0 1 元宝和千问也都破亿 2026年春节，围绕C端入口的"三国杀"进入白热化阶段。三大巨头以红包、免单为杠杆，发动了一场规模空前的用户争夺战。春节即将结束，我们先简 单回顾一下三大巨头春节期间的动作。 腾讯元宝率先打响第一枪。2月1日，元宝正式启动"10亿元现金红包"，活动启动14小时后，元宝App登顶苹果App Store免费榜，日活跃用户暴涨 300%。 21天内，元宝更新迭代了159个功能，通过不断扩充的丰富玩法，实现了36亿次红包主页面点击，2.1亿次好友红包领取，6400万次关键词红包领取， 1100万次元宝派红包掉落，并且有49%抢红包用户来自三四线及以下城市。 当然，与元宝红包同时推出的"元宝派"才是腾讯这次春节AI大战的主要目的，AI社交实验性功能，试图让AI以群成员身份融入真实社交关系，在家族 群、兴趣社群等场景中提供答疑、调节氛围与协作支持。 元宝：率先挑战AI社交难题 AI对字节和阿里传统的网络效应是有比较大的冲击的，字节的数据网络效应建立的是信息找人的模式，但是AI时代人又变得主动来找信息，阿里的双边 网络效应靠的是电商平台的搜索入口价值，但是AI时代，这一过程可能被Agent去中介 ...

Market Trends - After the Spring Festival, the market shows a pattern where small-cap stocks outperform large-cap stocks, with a higher probability of market gains over 5, 10, and 20 trading days[2] - The CSI 2000 index has a significant increase of 10.4% with a 91% probability of rising in the 20 trading days post-holiday[14] Sector Performance - Technology and cyclical sectors are expected to lead, with notable gains in computer, communication, environmental protection, non-ferrous metals, steel, and textile sectors[2] - Consumer staples like food and beverage, banking, and household appliances are expected to lag behind[2] Spring Rally Dynamics - Historical data from 2016 to present indicates that 6 out of 10 spring rallies have led to a second wave of gains after an initial pullback[3] - The second wave of gains is often more profitable and closely tied to the prevailing market themes, which currently favor technology[3] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain confidence in the bull market, as the core drivers remain intact, with a suggested securities ratio of over 1.1 as a bullish signal[6] - Recommended sectors include military, media (gaming), AI applications, and core AI hardware, alongside materials benefiting from PPI improvements[33] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected macroeconomic policy changes, geopolitical tensions, and shifts in industrial policy[7][34][35]

Group 1 - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratio are Haotian International Investment (71.36%), China Telecom (71.32%), and Green Power Environmental (68.88%) [1][2] - Tencent Holdings, Xiaomi Group-W, and Meituan-W have seen the largest increases in holding amounts over the last five trading days, with increases of +1.391 billion, +983 million, and +931 million respectively [1][2] - The companies with the largest decreases in holding amounts over the last five trading days include WuXi Biologics (-481 million), Zijin Mining (-447 million), and Southern Hengsheng Technology (-344 million) [1][4] Group 2 - The latest holding ratios for the top 20 companies in Hong Kong Stock Connect show Haotian International Investment with 7.919 billion shares, China Telecom with 9.900 billion shares, and Green Power Environmental with 0.279 billion shares [2] - The top 10 companies with the largest increases in holding amounts over the last five trading days include China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (+315 million) and Zhaoyi Innovation (+309 million) [2][4] - The top 10 companies with the largest decreases in holding amounts include Pop Mart (-294 million) and SenseTime-W (-277 million) [4]

智通财经APP获悉，2月23日，中指研究院发布2025中国商业地产租金指数研究报告。2025年，消费市场平稳增 长，但下半年增速放缓。消费品以旧换新政策带动家电/3C、家具等品类零售额快速增长，但餐饮消费整体增长 放缓。多数零售商业项目仍选择以价换量降空置，重点城市商铺租金跌幅扩大。2025下半年，百街商铺平均租 金为24.05元/平方米/天，环比下跌0.47%，跌幅较2025上半年扩大0.12个百分点，全年累计下跌0.81%，跌幅较 2024年累计跌幅扩大0.39个百分点。 商铺租金指数运行分析 2025年以来，提振消费各项政策落地显效，消费市场保持平稳增长。2025年，我国实现社会消费品零售总额50.1 万亿元，同比增长3.7%，增速较2024年全年加快0.2个百分点，但6月以来单月增速连续7个月下滑。消费品以旧 换新政策效果明显，2025年商品零售同比增长3.8%，增速较2024年全年加快0.6个百分点；扩大服务消费政策多 点发力，带动服务消费潜力释放，2025年服务零售额同比增长5.5%，但餐饮收入增速下滑至3.2%。多数零售商 业项目仍选择以价换量降空置，重点城市商铺租金延续2024下半年以来下跌态 ...

