有色金属周报 20260208 情绪趋稳，商品价格筑底 glmszqdatemark 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价（元） | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601899.SH | 紫金矿业 | 37.19 | 1.21 | 2.00 | 2.71 | 31 | 19 | 14 | 推荐 | | 603993.SH | 洛阳钼业 | 21.99 | 0.63 | 0.88 | 1.29 | 35 | 25 | 17 | 推荐 | | 000807.SZ | 云铝股份 | 31.70 | 1.27 | 1.94 | 2.31 | 25 | 16 | 14 | 推荐 | | 603799.SH | 华友钴业 | 70.45 | 2.50 | 3.15 | 4.17 | 28 | 22 | 17 | 推荐 | | 00 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report indicates that copper prices may experience short-term fluctuations due to inventory accumulation, with recent price changes of -4.02% for LME copper, -3.45% for SHFE copper, and -1.33% for COMEX copper. The report anticipates a decrease in price volatility and potential high-level fluctuations in the near term [5] - The report highlights that the Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is considering including copper concentrate in national reserves, which could positively impact copper prices in the medium to long term [5] - For aluminum, the report notes that inventory accumulation may lead to short-term price fluctuations, with SHFE aluminum prices dropping by 7.74% to 23,400 CNY/ton and LME aluminum prices down by 2.20% to 3,063 USD/ton [5] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with a potential reversal in supply-demand dynamics for lithium carbonate, suggesting a possible upward price trend [5] - Cobalt raw material tightness persists, with a recommendation to monitor downstream replenishment after the Spring Festival [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides macroeconomic insights, including a better-than-expected ISM manufacturing PMI in the US for January at 52.6, and lower-than-expected ADP employment figures [9] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows a decline, with the Shenwan non-ferrous sector down 8.51%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.24 percentage points [11] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - LME copper prices fell by 4.02%, SHFE copper by 3.45%, and COMEX copper by 1.33%. Inventory levels increased, with LME copper stocks up 4.74% and SHFE copper stocks up 6.83% [24] 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum prices decreased by 2.20%, while SHFE aluminum prices dropped by 7.74%. The report notes a significant increase in SHFE aluminum inventory by 13.09% [34] 2.3 Lead and Zinc - LME lead prices fell by 2.82%, and SHFE lead prices decreased by 3.05%. LME zinc prices dropped by 1.93%, with SHFE zinc prices down by 6.95% [45] 2.4 Tin and Nickel - LME tin prices decreased by 13.93%, and SHFE tin prices fell by 18.32%. LME nickel prices dropped by 3.71%, while SHFE nickel prices decreased by 8.98% [56] 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices saw a significant decline, with lithium carbonate down 16.20% to 134,500 CNY/ton and lithium hydroxide down 16.14% to 132,500 CNY/ton [73] 3.2 Cobalt - The report notes a decrease in MB cobalt prices by 0.19% to 25.88 USD/pound, with domestic cobalt prices down 9.60% to 405,000 CNY/ton [85]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant rise in aluminum prices since November last year, with the Shanghai aluminum futures contract price surpassing 25,000 yuan/ton for the first time on January 13, marking a historical record [1] - The current production capacity of an aluminum processing enterprise in Kunming, Yunnan, is 3.08 million tons per year, with a daily output of approximately 3,500 tons of aluminum ingots [3] - The aluminum processing company is operating at full capacity, with a noticeable increase in order delivery, and products are shipped on the same day they are produced [5] Group 2 - The current spot aluminum prices remain high, and companies are working overtime to meet orders, ensuring product delivery before and after the Spring Festival [7] - An aluminum trader from Anhui noted that the annual price increase for aluminum used to be around 5%, but it has now reached a new high, prompting a more cautious approach to inventory [9] - The trader mentioned that during the initial price increase, many were hesitant to stock up, but strong downstream demand has led to high turnover rates, with daily shipments exceeding 100 tons [11] Group 3 - As of February 5, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 23,455 yuan/ton, a rise of approximately 7.94% from 21,730 yuan/ton in early December 2025, while London aluminum surged from 2,800 USD/ton to 3,059 USD/ton, marking a 9.25% increase [13] - Analysts indicate that the domestic electrolytic aluminum price is showing a trend of oscillating upward, with a strong performance continuing into 2026, despite short-term corrections, as the supply-demand balance remains tight [15]

Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid development of the clean energy industry in Zhaotong, driven by wind, water, and solar energy, aiming for a multi-energy complementary system and integrated development of "source, grid, load, and storage" [1][5][11] Group 1: Hydropower Development - The Baihetan Hydropower Station, the second-largest in the world, is a key component of China's "West-to-East Power Transmission" project, contributing to the world's largest clean energy corridor [4] - The Baihetan Hydropower Station has a total installed capacity of 16 million kilowatts, with each unit capable of generating 150 kilowatt-hours of electricity, sufficient for a typical household's monthly consumption [4][5] - Zhaotong's three major hydropower stations have a combined installed capacity of 13.86 million kilowatts, with the Xiluodu Hydropower Station alone generating over 700 billion kilowatt-hours since its commissioning [4][5] Group 2: Wind and Solar Energy Integration - Zhaotong is expanding its wind and solar energy capacity, with the Qiaojia County Laishishan Wind Farm having an installed capacity of 223,500 kilowatts and generating over 5.499 billion kilowatt-hours to date [6][9] - The Baigoulin Photovoltaic Power Station has a total installed capacity of 200 megawatts, expected to generate over 250 million kilowatt-hours by 2025, benefiting from Zhaotong's high solar irradiation [9][11] Group 3: Industrial Integration and Economic Impact - The integration of clean energy has significantly benefited local industries, with Yunnan Yun Aluminum Haixin Aluminum Co., Ltd. projected to consume approximately 9.5 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity by 2025, achieving a high operating rate of up to 90% [11][14] - The company has produced 3.3545 million tons of green aluminum, generating an industrial output value of 59.712 billion yuan and paying 2.171 billion yuan in taxes [14][16] - The presence of abundant green electricity and a complete upstream supply chain has enabled local manufacturers to meet stringent supply chain requirements from global high-end clients [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in the performance of the non-ferrous metal mining ETF, with a drop of 3.81% on February 6, 2023, closing at 2.120 yuan [1] - Major holdings within the non-ferrous mining ETF experienced notable declines, including Zijin Mining down 5.07%, Luoyang Molybdenum down 5.28%, and Northern Rare Earth down 2.71% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, managed by China Merchants Fund Management Co., with a return of 120.70% since its inception on June 21, 2023, and a monthly return of 9.84% [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. State Department issued a security warning regarding the tense situation in Iran, urging American citizens to leave Iran and prepare for self-evacuation plans [1] - Oriental Securities believes that the long-term bull market for precious metals will not end until the U.S. long-term debt issue is fundamentally resolved, while maintaining a positive medium-term outlook for the industrial metals sector due to potential upward movement in copper prices [1] - The gold-to-copper ratio has reached a historical high of nearly 0.4, indicating that despite short-term volatility, industrial metals like copper may continue to rise due to price ratio effects [1] Group 2 - As of February 6, 2026, the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) rose by 1.20%, with significant gains in stocks such as Hunan Gold (up 10.00%) and Zhongtung High-tech (up 5.90%) [2] - The Nonferrous Metals ETF Penghua (159880) closely tracks the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index, which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the nonferrous metals sector [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index account for 49.87% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [2]

