Core Viewpoint - Codelco, the largest copper mining company globally, is investing in I-Pulse, a mining technology firm that utilizes electric pulses for rock crushing, enhancing energy efficiency in mining exploration [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Codelco is recognized as the world's largest copper mining company [1] - I-Pulse was founded by Robert Friedland, who is also the founder of Ivanhoe Mines [1] Group 2: Technology and Innovation - I-Pulse employs electric pulses to crush rocks, which is a more energy-efficient method compared to traditional exploration techniques [1] - The partnership aims to unlock innovations in mining technology [1] Group 3: Leadership and Collaboration - Robert Friedland and Maximo Pacheco, Chairman of Codelco, discussed their business partnership on Bloomberg Television [1] - The collaboration signifies a strategic move towards modernizing mining practices [1]

Codelco, one of the world’s biggest copper producers, is pursing ways to remove more people from its giant mines in Chile after a deadly collapse underscored the dangers of digging deep underground https://t.co/68SHZOOXZP ...

商 品 研 究 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 85,120 | -0.92% | 86520 | 1.64% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,802 | 4.13% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 291,422 | 78,954 | 201,831 | -14,284 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 29,402 | -11,695 | 323,000 | 583 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 32,890 | 2,926 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 139,350 | -50 | 5.94% | -0.05% | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | 较前日变动 | | | LME铜升贴水 | | 226.78 | -31.19 | 257.97 | | | 保税区 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide industry - wide investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment inclination: - **Gold and Silver**: Gold trend intensity is 1, and silver trend intensity is 1, indicating a moderately positive view [9]. - **Copper**: Copper trend intensity is 2, showing a strong positive view [13]. - **Zinc**: Zinc trend intensity is 0, suggesting a neutral view [16]. - **Lead**: Lead trend intensity is 0, also a neutral view [18]. - **Tin**: Tin trend intensity is 1, a moderately positive view [24]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum trend intensity is 0, aluminum oxide trend intensity is - 1 (negative view), and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [27]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0, both neutral views [31]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs, and silver is set to冲击 50 (presumably a price level) [2][4]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Market sentiment has improved, leading to a price rebound [2][11]. - **Zinc**: The price will experience a weak - side oscillation [2][14]. - **Lead**: The reduction of domestic inventory restricts price decline [2][17]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - economic impacts [2][20]. - **Aluminum**: The price will fluctuate within a certain range; the center of aluminum oxide price will move downward; cast aluminum alloy prices will follow those of electrolytic aluminum [2][25]. - **Nickel**: Under pressure from the macro - economic sentiment, nickel prices will oscillate at a low level [2][28]. - **Stainless Steel**: Pressured by both the macro - economic situation and the actual market, the price decline is limited by the cost [2][29]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price Movements**: - **Gold**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 yesterday was 927.56, with a daily increase of 2.88%, and the night - session closing price was 936.72, up 2.45%. Gold T + D closed at 926.48 yesterday, up 3.20%, and 933.67 at night, up 1.80% [5]. - **Silver**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 yesterday was 11531, up 4.02%, and the night - session closing price was 11710.00, up 4.22%. Silver T + D closed at 11453 yesterday, up 3.53%, and 11669 at night, up 2.55% [5]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Gold 2512 and Shanghai Silver 2512 showed different changes compared with the previous day. The SPDR Gold ETF's position increased by 4 to 1017.16, while the SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) decreased by 8 to 15443.76 [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged at 70728 kg, and the inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 44605 kg to 1124456 kg. The Comex silver inventory (the day before yesterday) decreased by 3660531 ounces to 522463797 ounces [5]. Copper - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 85120, down 0.92%, and the night - session closing price was 86520, up 1.64%. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading price closed at 10802, up 4.13% [11]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 78954 to 291422, and the open interest decreased by 14284 to 201831. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic - trading decreased by 11695 to 29402, and the open interest increased by 583 to 323000 [11]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The Shanghai Copper inventory increased by 2926 to 32890 tons, and the LME Copper inventory decreased by 50 to 139350 tons. The LME Copper cash - 3M premium decreased by 31.19 to 226.78 [11]. - **News**: China's exports and imports in September both exceeded expectations. The European largest copper producer Aurubis raised the European refined copper price for 2026 [11][13]. Zinc - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22255, down 0.07%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - trading price closed at 2984.5, down 0.98% [14]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 2566 to 177344, and the open interest decreased by 4835 to 101699. The trading volume of the LME Zinc decreased by 5593 to 16666, and the open interest increased by 621 to 220860 [14]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The Shanghai Zinc inventory decreased by 1030 to 59614 tons, and the LME