别再盯着GPU和HBM高带宽内存了，AI推理浪潮正在让NAND闪存摆脱"强周期商品"的宿命，演变成一种高增长的AI基础设施资产。 据追风交易台消息，1月23日，摩根大通亚太区科技研究团队发布深度研报《半导体：NAND——更长、更强的上升周期》，宣告NAND行业进入 了一个由AI推理驱动的全新超级周期。与过去依靠智能手机和PC出货量驱动的周期不同，本轮周期的核心驱动力是企业级SSD（eSSD）。 摩根大通认为，随着AI工作负载从训练向推理转移，以及HDD（机械硬盘）在近线存储领域的供应瓶颈，NAND市场正迎来前所未有的结构性增 长。而投资者严重低估了NAND在AI推理时代的战略地位。 告别"周期诅咒"：10%的增长成过往，迎接30%的TAM爆发 长久以来，NAND行业一直被视为典型的强周期性大宗商品：技术进步带来成本下降，厂商疯狂扩产，随即引发价格崩盘。 但现在，这个逻辑被打破了。 摩根大通复盘了过去25年的数据发现，无论是过去20年、15年还是5年，NAND行业的TAM（潜在市场规模）年均复合增长率（CAGR）始终徘徊 在7%-12%的区间内。 然而，预测数据显示，在接下来的三年（2025-2027年），这一 ...

| 调价背景：供需失衡与市场重构 行业分析指出，此次NAND闪存价格大幅上调的背后，是全球半导体市场在经历长期下行周期后的结构 性调整。此前，由于供过于求，NAND闪存价格连续多个季度处于低位，三星等头部厂商采取了减产措 施以应对市场压力。随着需求逐渐回暖，尤其是人工智能、高性能计算、智能手机升级等需求的拉动， 存储芯片市场供需格局发生显著变化。 报道透露，三星电子已于去年年底与主要客户完成了供应合同谈判，并在今年第一季度正式执行新的价 格体系。知情人士表示，三星正在与客户就第二季度的NAND价格展开新一轮谈判，市场普遍预期涨势 将持续。 | 连锁反应：从DRAM到NAND的全面涨价 此次NAND价格调整并非孤立事件。近期，DRAM内存价格也被曝出接近70%的涨幅，两大存储产品线 的同步调价，标志着存储市场已进入全面上涨通道。业内专家认为，随着数据中心建设加速、AI终端 设备普及以及消费电子需求回升，存储芯片作为关键元器件，其价格波动将对下游产业链产生广泛影 响。 据韩国媒体报道，三星电子已于2024年第一季度将NAND闪存供应价格上调超过100%，这一涨幅远超 市场预期，凸显了当前全球半导体市场严重的供需失 ...

Core Viewpoint - The storage chip market is experiencing a significant price surge, driven by the demand from AI infrastructure and a supply-demand imbalance, with major players like Samsung and SK Hynix implementing aggressive pricing strategies [2][4][9]. Price Surge - Samsung Electronics has raised the price of NAND flash memory by over 100% in the first quarter of this year, exceeding market expectations and highlighting a severe supply-demand imbalance in the storage chip market [3][4]. - Market research firm TrendForce previously predicted a price increase of 33% to 38% for NAND by the fourth quarter of 2025, but the current situation indicates a much sharper rise [3]. - Samsung is currently negotiating new NAND prices for the second quarter, with expectations of continued price increases [3][4]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The aggressive pricing reflects strong demand for high-performance storage devices driven by AI infrastructure, with enterprise SSD demand surging due to data center expansions [4][5]. - The supply side has not kept pace with demand, leading to a situation where there is a lack of available products despite high prices [4][5]. - Other major players, including SK Hynix and SanDisk, are also planning significant price increases, indicating a trend of widespread price hikes across the industry [4][5]. Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry's long capacity construction cycle means that increasing supply to stabilize prices is not feasible in the short term, leading to inevitable price transmission to consumers [5][8]. - Industry experts predict that the supply tightness in the NAND flash market will persist for at least the next two years, influenced by AI-related investments [8]. - Analysts from Citigroup and other financial institutions believe that the current "storage chip super cycle" driven by AI will be more intense and longer-lasting than the previous cycle during the cloud computing era [9].

