Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the European private equity (PE) market, with expectations of continued growth in 2026 due to increased capital inflows and a more predictable macroeconomic environment [18]. Core Insights - The European PE market achieved a record year in 2025, with total transaction value increasing by 14.4% year-on-year and transaction volume rising by 12.8%, driven by improved macroeconomic conditions and renewed investor confidence [4][10]. - The share of mega-deals (transactions over €1 billion) rose to 31.9% of total transaction value, reflecting a return of sponsor confidence and risk appetite [19][22]. - The exit environment showed signs of improvement, with exit values increasing by 10% year-on-year, although still below the peak levels of 2021 [66][67]. Summary by Sections Transactions - In 2025, the European PE market recorded a historic year with transaction values reaching €645.3 billion, supported by favorable monetary policies and a stable macroeconomic backdrop [10][19]. - The average transaction size increased by 32.8%, from €238.1 million to €316.2 million, indicating a willingness to underwrite larger deals [20][22]. - The UK and Ireland accounted for 31.6% of total European transaction value, maintaining a significant lead in the PE market [38]. Exits - The total exit value in Europe reached €1,610 billion in 2025, marking a 10% increase from the previous year, although still 27.6% lower than the peak in 2021 [66][67]. - The second half of 2025 saw a notable improvement in exit momentum, with exit values in H2 being double that of H1 [67]. - The median holding period for PE portfolio companies decreased to 5.8 years, indicating improved exit mechanisms within portfolios [70]. Fundraising - Fundraising in the European PE market slowed in 2025, with a total of €80.8 billion raised, reflecting a trend of decreasing fund closures and stricter capital conditions [6][92]. - The concentration of fundraising efforts shifted towards established managers, with experienced firms accounting for 85.6% of the capital raised [6]. - The UK and Ireland remained the primary fundraising hubs, capturing nearly half of the total capital raised in Europe [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of January 26, 2026 [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side variables, particularly the operating rates of raw material drugs, and highlights the potential for price recovery in the antibiotic market due to changes in competition and supply dynamics [2] - Multi-departmental policy support is enhancing the value positioning of pharmacies, transforming them from mere sales points to comprehensive health service platforms [3] - The trend of Chinese innovative drugs going global is gaining momentum, with significant licensing deals and the need for continuous clinical data validation to support long-term investment confidence [4] - Major companies are increasingly investing in the small nucleic acid field, which is expected to accelerate the development of the supporting industrial chain [5] - A new pricing system for GLP-1 drugs is forming in China, with expectations for market growth driven by a large patient population [6] - The report highlights the market value of oral autoimmune drugs, with promising clinical trial results for new treatments [7] Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.23 percentage points in the last week, ranking 27th among 31 sectors [20] 2. Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The pharmaceutical sector index increased by 4.98% over the past month, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.21 percentage points [37] - The current PE (TTM) for the pharmaceutical sector is 38.51, above the five-year historical average of 31.06 [43] 3. Recent Research Achievements - The report includes various deep-dive studies on topics such as the growth of the blood products industry and the impact of policies on inhalation formulations [45] 4. Recent Industry Policies and News - Recent policies include the approval of numerous medical device registrations and the promotion of high-quality development in the pharmaceutical retail sector [46][48]

朱海鸾表示，创新药在实际应用中实现"进院、能用、用得起、用得规范、用得可持续"，对支付制度衔接、医院运行管理、证据评估和风险控制等方面提出 了更高要求。当前，基本医疗保险、商业健康保险（含惠民保）等多种保障方式并行发展，但在功能定位、支付规则、数据共享和评估机制等方面仍存在衔 接不足的情况，一定程度上影响了创新药规范落地和可及性提升，也加大了医院端的运行与管理压力。 新京报讯（记者王卡拉）近年来，我国医药科技创新成果持续涌现，创新药在重大疾病治疗和人民健康保障中的作用日益凸显。与此同时，"如何让创新药 更好地落地"成为多方关注的焦点。在北京两会上，北京市政协委员、赛诺菲大中华区副总裁朱海鸾提交了《关于完善多层次医疗保障协同机制，推动创新 药更好落地》的提案，建议完善顶层设计，加强多层次医保协同，打通"最后一公里"。 18 北京市政协委员、赛诺菲大中华区副总裁朱海鸾。新京报记者 王贵彬 摄 "北京医疗资源和创新要素高度集聚，在多层次医疗保障体系建设和医疗服务治理方面具备良好基础，有条件在多层次医疗保障协同机制方面先行探索、形 成可复制、可推广的经验。"朱海鸾表示，完善相关协同机制，对于提升创新药可及性、促进医疗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment framework for the pharmaceutical industry ETF in 2026, emphasizing a dual-driven approach of demand and innovation to navigate the market recovery and differentiation after a prolonged bear market since 2021 [29]. Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index decreased by 0.38%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.24 percentage points, ranking 25th among 30 primary industries [9]. - The top ten stocks by increase this week included ST Changyao, Hualan Biological Engineering, and Kangzhong Medical, with gains ranging from 6% to 70.38% [9]. - The bottom ten stocks by decrease included Kain Technology and Aidi Pharmaceutical, with declines of up to 45% [9]. Industry and Stock Events - The article highlights a shift in funding from active to passive management in the pharmaceutical sector, with passive funds becoming a significant part of the long-term funding structure [18]. - The article notes that the innovation drug sector is expected to see a transition from quantity to quality, focusing on differentiated products and internationalization by 2025 [12]. - The medical device sector is experiencing a recovery in bidding volumes, particularly in imaging equipment, and is benefiting from policies promoting home medical devices and accelerated overseas expansion [12]. - The article discusses the favorable conditions for the blood products industry, with relaxed approval for plasma stations and a clear growth path for the industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [13]. Investment Strategy - The article proposes a dynamic ETF configuration framework for the pharmaceutical sector, categorized into three layers: a core base of broad-based ETFs, a dual-driven layer focusing on innovative drugs and medical devices, and a defensive layer using traditional Chinese medicine and overseas biotech [22]. - The article emphasizes the importance of a systematic approach to ETF selection, considering liquidity, tracking quality, and cost [24]. - It suggests that the pharmaceutical sector is entering a new growth cycle driven by rigid demand and continuous innovation, necessitating a more structured and rhythmic ETF combination strategy [22].

