Summary of the Expert Call on China Auto/EV Market Outlook Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Auto/EV - **Focus**: Local demand and exports outlook for 2026E Key Takeaways 1. **Declining Market Demand**: Market demand has been on a declining trend since late October 2025, primarily due to the expiration of national subsidies [1][2][3] 2. **Subsidy Standards**: There is a likelihood of higher standards for subsidies in 2026E to ensure healthy growth, despite anticipated impacts on demand [1][2] 3. **Export Focus**: Exports are expected to become a key focus for Chinese OEMs to mitigate the effects of a potentially muted local market [1][2][10] 4. **Battery and Technology Trends**: The trend towards larger batteries and increased intellectualization in vehicles will be significant as the industry aims for high-quality growth [1][11] Market Dynamics 1. **Order Trends**: Orders have been declining since mid-late October 2025, with a notable slump in November as customers await national subsidies [3][4] 2. **OEM Performance**: Weekly orders for major OEMs have decreased, with BYD at less than 70k units and Geely at less than 30k units for its Galaxy brand [4] 3. **EV Penetration Rate**: The discount ratio for ICE car models is decreasing, leading to a record-high monthly EV penetration rate, expected to exceed 60% in November 2025 [5] Policy Outlook 1. **Tightening Policies**: A tightening policy is anticipated for 2026, with potential continuation of trade-in/scrapping policies until the end of 2027E [6][8] 2. **Subsidy Adjustments**: Future trade-in subsidies may be based on a percentage of the average selling price (ASP) of vehicles, potentially reducing discounts for lower-end models [6][8] Competitive Landscape 1. **Impact of EV Tax Exemption**: The reduction of the EV purchase tax exemption in 2026 may slightly benefit ICE models, while upgraded hybrid cars could challenge low-end PHEV models [9] 2. **Luxury Brand Challenges**: Luxury brands are facing significant challenges, with many BMW dealerships closing and shifting focus towards NEV players [9] Export Strategies 1. **Government Support for Exports**: The Chinese government is encouraging exports, with many OEMs expanding their international presence [10] 2. **Global Market Expansion**: BYD, Chery, and Geely have established over 1,000 shops in overseas markets, while Leapmotor and XPENG are also increasing their international footprint [10] Future Trends 1. **Technological Advancements**: The focus will shift from price wars to technology and platform upgrades, with large-size batteries and advanced intelligent features becoming essential for competitiveness [11] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the expert call regarding the future of the China auto market, highlighting both challenges and opportunities as the industry navigates through changing demand dynamics and policy landscapes.

如今最炙手可热的两个赛道是互联网和汽车，工信部数据显示，2024 年中国互联网行业整体市场规模达18.7万亿元，同比增长9.3%，高于同期GDP的名 义增长率。贝哲斯咨询数据显示2024年汽车行业规模达15.3万亿元，增速均高于同期GDP增速。 两个行业总市场规模也高达34万亿元，占同期全国GDP的25.2%。同时互联网行业从业人员约1600万，汽车行业从业人员约2500万，两者总从业人员超过 4000万，全国总就业人口为7.3亿，就业占比仅占1/20，却创造了全国1/4的GDP，可见这两个行业的重要性。 谁能想到，互联网行业和造车新势力的很多高管，竟然都和阿里巴巴、吉利存在千丝万缕关联。这些年，阿里巴巴走出了不少商界精英，有媒体梳理，从 阿里巴巴离职创业成功的十位大佬分别是：滴滴出行创始人程维、小鹏汽车创始人何小鹏、拼多多幕后推手孙彤宇、美团地推缔造者干嘉伟、同程旅游创 始人吴志祥、滴普科技创始人赵杰辉、壹网壹创董事长林振宇、大众点评COO吕广渝、满帮集团董事长张晖、影刀创始人金礼剑。 而吉利更是成为造车新势力挖角重灾区，2025年10月尾声，李书福一句"新势力全靠挖我人活着"，瞬间引爆汽车圈。这番话并非空 ...

