Core Viewpoint - The civil aviation industry is experiencing a recovery in passenger transport volume growth, with supply remaining low and price declines narrowing. The performance during the May Day holiday indicates positive trends in revenue management for airlines, suggesting an optimistic outlook for price improvements in the aviation sector [1]. Group 1: Operational Data - In April 2025, all airlines reported an increase in operational volume, with growth rates slightly higher than in March. Among major airlines, Eastern Airlines showed the highest growth rate, while Spring Airlines outperformed 吉祥航空 among private carriers. The passenger load factor for the three major airlines continued to rise, with Southern Airlines and Eastern Airlines exceeding 85%, while Spring Airlines experienced a slight decline and 吉祥航空 saw a slight increase [1]. - Domestic flight volumes in April 2025 showed a significant recovery compared to March, with a slight year-on-year increase compared to April 2024. Major airlines reported a slight increase in domestic capacity, with Spring Airlines increasing capacity and 吉祥航空 slightly decreasing it. The passenger load factor for the three major airlines and Spring Airlines improved, while 吉祥航空 saw a decline [2]. Group 2: International Market Performance - The international and regional flight markets are steadily expanding, with significant recovery in routes to Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Malaysia, and Vietnam. Among major airlines, Air China and Eastern Airlines showed rapid growth in capacity, while 吉祥航空 shifted a significant portion of its capacity to international routes. The load factors for international flights varied, with Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, and 吉祥航空 showing improvements, while Air China and Spring Airlines experienced declines [2]. Group 3: Supply and Cost Factors - The introduction of new aircraft remains low, with the civil aviation fleet expected to grow by only 2.8% to 4,126 aircraft in 2024, including a reduction of 9 wide-body aircraft. In the first four months of 2025, only 64 new aircraft were introduced, indicating slow supply growth. Additionally, recent declines in oil prices and stable exchange rates are expected to positively impact the cost structure of the aviation industry, leading to potential improvements in second-quarter performance [3].

证券研究报告：航空运输|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 2000.5 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 2398.85 | | 52 周最低 | | 1625.59 | 分析师:曾凡喆 SAC 登记编号:S1340523100002 Email:zengfanzhe@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《6 月客座率超 19 年同期，中报预告基 本符合预期》 - 2024.07.16 航空运输 4 月数据点评 客座率同比走高，价格预期改善 l 各航司披露 2025 年 4 月运营数据 各航空公司披露 2025 年 4 月运营数据。4 月各航司整体运量保 持增长，增速略快于 3 月。各航司间运营表现有所分化，大航中，东 航运量增速靠前，民营航司中，春秋增速快于吉祥。客座率方面，三 大航客座率继续走高，南航、东航客座率突破 85%，春秋客座率略有 下降，吉祥客座率略有上升。 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 2024-05 2024-07 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 -20% -16% -12% -8% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the airline transportation industry is "Positive" [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline in ticket prices, with expectations for continued recovery in ticket prices during the peak travel season due to strong demand [3][5]. - The report suggests focusing on key airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines as potential investment opportunities [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report indicates that the passenger load factor remains high, with strong travel demand during the May Day holiday, leading to a noticeable reduction in the year-on-year decline in ticket prices [3][4]. 2. Industry Ticket Price Trends - The year-on-year decline in industry ticket prices has significantly narrowed, with ticket prices in May showing a decline of only 3.0% compared to the previous year [5][27]. - The average domestic ticket price from the beginning of 2025 until May 18 is 847 yuan, reflecting a 10.0% year-on-year decrease [5][27]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is affected by fleet issues, with potential delays in aircraft introductions due to supply chain problems and limited short-term improvements in utilization rates due to engine maintenance [3][4]. - The demand side shows sustained growth in travel demand during peak seasons, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics and a potential rise in ticket prices [3][4]. 4. Operational Performance of Airlines - In April 2025, domestic airlines experienced a year-on-year increase in capacity and turnover, with passenger load factors exceeding levels from 2019 [47][49]. - The report notes that China Southern Airlines had the highest net increase in aircraft in April, adding five aircraft to its fleet [47][48]. 5. Fuel Price Trends - The average price of aviation fuel has shown a continuous year-on-year decline, with May's average price at 5,385 yuan per ton, down 19.0% from the previous year [41][41]. - Brent crude oil prices have also decreased, with a year-on-year decline of 23.6% as of May 16, 2025 [41][41]. 6. Exchange Rate Stability - The exchange rate has remained stable, with the USD to RMB exchange rate at 7.1916 as of May 19, 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.04% from the end of 2024 [41][41].