Group 1 - The core economic data for Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area (Beijing EDA) in 2025 shows a GDP of 401.21 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 10.7%, leading among national-level economic development zones [1] - The main driving force behind this rapid economic growth is the continuous breakthroughs in leading industries, including the full-scale production of BOE's sixth-generation semiconductor display devices and the launch of the new pure electric CLA at Beijing Benz [1] - In 2025, the industrial output value of Beijing EDA grew by 12% year-on-year, with key industries such as high-end automobiles and new energy smart vehicles achieving an output value of 311.32 billion yuan, up 17.4% [1] Group 2 - The productive service industries, represented by information services and finance, have shown significant empowering effects, with information services generating revenue of 130.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [2] - Investment in fixed assets in Beijing EDA has maintained a scale of over 100 billion yuan for three consecutive years, with major projects like the Sanofi insulin raw material project and the large commercial complex Wanxianghui accelerating their implementation [2] - In 2025, the R&D expenses of key large and medium-sized enterprises in Beijing EDA increased by 31.8% year-on-year, leading the city in growth [2] Group 3 - The Beijing EDA aims to establish itself as a model for new productive forces and an international high-end industrial complex, focusing on building a modern industrial system and nurturing trillion-yuan industrial clusters [3] - The area is set to kick off several key projects in the new year, including the new drug R&D and industrialization base project by Shouyao Holdings and the headquarters of Aerospace Intelligent Manufacturing [3]

Core Insights - Novavax (NVAX) has entered a non-exclusive license agreement with Pfizer (PFE), allowing Pfizer to utilize its Matrix-M adjuvant technology for up to two disease areas, indicating the growing recognition of Matrix-M's versatility in vaccine development [1] Financial Highlights - Novavax will receive an upfront payment of $30 million from Pfizer and has the potential to earn up to $500 million in development and commercial milestone payments, along with tiered, high, mid-single-digit royalties on net sales of products incorporating Matrix-M [2][6] - Over the past year, NVAX's shares have decreased by 7.1%, while the industry has seen a rise of 15.1% [3] Matrix-M Adjuvant Technology - Matrix-M is a proprietary, saponin-based adjuvant technology from Novavax designed to enhance immune responses to vaccines, currently used in a globally approved vaccine and as a key component of Novavax's COVID-19 vaccine, Nuvaxovid/Covovax [4] - The University of Oxford has utilized Matrix-M to develop the R21 malaria vaccine, with commercialization rights licensed to the Serum Institute of India, and several other partners are evaluating Matrix-M for malaria vaccine development [7] Licensing Agreements - Novavax has a co-exclusive licensing agreement with Sanofi (SNY) that includes a non-exclusive license for Matrix-M in vaccine products, with the agreement amended in September 2025 to expand Sanofi's license for its pandemic influenza vaccine candidate program, potentially earning Novavax up to $210 million plus mid-single-digit royalties [8] - In 2023, Matrix-M technology was also licensed to the Bill & Melinda Gates Medical Research Institute and SK Bioscience for preclinical vaccine research, supporting global vaccine discovery efforts [9]

2026 年 1 月 21 日 总量研究 美国政府停摆：阴影逐步消散 ——解构美国系列第十七篇 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：周欣平 执业证书编号：S0930525070005 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 相关研报 特朗普如何激活美国地产：现实与挑战—— 解构美国系列第十六篇（2025-12-27） 美国政府重新开门，市场为何"不买账"？ ——解构美国系列第十五篇（2025-11-18） 美元指数突破 100 后，强势美元将维持多 久？——解构美国系列第十四篇（2025-11- 06） 减税法案顺利落地，可以对冲关税压力吗？ ——解构美国系列第十三篇（2025-07-04） 近期美债收益率为何再次上行？——解构美 国系列第十二篇（2025-05-16） 特朗普释放和解信号，中国掌握谈判主导权 ——《大国博弈》系列第八十三篇（2025- 04-27） 关税互搏，中美经济韧性谁更强？——《大 国博弈》系列第八十二篇（2025-04-10） 特朗普升级全球关税战，对 ...