前十大沽空偏离值排行 | 股票名称 | 沽空金额 | 沽空比率 | 偏离值↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 腾讯控股-R(80700) | 718.87 万元 | 95.69% | 46.66% | | 北控水务集团(00371) | 2003.99 万元 | 51.14% | 40.88% | | 中粮家佳康(01610) | 651.78 万元 | 49.54% | 40.50% | | 百奥赛图-B(02315) | 382.66 万元 | 40.57% | 38.35% | | 巨子生物(02367) | 1733.60 万元 | 51.28% | 38.24% | | 北京汽车(01958) | 487.93 万元 | 57.02% | 37.52% | | 小米集团-WR(81810) | 352.03 万元 | 81.53% | 37.28% | | 先声药业(02096) | 610.97 万元 | 49.63% | 37.17% | | 德康农牧(02419) | 559.96 万元 | 47.79% | 36.28% | | 江南布衣(03306) | 602 ...

在过去30多年的研究经历中，我一直在与各种数据打交道，因为只有准确的数据及数据之间的相互比 对，得出的结论才能令人信服。在数据面前，所有的形容词、感叹句都显得苍白。 市场经济实质上就是供需关系不断变化下的各种交易行为，按我的理解，交易大致可以分两类，一类是 现实经济下商品和服务的交易，另一类是虚拟经济下货币、有价证券及衍生品的交易。透过这些交易行 为和交易数据，可以对国内经济乃至全球经济有一个更深入的认识，或者可以纠正自己的认知偏差，也 有利于把握未来的趋势和投资机会。本篇属于感想而非论文，只是想和大家分享一下我是如何透过那些 数据来得出一些与众不同的结论。 下面我用一些交易数据的案例来谈谈我对经济的认知和对认知偏差的纠正。 中国出口金额占全球的比重 资料来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所（注：2025年为前三季度数据） 为何2025年的外贸顺差超过了1.19万亿美元，而出口金额占全球比重却是下降呢？这是因为我 国出口价格指数（美元）一直在往下走， 从2023年至2025年，我国出口价格指数累计下跌了约 19% ，大大超越其他发展中国家的跌幅。事实上，我国 PPI在过去15年中的涨幅为零 ，我称之 为"失去的十五 ...

Core Insights - Tencent Holdings (00700), Xiaomi Group-W (01810), and Meituan-W (03690) ranked as the top three in net inflow of southbound funds, with net inflows of 1.457 billion, 1.029 billion, and 1.022 billion respectively [1] - WuXi Biologics (02269), Zijin Mining (02899), and Southern Hengtong Technology (03033) experienced the highest net outflows, with net outflows of -493 million, -457 million, and -363 million respectively [1] - In terms of net inflow ratio, Southern East Selection (03441), Yuan Da Pharmaceutical (00512), and Anhui Wanshan Expressway (00995) led the market with ratios of 1937.29%, 149.39%, and 144.79% respectively [1] Net Inflow Rankings - Tencent Holdings (00700) had a net inflow of 1.457 billion, representing an increase of 11.22% with a closing price of 548.000 [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) saw a net inflow of 1.029 billion, with a net inflow ratio of 12.46% and a closing price of 37.100 [2] - Meituan-W (03690) recorded a net inflow of 1.022 billion, with a significant net inflow ratio of 30.48% and a closing price of 88.850 [2] Net Outflow Rankings - WuXi Biologics (02269) faced a net outflow of -493 million, with a net outflow ratio of -34.59% and a closing price of 41.400 [2] - Zijin Mining (02899) had a net outflow of -457 million, reflecting a -13.09% change with a closing price of 43.520 [2] - Southern Hengtong Technology (03033) experienced a net outflow of -363 million, with a net outflow ratio of -8.41% and a closing price of 5.380 [2] Net Inflow Ratio Rankings - Southern East Selection (03441) led with a net inflow ratio of 1937.29%, achieving a net inflow of 188 million and a closing price of 11.650 [3] - Yuan Da Pharmaceutical (00512) followed with a net inflow ratio of 149.39%, with a net inflow of 30.408 million and a closing price of 7.780 [3] - Anhui Wanshan Expressway (00995) had a net inflow ratio of 144.79%, with a net inflow of 12.383 million and a closing price of 13.580 [3]