Core Viewpoint - China Southern Airlines (CSA) is actively participating in the 34th Harbin International Economic and Trade Fair to enhance cooperation with Heilongjiang Province and contribute to the construction of the Harbin International Aviation Hub [1][2]. Group 1: Company Initiatives - CSA has made significant progress in opening new routes and innovation, aiming to play a leading role among domestic airlines [1][3]. - The airline plans to optimize its route network and enhance regional transportation connectivity, including the transformation of the Harbin-Jinan-Urumqi route into a direct flight and the introduction of new flights to various cities [3][4]. - CSA is committed to providing specialized services such as forest fire prevention, aerial rescue, and sightseeing tourism to support Heilongjiang's development [3]. Group 2: Exhibition Highlights - At the trade fair, CSA showcased its advantages in domestic and international route networks, cabin services, and multimodal transport, emphasizing its leadership in civil aviation and green development [4][6]. - The exhibition booth, covering 180 square meters, incorporated elements of ice and snow, technology, and environmental protection, highlighting CSA's brand image and technological innovations [4][6]. - CSA introduced its flight simulation training equipment, which offers a standardized training environment and has competitive advantages over similar foreign products, reflecting the company's commitment to technological innovation and digital transformation [6][7]. Group 3: Future Expectations - CSA aims to leverage the trade fair platform to enhance its influence in the Northeast aviation market and attract potential partners and customers [4][7]. - The airline is focused on expanding its membership operations and developing customer relationships, providing ticketing services, and facilitating ecological investment to enhance sales channels for exhibitors [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation transportation sector [5]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing a notable improvement in passenger load factors, with April's load factor increasing by 2.8 percentage points to 84.3% year-on-year, driven by a 7.8% increase in capacity [1][2]. - Revenue management strategies are beginning to show positive results, with domestic ticket prices increasing by 11.5% during the week of May 5-11 [1][4]. - The supply growth in the aviation sector is expected to remain low, which, combined with effective revenue management, suggests a potential for improved profitability for airlines throughout the year [1][4]. Summary by Sections Passenger Load Factors - The three major airlines reported a load factor increase of 3.1 percentage points to 84.0% in April, with domestic routes showing a 3.9 percentage point increase to 85.3% [2][10]. - Spring Airlines experienced a decline in load factor by 2.5 percentage points to 88.2%, while Juneyao Airlines showed a strong performance with a load factor increase of 2.9 percentage points to 86.2% [3][10]. Capacity and Revenue - The total available seat kilometers (ASK) for the three major airlines and Spring Airlines increased by 7.8% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in capacity [10]. - Revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) also rose by 11.5%, reflecting a strong demand recovery [10]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the supply-demand structure will continue to improve, leading to a favorable environment for revenue management and profitability enhancement during the peak summer travel season [4][21]. - The expected low supply growth, coupled with rising ticket prices, is likely to support airlines' earnings recovery [1][4]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several airlines, including China National Aviation (601111 CH), China Eastern Airlines (600115 CH), and Spring Airlines (601021 CH), with target prices set at 10.20, 5.15, and 69.10 respectively [20][21].

