晨会纪要（2025/12/18） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.18） 金融工程研究 主要指数全部震荡调整，两融余额小幅下降——融资融券周报 行业研究 2025 年工业机器人产量有望突破 70 万台——机械设备行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/12/18） 金融工程研究 主要指数全部震荡调整，两融余额小幅下降——融资融券周报 王雪莹（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525020001） 1、市场概况 上周（12 月 10 日-12 月 16 日）A 股市场主要指数全部震荡调整，其中创业板指跌幅最大，下跌了 4.29%； 上证 50 跌幅最小，下跌了 1.44%。此外，上证综指下跌 2.17%，深证成指下跌 2.73%，科创 50 下跌 3.99%， 沪深 300 下跌 2.19%，中证 500 下跌 1.69%。 12 月 16 日，沪深两市两融余额为 24, ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" for the next 12 months, indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index [35] Core Views - The demand for engineering machinery is expected to continue growing due to favorable domestic construction activity and the implementation of significant investment projects as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][27] - In November, the production of industrial robots reached approximately 70,200 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.60%, with expectations for total production to exceed 700,000 units in 2025 [2][27] - The report maintains "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Zoomlion (000157), Hengli Hydraulic (601100), Jiechang Drive (603583), and Haomai Technology (002595) [2][27] Industry News - In November, sales of various types of forklifts reached 119,749 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [10] - The domestic sales of forklifts for the first 11 months of 2025 totaled 843,005 units, reflecting a growth of 14.3% [10] - Beijing Zhuoyue Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. successfully completed a strategic financing round of 200 million yuan [11] - Hitachi Construction Machinery will change its name to LANDCROS, pending shareholder approval [11] Industry Data - As of December 12, 2025, the comprehensive steel price index (CSPI) was recorded at 91.76 [12] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices were reported at $56.82 and $60.56 per barrel, respectively, as of December 16, 2025 [13] Company Announcements - Suzhou Sileck Precision Equipment Co., Ltd. announced a partnership with investment institutions to enhance project reserves and overall competitiveness [17] - Wuxi Chemical Equipment Co., Ltd. plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in South Korea with an investment of up to $100,000 [18] Market Review - From December 10 to December 16, 2025, the CSI 300 index fell by 2.19%, while the machinery equipment sector declined by 2.95%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.76 percentage points [19] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE, TTM) for the machinery equipment sector was 43.94 times, with a valuation premium of 218.89% relative to the CSI 300 [20]

Group 1 - The global generative AI investment is expected to grow significantly, with total investment projected to reach $315.9 billion in 2024 and $1,261.9 billion by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.9% [1] - The rapid increase in global generative AI platform network traffic by 76% year-on-year and a 319% surge in mobile application downloads indicate a growing user dependency on AI technologies [1] Group 2 - North American internet giants are significantly increasing capital expenditures, with a total of $258.56 billion in 2024, marking a 58.05% year-on-year increase, to accelerate AI infrastructure development [2] - The demand for server PCBs is rising due to the construction of computing power infrastructure, leading manufacturers to expand production and shift towards high-end capacity [2] - Liquid cooling technology is becoming the preferred choice for cooling systems in intelligent computing centers due to its efficiency, low energy consumption, and compact size, with the domestic and international liquid cooling market experiencing rapid expansion [2] Group 3 - The power consumption of North American data centers is increasing, with natural gas becoming the largest source of new electricity supply, resulting in a rapid growth of gas turbine orders [3] - Diesel generator sets are essential for the stable operation of data centers, benefiting from the AI infrastructure wave and experiencing sales growth [3]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the growth opportunities in AI infrastructure-related equipment, projecting a significant increase in global investment in generative AI, expected to rise from $315.9 billion in 2024 to $1,261.9 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.9% [5][6] - North American internet giants are significantly increasing capital expenditures, with a total of $258.56 billion in 2024, marking a 58.05% year-on-year increase, focusing on AI infrastructure [6] - The demand for PCB (Printed Circuit Board) is expected to rise due to the growth in computing power, with manufacturers expanding production capacity and transitioning to high-end production [6] Group 2 - Domestic demand remains under pressure, with November retail sales growth at 1.3%, down from 2.9% in the previous month, and fixed asset investment showing a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% [8][10] - The report highlights the need for policy measures to stabilize investment and support the real estate market, with a focus on increasing residents' income and expanding quality consumption supply [10][12] - The manufacturing investment decline has narrowed to 4.5% year-on-year, with certain sectors like transportation equipment and automobiles showing strong growth [14] Group 3 - Short-term loans and bond financing for enterprises are performing well, with a notable increase in short-term loans by 1,000 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting strong liquidity support for small and medium-sized enterprises [18][21] - The report indicates that the overall credit growth is expected to focus on structural optimization, with a shift towards supporting technology innovation and consumer infrastructure [19][21] - The monetary policy is anticipated to remain stable, with potential for further easing if necessary, while the banking sector is expected to maintain asset quality stability [20][21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the target price increases for several listed companies as of December 15, with notable gains in the pharmaceutical and automation sectors [1][5]. - The companies with the highest target price increases include Zejing Pharmaceutical at 35.00%, Zoli Pharmaceutical at 34.58%, and Genesis at 27.40%, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the chemical pharmaceutical, traditional Chinese medicine, and automation equipment industries respectively [1][5]. - A total of 21 listed companies received broker recommendations on December 15, with Zoli Pharmaceutical receiving the most recommendations at 5, while companies like Tiandi Technology and Changbao Co. received 1 recommendation each [6]. Group 2 - On December 15, brokers initiated coverage on 7 companies, with Changbao Co. receiving an "Accumulate" rating from China Merchants Securities, Genesis receiving a "Outperform" rating from China International Capital Corporation, and SAIC Motor receiving a "Buy" rating from Aijian Securities [3][7]. - The newly covered companies include Changbao Co. in the special steel industry, Genesis in the automation equipment sector, and SAIC Motor in the passenger vehicle market, indicating a diverse range of industries being targeted for investment [4][8].

