证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 10 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2026年02月10日 华源晨会精粹 20260210 汽车 矿山无人驾驶专题 1:矿山无人驾驶商业模式&市场规模——汽车行业周报：为 什么看好无人矿卡赛道：1）自动驾驶大规模商业化落地进展最快的下游之一且市场 天花板较高；2）技术较为成熟，经济性突出；3）政策鼓励危险场景无人化；4）出 海逻辑清晰；5）格局初定且有较高行业壁垒；以上因素共同决定了行业龙头厂商或 具备长期成长性&投资价值。矿山无人驾驶致力于解决诸多行业痛点问题："矿区通 常地处偏远+作业环境恶劣+健康风险大+劳动强度大"引致招工难、用工贵；"装备 自动化程度低+生产系统碎片化"引致生产效率低。而这其中运输环节用工占比接近 全矿劳动员工的 50%，属于核心降本增效环节。产品模式下无人矿卡赛道市场规模： 产品模式下，下游一次性买断无人矿卡全生命周期服务（车+智驾套件/单独套件）； 该模式对于无人矿卡服务提供商的优点是"轻资产+回款快"；我们测算这种商业模 式下，中长期的国内市场规模区间预计超 200 亿元。 风险提示：1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [4] Core Views - The agricultural sector is expected to experience a cyclical recovery, particularly in the beef and dairy markets, driven by domestic and international demand [3] - The pig farming sector is anticipated to stabilize due to capacity control measures, benefiting leading companies with improved cash flow and cost advantages [3] - Poultry supply is expected to remain stable, with potential for increased cash flow returns for leading enterprises as demand recovers [3] - The feed industry is likely to see enhanced competitive advantages for leading companies due to deeper industrialization and specialization [3] - The pet industry is identified as a growth sector benefiting from demographic trends [3] Summary by Sections Livestock - Beef prices are expected to continue rising, with the average price for fattened bulls at 25.20 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week and up 8.15% year-on-year [2] - Dairy cow depopulation is likely to accelerate, with raw milk prices expected to reach a turning point in 2026 [2] - The pig price on February 6, 2026, was 12.05 CNY/kg, down 1.31% week-on-week and down 20.67% year-on-year [13] Poultry - Chicken supply has slightly increased, with a focus on seasonal consumption recovery [13] - Egg prices in major production areas were 3.44 CNY/jin, up 6.83% week-on-week and up 19.44% year-on-year [13] Feed - Soybean meal prices are at historical lows, with potential catalysts from weather or trade factors [2] - Corn prices are expected to maintain a stable upward trend, with a current price of 2331 CNY/ton, down 0.09% week-on-week but up 8.52% year-on-year [2] Key Companies and Investment Recommendations - Recommended livestock companies include YouRan MuYe and Modern MuYe [3] - Recommended pig farming companies include HuaTong Co., DeKang Agriculture, and MuYuan Co. [3] - Recommended poultry companies include LiHua Co. and YiSheng Co. [3] - Recommended feed company is HaiDa Group [3] - Recommended pet company is GuaiBao Pet [3]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for Haida Group (002311.SZ) and "Buy-B" for Shengnong Development (002299.SZ) and Wen's Shares (300498.SZ) [2] Core Insights - The pig prices are expected to face downward pressure after the peak season, with self-breeding pig farming profits currently in the negative [4] - The feed industry is undergoing accelerated consolidation, with market share shifting towards leading companies with R&D advantages and scale [4] - The report highlights opportunities for Haida Group due to its efficient internal management and strong service advantages in the industry chain [4] - The report suggests that the pig farming industry may experience a significant capacity reduction in 2026, which could improve the fundamentals and valuations of the sector [5] - The pet food sector is expected to continue growing, with a shift in competition from marketing to R&D and supply chain management [6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The agricultural sector saw a decline of 1.92% in the week of February 2-8, 2026, with the food and feed additives, meat chicken farming, and pig farming sectors performing relatively well [3][13] 2. Pig Farming - As of February 6, 2026, the average prices for external three-way cross pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan were 11.65, 11.96, and 12.38 CNY/kg, respectively, showing a week-on-week decline of 4.12%, 1.64%, and 1.98% [4][22] - The average pork price was 18.34 CNY/kg, down 1.45% from the previous week [4][22] - Self-breeding pig farming profits were reported at -38.09 CNY/head, a decrease of 63.19 CNY/head from the previous week [4][22] 3. Poultry Farming - The price of white feather chickens was reported at 7.53 CNY/kg, down 2.71% week-on-week, with a loss of 0.26 CNY per chicken [37] 4. Feed Processing - The average price of feed for fattening pigs remained stable at 3.37 CNY/kg as of January 29, 2026 [41] 5. Aquaculture - As of February 6, 2026, the price of sea cucumbers was 120 CNY/kg, and the price of shrimp was 320 CNY/kg, both remaining stable [47] 