New Car Launches - Dongfeng Nissan N6 launched with a limited-time price of 91,900 to 121,900 yuan, featuring a hybrid system with a 75kW engine and a 155kW motor, offering a pure electric range of 170-180 km [1][3][9] - New Blue Energy E5 Plus launched at a limited-time price of 119,800 yuan, equipped with a 70kW engine and a 160kW motor, providing a pure electric range of 230 km [1][12][17] - Buick Zhijing Shijia launched with a price range of 439,900 to 469,900 yuan, featuring a 132kW engine and a dual-motor system, offering a pure electric range of 224 km [1][20][25] Company Dynamics - Xiaomi Auto has surpassed 500,000 cumulative deliveries, achieving its annual target ahead of schedule [1][28][29] - XPeng Motors collaborates with Huawei to launch a next-generation range extender generator with over 92% efficiency [1][32][35] - Changan Automobile is set to roll out its 30 millionth vehicle, becoming the first Chinese brand to reach this milestone [1][36][40] Sales Performance - BYD sold 474,921 passenger vehicles in November, maintaining a leading position in the new energy sector [1][71][73] - Changan Automobile's November sales reached 283,000 units, with over 125,000 in new energy vehicles [1][76][79] - SAIC-GM-Wuling achieved 118,726 new energy vehicle sales in November, marking three consecutive months of over 100,000 units sold [1][81] - Chery's new energy vehicle sales reached 116,794 units in November, continuing its growth trend [1][82][86] - Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 81,864 units in November, benefiting from increased production capacity [1][87][90] - Leap Motor delivered 70,327 units in November, showing strong market performance [1][91][92] - Great Wall Motors sold 40,113 new energy vehicles in November, reflecting a significant growth in its transition to new energy [1][95][96] - XPeng Motors delivered 36,728 units in November, with a year-to-date growth of 156% [1][98][99] - NIO delivered 36,275 units in November, with a notable increase in sales [1][100][106] - Li Auto delivered 33,181 units in November, maintaining a positive outlook despite market pressures [1][107][109] - Deep Blue Automotive delivered 33,060 units in November, with strong performance from its S05 model [1][111][113] - BAIC New Energy sold 32,328 units in November, with a significant year-on-year increase [1][114][115] - Lantu Automotive delivered 20,005 units in November, marking a strong sales milestone [1][116][118] - FAW Bestune sold 15,793 new energy vehicles in November, with a focus on young consumers [1][119][123] - Avita delivered 14,057 units in November, achieving a historical high [1][124][125] - Zhiji delivered 13,577 units in November, with a focus on expanding its product line [1][126][128] - Jishi Automotive delivered 1,452 units in November, showing steady growth in international markets [1][129][132] Industry News - A new national standard for steer-by-wire technology has been released, removing mandatory mechanical connections [2][133][135] - Global penetration of new energy vehicles is on the rise, projected to reach 25.2% by Q4 2025 [2][138][140] - South Korea's automotive exports have declined for the first time in recent years, with a forecasted drop in total exports [2][143][145]

Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector rose by 1.4% from December 1 to December 7, outperforming the CSI 300 index which increased by 0.5% [1] - Within the automotive sub-sectors, commercial passenger vehicles, automotive parts, motorcycles and others, automotive services, commercial freight vehicles, and passenger vehicles saw increases of 4.7%, 1.9%, 1.9%, 0.7%, 0.6%, and 0.2% respectively [1] Investment Recommendations - Recommended core stocks include Geely Automobile, Xpeng Motors, BYD, Bertel, Top Group, New Spring Co., Hu Guang Co., and Chunfeng Power [2][9] - For passenger vehicles, focus on quality autonomous brands accelerating in intelligence and globalization, recommending Geely, Xpeng, BYD, Xiaomi Group, and others [5][11] - In the parts sector, recommended companies include Bertel, Horizon Robotics, and others focusing on intelligent driving and smart cockpits [5][12] Robotics Industry Insights - The