Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a collective decline on June 12, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.36%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 1.53%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreasing by 2.2% [1] - Various sectors, including short video, cloud computing, and tech stocks, saw significant drops, with Kuaishou-W down 5.87% and Alibaba-W down 3.21% [1] Sector Performance - The consumer sector faced pressure, with notable declines in beer, sports goods, and airline stocks. Budweiser APAC dropped 6.39%, while Meituan-W fell by 1.95% [1] - The automotive industry, including lithium batteries and smart driving concepts, also saw a downturn, with China Graphite down 12.36% and Xpeng Motors-W down 6.66% [2] - Chip and robotics stocks experienced declines, with Horizon Robotics-W down 3.9% and SMIC down 2.04% [2] Gainers - Pharmaceutical stocks showed resilience, with China Biologic Products rising by 19.29% due to anticipated significant business developments [3] - Other biopharmaceutical companies like Junshi Biosciences and Zai Lab also saw substantial gains, with increases of 12.35% and 8.65% respectively [3] Gold and Precious Metals - Gold and precious metals stocks rose, driven by global gold purchasing trends and rising gold prices. Zijin Mining increased by 4.93% [4] - The global demand for gold as a reserve asset has surged, with central banks increasing their gold holdings amid geopolitical tensions [4] Notable Stocks - Cloudfin Financial, associated with Ant Group, surged by 54.24% following reports of plans to apply for stablecoin licenses in Singapore and Hong Kong [4] - Jiuyuan Gene saw a remarkable increase of 43.73%, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains [5]

Core Viewpoint - The significant price reductions in alcoholic beverages during the 618 shopping festival are attributed to increased competition among e-commerce platforms and substantial subsidy investments in the liquor category [3][4]. Group 1: Price Reductions - Major liquor brands, including Moutai and Jian Nan Chun, have seen their prices drop significantly, with Moutai available for around 1900 yuan and Jian Nan Chun for 369 yuan [1][3]. - Beer prices have also decreased, with brands like Snow Beer and Budweiser priced under 4 yuan [2]. Group 2: E-commerce Competition - The competition among leading e-commerce platforms has intensified, leading to increased subsidies for liquor products, with some brands offering official subsidies of up to 10% [3][4]. - The 618 shopping festival has expanded its subsidy coverage to the liquor sector, further driving down online prices [3]. Group 3: Consumption Trends - The summer season typically sees a decline in liquor consumption, contributing to lower market prices [3]. - Beer consumption has shifted from on-premise channels like restaurants to off-premise channels, prompting beer companies to focus on flash sales and delivery services [5][6]. - Non-on-premise beer is generally cheaper, and with additional subsidies during the 618 festival, prices are expected to decrease further [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (00291) with a target price of HKD 34 [1] Core Insights - China Resources Beer achieved positive sales growth in April and May, consistent with the sales trend from January to May 2025, benefiting from favorable raw material factors that helped increase gross margin by over 1 percentage point [1] - The company is implementing "Three Precision" initiatives to further reduce operating costs [1] - The management anticipates pressure on the white liquor business revenue this year due to weak demand and high base effects, aiming to avoid losses and impairments [1] Sales Performance by Product - Heineken continues to perform strongly with sales growth exceeding 20% year-on-year - Super X's year-to-date sales have increased by approximately 10% year-on-year - Sales of Old Snow and Amstel have seen over 50% year-on-year growth - Snow Beer Pure Draft experienced a slight single-digit decline in sales year-on-year [1] Sales Performance by Region - The company highlighted strong sales momentum in Guangdong, particularly around the Shenzhen area - It is expected that East China and South China will become key drivers of sales growth in 2025 [1] Sales Performance