2026.02. 14 本文字数：1973，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 本周，市场对AI开支过高的担忧仍然挥之不去。投资者正强烈抵制科技巨头激进的人工智能投入计 划，导致 "七巨头"股价大幅下挫。亚马逊股价连续下挫，华尔街担忧大规模投入将使亚马逊在2026 年成为云业务巨头中首个出现自由现金流为负的公司。 首家自由现金流为负的云巨头？ 自上周发布财报以来，亚马逊股价已经连跌九个交易日，创2006年以来最长纪录，正式跌入技术性 熊市，即从重要高点下跌20%及以上。周五该股进一步失守200美元，较11月3日254美元的历史收 盘价下跌近23%。 亚马逊由此成为继微软之后，第二家跌入熊市的 "七大科技巨头"成员。微软股价在1月29日步入熊 市，此前一天该公司公布的Azure云业务增速不及市场预期。截至本周收盘，微软股价较10月28日 542.07美元的历史收盘价下跌超过1/4。 亚马逊规模庞大的人工智能投入计划并未获得投资者认可。尽管投资者对亚马逊AI战略与云业务增 长节奏不匹配的质疑从去年就已出现，但该公司仍加倍押注这一方向。在四大云服务巨头中，亚马 逊、微软、Meta与谷歌2026年AI资本 ...

2026.02.14 本文字数：1770，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 周五美股涨跌互现，通胀数据降温支撑了市场对美联储降息的预期，科技股仍然面临AI 相关担忧引发 的剧烈波动。截至收盘，道指涨48.95点，涨幅0.10%，报49500.93点，纳指跌0.22%，报22546.67点，标 普500指数涨0.05%，报6836.17点。 本周道指累计下跌1.28%，纳指跌1.49%，标普500指数跌1.45%。 标普500指数本周录得去年11月以来最大单周跌幅，道琼斯工业平均指数也将迎来去年11月以来最深周 度跌幅。芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）早盘一度触及 22.40 点高位，突破20的关键心理关口。 | 道琼斯工业平均 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | | 49500.93 22546.67 | 6836.17 | | +48.95 +0.10% -50.48 -0.22% +3.41 +0.05% | | 【热门股表现】 明星科技股跌多涨少。特斯拉涨0.09%，微软跌0.13%，亚马逊跌0.41%，日线九连阴创近20年最差纪 录，谷歌，Meta跌超1%，英伟 ...

作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 周五美股涨跌互现，通胀数据降温支撑了市场对美联储降息的预期，科技股仍然面临AI 相关担忧引 发的剧烈波动。截至收盘，道指涨48.95点，涨幅0.10%，报49500.93点，纳指跌0.22%，报22546.67 点，标普500指数涨0.05%，报6836.17点。 本周道指累计下跌1.28%，纳指跌1.49%，标普500指数跌1.45%。 标普500指数本周录得去年11月以来最大单周跌幅，道琼斯工业平均指数也将迎来去年11月以来最深 周度跌幅。芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）早盘一度触及 22.40 点高位，突破20的关键心理关 口。 【热门股表现】 2026.02. 14 本文字数：1770，阅读时长大约3分钟 纽约斯巴达资本证券公司首席市场经济学家彼得・卡迪略表示："归根结底，这是一份不错的数据。 它表明我们虽然未达到美联储2%的通胀目标，但通胀并未加速，或许在关税带来的通胀压力方面， 我们开始看到一丝曙光。压力依然存在，但正在缓和。" Osaic首席市场策略师菲尔・布兰卡托表示："对市场和即将上任的美联储主席凯文・沃什来说，这应 是利好消息。这虽只是一个月的数据，但如果趋 ...