Trump administration is shifting focus to accelerate the robotics industry, with plans for administrative orders and the establishment of a robotics task force [3] - Tesla's production progress and technology iterations remain a core focus, with domestic robotics manufacturers like Yushutech expected to enter the IPO stage soon [3][16] - Investment in robotics is seen as a catalyst for growth, with a focus on hardware segments showing significant marginal changes [3][16] Strategic Investments - China FAW Group completed a strategic investment of over 3.6 billion yuan in Shenzhen Zhuoyu Technology, becoming its second-largest shareholder, aimed at enhancing its competitive edge in intelligent driving [4][10] - The investment is part of a dual-track strategy focusing on core technology self-research and ecosystem co-construction [4][10] Motorcycle Market Trends - The large-displacement motorcycle market is expanding rapidly, with significant sales growth in the 500cc to 800cc segment, showing a year-on-year increase of 128.7% [22][24] - Recommended leading companies in this segment include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [22][24] Heavy Truck Market Dynamics - The heavy truck market saw sales of approximately 93,000 units in October 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 40% [25][26] - The expansion of the vehicle replacement subsidy policy is expected to stimulate demand for new purchases [25][26] Tire Industry Outlook - The tire industry is experiencing a global expansion, with a focus on smart manufacturing capabilities and product structure optimization [27][28] - Recommended companies in the tire sector include Sailun Tire and Senki Lin [29]

2025 年 12 月 07 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn 曹操出行发布 [Table_Title] Robotaxi 战略目标，2025 年前 11 个月汽车以旧换新超 1120 万辆 ——汽车行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/12/05 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 汽车 | -2.0% | -1.2% | 17.4% | | 沪深 300 | -0.9% | 2.8% | 16.9% | 相关报告 《汽车行业周报：阿维塔递交港股 IPO 申请，"蔚 小理"相继披露三季度财报（推荐）*汽车*戴畅》 ——2025-12-01 《汽车行业周报：广州车展开幕，小鹏 X9 增程版/ 享界 S9 新款上市，华为举办乾崑大会（推荐）* 汽车*戴畅》——2025-11-24 《汽车行业周报：10 月乘用车批发同比增 7.5%， 上汽智己 LS9 上市（推荐）*汽车*戴畅》—— 2025-11-18 年底多家车企发布购车 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车行业周报（20251201-20251207） 行业研究 汽车 2025 年 12 月 07 日 推荐（维持） 板块触底有望提前，关注 26 年 beta 反弹机会 华创证券研究所 | 证券分析师：张程航 | 证券分析师：夏凉 | 证券分析师：李昊岚 | 联系人：张睿希 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电话：021-20572543 | 电话：021-20572532 | 邮箱：lihaolan@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：zhangruixi@hcyjs.com | | 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：xialiang@hcyjs.com | 执业编号：S0360524010003 | | | 执业编号：S0360519070003 | 执业编号：S0360522030001 | | | 本周我们更新了明年年度策略，相较于前几年，2026 年确实市场一致预期相对较高，我 们观点简言之：1）销量展望没那么悲观，所以会有 beta 反弹机会；2）整车投资依然以 个股为主，零部件以新产业为主。 4Q 汽车基本面低于预期，这 ...

月度降价状态跟踪 智通财经APP获悉，12月7日，崔东树发文称，2025年乘用车行业促销与降级均回归理性，市场秩序明显改善。2025年1-11月乘用车降价规模173款，较同 期少45款；单11月降价规模19款，较同期少7款。新能源汽车方面，1-11月份，新能源车新车降价车型均价20.4万元的降价力度算术平均达到2.4万元，降 价力度达到11.7%。国家以旧换新政策效果突出，市场销量增长，内卷降价现象明显减弱，行业运行压力改善。 降价分析主要关注新车推出而突破前期价格下限的情况，也就是较隐蔽的降价行为，这里主要定义两年内的降价。而有些新车前两年开始上市很便宜，随 后因碳酸锂价格而宣布涨价，然后现在宣布降价，虽然没有突破上市时的底价，但为了体现降价的现象，因此此次分析中也算降价。 由于部分按动力细分的车型在年内有多次的价格调整行动，因此按照非重复计算的方式，车型数不是简单累加，而是合并了重复车型。 从降价节奏来看，2023年的降价总体较多， 2024年的降价在3-4月份达到了超强的程度。今年的部分车企2季度的阶段性组合促销，其一口价的价格包含 补贴等因素，没有明确宣布降低到新的价格，因此目前只能按照促销处理，没有 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Insights - The Trump administration is placing significant emphasis on the robotics industry, which is expected to experience synchronized development both domestically and internationally. This reflects a growing policy support level for humanoid robots, indicating their potential as a core component of U.S. manufacturing and technological competitiveness [2][12] - The report suggests that companies within the automotive supply chain that can integrate with Tesla and Figure's robotics ecosystem are likely to benefit. It recommends continued attention to humanoid robotics, T-chain, liquid cooling supply chains, Huawei's supply chain, and companies leading in intelligent driving technology [3][14] - November saw a mixed performance in passenger vehicle sales, with some new energy