公司公告汇总南方航空2025年4月主要运营数据公告 2025年4月，中国南方航空股份有限公司及其所属子公司的运营数据显示：- 客运运力投入同比上升 8.83%，其中国内航线增长3.42%，国际航线增长26.71%，地区航线下降7.47%；- 旅客周转量同比上升 12.14%，其中国内航线增长6.92%，国际航线增长29.45%，地区航线下降4.82%；- 客座率达到了 85.58%，比去年同期提高了2.53个百分点；- 货运运力投入同比上升14.46%，货邮周转量同比上升 6.63%，但货邮载运率下降至51.38%，较去年同期低了3.78个百分点；- 本月引进了8架飞机，并退出了3 架飞机，截至4月底，集团共运营937架运输飞机；- 收入客公里方面，国内航线同比上升6.92%，地区 航线下降4.82%，国际航线大幅上升29.45%；- 收入吨公里方面，国内航线同比上升7.12%，地区航线下 降6.34%，国际航线上升16.22%；- 载客人数方面，国内航线同比上升7.16%，地区航线下降10.50%，国 际航线上升27.00%；- 货运及邮运量方面，国内航线同比上升7.08%，地区航线下降10.76%，国际航 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese stock market and various sectors including finance, technology, basic materials, real estate, steel, and construction materials [1][3][4][21][23]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Stock Market Dynamics**: The core driver for the rise in the Chinese stock market is the reduction in discount rates, with the risk-free rate (domestic long-term bond yield below 2%) and risk premium levels decreasing, enhancing the attractiveness of equity products [1][6][10]. - **Economic Outlook**: Although the economic situation in China is improving slowly, investor sentiment has shifted from overly pessimistic to a more balanced view, leading to a diminishing impact of valuation contraction [5][9]. - **Policy Support**: Fiscal policies are expected to be introduced around mid-year, with financial policies taking precedence as the main strategy [1][4][5]. - **Sector Recommendations**: The financial, technology, and certain basic materials sectors are favored due to their potential for growth and innovation, benefiting from lower funding costs due to reduced discount rates [1][7][8]. - **Real Estate Recovery**: The real estate market is anticipated to undergo a comprehensive recovery, with new home prices in first-tier cities beginning to rise. Developer financial recovery is expected to become evident by Q4 2025 [1][12][13]. - **Construction Materials**: The construction materials sector is showing signs of stabilization in volume and profitability, with improved corporate governance. Key companies to watch include Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Oriental Yuhong [1][16]. - **Basic Chemicals**: Recommendations include domestic demand products (compound fertilizers, civil explosives), price-increasing products (refrigerants), and leading companies in technical chemicals [1][17][18]. Additional Important Insights - **Steel Sector**: The steel sector is experiencing a demand cycle bottoming out, with a supply contraction phase beginning and raw material prices declining. Recommended companies include Baosteel and Hualin Steel [2][21][22]. - **Investor Behavior**: New investors in the Chinese stock market are adopting different investment logic, focusing on companies with perpetual growth and monopoly positions, as well as emerging technology leaders [11]. - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the market is shifting towards a more optimistic outlook, with expectations of policy support and economic recovery driving interest in equities [4][10][19]. - **Construction Sector Recovery**: The construction sector is rebounding due to improved expectations for project financing and seasonal construction activity [20][23]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of various sectors within the Chinese market.

Investment Rating - The report recommends investing in the logistics sector, specifically highlighting SF Holding as a strong candidate due to its valuation, operational resilience, and shareholder returns [2]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a year-on-year growth of 19.1% in business volume for April, while the average revenue per package decreased by 7% [2]. - The logistics sector is under pressure with domestic shipping prices for liquid chemicals declining, but there is a push towards smart logistics, with Hai Chen Co. being recommended [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a recovery with an increase in flight operations and a new visa-free policy expected to boost inbound tourism [4]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index increased by 2.1% from May 10 to May 16, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1% [12]. Express Delivery - In April, the express delivery business volume reached 163.2 billion packages, a 19.1% increase year-on-year, with revenue of 121.28 billion yuan, up 10.8% [2]. - The average revenue per package was 7.43 yuan, down 7% year-on-year [2]. Logistics - The domestic shipping price for liquid chemicals was 163 yuan/ton, down 15.1% year-on-year [3]. - Hai Chen Co. is recommended due to its focus on smart logistics and improving demand in the consumer electronics sector [3]. Aviation and Airports - The average daily flight operations reached 14,919, a 5.58% increase year-on-year, with international flights up 17.67% [4]. - The introduction of visa-free travel for five countries is expected to enhance tourism [4]. Shipping - The export container shipping index (CCFI) was 1,104.88 points, down 0.1% week-on-week and down 20.5% year-on-year [22]. - The domestic container shipping index (PDCI) was 1,163 points, down 0.8% week-on-week but up 7.8% year-on-year [33]. Road and Rail - National highway truck traffic increased by 15.15% week-on-week, with a total of 51.75 million trucks [82]. - Railway passenger turnover was 1,121.34 billion person-kilometers, down 1.31% year-on-year [79].