by Channel - The management noted that demand in the ready-to-drink channel remains weak, although there was a slight improvement in some dining markets in East and South China in May - The company has gained some market share in the nightlife channel - The proportion of ready-to-drink channel sales remains stable, consistent with the end of 2024 levels, at approximately 38-39% [1] Capital Expenditure Plans - Due to strong Heineken sales, the company plans to expand Heineken production capacity in Fujian - In 2025, further investments are planned in maintenance, production line transformation, and the white liquor business - Future capital expenditures are expected to gradually decrease [2] Financial Assumptions - The report uses a discounted cash flow method with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.3%, derived from a 3% risk-free rate and a 9.1% risk premium, and a terminal growth rate of 3% [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current trends and dynamics in the liquor industry, focusing on the rise of craft beer, the competition among major liquor brands in Hong Kong, and the strategies employed by companies during the off-season to engage consumers [1]. Industry Environment - The craft beer market is experiencing significant growth, driven by instant retail, with some retailers reporting sales increases of 20%-35%. However, traditional liquor distributors remain cautious due to short shelf life and supply chain challenges [2]. - The light bottle liquor market is projected to reach 150 billion by 2024, with potential to exceed 200 billion in the next decade. The "Bashi" brand from Sichuan Chunquan Group is gaining traction in Jiangsu, targeting the 30-60 yuan price range [3]. - Major Chinese liquor brands are rapidly expanding into the Hong Kong market, leveraging tax reductions and differentiated strategies to attract mid-to-high-end consumers, despite facing competition from foreign spirits [5]. - The liquor industry is shifting focus from channel-driven strategies to consumer-driven approaches, with companies like Moutai and Xijiu enhancing brand engagement through immersive experiences [6]. Future Predictions - The liquor industry is expected to undergo three major changes in the next decade: a shift towards smoother flavors to appeal to younger consumers, increased concentration among leading brands, and accelerated integration across different liquor categories [7]. Brand Dynamics - Yanjing Beer has successfully transitioned from single-point marketing to a comprehensive ecosystem approach, significantly increasing its revenue and profitability through high-end product offerings [11][12]. - Kuaizi Jiu is establishing a cultural benchmark with the opening of the largest brewing heritage exhibition hall in China, enhancing its brand's historical significance and supporting its high-end strategy [13]. - The "Shancheng Beer" trademark dispute highlights the challenges foreign brands face in local markets, with Carlsberg's strategy facing scrutiny due to declining brand value [14]. - Wuliangye's "He Mei" wedding event exemplifies the integration of traditional culture and modern marketing, promoting brand engagement through experiential marketing [15]. - China Resources Beer’s dual empowerment strategy for beer and liquor is underperforming, with its liquor segment failing to meet growth targets [17]. - Yanjing Beer is struggling with high-end positioning amidst a competitive landscape, facing challenges in revenue growth and market strategy [18]. - Guojiao 1573 is innovating through cultural narratives, collaborating with intangible cultural heritage artisans to enhance brand identity and consumer connection [19]. - Shacheng Laojiao has achieved remarkable growth, with projected revenue of 1.4 billion in 2024, driven by strategic market focus and product offerings [20]. - Water Well Square is promoting cultural values through its collaboration with artist Zhu Bingren, enhancing brand visibility during the Dragon Boat Festival [21]. - Liu Ling Zui Jiu is leveraging cultural heritage to establish a strong market presence, focusing on product diversity and consumer experience [23]. - Hongxing Erguotou has been recognized as a leading consumer brand in Beijing, emphasizing quality and cultural heritage in its production processes [24].