vehicle brands like Hongmeng Zhixing and Xiaopeng maintaining strong year-on-year growth. Overall, the report anticipates limited overdraw in domestic passenger vehicle sales by year-end [14][16] Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - In November, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.302 million units, a year-on-year increase of 19%, while retail sales were 879,000 units, showing a 2% increase year-on-year [16] - Cumulative wholesale sales for the year reached 26.766 million units, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [16] Market Trends - The automotive sector overall saw a 1.3% increase, with sub-sectors like motorcycles and commercial vehicles performing particularly well [24][28] - Notable companies such as BYD and SAIC Motor reported varied performance in November, with BYD's sales down by 5.3% year-on-year, while SAIC's sales decreased by 3.7% [36][40] Key Company Announcements - BYD reported sales of 480,200 units in November, while Geely's sales increased by 24.1% year-on-year [36][37] - Changan Automobile and Great Wall Motors also reported positive sales growth, with Changan's sales up by 2.5% and Great Wall's by 4.6% [39][41] Industry Dynamics - The report highlights that over 11 months, more than 11.2 million vehicles were replaced through trade-in programs, contributing significantly to related sales [54] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology encourages leading Chinese companies in sectors like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles to expand internationally [56]

Event Announcement - The 2025 (10th) Starting Point Lithium Battery Industry Annual Conference and Lithium Battery Golden Ding Award Ceremony will be held on December 18-19, 2025, in Shenzhen, with an expected offline attendance of over 1,200 and online viewership of 30,000 [2] Salary Adjustment - CATL announced a salary increase of 150 RMB for employees at levels 1-6 starting January 1, 2026, to attract and retain talent and improve work efficiency and product quality [4] LG Chem's Share Sale - LG Chem plans to sell over 10% of its stake in LG Energy, aiming to alleviate financial pressure and optimize its financial structure, with a total value of 20 trillion KRW [5] Funding for CATL's Innovation Lab - CATL's innovation lab received a total of 176 million RMB in subsidies for construction and operation from the Fujian provincial government, marking it as the first government-supported innovation lab relying on a private enterprise [6] BYD's New Energy Project in Hubei - BYD's Fudi Battery Company signed a contract for a new energy project in Hubei, enhancing its presence in the central region and contributing to the local lithium battery industry [7] Far East Battery's Contract Growth - Far East announced a significant increase in contracts over 10 million RMB, totaling 2.383 billion RMB in November, a year-on-year increase of 33.04% [8] CATL's Investment in Tianhua New Energy - CATL acquired a 12.95% stake in Tianhua New Energy for 2.635 billion RMB, becoming the second-largest shareholder [9] CATL's Large Capacity Energy Cell Shipment - CATL completed the shipment of 2 GWh of its 587Ah large capacity energy cells, marking the entry into large-scale commercial use [11] Guoxuan's Battery Project Operation - Guoxuan's 20 GWh battery project in Yichun officially commenced full operations, representing a significant investment in the region [12] LG Energy's Production Expansion - LG Energy plans to expand its energy storage battery production capacity to 50 GWh in response to increasing demand in North America [13] EVE Energy's Collaboration with China Gas - EVE Energy signed a cooperation agreement with China Gas to provide energy assurance for projects in China and Malaysia, including a 1 GWh order for energy storage products [14] New Energy Project by Xinneng An - Xinneng An's second-phase project in Xiamen is set to invest 5.7 billion RMB, with a planned capacity of 9 GWh [15] Funeng Technology's Battery Order - Funeng Technology received an order exceeding 10 GWh for its lithium iron phosphate battery system from GAC Aion for their European models [16] CATL's Zero-Carbon Shipping Solution - CATL