6. Crop and Oilseed Processing - As of February 6, 2026, corn was priced at 2368.43 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.33% week-on-week, while soybean prices remained stable at 4072.11 CNY/ton [56][57]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Agricultural and Animal Husbandry ETF managed by Jianxin Fund, which opened at 0.932 yuan with a slight increase of 0.43% [1] - The ETF's major holdings include companies such as Cangge Mining, which rose by 0.37%, and others like Salt Lake Co. and Muyuan Foods, which saw declines of 0.12% and 0.41% respectively [1] - Since its establishment on July 21, 2022, the ETF has reported a return of -7.10%, while its performance over the past month has improved by 2.50% [1] Group 2 - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Theme Index, indicating its focus on this specific sector [1] - The fund manager is Jianxin Fund Management Co., Ltd., with the fund manager being Gong Jiajia [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The central government emphasizes comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity in the recently released No. 1 Central Document, indicating a shift in industry policy towards protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation [6][16] - The pig farming sector is experiencing a gradual recovery despite a 0.1% decline in the SW pig farming sector, with current market pressures expected to ease as production capacity is regulated [6][16] - The poultry sector faces ongoing challenges with high production capacity and weak consumption, but leading companies are likely to gain market share [18] - The feed sector is recommended to focus on Hai Da Group, which aims to increase its dividend payout ratio and expand its market presence [10][20] - The pet industry is expected to see significant growth, with a projected market size exceeding 400 billion yuan by 2028, driven by changing consumer perceptions [51] Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming - The pig price continues to decline, with a current price of 11.84 yuan/kg, and the industry is facing dual pressures of supply and demand [6][16] - The central government's policy shift aims to regulate the breeding stock and enhance market adaptability [6][16] - Companies with cost advantages and innovative models are expected to outperform [17] 2. Poultry - The poultry sector is experiencing price fluctuations, with broiler prices at 3.6 yuan/kg, down 5.2% week-on-week [18] - The impact of avian influenza in France may reduce the supply of imported breeding chickens, potentially increasing prices [18] - Integrated companies and those with contract farming models are likely to expand their market share [18] 3. Feed - Hai Da Group is recommended due to its clear long-term growth path and plans to increase dividend payouts [10][20] - The company aims for a global sales target of 100 million tons by 2050, with significant overseas market expansion [20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry is projected to grow rapidly, with expectations of reaching a market size of over 400 billion yuan by 2028 [51] - Companies with strong domestic and international sales are recommended for long-term investment opportunities [21] 5. Agricultural Products - Domestic soybean meal prices have decreased by 1.5%, while corn prices have shown slight fluctuations [22] - The market is expected to remain oversupplied in the near term, with a focus on weather and import impacts [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the integration of technology and industry in agriculture in Guangdong, emphasizing the implementation of the "Four Agricultural" strategies to enhance agricultural productivity and quality through technological innovation [5][12][18]. Group 1: Technological Advancements in Agriculture - The "Yueqiang Seed Core" initiative aims to strengthen seed development, with Guangdong collecting and preserving 368,000 agricultural germplasm resources, ranking among the top in China [32][54]. - The introduction of modern breeding technologies, such as chip-based breeding for fish species, has significantly improved the efficiency and quality of aquaculture in Guangdong [42][44]. - The use of unmanned agricultural machinery has been expanded, integrating AI and IoT technologies to enhance operational efficiency in various crops, including rice and lychee [67][70]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Growth - The production value of Qinyuan silk rice has surpassed 10 billion yuan, showcasing the economic benefits of technological integration in agriculture [2]. - The implementation of agricultural technology services has led to increased income for