Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [31]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in passenger vehicle demand due to the implementation of subsidy policies, with a positive outlook for the first quarter of 2026. Key players in the high-end electric vehicle segment include Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall Motors, BAIC Blue Valley, and others [21]. - In the heavy truck segment, 2025 saw a total wholesale of 1.144 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. The report anticipates a slight growth in domestic sales for 2026, projecting 800,000 to 850,000 units sold [26]. - The bus market is expected to see growth in 2026, with a conservative estimate of 40,000 units sold, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase, driven by the continuation of subsidy policies [25]. - The motorcycle market is projected to grow by 14% in 2026, with total sales expected to reach 19.38 million units, including a significant increase in large-displacement motorcycles [22]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The report expects a recovery in passenger vehicle demand in Q1 2026, driven by subsidy policies. Key companies to watch include Jianghuai Automobile and Geely, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles [21]. Heavy Trucks - In 2025, the heavy truck market saw a total of 1.144 million units sold, with domestic sales reaching 799,000 units. The report forecasts 800,000 to 850,000 units for 2026, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [26]. Buses - The bus market is projected to grow in 2026, with an expected 40% increase in sales to 40,000 units, supported by ongoing subsidy policies [25]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is expected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow by 31% [22].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [31]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in passenger vehicle demand due to the implementation of subsidy policies, with a positive outlook for the first quarter of 2026. Key players in the high-end electric vehicle segment include Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall Motors, BAIC Blue Valley, and others [21]. - In the heavy truck segment, 2025 saw a total wholesale of 1.144 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. The report anticipates a slight growth in domestic sales for 2026, projecting 800,000 to 850,000 units sold [26]. - The bus market is expected to see growth in 2026, with a conservative estimate of 40,000 units sold, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase, driven by the continuation of subsidy policies [25]. - The motorcycle market is projected to grow by 14% in 2026, with total sales expected to reach 19.38 million units, including a significant increase in large-displacement motorcycles [22]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The report expects a recovery in passenger vehicle demand in Q1 2026 due to subsidy policies, with a focus on high-end electric vehicles and established export-oriented companies [21]. Heavy Trucks - In 2025, the heavy truck market saw a total of 1.144 million units sold, with domestic sales at 799,000 units and exports at 341,000 units. The report forecasts domestic sales of 800,000 to 850,000 units for 2026, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [26]. Buses - The bus market is projected to grow in 2026, with an expected sales volume of 40,000 units, a 40% increase from the previous year, supported by ongoing subsidy policies [25]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is expected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase year-on-year, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow by 31% [22].

Group 1: Passenger Vehicle Insights - The industry subsidy policy has been implemented, and there is optimism for a recovery in passenger vehicle demand in Q1 2026, with a strong outlook for the passenger vehicle sector [3][27] - For the domestic market, focus on high-end electric vehicle companies that are less sensitive to policy changes, such as Jianghuai Automobile, and those expected to see growth in high-end offerings like Geely, Great Wall, BAIC Blue Valley, Seres, and Li Auto [3][27] - For exports, prioritize leading companies with established overseas systems and proven execution capabilities, recommending BYD, Great Wall, Chery, as well as Leap Motor, Xpeng, SAIC Motor, and Changan [3][27] Group 2: Heavy Truck Insights - In 2025, the wholesale volume reached 1.144 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%, with domestic sales of 799,000 units (+32.8%) and exports of 341,000 units (+17.2%), exceeding initial market expectations [4][32] - The estimated number of operational heavy trucks meeting National IV standards or below was 690,000 at the beginning of 2025, expected to be reduced to 450,000-500,000 by the end of the year, with a total of 210,000 units eliminated throughout 2025 [4][32] - For 2026, domestic heavy truck sales are projected to reach 800,000-850,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3%, with continued recommendations for leading companies such as China National Heavy Duty Truck, Weichai Power, Foton Motor, FAW Jiefang, and CIMC Vehicles [4][32] Group 3: Bus Insights - The implementation of the vehicle replacement policy in 2026 is slightly better than expected, with the continuation of subsidy levels rather than a reduction [4][32] - In 2025, bus sales were 29,000 units, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, indicating a gap from the reasonable replacement midpoint [4][32] - For 2026, a conservative estimate of 40,000 bus sales is projected, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase, supported by the number of buses over eight years old awaiting replacement [4][32] Group 4: Motorcycle Insights - The motorcycle industry is expected to see total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with large-displacement motorcycles projected at 1.26 million units (+31%) [5][29] - Domestic sales of large-displacement motorcycles are expected to grow slightly to 430,000 units (+5%) in 2026, while exports are anticipated to reach 830,000 units (+50%) [5][29] - The focus remains on leading companies benefiting from the sustained growth in large-displacement and export markets, recommending Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [5][29]