Market Overview - The U.S. Q4 GDP growth was disappointing at only 1.4%, with government shutdown dragging down growth by 1 percentage point [6] - The December core PCE inflation exceeded expectations, rising by 3% year-on-year, which is higher than the 2.8% at the beginning of 2025 [20] - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump's global tariffs were illegal, affecting over $175 billion in tax refunds [19] - Major U.S. stock indices saw a rebound, with the S&P 500 up 0.69% and the Nasdaq up 0.90% [13] - The dollar index fell after four consecutive days of gains, while gold and silver prices increased significantly [6] Company News - Anthropic launched a new security tool, Claude, which caused a sell-off in cybersecurity stocks, with SailPoint and Okta dropping over 9% [23] - Nvidia is nearing a deal for a $30 billion stake in OpenAI, significantly lower than the previously announced $100 billion investment [23] - OpenAI has drastically reduced its spending target for 2030 to $600 billion, with a projected gross margin of 33% by 2025 [23][11] - SK Hynix reported that all customer demands cannot be met, indicating a continued rise in storage prices this year [24] Economic Indicators - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI reached a three-and-a-half-year high, driven by a rebound in Germany, while France remains below the growth line [7] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for February was reported at 51.2, the lowest in seven months, while the services PMI was at 52.3, the lowest in ten months [21] - Japan's Prime Minister announced plans to break the "excessive fiscal tightening" and increase investments in AI and other industries [8] Trade and Tariffs - The U.S. Trade Representative's office initiated a new Section 301 investigation covering most major trading partners, focusing on pharmaceutical pricing and digital service taxes [22] - Trump's administration plans to implement a 10% temporary import tariff starting February 24, 2025, for 150 days, with certain exemptions [22] - The Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs has left the issue of tax refunds to lower courts, with potential implications for future tariff policies [22]

春节期间，越来越多的AI大模型不断更新升级。传统年味与科技暖意的碰撞，让"云端团圆"有了更鲜活的模样。 在一家位于深圳的科技型公司，AI团队持续优化软件算法、调整算力，保障春节期间用户更好地使用软件的相关功能，为用 户创造一个充满科技感、趣味性和连接感的新年。 腾讯公司元宝AI项目组成员 池航：春节是中国最重要的传统节日，我们选择在这个时期推出各种社交场景下的新玩法，希望 通过AI让用户在春节期间的社交更加多姿多彩。 今年春节期间，多家AI大模型公司都在持续升级软件，不断满足用户各项需求，推出AI帮订电影票、订餐厅等复杂功能。 除了AI大模型的应用，今年春节，越来越多的消费者选择购买"电子年货"回家过年。参观数字灯会、体验智能互动，感受传 统年俗与前沿科技的深度融合，让这个新春增添了别样的科技暖意和新奇体验。 春节期间，在深圳华强北，融合AI、AR等新技术的科技产品成为消费新宠。 数据显示，近两个月，华强北销售前8名产品分别为：无人机、机器人、AI眼镜、AI玩具、AI手表等品类。这8类产品也成为 市民游客新春送礼、自用的热门选择。 消费者 张女士：AI类的翻译器，还有AI狗，玩具很多很多不一样的。我觉得都挺有 ...

2026年春节A股休市期间，外围海外市场并非风平浪静。 美股科技板块的深度调整，以及港股市场的大跌，使得大家对下周A股的走势捏了一把汗。 虽然展现出相对剧烈的分化、波动，但同时又有各种利好消息对冲，宏观微观都有，情况显得复杂多变。 美股大型科技巨头走势涨跌不一，有AI相关利好消息出现了企稳反弹，没有的则继续寻底。 原因很简单，一方面，华尔街对AI的投资回报率产生疑虑，同时对AI可能颠覆传统软件业的担忧情绪升温，导致大型科 技股遭到集中抛售； 另一方面，当时市场对于美联储的货币政策走向也表现出一定的紧张情绪。 那到底，下周重开的大A，会给我们什么样的表现？ 01 下跌 先看看春节假期，全球市场的表现是如何分化的？ 中概股整体上，则继续弱势。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数在2月13日至2月19日累计下跌0.50%，阿里巴巴、网易、百度等热门中概股均录得下跌，这为港股 节后开市蒙上了一层阴影。 果不其然，2月20日，港股春节后的首个交易日，市场非但没有迎来期盼中的"开门红"，恒指反而低开低走，最终收跌 1.10%，恒生科技指数更是大跌2.91%，科技股则全线下跌。 因此，下周A股重开的时候，需要警惕有可能出现的补跌，尤其是 ...