farmers, with some reporting an average increase of 2,000 yuan per mu [97][109]. - The development of new agricultural products, such as the "乡下黑猪" (Country Black Pig), has resulted in significant market growth, with annual production capacity exceeding 120,000 heads [50][52]. Group 3: Policy and Strategic Support - The Guangdong provincial government has outlined strategies to enhance agricultural technology and equipment support as part of its broader agricultural development plan [65][66]. - The establishment of a comprehensive agricultural technology promotion system aims to break down silos between different agricultural sectors, fostering collaboration and innovation [100][123]. - The "Yueqiang Agricultural Technology" initiative is attracting young professionals to the agricultural sector, injecting new energy into the industry [127][130].

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in near-month contracts is attributed to weakening spot prices, with a notable trend of backwardation in the market [3][19]. Group 1: Market Trends - The spot price of live pigs initially rose to 13.30 yuan/kg in January due to holiday stocking and adverse weather, but has since come under pressure as supply increases ahead of the Spring Festival [3][19]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, pig farming enterprises are increasing their market supply to mitigate holiday risks, leading to a rise in supply pressure [3][19]. - The average weight of pigs being sold is currently high, and the reduction in weight before the holiday is less than expected, exceeding the capacity to meet holiday demand [3][19]. Group 2: Demand and Inventory - The demand for frozen products remains relatively stable, with a decline in utilization rates across various regions; northern markets have seen a decrease of around 10%, while southern markets show a varied decline between 2-11% [3][19]. - Frozen product inventories are continuously decreasing, although overall levels are higher than at the end of the previous year [3][19]. Group 3: Supply Outlook - The supply of newborn piglets is expected to peak around May 2026, with a continuous improvement in supply anticipated in Q3 2026, indicating a strong backwardation pricing trend for the year [4][20]. - The effects of capacity reduction are expected to gradually manifest in the second half of 2026, with expectations for spot prices to recover around May [4][20]. Group 4: Operational Strategies - The high basis of near-month contract 2603 continues, with the futures market showing a persistent downward trend, indicating a significant divergence between futures and spot prices [5][21]. - There is a need to monitor the risk of a significant decline in spot prices after the holiday, while short-term backwardation strategies are supported by fundamentals [5][21]. - Attention should be given to the reduction of breeding sows and potential low-position buying opportunities in the far-month contracts 2609 and 2611 as the market stabilizes [5][21].

Core Viewpoint - Company Wens Foodstuff Group is entering the pet food market by acquiring a stake in Qingdao Shuang'an Biotechnology Co., aiming to leverage synergies and enhance sustainable development capabilities amid declining profits in its main business [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Details - Wens Investment, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Wens Foodstuff Group, plans to invest up to 147 million yuan in Qingdao Shuang'an, acquiring 14.8684 million yuan of registered capital for 44.3854 million yuan and subscribing to an additional 34.4579 million yuan of registered capital for 103 million yuan [1]. - Post-transaction, Wens Investment will hold 48.18% of Qingdao Shuang'an, becoming its largest shareholder [1]. Group 2: Market Context - The pet food market in China is experiencing significant growth, with the urban pet consumption market surpassing 312.6 billion yuan in 2025, a 4.1% increase year-on-year, and the pet food market reaching 167.9 billion yuan, growing by 5.9% [2]. - The competitive landscape includes major foreign players like Mars and Nestlé Purina, as well as domestic brands such as Zhongchong Co., Guai Bao Pet, and Peidi Co., all vying for market share [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends - Major meat companies are recognizing opportunities in the pet food sector, with several, including Shengnong Development and Deli Foods, establishing joint ventures and production projects for pet food [3]. - Experts highlight that Wens Foodstuff Group's advantage lies in its upstream resources and established supply chain, allowing for cost control and quality assurance in pet food production [3].