Group 1: Current Status of the Beer Industry - The retail sales of tobacco and alcohol increased by 6.1% year-on-year from January to October 2024, indicating stable consumer demand [2][14] - China's beer production has shown steady growth since 2021, with low industry inventory levels in 2023 and strong confidence among distributors [2][17] - The market is highly concentrated, with five major brands (China Resources, Tsingtao, Yanjing, Chongqing, and Zhujiang) holding 70% of the market share, and Yanjing Beer reported a remarkable net profit growth of 94.3% in 2023 [2][17] Group 2: Trends in Beer Consumption Demand - Beer has gained significant popularity on social media, with a 260% year-on-year increase in social media mentions, leading the beverage industry [3][24] - The flavor profile of beer is diversifying, with white beer and fruit-flavored beers gaining traction, and the integration of tea flavors becoming a new trend [3][27] - The market for non-alcoholic and low-alcohol beers is rapidly growing, with a market value of 94.07 billion yuan in 2023, expected to increase its market share by 4% by 2027 [3][19] Group 3: Future Development Trends in the Beer Industry - Product innovation is on the rise, with a focus on integrating Chinese tea culture into beer, and packaging trends leaning towards functionality and sustainability [4][17] - Health-conscious products are emerging, such as zero-sugar and zero-alcohol beers, with brands like Suntory introducing vitamin D-infused non-alcoholic options [4][19] - Marketing strategies are evolving, with platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu being key for brand promotion, and live-streaming sales gaining traction [4][30]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that China Resources Beer (00291) achieved positive sales growth in April and May, consistent with the sales trend from January to May 2025, benefiting from favorable raw material factors that helped increase gross margin by over 1 percentage point. The company is focused on cost reduction through its "Three Precision" initiatives and maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 34. Management anticipates pressure on liquor business revenue this year due to weak demand and high base effects, aiming to avoid losses and impairments [1][2]. Summary by Category Sales Performance - Heineken continues to show strong performance with sales growth exceeding 20% year-on-year - Super X's year-to-date sales have increased by approximately 10% - Sales of Old Snow and Amstel have surged by over 50% - Snowflake Pure Life sales have experienced a slight decline in single digits [2] Regional Insights - The company highlights strong sales momentum in Guangdong, particularly around Shenzhen - It is expected that East China and South China will be key drivers of sales growth in 2025 [2] Channel Performance - Management notes that demand in the ready-to-drink channel remains weak, although there was a slight improvement in some dining markets in East and South China in May - The company has gained some market share in the nightlife channel - The proportion of ready-to-drink channel sales remains stable, consistent with the end of 2024 levels, at approximately 38-39% [2] Capital Expenditure - Due to strong Heineken sales, the company plans to expand Heineken production capacity in Fujian - Continued investments are planned for maintenance, production line transformation, and liquor business in 2025 - Future capital expenditures are expected to gradually decrease, with a baseline scenario using discounted cash flow method assuming a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.3% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [2]

Group 1: China Resources Beer (00291) - The company achieved positive sales growth in April and May, aligning with the sales trend from January to May 2025 [1] - The management expects pressure on the liquor business revenue due to weak demand and high base, aiming to avoid losses and impairments [1] - The company benefits from favorable raw material factors, leading to a gross margin increase of over 1 percentage point, while operational costs are reduced through "Three Precision" initiatives [1] - Heineken sales grew over 20% year-on-year, while Super X saw approximately 10% growth; Snow Beer Pure Life experienced a slight decline [1] - Sales momentum is strong in Guangdong, particularly around Shenzhen, with expectations for East and South China to drive growth in 2025 [1] - The ready-to-drink channel remains weak, but there was slight improvement in some dining markets in May [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Financial Projections - The company plans to expand Heineken production capacity in Fujian and continue investments in maintenance, production line transformation, and liquor business in 2025 [2] - Future capital expenditures are expected to gradually decrease [2] - Key assumptions for financial projections include a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.3% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [2] Group 3: Kingsoft Software (03888) - The upcoming game "Mecha BREAK" is expected to be a key driver for Kingsoft's stock price [3] - The game is highly anticipated, ranking 5th on Steam's wishlist, with 3.5 million pre-registrations and a peak of over 300,000 concurrent players during closed testing [4] - Potential outcomes for the game's