房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2026 年 1 月 21 日 房地产行业第 3 周周报（2026 年 1 月 10 日-2026 年 1 月 16 日） 新房、二手房成交同比降幅均收窄；央行下调商业用房购房贷款 首付比例 新房成交面积环比由负转正，同比降幅收窄；二手房成交面积环比增幅收窄，同比降 幅收窄；新房库存面积同环比均下降；去化周期同环比均上升。 核心观点 政策 投资建议 风险提示： 政策出台不及预期；销售与房价持续下行；市场信心修复不及预期。 相关研究报告 《地产后增量时代的机遇》（2025/08/10） 《单月销售与投资降幅扩大；开竣工降幅虽收窄， 但仍处于历史低位》（2025/07/17） 《70 城房价环比跌幅持续扩大；一线城市二手房价 跌幅大于二、三线城市》（2025/07/17） 《2025 年将成为房地产行业"由量转质，优化结构" 的关键年》（2025/05/12） 《"城市更新"成为楼市重要的增量筹码，维稳房 地产市场是当前扩内需的重要一环（25 年 4 月政治 局会议解读）》（2025/04/27） 证券分析师：夏亦丰 (8621)20328348 yifeng.xia@ ...

在房地产行业整体调整的背景下，2025年，全国法拍市场呈现"量价齐跌"的整体态势，同时城市分化持续加剧。数据显示，超七成高 价法拍住宅集中在北京、上海、深圳，核心地段稀缺豪宅频现溢价成交，显示出强劲的市场韧性。与此同时，买方策略趋于谨慎理 性，二拍逐渐成为市场主流成交渠道。 北上深高价法拍房"断层"领跑 图/中指研究院 中指研究院发布监测数据显示，2025年全国法拍市场累计挂拍各类房源71.9万套，同比下降6.6%；成交拍品16.9万套，同比下降 4.4%；总成交金额为2536.2亿元，同比下降幅度高达23.6%。市场整体清仓率（成交拍品/交易截止拍品）为23.5%。 相比之下，价格的调整更为明显。2025年各类法拍房源成交均价为4653元/平方米，同比下降12.7%；平均折价率（成交价/评估价） 为74.1%，意味着买家平均能以评估价的约7.4折购入资产。价格走低与房地产市场整体仍处于调整阶段、买方市场特征凸显有关，法 拍房买家普遍持谨慎态度，出价趋于理性。 从物业类型看，住宅依然是法拍市场的绝对核心。2025年，住宅类法拍房源成交11.3万套，成交总金额1315.8亿元，占各物业类型总 成交金额的51.9 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the rental yield in major cities has shifted from a negative outlook to a neutral stance due to the CPI turning positive and the continuous decline in risk-free rates. This indicates potential stabilization in asset prices in key cities [2]. - The rental yield in first-tier cities has increased from 1.6% in 2020 to 1.9% in 2025, although it remains below the mortgage loan rates and slightly above the risk-free rates. The "rental yield + CPI" metric is expected to improve as the CPI in some first-tier cities turns positive [4]. - Second-tier cities are showing signs of price stabilization, with the "rental yield + CPI" metric improving from 2.3% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 and maintaining that level in 2025. Cities like Hefei and Xi'an are expected to see further improvements in their rental yields [4]. Summary by Sections Rental Yield Analysis - The historical rental yield was 1.5%, but when adjusted for CPI, it is not considered low. The report emphasizes the need to differentiate between actual and nominal yields [4]. - The nominal rental yield is adjusted to account for potential inflation, making it a more comparable metric. The report suggests that the high inflation period has made the first-tier cities' rental yield of 1.5% equivalent to an international nominal yield of 3.5% [4]. Market Trends - The report notes that the rental yield plus CPI in first-tier cities is around 2.5%, which is now higher than the risk-free rate. This indicates a potential shift in market dynamics [5]. - The report also points out that the proportion of declining listing prices has increased, indicating a weakening in the second-hand housing market, with about 19% of listings showing price declines [4][18]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that as the CPI continues to rise and the risk-free rate declines, asset prices in key cities may transition from a negative outlook to a neutral one. This is particularly relevant for second-tier cities, which are expected to have a stronger rental yield plus CPI metric [4].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a decline with the ChiNext index dropping by 1.83% to 3276.64, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.3% and the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.22% [4][5] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.85 trillion yuan, an increase of 568 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with nearly 3400 stocks declining [5][6] Sector Performance - The satellite internet, commercial aerospace, and 6G concept sectors experienced significant declines, while the real estate, advanced packaging, cultural media, and retail sectors saw gains [4][5] - The retail sector showed strength with stocks like Xinhua Department Store and Shanghai Jiubai hitting the daily limit, following news from the National Development and Reform Commission about plans for a demand expansion strategy from 2026 to 2030 [5] Individual Stock Movements - Pop Mart saw a rise of over 10% after announcing a share buyback of 2.51 billion Hong Kong dollars, marking its first buyback since early 2024 [8][18] - Hualing Cable opened down over 9% and approached the daily limit down after announcing the termination of its acquisition of Hunan Xingxin Aerospace New Materials Co., Ltd [14] - Yidian Tianxia faced a limit down upon resuming trading [16] Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 324 billion yuan for 7-day terms at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 