Core Viewpoint - The investment by Wens Foodstuff Group in Qingdao Shuang'an Bio-Tech Co., Ltd. aims to strengthen its core business while exploring strategic opportunities in the pet food sector, enhancing sustainable development and risk resilience [1][3]. Investment Details - Wens Investment plans to invest no more than 147 million yuan in Qingdao Shuang'an, acquiring approximately 22.19% of its equity and subscribing to an additional capital increase of 103 million yuan [4]. - After the transaction, Wens Investment will hold 48.18% of Qingdao Shuang'an's equity, making it the largest shareholder [4][5]. Company Background - Qingdao Shuang'an, established in 2010, operates in the pet food industry, including the development and production of pet food and health products, with brands like Black Nose and Cat Doctor [5]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 407 million yuan and a net profit of 12.16 million yuan by 2025, with total assets of 506 million yuan and net assets of 144 million yuan [6]. Market Context - The pet consumption market in China is expected to grow significantly, reaching 405 billion yuan by 2028, with pet food accounting for 53.7% of the market share [7]. - The competitive landscape includes major players like Guai Bao Pet and Zhong Chong Co., with significant revenue figures, highlighting the challenges faced by Qingdao Shuang'an [9]. Strategic Implications - The investment is seen as a strategic move for Wens Foodstuff Group to diversify and stabilize its business amid declining profits, with a projected net profit drop of 40.73%-46.12% in 2025 [9][10]. - By acquiring Qingdao Shuang'an, Wens aims to leverage synergies in cost reduction, product upgrades, and channel sharing, potentially enhancing future profit growth [10].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][71]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the supply of live pigs is increasing, leading to a rebound in prices followed by a decline. As of February 8, the price of live pigs was 11.84 CNY/kg, down 0.47 CNY/kg week-on-week. The profits for self-bred and purchased piglets were -38.09 CNY and 91.42 CNY per head, respectively, showing significant week-on-week declines [2][10][30]. - The beef market is experiencing price increases due to pre-Spring Festival stocking, with the price of fattened bulls at 25.74 CNY/kg and calves at 33.81 CNY/kg, reflecting a positive trend for beef prices in the long term [3][33]. - The poultry sector is facing downward pressure on prices due to increased output of broilers and a decrease in demand for poultry products, with the price of white feather broilers at 7.53 CNY/kg, down 0.21 CNY/kg week-on-week [3][40]. Summary by Sections Swine Industry - The price of live pigs has shown volatility, with a rebound followed by a decline due to increased supply and faster slaughtering rates. The average weight of pigs at slaughter has decreased to 127.40 kg, down 0.46 kg week-on-week [2][20][30]. - The industry is entering a seasonal consumption peak, with an increase in slaughtering volume and a decrease in frozen product inventory, which is currently at 17.91%, down 0.40 percentage points week-on-week [2][13][30]. Beef Industry - The beef market is seeing an upward trend in prices, driven by increased demand from slaughterhouses as they prepare for the Spring Festival. The long-term outlook for beef prices is positive due to tightening supply from reduced breeding stock [3][33][34]. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector is experiencing a decline in prices due to increased output and reduced demand for poultry products. The price of eggs has also decreased to 7.67 CNY/kg, down 0.78 CNY/kg week-on-week, with expectations for future price recovery driven by supply constraints [3][40][42]. Seed Industry - The 2026 Central Document No. 1 emphasizes the promotion of biological breeding industrialization, which is expected to enhance agricultural productivity and quality. This initiative is likely to benefit leading seed companies [3][55][56].