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over excessive AI spending persist in the market, leading to significant stock declines among the "Big Seven" tech companies [1] Group 1: Company Impact - Investors are strongly resisting aggressive AI investment plans from tech giants, resulting in a sharp drop in stock prices [1] - Amazon's stock has been on a continuous decline, with Wall Street worried that its large-scale investments may lead to negative free cash flow by 2026, making it the first cloud business giant to experience this [1]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over excessive AI spending have led to significant stock declines among major tech companies, particularly Amazon, which is facing fears of becoming the first cloud giant with negative free cash flow by 2026 [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Amazon's stock has fallen for nine consecutive trading days, marking its longest losing streak since 2006 and entering a technical bear market with a drop of over 20% from its peak [3]. - As of the latest close, Amazon's stock price has decreased nearly 23% from its historical closing price of $254 on November 3, now trading below $200 [3]. - Microsoft also entered a bear market earlier this year, with its stock down over 25% from its historical closing price of $542.07 on October 28 [3]. Group 2: AI Investment Plans - Amazon plans to invest $200 billion in AI capital expenditures by 2026, the highest among the four major cloud service providers, contributing to a total expected AI capital expenditure of $650 billion across Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Google [3]. - Despite a strong 24% growth in Amazon Web Services (AWS) for the fourth quarter, investor skepticism remains regarding the alignment of Amazon's AI strategy with its cloud business growth [3]. Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Some analysts believe the market's negative sentiment towards Amazon's AI investments is overblown, arguing that the company is strategically investing in future cloud computing capabilities [4]. - Deutsche Bank analyst Lee Horowitz suggests that the risk of underinvestment is greater than that of overinvestment for Amazon, and he has set a target price of $290 for Amazon's stock [4]. - William Blair analyst Dylan Carden acknowledges the risks associated with increased capital spending but sees it as a sign of Amazon's competitive advantage in rapidly scaling its AWS infrastructure [4]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The recent sell-off in tech stocks reflects a growing divide among the "Seven Giants," with concerns about AI spending impacting companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta more severely than others like Google [5][6]. - Google has managed to avoid the worst of the sell-off due to its vertically integrated technology system, which provides a buffer against excessive spending concerns [6]. - The upcoming Nvidia earnings report on February 25 is anticipated to be a key catalyst for the AI sector, potentially revealing whether the AI boom is cooling off [7].

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over excessive AI spending have led to significant stock declines among the "Seven Giants," particularly Amazon, which is facing fears of becoming the first cloud giant with negative free cash flow by 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Amazon's Stock Performance - Amazon's stock has fallen for nine consecutive trading days, marking its longest losing streak since 2006 and officially entering a technical bear market, down nearly 23% from its historical closing price of $254 on November 3 [2]. - The company's substantial AI investment plans have not been well-received by investors, leading to skepticism about the alignment of its AI strategy with cloud business growth [2][3]. Group 2: AI Capital Expenditure - Amazon, along with Microsoft, Meta, and Google, is projected to spend a total of $650 billion on AI capital expenditures by 2026, with Amazon's share being $200 billion, the highest among global cloud service giants [2]. - This unexpected capital expenditure has overshadowed Amazon Web Services' (AWS) impressive 24% growth in the fourth quarter, raising concerns that such large investments could result in negative free cash flow [2]. Group 3: Analyst Perspectives - Some analysts believe that the market's pessimism towards Amazon is overblown, arguing that the company is not becoming more capital-intensive but is instead investing in future cloud computing capabilities to drive digital transformation [3]. - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and William Blair acknowledge the risks associated with increased capital spending but suggest that it may reflect Amazon's inherent advantages in upgrading its existing AWS infrastructure [3]. Group 4: Support for Amazon - Notable investors, such as Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Capital, have disclosed holdings in Amazon, indicating confidence in the company's long-term prospects despite current market challenges [4]. - The fund's report highlights expectations for AWS to double its data center capacity by 2027, driven by demand from AI inference business expansion [4]. Group 5: Market Trends and Comparisons - The recent sell-off in tech stocks has highlighted a divergence in performance among the "Seven Giants," with concerns about AI spending impacting companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta more severely than others like Google [5][6]. - The upcoming earnings report from Nvidia is anticipated to be a key catalyst for the AI sector, potentially revealing whether the AI boom is cooling and if Nvidia can deliver substantial returns on its large customer investments [6].

