【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月5日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格下跌25元/吨。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.69个百分点至78.26%， PVC开工率有所增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率小幅提升，超过过去两年同期，只 是仍是偏低水平。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12月24日执行，中国台湾台塑11月份报价 下调30-40美元/吨，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中中国大陆地区上调50美元/吨 左右，四季度中国PVC出口预期减弱。不过，近期出口价格下降后，反倾销税还未执行，9月出口仍 较好，目前出口签单暂未明显走弱。上周社会库存略有减少，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。 2025年1-9月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、施 工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回落，仍处于近年同期最低水平附 近，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，50 万吨/年的万华化学8月份已经量产，40万吨/年的天津渤化8月份试生产后，预 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - As of the close on November 5th, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Polysilicon dropped over 2%, and fiberboard, asphalt, caustic soda, red dates, rebar, polypropylene, styrene, and international copper fell over 1%. On the upside, the European Line of container shipping rose over 4%, and eggs, rapeseed meal, live pigs, soybean meal, soybean No.2, soybean No.1, and pulp rose over 1%. The CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract rose 0.41%, the SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.01%, the CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract rose 0.55%, and the CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract rose 0.77%. The 2-year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract fell 0.01%, the 5-year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) main contract remained flat, the 10-year Treasury Bond Futures (T) main contract fell 0.01%, and the 30-year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) main contract fell 0.08% [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:31 on November 5th, the CSI 1000 2512 contract had an inflow of 2.188 billion yuan, the CSI 500 2512 contract had an inflow of 553 million yuan, and the SSE 50 2512 contract had an inflow of 403 million yuan. The Shanghai Gold 2512 contract had an outflow of 1.08 billion yuan, the Shanghai Copper 2512 contract had an outflow of 918 million yuan, and the Shanghai Aluminum 2512 contract had an outflow of 682 million yuan [7]. 2. Commodity Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and moved high, showing weakness during the day. The US government shutdown continued, and the copper supply was tight due to the accident in the Indonesian copper mine and the upcoming smelter maintenance. The scrap copper supply was expected to increase with the rising copper price. The downstream demand was suppressed, and the inventory was slightly increasing. The copper price lacked a clear signal [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low, moved high, and then declined during the day. The upstream production was active, with an increase in output. The downstream demand was strong, driven by the energy storage battery. The inventory was decreasing. However, the market was affected by the news of large - scale production resumption, showing a pattern of both supply and demand increase. If the resumption news was confirmed, the supply might become more abundant, and the price might be weak in the short term [11]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, which would increase the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but relieve it in the first quarter of next year. The demand peak season ended, and the market was worried about the demand. The supply - surplus pattern remained, but the export of Russian crude oil was expected to be restricted. The price was expected to fluctuate recently [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt supply was expected to decrease in November. The downstream demand was affected by funds and weather. The inventory was at a low level. The crude oil price fluctuated, and the asphalt futures price was expected to be weak and volatile [15]. PP - The PP downstream开工率 increased slightly, but the plastic weaving开工率 decreased. The supply increased with new capacity and fewer maintenance devices. The demand in the peak season was lower than expected. The price was expected to be weak and volatile [16][17]. Plastic - The plastic开工率 increased, and the downstream开工率 decreased. The supply increased with new capacity. The demand in the peak season was not as good as expected. The price was expected to be weak and volatile [18]. PVC - The PVC开工率 increased, and the downstream开工率 was low. The export was expected to weaken. The inventory was high, and the real - estate market was still adjusting. The price was expected to be weak and volatile [20]. Coking Coal - The coking coal supply tightened, and the inventory was transferred downward. The demand was weak in the short term due to environmental protection restrictions but was expected to recover. The supply - demand balance was tight [21][22]. Urea - The urea upstream factory's shipment improved, and the price rose slightly. The production was expected to be high. The downstream demand was mainly for terminal fertilizer storage. The inventory increased. The price was expected to consolidate at a low level without substantial positive news [23].

Core Viewpoint - The rubber additives industry is urged to focus on technological innovation, green low-carbon practices, digital empowerment, and open collaboration to drive sustainable development in the context of global industrial chain restructuring and China's dual carbon strategy [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Recommendations - The industry should adhere to four key principles: innovation-driven approaches, a 20% reduction in carbon emissions per unit product within five years, over 70% of output from green additives, and the establishment of an industrial internet platform for self-controllable key equipment and data [1]. - Emphasis on high-end functional and bio-based additives, increasing R&D investment, and transitioning from mass production to specialized and innovative products is essential [1][2]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Continuous improvement in green promoting agents and rapid development of high-performance anti-aging agents and vulcanizing agents are noted, with a trend towards green processing and domestic substitution of related products [2]. - The integration of artificial intelligence in the design and synthesis of rubber chemicals is highlighted, with a focus on using AI tools to complement professional knowledge in the industry [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Innovations - The industry is encouraged to adopt differentiated, high-end, and customized thinking, optimizing industrial layout and supporting overseas factory establishment [2]. - Innovations should focus on the high-performance requirements of new energy vehicle tires, natural rubber alternatives, and sustainable development [2].