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [2]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to see improvements in both volume and pricing, with optimistic expectations continuing to develop. High passenger load factors are anticipated to drive ticket prices upward, supported by regulatory measures from the Civil Aviation Administration [4][5]. - The shipping industry is poised for a dual increase in volume and pricing due to multiple catalysts, including replenishment demand and seasonal peaks. The report highlights the potential for significant price increases in the shipping sector [5][6]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Key companies recommended for investment include Spring Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, which are expected to show strong performance due to their operational resilience and market positioning [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of infrastructure improvements and policy changes that could benefit the transportation sector, particularly in aviation and shipping [4][5]. Operational Tracking - Data from major airlines shows a positive trend in passenger traffic and load factors, with Southern Airlines reporting a 4.91% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [14]. - The report tracks significant increases in cargo volumes across various transportation modes, indicating a robust recovery in logistics and freight services [5][6]. Aviation Data Tracking - The report provides detailed metrics on airline performance, including ASK and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), showing growth across major carriers. For instance, China Eastern Airlines reported a 10.89% increase in RPK in Q1 2025 [14]. - The average ticket price for economy class during the Dragon Boat Festival is projected to rise, reflecting a strong demand environment [4]. Shipping Data Tracking - The report notes a 9.98% week-on-week increase in the SCFI index, indicating a positive trend in shipping rates, despite a year-on-year decline of 41.31% [5]. - The report highlights the impact of tariff changes on shipping demand, particularly in the US-China trade context, which is expected to stimulate replenishment and seasonal demand [5]. Logistics Data Tracking - The report tracks significant growth in express delivery volumes, with a 15.83% year-on-year increase in the number of packages collected during early May 2025 [5]. - The logistics sector is benefiting from improved cross-border trade conditions, which are expected to enhance the performance of logistics companies [5].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The aviation engine industry in China is primarily dominated by a few key players, with a significant focus on innovation, research and development, and market expansion to enhance their competitive edge in both military and civilian sectors [1][18]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The aviation engine manufacturing segment includes four main types: turbojet, turbofan, turboshaft, and turboprop engines, largely monopolized by the China Aviation Engine Group [1]. - Key companies in the industry include Aviation Power (航发动力), Aviation Technology (航发科技), and Aviation Control (航发控制), among others [1][3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Aviation Power reported a revenue of 449.94 billion yuan in 2024, leading the industry in terms of revenue [16]. - The average gross margin for listed companies in the aviation engine sector is around 25%, with individual margins ranging from 10% to 35% [16]. - Aviation Control achieved a gross margin of 28.11% in 2024, reflecting its strong technological innovation capabilities [16]. Group 3: Business Layout and Market Position - Aviation Power and Aviation Technology have over 50% of their business focused on aviation engines, indicating a strong commitment to this sector [13]. - The regional distribution of companies shows that titanium alloy leaders are mainly located in Shaanxi, while other material representatives are concentrated in the East China region [5]. Group 4: Future Business Plans - Companies are focusing on innovation and R&D investments to expand their aviation engine business, with plans to enhance their capabilities in high-temperature alloy components and precision casting [19]. - Aviation Technology aims to participate in the development of the C919 aircraft's engines and expand its international subcontracting business [19]. Group 5: Key Financial Metrics - The largest revenue-generating company in the aluminum and high-strength steel sector is China Aluminum, with a revenue of 2370.66 billion yuan [4]. - The revenue of Aviation Power in the aviation engine sector is projected to exceed 400 billion yuan in 2024, highlighting its market leadership [4]. Group 6: Patent and Employee Information - China Aluminum and Aviation Power hold over 1000 patents, indicating a strong focus on innovation [8]. - Southern Airlines has the largest employee count among listed companies, exceeding 100,000 [8].