丨证券研究报告丨 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521020001 SAC：S0490524090001 SFC：BUV596 吴一凡 谢宇尘 程泽宇 行业研究丨点评报告丨投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Title] 2025Q1 公募基金持仓点评：非银板块配置仍显 低配，券商和保险持仓环比下滑 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 基金非银板块配置环比持续回落，被动基金持仓占比高于主动型基金。1）被动基金持保险市值 占比高于主动型基金，主被动基金持仓均集中于中国平安；2）被动基金持券商市值占比高于主 动型基金，个股仍集中于头部机构；3）主动基金持多元金融市值占比高于被动型基金，仅有部 分个股存在持仓。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 投资银行业与经纪业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 2025Q1 公募基金持仓点评：非银板块配置仍显 2] 低配，券商和保险持仓环比下滑 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公募基金披露 2025 年一季度重仓持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tax business environment in Yunnan is showcasing innovative practices aimed at optimizing the business environment through smart tax services and targeted policies [1] Group 1: Tax Service Innovations - Yunnan's tax authorities have established a three-dimensional publicity system combining online, offline, and customized services to enhance policy implementation [2] - The "Spring Breeze Tax Rain" live streaming platform has been launched to provide real-time guidance on tax declaration processes, significantly improving efficiency and accuracy for taxpayers [2] - The "First Class for New Businesses" initiative integrates tax education into the business setup process, reducing the time for tax registration and invoice application from 3 days to under 2 hours [3] Group 2: Smart Tax System - The tax department has developed a "smart hub + intelligent terminal" service system, enabling over 98% of tax matters to be handled online, with 160+ services available on mobile [4] - A collaborative service center has been established to enhance efficiency, allowing businesses to complete tax-related tasks without needing to visit physical offices [4] Group 3: Policy Implementation and Benefits - A three-pronged mechanism of "policy radar + intelligent matching + risk prevention" has been created to ensure that tax benefits reach businesses effectively [5] - The implementation of a "one enterprise, one policy" service file allows for tailored support, resulting in significant tax savings for companies [5] - Companies have reported substantial tax reductions due to targeted policies, with one company saving 898,200 yuan through R&D expense deductions [5][6]

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index closing at 21,972, down 0.04% for the day but up 28.89% year-to-date [1] - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.20% and the Shenzhen Composite Index down 0.93% [3] - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 2.03 billion [3] Company Analysis BYD Electronics (285 HK) - The company reported flat earnings for Q1 2025, primarily due to weak demand for high-end smartphones and potential tariff impacts on Apple’s assembly business [4] - The gross profit margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 6.3% quarter-on-quarter, but decreased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Management maintains a positive outlook for 2025, citing growth in Apple assembly, stable Android business, strong automotive demand, and growth in servers/robots [4] Wentech Technology (600745 CH) - The company’s revenue decreased by 19.4% year-on-year to RMB 13.1 billion, but net profit surged by 82.3% to RMB 261 million [5] - The gross margin recovered to 14.0%, indicating resilience in the semiconductor business [5] - The company is transitioning to focus on semiconductor business after divesting its ODM operations, which is expected to drive future growth [5] Li Ning (2331 HK) - Retail sales growth deteriorated in April 2025, with management noting a decline in offline channels due to adverse weather and a challenging macro environment [6][7] - Despite the challenges, the company maintains its full-year guidance, expecting stable sales growth and high single-digit net profit margins [6] - The company’s Q1 retail sales growth was in line with expectations, with online channels performing strongly [7] China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK) - The company reported a 39% year-on-year increase in new business value for Q1 2025, exceeding expectations [11][12] - However, the group’s net profit fell by 18.1% to RMB 9.63 billion, primarily due to declines in bond fair value and mismatches in yield curves [11] - The management expects operational profit to maintain low single-digit growth for the year, supported by business transformation [13] Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH) - The company’s EBIT grew by only 2% year-on-year to RMB 440 million, with net profit increasing by 42% due to non-operating income [10] - The company faces challenges from unpredictable U.S. tariff policies, which may impact demand for its products in the U.S. market [10] - The target price remains at RMB 44, reflecting a cautious outlook on profitability [10] 康方生物 (9926 HK) - The company continues to show promise with its drug AK112, which has demonstrated efficacy in clinical trials against competitors [9][10] - The ongoing trials in overseas markets are expected to yield significant data, enhancing the drug's potential for approval and market entry [9][10] - The target price for 康方生物 is set at HKD 108.03, maintaining a buy rating based on the drug's promising results [10]