Group 1: Market Performance - The chemical sector, including phosphate fertilizers, fluorochemicals, and potash fertilizers, has seen significant stock price increases, with companies like Xingfa Group rising over 5%, Duofu Du increasing over 4%, and Salt Lake Co. up over 3% [1] - The basic chemical sector has attracted substantial capital inflow, with a net inflow of over 7.7 billion yuan in a single day, ranking second among 30 sectors [2][3] - Over the past five trading days, the basic chemical sector has accumulated a total capital inflow of 18.8 billion yuan, also ranking second among the sectors [2][3] Group 2: Industry Insights - Domestic policies frequently emphasize supply-side requirements, while rising raw material costs and capacity reductions in Europe and the U.S. have impacted chemical companies [3] - China's chemical industry is expected to fill gaps in the international supply chain due to its competitive advantages in cost and technology [3] - The chemical ETF (516020) is positioned as a high-efficiency investment vehicle, covering various sub-sectors and concentrating on large-cap stocks [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - The electronic chemicals and potash fertilizer sub-sectors are expected to perform strongly, driven by demand expansion and domestic substitution in semiconductor materials [5] - OLED organic materials are projected to reach a market size of 7.4 billion yuan by 2025, supported by increased market share from domestic panel manufacturers [5] - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the sub-sector index and is expected to provide a balanced exposure to the chemical industry, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leaders [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates that the petrochemical ETF (159731) has experienced a decline of 0.84% as of November 5, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - The petrochemical ETF has seen a continuous net inflow of funds totaling 102 million yuan over the past 8 days, with its latest share count reaching 18.8 million, marking a one-year high [1] - The petrochemical ETF has achieved a net value increase of 21.93% over the past 6 months, with the highest single-month return since inception being 15.86% [3] Group 2 - The petrochemical ETF has a maximum drawdown of 6.47% over the past six months, which is the smallest drawdown among comparable funds [3] - The tracking error of the petrochemical ETF over the past year is 0.037%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the petrochemical index account for 56.05% of the index, with major companies including Wanhua Chemical and China Petroleum [3]

Core Insights - The rubber additives industry is urged to focus on technological innovation, green low-carbon practices, digital empowerment, and open collaboration to drive sustainable development [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The rubber additives sector is experiencing a shift towards high-performance, environmentally friendly products, with a focus on domestic substitution of key materials [2]. - The industry is encouraged to adopt differentiated, high-end, and customized approaches, optimizing industrial layout and supporting overseas factory establishment [2]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - New technologies, including artificial intelligence, are increasingly being integrated into the development of rubber chemicals, enhancing the design and synthesis processes [3]. - The use of molecular generation and performance prediction models is recommended to create rubber additives that meet specific requirements [3]. Group 3: Sustainability Goals - The industry aims to reduce carbon emissions per unit product by 20% within five years and increase the proportion of green additives to over 70% [1]. - There is a strong emphasis on promoting green processes and clean production technologies, as well as developing bio-based materials to improve resource utilization efficiency [1][2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance and potential dual improvement in performance and valuation [6] - The basic chemical sector has shown revenue and profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with significant profitability in sub-sectors like fluorochemicals and agricultural chemicals [4][6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, the basic chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 7.46%, while the petroleum and petrochemical industry index underperformed by 21.06% [14] - The basic chemical industry achieved a revenue of CNY 17,645.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, and a net profit of CNY 1,097.5 billion, up 6.3% [4][35] Basic Chemicals - The basic chemical sector's net profit growth rate exceeded revenue growth, with capital expenditures continuing to decline year-on-year [4][36] - In Q3 2025, the sector's revenue was CNY 6,051.