Core Viewpoint - The majority of brokerages believe that despite recent volatility in the A-share market, market sentiment has been sufficiently released, and the adjustment phase may be nearing its end. The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to bring positive calendar effects, making it a good opportunity to hold stocks during the holiday [1][10][12]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Brokerages suggest that the current external disturbances have not significantly impacted China's industrial fundamentals, and the market's emotional release indicates that the adjustment is largely complete. A spring market rally is anticipated post-Spring Festival, making it advisable to hold stocks during the holiday [1][10][13]. - The sentiment in the market is expected to improve due to the "Spring Festival effect" and increasing event catalysts, which could create a favorable environment for equity assets [14][13]. - Historical data shows that A-shares tend to rise around the Spring Festival, and with manageable external risks, the current market remains in a bullish atmosphere, suggesting that holding stocks during the holiday may be a relatively better strategy [12][10]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Sector Focus - Investment strategies should focus on maintaining a base in "resources + traditional manufacturing," while also increasing allocations in consumer and real estate chains. There is a recommendation to look for opportunities in the technology sector, particularly in AI-related industries [2][4][18]. - The focus on high-growth technology sectors, such as AI computing, robotics, and semiconductors, is emphasized as a key investment direction, alongside cyclical commodities that are expected to see price increases [18][5]. - The market is expected to experience a rotation, with sectors like TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) likely to perform better post-holiday, as historical trends indicate a recovery in risk appetite after the Spring Festival [17][11].

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market showed a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.25% closing at 4065.58 points, while the North Star 50 Index increased by 0.90% to 1520.89 points [9][10] - The overall market saw a total trading volume of 21,634.75 billion, a decrease of 308.05 billion from the previous trading day [10] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - In January 2026, the number of new margin trading accounts reached 190,500, a year-on-year increase of 157% [30][31] - The micro-short drama market in China is projected to exceed 100 billion yuan in 2025, doubling from 2024 [34] - The average working hours for major engineering machinery products in January 2026 increased by 23.9% year-on-year [41] Group 3: Company Updates - China Merchants Securities (600999.SH) outlined its business development strategy focusing on resource integration and enhancing competitiveness [46][47] - KAIT (920978.BJ) entered a strategic partnership with a humanoid robot team to develop advanced control systems [49] - Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ) reported a January sales volume of 7.009 million pigs, a year-on-year increase of 2.73% [51][52] - Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ) saw an 18% year-on-year increase in chicken sales for January [53]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 国投瑞银中证全指公用事业交易型开放式指数 证券投资基金上市交易公告书提示性公告 国投瑞银基金管理有限公司（以下简称"本公司"）董事会及董事保证基金上市交易公告书所载资料不存 在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 国投瑞银中证全指公用事业交易型开放式指数证券投资基金（场内简称：公用事业ETF国投瑞银，基金 代码：159159）将于2026年2月12日开始在深圳证券交易所上市交易。上市交易公告书全文于2026年2月 9日在本公司网站（www.ubssdic.com）和中国证监会基金电子披露网站（http://eid.csrc.gov.cn/fund）披 露，供投资者查阅。如有疑问可拨打本公司客服电话（400-880-6868）咨询。 本基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证本基金一定盈利，也不 保证最低收益。请充分了解本基金的风险收益特征，审慎做出投资决定。 特此公告。 国投瑞银基金管理有限公司 2026年2月9日 国投瑞银中证同业存单AAA指数7天持有期证券 投资基金调整大额申购（ ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 1.公告基本信息 ■ 2.日常申购、赎回业务的办理时间 本基金对每份基金份额设置3个月的最短持有期。对于每份基金份额，最短持有期起始日指基金合同生 效日（对认购份额而言）或该基金份额申购申请确认日（对申购份额而言）；最短持有期到期日指该基 金份额最短持有期起始日起3个月后的对应日。如无此对应日期或该对应日为非工作日，则顺延至下一 工作日。在每份基金份额的最短持有期到期日前（不含当日），基金份额持有人不能对该基金份额提出 赎回申请；每份基金份额的最短持有期到期日起（含当日），基金份额持有人可对该基金份额提出赎回 申请。因不可抗力或基金合同约定的其他情形致使基金管理人无法在该基金份额的最短持有期到期日开 放办理该基金份额的赎回业务的，该基金份额的最短持有期到期日顺延至不可抗力或基金合同约定的其 他情形的影响因素消除之日起的下一个工作日。 投资人在开放日办理基金份额的申购和赎回，具体办理时间为上海证券交易所、深圳证券交易所的正常 交易日的交易时间（若本基金参与港股通交易且该日为非港股通交易日或不满足港股通在规定时间内结 算要求，则基金管理人可根据实际情况决定本基金是 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2026 年 2 月 8 日 春节海外：机会更多，还是风险更大？ ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 国内方面，春节错位，预计 1 月 CPI 同比 0.2%；1 月有色、能化接连上涨， 预计 PPI 环比增长 0.3%，对应 PPI 同比-1.2%。 海外方面，1）沃什提名美联储主席恐陷入程序僵局。2）高市或即将摆脱联合 执政的掣肘，其反对过早加息、主张弱日元，实则利好全球流动性。 资产方面，1）近期特朗普强调提名沃什因其支持降息，进而，美股进一步重 挫风险有限。预计中选前，全球不太会出现因日本套息交易反转及美联储政策 收紧的流动性冲击，3-9 月地方中选密集期，美股大概率中枢上移。2）国内科 技等方向需观察美股走势，风险有限，但机会或在 Q2；PPI 或于 Q2 提前转 正，叠加"十五五"碳减排助力，通胀方向资产均将受益，目前仍是"交易科 技、重视通胀、关注地产消费"思路。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《PMI 淡季回落———2026 年 1 月 PMI 点评》2026-02-01 2、《如何看 2025 年财政数据 与 2026 年一季度财政节奏？》 