Core Insights - On December 15, 2023, brokerage firms provided target prices for listed companies, with notable increases for Zejing Pharmaceutical, Zoli Pharmaceutical, and Genesis, showing target price increases of 35.00%, 34.58%, and 27.40% respectively, across the chemical pharmaceuticals, traditional Chinese medicine, and automation equipment industries [1][2]. Group 1: Target Price Increases - Zejing Pharmaceutical received a target price increase of 35.00%, with a latest closing price of 135.00 yuan [2]. - Zoli Pharmaceutical's target price increased by 34.58%, with a closing price of 17.18 yuan [2]. - Genesis saw a target price increase of 27.40%, with a closing price of 11.30 yuan [2]. Group 2: Brokerage Recommendations - A total of 21 listed companies received brokerage recommendations on December 15, with Zoli Pharmaceutical receiving the highest number of recommendations at 5 [3]. - Other companies like Tiandi Technology and Changbao Co. received 1 recommendation each [3]. Group 3: First Coverage Ratings - On December 15, 7 companies received initial coverage from brokerages, including Changbao Co. with an "Accumulate" rating from China Merchants Securities [4]. - Genesis received a "Outperform Industry" rating from China International Capital Corporation [4]. - SAIC Motor was rated "Buy" by Aijian Securities [4].

Core Viewpoint - GEV and Siemens have reported significant growth in new gas turbine orders, indicating a strong demand in the gas turbine market, driven by the increasing electricity needs from AI data centers [2][3]. Group 1: Order Growth - GEV signed 114 new gas turbine orders in Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 46%, with heavy-duty gas turbine orders reaching 69 units, up 57% [2][3]. - Siemens' gas service business secured new orders worth €18.2 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting a 42% year-on-year growth, with Q3 orders for gas turbines soaring by 231% to 86 units [2]. Group 2: Capacity Expansion and Financial Guidance - GEV has advanced its annual gas turbine production capacity target from Q3 2026 to H1 2026 and plans to increase its production capacity to 24 GW by 2028, supported by a projected capital expenditure of $10 billion from 2025 to 2028 [3]. - GEV has raised its revenue guidance for 2028 from $45 billion to $52 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin increase from 14% to 20% [3]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - The construction of AI data centers is driving a surge in electricity demand, with gas turbines being positioned as the optimal power supply solution due to their quick construction cycles and stable power output [4]. - There is significant potential for domestic equipment manufacturers to replace foreign brands in the gas turbine market, with several companies identified as key players benefiting from this trend [4][5]. Group 4: Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Jerry Holdings (002353.SZ) for its strong order book and partnerships with major players [5]. - Yingliu Technology (603308.SH) focusing on high-tech turbine blades for domestic replacement [5]. - Haomai Technology (002595.SZ) as a main supplier of gas turbine components [5]. - Liande Co., Ltd. (605060.SH) as a supplier for Caterpillar gas turbines [5].