| 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权庫 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 201899 | 影美亚,不 | 0.05% | 15.30% | | 603993 | 洛阳辑业 | 0.41% | 7.92% | | 600111 | 北方稀土 | 1.35% | 5.30% | | 603799 | 华友链业 | 0.41% | 4.69% | | 601600 | 中国铝业 | 3.09% | 4.39% | | 002460 | 赣锋锂业 | 3.86% | 3.23% | | 600547 | 山东黄金 | -1.57% | 3.18% | | 000807 | 云铝股份 | 2.86% | 3.11% | | 600489 | 中令黄金 | 0.13% | 3.08% | | 002466 | 天齐锂业 | 2.51% | 2.60% | （以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之意） 有色金属ETF基金(516650)，场外联接(华夏有色金属ETF联接A：016707；华夏有色金属ETF联接C：016708；华夏有色金属ETF联接D：021534)。 以上内容与数据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The industrial non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a favorable investment environment, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand from the AI industry, which is expected to enhance the long-term performance of upstream resources [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 6, 2026, the Tianhong Non-Ferrous Metals ETF (159157) recorded a turnover of 9.91% with a transaction volume of 99.59 million yuan, and the underlying index, the CSI Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index (H11059), increased by 0.37% [1]. - The Tianhong Non-Ferrous Metals ETF has seen a net subscription of 116 million shares, ranking first among similar products in the Shenzhen market [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The industrial non-ferrous metals sector is concentrated, with the top three industries being copper (31.1%), aluminum (21.9%), and rare earths (16.1%), collectively accounting for approximately 70% of the index [2]. - The rapid development of the AI industry is expected to drive up electricity demand, which will ultimately benefit the industrial non-ferrous metals sector, especially given the anticipated limited supply growth in the coming years [2]. Group 3: Price Trends - The commodity price index in China reached a three-and-a-half-year high in January 2026, with the non-ferrous metals price index rising by 9.9% month-on-month and 26.6% year-on-year [4]. - Among 50 monitored commodities, 33 saw price increases in January, with lithium carbonate, refined tin, and refined nickel leading the gains at 48.4%, 20.2%, and 19.5% respectively [4]. Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - CITIC Securities indicates that after a significant price increase in 2025, the momentum for non-ferrous metal prices and stocks remains strong, supported by supply disruptions and high demand in certain sectors [4]. - The firm expresses optimism regarding the investment value in precious metals, industrial metals, battery metals, and strategic metals due to favorable market conditions [4].

数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业、洛阳 钼业、北方稀土、中国铝业、华友钴业、中金黄金、山东黄金、兴业银锡、赣锋锂业、云铝股份，前十 大权重股合计占比49.87%。 有色ETF鹏华(159880)，场外联接(A：021296；C：021297；I：022886)。 截至2026年2月6日 10:32，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)上涨0.83%，成分股湖南黄金上涨10.00%，中 钨高新上涨5.13%，厦门钨业上涨4.70%，中矿资源上涨3.97%，有研新材上涨3.35%。有色ETF鹏华 (159880)上涨0.59%，最新价报2.2元。 有色ETF鹏华紧密跟踪国证有色金属行业指数，国证有色金属行业指数参照国证行业分类标准，选取归 属于有色金属行业的规模和流动性突出的50只证券作为样本，反映了沪深北交易所有色金属行业上市公 司的整体收益表现，向市场提供细分行业的指数化投资标的。 有色金属强势拉升，湖南黄金盘中涨停，此外，工业金属概念持续上涨，摩根大通表示，铜市场错配加 剧的可能性依然显著，未来几个月或将出现更强劲的看涨行情。 中国银河证券指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in precious metals, particularly silver and gold, is driven by macroeconomic changes, industrial revolutions, and a consensus among investors regarding the value of non-fiat currencies [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 6, precious metals experienced a rebound, with spot silver and gold turning positive after significant declines, with silver previously dropping nearly 10% and gold over 2% [1]. - The color metal mining ETF, known as "cycle amplifier," opened lower but surged over 5%, closing up 0.91% [1]. - Key constituent stocks such as Hunan Gold, Zhongtung High-tech, Xiamen Tungsten, Zhongmin Resources, and Yun Aluminum saw significant gains [1]. Group 2: Macro Logic - The core driving force behind the current price movements is the long-term concern over the credibility of the US dollar, leading to a re-evaluation of metals as "hard currency" [3]. - The weakening marginal credibility of the dollar is prompting funds to view colored metals as a hedge against currency depreciation and inflation, resulting in a systematic price elevation [3]. Group 3: Industrial Logic - The global mining industry faces rigid supply constraints due to insufficient capital expenditure and declining ore grades, severely limiting new production capacity [3]. - Demand is shifting from traditional sectors to new drivers such as renewable energy, artificial intelligence (including computing centers and grid upgrades), and national strategic reserves, creating a potential "super cycle" lasting several years [3]. Group 4: Trading Logic - The focus is on upstream mining companies that can capture price elasticity effectively, as these companies will see the greatest profit elasticity when metal prices rise [3]. - The color metal mining ETF is highly concentrated on listed companies with mineral resources, making it a key vehicle for capturing commodity market trends [3].