2026-01-31 3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4][48]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in new account openings, with 4.9158 million new accounts in January 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 213% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 89% [4]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing shift of funds from traditional banks to capital markets and non-bank financial institutions, driven by the expiration of 70 trillion yuan in one-year or longer deposits and a decline in net interest margins [4]. - The report discusses the need for China's financial sector to transition from being large to strong, focusing on mergers and acquisitions as a core growth engine for brokerages [4]. - The report notes that the international business landscape for brokerages is expanding due to the deepening process of RMB internationalization and the demand for cross-border wealth management and investment banking services [4]. - The report mentions that Ping An Group has increased its stake in China Life (H) multiple times, reflecting a strong confidence in the insurance sector [4][12]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,643.60 with a decline of 1.33%, while the non-bank index closed at 2,030.92 with a decline of 0.60% [8]. - The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial indices reported declines of 0.65%, 0.71%, and an increase of 0.43%, respectively [8]. Non-Bank Industry News and Key Announcements - The report outlines regulatory updates regarding virtual currencies and asset tokenization, indicating a tightening of oversight in these areas [10]. - Ping An Group's recent acquisitions of shares in China Life (H) are detailed, showcasing a strategic investment approach [12]. - Huatai Securities plans to issue 10 billion HKD in zero-coupon convertible bonds to support overseas business development [14]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brokerages with strong comprehensive capabilities, recommending stocks such as Guotai Junan A+H, GF Securities A+H, and CITIC Securities A+H [4]. - For insurance, the report recommends China Life (H), New China Life, Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, and China Property & Casualty Insurance, highlighting the systemic value reassessment opportunities in the insurance sector [4].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Growth-Value Rotation Model - **Model Name**: Growth-Value Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model suggests overweighting growth stocks based on the current market environment and historical data analysis[4] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model evaluates the macroeconomic environment, valuation signals, short-term momentum signals, style breadth signals, and style congestion signals to determine the allocation between growth and value stocks[22] - The model uses the following signals: - Dynamic macro signal: 0% - Valuation reversion signal: 100% - Short-term momentum signal: 0% - Style breadth signal: 100% - Style congestion signal: 100%[23] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown a significant annualized return of 14.47% since 2011, with an annualized excess return of 7.90% over the benchmark[22] - **Model Test Results**: - Annualized return: 14.47% - Annualized volatility: 21.44% - Maximum drawdown: 40.08% - Sharpe ratio: 0.64 - Return-drawdown ratio: 0.36[23] 2. Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Rotation Model - **Model Name**: Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model suggests overweighting large-cap stocks based on liquidity conditions and market trends[4] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses 11 effective rotation indicators to construct a comprehensive signal for rotating between small-cap and large-cap stocks[25] - The model evaluates the following indicators: - A-share Dragon Tiger List buying intensity: 0% - R007: 0% - Financing buy balance change: 0% - Thematic investment trading sentiment: 0% - Grade spread: 100% - Option volatility risk premium: 100% - Beta dispersion: 0% - PB differentiation: 0% - Block trading discount/premium rate: 100% - CSI 1000 MACD (10,20,10): 0% - CSI 1000 trading volume: 0%[27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has consistently generated positive excess returns annually since 2014[26] - **Model Test Results**: - Annualized return: 20.61% - Annualized excess return: 13.18% - Maximum drawdown: 40.70% - Average turnover interval (trading days): 20 - Win rate (by trade): 50.00%[27] Model Backtest Results Growth-Value Rotation Model - Annualized return: 14.47% - Annualized volatility: 21.44% - Maximum drawdown: 40.08% - Sharpe ratio: 0.64 - Return-drawdown ratio: 0.36[23] Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Rotation Model - Annualized return: 20.61% - Annualized excess return: 13.18% - Maximum drawdown: 40.70% - Average turnover interval (trading days): 20 - Win rate (by trade): 50.00%[27]