Core Viewpoint - The storage industry is experiencing a significant price surge, driven primarily by the demand from AI servers, which consume memory capacity at rates 8 to 10 times higher than traditional servers [5][19]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The price of a single 256G DDR5 server memory module has exceeded 40,000 yuan, with a box of 100 modules costing between 4 million to 5 million yuan, while the average price of new homes in Shanghai is approximately 58,500 yuan per square meter [1]. - From the second half of 2025, DDR5 memory prices have surged over 300%, and DDR4 prices have increased by more than 150% [1]. - Market prices are highly volatile, with some industry insiders claiming this is the most extreme price fluctuation they have witnessed in the storage industry [2]. Group 2: Supply Shortages and Production Shifts - UBS and other investment banks have indicated that the storage industry is entering a severe supply shortage phase not seen in a decade, surpassing the historical highs of 2018 [3]. - AI servers are consuming 53% of global memory production capacity, leading to a drastic reduction in the supply of general-purpose memory like DDR5 and LPDDR5 [8]. - Major manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are reallocating production resources towards higher-margin HBM, further tightening the supply of general DRAM [6]. Group 3: Impact on Various Industries - The price increases are affecting downstream industries, with PC brands like Lenovo and Dell already raising prices, forcing consumers to either accept higher costs or opt for devices with reduced storage capacity [15][16]. - The automotive industry is particularly pressured, as the demand for storage has escalated from several GB to 256GB or even TB levels, with industry leaders warning that memory costs are becoming a significant burden [18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The peak of the supply shortage is expected in the first and second quarters of 2026, with prices projected to maintain a growth rate of over 20% quarter-on-quarter during that period [19]. - The price surge cycle is anticipated to last at least until the end of 2026, with a significant demand growth forecasted at 26% against a supply increase of only 20% [19]. - Historical patterns suggest that the price surge will eventually correct once AI infrastructure stabilizes and new storage capacities are fully realized, but this correction is not expected before 2027 [20][21].