记者丨 张旭 编辑丨周上祺 近日，31个省份2025年外贸数据陆续公布。 2025年，全国进出口总值达45.47万亿元， 增长3.8%，外贸总值突破万亿元的省份增至 9个。 图/21世纪经济报道 从总值来看， 广东凭借9万亿元的成绩继续领跑全部省份。 江苏、浙江、上海、山东、北京分列第二至第六位，外贸总值在3万亿元 至6万亿元之间。 安徽以10135.57亿元的成绩，成为中部首个、全国第九个外贸总值破万亿元省份。 从同比增速来看， 共有17个省份跑赢3.8%的"全国线" ，21个省份实现同比正增长，新疆增长19.9%排名全国第一。而在外贸大省 中，安徽以17.3%增速领跑。曾经的"中部外贸第一省"河南，则以14.1%的增速，位居十大外贸省份第二。2025年，河南进出口总值 达9356.73亿元，有望在2026年突破万亿元大关。 对于广东外贸成绩单，广东外语外贸大学广东国际战略研究院执行院长、教授韩永辉向21世纪经济报道记者表示，广东拥有全国最 完备的制造业体系和产业链配套能力，这是其外贸长期领跑的根本支撑。民营经济活跃且外贸主体持续扩容，形成强大的市场韧 性。 此外，广东在跨境电商、海外仓、保税物流等新型贸易 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cummins announced leadership changes in its Power Systems Division to enhance business growth and organizational capabilities, effective February 1, 2026 [1][5]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Xiang Yongdong, the current General Manager of Cummins Power Systems Division in China, will become the Global Supply Chain Executive Director, recognizing his contributions to nearly 10% annual compound sales growth during his tenure [3][5]. - Yuan Jun, the current General Manager of Chongqing Cummins Engine Co., will succeed Xiang as the General Manager of Cummins Power Systems Division in China, reporting directly to Nathan Stoner, Vice President of Cummins Global and Chairman of Cummins China [5]. Group 2: Responsibilities and Achievements - In his new role, Xiang will lead key supply chain initiatives and collaborate with local and global stakeholders to drive product localization, ensuring alignment with strategic directions set by business line and global supply chain leaders [3][5]. - Yuan Jun will oversee overall operations, strategic planning, business development, team management, and customer relationship building in the China Power Systems Division, leveraging his extensive operational and management experience [5]. - Yuan has a strong track record in revenue generation, production capacity, technological innovation, and team building, having held various significant positions since joining Cummins in 2009 [5].

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600686 | 金成汽车 | 19.06 | -10.01% | 19.77万 | 3.86 Z | | 600418 | 江淮汽车 | 50.60 | -2.62% | 54.35万 | 27.49亿 | | 000957 | 中通客车 | 11.64 | -1.69% | C 17.77万 | 2.07亿 | | 600006 | 东风股份 | 7.12 | -1.66% | 12 32.69万 | 2.34亿 | | 600375 | 汉马科技 | 6.34 | -1.55% | 64.67万 | 4.16 乙 | | 600303 | 曙光股份 | 3.32 | -1.19% | 22.59万 | 7484.01万 | | 000868 | 安凯客车 | 5.01 | -1.18% | 12.94万 | 6477.12万 | | 600166 | 福田汽车 | 3.19 | -0.93% | 182.08万 | 5.79亿 | | 000 ...

21世纪经济报道 记者张旭 北京报道 近日，31个省份2025年外贸数据陆续公布。2025年，全国进出口总值达45.47万亿元，增长3.8%，外贸总值突破万亿元的省份增 至9个。 从总值来看，广东凭借9万亿元的成绩继续领跑全部省份。江苏、浙江、上海、山东、北京分列第二至第六位，外贸总值在3万 亿元至6万亿元之间。安徽以10135.57亿元的成绩，成为中部首个、全国第九个外贸总值破万亿元省份。 从同比增速来看，共有17个省份跑赢3.8%的"全国线"，21个省份实现同比正增长，新疆增长19.9%排名全国第一。而在外贸大 省中，安徽以17.3%增速领跑。曾经的"中部外贸第一省"河南，则以14.1%的增速，位居十大外贸省份第二。2025年，河南进出 口总值达9356.73亿元，有望在2026年突破万亿元大关。 对于广东外贸成绩单，广东外语外贸大学广东国际战略研究院执行院长、教授韩永辉向21世纪经济报道记者表示，广东拥有全 国最完备的制造业体系和产业链配套能力，这是其外贸长期领跑的根本支撑。民营经济活跃且外贸主体持续扩容，形成强大的 市场韧性。 此外，广东在跨境电商、海外仓、保税物流等新型贸易方式上领先全国，同时依托粤 ...