北交所策略专题报告 2026 年 02 月 08 日 2025 北交所券商执业全景：特色券商优势巩固，头部券商逐渐跃居前列 ——北交所策略专题报告 北交所研究团队 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 专题：2025 年格局重塑：头部券商成为执业主力军，特色券商优势巩固 2026 年 1 月 30 日北京证券交易所、全国股转公司根据对证券公司 2025 年的执 业质量情况进行了评价。2025 年度，115 家证券公司中，14 家证券公司子公司 纳入其母公司合并评价，由高到低分别被评为一、二、三、四档，其中，一档占 比 19.80%；二档占比 39.60%；三档占比 19.80%；四档占比 20.79%。从一档券 商变化来看，北交所市场券商执业格局"大洗牌"，头部券商逐渐跃居前列。2025 年排名前十名分别为国泰海通、华泰证券、招商证券、申万宏源、中信证券、国 金证券、东吴证券、开源证券、中信建投、平安证券，其中华泰证券、中信证券、 平安证券分别由 2024 年的第二档跃升为第一档。从专业质量总分变化来看，头 部券商进步明显。2025 年排名前五名分别为 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese capital market has already completed the "de-virtualization" pricing, and there is no need to worry about short-term market fluctuations [1][15] - Recent overseas market risk preferences and liquidity have shown significant changes, with a growing urgency in the US and Europe to focus on real economy and strategic security [1][15] - The AI-driven disruptive innovation is breaking traditional monopolies, leading to increased anxiety in the software sector, which is currently under pressure [1][15] Group 2 - Short-term market fluctuations are expected, but the spring market is still anticipated to be promising, with potential positive news in the coming months [2][16] - Historical trends indicate that the market usually experiences a temporary correction before the Spring Festival, but investors are advised to hold stocks during this period [2][16] - The market is likely to see a rebound in trading activity after the Spring Festival, supported by high-frequency data and industry hot topics [2][16] Group 3 - The best opportunities in the current market are in new technology sectors, particularly focusing on AI and related industries, with a rebound expected around the Spring Festival [3][17] - Non-bank financials are also anticipated to rebound as redemption pressures on broad-based ETFs decrease [3][17] - Mid-term investment strategies should focus on sectors with strong growth potential, including technology and cyclical industries [3][17] Group 4 - The market is currently in a wide-ranging adjustment phase, with trading activity declining as the Spring Festival approaches [4][18] - There is an ongoing style shift in the market, with a focus on balancing growth and value styles as new market leaders emerge [4][18] - The overall sentiment remains positive for a "systematic slow bull" market, with a focus on sectors like securities, social services, and construction materials [4][18] Group 5 - Short-term strategies should focus on low-crowding technology opportunities, while mid-term strategies should gradually shift towards high-dividend, low-valuation sectors [6][19] - Key sectors for mid-term investment include banks, food and beverage, and transportation, which are expected to provide stable cash flows and dividends [6][19] - Caution is advised for sectors closely tied to consumption but with limited profit elasticity [6][19] Group 6 - The current market is characterized by a "pre-holiday risk aversion" trend, with a shift in funds from high-valuation technology and cyclical sectors to value and consumer sectors [9][24] - Defensive sectors like banks and food and beverage are performing well, while previously strong sectors like computing hardware and metals are experiencing corrections [9][24] - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern, with a balanced allocation strategy recommended [9][24] Group 7 - The spring market is not over, and risks during the Spring Festival are expected to be limited, with potential improvements in economic and profit expectations [10][25] - The liquidity environment is likely to remain loose, with expectations of increased capital inflow post-holiday [10][25] - The market is anticipated to see a recovery in real estate sales during the Spring Festival, supported by favorable policies [10][25]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuous influx of incremental funds into the market, highlighting investment opportunities in the non-bank financial sector [1][7] - The industry rating remains at "Buy," indicating a positive outlook for the sector [2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 6, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4065.58 points, down 1.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.11% [12] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.41 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.38% decrease [7] Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary Insurance Sector - The performance of listed insurance companies is expected to continue high growth, with a marginal improvement in long-term interest rate spreads [18] - China Ping An Group increased its stake in China Life H shares, indicating positive industry trends [18] - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to show better-than-expected performance for some insurance companies due to a low base in the first half of 2025 [18] Securities Sector - A significant increase in new accounts was observed in January 2026, with 491.58 million new A-share accounts opened, a 213% year-on-year increase [19] - The balance of margin trading reached a historical high, providing strong support for interest income in the securities industry [22] - The Hong Kong IPO market is active, with 384 companies applying for listings as of February 6, 2026, and a daily trading volume of 2202 billion yuan in January, a 94% year-on-year increase [24][28] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific stocks within the insurance sector, including China Ping An (A/H), China Life (A/H), and New China Life (A/H) [18] - In the securities sector, recommended stocks include Guotai Junan (AH), CICC (H), and Huatai Securities (AH) due to their potential for performance improvement [7][18]