Core Insights - The report indicates a reduction in public fund holdings in the insurance sector, with a total holding of 0.75% in Q1 2025, down by 0.09 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][4] - The overall non-bank financial sector holdings decreased to 1.27%, reflecting a broader trend of reduced allocations in both insurance and securities [2][4] - The report highlights a mixed performance among individual insurance stocks, with increases in holdings for China Ping An, New China Life, and China Life, while China Pacific Insurance and China Property & Casualty Insurance saw reductions [4][5] Industry Analysis - The insurance industry is experiencing a trend of reduced allocations, primarily driven by China Pacific Insurance and China Property & Casualty Insurance, which have seen significant decreases in public fund holdings [4][5] - The report notes that the first quarter of 2025 is characterized by a focus on asset management and the "opening red" period, with fluctuations in interest rates impacting bond trading and overall performance [5][7] - The report anticipates that the recent decline in interest rates to around 1.65% may alleviate pressure from bond trading losses, potentially enhancing equity investment returns [8][9] Company-Specific Insights - China Ping An remains the most heavily held stock in the insurance sector, with a holding of 0.29%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.01 percentage points [4][8] - New China Life and China Life also saw increases in their holdings, indicating positive market sentiment towards their profitability and pricing strategies [4][9] - Conversely, China Pacific Insurance and China Property & Casualty Insurance have faced declines in their holdings, suggesting market concerns regarding their performance [4][9]

Core Insights - Shanghai's "Hu Hui Bao" insurance program has seen significant growth, with over 4 million participants on its first day of sales in 2025, marking a 20,000 increase from the previous year [1][2][4] - The program has maintained a stable annual participation rate of over 30%, indicating strong demand and acceptance among the population [4] - The introduction of various innovative insurance products targeting specific demographics reflects a broader trend in Shanghai's insurance market towards inclusive and accessible coverage [1][5][6] Summary by Category Product Development - "Hu Hui Bao" has expanded its coverage to include more domestic and international specialty drugs, increasing the number of covered drugs from 41 to 48, and CAR-T therapy options from 3 to 4 [1] - New insurance products such as "Hu Er Bao" for children's outpatient and inpatient coverage, "Hu Bu Bao" for advanced medical equipment, and "Hu Ji Bao" for delivery riders have been launched, showcasing a diverse range of offerings [1][2][5] Market Impact - "Hu Hui Bao" has become the largest public welfare insurance project in China since its launch in 2021, with cumulative claims exceeding 2.2 billion yuan and a total of 1.1 million cases settled [2][4] - The introduction of "Hu Jia Bao," a family comprehensive insurance product, has provided coverage for 814,300 households, offering risk protection of 579 billion yuan [4] Regulatory and Policy Support - The Chinese government has emphasized the importance of inclusive finance, with specific policies aimed at promoting the development of inclusive insurance products [6][7] - Shanghai's financial regulatory body has outlined six specific requirements to enhance the quality and reach of inclusive insurance, including optimizing health insurance offerings and improving management mechanisms [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial sector has shown strong performance recently, with all sub-sectors outperforming the CSI 300 index over the last five trading days [3][8] - The securities industry has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with April's average daily trading amount reaching 14,525 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.59% [13] - The insurance sector is facing stricter regulations on universal insurance, but there are signs of recovery in life insurance premiums [26][30] - The multi-financial sector is transitioning to a stable growth phase, with trust assets showing a notable increase, while the futures market continues to maintain high transaction volumes [34][40] Summary by Sections 1. Recent Performance of Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sectors - All non-bank financial sub-sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index in the recent five trading days, with the insurance sector rising by 1.31% and the overall non-bank financial sector increasing by 1.02% [3][8] 2. Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sector Insights 2.1 Securities - Trading volume has significantly increased, with April's average daily trading amount at 14,525 billion yuan, up 44.59% year-on-year [13] - The net profit of 19 listed securities firms in Q1 2025 increased by 43.6% year-on-year, totaling 74.2 billion yuan [17] - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities industry is projected to be 1.2x for 2025E, indicating potential for growth [23] 2.2 Insurance - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has implemented stricter regulations on universal insurance, which may impact new business but not existing policies [26] - Life insurance premiums showed a slight recovery in March, with total premiums reaching 17,878 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [30] - The insurance sector's valuation is currently at historical lows, with a projected P/EV of 0.50-0.81 for 2025E [32] 2.3 Multi-Financial - The trust industry is entering a stable transition phase, with total trust assets reaching 27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.5% [34] - The futures market saw a transaction volume of 7.34 billion contracts in March 2025, with a transaction value of 61.59 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.28% [40] 3. Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The recommended ranking for the non-bank financial sector is insurance > securities > other multi-financial services, with key companies including New China Life Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, China Life Insurance, and CITIC Securities [52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the investment banking and brokerage industry [10] Core Insights - The report highlights that the performance of the non-bank sector has lagged behind the broader market since the beginning of 2025, with a slight market correction observed this week. However, the first quarter results for brokerages show stable improvement, suggesting a favorable environment for investment [2][7] - It is recommended to actively increase allocations in April, with a focus on stocks that exhibit both performance and valuation growth. The report emphasizes the importance of patience in waiting for catalysts while continuing to invest in high-growth, undervalued stocks [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-bank financial index increased by 1.2% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.8%. However, year-to-date, the non-bank financial index is down 8.6%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 4.9% [8] - The average daily trading volume in the market rose to 11,466.36 billion yuan, a 3.43% increase week-on-week, while the margin trading balance decreased slightly to 1.81 trillion yuan [8][39] Brokerage Performance - The report notes that the brokerage sector's performance is improving, with a recommendation to focus on high-growth, low-valuation stocks during the ongoing market correction [7] - Specific stocks recommended include New China Life Insurance, China Life Insurance, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, and Tonghuashun, with a focus on M&A themes for China Galaxy and stable dividend stocks like China Pacific Insurance and Jiangsu Jinzhong [7] Financial Market Trends - The report indicates that the financial supply-side reform is accelerating, particularly in the brokerage industry, which is progressing rapidly. This environment presents opportunities for thematic investments in the short term [7] - The report also tracks key financial metrics, noting that the average daily turnover and trading volume have shown signs of recovery, indicating a potential upward trend in brokerage profitability [39][45] Insurance Sector Insights - The insurance sector saw a cumulative premium income of 21,745 billion yuan in March 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.93%. However, life insurance premiums showed a slight decline [25][29] - The total assets of the insurance industry reached 37.84 trillion yuan, with a net asset scale of 3.52 trillion yuan, indicating a healthy growth trajectory [29][30] Investment Banking Activity - In March 2025, equity financing reached 568.10 billion yuan, a significant increase of 1141.3% month-on-month, while bond financing also saw a rise to 8.69 trillion yuan, up 26.5% [49][50] - The report anticipates an increase in stock underwriting volumes due to the promotion of refinancing regulations and registration systems, while bond underwriting will need to be monitored closely in relation to interest rate fluctuations [50]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [20]. Core Insights - The new regulations on universal insurance are expected to stabilize the industry by tightening both liability and asset requirements, which will help mitigate risks associated with the asset allocation pressure faced by insurance companies [3][4]. - The total premium for the insurance industry in the first quarter of 2025 was 21,745 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, with property insurance premiums increasing by 5.1% and life insurance premiums decreasing by 0.3% [2][4]. - The average investment return assumption for listed insurance companies