Core Insights - Merck (MRK) is experiencing significant challenges with its second-largest product, Gardasil, which has seen a decline in sales starting in 2024 after consistent growth until 2022 [1][3] Sales Performance - In the first nine months of 2025, Gardasil sales fell by 40% year-over-year to $4.20 billion, primarily due to weak demand in China amid an economic slowdown [2][9] - The company has temporarily halted Gardasil shipments in China to manage excess inventory levels at its partner Zhifei [3][9] - Sales of other vaccines, including ProQuad, M-M-R II, Varivax, RotaTeq, and Pneumovax 23, also declined during the same period [5][9] New Products and Competition - Merck's new RSV antibody, Enflonsia, was approved in the U.S. in June 2025 and generated $79 million in sales in Q3 2025, although it faces competition from AstraZeneca/Sanofi's Beyfortus, which recorded €1.09 billion in sales, up 33.8% year-over-year [6][7] - The company anticipates that sales of Enflonsia will be a focal point in the upcoming Q4 2025 results [6] Market Performance and Valuation - Over the past six months, Merck's shares have increased by 37.2%, outperforming the industry average of 23.6% [8] - Merck's current price/earnings ratio stands at 13.54, which is lower than the industry average of 17.72 but higher than its five-year mean of 12.48 [10] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Merck's 2025 earnings per share has slightly decreased from $8.97 to $8.96, while the estimate for 2026 has dropped from $9.28 to $7.92 over the past 60 days [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the delay in the FDA review process for Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 drug, orforglipron, which was initially expected to be approved by late March but has now been pushed to April 10, 2024, impacting market expectations significantly [6][8]. Group 1: FDA Review Process - The FDA has extended the review period for several drugs, including orforglipron, which was anticipated to be a groundbreaking oral weight loss medication [6]. - The National Priority Voucher program aims to expedite the review process from 10-12 months to 1-2 months for drugs addressing significant medical needs, but safety and efficacy standards remain stringent [7]. - Other drugs facing similar review delays include Sanofi's Tzield, Disc Medicine's bitopertin, and Boehringer Ingelheim's zongertinib, indicating a broader trend in regulatory scrutiny [7]. Group 2: Market Implications - The delay in orforglipron's review alters the competitive landscape, especially against Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, which has already been launched and is gaining market share [8]. - Eli Lilly may need to rely on its existing injectable products to maintain market presence while awaiting the outcome of orforglipron's review [8]. - The situation underscores the importance of regulatory compliance and the challenges faced by pharmaceutical companies even in an environment that encourages innovation [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry as of January 19, 2026 [1] Core Insights - 2025 marked a significant year for Chinese innovative drugs going global, with a total transaction amount of $135.655 billion, including $7 billion in upfront payments and 157 deals, setting historical highs. The trend continues into 2026, with notable licensing agreements from companies like Yilian Biotech and Rongchang Biotech, indicating strong global competitiveness for Chinese innovative drugs [2] - Major companies are increasingly investing in the small nucleic acid field, with significant acquisitions and clinical approvals. For instance, China National Pharmaceutical Group acquired Hangzhou Hejiya Biopharmaceutical for 1.2 billion RMB, while international firms like Novartis and GSK are also advancing in this area [3] - The GLP-1 market is expected to grow despite new pricing systems, with ongoing collaborations and new product launches anticipated in 2026. The market for GLP-1 drugs is projected to remain robust due to the large patient population for weight loss and diabetes [4] - The oral autoimmune drug market is gaining attention, with promising results from Takeda's new TYK2 inhibitor for psoriasis. Other domestic companies are also advancing in this space, exploring new targets for oral small molecules [5] - The brain-computer interface sector is poised for industrialization, with companies like Neuralink set to produce devices in 2026. Domestic advancements and regulatory support are enhancing the potential for this technology in medical applications [6] - The ZAP-X radiation therapy device is expected to capture a significant market share in China, with rapid growth projected in non-invasive tumor radiation treatment, driven by increasing clinical recognition and adoption [8] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The pharmaceutical sector is witnessing a resurgence in interest towards innovative drugs, with a notable increase in the innovative drug index by 8.97% since early January 2026, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.77 percentage points [2] Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - **Yuekang Pharmaceutical** and **Sunshine Nuohua** in the small nucleic acid space - **Yahong Pharmaceutical** and **Yifang Biotechnology** in the autoimmune sector - **Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical** in the GLP-1 market - **Baiyang Pharmaceutical** for ZAP-X radiation therapy - **Meihao Medical** for brain-computer interface technology [10] Market Opportunities - The non-invasive tumor radiation treatment market is projected to grow from 27.2 billion RMB in 2018 to 59.4 billion RMB by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.9% [8]