Core Viewpoint - In December 2025, China's bus exports reached a record high, with total exports exceeding 10,000 units for the first time, marking a significant year-end surge in the industry [1][4]. Export Performance - In 2025, a total of 78,313 buses were exported, a 26.68% increase from 61,820 units in 2024 [1][11]. - December 2025 saw exports of 11,975 buses, a year-on-year increase of 63.73% and a month-on-month increase of 112.51% [1][4]. Market Segmentation - All segments (large, medium, and light buses) experienced significant growth in December 2025, with large buses exporting 5,070 units (up 35.89%), medium buses 4,028 units (up 214.44%), and light buses 2,877 units (up 24.98%) [3][4]. - The overall export volume in December was nearly double that of November, indicating a strong recovery after two months of decline [4][8]. Company Rankings - Yutong Bus led the export rankings with 17,149 units, a 22.49% increase from 14,000 units in 2024 [10][11]. - Xiamen Jinlong followed with 12,255 units, a remarkable 64.90% increase, while Ankai Bus saw a dramatic rise of 152.84% to 5,034 units [10][12]. Segment Leaders - In the seating bus category, Xiamen Jinlong topped the list with 9,953 units exported, a 57.63% increase, while Yutong followed with 8,392 units [17][18]. - For public buses, Yutong also led with 8,460 units, a 37.61% increase, followed by BYD with 4,173 units [26][27]. Future Outlook - The bus export market is expected to remain strong in 2026, with potential for further growth as the industry recovers from previous declines [8][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [6] Core Insights - The automotive market is experiencing significant negative growth, with retail sales of passenger vehicles dropping by 28% year-on-year in the first half of January 2026, and wholesale sales declining by 35% [1][19] - The report emphasizes the need for supportive policies to stimulate market recovery and highlights the potential for growth in the overseas electric vehicle market due to favorable policies in countries like Canada and Germany [3][4] - The report suggests that the domestic market may rebound following the implementation of supportive policies, which could positively impact leading brands [4] Summary by Sections Market Overview - As of January 1-18, 2026, retail sales of passenger vehicles in China reached 679,000 units, a decrease of 28% compared to the same period last year, while wholesale sales totaled 740,000 units, down 35% year-on-year [1][19] - In the same period, retail sales of new energy vehicles were 312,000 units, reflecting a 16% decline year-on-year, and wholesale sales were 348,000 units, down 23% [1][19] Policy Developments - Canada announced plans to import 49,000 electric vehicles from China, significantly reducing tariffs from 100% to 6.1% [3] - Germany introduced a new subsidy program for electric vehicles, offering up to 6,000 euros to families purchasing new electric cars, effective from January 1, 2026 [3][44] - The UK government has launched a substantial subsidy program for electric trucks, with a total budget of 318 million pounds [48] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the potential for Chinese new energy vehicles to expand into overseas markets, driven by favorable international policies [4] - It suggests that the recovery of the domestic automotive market could benefit leading brands significantly [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [6] Core Insights - The automotive market is currently experiencing significant negative growth, with retail sales of passenger vehicles down 28% year-on-year for the first half of January 2026, and wholesale sales down 35% [1][19] - There is an expectation for policy support to stimulate a rebound in the market, particularly focusing on the impact of domestic policies and overseas electric vehicle (EV) opportunities [2][4] - Recent international policies favoring electric vehicles, such as Canada's reduction of import tariffs on Chinese EVs and Germany's new subsidy program for electric vehicle purchases, are seen as positive developments for the industry [3][44][45] Summary by Sections Market Performance - From January 1 to 18, 2026, the national retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 679,000 units, a decrease of 28% compared to the same period last year, while wholesale sales totaled 740,000 units, down 35% year-on-year [1][19] - In the same period, the retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) were 312,000 units, reflecting a 16% decline year-on-year, with wholesale sales at 348,000 units, down 23% [1][19] Policy Developments - Canada announced it will import 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles and significantly reduce tariffs from 100% to 6.1%, which is expected to enhance trade opportunities for Chinese manufacturers [3][40] - Germany's new subsidy program offers up to €6,000 for families purchasing electric vehicles, applicable to various types of electric cars, and is open to all manufacturers, including Chinese brands [3][44][45] - The UK government has introduced a substantial subsidy plan for electric trucks, with a total budget of £318 million, aimed at promoting the adoption of electric commercial vehicles [3][48] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on the potential recovery of the automotive market driven by domestic policy support and the favorable international environment for Chinese NEVs [4] - The emergence of financial incentives and low-interest financing options in the market is expected to stimulate consumer demand and enhance brand loyalty [36][39]