Zinc inventory decreased by 475 to 37475 tons. The LME Zinc cash - 3M premium increased by 42.45 to 100.45 [14]. - **News**: China's exports and imports in September exceeded expectations [15]. Lead - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17095, down 0.26%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - trading price closed at 2014.5, down 0.30% [17]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 30286 to 66594, and the open interest decreased by 807 to 43988. The trading volume of the LME Lead increased by 2032 to 13567, and the open interest decreased by 3233 to 143335 [17]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The Shanghai Lead inventory decreased by 499 to 29569 tons, and the LME Lead inventory remained unchanged at 237000 tons. The LME Lead cash - 3M premium decreased by 6.22 to - 38.22 [17]. - **News**: China's exports and imports in September exceeded expectations, and the Chinese Ministry of Transport issued a method for collecting special port fees for US ships [18]. Tin - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 282110, down 1.48%, and the night - session closing price was 282800, down 0.26%. The LME Tin 3M electronic - trading price closed at 35350, down 3.99% [21]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 1793 to 106939, and the open interest decreased by 3722 to 30938. The trading volume of the LME Tin decreased by 9 to 180, and the open interest increased by 53 to 13988 [21]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 64 to 5745 tons, and the LME Tin inventory decreased by 25 to 2385 tons. The LME Tin cash - 3M premium decreased by 5 to - 62 [21]. - **News**: There were multiple macro - economic and industry news, such as China's export control on rare - earth items and the investigation of Qualcomm for antitrust violations [22]. Aluminum and Related Products - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20885, down 95, and the night - session closing price was 20975. The LME Aluminum 3M price closed at 2757, up 11. The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum Oxide main contract was 2820, down 36, and the night - session closing price was 2807. The closing price of the Aluminum Alloy main contract was 20410, down 130, and the night - session closing price was 20490 [25]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Aluminum, LME Aluminum, Shanghai Aluminum Oxide, and Aluminum Alloy showed different changes compared with previous periods [25]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 0.80 to 64.20 million tons, and the LME Aluminum inventory decreased by 0.28 to 50.60 million tons. The prices and premiums of related products also changed [25]. - **News**: The Chinese Ministry of Transport issued a method for collecting special port fees for US ships [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121410, down 770, and the closing price of the Stainless - Steel main contract was 12655, down 125 [29]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract decreased by 10068 to 149002, and the trading volume of the Stainless - Steel main contract increased by 146677 to 306704 [29]. - **Industry Chain Data**: The prices of electrolytic nickel, high - nickel pig iron, stainless - steel products, and related premiums and profits showed different changes [29]. - **News**: There were multiple industry news, such as the Indonesian government's takeover of a nickel - mining area and China's suspension of non - official subsidies for imported copper and nickel from Russia [29][30].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's September import and export data exceeded expectations, with exports in US dollars up 8.3% year - on - year and imports up 7.4% year - on - year [7][8]. - Glass is short - term weak and medium - term in a volatile market; sugar is under pressure due to supply surplus expectations [9][10]. - Different commodities have different price trends, such as gold continuing to hit new highs, silver approaching a 50 - high, etc. [13] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Today's Discovery - China's September import and export data in US dollars showed strong growth, with export growth at a six - month high and import growth at a 17 - month high. The acceleration of imports may be related to policy - based financial tools and project starts [7][8]. 3.2 Director's Top Picks Glass - Short - term: Market has large differences on future production cuts, downstream has sufficient inventory, and real - estate market is weak, so the spot market is weak. - Medium - term: Anti - deflation and anti - involution policies are still in the window period, and the previous high futures premium has changed, so be cautious at low levels [9]. Sugar - Brazil's sugar production and export situation: As of September 16, 25/26 season, cumulative sugar production was 3039 million tons, and September exports decreased. - India has a large - scale production increase expectation, with an expected 3490 million tons in the 25/26 season. - China's sugar imports remain at a high level, with an expected import volume of 500 million tons in both 24/25 and 25/26 seasons [10]. 3.3 Commodity Research Morning Report Precious Metals - Gold continues to hit new highs, and silver approaches a 50 - high. The report provides detailed price, trading volume, inventory, and other data [13][17]. Base Metals - Copper: Market sentiment improves, and prices rise. - Zinc: Weakly volatile. - Lead: Domestic inventory reduction limits price decline. - Tin: Pay attention to macro - impacts. - Aluminum: Ranges in a volatile market; alumina's center of gravity moves down; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [13][23][26]. Other Metals and Minerals - Nickel: Macro - sentiment turns bearish, and prices are low - level volatile. - Stainless steel: Macro and reality jointly exert pressure, and the lower - cost limit restricts price elasticity. - Carbonate lithium: Warehouse receipts are largely liquidated, providing upward momentum. - Industrial silicon: Limited upside space. - Polysilicon: There are many self - discipline meetings this week, warehouse receipts are slightly liquidated, and market sentiment may improve [13][39][42]. Building Materials and Energy - Iron ore: Widely volatile. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Weak reality and weakening expectations may lead to a slight decline in steel prices. - Coke and coking coal: Macro - expectations are fluctuating, and prices are weakly volatile. - Logs: Fluctuate repeatedly [13][51][60]. Chemicals - PX and PTA: Weak in the medium term. - MEG: 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage [13][66].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, presenting insights into market trends, influencing factors, and corresponding investment suggestions. It takes into account factors such as policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and geopolitical events to assess market conditions and risks [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices soared over 3% to above $4100, reaching a new high. The market's bullish sentiment was high, with funds flowing into gold. The short - term market sentiment dominated the trend, and market volatility increased as gold prices entered uncharted territory [13]. - Investment advice: Gold prices are strong in the short term, and market volatility intensifies [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Fed official Anna Paulson hinted at two more 25 - basis - point rate cuts this year, believing that tariffs have a controllable impact on inflation. This dovish stance led to a short - term weakening of the US dollar index [16]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - On Monday, the A - share market showed three unexpected features: a sharp gap - down opening, shrinking trading volume despite strong dip - buying意愿, and significant divergence between the Sci - tech Innovation and ChiNext boards. - Investment advice: Balance the allocation of various stock index contracts to cope with the rapidly rotating market [21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed official Paulson supports two more 25 - basis - point rate cuts this year. The AI sector remains the main driving force for the index's rise [22][23]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the negotiation progress and look for opportunities to enter the market on dips [24]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's September import and export growth exceeded expectations. The stock market's bullish sentiment remained unchanged, and it is expected that the bond market will fluctuate in the short term [27]. - Investment advice: The bond market will fluctuate in the short term. After the new regulations on fund fees are implemented, there will be opportunities to buy on dips [28]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Overnight, the external market fell more than 3%. However, as Brazil's peak crushing season passes and the Northern Hemisphere enters a new crushing season, the downward space for ICE raw sugar is not optimistic [32]. - Investment advice: Due to the impact of the external market decline, Zhengzhou sugar is in a weak downward trend, but it is not recommended to short aggressively [33]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - China's September soybean imports reached a record high for the same period. As of October 10, soybean inventory continued to rise, but soybean meal inventory decreased due to the drop in oil mill operating rates during the holiday [36]. - Investment advice: It is expected that the prices of domestic and foreign futures will fluctuate temporarily. Continue to monitor the planting situation of new Brazilian soybeans and the development of Sino - US relations [37]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.59% month - on - month. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased by 0.83% month - on - month but was still higher than last year [39][40]. - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to buy palm oil on dips, and pay attention to Indonesia's biodiesel policy and October production [40]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - On October 13, the price of red dates in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market stabilized. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 closed slightly higher [41]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see. Focus on the price negotiation in the production area and the acquisition progress [42]. 2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - India's coal production in September decreased year - on - year. Although coal prices rebounded in the short term, the seasonal weakness from October to November is difficult to change [44]. - Investment advice: Coal prices are expected to continue to decline [44]. 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - India's GPIL plans to expand its iron ore mine. Short - term policy factors may support ore prices, but terminal demand is weak, and the short - term upward space is limited [45]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to short - term policy impacts, but the short - term upward space is limited [46]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch companies' theoretical profits have turned positive. It is expected that the spot rice - flour price difference will continue to narrow in the long - term [47]. - Investment advice: Consider short - term opportunities to short the spot rice - flour price difference [47]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - On October 13, domestic corn prices continued to decline. The corn market has entered the production - area pricing stage, and the current price is unlikely to have bottomed out [48]. - Investment advice: Hold existing short positions and avoid early entry for long positions [48]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The US government stopped a large - scale solar project. The spot price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable in October. The PS2511 contract is significantly discounted, and light - position long positions can be considered [52]. - Investment advice: Consider light - position long positions in the PS2511 contract and pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity [52]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The US imposed high tariffs on Angolan industrial silicon. The price floor of industrial silicon is more definite, and it is recommended to buy on dips [54]. - Investment advice: Consider buying industrial silicon on dips, but be cautious when chasing up [54]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - As of October 13, the social inventory of lead ingots decreased. Due to short - term supply - demand mismatch, Shanghai lead may fluctuate upward [56]. - Investment advice: Look for buying opportunities on pullbacks and beware of delivery risks [56]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - As of October 13, the domestic zinc inventory increased. The global visible inventory is rising marginally. The Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate widely [57]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see. Consider medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities [58]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The accident at El Teniente copper mine will affect production until 2026. The short - term copper price is likely to fluctuate upward [63]. - Investment advice: Buy copper on pullbacks and wait and see for arbitrage [63]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia requires nickel mining companies to submit 2026 production plans. Nickel ore prices are expected to rise in Q4. It is recommended to buy on dips after sentiment is released [67]. - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to buy nickel on dips after sentiment is released [67]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Australia is considering a key minerals agreement with the US. The short - term lithium price may fluctuate narrowly. It is recommended to short on rallies [70]. - Investment advice: Short lithium carbonate on rallies and pay attention to the LC2511 - 2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity [70]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Trump's tariff statement brought uncertainty. The profit of PDH is unsustainable. It is recommended to short the PDH profit on the right - hand side [74]. - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to short the PDH profit on the right - hand side [74]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's September crude oil production increased. The short - term market sentiment has recovered, but the upward space is limited [75]. - Investment advice: The short - term upward space for crude oil prices is limited [76]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - On October 13, the PX price fell. It is expected to follow the oil price and fluctuate downward [77]. - Investment advice: PX is expected to fluctuate downward following the oil price [79]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - In September, domestic asphalt production increased. The supply - demand fundamentals are unlikely to have a continuous mismatch [81]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [82]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - On October 13, the PTA spot price declined. The short - term PTA price is expected to fluctuate downward, and the PTA - oil price spread may widen passively [83]. - Investment advice: PTA is expected to fluctuate downward, and the PTA - oil price spread may widen passively [85]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - On October 13, the methanol price in Taicang increased. The short - term methanol price is likely to rise but with limited upward space [86]. - Investment advice: The short - term methanol price is likely to rise, but the upward space is limited [86]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - As of October 13, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased. It is not recommended to expand the styrene - benzene spread [87]. - Investment advice: Do not expand the styrene - benzene spread [87]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - On October 13, bottle chip factories lowered their export prices. The supply - demand contradiction may accumulate in the fourth quarter [91]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the factory's resumption of production and the new device's commissioning [91]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On October 13, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased locally. It is necessary to be cautious when bottom - fishing [94]. - Investment advice: Be cautious when bottom - fishing caustic soda [94]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - On October 13, the price of imported wood pulp showed differentiation. The pulp market is expected to fluctuate downward [96]. - Investment advice: The pulp market is expected to fluctuate downward [96]. 2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity decreased. It is not recommended to be overly bearish on urea after the UR2601 contract falls below 1600 yuan/ton [100]. - Investment advice: Do not be overly bearish on urea after the UR2601 contract falls below 1600 yuan/ton [100]. 2.27 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - On October 13, the PVC powder market price fluctuated slightly. Pay attention to macro changes [101]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to macro changes [101]. 2.28 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of October 13, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased. It is recommended to short soda ash on rallies [102]. - Investment advice: Short soda ash on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [102]. 2.29 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - On October 13, the price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased. It is recommended to consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on FG2601 and shorting SA2601 [105]. - Investment advice: Consider the arbitrage opportunity of going long on FG2601 and shorting SA2601 [105].