当地时间2月13日，美国劳工统计局公布的CPI数据显示当前通胀水平较为温和，推动市场对美联储6月降息的预期升温。受此影响，贵金属价格明显走 高。截至当日收盘，美国三大股指涨跌不一，大型科技股整体承压，国际油价小幅上行。 美股收盘涨跌不一 受通胀数据影响，当地时间2月13日，美国股市表现分化。Wind数据显示，截至当日收盘，三大股指涨跌不一，道指上涨0.1%，标普500指数上涨0.05%， 纳指下跌0.22%。 美国劳工统计局当日公布的数据显示，1月CPI环比上涨0.2%、同比上涨回落至2.4%。随着通胀压力边际缓解，根据芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具，市 场对美联储6月降息的预期有所增强。 大型科技股整体承压。万得美国科技七巨头指数下跌1.31%。其中，苹果、英伟达跌超2%，Meta、谷歌母公司Alphabet-C跌逾1%，亚马逊、微软小幅下 跌，特斯拉微涨0.09%。 降息预期推动贵金属价格走高 降息预期升温叠加避险需求回升，推动贵金属价格走高。截至北京时间6:03，伦敦金现货价格涨2.41%，报5042.808美元/盎司，盘中最高报5046.261美元/ 盎司；COMEX黄金期货价格涨2.3%，报5062 ...

恐慌指数VIX重回20关口。 *三大股指分化，纳指跌0.22%； 【热门股表现】 *中长期美债收益率大幅回落，2年期美债创四年低位； *美国1月CPI略好于预期，提振降息前景。 周五美股涨跌互现，通胀数据降温支撑了市场对美联储降息的预期，科技股仍然面临AI 相关担忧引发 的剧烈波动。截至收盘，道指涨48.95点，涨幅0.10%，报49500.93点，纳指跌0.22%，报22546.67点，标 普500指数涨0.05%，报6836.17点。 本周道指累计下跌1.28%，纳指跌1.49%，标普500指数跌1.45%。 | 道琼斯工业平均 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 49500.93 | 22546.67 | 6836.17 | | +48.95 +0.10% -50.48 -0.22% +3.41 +0.05% | | | 标普500指数本周录得去年11月以来最大单周跌幅，道琼斯工业平均指数也将迎来去年11月以来最深周 度跌幅。芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）早盘一度触及 22.40 点高位，突破20的关键心理关口。 芝加哥商品交易所集团（CME Group） ...

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.10% at 49,500.93 points, the S&P 500 up 0.05% at 6,836.17 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.22% at 22,546.67 points [2] - Concerns over AI disruption led to market volatility, affecting various sectors including software, real estate, trucking, and financial services [5] - Notable declines included Charles Schwab down 10.8%, Morgan Stanley down 4.9%, and software company Workday down 11% [5] Inflation Data - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 2.4% year-over-year increase in January CPI, with a 0.2% month-over-month rise, both below market expectations [2] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.5% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, aligning with market expectations [2] Company News - SpaceX is reportedly considering a dual-class share structure for its upcoming IPO, allowing certain shareholders, including Elon Musk, to maintain control despite lower ownership stakes [6] - Anthropic appointed former General Motors executive Chris Liddell to its board as it prepares for a potential IPO in 2026, indicating openness to going public by the end of this year [9] - Following the merger with xAI, Musk's team is exploring financing options to reduce high-interest debt, which has accumulated to nearly $18 billion, in preparation for a potential IPO [10] - Moderna reported fourth-quarter revenue of $678 million, a 30% year-over-year decline, with a loss of $2.11 per share compared to a loss of $2.91 per share in the same period last year [11]

财报分析微软2026财年第二季度财报显示，总收入813亿美元，同比增长17%，Non-GAAP EPS为4.14美 元，超市场预期。但Azure增速固定汇率下为38%，略低于前期，且资本支出375亿美元引发对利润率的 忧虑。 机构观点分析师对微软前景存在分歧。Stifel于2月初将评级从"买入"下调至"持有"，目标价392美元，担 忧资本开支压力。摩根士丹利则看好微软AI集成能力，列为被错杀股。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 经济观察网根据智通财经2026年2月14日报道，美国联邦贸易委员会(FTC)正加强微软的反垄断调查，涉 及云计算和AI领域，调查微软是否通过许可规则设置壁垒限制竞争。这一消息在资本开支压力背景下 可能进一步压制股价，微软股价目前处于去年4月以来低点。 股票近期走势微软股价近期波动较大。2026年2月9日至13日，美股微软(MSFT.OQ)股价先涨后跌再反 弹，2月13日收盘报403.92美元，当日涨0.52%。年初至今股价下跌16.48%，20日跌幅为11.55%，反映市 场对AI资本开支和增长放缓的担忧。 ...