has been lowered in 2024, which may help alleviate the pressure on net investment returns and lead to a valuation recovery in the insurance sector [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance index rose by 1.31% this week, outperforming the market by 0.93 percentage points, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Sunshine (+2.64%) and ZhongAn (+2.57%) [1]. Regulatory Developments - The Financial Regulatory Authority issued a notification on April 25, 2025, to strengthen the regulation of universal life insurance, which includes provisions for adjusting minimum guaranteed interest rates and investment limits in various asset classes [2][3]. Company Performance - China Ping An reported a net profit of 27.016 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a decrease of 26% year-on-year, while its operating profit increased by 2.4% [2]. - China Pacific Insurance achieved a net profit of 9.627 billion yuan in Q1 2025, down 18% year-on-year [2]. Investment Recommendations - The recommended order for investment is: Property Insurance H, Ping An, Pacific Insurance, Xinhua, and China Life, with specific price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios provided for each company [5][9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the recovery of financial technology holdings as traditional brokerage and insurance holdings decline, indicating a shift in investment focus [3] - The report highlights the expected benefits from the central government's supportive policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and capital markets, which are anticipated to create investment opportunities [4] - The first quarter earnings reports are expected to exceed forecasts, particularly for companies like Jiangsu Jinzhong, which reported a 20% growth in revenue and pre-provision profit [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The non-bank financial sector is experiencing a significant shift with a 24% decline in traditional brokerage and insurance holdings, while financial technology holdings are on the rise [2] Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector is benefiting from a year-on-year increase in trading volume, with daily average stock fund turnover reaching 1.38 trillion, up 2% week-on-week [5] - Key financial technology companies reported strong first-quarter earnings, with notable profit increases such as 39% for Dongfang Caifu and 726% for Zhinanzhen [5] - The brokerage sector is viewed positively due to low valuations and strong first-quarter performance, with a focus on retail-oriented brokers and financial technology [5] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector faced challenges in the first quarter due to market volatility affecting net profits, with some companies reporting declines [5] - New regulations on universal insurance are expected to lower liability costs and mitigate risks associated with interest rate fluctuations [5] - The report suggests monitoring the impact of capital market fluctuations on insurance companies' net assets and profits [5] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Jiangsu Jinzhong, China Pacific Insurance, and Hong Kong Stock Exchange, among others [6] - Beneficiary stocks include Guoxin Securities, Jiu Fang Zhitu Holdings, and China Galaxy Securities [6]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant rebound in global markets, particularly in Hong Kong stocks, driven by consumer discretionary, information technology, and financial sectors, while raw materials and telecommunications services faced declines [3] - The report indicates that the U.S. market experienced volatility, with early gains reversing due to comments from Treasury Secretary suggesting no immediate tariff reductions on China, impacting market sentiment [3] - The report emphasizes the ongoing impact of tariff shocks on the U.S. economy, predicting risks of stagflation in the short term and recession in the long term due to rising import costs and declining demand [3] Company Analysis - New Oriental (EDU US) reported a 2% year-on-year decline in net revenue to $1.18 billion, with a forecasted growth of 10%-13% in the next quarter, reflecting pressures from its overseas business [4] - ZTE Corporation (763 HK) showed an 8% year-on-year revenue growth to RMB 33 billion, driven by strong performance in its enterprise business, although net profit fell by 11% due to declining gross margins [4] - The report provides a list of focus stocks with target prices and potential upside, including Geely Automobile (175 HK) with a target price of HKD 23.00, indicating a 43% upside [5] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 22,073, up 2.37% for the day and 29.48% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 3.07% [1] - The report notes that European markets rebounded, particularly Germany's DAX, which increased by 3.14%, reflecting a recovery from tariff impacts [3] - The report highlights the performance of various sectors within the Hong Kong market, with the Hang Seng Financial Index up 2.15% and the Hang Seng Industrial Index up 2.68% [2]