【环球网财经综合报道】近日，日本存储芯片巨头铠侠证实，AI需求正终结廉价固态硬盘时代，公司 今年产能已全部售罄，且供应紧张局面预计将持续至2027年。市场数据显示，部分主流SSD型号的价格 在过去几个月内上涨超过130%。 TrendForce集邦咨询最新研究也认为，AI高速发展带动存储器需求量价齐升，使得整体行业产值逐年创 高，预估2026年达5516亿美元，2027年则将再创高峰达8427亿美元，同比增长53%。 《华尔街日报》则发文称，如果你一年前把所有积蓄都投到几托盘电脑存储芯片上，那么到现在你的投 资至少增值一倍，而且预计价格将继续飞涨。 报道提到，这是全球升值最快的资产之一，这主要受到AI公司的旺盛需求推动。此类芯片以随机存储 器(RAM)为主，但也包括通常被称作闪存或固态存储器的存储芯片，是地球上几乎所有数字设备都需要 用到的。其中逾90%由三家公司生产：SK海力士(SK Hynix)、三星(Samsung)和美光科技(Micron)。 据来自Counterpoint Research的信息，在愿意支付巨额溢价的数据中心建设商推动下，存储器价格在 2025年最后一个季度飙升了50%，预计到202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The memory chip market is experiencing a significant price surge, driven primarily by the demand from AI servers, which require substantially more memory than traditional servers. This has led to a supply shortage that is expected to last until at least 2026, with prices projected to continue rising in the near term [6][19][20]. Group 1: Price Surge and Market Dynamics - The price of DDR5 server memory has skyrocketed, with a single 256G DDR5 module costing over 40,000 yuan, leading to a total price of 4-5 million yuan for 100 modules, which is comparable to the price of a residential property in Shanghai [1]. - From the second half of 2025, DDR5 memory prices have increased by over 300%, while DDR4 prices have risen by more than 150% [2]. - The market is characterized by extreme volatility, with prices changing daily, marking one of the most intense periods in the storage industry [3]. Group 2: Supply Shortage and Industry Response - Investment banks like UBS have indicated that the storage industry is entering a severe supply shortage phase, surpassing the historical highs seen in 2018 [4]. - Major manufacturers such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are reallocating production resources towards higher-margin High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), which is consuming a significant portion of general DRAM capacity [6][7]. - AI servers currently account for 53% of global memory production capacity, leading to a drastic reduction in the supply of general memory types like DDR5 and LPDDR5 [9]. Group 3: Manufacturer Strategies and Challenges - Manufacturers are cautious about expanding production due to previous losses during the industry downturn from 2023 to early 2024, with some companies like Micron exiting consumer markets to focus on data centers [10][11]. - Despite DDR5 becoming mainstream, there is still a high demand for DDR4, but major manufacturers have cut back on DDR4 production, leading to price anomalies where DDR4 prices exceed those of DDR5 [11]. Group 4: Impact on Various Industries - The price increases are affecting downstream industries, with PC brands like Lenovo and Dell beginning to raise prices, forcing consumers to either accept higher costs or opt for devices with reduced storage capacity [15][16]. - The automotive industry is particularly impacted, as the demand for memory has surged from a few GB to 256GB or even TB levels due to increased vehicle intelligence [18]. - Companies with strong supply chain management, such as Apple and Huawei, are less affected, while smaller firms with thin profit margins are facing significant challenges [18]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The peak of the supply shortage is expected in the first and second quarters of 2026, with prices likely to maintain a growth rate of over 20% quarter-on-quarter during that period [19]. - The price surge cycle is anticipated to last at least until the end of 2026, with a projected 26% increase in DRAM demand against a 20% increase in supply [19]. - Historical patterns suggest that the price surge will eventually correct once AI infrastructure stabilizes and new production capacity comes online, but this is not expected before 2027 [20].

半导体设备ETF华夏（562590）及其联接基金（A类：020356；C类：020357），指数中半导体设备 （63%）、半导体材料（24%）占比靠前，充分聚焦半导体上游。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 日本存储巨头铠侠日前警告称，至少在未来两年内，存储市场将持续受到AI相关投资的影响。更糟糕 的是，消费者将不得不为相同的产品支付更高的价格。铠侠存储器事业部执行董事中户俊介（Shunsuke Nakato）本周早些时候证实，公司2026年的NAND闪存产能已全部售罄。 相关ETF：公开信息显示， 科创半导体ETF（588170）及其联接基金（A类：024417；C类：024418） 跟踪上证科创板半导体材料设备主题指数，囊括科创板中半导体设备（60%）和半导体材料（25%）细 分领域的硬科技公司。 半导体设备和材料行业是重要的国产替代领域，具备国产化率较低、国产替代 天花板较高属性，受益于人工智能革命下的半导体需求，扩张、科技重组并购浪潮、光刻机技术进展。 截至2026年1月23日 13点30分，上证科创板半导体材料设备主题指数下跌0.77%。成分股方面涨跌互 现，兴福电子领涨5.56%，新益昌上涨2.88%， ...

Core Viewpoint - Kioxia has launched its new PCIe 5.0 SSD series, which includes the EXCERIA PRO G2 SSD and EXCERIA G3 SSD, enhancing its product matrix from flagship to entry-level offerings [1][12]. Performance Enhancement - The PCIe 5.0 SSD series significantly improves data access speeds, with the EXCERIA PRO G2 SSD achieving sequential read speeds of 14,900 MB/s and write speeds of 13,700 MB/s, nearly doubling the performance compared to the previous PCIe 4.0 products [3][5]. - The EXCERIA PLUS G4 SSD and EXCERIA G3 SSD also offer read speeds close to 10,000 MB/s, marking a substantial performance leap over their predecessors [3]. Efficiency and Sustainability - Kioxia's PCIe 5.0 SSD series achieves a breakthrough in energy efficiency, with the EXCERIA PRO G2 SSD improving its energy efficiency ratio by 110% compared to the previous generation [5][7]. - The EXCERIA G3 SSD is designed for miniPCs, featuring lower power consumption and heat generation, making it suitable for laptop upgrades [5]. Reliability and Management - The series utilizes Kioxia's eighth-generation BiCS FLASH™ 3D NAND technology, which enhances storage density and ensures reliability during high-volume data writes [8]. - Kioxia has enhanced its SSD Utility management software, providing real-time performance monitoring, health status assessments, and centralized management capabilities to reduce operational complexity and risks [11]. Strategic Response to Market Needs - The launch of the PCIe 5.0 SSD series represents a systematic response to the evolving demands of next-generation computing infrastructure, positioning storage as a core component that actively empowers business operations [12].