358.6 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing today [19]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a downturn, with major indices showing weakness and a potential technical correction expected before February. Analysts suggest focusing on fundamental performance rather than speculative trading [1][7]. Market Performance - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index drop by 0.30%, the Shenzhen Component by 1.22%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.83% during the morning session [1]. - The real estate sector showed resilience, with stocks like Chengdu Investment Holdings and Hefei Urban Construction hitting the daily limit [2]. - AI application stocks rebounded, with companies such as Zhejiang Wenhu and Tiandi Online also reaching the daily limit [3]. - The semiconductor sector experienced a surge, with Zhongwei Semiconductor rising by 20% [1]. - Consumer stocks, particularly in beauty and liquor, were active, while the commercial aerospace sector continued to decline [1]. Sector Insights - Real Estate: The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.3% month-on-month decline in new residential sales prices in first-tier cities, indicating a narrowing of the decline. Analysts expect policy adjustments in the first quarter, favoring companies with strong liquidity and product capabilities [2]. - AI Applications: The trend of AI applications is expected to continue, with hardware increasingly penetrating daily life across various sectors, including automotive and smart home devices. The software side is also seeing advancements in model inference capabilities [3]. - Technology Sector: According to Guosen Securities, the spring market is not over, and fluctuations may present good investment opportunities. The technology sector, particularly driven by AI, remains a key focus [4]. Analyst Opinions - Guosen Securities emphasizes that the spring market is ongoing, suggesting a balanced allocation strategy while focusing on technology growth driven by AI applications [4]. - Shenwan Hongyuan notes that while the commercial aerospace and AI sectors have upward trends, excessive trading may lead to a market correction. The A-share market has a foundation for mid-term growth, and patience is advised [5]. - Huatai Securities indicates a shift towards focusing on "performance fundamentals," suggesting adjustments in portfolio structure to avoid irrational speculation [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is expected to experience a noticeable decline in 2025, aligning with earlier predictions that companies would maintain positive cash flow and that there would be no financial risks throughout the year. The focus will shift from finance to economic aspects in 2026 [2]. - The anticipated theme for 2026 is "high-quality development," with an emphasis on urban renewal. Recommended companies include Vanke A, Poly Developments, China Overseas Development, and Longfor Group among others [59]. - The total investment in real estate development is projected to be 8.3 trillion yuan, with sales amounting to 8.4 trillion yuan, achieving the goal of no financial risks for the year. The industry is expected to continue reducing investment, primarily in construction, which will further alleviate spending pressures [59][60]. Summary by Sections Investment Overview - In 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment is expected to decline by 17.2% compared to 2024, with residential investment decreasing by 16.3% [13][11]. - The total sales amount for commercial housing is projected to drop by 12.6% year-on-year [10][11]. Sales and Construction Data - The total sales area of commercial housing for 2025 is estimated at 881 million square meters, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year decrease [25][10]. - The new construction area is expected to decline by 20.4% year-on-year, while the completion area is projected to decrease by 18.1% [18][9]. Funding Sources - The total funding for real estate development is anticipated to reach 9.31 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 13.4% [43][11]. - Domestic loans are expected to account for 15.14% of the funding sources, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.3% [47][49]. Market Dynamics - The unsold housing area at the end of 2025 is projected to be 766 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [60][37]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the real estate sector's impact on the economy, focusing on physical construction rather than virtual rental income [61].