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while net profit reached CNY 366.4 billion, up 16.8% [4][35] Sub-sector Analysis - In the first three quarters of 2025, sub-sectors such as pesticides, adhesives, fluorochemicals, and potassium fertilizers saw significant year-on-year net profit growth [4][37] - The top ten sub-sectors by net profit growth included pesticides (174%) and fluorochemicals, with substantial increases in profitability observed [38]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has laid a solid foundation for China's technological strength, with a projected R&D investment exceeding 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a 48% increase from 2020 [1] - A-shares listed companies are pivotal in transforming policy blueprints into industrial practices, with a total R&D investment of 1.16 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 3.88% year-on-year growth [1] - The focus on key areas such as integrated circuits, advanced materials, and biomanufacturing is expected to drive significant breakthroughs in core technologies during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2] Group 1: Technological Breakthroughs - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for decisive breakthroughs in critical core technologies across various sectors, including integrated circuits and high-end instruments [2] - Companies like Zhichun Technology are transitioning from equipment suppliers to solution partners, enhancing their competitive edge in the semiconductor industry [2] - The continuous increase in R&D investment by listed companies is crucial for enhancing their global market competitiveness [2] Group 2: Emerging and Future Industries - The development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy, aerospace, and low-altitude economy is highlighted as essential for economic growth [3] - Companies are actively engaging in the development of AMOLED display technologies, with a projected shipment area of nearly 8.8 million square meters in 2024 [3] - The rise of low-altitude economy is seen as a transition from policy-driven to technology-driven growth, with companies focusing on safety and efficiency [3] Group 3: Capital Market and Innovation Ecosystem - The capital market is undergoing reforms to support emerging industries, with companies like Yushu Technology and Blue Arrow Aerospace advancing their IPO processes [4] - The integration of innovation resources is being promoted, with companies forming innovation alliances to enhance collaboration across various sectors [5] - Artificial intelligence is identified as a key accelerator for the integration of technological and industrial innovation, with significant growth in AI applications [6]

FESHING T 2025 年 11 月 04 日 25Q3 需求淡季叠加成本抬升, 业盈利环比走弱,周期有望 -基础化工行业 2025 年三季报总结 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 相关研究 25Q3 油煤中枢环比抬升，成本端压力增加，叠加需求淡季，行业盈利环比承压，在建 工程持续回落。25Q3 传统淡季下游开工降低，整体处于去库状态，叠加能源价格底部 ● 反弹，部分周期品价差高位回落，业绩环比承压。国际贸易环境缓和，国内 "反内卷" 政策信号释放，叠加在建工程持续回落，化工供需平衡表边际修复，景气底部迎来长周 期向上。25Q3 Brent 现货均价为 69.29 美元/桶（YoY-14%，QoQ+2%），动力煤市场 用网址。2018年05月17 0020-59797 0020-596)，（1000年5月），4 润 336 亿元（YoY+10%，QoQ-5%），符合市场预期。成本压力叠加需求淡季，化工盈 利能力环比下滑，毛利率同环比分别+0.4、-0.3pct 至 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PVC market is expected to fluctuate in the near term due to factors such as a slight decrease in social inventory, rising coal prices, upcoming end of maintenance for production enterprises like Hangjin Technology, and high futures warehouse receipts [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.69 percentage points to 78.26%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate has slightly increased but is still at a low level. India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, has lowered its November quotation by $30 - $40 per ton. India announced an increase in anti - dumping duties on imported PVC from the Chinese mainland by about $50 per ton on August 14, weakening the export outlook for Chinese PVC in the fourth quarter. However, exports in September were still good, and export orders have not significantly declined. Social inventory has slightly decreased but remains high, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment phase [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2601 contract increased in position and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,655 yuan per ton, the highest was 4,695 yuan per ton, and it closed at 4,670 yuan per ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.26% and an increase in open interest of 7,046 lots to 1,243,783 lots [2] - On November 4, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China remained at 4,610 yuan per ton. The closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,670 yuan per ton, with a basis of - 60 yuan per ton, strengthening by 12 yuan per ton, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: The output of plants such as Inner Mongolia Junzheng and Shandong Xinfa has increased. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.69 percentage points to 78.26%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities include Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton - per - year plant which started mass production in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton - per - year plant which is expected to operate stably by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton - per - year plant which was put into operation in early September and is now nearly at full capacity, and Gansu Yaowang's and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 - ton - per - year plants which are operating at low loads after trial runs [4] - Demand side: The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to September 2025, national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a decrease of 5.5%. The sales volume was 630.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%. New construction area was 453.99 million square meters, a decrease of 18.9%. Construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.4%. Completion area was 311.29 million square meters, a decrease of 15.3%. As of the week of November 2, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.83% week - on - week and was near the lowest level in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of October 30, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.5% week - on - week to 1.03 million tons, 25.09% higher than the same period last year. Social inventory has slightly decreased but remains high [6]