1、9部门：鼓励创新药、参比制剂等药品进零售药店销售渠道； 2、9部门：推动药品零售企业参加药品集中采购； 3、9部门：鼓励药品零售企业依法开展横向并购与重组； 4、中国太空旅游倒计时！ 穿越者获超20席预定 有望2028年载人首飞； 5、央行：1月23日开展9000亿元MLF操作； 6、消息称阿里旗下芯片公司平头哥拟独立上市； 7、中国星网计划在2026至2030年间部署1.3万颗低轨卫星 内部已打算启动相关招标流程； 硫黄价格暴涨； 8、小米集团宣布最高25亿港元的自动股份回购计划 并将注销购回的股份； 9、阿里云智能集团资深副总裁李飞飞：内存价格预计还会上涨两到三倍； 10、国务院食安办等部门将对预制菜国家标准等公开征求意见； 11、我国首次在太空微重力条件下制造出完整金属构件； 12、总投资252亿元 粤芯半导体年产48万片晶圆生产线启动； 13、宇树科技：2025全年人形机器人实际出货量超5500台； 14、国产GPU厂商燧原科技科创板IPO获受理； 15、中际旭创成公募基金第一大重仓； 16、蓝箭航天科创板IPO审核状态变更为"已问询" 17、阿里千问：Qwen3-TTS全家桶开源上线； 18、今 ...

Monetary Policy and Economic Measures - The central bank governor Pan Gongsheng stated that a moderately loose monetary policy will continue in 2026, with room for further cuts in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates to maintain ample liquidity [3] - The first batch of 936 billion yuan of ultra-long special government bonds has been allocated to support approximately 4,500 projects in various sectors, expected to drive total investment exceeding 460 billion yuan [4] - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation on January 23, net injecting 700 billion yuan into the market, marking the 11th consecutive month of increased operations [4] Consumer and Investment Trends - State-owned banks collectively announced the implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies, allowing some high-quality clients to enjoy effective interest rates in the "2%" range, lower than current housing loan rates [3] - Public funds have focused their fourth-quarter 2025 positions on core sectors such as electronics and power equipment, with Zhongji Xuchuang becoming the largest holding stock [3] Market Performance - The A-share market saw a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.14% to 4122.58 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.5% [6] - The Hong Kong stock market also experienced minor fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.17% to 26629.96 points, and net inflows from southbound funds amounting to 5.166 billion HKD [6] Corporate Developments - Alibaba Group has decided to support its chip company "Pingtouge" for independent listing, with plans for restructuring to a mixed-ownership enterprise [7] - Xiaomi Group has initiated a stock repurchase plan of up to 2.5 billion HKD [9] - Nanjing Bank reported a net profit growth of 8.08% year-on-year for 2025 [9] Regulatory and Policy Updates - The State Administration for Market Regulation has issued a red card for the first time in the public utility sector, prohibiting a merger between two gas companies [10] - Nine departments jointly issued opinions to promote high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail industry, encouraging mergers and acquisitions among retail pharmacies [10] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate for urban labor aged 16-24 was reported at 16.5% in December 2025, while the rate for those aged 25-29 was 6.9% [5] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 28.1% year-on-year increase in sales revenue for the smart device manufacturing industry in 2025 [10]