performance include revenue predictions of 500 million RMB if it ranks 10-20 on Steam, and over 300 million RMB if it enters the top ten [4] Group 4: FiberHome Technologies (601869) - Goldman Sachs reviewed FiberHome's earnings forecast following China Mobile's 2025-26 tender results, which were below expectations [6] - FiberHome's winning share in the tender decreased to 13.6%, down from 19-20% in previous tenders, and the average procurement price dropped by 26% [7] - The tender results indicate a cautious outlook for the telecom industry's fiber optic cable demand [7] Group 5: Q Technology (01478) - Q Technology reported a 1.9% month-on-month increase in smartphone camera module shipments for May 2025, but a year-on-year decline of 17.5% [8] - The shipment of camera modules with 32 million pixels and above saw a year-on-year decline of 19.0% [8] - Fingerprint recognition module shipments surged by 45.0% year-on-year, benefiting from market share gains and increased production capacity [8]

Core Insights - The establishment of Nanjing Shengxi Investment Co., Ltd. marks a collaboration between two major state-owned enterprises, China Merchants Group and China Resources Group, to develop the G28 plot in Nanjing, which has recently gained attention for its high land price and strategic location [1][2][4]. Group 1: Company Formation and Structure - Nanjing Shengxi Investment Co., Ltd. was registered on June 5, with a registered capital of 1.65 billion yuan, where China Merchants holds a 51% stake and China Resources holds 49% through its subsidiary [2]. - The company is located at 188 Xinglong Avenue, Jianye District, Nanjing, close to the Green Expo Park and major transportation links [4]. Group 2: Land Acquisition and Development Plans - The G28 plot was acquired by China Merchants for a total price of 3.204 billion yuan, with a floor price of 45,053 yuan per square meter, making it the second-highest residential land price in Nanjing's history [5][7]. - The plot is strategically located near the Green Expo Park and has access to multiple metro lines, enhancing its attractiveness for residential development [7]. Group 3: Market Context and Future Prospects - The G28 plot is expected to feature a mix of high-end residential products, potentially exceeding the pricing of nearby luxury projects like Jinling Yuehua, which has set high benchmarks in the market [9][11]. - The project aims to incorporate modern residential concepts, including "high-low configuration" and possibly "fourth-generation housing" elements, indicating a focus on premium living experiences [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - The bio-basedlink platform is officially launched to provide precise and efficient supplier matching services for the bio-based and biomanufacturing industry, featuring four main categories: industry news, research reports, new product database, and supply-demand database [1]. Group 1: Platform Features - The new product database includes eight subfields such as materials, energy and chemicals, synthetic biology, and biomanufacturing [1]. - The supply-demand database covers upstream and downstream demand, supply, technology achievements, and talent matching [1]. - Companies can join the new product database to gain a dedicated company page showcasing their logo, positioning, product keywords, and advantages, with free updates available for information changes [4]. Group 2: Accessing the Platform - Users can find the official website by following the WeChat public account "Synthetic Biology and Green Biomanufacturing" or by searching for www.bio-basedlink.net [2]. - Companies that have participated in relevant activities can join the new product database for free, and DT members receive priority recommendations for one year of platform cooperation [8]. Group 3: Supply-Demand Database - The supply-demand database allows users to publish and match their industry needs, including products, technologies, and talents [10]. - The platform will collect and publicly share information on industry "new technological achievements" and "end-user brand demands" [10]. Group 4: Research and Reports - The DT Industry Research Institute will publish monthly, quarterly, and annual reports on the bio-based and biomanufacturing industry, providing insights based on real-time information and industry surveys [14]. - The platform aims to help users maintain a competitive edge through systematic and in-depth observations and research [15]. Group 5: Marketing and Exposure - New products and related articles will be promoted across various channels, including the bio-basedlink platform website and multiple WeChat public accounts [16]. - The platform aims to facilitate exposure and networking opportunities for companies in the bio-based materials sector [17].

行业研究丨深度报告丨啤酒 [Table_Title] "每食每刻"系列之（十三）：即时零售，啤酒 消费的"硬折扣" %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 依托于互联网发展，具有"快"、"近"、"多"特征的即时零售业务近年来得到高速发展，酒小 二、歪马送酒等酒水垂直类即时零售平台渐渐走入消费者生活，2025 年酒小二/歪马送酒门店 预计已突破 2000/1400 家。本文主要探讨酒水即时零售平台运营模式、单店模型及其为啤酒行 业带来的变化。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 董思远 徐爽 冯萱 SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490520030001 SAC：S0490524060001 SFC：BQK487 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 22 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title "每食每刻"系列之（十三）：即时零售，啤酒 2] 消费的"硬折扣" [Table_Summary2] 中国酒水消费线上化率不断提升 中国饮酒文化源远流长， ...