2026, particularly around the Lunar New Year [23].

Group 1 - The live pig futures market in China has shown stable operation and increasing liquidity over the past five years, becoming an important tool for the industry to manage cycles and stabilize operations [1] - In 2025, the total trading volume of live pig futures reached 17.993 million contracts, with an average daily trading volume of 74,000 contracts and an average open interest of 213,000 contracts, indicating significant growth from 2021 [1] - Over 3,000 industry enterprises are involved in live pig futures trading, with 24 out of 32 major pig companies participating in trading, delivery, or becoming delivery warehouses [1] Group 2 - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has made several adjustments to contract specifications to enhance pricing accuracy and improve delivery efficiency, including the introduction of vehicle weighing methods [2] - The exchange has supported 774 "insurance + futures" projects, covering over 1.54 million live pigs and providing compensation of 748 million yuan, benefiting 28,700 farming households [2] - Live pig futures have become a reference for macro management departments in assessing industry trends and formulating policies, with market prices quickly reflecting the impact of related policies [2] Group 3 - Sichuan Dekang Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Food Group has actively participated in hedging since the launch of live pig futures, using it as a regular operational tool to lock in profits [3] - The company has seen an increase in its hedging scale alongside its growth in pig farming, and live pig futures prices have become a key reference for various operational decisions [3] - The rapid maturity of live pig futures has led to increased willingness and awareness of hedging among industry participants, with companies offering services to help farmers lock in prices [3]

与此同时，随着市场的发展，部分大宗商品综合服务商也开始借助期现联动为养殖主体提供多种模式的 定价和销售服务。中基商贸(浙江)有限公司生猪冻品板块总经理李坤坤表示，一方面，期货价格让市场 信息越来越透明，使得各类企业、农户拥有一致的信息量。另一方面，生猪期货可以帮助企业稳定经 营，从而把更多精力从研判价格转移到提升生产效率、改善饲料配方等方面。(完)【编辑:曹子健】 产业参与方面，有3000余家产业企业参与生猪期货交易，出栏量达到百万头的32家猪企中有24家参与过 生猪期货交易、交割或成为生猪期货交割库。牧原股份、神农集团、海大集团、天康生物、巨星农牧、 大北农、唐人神等多家上市公司发布过涉及生猪期货的套期保值公告。交割布局方面，生猪期货交割库 布局广、交割能力充足。目前，生猪期货交割区域包括22个省(区、市)，覆盖我国主要生猪养殖省份。 服务乡村振兴方面，五年来，大商所共支持开展生猪"保险+期货"项目774个，涉及现货量超1540万头， 已结项的项目累计实现赔付7.48亿元，覆盖河南、四川、湖南等养殖大省，惠及养殖户2.87万户次。价 格发现方面，生猪期货也为宏观管理部门研判产业走势和制定宏观政策、为养殖企业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The live pig futures market in China has developed significantly over the past five years, becoming an essential tool for stabilizing operations in the pig farming industry and enhancing its resilience against cyclical fluctuations [3][9]. Market Capacity - The liquidity of live pig futures has steadily improved, with the total trading volume reaching 17.993 million contracts and an average daily trading volume of 74,000 contracts by 2025, compared to 25,000 contracts and 60,000 contracts in 2021 [3][9]. - The average open interest has increased to 213,000 contracts, with levels maintained above 300,000 contracts since November 2025 [3][9]. Industry Participation - Over 3,000 industry enterprises are involved in live pig futures trading, with 24 out of 32 major pig companies participating in trading or delivery [3][9]. - Notable companies such as Muyuan Foods, Shennong Group, and others have issued announcements related to hedging with live pig futures [3][9]. Delivery Layout - The delivery network for live pig futures has expanded to cover 22 provinces, with 58 delivery warehouses established, up from 14 at the time of launch [4][10]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has optimized contract specifications and introduced new delivery methods to enhance efficiency and service to industry participants [4][10]. Risk Management and Support for Rural Revitalization - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has supported 774 "insurance + futures" projects, covering over 15.4 million pigs and providing compensation of 748 million yuan to farmers [4][10]. - These initiatives have benefited approximately 28,700 farming households across major pig-producing provinces [4][10]. Price Discovery - Live pig futures serve as a reference for macroeconomic policy formulation and production planning for farming enterprises, reflecting policy impacts quickly in market prices [5][10]. - The futures market has become a critical tool for large-scale enterprises to manage price volatility and stabilize supply-demand dynamics in the industry [5][11]. Industry Insights - Companies like Sichuan Dekang Agricultural Group have actively engaged in hedging since the launch of live pig futures, using it as a standard operational method to secure profits [11][12]. - Shaanxi Shiyang Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. emphasizes the importance of futures in improving cash flow and stabilizing operations amid industry cycles [12][13]. Market Evolution - The rapid development of live pig futures has led to increased transparency in market information, allowing enterprises and farmers to make informed decisions [13]. - The market's growth reflects a deepening integration between futures and the real economy, with expectations for a more resilient and efficient live pig futures market in the future [13].

Company Restructuring - Nestlé China has announced the merger of its Wyeth Nutrition and Nestlé Infant Nutrition business units, effective January 1, 2026, forming a new Nestlé Nutrition business [1] - Joel Seah will lead the newly integrated Nestlé Nutrition team, which will be organized into three main functional areas: market development, sales and operations, and enabling functions [1] Market Dynamics - The infant formula market is facing challenges, with Nielsen IQ reporting a growth rate of only 0.6% in Q2 2025, and a decline in new births expected to weaken growth momentum [3] - The market is becoming increasingly fragmented, with leading companies like Yili, New Dairy Era, and FrieslandCampina expanding, while brands like Feihe are experiencing market share declines [4] Strategic Implications - The integration of the two business units is expected to reduce internal redundancies and create synergies, which is crucial in a highly competitive market [5] - The infant nutrition segment is seen as a cornerstone of Nestlé's performance in Greater China, especially as the region's organic growth rate fell by 10.4% in Q3 2025, continuing a downward trend [5]

2026 年 1 月 7 日 生猪：仍存累库行为 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | | 12980 | 100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | | 12850 | 0 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | | 12760 | -100 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | | 11810 | 150 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 12255 | | 145 | | | | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | | 12940 | 140 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较前日 ...

Market Strategy - The market continues to rise with increased volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index has broken through previous highs [5][10] - The overall A-share market saw a rise of 1.59%, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.50% and the ChiNext Index up by 0.75% [7] - The performance of the hard technology sector is leading, while the innovation growth sector is lagging [8] Industry Dynamics - Global sodium-ion battery shipments are expected to reach 9 GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 150% [26] - The main applications for sodium-ion batteries include energy storage, light electric vehicles, and AI data centers, with significant market share growth [27] - NVIDIA has launched the Rubin platform, designed for AI supercomputing, featuring six new chips that enhance training speed and reduce costs [28][29] Company Updates - Haizhi Science (002653.SZ) has received acceptance for its innovative drug HSK39297 for treating paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria [32] - Meiya Optoelectronics (002690) won a lawsuit with compensation exceeding 198 million yuan [34] - Yisheng (002458.SZ) reported a 40% year-on-year increase in white feather chick sales in December 2025, while breeding pig sales declined by 43% [36] - Shennong Group (605296.SH) sold 3.0742 million pigs in 2025, generating revenue of 4.729 billion yuan [38] - Taotao Vehicle (301345.SZ) expects a net profit of 800-850 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 85.5%-97.1% [41] - Ugreen Technology (301606.SZ) anticipates a net profit of 653-733 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of 41.26%-58.56% [43]