Summary of Conference Call Records Companies and Industries Involved - **Jereh Group** (杰瑞股份) - **Haimai Technology** (豪迈科技) - **Boinhan Company** (博盈特焊) - **HRSG Industry** (Heat Recovery Steam Generators) Key Points and Arguments Jereh Group - Jereh Group expects to achieve approximately **1.5 billion RMB** in sales revenue from over **200 million USD** gas generator orders by the end of **2025 to 2026**, with a net profit increase of **300-400 million RMB** [1][5] - The company anticipates **70 million USD** in rental income for **2025**, corresponding to a profit of **200 million RMB** [1][5] - Jereh has over **800 MW** of gas turbine resources and plans to expand its capabilities in collaboration with **Baker Hughes** and **Siemens**, aiming for **6-7 billion RMB** in revenue from the power generation segment within five years [1][3][4] - The company has secured two significant orders in North America, totaling over **200 million USD**, with deliveries expected between **2025 and 2026** [2][5] - Jereh's core competitive advantages include strong design capabilities, resource reserves, and channel advantages in North America and the Middle East [6] Haimai Technology - Haimai Technology's stock has reached new highs, benefiting from the gas turbine supply chain, with a projected revenue growth of over **20%** in **2025** [3][12] - The company has a global market share of over **30%** in tire molds and maintains stable cash flow through partnerships with brands like **Bridgestone** and **Michelin** [3][12] - Haimai's large component business has expanded into gas turbines and wind power-related castings, with a strong order backlog for **2025 and 2026** [12][13] - The company is also experiencing growth in CNC machine tools, with expectations of revenue reaching **2.5 to 3 billion RMB** in **2025**, reflecting a **24%** and **20%** year-on-year increase [3][19] Boinhan Company - Boinhan's stock has doubled in less than two months, driven by the high demand in the gas turbine sector [9] - The company is expected to release order announcements that will validate its order-taking capabilities, further boosting its stock price [9][11] - Boinhan's main business is steadily rising, with net profit margins in overseas markets nearing or exceeding **20%** [11] HRSG Industry - The HRSG sector is expanding to meet customer demand, with expectations of price increases in the coming quarters due to sustained demand [10] - The industry is experiencing a significant potential for mid-sized gas turbine matching, which has not yet been fully realized [10] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Jereh's overall performance is projected to reach around **3 billion RMB** in **2025**, with potential to exceed **4 billion RMB** if more orders are secured [7][8] - Haimai's CNC machine tool business is expected to grow significantly, with a focus on high-end five-axis machine tools, which have a market size of approximately **12 billion RMB** [17][18] - The manufacturing industry is anticipated to enter a new upcycle in **2026**, driven by equipment replacement needs and supportive policies [18]

聚焦风电核心零部件，技术实力铸就护城河 根据国家能源局最新数据，我国2025年1-10月新增风电装机容量达7,001万千瓦，较上年同期增长2,421万千瓦。基于这一 强劲增长势头，中金公司研报预计，2025年国内风电新增装机容量有望攀升至110-120GW，不仅将刷新历史纪录，更将 推动上游零部件产业链步入高景气周期。 尤其在风机大型化趋势驱动下，以齿轮箱为代表的核心零部件需求激增，其上游配套专用部件市场亦同步扩容，且市场 份额持续向头部企业集中。目前，国内能稳定供应高端产品的企业屈指可数，仅约4-6家，其中铸造龙头日月股份 （603218）、轮胎模具巨头跨界布局的豪迈科技（002595）、风电铸件专家宏德股份（301163），以及深耕风电齿轮箱 部件的锡华科技（603248），共同构成了行业核心阵营。值得关注的是，锡华科技即将登陆A股主板，此举将进一步壮大 国内高端风电零部件供应商队伍。 球化孕育控制、机械加工方案设计等方面形成了独特的技术优势。截至招股意向书签署日，公司已获得117项授权专利 （含27项发明专利），技术实力获得行业广泛认可。 公司产品能够适应-60℃极端低温及高盐度腐蚀等复杂环境，满足陆上 ...

东方证券表示，当前国内高端数控机床投资机会大，在产业链自主可控的政策导向下，我们认为替代有 望在十五五期间加速推进，为龙头公司带来收入和盈利弹性。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 数据显示，从渗透率来看，2024年我国高端机床渗透率为9.2%，美日已超过50%，渗透率的提升将拉动 市场规模增长。从国产化进程看，中低档数控机床已实现较高的替代，国产化率分别为65%和82%。而 高端数控机床的国产化率仅为6%。根据ifind，我国进口机床均价远高于出口机床均价，海外品牌在高 端机床领域仍有较高的技术优势和品牌优势。 12月12日下午，A股三大指数集体上涨，上证指数盘中上涨0.06%，电子、通信、电力设备等板块涨幅 靠前，商贸零售、综合跌幅居前。机床板块走强，截至13点10分，机床ETF（159663.SZ）上涨0.27%， 其成分股豪迈科技上涨5.70%，合锻智能上涨4.86%，华明装备上涨2.24%，厦门钨业上涨2.20%，泰嘉 股份上涨1.63%。 ...