Market Overview - On January 20, A-share indices weakened, with the ChiNext Index dropping over 1%, the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.27%, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.81%. Nearly 2,700 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets declined [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1 trillion, a decrease of over 40 billion compared to the previous day, with an expected total trading amount of over 2.7 trillion for the day [1] Index Performance - Shanghai Composite Index: 4,102.05, down 0.29%, with 1,179 gainers and 1,075 losers [2] - Shenzhen Component Index: 14,171.44, down 0.86%, with 1,348 gainers and 1,471 losers [2] - ChiNext Index: 3,303.22, down 1.03%, with 636 gainers and 728 losers [2] AI Sector - The AI4S concept showed signs of recovery, with stocks like Subote hitting the daily limit, and ZhiTe New Materials reaching a historical high. Other companies such as Qicai Chemical and Zhongcheng Technology also saw gains. Citic Securities noted that as model capabilities improve, especially in reasoning and long-window costs, the commercialization of AI downstream applications is accelerating [2] Solar Energy Sector - The photovoltaic concept continued to rebound, with Haiyou New Materials rising over 10%. Institutions pointed out that SpaceX has confirmed the P-type HJT battery technology route for large-scale economic production of space solar cells, marking a potential turning point for space photovoltaic energy as a strategic solution for commercial aerospace and high-end applications [3] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector experienced a volatile rebound, with City Investment Holdings hitting the daily limit and other companies like Poly Development and China Merchants Shekou also rising. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month in December 2025, with Shanghai seeing a slight increase of 0.2% [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights three major trends expected in 2026: 1) The adjustment in the real estate market is likely nearing its end, with current price adjustments being relatively sufficient; 2) There are structural opportunities for "good houses" as the market enters a phase of differentiation, with a focus on high-quality residential developments; 3) The recovery of the Hong Kong property market is anticipated to continue, driven by multiple favorable factors [5][40]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.1%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.0%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) fell by 3.5% during the week [5][8]. - In terms of individual stocks, the top five gainers were *ST Yangguang (+10.2%), Daming City (+8.8%), Tibet City Investment (+5.0%), Nandu Property (+4.7%), and Guangming Real Estate (+4.7%). The top five losers included Huaxia Happiness (-29.8%), ST Zhongdi (-16.7%), China Wuyi (-15.8%), Rongsheng Development (-13.9%), and Caixin Development (-11.0%) [5][8]. Data Tracking New Housing Transactions - For the week of January 10-16, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 1.45 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 6.3%, but a year-on-year decrease of 32.9% [13]. - For January up to the week of January 16, new housing transactions totaled 3 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 32.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 40.7% [16]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - For the week of January 10-16, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 2.16 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 4.9%, but a year-on-year decrease of 9.2% [27]. - For January up to the week of January 16, second-hand housing transactions totaled 4.3 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 6.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.6% [30]. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance, the State Administration of Taxation, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development jointly announced new policies to extend personal income tax incentives for residents purchasing new homes [40]. - The central bank and the financial regulatory authority have lowered the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to 30%, aimed at supporting inventory reduction and market revitalization [40]. - Various local policies have been introduced, such as Shanghai's support for converting existing commercial buildings into elderly care facilities and Shenzhen's "Housing and Entrepreneurship Support Plan" providing three years of tiered rent support [40]. Company Announcements - In December, the sales figures for major real estate companies were as follows: Yuexiu Real Estate at 8.996 billion (down 33.4% YoY), China Overseas Land & Investment at 1.99 billion (down 31.0% YoY), and China Resources Land at 41 billion (up 28.1% YoY) [42].

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Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious outlook on the real estate industry, indicating a phase of stabilization with potential for continued policy support. It recommends focusing on financially sound real estate companies [45]. Core Insights - The real estate sector has shown weakness, with a 3.5% decline in the Shenwan real estate index, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.9 percentage points [11]. - New home transaction volume in 43 cities decreased by 33.3% year-on-year and 31.1% month-on-month, with first-tier cities experiencing a 38.9% year-on-year decline [17][21]. - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 cities remained stable, with a depletion cycle of 151.7 weeks [23]. - Land supply in 100 major cities decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, while land transaction volume fell by 41.4% [28]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shenwan real estate sector fell by 3.5% during the week of January 12-16, with a trading volume of 51,869.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.1% decrease compared to the previous week [11]. - Significant individual stock movements included notable gains for *ST Sunshine, Daming City, and Tibet City Investment, while Huaxia Happiness, ST Zhongdi, and China Wuyi saw significant declines [11]. Basic Data - The total market capitalization of the real estate industry is 1,207.435 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 1,173.183 billion yuan. The industry’s TTM price-to-earnings ratio stands at 60.1, compared to 14.2 for the CSI 300 [4]. Industry and Company Dynamics - Recent policies include tax incentives for homeowners selling and repurchasing properties within a year, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [37]. - Companies like China Resources Land and Longfor Group are highlighted as key players to watch in the development sector, while China International Trade and New City Holdings are noted in the commercial sector [45]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes a focus on high-quality real estate companies with stable operations, recommending stocks such as China Resources Land (1109.HK), Longfor Group (0960.HK), and Poly Property (6049.HK) for potential investment [45][46].