launched a zero-carbon shipping and smart port solution, addressing challenges in electric shipping technology [17] Ganfeng Lithium's Financing - Ganfeng Lithium secured 1 billion RMB in C-round financing to support its expansion into downstream battery production [18][19] Haicheng Energy's 120 GWh Order - Haicheng Energy signed a contract to supply at least 120 GWh of energy storage products to CRRC Zhuzhou Institute from 2026 to 2030 [20][21] Nord's Supply Agreement with Zhongchuang Innovation - Nord's subsidiary signed a three-year supply agreement to provide 37,300 tons of copper foil to Zhongchuang Innovation from 2026 to 2028 [23] Phosphate Iron Project in Xiangyang - A new 200,000-ton phosphate iron project is set to be established in Xiangyang, with a total investment of 620 million RMB [24] Long-term Agreement for Lithium Iron Phosphate - Longpan Technology signed a long-term procurement agreement with Sunwoda for 10.68 million tons of lithium iron phosphate materials, valued at approximately 4.5 to 5.5 billion RMB [25] Copper Foil Industry Recovery - The copper foil industry is experiencing a recovery, with Nord as a key player securing multiple long-term contracts [26] Hunan Salt Industry's Investment in Sunwoda - Hunan Salt Industry Group is participating in the restructuring of Sunwoda Group, aiming to enhance its presence in the new energy materials sector [27][28] Cobalt Export Ban in Congo - Despite the expiration of the cobalt export ban in Congo, exports have not yet resumed due to regulatory delays [29][30][31] Price Increase for Phosphate Iron Lithium - The price of phosphate iron lithium has increased by approximately 20% since the beginning of the year, with several companies announcing price hikes [32] BYD's Phosphate Iron Lithium Processing Agreement - BYD's subsidiary signed a processing agreement for 80,000 tons of phosphate iron lithium with Qinghai Fudi [33] Separator Price Increase - Xingyuan Material announced a 30% price increase for its wet separator products, signaling a shift in the supply-demand balance in the industry [34] Solid-State Battery Production Line - MannsTech launched a new solid-state battery production line, enhancing its capabilities in the battery manufacturing sector [36] Nakanor's Equipment Shipment - Nakanor completed the shipment of over 80 sets of rolling and cutting equipment for a major overseas battery production facility [37] Li Yuanheng's Solid-State Battery Production Line - Li Yuanheng has successfully delivered a pilot production line for solid-state batteries, addressing key manufacturing challenges [38] Waste Lithium Battery Recycling Projects - Multiple waste lithium battery recycling projects are being initiated across various regions, reflecting the industry's focus on sustainable practices [40][41][42][43] New Energy Battery Project by Leap Motor - A new joint venture battery project by Leap Motor and Zhongchuang Innovation has commenced, with an expected annual output value exceeding 10 billion RMB [45] Joint Venture between Geely and SK On - Geely and SK On are discussing the establishment of a joint venture to expand their collaboration in battery supply for electric vehicles [46] Changan's Electric Vehicle Launch in Europe - Changan plans to launch its electric vehicle brands Avatr and Nevo in Europe within the next two years [47] Xiaomi's SU7 Satisfaction Ranking - Xiaomi's SU7 has been ranked first in user satisfaction among mid-large electric sedans in China for the second consecutive year [48] New Car Release by Wuliangye's Subsidiary - Wuliangye's subsidiary launched a new car model with promotional offers linked to its liquor products [49]

证券研究报告 汽车周观点： 曹操出行Robotaxi战略升级，继续看好汽车板块 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2025年12月7日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心结论 注：若无特殊说明，"本周"均代表2025.12.1-2025.12.7 2 ◼ 本周细分板块涨跌幅排序：SW商用载客车(4.5%) >SW汽车零部件(1.8%) >SW汽车 （1.4%） >SＷ商用载货车(0.5%) >SW乘用车（0.2%) 。本周已覆盖标的中国重汽 H、新泉股份、拓普集团、星宇股份、沪光股份涨幅前五。 （ ◼ 本周团队研究成果：外发小鹏汽车深度报告，外发宇通客车11月销量点评。 ◼ 本周行业核心变化：1）曹操出行举行Robotaxi战略升级发布会，提出"十年百城千 亿"战略目标，并发布首个未来城市交通枢纽"绿色智能通行岛"；2）拓普集团正 推进H股上市；3）德赛西威拟成立惠州市川行致远科技有限公司开展Robovan业务； 4）文远知行一段式端到端ADAS方案问鼎中国智驾大赛。 板块最新观点 3 ◼ Q4重视AI智能车投资机会 ◼ 本 ...