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing price fluctuations due to escalating trade tensions, with recent price drops being partially offset by a recovery in market sentiment. The domestic copper inventory continues to accumulate amid high prices, and uncertainties in trade dynamics persist, leading to a high-level retreat in copper prices while concerns about supply from mining remain [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On Friday, copper prices fell by 2.06%, with a significant drop occurring during the night session due to trade friction [1]. - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain low at -40 USD/dry ton, indicating limited changes in the market, necessitating close monitoring of whether tight supply will continue to affect the smelting sector [1]. - Recent price movements have raised concerns that high copper prices may suppress downstream demand [1]. Group 2: Supply and Production Insights - Codelco of Chile has raised its estimate for copper production losses at the El Teniente project, although its overall production targets remain unchanged [1]. - The Freeport Indonesia mine accident is expected to result in a production cut of approximately 470,000 tons from Q4 this year to next year, which will significantly alter the global supply-demand balance, leading to a tight equilibrium in global copper supply and demand by 2026 [1]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve has initiated interest rate cuts, with market expectations indicating two more cuts within the year, contributing to a macroeconomic environment of dual easing in fiscal and monetary policy in the U.S. [1]. - Following the resolution of current market shocks, copper prices are expected to continue their upward trend, suggesting opportunities for strategic buying on dips [1].

Core Viewpoint - LME copper futures prices have significantly increased, recovering some losses from the previous week, driven by supply concerns from major producers like Codelco [1] Group 1: LME Copper Futures Performance - On October 13, LME copper futures opened at $10,490 per ton and reached a current price of $10,577.5 per ton, marking a 1.96% increase [1] - The intraday trading saw a high of $10,688 per ton and a low of $10,480 per ton [1] - On October 10, LME copper futures closed at $10,374 per ton, down 3.73% from the previous trading session [1] Group 2: Market Data and Trends - As of October 10, the electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 8.0, with an import loss of -1,012.46 yuan per ton, improving from -1,166.87 yuan per ton the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper warehouse receipts of 29,964 tons, an increase of 261 tons from the previous trading day [1] - LME registered copper warehouse receipts totaled 131,050 tons, with 8,350 tons canceled, a decrease of 75 tons, while total copper inventory stood at 139,400 tons, also down by 75 tons [1] Group 3: Supply Concerns - Analysts from ANZ Bank indicated ongoing supply-side issues, particularly highlighting concerns from Codelco regarding its El Teniente mine operating below capacity in the coming months [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short - term, copper prices are mainly oscillating weakly due to the enhanced market expectation of an economic downturn caused by Sino - US trade conflicts, although the fundamentals still support copper prices in the medium - term as domestic demand expectations during the "Golden September and Silver October" period are rising while domestic production is expected to decline slightly [6]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review - During the National Day holiday, LME copper rose about 5% compared to before the holiday, driven by macro factors such as a 32,000 - person drop in ADP employment data, which strengthened the market's expectation of two Fed rate cuts within the year, and supply - side factors like the shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine and the fermentation of copper mine disruptions. The Shanghai copper main contract rose 4% on the first trading day after the holiday but weakened slightly on the 10th, closing at 85,910 yuan/ton. However, on the Friday night session, copper prices dropped significantly due to Trump's mention of imposing a 100% tariff on China, and are currently at the level of 83,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Supply and Demand - Supply: The Grasberg mine's output in Q4 2025 is nearly zero, about 200,000 tons less than the original guidance, and its 2026 output may drop about 35% from the original plan. Codelco in Chile had a significant year - on - year decline in August output, BHP's copper mine production disruptions increased, and Teck Resources lowered the production target of its large - scale mines. China's refined copper production in September was 1.121 million tons, a 4.31% month - on - month decrease, and is expected to decline 3.43% month - on - month in October. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has proposed to strictly control the expansion of copper smelting capacity, and there may be a global copper mine supply gap in Q4 [4]. - Demand: After the holiday, the State Grid released some orders, and the resumption of work after the holiday is expected to further improve the downstream operating level, but high copper prices have a certain impact on market activity [4]. - Inventory: Global inventories have started to rise slightly. SMM expects an increase in imported and domestic copper supplies, and high copper prices will suppress downstream purchasing sentiment, so inventories are expected to increase this week [4]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Factors - On October 10th, the US announced a 100% tariff on China in response to China's export controls on rare earths and other related items and imposed export controls on all key software, which intensified market concerns about the global economic outlook and led to an increase in risk - aversion sentiment [5].

Codelco acquired a stake in a Robert Friedland venture that uses electricity to shatter rocks as the Chilean copper giant seeks to make its aging mines more efficient https://t.co/0EjXX6E0s0 ...